Water Supply and Wastewater Projections

Water Supply and Wastewater
Removal
Population Growth and
Forecast
Instructor: Parjang Monajemi
Spring 1391
Design period
Water distribution systems are generally
designed for a predecided time span called
design period. It varies from 20 to 40 years,
whereas the working life of pipelines varies from
60 to 120 years.

Design period are chosen with the following
factors in mind:
1. Useful life of component structures and equipment
2. Ease or difficulty of extending or adding to existing
and planned works.
3. Anticipated rate of population growth.
4. Going rate of interests on bonded indebtedness.

Water Supply and Wastewater Removal
Population Growth & Forecast
2
5. Performance of the works during their early years
when they will not be loaded to capacity.

3
Swamee and Sharma, 2008
Type of Structure Special Characteristic
Design
Period
Large dam and conduits Hard and costly to enlarge 25-50
Wells distribution systems
and filter plants
Easy to
extend
when growth and
interest rates are low
20-25
when growth and
interest rates are high
10-15
Pipes more than 12 in. in
diameter
Replacement of smaller pipes is
more costly in long run
20-25
Lateral and submains less
than 12 in. in diameter
Requirements may change fast in
limited areas
Full
development
Lateral and secondary mains
less than 15 in. in diameter
Requirements may change fast in
limited areas
Full
development
Main sewers, outfalls and
interceptors
Hard and costly to enlarge

40-50
Treatment works
when growth and interest rates are
low
20-25
when growth and interest rates are
high
10-20
4
S
e
w
e
r
s

|

W
a
t
e
r

s
u
p
p
l
y

Fair et al, 1966
Short Term Estimates and Long
Term Forecast:
To determine the flows that water and
wastewater treatment facilities need to be
designed for, some form of projection must be
made. For industrial facilities, production may
need to be projected into the future, since the
use of water and the production of wastewater
are directly related to industrial production.
Design of recreational facilities, resort
communities, commercial establishments, and
the like all need some form of projection of the
quantities of water use and wastewater
produced. In determining the design flows for a
community, the population in the future needs
to be predicted. Knowledge of the population,
5
then enables the determination of the flows.
This section, therefore, deals with the various
methods of predicting population.
Population growth is the change in a population over
time, and can be quantified as the change in the
number of individuals of any species in a population
using per unit time for measurement.
Population growth is determined by four factors,
births, deaths, immigrants, and emigrants.
Using a formula expressed as P(B-D)+(I-E).
In other words, the population growth of a
period can be calculated in two parts, natural
growth of population (B-D) and mechanical
growth of population (I-E),in which Mechanical
6
growth of population is mainly affected by social factors,
e.g. the advanced economies are growing faster
while the backward economies are growing
slowly even with negative growth.

1. Arithmetic growth: if the population increase
is unvarying and independent of population size
the population growth is arithmetic. Whether or
not this assumption is true in the past is, of
course, subject to question. Thus, this method
is applicable only for population projections a
short term into the future.

7
a
dP
k
dt
=
2. Geometric growth: sometimes called
the simple exponential growth model, is
essentially exponential growth based on a
constant rate of compound interest. In
geometric growth rate the variation in
population is assumed to be proportional to the
population
8
0 0
P t
g g g
P t
dP dP dP
k P k dt k dt
dt P P
= = =
} }
( )
0
0
g
K t t
P Pe

=
( ) ( )
2 1
2 1
ln ln
g
P P
k
t t
Forecast the population of Los Angeles for the

year 2020 and determine the growth rate.

9
year population
1850 1610
1860 4385
1870 5728
1880 11183
1890 50395
1900 102479
1910 319198
1920 576673
1930 1238048
Year Population
1940 1504277
1950 1970358
1960 2479015
1970 2816061
1980 2966850
1990 3485398
2000 3694820
2010 3792621
Data adapted from www.wikipedia.com

10
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

year
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

Year
( )
( ) ( )
2 1
2 1
2 1
2 1
ln ln
g
K t t
g
P P
P Pe k
t t

= =
( ) ( )
ln 3485398 ln 1970358
1.4%
1990 1950
g
k

= =

11
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 0 2020
1 0
2020
ln ln ln ln 3485398
1.4%
2020 1990
5, 304, 642
g
P P P
k
t t
P

= =

=
( ) ( )
ln 1238048 ln 1610
8.3%
1930 1850
g
k

= =
For the years b/w 1850 to 1930 the growth rate was:
Logistic growth: If food and environmental
conditions are at the optimum, organisms,
including humans, will reproduce at the
geometric rate. In reality, however, the
geometric rate is slowed down by environmental
constraints such as decreasing rate of food
supply, overcrowding, death, and so on. In
concept, the factor for the environmental
constraints can take several forms, provided, it,
in fact, slows down the growth
The assumption made for considering the
environmental constraints is that the rate of
reproduction is proportional to both the existing
population and the amount of available
12
resources, all else being equal. Verhulst derived
his logistic equation to describe the self-limiting
growth of a biological population.

