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A Discussion Brief on the State of School Enrollment Projections in the Hudson Valley
HUDSON VALLEY
Save Harmless: A mechanism called Save Harmless or Hold Harmless was instituted in the state aid formula in New York State in 1962. In the simplest of terms, it guarantees school districts that state aid will not drop from one year to A prime example of this occurs in the small, rural Sullivan the next. It was meant to stabilize aid in the event of enrollCounty school district of Eldred where state aid doubled while ment drops or fluctuations in property values. enrollment declined by more than 100 students (13%) from 2000 to 2010. Another is Newburgh. Its student enrollment The fiscal effect of substantial state aid increases in districts decreased by more than 900 students in this same time where enrollments have dropped is an ever-increasing cost period and its state aid increased from $74 million to $124 per pupil*. In the Eldred example, the annual cost per pupil million. [To see the detail on recent state aid increases for went from $11,080 to $26,083 in the course of the ten years districts across the state, visit www.pattern-for-progress.org] examined. The cost per pupil in Newburgh went from $10,798 to $21,163. [Recent costs per pupil for all districts The state aid formula in New York State, legendary for its in the state can be found at www.pattern-for-progress.org] layers of complexity, is also noted for the political considerations that impact it Across the state, the cost per pupil over the 10-year period each year. The result is a formula that, went from $11,871 to $20,410. Enrollment dropped from while it begs for reform and has been the 2.87 million to 2.78 million in the same time period. subject of many attempts, still resists it at *Cost per pupil reflects the NYS Education Department formula using total its most basic level. expenditures.
Enrollment 2000*
2,351 2,991 742 784 4,689 8,178 10,092 1,804 4,859 1,942 2,140 3,237
Enrollment 2010*
1,545 2,265 577 675 4,050 7,166 8,904 1,615 4,422 1,768 1,982 3,037
-34% -24% -22% -14% -14% -12% -12% -10% -9% -9% -7% -6%
13% 35% 20% 104% 35% 36% 23% 65% 24% 39% 91% 44%
Data: NYS Education Department. *State aid enrollment-count method varies slightly from that used in State Report Card numbers. ** Selected to represent various counties in the region from among districts where enrollment is declining.
SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS THAT ENHANCE THE GROWTH AND VITALITY OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
Enrollment declines are now affecting the vast majority of school districts in the Hudson Valley. The Cornell Program on Applied Demographics, a leader in demographic research facilities, has projected school enrollments through 2020 in New York State, and the drop in student numbers is pronounced.
in-migration for Cornwall has now slowed as has the birth rate, two factors affecting many other districts.
RANK Within county O-1 O-2 O-3 O-4 O-5 O-6 O-7 O-8 O-9 O-10 O-11 O-12 O-13 O-14 O-15 O-16
1993
2000
Peak
2010
Change From 2020 Peak Year to projection** 2020 440 554 893 2,665 4,010 3,856 4,446 10,782 5,358 4,180 838 7,388 2,996 1,091 7,174 4,278 60,949 180 3,000 4,342 1,774 4,591 912 14,799 8,034 8,157 3,273 7,883 2,240 2,587 4,617 3,226 40,017 190 1,197 531 614 1,473 1,084 3,483 1,298 9,870 1,331 1,971 6,339 2,751 1,637 2,126 1,912 3,310 1,799 23,176 -33% -34% -27% -25% -22% -18% -16% -15% -13% -11% -7% -2% 1% 3% 5% 24% -10% -40% -19% -19% -9% -7% 1% -14% -15% -12% -6% -4% -3% -3% -3% 5% -8% -48% -32% -31% -21% -21% -13% -12% -11% -19% -46% -34% -23% -21% -18% -11% -11% -10% -7% -21%
