Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
P(x)
xP(x)
1
2
3
4
5
.238
.290
.177
.158
.137
.238
.580
.531
.632
.685
= [xP(x)] = 2.666
=
1.836444
(x-)2
2.775556
0.443556
0.111556
1.779556
5.447556
(x-)2P(x)
0.6605823
0.1286312
0.0197454
0.2811700
0.7463152
2 = (x-)2P(x) = 1.836444
= 1.355155
5.2
P(x)
xP(x)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
.103
.118
.246
.229
.138
.094
.071
.001
.000
.118
.492
.687
.552
.470
.426
.007
(x-)2
5.3
x
0
1
2
3
4
2 = (x-)2P(x) = 2.752496
xP(x)
.461
.285
.129
.087
.038
(x-)2
.000
.285
.258
.261
.152
1.278064
P(x)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
.262
.393
.246
.082
.015
.002
.000
xP(x)
.96260
(x-)2P(x)
0.913936
0.001936
1.089936
4.177936
9.265936
0.421324
0.000552
0.140602
0.363480
0.352106
2 = (x-)2P(x) = 1.278064
= 1.1305
.000
.393
.492
.246
.060
.010
.000
= [xP(x)] = 1.201
=
0.780071
0.362201
0.139114
0.014084
0.214936
0.475029
0.749015
0.018046
= 1.6591
2.752496
P(x)
(x-)2P(x)
7.573504
3.069504
0.565504
0.061504
1.557504
5.053504
10.549500
18.045500
= [xP(x)] = 2.752
=
= .98112
(x-)2
1.4424
0.0404
0.6384
3.2364
7.8344
14.4324
23.0304
(x-)2P(x)
0.37791
0.01588
0.15705
0.26538
0.11752
0.02886
0.00000
2 = (x-)2P(x) = 0.96260
5.5
a)
n=4
P(x=3) =
b)
n=7
p = .10
q = .90
p = .80
q = .20
n = 10
p = .60
q = .40
10
n = 12
p = .45
q = .55
12
5.6
By Table A.2:
a)
n = 20
p = .50
P(x=12) = .120
b)
n = 20
p = .30
n = 20
p = .70
n = 20
p = .90
n = 15
p = .40
n = 10
p = .60
n = 20
p = .70
q = .30
= np = 20(.70) = 14
=
b)
n = 70
n p q =
20(.70)(.30) =
p = .35
= np = 70(.35) = 24.5
4.2
q = .65
= 2.05
=
c)
n p q =
n = 100
70(.35)(.65) = 15.925
p = .50
= 3.99
q = .50
= np = 100(.50) = 50
=
n p q = 100(.50)(.50) =
25
= 5
5.8
a)
b)
n=6
n = 20
p = .70
p = .50
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Prob
.001
.010
.060
.185
.324
.303
.118
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Prob
.000
.000
.000
.001
.005
.015
.037
.074
.120
c)
n=8
p = .80
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
.160
.176
.160
.120
.074
.037
.015
.005
.001
.000
.000
.000
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Prob
.000
.000
.001
.009
.046
.147
.294
.336
.168
5.9
a)
n = 20
p = .78
x = 14
20
b)
n = 20
p = .75
x = 20
20
c)
n = 20
p = .70
x < 12
n = 16
p = .40
.084
.039
.014
.004
.001
.142
.047
.101
.162
.198
.508
n = 13
p = .88
n = 25
P = .60
a) x > 15
P(x > 15) = P(x = 15) + P(x = 16) + + P(x = 25)
Using Table A.2
x
Prob
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
.161
.151
.120
.080
.044
.020
.007
.002
n = 25, p = .80
.585
b) x > 20
from a): P(x > 20) = P(x = 21) + P(x = 22) + P(x = 23) +
P(x = 24) + P(x = 25) =
.007 + .002 + .000 + .000 + .000 = .009
Prob.
.009
.003
.001
.000
.013
5.12
The highest probability values are for x = 15, 16, 14, 17, 13, 18, and 12.
The expected value is 25(.60) = 15. The standard deviation is 2.45.
15 + 2(2.45) = 15 + 4.90 gives a range that goes from 10.10 to 19.90. From
table A.2, the sum of the probabilities of the values in this range (11 through
19) is .936 or 93.6% of the values which compares quite favorably with the
95% suggested by the empirical rule.
