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University of Hong Kong Department of Politics and Public Administration CCCH 9011 Chinas Rise and Asias Future

Second Semester, January 2013 Wednesday, 12:30-14:20, T-7 Meng Wah Complex (Version: 21 January 2013)

Instructor: Dr. Paul Evans Office: C945, Jockey Club Tower, Centennial Campus Phone: 3917-7118 E-mail: pmevans@hku.hk Office Hours: Tuesday 16:00-17:00 or by appointment

Tutor: Leslie Wee C967 3917-5565 lesweelh@hku.hk By appointment

Subject and Approach The world is being reshaped by the fourth rise of China, its dynamic integration into regional production networks and global value chains, its deepening influence in international institutions, and the evolution of its particular form of authoritarian capitalism. Decisions of Chinese officials, citizens and consumers have impact globally. As the world changes China, China is changing the world and its region. Nowhere is Chinas rise more deeply rooted, more important or more deeply felt than in its immediate neighborhood, alternatively conceived of as East Asia, Northeast Asia, Eastern Asia, Asia-Pacific or simply Asia. The international relations of its neighborhood have been transformed in the past twenty-five years by dynamic economic interdependence, integrated production systems, and trans-national flows of people, money, and ideas. There have been intensive efforts at building regional institutions to deepen cooperation and lay the foundations for community. Despite progress in these areas the region confronts a series of rivalries and unresolved historical legacies and interpretations of history that are compounded by geo-political tensions created by rising Chinese power and the challenge this poses to other great powers, the United States in particular. Chinas rise is creating and contributing to enormous economic

opportunities at the same time that it is creating new uncertainties and a fear that with increased power it may seek to re-create the Middle Kingdom role of the past. The course introduces three sets of issues. First: what and where is China in a new global and regional context? Second, what are economic, political and cultural forces that are shaping relations among governments and civil societies in a series of overlapping regions or sub-regions within Asia? Third, what are the dynamics in the key bilateral relationships and in the nascent multilateral arrangements? What are the prospects for identity and institution building in Asia? Is China positioned or destined to play a leadership role in a new regional order? Learning Outcomes Understand, critique and employ basic concepts and interpretations of contemporary Chinas place in the world and its geographical neighborhood, the forces and ideas that move it, and what to expect from a China with growing global influence. Familiarization with a range of sources including academic texts, policy papers, journalistic accounts and official statements and opinions. Application of concepts and perspectives to contemporary policy options in international affairs. Requirements and Assessment Tutorial and Class Participations (35%). Students are required to attend all tutorials and actively contribute to discussion and debate. This will require completing the required readings in advance of each tutorial and connecting them to the class-room lectures. Essay (25%). 1800-2200 words. It can take the form of (a) a review essay focused on one or more books, videos or films connected to the course or (b) an analytic essay designed in consultation with the class tutor and based principally on the readings for the course. A list of suggestive topics will be distributed in class at the end of January. One place to look for books for review is in the review section of Global Asia. The essay is due at 5:00 pm, March 27th. Essays must be submitted through Turnitin. Late papers will be accepted within the first 6 days, but a penalty of 5% per day will be applied. No paper will be accepted more than 6 days after the submission deadline without prior approval. Final Paper (40%). At the conclusion of our final class on April 24th, students will be given five questions and required to write two short papers, each no longer than 1200 words, that answer two of the questions. The papers are to be written on the basis of the readings and discussion in the class and tutorial. They must be submitted via Turnitin no later than 6PM on Sunday, April 28th. Late papers will be penalized at the rate of 25% per day and not accepted without prior approval after Tuesday, April 30th at 6PM. Academic Misconduct Warning The Department of Politics & Public Administration expects all students to conform to the highest standards of academic integrity. It takes plagiarism very seriously, whether direct, indirect, or self-plagiarism. Direct plagiarism is intentionally and completely lifting the words, equations, charts, graphs or artistic material of another author or authors. Indirect plagiarism is failing to cite completely or accurately, and/or copying themes, ideas, or sources the student has not read from another author or authors. Self-plagiarism is recycling papers, documents, equations, and so forth from a document previously submitted by the student without quotation, citation, or attribution of the previous work.