Orange County Tuxedo Union Free SD (2006) 13 Greenwood Lake UFSD (1996) 11 Highland Falls CSD (2002) 21 Port Jervis City SD (1998) 26 Washingtonville CSD (2002) 30 Warwick Valley CSD (2003) 41 Valley Central SD (2002) 43 Newburgh City SD (2003) 51 Pine Bush CSD (2005) 55 Minisink Valley CSD (2005) 64 Florida UFSD (2003) 71 Monroe-Woodbury CSD (2007) 87 Goshen CSD (2009) 91 Chester UFSD (2010) 97 104 Middletown City SD (2010) 114 Cornwall CSD (2010) Orange County Totals Putnam County Garrison UFSD (2002) 6 Brewster CSD (2003) 37 Mahopac CSD (2004) 38 Putnam Valley CSD (2002) 67 Carmel CSD (2002) 70 Haldane CSD (2009) 93 Putnam County Totals Rockland County Clarkstown CSD (2006) 49 East Ramapo CSD (Spring Valley) (1998) 57 South Orangetown CSD (2006) 74 Haverstraw-Stony Point CSD (2003) 79 Nanuet UFSD (2006) 81 Pearl River UF SD (2009) 84 Ramapo Central SD (Suffern) (2005) 86 102 Nyack UFSD (1995) Rockland County Totals Sullivan County Roscoe CSD (1993) 3 Sullivan West CSD (1999) 15 Livingston Manor CSD (1995) 17 Eldred CSD (1996) 32 Liberty CSD (1995) 33 Tri-Valley CSD (2004) 56 Monticello CSD (2010) 58 Fallsburg CSD (2006) 61 Sullivan County Totals
439 725 1,043 3,483 4,429 3,453 4,468 11,057 5,536 3,571 634 5,396 2,337 859 5,392 2,465
549 623 655 781 547 844 1,172 1,229 1,019 3,427 3,555 2,957 4,999 5,122 4,451 4,265 4,681 4,166 5,014 5,319 4,810 12,255 12,672 11,227 5,819 6,174 5,696 4,182 4,680 4,425 804 849 903 6,829 7,503 7,375 2,660 2,973 2,951 932 1,055 1,055 6,235 6,828 6,828 2,848 3,457 3,457 67,650 271 3,471 4,943 1,360 4,856 846 299 3,726 5,377 1,945 4,956 902 17,205 9,473 9,299 3,478 8,229 2,314 2,664 4,751 3,082 43,290 368 1,755 768 779 1,866 1,246 3,955 1,460 12,197 2,469 2,974 8,237 3,472 2,002 2,391 2,137 3,658 1,943 29,283 260 3,421 4,949 1,819 4,581 892
In school enrollment projections published by the Cornell Program on Applied Demographics, the regions rural districts are seeing the greatest declines, but almost every district is touched by the downward trend. Even Cornwall, which had been leading the region in growth, is now slowing to a near halt from its peak which occurred in 2010, new Information from BOCES reveals.
Ulster County Onteora CSD (1998) U-1 2,311 4 Rondout Valley CSD (1998) U-2 2,760 12 Kingston City SD (2001) U-3 7,554 29 Saugerties CSD (1997) U-4 3,316 34 Ellenville CSD (1994) U-5 1,947 40 New Paltz CSD (2000) U-6 2,225 62 Marlboro CSD (2005) U-7 2,046 65 Wallkill CSD (2006) U-8 3,166 66 Highland CSD (2005) U-9 1,813 69 Ulster County Totals Data: Cornell University Program on Applied Demographics
*Projections include the vast majority of school districts in the region. In rare cases, data was unavailable due to reconfiguration. **Of the projections tracks available from Cornell, shown are the robust figures, i.e. those that are less influenced by a single outlying value.
Meanwhile, projected enrollments through 2020 say more than half the districts will see decreases in their student bodies and in 18 of these the decline will be more than 5%. The tiny Mount Pleasant district has already shrunk to half its 2008 peak-year size. Some city school districts are also in the enrollment slide. Mount Vernon School District is predicted to decline to 7,518 students by 2020 from a peak of more than 10,000 students in 1999.