5.13
n = 15 p = .20
a) P(x = 5) =
C5(.20)5(.80)10 =
15
3003(.00032)(.1073742) = .1032
b) P(x > 9): Using Table A.2
P(x = 10) + P(x = 11) + . . . + P(x = 15) =
C0(.20)0(.80)15 =
15
(1)(1)(.035184) = .0352
d) P(4 < x < 7): Using Table A.2
P(x = 4) + P(x = 5) + P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) =
.188 + .103 + .043 + .014 = .348
e)
5.14
n = 18
a)
b)
p =.30
= 18(.30) = 5.4
p = .34
= 18(.34) = 6.12
P(x > 8)
n = 18
Prob
.081
.039
.015
.005
.001
.141
p = .30
10
c) n = 18
11
p = .34
18
C3(.34)3(.66)15 +
18
C4(.34)4(.66)14 =
18
p = .30
x=0
C0(.30)0(.70)18 = .00163
18
n = 18
p = .34
x=0
C0(.34)0(.66)18 = .00056
18
The probability that none are in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 is higher because
there is a smaller percentage in that category which is closer to zero.
5.15
a) Prob(x=5 = 2.3)=
(2.35)(e-2.3) = (64.36343)(.1002588) = .0538
5!
(120)
b) Prob(x=2 = 3.9) =
(3.92)(e-3.9) = (15.21)(.02024) = .1539
2!
(2)
c) Prob(x < 3 = 4.1) =
Prob(x=3) + Prob(x=2) + Prob(x=1) + Prob(x=0) =
(4.13)(e-4.1) = (68.921)(.016574) = .1904
3!
6
+ (4.12)(e-4.1) = (16.81)(.016573) = .1393
2!
2
+ (4.11)(e-4.1) = (4.1)(.016573) = .0679
1!
1
12
Prob
.0068
.0022
.0006
.0002
.0000
x > 7 .0098
13
Prob
.1852
.1944
.1633
.1143
.0686
.0360
.0168
.7786
Prob
.0050
.1596
.2314
.2237
.1622
.0940
.0455
.9214
Prob
.1594
.1298
.0925
.3817
mean = 6.3
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Standard deviation =
Prob
.0018
.0116
.0364
.0765
.1205
.1519
.1595
6.3
= 2.51
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
b) = 1.3
mean = 1.3
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
14
.1435
.1130
.0791
.0498
.0285
.0150
.0073
.0033
.0014
.0005
.0002
.0001
.0000
standard deviation =
Prob
.2725
.3542
.2303
.0998
.0324
.0084
.0018
.0003
.0001
.0000
1.3
= 1.14
c) = 8.9
mean = 8.9
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
15
standard deviation =
Prob
.0001
.0012
.0054
.0160
.0357
.0635
.0941
.1197
.1332
.1317
.1172
.0948
.0703
.0481
.0306
.0182
.0101
.0053
.0026
.0012
.0005
.0002
.0001
8.9
= 2.98
d) = 0.6
mean = 0.6
x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
5.18
= 2.84 minutes
a) Prob(x=6 = 2.8)
from Table A.3 .0407
16
standard deviation =
Prob
.5488
.3293
.0988
.0198
.0030
.0004
.0000
0. 6
= .775
17
b) Prob(x=0 = 2.8) =
from Table A.3 .0608
c) Unable to meet demand if x > 44 minutes:
x
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
x>4
.1523
Prob.
.0872
.0407
.0163
.0057
.0018
.0005
.0001
.1523
probability of being unable to meet the demand.
5.19
x
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
x> 5
18
Prob.
.1697
.1584
.1267
.0887
.0552
.0309
.0157
.0073
.0032
.0013
.0005
.0002
.0001
.6579
19
e) P(x = 8 15 minutes)
= 10.5 15 minutes
P(x = 8 15 minutes) =
5.20
X e
X!
= .1009
Prob.
.0005
.0002
.0001
.0008
20
x
2
3
4
5
6
Prob.
.0988
.0198
.0030
.0004
.0000
x > 2
.1220
x
0
1
2
3
x < 3
e) Prob(x=4 6 years):
The interval has been increased (6 times)
New Lambda = = 3.6 trips6 years
Prob(x=4 = 3.6):
from Table A.3 = .1912
5.22
Prob.
.1653
.2975
.2678
.1607
.8913
21
x
0
1
Prob.
.1653
.2975
x< 1
.4628
The result is likely to happen almost half the time (46.26%). Ship channel and
weather conditions are about normal for this period. Safety awareness is
about normal for this period. There is no compelling reason to reject the
lambda value of 0.6 collisions per 4 months based on an outcome of 0 or 1
collisions per 6 months.