The two required papers for the course will be submitted to Turnitin (http://lib.hku.hk/turnitin/turnitin.html; www.turnitin.com), a service that checks textual material for originality. In the event essays (or tutorial presentations) appear to be plagiarized, the student will be asked for an explanation by the instructor. Acts of plagiarism can result in heavy penalties, including disciplinary action. For more information about the Universitys policy on plagiarism see: http://www.hku.hk/plagiarism. E-Protocol Students are welcome to bring lap tops, tablets, PCDs to class and to employ electronic means in ways they will be willing to explain and demonstrate during lectures and tutorials. They should be prepared to open their screens at any time to other members of the class. All machines should be set on mute, no headphones or ear buds. Video or audio recordings of our class discussions are not permitted without the instructors advance approval. The lecturer and tutorial leader will be available in person during office hours and by e-mail. Keep questions or comments brief and direct. Expect a reply within 24-48 hours. Readings and AV Materials Weekly assigned readings and audio/video materials (required and recommended) are listed under the class schedule below. The required readings and viewings should be done in advance of the lectures and tutorial discussions. Students are encouraged to keep abreast of new developments concerning China by reading newspapers, magazines, or Internet browsing, and to share interesting information and analysis with the class. There is a database of readings along with other information (tutorial schedules, lecture materials, hot links) in the Moodle account for the class. Course materials are for personal use only and not for reproduction or further distribution. While it is not compulsory, students should consider acquiring Martin Jacques When China Rules the World. Be sure to secure the 2012 second edition published by Penguin. Copies are available at the bookstore on in an e-format from the publisher or retailers. The following books are kept in the Reserve Room of the HKU Main Library and contain several of the required and recommended readings: John Baylis, Steve Smith, and Patricia Owens, The Globalization of World Politics, 4th edition (Oxford University Press, 2008). Michael Connors, Remy Davison and Jorn Dosch, The New Global Politics of the Asia Pacific (London: Routledge, 2nd edition 2012). Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World (New York: The Penguin Press, revised version, 2012). David Lampton, The Three Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money and Minds (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008). Kishore Mahbubani, The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East (New York: Public Affairs, 2008).

Edward S. Steinfeld, Playing our Game: Why Chinas Rise Doesnt Threaten the West (Oxford University Press, 2010). Wang Gungwu and Zheng Yongnian, eds., China and the New International Order (London: Routledge, 2008). Odd Arne Westad, Restless Empire: China and the World Since 1750 (New York: Basic Books, 2012), Brantly Womack, ed., Chinas Rise in Historical Perspective (Rowman & Littlefield, 2010). Zhang Weiwei, The China Wave: Rise of a Civilizational State, (Hackensack, N.J.: World Century, 2012). Zhao Quansheng and Liu Guoli, eds., Managing the China Challenge (London: Routledge, 2009). Class Schedule and Readings January 23 Global China, Global Asia Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World (Penguin 2012), Ch. 1, The Changing of the Guard, pp. 1-21. Or view his TED talk, November 2010, 21 minutes, http://www.ted.com/talks/martin_jacques_understanding_the_rise_of_china.html Recommended: Niall Ferguson, The West and the Rest: The Changing Global Balance of Power in Historic Perspective, lecture by at Chatham House, 9 May 2011, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/19251_090511ferguson.pdf. Or watch his presentation on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AORm8Nvoud4, 53 minutes. Interview with Kishore Mahbubani, Navigating Asias Tricky Inflection Points, Global Brief, 4 October 2012, http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2012/10/04/navigating-asia%E2%80%99stricky-inflection-points/. Steve Smith, John Baylis and Patricia Owens, Introduction, pp. 2-12 and David Armstrong, The Evolution of International Society, pp. 37-49 in Smith, Baylis and Owens, eds., The Globalization of World Politics, 4th edition. January 30 What is China? Jacques, Ch. 7, A Civilization-State, pp. 241-293 and pp. 677-84. Timothy Cheek, Making Sense: What is China?, in his Living with Reform: China Since 1989 (Zed Books, 2006), pp. 13-31 and 151-52. February 6 Where is China? Robert Kaplan, Geography of Chinese Power: How Far Can Beijing Reach on Land and at Sea? Foreign Affairs, May/June 2010, pp. 22-41. See the Fareed Zakaria interview with him, 29 August 2010, GPS, http://foreignaffairsmagazine.tumblr.com/post/1037125494/robert-kaplan-recentlyappeared-on-fareed-zakaria. (Minutes 3-16). National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, December 2012, Executive Summary,pp. i-xiv, http://globaltrends2030.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/global-trends-2030november2012.pdf.