13
( )
'
1
L sat
L
sat
dP
k P P P
dt
dP P
k P
dt P
=
| |
=
|
\ .
( )
1 2
2 1 1 2
2 1 2 2 3 1 3
2 1 3 2
2
2 1 3
1
ln
2
for
sat
L
sat
sat
P P P
k
t t P P P
P PP P P PP
t t t t P
P PP
| |
| |
=
|
|
|

\ .
\ .
+
= =

14
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0
0
0
1
1
1 1
ln ln
ln ln
L
L
L L
sat
sat
L
sat
P
t
L sat L
t
P
sat
k t t sat sat
L
sat sat
k t t
sat
sat
dP P dP
k P k dt
dt P
P
P
P
dP k dt
P P P
dP dP
k dt P P P k t
P P P
P P P P P
P
k t t e
P P P P P P
P
P P P e
P P
| |
= =
|
| |
\ .

|
\ .
| |
+ =
|
|
\ .
| |
+ = =
|
|
\ .

= =

=

15
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
L L
L
L
L
L
L
k t t k t t
sat
sat sat
k t t
sat
k t t
sat
sat
k t t
k t t sat
sat
sat
k t t
sat
P P
P e P e
P P P P
P
P e
P P
P e
P P
P P
P
e
e
P
P P
P
P
P P
e
P

| |
+ =
|
|

\ .
= =
| | | |
+
+
| |
|
\ .
\ .
=
| |
+
|
\ .
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

Year
Using logistic equation for the previous
example:
16
( )
3
2
1
3,694,820 3,485,398 3,694,820 3,694,820 3,792,621 23,485,398 3,792,621
3,694,820 3,485,398 3,792,621
3,869,631
sat
P
+
=

=
1
3,869,631 3,485,398 1 3,694,820
ln 8.5%
2010 2000 3,485,398 3,869,631 3,694,820
L
k
| |
| |
= =
|
|

\ .
\ .
( )
( ) 0.085 2020 2010 0
0
3,869,631
3,836,201
3,869,631 3,694,820
1
3,694,820
P
e

= =
| |
+
|
\ .
P
sat
K
L
P
2020
3,869,631 8.5% 3,836,201

17
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

Year
P
0
P
sat
K
L
P
2020
19,565 3,868,232 0.053% 3,776,095
Domestic consumption reported by various
countries is not necessarily comparable mainly
because there is no assurance that the figures
quoted are produced on the same basis. In the
USA the typical in-house consumption
(excluding cooling) is 180230 lcd but this can
be expected to reduce gradually with increased
installation of low flush toilets and reduced rates
of consumption by other fittings. Average
domestic plus small trade consumption reported
by European countries for 2002 (IWA, 2004)
centred about 150160 lcd (range 100330
lcd).
Water usage varies both in quantity and timing
18
Water Consumption
during the week, the pattern for working days
being relatively consistent with morning and
evening peaks coinciding with leaving for and
returning from work and school. However, at
weekends demand tends to increase and diurnal
peaks are often later than during the week and
are of greater magnitude. Cultural and religious
characteristics of a supply area and religious
days and public holidays can also influence
weekly and seasonal demand patterns. For
example during Ramadan, domestic per capita
demand increases and the diurnal pattern
switches from day to night with peaks coinciding
with sunrise and sunset.
19

20

21

22

23

24
Nemerow et al, 2009
References:
1. Swamee and Sharma, 2008, Design of water
supply pipe networks. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
2. Nemerow, N., L., Agardy, F., J., Sullivan, P.,
and Salvato, J., A., 2009, Environmental
Engineering, sixth edition, John Wiley & Sons,
Inc.
3. Fair, G., M., Geyer, J., C., and Okun, D., A.,
1966, Water and Wastewater Engineering,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

25

Water Supply and Wastewater Projections

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