1993 104 1,967 9,609 1,658 3,395 1,206 289 1,071 2,287 2,934 1,879 1,252 3,023 1,073 2,145 2,488 1,289 2,474 1,133 3,037 846 992 1,604 1,762 5,324 3,710 139 20,523 3,748 1,397 1,078 191 8,120 1,115 980 1,868 5,575 1,065 1,956 645 3,029 3,199 2000 135 1,893 9,884 2,152 4,081 1,744 326 1,568 2,778 3,987 2,483 1,581 3,869 1,394 2,719 2,912 1,643 3,318 1,386 3,823 1,201 1,267 1,807 2,352 6,237 4,314 164 24,682 4,562 1,678 1,401 274 9,806 1,345 966 2,427 6,546 1,336 2,472 871 3,360 3,867 Peak 239 2,085 10,167 2,343 4,234 1,998 338 1,797 2,887 4,115 2,818 1,688 4,245 1,416 3,453 2,967 1,846 3,539 1,760 4,359 1,555 1,573 2,014 2,804 6,354 4,766 396 24,916 5,050 1,940 1,569 344 10,596 1,461 1,056 3,114 6,954 1,502 3,175 980 4,183 4,238 148,834 2010 103 1,630 8,454 2,042 3,796 1,799 280 1,631 2,621 3,773 2,714 1,609 4,106 1,325 3,453 2,845 1,800 3,539 1,726 4,359 1,522 1,573 2,012 2,804 6,282 4,766 396 24,002 5,050 1,916 1,539 340 10,596 1,445 1,056 3,081 6,954 1,487 3,175 939 4,183 4,238 2020 Projection** 118 1,464 7,518 1,797 3,323 1,588 273 1,501 2,442 3,481 2,492 1,497 3,776 1,297 3,243 2,799 1,746 3,372 1,706 4,232 1,511 1,550 1,985 2,810 6,424 4,826 408 25,693 5,240 2,024 1,638 360 11,095 1,551 1,127 3,324 7,432 1,631 3,485 1,089 4,655 4,782 144,305 Change From Peak Year to 2020 -51% -30% -26% -23% -22% -21% -19% -16% -15% -15% -12% -11% -11% -8% -6% -6% -5% -5% -3% -3% -3% -1% -1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 9% 10% 11% 11% 13% -3%
The Sophie Finn School in the City of Kingston will be converted to college use.
After the Garden Street School in Brewster (Putnam County) closed last June, the school district partnered with the Village of Brewster to develop a plan for the best and most feasible re-use of the 1925, residentially sited building. The village does not want to see the school building go vacant for long and hopes to possibly add it to the tax base. Two main concepts have emerged: conversion of the building to affordable senior housing or to a film production studio with performing arts space. Other ideas have included: conversion to high-end condominiums for professionals commuting to New York via Metro-North; creation of a charter school; or establishment of a college satellite campus.
SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS THAT ENHANCE THE GROWTH AND VITALITY OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
Shaping the Conversation about Declining Enrollments, Closing Schools and Regionalizing Districts
Barring a significant spike in new jobs or a catalyst the magnitude of 9/11, the enrollment crisis in our schools may be with us for years. The challenges created by the demographic shift are considerable, stretching from the closure of school buildings to the idea of consolidating districts. Despite the challenges, solutions and new approaches are possible.
4. Track the progress of New NY Education Reforms. The Cuomo administration has established what it calls the New NY Education Reform Commission. Its work is reflected in the recently enacted 2013-14 budget. The budget calls for $92 million (an increase of 4.9%) more in school aid, the 2. Seek greater consolidation incentives. distribution of which should perhaps be questioned given Any district wishing to explore consolidation will have an ally in the systems mediocre results, in addition to current and New York State Education Commissioner John King. A hallprojected enrollment declines. mark of Kings tenure as head of the states public school system has been his repeated remarks about the need to simplify 5. Explore other ways to configure public education. Public education is organized by district or by city boundaries a system with nearly 700 districts, more than half of which educate fewer than 2,000 students each. Gov. Andrew Cuomo in New York state. According to the Education Commission of the States, numerous states use structures other than dishas said the same, referring pointedly to the states over tricts in defining school governance. Hawaii has a statewide abundance of school districts in his 2013 State of the State address. While Cuomo pledged renewed encouragement for school district. In Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, reorganization the recently enacted 2013-14 state budget did Nevada, South Carolina, West Virginia, the public education systems are organized largely as county-wide districts. In 18 not include a marked increase in this type of aid, beyond the other states, public education systems support variations on current incentives and grant opportunities. the regional theme to some extent.
For more information
Visit the Pattern for Progress website for more school enrollment and finance information, including comparative state aid and cost per pupil figures.
Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress is the policy, planning and advocacy organization that creates regional, balanced and sustainable solutions to quality-of-life issues by bringing together business, nonprofit, academic and government leaders to collaborate on regional approaches to affordable/workforce housing, municipal sharing and local government efficiency, land use policy, transportation and infrastructure issues that most impact the growth and vitality of the regional economy. Become a member of Pattern and be part of the solution!