5.23
= 1.2 penscarton
a) Prob(x=0 = 1.2):
from Table A.3 = .3012
b) Prob(x > 8 = 1.2):
from Table A.3 = .0000
c) Prob(x > 3 = 1.2):
from Table A.3
Prob.
5.24
n = 100,000
22
4
5
6
7
8
.0260
.0062
.0012
.0002
.0000
x>3
.0336
p = .00004
x
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Prob.
.0595
.0298
.0132
.0053
.0019
.0006
.0002
.0001
x > 7
.1106
x
11
12
13
14
Prob.
.0019
.0006
.0002
.0001
x > 10
.0028
Prob(x>10 = 4):
Using Table A.3
Since getting more than 10 is a rare occurrence, this particular geographic region
appears to have a higher average rate than other regions. An investigation of
particular characteristics of this region might be warranted.
5.25
p = .009
23
n = 200
n = 300,
p = .01,
= n(p) = 300(.01) = 3
a) Prob(x = 5):
Using = 3 and Table A.3 = .1008
b) Prob (x < 4) = Prob.(x = 0) + Prob.(x = 1) + Prob.(x = 2) + Prob.(x = 3) =
.0498 + .1494 + .2240 + .2240 = .6472
c) The expected number = = = 3
5.27
a) Prob(x = 3 N = 11, A = 8, n = 4)
8
C 3 3 C1 (56)(3)
=
= .5091
330
11 C 4
C1 10 C 5
+
15 C 6
C 0 10 C 6
(5)(252) (1)( 210)
+
=
5005
5005
15 C 6
24
C 0 7 C 3 (1)(35)
=
= .4167
84
9 C3
C 5 15 C 2
+
20 C 7
C 6 15 C1
+
20 C 7
C 7 15 C 0
=
20 C 7
(1)(105)
+ 5C6 (impossible) + 5C7(impossible) = .0014
77520
5.28
N = 19 n = 6
a) P(x = 1 private)
11
A = 11
C1 8 C 5
(11)(56)
=
= .0227
27,132
19 C 6
b) P(x = 4 private)
11
C 4 8 C 2
(330)(28)
=
= .3406
27,132
19 C 6
c) P(x = 6 private)
11
C 6 8 C 0
( 462)(1)
=
= .0170
27,132
19 C 6
d) P(x = 0 private)
11
C 0 8 C 6
(1)(28)
=
= .0010
27,132
19 C 6
5.29
N = 17
A=8
8
a) P(x = 0) =
b) P(x = 4) =
n=4
C 0 9 C 4
(1)(126)
=
= .0529
2380
17 C 4
C 4 9 C 0
(70)(1)
=
= .0294
2380
17 C 4
N = 20
25
C 2 8 C 2
(36)(28)
=
= .4235
2380
17 C 4
A = 16 white
a) Prob(x = 4 white) =
b) Prob(x = 4 red) =
16
N - A = 4 red
C 4 4 C1
(1820)( 4)
=
C
15504
20 5
n=5
= .4696
C 4 16 C1
(1)(16)
=
= .0010
15504
20 C 5
C 5 16 C 0
= .0000 because 4C5 is impossible to determine
20 C 5
The participant cannot draw 5 red beads if there are only 4 to draw from.
c) Prob(x = 5 red) =
5.31
N = 10
n=4
a) A = 3 x = 2
3
C 2 7 C 2 (3)(21)
=
= .30
210
10 C 4
b) A = 5 x = 0
5
C 0 5 C 4 (1)(5)
=
= .0238
210
10 C 4
c) A = 5 x = 3
5
5.32
C 3 5 C1 (10)(5)
=
= .2381
210
10 C 4
N = 16
A = 4 defective
n=3
a) Prob(x = 0) =
26
C 0 12 C 3 (1)(220)
=
= .3929
560
16 C 3
C 3 12 C 0 (4)(1)
=
= .0071
560
16 C 3
4 C 2 12 C1
c) Prob(x > 2) = Prob(x=2) + Prob(x=3) =
+ .0071 (from part b.) =
16 C 3
(6)(12)
560 + .0071 = .1286 + .0071 = .1357
4
b) Prob(x = 3) =
5.33
C1 12 C 2
( 4)(66)
+ .3929 (from part a.) =
+ .3929 = .4714 + .3929 = .8643
C
560
16 3
N = 18
A = 11 Hispanic
n=5
C1 7 C 4
+
18 C 5
11
C 0 7 C 5
=
18 C 5
(11)(35) (1)(21)
+
= .0449 + .0025 = .0474
8568
8568
11
27
14
C1(.70)1(.30)13 + 14C0(.70)0(.30)14 =
14
(364)(.3430)(.00000177) + (91)(.49)(.000000047)=
(14)(.70)(.00000016) + (1)(1)(.000000047) =
.0002 + .0000 + .0000 + .0000 = .0002
5.35
Prob.