Recommended: Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook 2012, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/rankorder/rankorderguide.html Robert Ross, The Geography of the Peace, International Security, Spring 1999, pp. 81-118, http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/586/geography_of_the_peace.html. February 13 Lunar New Year, No Class

February 20 Asia as Chinas Neighborhood Jacques, Ch. 9, Chinas Own Backyard, pp. 342-405 and pp. 693-705. Chung-in Moon and Seung-won Suh, Burdens of the Past: Overcoming History, the Politics of Identity and Nationalism in Asia, Global Asia, Spring 2007,
http://www.globalasia.org/Back_Issues/Volume_2_Number_1_Spring_2007/Burdens_of_the_pas t_Overcoming_History_the_Politics_of_Identity_and_Nationalism_in_Asia.html

Sun Yat-sen, Greater Asianism, speech delivered in Kobe, Japan, 28 November 1924. Recommended: Jacques, Ch. 8, The Middle Kingdom Mentality, pp. 294-341 and pp. 684-92. Nayan Chanda, When Asia Was One, Global Asia, Fall 2006, http://www.globalasia.org/Back_Issues/Volume_1_Number_1_Fall_2006/When_Asia_w as_one.html Odd Arne Westad, Chinas Asia, Ch. 11 of his Restless Empire: China and the World Since 1750 (Basic Books, 2012), pp. 405-38 and pp. 497-98. February 27 Geo-politics of Asia Nick Bisley, Biding and Hiding No Longer: A More Assertive China Rattles the Region, Global Asia, Winter 2011, http://www.globalasia.org/V6N4_Winter_2011/Nick_Bisley.html Wu Xinbo, Not Backing Down: China Responds to the US Rebalance to Asia, Global Asia, December 2012, http://www.globalasia.org/V7N4_Winter_2012/Wu_Xinbo.html Kishore Mahbubani, Results Matter: Pragmatism Prevails in Asia, Global Asia, Spring 2010, http://www.globalasia.org/V5N1_Spring_2010/Kishore_Mahbubani.html Recommended: Patrick Cronin, As the World Rebalances in the Asian-Pacific Century, So Must the United States, Global Asia, December 2012, http://www.globalasia.org/V7N4_Winter_2012/Patrick_M_Cronin.html Richard Cronin and Zachary Dubel, Maritime Security in East Asia: Boundary Disputes, Resources and the Future of Regional Stability, Stimson Center Working Paper, August 2012, http://www.stimson.org/summaries/maritime-security-in-east-asia-boundarydisputes-resources-and-the-future-of-regional-stability/. Speech by John Mearsheimer, Why China Cannot Rise Peacefully, October 2012, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXov7MkgPB4

March 6 Geo-economics of Asia Fred Bergsten, et al., Chinas Challenge to the Global Economic Order, Ch. 1 of their Chinas Rise: Challenges and Opportunities (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute and CSIS Press, 2008), pp. 9-32. Zhang Yunling, Emerging Force: China in the Region and the World, Global Asia, Winter 2011, http://www.globalasia.org/V6N4_Winter_2011/Zhang_Yunling.html Video: New York Times, The iPhone Economy, 23 January 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/01/20/business/the-iphone-economy.html? ref=business. 5 minutes. The print story in which it is embedded is at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middleclass.html?hp&_r=0 Recommended: Jacques, Ch. 10, China as a Rising Global Power, esp. pp. 406-11, 439-450, and pp. 469-88. Kenneth Lieberthal, interview on China as a global economic player, 17 August 2012, 13 minutes, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RVMp8Bfa58 China Global Investment Tracker Interactive Map, Heritage Foundation, January 2013, http://www.heritage.org/research/projects/china-global-investment-tracker-interactivemap March 13 Reading Week, No Class

March 20 China and Japan Kent Calder, China and Japans Simmering Rivalry, Foreign Affairs, MarchApril 2006, pp. 129-39. Yang Yi, "Social Media: Building Mutual Trust Between China and Japan." PacNet 57, 6 October 2011, www.csis.org/files/publication/pac1157.pdf IISS, Island Dispute Stirs Sino-Japanese Tensions, Strategic Comments, 28 September 2012, http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-182012/september/island-dispute-stirs-sino-japanese-tensions/. Recommended: Michael Yahuda, Sino-Japanese Relations: Partners and Rivals? Korean Journal of Defence Analysis, 21(4), 2009, pp.365-79. Relations on the Rocks, Economist, 25 August 2012, with embedded video interview, http://www.economist.com/node/21560893. March 27 China and Korea Jae Ho Chung, Korean Views of Korea-China Relations: Evolving Perceptions and Upcoming Challenges, Asian Perspective, April-June 2012, pp. 219-36. Chen Zhimin, Embracing the Complexities in China-ROK Relations: A View from China, Asian Perspective, April-June 2012, pp. 195-218. Recommended: Chung-In Moon, , (: , 2011).

