Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

Highlights
US Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.5 % in Q1 2013. German Import Prices declined by 0.1 percent in the last month. US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment increased to 76.4-mark in April. Asian markets are trading on a positive note on the back of expectations that central banks over the world will continue with its loose monetary policy programs. US Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.5 percent in Q1 of 2013 as against a rise of 0.4 percent in Q4 of 2012. Advance GDP Price Index increased by 1.2 percent in first quarter of 2013 from rise of 1 percent a quarter ago. Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment increased by 4.1 points to 76.4-mark in April as compared to rise of 72.3-level in March. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations was at 3.1 percent in April with respect to 3 percent in last month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5871.5 19286.7 14712.55 1582.2 16565.3 1944.6 58497.8 13884.1 93.00 1453.60 2375.80 7038.00 102.09 Prev. day -0.8 -0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -2.3 0.0

as on April 26, 2013 WoW 1.5 1.4 1.1 2.6 5.1 2.0 8.5 -0.1 5.7 2.3 1.9 1.0 -0.1 MoM 3.3 2.4 1.0 1.2 6.5 -2.6 6.6 12.3 -4.2 -7.7 -12.7 -10.3 YoY 12.9 5.5 11.4 13.0 14.2 0.1 -5.2 45.2 -11.0 -12.4 -24.2 -15.5 1.0

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.3 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable new home sales, jobless claims along with rise in GDP and consumer sentiments data from US also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive note which acted as a negative factor for the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 82.46 and closed at 82.571 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index 82.57 54.38 54.29 54.29 Prev. day -0.3 -0.5 0.14 0.16 WoW -0.3 -0.8 0.48 0.48

as on April 26, 2013 MoM -0.7 -0.2 -0.76 -0.75 YoY 3.9 -3.6 2.62 2.62

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.7 percent. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from crude oil and gold importers. However, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in the currency. Further, forecast that economy will grow by 6.4 percent in the current fiscal year as per the Economic Review report of the government, selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks along with expectations of increase in foreign inflows prevented sharp fall in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched a low of 54.44 in the last week and closed at 54.375 against dollar on Friday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4,450.0 crores ($822.66 million) as on 26th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.60,072.30 crores ($11,132.70 million) till 26th April 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of rise in foreign funds inflows along with selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks will support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

valid for April 29, 2013 Trend Support 54.40/54.20 Resistance 54.70/54.85

US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

Sideways

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.2 percent in the last week on the back of decline in the regions manufacturing and services PMI data coupled with fall in the German Ifo business climate. Further, more than expected rise in the Spanish unemployment rate also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp decline in the currency. German Import Prices declined by 0.1 percent in March as against a rise of 0.3 percent in February. Money Supply increased at slow pace of 2.6 percent in March from rise of 3.1 percent a month ago. Private Loans declined by 0.8 percent in the last month. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.2954 and closed at 1.3026 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside will be capped as a result of expectations of unfavorable economic data from the region. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.65/70.30 71.30/71.70 valid for April 29, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3026 70.91 70.7 70.7 Prev. day 0.1 -0.8 -0.19 -0.24

as on April 26, 2013 WoW -0.2 -0.5 0.20 0.16 MoM 1.6 -1.4 0.40 0.39 YoY -1.4 1.25 1.23

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5478 84.24 83.87 Prev. day 0.30 0.640 0.19

as on April 26, 2013

WoW 1.6 2.05 1.68

MoM 1.8 2.20 1.17

YoY -4.3 -0.63 -1.89

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Sterling Pound appreciated by 1.6 percent. The currency appreciated as a result of countrys Prelims Gross Domestic Product (GDP) coming on a favorable note. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched a high of 1.5497 in the last week and closed at 1.5478 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for April 29, 2013 Support 84.0/83.75 Resistance 84.45/84.70

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

83.86

0.17

1.69

1.14

-1.91

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 1.5 percent in the last week on the back of decline in inflation data from the country. Further, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the week which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of expectations of stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan. The Yen touched a weekly high of 97.54 and closed at 98.03 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 29, 2013 Support 55.0/54.60 Resistance 55.60/55.90
Source: Telequote

as on April 26, 2013 Last 98.03 0.5546 54.97 54.98 Prev day -1.2 1.58 0.48 0.51 WoW -1.5 0.82 -0.02 -0.01 MoM 4.1 -3.48 -5.21 -5.18 YoY 21.0 -14.22 -15.92 -15.91

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on April 29, 2013

Indicator Bank Holiday Bank Holiday German Prelim CPI m/m Italian 10-y Bond Auction Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m Pending Home Sales m/m Country Japan China Euro Euro US US US Time (IST) All Day All Day All Day Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast -0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% Previous 0.5% 4.66/1.3 0.1% 0.7% -0.4% Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High

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