.028
.121
.233
.267
.200
.849
Prob.
.063
.022
14
15
x > 12
28
.005
.000
.090
Prob.
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
a) Prob(x=4 = 1.25)
(1.254)(e-1.25) = (2.4414)(.2865) = .0291
4!
24
b) Prob(x < 1 = 6.37) = Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) =
(6.37)1(e-6.37) + (6.37)0(e-6.37) = (6.37)(.0017) + (1)(.0017) =
1!
0!
1
1
.0109 + .0017 = .0126
c) Prob(x > 5 = 2.4) = Prob(x = 6) + Prob(x = 7) + ... =
(2.4)6(e-2.4) + (2.4)7(e-2.4) + (2.4)8(e-2.4) + (2.4)9(e-2.4) + (2.4)10(e-2.4) + ...
6!
7!
8!
9!
10!
.0241 + .0083 + .0025 + .0007 + .0002 = .0358
for values x > 11 the probabilities are each .0000 when rounded off to 4
decimal places.
5.37
29
Prob.
.0369
.1217
.2008
.2209
.1823
.7626
Prob.
.1890
.0992
.0417
.0146
.0044
.0011
.0003
.0001
.0000
.3504
5.38
x
3
4
5
Prob.
.1852
.1944
.1633
2<x <5
.5429
a) Prob(x = 3 N = 6, n = 4, A = 5) =
30
C 3 1 C1 (10)(1)
=
= .6667
15
6 C4
C1 5 C 2
+
10 C 3
C 0 5 C 3
(5)(10) (1)(10)
+
=
120
120
10 C 3
C 2 10 C 3
+
13 C 5
C 3 10 C 2
(3)(120) (1)(45)
+
=
1287
1287
13 C 5
5.39
n = 25 p = .20 retired
from Table A.2: P(x = 7) = .111
P(x > 10): P(x = 10) + P(x = 11) + . . . + P(x = 25) =
.012 + .004 + .001 = .017
Expected Value = = np = 25(.20) = 5
n = 20 p = .40 mutual funds
P(x = 8) = .180
P(x < 6) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + . . . + P(x = 5) =
.000 + .000 + .003 +.012 + .035 + .075 = .125
P(x = 0) = .000
P(x > 12) = P(x = 12) + P(x = 13) + . . . + P(x = 20) =
.035 + .015 + .005 + .001 = .056
x=8
31
Prob.
.0176
.0047
.0011
.0002
.0236
Either a rare event occurred or perhaps the long-run average, , has changed
(increased).
5.41
N = 32
A = 10
a) P(x = 3) =
10
b) P(x = 6) =
10
n = 12
C 3 22 C 9
(120)( 497,420)
=
= .2644
225,792,840
32 C12
C 6 22 C 6
( 210)(74,613)
=
= .0694
225,792,840
32 C12
c) P(x = 0) =
10
32
C 0 22 C12
(1)(646,646)
=
= .0029
225,792,840
32 C12
d) A = 22
P(7 < x < 9) =
22
C 7 10 C 5
+
32 C12
22
C 8 10 C 4
+
32 C12
22
C 9 10 C 3
32 C12
5.43
x
0
1
2
3
Prob.
.2466
.3452
.2417
.1128
x<3
.9463
a) n = 20 and p = .25
The expected number = = np = (20)(.25) = 5.00
b) Prob(x < 1 n = 20 and p = .25) =
Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) = 20C1(.25)1(.75)19 + 20C0(.25)0(.75)20
= (20)(.25)(.00423) + (1)(1)(.0032) = .0212 +. 0032 = .0244
Since the probability is so low, the population of your state may have a lower
percentage of chronic heart conditions than those of other states.
5.44
Prob.
.233
.121
.028
x>7
33
.382
15
n = 12
a.) Prob(x = 0 long hours):
p = .20
C0(.20)0(.80)12 = .0687
12
C5(.25)5(.75)7 = .1032
12
n = 100,000
p = .000014
Worked as a Poisson:
= np = 100,000(.000014) = 1.4
a) P(x = 5):
from Table A.3 = .0111
34
b) P(x = 0):
from Table A.3 = .2466
c) P(x > 6):
x
7
8
5.47
Prob
.0005
.0001
.0006
Prob.