April 3 China and India Rupakjyoti Borah, Compete or Cooperate? India, China and the Asian Century, Global Asia, Summer 2012, http://www.globalasia.org/V7N2_Summer_2012/Rupakjyoti_Borah.html B.R. Deepak, Leadership Transition in China: What Does it Hold for India, Chennai Centre for China Studies, 11 December 2012, http://www.c3sindia.org/china-internal/3226. April 10 China and Southeast Asia Huang Chin-Hao, Chinas Soft Power in East Asia, NBR Special Report, January 2013, pp. 119, http://www.nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/SR42_Huang.pdf Mahani Zainal Abidin, Where is China Taking Asia?, East Asia Forum, 5 January 2013, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/01/05/where-is-china-taking-asia/ Evelyn Goh, The Limits of Chinese Power in Southeast Asia, East Asia Forum, 10 May 2011, 2pp., http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/05/10/the-limits-of-chinese-power-in-southeastasia/. Recommended: Evelyn Goh, Great Powers and Hierarchical Order in Southeast Asia: Analyzing Regional Security Strategies, International Security 32(3), 2007-08, pp.113-157. http://www.bristol.ac.uk/ceas/chinaintheworld/readings/Goh.pdf Sam Bateman, Managing the South China Sea: Sovereignty is Not the Issue, RSIS Commentaries, No. 136, 29 September 2011, http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS1362011.pdf Barry Desker, Defusing Tensions in the South China Sea, RSIS Commentaries, No. 216, 3 December 2012, http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS2162012.pdf? utm_source=getresponse&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=rsis_publications&utm_ content=RSIS%20Commentary%20216%2F2012%20Defusing%20Tensions%20in %20the%20South%20China%20Sea%20by%20Barry%20Desker. April 17 China in Trans-national Asia James Farrer, Asian Youth Culture in a Globalizing World: Networked and Not Inhibited, Global Asia, Spring 2007, http://www.globalasia.org/Back_Issues/Volume_2_Number_1_Spring_2007/Asian_Yout h_Culture_in_a_Globalizing_World_Networked_and_Not_Inhibited.html Cho Wu-Suk, Riding the Korean Wave from Gangnam Style to Global Recognition, Global Asia, Fall 2012, http://www.globalasia.org/V7N3_Fall_2012/Wu-Suk_Cho.html Jacques, Ch. 5, Contested Modernity, pp. 117-68 and pp. 658-65. Recommended: Remy Davison, Actors Beyond Borders? Transnational Actors in the Asia Pacific, in Michael Connors, Remy Davison and Jorn Dosch, The New Global Politics of the Asia Pacific (London: Routledge, 2nd edition 2012), pp. 225-47.

April 24

China, Multilateral Asia and the Prospects of an Asian Community

Zhang Xiaoming, The Rise of China and Community Building in East Asia, Asian Perspective, 30(3), 2006, pp. 129-148, http://www2.pids.gov.ph/neat/images/stories/unclassified/zhang_xiaoming_the_rise_of_c hina.pdf Amitav Acharya, Can Asia Lead? Power Ambitions and Global Governance in the 21st Century, International Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 4, 2011, pp. 851-69. Miles Kahler, Weak Ties Dont Bind: Asia Needs Stronger Structures to Build Lasting Peace, Global Asia, Summer 2011, http://www.globalasia.org/V6N2_Summer_2011/Miles_Kahler.html Brian Job and Erin Williams, 2009, 2010, 2011. In their CSCAP Regional Security Outlook, 2009-10, 2011, and 2012, pp. 4-9. 4-9 and 4-11 respectively. www.cscap.org/index.php?page=CSCAP-regional-security-outlook. Recommended: Nick Bisley, Building Asias Security (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2009), Ch. 1, Security Architecture, the Asian Way, pp. 17-32 and Ch. 2, The Current Regional Order, pp. 32-76. Mohamed Jawhar Hassan, An Enduring but Elusive Idea: Peace Through Cooperation, On CSCAP, Global Asia, Fall 2012, http://www.globalasia.org/V7N3_Fall_2012/Mohamed_Jawhar_Hassan.html

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