Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 21, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 21, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Dollar Index (DX) depreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade. Indian Rupee fell to lowest level in last two and half month. Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session . Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of expectations that US Federal Reserve may ends its bond buying program soon in near term. Further, Bank of Japan can also declare stimulus measures also exerted downside pressure on the markets. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.6 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of expectations that US Federal Reserve will end its bond buying program soon. Further, weak US equities markets also prevented sharp fall in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 83.8 and closed at 83.84 on Monday. The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers. Additionally, weak global and domestic market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, negative outlook for the country by the Standard and Poor rating agency acted as a negative factor for the Indian Rupee However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 55.135 and closed at 55.03 against dollar on Monday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.12,950.90 crores th ($2,382.97 million) as on 20 May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.73,987.30 crores ($13,693.30 million) till 20 May 2013.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 55.03 Prev day -0.3

as on 20 May, 2013 w-o-w -0.4 m-o-m -1.5 y-o-y -1.1

$/Euro (Spot)

1.2882

0.3

-0.7

-1.4

0.8

Dollar Index NIFTY

83.84

-0.6

0.6

1.2

5.5

6156.9

-0.5

3.0

5.5

26.4

SENSEX

20224.0

-0.3

2.7

5.5

10.6

DJIA

15335.3

-0.1

1.6

4.2

24.0

S&P

1666.3

-0.1

2.0

7.1

28.6

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak Dollar index. However, sharp rise in the currency was capped on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with worries over economic growth of the country. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.2901 and closed at 1.2882 against dollar on Monday.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 21, 2013

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Spot gold prices increased by 2.6 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of weakness in DX. However, SPDR gold trust holding continued to decline, which capped sharp upside in the prices. Further, fears among the investors that the US Federal Reserve may start trimming its bond buying purchasing programme prevented sharp rallies in the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1398.6/oz and closed at $1393.65/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on positive note in the yesterday trading session taking cues from spot gold prices and closed at Rs.26088/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 26339/10 gms on Monday. Depreciation in the Indian rupee supported prices to trade in green.

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)

Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1393.7 25550.0 Prev. day 2.6 -1.1

as on 20 May, 2013 WoW -2.5 -4.4 MoM -2.2 -3.3 YoY -12.4 -11.3

1354.8

-1.0

-5.3

-4.9

-14.8

$/oz

1384.3

1.4

-2.8

-1.7

-12.1

Rs /10 gms

26088.0

0.8

-2.9

-1.0

-9.8

Source: Reuters

Silver
Taking cues from rise in spot gold prices along with upside in the base metal packs, Spot silver prices gained by 3.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session. Further, weakness in DX supported prices to trade positive. However, mixed global market sentiments capped sharp upside in the prices. The white metal prices touched an intra-day high of $23.08 /oz and closed at $22.9/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices increased by 1.0 percent on the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 43263/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 44294/kg on Monday.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 22.9 43000.0 Prev day 3.1 -2.3

as on 20 May, 2013 WoW -2.9 -6.0 MoM -2.0 -6.8 YoY -20.1 -20.6

$/oz $/ oz

2166.0 2256.8

-3.8 0.0

-8.5 -3.4

-8.2 -1.1

-23.9 -20.3

Rs / kg

43263.0

1.0

-4.1

-1.0

-20.6

Source: Reuters

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative note on the back of expectations that US Federal Reserves may start trimming bound buying purchasing programme. Additionally, SPDR gold trust holding fell by 0.7 percent to 1031.5 metric tons on Monday lowest since March 2009, which may keep prices under pressure. Further, strength in DX may exert downside pressure on the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp downside in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for May 21, 2013 Support 1378/1370 25900/25750 22.30/21.95 42800/42200 Resistance 1397/1405 26250/26400 22.70/23.00 43700/44200