.001
.008
.041
.124
.174
17.4% of the time in a sample of eight, three or fewer customers are walk-ins by
chance. Other reasons for such a low number of walk-ins might be that she is
retaining more old customers than before or perhaps a new competitor is
attracting walk-ins away from her.
5.48
n = 25
p = .20
.062
Prob.
.004
.001
.000
.005
c) Since such a result would only occur 0.5% of the time by chance, it is likely
that the analyst's list was not representative of the entire state of Idaho or the
20% figure for the Idaho census is not correct.
5.49
35
Prob.
.0198
.0030
.0004
x>3
N = 25
n=8
a) P(x = 1 in NY)
4
A=4
C1 21 C 7
( 4)(116,280)
=
= .4300
1,081,575
25 C 8
A = 10
C 4 15 C 4 (210(1365)
=
= .2650
1,081,575
25 C 8
c) P(x = 0 in California)
4
A=4
C 0 21 C8 (1)(203,490)
=
= .1881
1,081,575
25 C 8
d) P(x = 3 with M)
3
A=3
C 3 22 C 5 (1)(26,334)
=
= .0243
1,081,575
25 C 8
.0232
5.51
N = 24
n=6
a) P(x = 6) =
b) P(x = 0) =
36
A=8
C 6 16 C 0
(28)(1)
=
= .0002
134,596
24 C 6
8
C 0 16 C 6 (1)(8008)
=
= .0595
134,596
24 C 6
d) A = 16 East Side
P(x = 3) =
5.52
16
C 3 8 C 3 (560)(56)
=
= .2330
134,596
24 C 6
n = 25 p = .20
Expected Value = = np = 25(.20) = 5
= 25(.20) = 5
= n p q = 25(.20)(.80) = 2
P(x > 12) = (from Table A.2)
x
13
Prob
.0000
The values for x > 12 are so far away from the expected value that they are very
unlikely to occur.
P(x = 14) = 25C14(.20)14(.80)11 = .000063 which is very unlikely.
If this value (x = 14) actually occurred, one would doubt the validity of the
37
Prob.
.0241
.0083
.0025
.0007
.0002
.0000
.0358
5.54
n = 160
38
p = .01
x
8
9
Prob.
.0002
.0000
.0002
x
2
3
4
5
6
P(2 < x < 6)
Prob.
.2584
.1378
.0551
.0176
.0047
.4736
5.55
p = .005
n = 1,000
= np = (1,000)(.005) = 5
a) P(x < 4) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) =
.0067 + .0337 + .0842 + .1404 = .265
b) P(x > 10) = P(x = 11) + P(x = 12) + . . . =
.0082 + .0034 + .0013 + .0005 + .0002 = .0136
c) P(x = 0) = .0067
5.56
n=8
P = .36
39
x = 0 Women
It is unlikely that a company would randomly hire 8 physicians from the U.S. pool
and none of them would be female. If this actually happened, the figures might
be used as evidence in a lawsuit.
5.57
N = 32
a) n = 5
10
A = 10
C 3 22 C 2 (120)(231)
=
= .1377
201,376
32 C 5
b) n = 8
6
x=3
x<2
C 0 26 C8
+
32 C 8
A=6
6
C1 26 C 7
+
32 C 8
C 2 26 C 6
=
32 C 8
c) n = 5
x=2
p = 3/26 = .1154
5.58
N = 14
n=4
C 4 4 C 0 (210((1)
=
= .2098
1001
14 C 4
C 4 10 C 0
(1)(1)
=
= .0010
1001
14 C 4
C 2 10 C 2 (6)(45)
=
= .2697
1001
14 C 4
5.59
40
a) = 3.841,000
P(x = 0) =
3.840 e 3.84
0!
= .0215
b) = 7.682,000
P(x = 6) =
7.686 e 7.68
( 205,195.258)(.000461975)
=
= .1317
6!
720
15(.36)(.64)
= 1.86
The most likely values are near the mean, 5.4. Note from the printout that the
most probable values are at x = 5 and x = 6 which are near the mean.
5.61
This printout contains the probabilities for various values of x from zero to eleven from a
Poisson distribution with = 2.78. Note that the highest probabilities are at x = 2 and x
= 3 which are near the mean. The probability is slightly higher at x = 2 than at x = 3 even
though x = 3 is nearer to the mean because of the piling up effect of x = 0.
5.62
n p q =
22(.64)(.36)
= 2.25
41
This is the graph of a Poisson Distribution with = 1.784. Note the high
probabilities at x = 1 and x = 2 which are nearest to the mean. Note also that the
probabilities for values of x > 8 are near to zero because they are so far away
from the mean or expected value.