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you should invest in Bitcoin

Tuur Demeester

Is Bitcoin a bubble?

Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq




trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values

ECB-report virtual currency schemes, october 2012

Crypto currency is a technology!

Skype user adopHon curve

Skype user adopHon curve

Price of Bitcoin Madness

or merely reecHng a parabolic adopHon curve

Trial and error
Kraken.com, Bitbox.mx, Crypto.st, Stage.btc.uy, LaHncoin.com,

Bitcoin friendly jurisdicHons (oshore) Decentralized exchange methods

Ripple/opencoin, Bitcoin OTC, open transacHons

Growth of goods & services market

It cannot be ruled out that non-banks will develop more independent strategies and will no longer need to ally themselves with banks.
ECB report Virtual Currency Schemes, october 2012

Price discovery

Source: h^p://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg

Bitcoin money supply

New System vs. Old System

Fiat money supply

Central Banks buy debt

hence the bond bubble

When is debt unsustainable?

When is debt unsustainable?

From bail-out to bail-in

Crossing the rubicon?

FSB, july 19 2011

What? proposed policy measures to resolve [large banks] without systemic disrupHon and without exposing the taxpayer to the risk of loss

FSB, july 19 2011

Specics? proposed essenHal elements of a bail-in regime to enable creditor-nanced recapitalisaHon of nancial insHtuHons.

Basically it can mean this:

FSB, july 19 2011

By when? By december 2012, the resoluHon plans should be completed.

Where bail-in is being prepared

The bail-in



Axis Title


imf.org bis.org





0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

In other words, todays risks are:

Bank holidays Bond, real estate crash HyperinaHon in the currency

The good news

Bitcoin thrives in ArgenHna

Future value of Bitcoin

we are here

Future value of one bitcoin if...

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Hedge funds allocate 1% to BTC

ArgenHnes change greenbacks for BTC

Gold owners sell 1% for BTC

Future value of one bitcoin if...

0 200.000 400.000 600.000

Shadow economy uses BTC

BTC becomes the new gold

BTC becomes the worlds reserve currency

Cryptocurrency: more than Bitcoin

Bitcoin mining Stock markets Bond markets AlternaHve cryptocurrencies

Thank you! > TuurDemeester.com > tuur@tuurdemeester.com

Slide 10: source is blockchain.info Slide 16: source is wikipedia Slide 19: h^p://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/money-supply-acceleraHng.html Slide 20: source is ZeroHedge Slide 21: source is SocGen: h^p://media.rtl.nl/media/nancien/rtlz/2009/socgen2011.pdf Slide 22: Source is h^p://group30.org/images/PDF/orHz091211.pdf Slide 23: source is Haver AnalyHcs Slide 25, 26, 28: EecHve resoluHon of systemically important nancial insHtuHons recommendaHons and Hmelines, by the Financial Stability Board, july 19th 2011. Slide 27: Source is h^ps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160292 Slide 29: Source is h^p://www.nancialstabilityboard.org/publicaHons/r_130419b.pdf , for Canada: google.com/news. Slide 30: own research Slide 33-34: localbitcoins.com

Slide 39-40: Sources are own calculaHons, based on: Bitcoin price: h^p://www.bitcoincharts.com BTC transacHon volume: h^p://blockchain.info/charts/esHmated-transacHon-volume-usd Hedge Funds: h^ps://www.hedgefundresearch.com/pdf/pr_20130419.pdf Remi^ance: h^p://gulfnews.com/business/economy/global-remi^ance-ow-grows-10-77-to-514-billion- in-2012-world-bank-1.1172693 Oshore, data used is from Bank for InternaHonal Se^lements: h^p://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/ publicaHon-and-research/research/research-notes/RN-01-2012.pdf Black market: h^p://www.voxeu.org/arHcle/shadow-economies-around-world-model-based-esHmates h^p://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/arHcle/ALeqM5h1gBH30nCS4C4QEQC998r9Qnc90Q?docId=CNG. 507ec2ee2770ea21ef8b2af057ac350b.91 World GDP: h^ps://www.google.com/publicdata/explore? ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=world%20gdp TMS of world reserve currency: h^p://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/money-supply- acceleraHng.html