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 21, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.7 percent yesterday taking cues from unrest in the Syria and leading to supply concerns from the Middle East region. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the crude oil prices. Further, Saudi Arabia which is the biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) exported 7.42 million barrels a day in March which is down 30,000 barrels a month ago acted as a positive factor for the oil prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $97.11/bbl and closed at $96.70/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 0.6 percent and closed at Rs.5,329/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5358/bbl on Monday. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee also supported an upside in the crude oil prices. API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to th fall by 0.4 million barrels for the week ending on 17 May 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 0.1 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to shoot up by 0.6 million barrels for the same week. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of unrest in the Middle East region thereby creating the supply concerns. Further, expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories will also support an upside in the prices. Additionally, decline in crude oil exports from OPEC in the month of March will act as a positive factor for the crude oil prices. However, sharp upside in the prices will be capped on account of strength in the DX coupled with weak global market sentiments. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support an upside in the crude oil prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude May13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for May 21, 2013 Support 95.90/94.80 5300/5240 Resistance 97.70/98.60 5400/5450
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (May 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 96.3 105.1 96.7 Prev. day 0.6 0.7 0.7 WoW 1.6 3.0 1.6

as on 20 May, 2013 MoM 8.4 4.8 8.4 YoY 5.2 -3.4 5.7

$/bbl

104.8

0.2

1.9

4.4

-2.2

Rs/bbl

5329.0

0.6

1.8

10.2

5.8
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (May 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.09 226.6 Prev. day 0.8 0.3

as on 20 May, 2013

WoW 3.89 5.30

MoM -6.88 -4.23

YoY 50.09 54.04

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 21, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a positive note on the back of weakness in DX. Further, mixed LME inventories kept prices under pressure. However, mixed global market sentiments coupled with expectation among the investors that the US Federal Reserves may start trimming its bound buying programme capped sharp upside in the prices. In the Indian market depreciation in the Indian rupee supported prices to trade in green. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel $/tonne 15070.0 1.6 -1.8 -1.5 -10.5 Rs /kg 101.4 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -8.5 $/tonne 1862.0 0.4 -0.1 -1.6 -9.5 Rs/kg 409.0 0.7 0.1 9.1 -2.8 $/tonne Last 7388.5 Prev. day 1.1 as on 20 May, 2013 WoW -0.1 MoM -5.8 YoY -3.5

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack increased by 1.1 percent on the back of weakness in DX. Further, decline in LME inventories by 0.3 percent to 628,025 tonnes supported prices to trade in green. However, worries over decline in demand for industrial metal from the largest consumer China capped sharp upside in the prices. Additionally, mixed global market sentiments prevented sharp rise in the prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7430/tonne and closed at $7388.5/tonne yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices ended on positive note on the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 409/kg on Monday after touching an intra-day high of Rs 410.9 kg. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note on the back of expectation among the Investors that the US may start trimming its bond buying purchasing programme. Additionally, worries over Chinas economic growth may act as a negative factor for the prices. Further, strength in DX coupled with rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments may exert downside pressure on the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may cushion sharp decline in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for May 21, 2013 Support 407/403 100.5/99.8 111.3/110.5 100.5/99.5 820/814 Resistance 412/415 102/103 113/114 102.5/103.5 835/842

(3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)
Source: Reuters

Rs /kg

827.9

1.3

-1.6

0.1

-10.1

$/tonne

2041.3

1.4

1.4

1.8

4.0

Rs /kg

112.1

0.9

1.9

3.7

4.7

$/tonne

1855.3

0.7

-0.6

-1.3

-1.9

Rs /kg

101.1

0.5

-0.3

0.8

-2.4

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 20th May 628,025 5,231,125 178,758 1,114,175 239,375 17th May 629,950 5,238,500 177,948 1,113,875 240,875 Actual Change -1,925 -7,375 810 300 -1,500 (%) Change -0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.0 -0.6
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| May 21, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator German PPI m/m CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y Treasury Sec Lew Speaks FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Country Europe UK UK UK US US Time (IST) 11:30am 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 7:30pm 9:00pm Actual Forecast -0.1% 2.6% -1.2% 3.1% Previous -0.2% 2.8% -0.1% 3.3% Impact Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium

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