Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| May 8, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| May 8, 2013

Highlights
German Factory Orders grew at slow pace of 2.2 percent in March. US (IBD) / (TIPP) Economic Optimism declined to 45.1-mark in May. French Industrial Production declined by 0.9 percent in March. French Trade Balance was at a deficit of 4.7 billion Euros in April. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of increase in Chinas imports and exports better than the estimates and expectation of stimulus measures from the central bank. US Investor's Business Daily (IBD) / TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism declined by 1.1 points to 45.1-mark in May as against a rise of 46.2-level in April. Chinas Trade Balance was at surplus of $18.2 billion in April as against a deficit of $0.9 billion in March.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 6043.6 19889.0 15056.2 1626.0 17121.9 1954.4 58497.8 14180.2 95.62 1449.00 2377.10 7274.00 102.09 Prev. day 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.5 -0.4 0.2 3.6 -0.6 -1.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0

as on May 7, 2013 WoW 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 -0.5 6.6 -0.1 2.3 -1.6 2.0 3.4 -0.4 MoM 10.0 9.1 1.7 4.7 7.5 1.7 4.1 6.7 1.0 -8.6 -14.1 -7.3 0.4 YoY 18.8 8.7 15.7 18.7 19.9 0.6 -3.1 55.5 -2.4 -11.3 -19.2 -0.2 1.2

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of upbeat global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, favorable German factory orders data also acted as a negative factor for the currency. Additionally, US equities traded on a positive note which exerted downside pressure on the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.12 and closed at 82.34 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day -0.1 0.1 -0.06 -0.08 WoW 0.6 -0.7 0.52 0.51

as on May 7, 2013 MoM -0.1 0.8 -1.57 -1.59 YoY 3.6 -2.3 1.99 1.97

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of expectations that Qatar will purchase a 5 percent stake in Bharti Airtel. Additionally, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the Rupee was capped as a result of dollar demand for defence related purchases. The currency touched an intraday high 54.02 of and closed at 54.05 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4,587.10 crores ($850.53 million) as on 7th May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.65,623.50 crores ($12,160.90 million) till 7th May 2013. Outlook

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

82.34 54.05 54.23 54.22

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of foreign inflows by the way of corporate deal will also support an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of dollar demand from state banks for defence related purchases.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for May 8, 2013 Support 54.05/53.90 Resistance 54.35/54.55

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| May 8, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated marginally by 0.02 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak dollar index coupled with rise in German factory orders as compared to the negative expectation. Further, optimistic global market sentiments supported currency to trade in green. However, sharp upside in the euro was capped as the ECB president Draghi said that bank is ready to cut interest rates again if required. French Industrial Production declined by 0.9 percent in March as against a rise of 0.8 percent a month ago. French Gov Budget Balance was at a deficit of 31 billion Euros in March from earlier deficit of 27.1 billion in prior month. French Trade Balance was at a deficit of 4.7 billion Euros in April as compared to deficit of 5.6 billion Euros in March. German Factory Orders grew at slow pace of 2.2 percent in March with respect to rise of 2.3 percent a month earlier. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3131 and closed at 1.3077 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of expectation of unfavorable economic data from Germany. Additionally, ECB president said that bank is ready to slash interest rates again if required may keep currency under pressure. However, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX may cushion sharp decline in the euro or even reversal may be seen. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.90/70.70 71.25/71.40 valid for May 8, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3077 70.74 71.1 71.1 Prev. day 0.0 0.3 0.05 0.02

as on May 7, 2013 WoW -0.7 -0.2 0.85 0.86 MoM 0.0 0.5 -0.07 -0.10 YoY 0.2 -4.4 2.74 2.75

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5484 83.788 84.17 Prev. day -0.37 -0.460 -0.23

as on May 7, 2013

WoW -0.3 0.24 0.81

MoM 1.1 -0.34 0.42

YoY -4.4 -2.20 -2.01

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.37 percent in yesterdays trade. The currency remained under pressure, ahead of Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting on Thursday. However, sharp downside was cushioned on the back of weak DX coupled with rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5446 and closed at 1.5484 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of unfavorable economic data from the country. Further, Sterling pound may remain under pressure as the investors will keep an eye on BOE monetary policy meeting which will be held this week. However, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX may cushion sharp decline in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 8, 2013 Support 83.85/83.60 Resistance 84.45/84.80

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

84.16

-0.27

0.85

0.42

-2.01

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| May 8, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 98.82 and closed at 99.0 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for May 8, 2013 Support 54.50/54.35 Resistance 54.90/55.20

JPY (% change)
Last 99 0.5479 54.70 54.69 Prev day -0.3 0.48 -0.04 -0.04

as on May 7, 2013 WoW 1.6 -0.94 -1.22 -1.17 MoM 0.0 -2.49 -4.57 -4.57 YoY 23.9 -17.22 -17.86 -17.88

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 8, 2013

Indicator Treasury Sec Lew Speaks BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y Trade Balance French Bank Holiday Halifax HPI m/m German Industrial Production m/m FOMC Member Stein Speaks Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction Country US UK China Europe UK Europe US US US Time (IST) 1:30am 4:31am 7:19am All Day 8 -9
th th

Actual -2.2% 18.2B -

Forecast 15.5B 0.2% -0.1% -

Previous 1.9% -0.9B 0.2% 0.5% 6.7M 1.80/2.8

Impact Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

3:30am 6:00pm 8:00pm 10:30pm

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