Relia bility, Ava ila bility

and Maintainability
CHAPTER CONTENTS

Introduction... program....... safety.... Definitions Failure Modes Failure Rates" ConstanUExponential Distribution. . Failure Rate Data........ Conditional Probability/Bayes' Theorem.
Benefits of a RAM Reliability and
.....

.............347 ................34g ...............3sl

....352

.....35s

...........356
.......

.35g

.............364
.....364

INTRODUCTION
Reliabiliry Availability, and Maintainability (RAID pfogfams are anintegral part of any risk management system. techniques possess many similarities to those used for -RAM safety that were discussed in chaptet" < 5. However, ,rr.t.f difference between R \M and safery analyses is ^ia to talk that itls possible about optimum reliabiliry i.e., the point at which a dollar spent on improving reliability leaos to less than a cost-avefaged dollar in benefits, as ilrustrated k nig.rr."7.t. \rith safety, however, there is no real optimum yalue; all incidents are unacceptable. Figure 7.1 shows that as funds are initiaily expended on improved reliab'ity, the incfemental fevenue is greater than the money spent (when factored over the normal capital investment period). However, there is an optimum point, above which a d,ollar spent on improved reliability generates less than a dollar ir, iir" cycle incremental revenue (i.e. the srope of the curwe becomes lessthan uniry). r" f.u.rr.., there is rarery sufficient data to be abre to develop a curye such as Figure 7.1 with precision. Never_ theless, it is usefur to keep in mind that a reliabirity prog.um is not, in and of itserf, its own justification' It has to demonstfate that an investment in reliability will lead to an increase in profits. Figure 7'2 shows three causes for losses. The first is that the sales of the product are down. Even though the facility can make product, the market is not buying it, so rates have to be cut back' The second cause in nlgure 7.2 is todo with scheduled turnarounds during which equipment that cannot be mlintained while it is operating is workecl on. (A strong asset integrity program may help reduce the amount oiri-. needed for such
Process Risk and Reliability Manaeement Copyright O 2010, Ian Surton. publishecl by Elsevier Inc. AII righrs

resened.

347

CHAPTER

Reliability, Availability and Maintainability

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Reliability Payout

on flnding and correcting the important few factors that contribure

scheduled downtime, and ignoring the unimportant many.

turnarounds but they are not usually part of the RAM process.) Non-sc:.,: the third element in Figure 7.2, are the focus of this chapter. Naturally, it is not possible to identify and correct all possible cau:.: ,,: loss. Therefore it is suggested that the pareto principle (described in ch,::- * to flnd and correct the major problem areas, as shown in Figure 7 .3. The r ,crs {
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BENEFITS OF A RAM PROGRAM

The benefits of an effective RAM program include the following:

Increased Production
A reliable facility will make more money because it will operate for lr-::.Er: of time . The extra production will increase revenlles (assuming that the i:r.-ii

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Benefits of a RAM program 349

FilTURE

7.3

sell all that it makes). Furthermore, the incremental production is very profltabre because all of the fixed and semi-fixed costs of production such as rents and salaries will have been covered by the base-line production.

semi-fixed costs such as payro', taxes, equipm.nt d.pr..iation, and rent4ease payments' It is in the range go% to roo% that the profits are made. Therefore, if availability can be increased by ,,only,, l%, frombSy" ,o 9G%, profitability will increase by 2O%.

Increased profitability Figure 7.4 shows a faclity where the first 9O%

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7.4

Reliability and Profitabiliiy

350

CHAPTER

Reliabitity, Availabitity and Maintainabitity

Increased Productivity An unreliable facility will experience increased losses, most of *-i::i ,. shutdown and re-start, for reasons such as flaring of waste gases :: -spec products, and reduced reactor selectivities. such situations 1 . , r:rL i: a loss of materials but also create an increase in energy consumpti,::_ :,:-.]. equipment items will have to be cooled down and then re-heare : JlLu items such as pumps, compfessors, and fired heatefs have to "r..: even thoLrgh they are on total recycle.
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Minimal Investment Productivity improvements can often be achieved with minimal ;.;1.q; example, a pump in production-critical service may fail once eref-. --:-::-: If each pump failure leads to production losses of $ 15,000 then the --- uii" this problem is $60,000. Investigation into the pump failures shos s ::; down rate could be greatly reduced if a preventive maintenance S1'Sir:: ir, implemented, so that problems can be addressed before the pump ".- . ilii, is predicted that the new failure rate will be once per year, equi\-alr:: $15,000 per year. Hence the annual savings that flow from thi pre\--:.,, : nance pfogfam ate $45,000. If the preventive maintenance system .i, : -r;iil costs say $10,000 to implement and $5,000 per year to run, then trr ::. over a period of five years is $190,000 (ignoring the discounted r-al:: and the return on investment is very high indeed.
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Reduced Maintenance Costs W.hen a facility operates smoothly, the cost of maintenance goes i -;, l fewer spare parts will have to be purchased, and labor costs - parir- _-irr,"i' time will be reduced.

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Reduced Inventories The response to reliability problems is often to increase the number ,-, and the qlrantify of raw materials. As reliability improves, these inveni reduced. Reduced Capital Costs

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RAM program is effective at squeezing more production frc,: equipment, it may be possible to postpone or cancel plans to builc t:,_: facilities. Customer Satisfaction A facility that operates reliably will have more satisfied customers bec._..: will be fewer problems with off-spec products and missed deliven- dart:
Personal Recognition

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facility manager when he was evaluating some reliability software. Hi r,-r,r the software salesperson, "I see what yoll're selling you're selling job se _--,.*:r,

Managers recognize that a smoothly operating facility makes them look g,-, ,_ iT :ltilr]r, eyes of their bosses, whereas frequent upsets and shutdowns reflect neg:=, : i the perception of a manager's competence. This insight was recognize : :, ,r*il,rr,,
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Moreover, when a facility is running smoothly, a manager has time to der-e1 .: r{r,${{ and positive programs that develop both his or her own career and the cer..:*.

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