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Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the companys filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.
1 2 3
Financial Highlights
Agenda
Financial Highlights
1Q13 Results
Pulp Production and Sales (000 t) Net Revenue (R$ million)
1,853 1,332 1,313 1,370 1,510 1,263 1,186 1,449 1,274
+14%
1Q12
4Q12
Production Sales
1Q12
4Q12
1Q13
Cash cost
1Q12
4Q12
1Q13
Debt
Net Debt (R$ million) and Leverage (x)
5.2 4.8 4.2 8,965 8,462 8,557 4.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 7,745 7,516 3.1 4.7 4.5
Net Debt/EBITDA (R$) (x) Net Debt/EBITDA (US$) (x)
1Q12
Closing FX (R$/US$) 1.82
2Q12
2.02
3Q12
2.03
4Q12
2.04
1Q13
2.01
2,871
11,031
994
807
648
1Q12
4Q12
1Q13
6
FCF Yield
7% 836
6%
2012
1Q13 LTM
As announced in our quarterly reports, Fibria resumed part of its receivable discount operations in May/13. It will positively impact the 2Q13 results.
7
Fibria delivers one of the highest EBITDA/t and FCF/t of the industry
1,153
156 (10)
Taxes/Others
(3)
SG&A
EBITDA
CAPEX
(2)
2012
(1) On a cash basis, does not include depreciation, amortization and depletion (2) Includes advance to forest partner program | (3) IR/CS and other
2.01
844
810
751
773
562
EBITDA Margin
40% 34%
36%
38%
28%
2,526 1,964
2,253
2,440
1,697
2009
2010
2011
2012
1Q13 LTM
30% 20%
10%
10% 0%
-6%
-5%
Soy
Pulp price has the lowest historical volatility(1) among all commodities. Considering pulp price in US$, a low correlation with hard commodities and traditional assets is observed. With a low correlation the inclusion of BHKP in the portfolio expands the efficient frontier of a commodities portfolio(2).
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Volatilidade (% a.a.) 20% 25%
Since 2009 Considering the expected return of a portfolio comprised of: DJ, Ibovespa Index , Oil, Copper, Niquel, Libor 3M in US Dollar and BHKP. R multiple regression of 80%
10
5.0
4.3
3.4
3.1 2.2
Mar/10
Jun/10
Sep/10
Dec/10
Mar/11
Jun/11
Sep/11
Dec/11
Mar/12
Jun/12
Sep/12
Dec/12
Mar/13
2013E
Ratings
Fibria S&P Moodys Fitch BB+/Stable Ba1/Stable BB+/Positive Arauco BBB-/Stable Baa3/Negative BBB/Stable CMPC BBB/Negative Baa3/Negative BBB+/Stable Klabin BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable Suzano BB/Negative Ba2/Stable BB-/Stable
(1) (2)
11
Fibria is seeking value creation for its shareholders with capital discipline
PULP
- Growth with discipline - Best portfolio of projects
INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION ?
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES
Portocel Land and forest
12
Fibria APRIL Arauco Georgia Pacific CMPC UPM-Kymmene Sodra Suzano Paper Excellence Weyerhaeuser Stora Enso Domtar Ilim IP Mercer Metsa Fibre Eldorado West Fraser ENCE Canfor 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Mechanical
5,300
Relative valuations
6000
13
Veracel II
Jacare Santos
Aracruzs Expansion
Port Terminal Pulp Unit
14
Portocel I
Portocel II
15
Pulp projects, net of closures, will add less than 10% of global capacity between 2013 and 2015, less than in other basic materials sectors
SOFTWOOD(1) 25.0 MT
HARDWOOD(1) 30.1 MT
Net: (0.3) mt
Net: 4.6 mt
Net: 4.3 mt
(1) Source: PPPC Special Research Note Feb 2013 does not include Sulphite and UKP (2) Projects included:Ilim Group (490kt) | Closures: Resolute Forest (75kt) ; Domtar (125kt) ; Rayonier (280kt); Birla (350kt) (3) Projects included: Eldorado (1.5 mt); Montes del Plata (1.3 mt); Maranho (1.5 mt); Guaba II (1.5 mt) | Closures: Jari (410kt); Sappi Cloquet (270kt); Double A (85kt); Sodra Tofte (180kt); Ilim Group (100kt); April Rizhao (130kt)
18
19
542
42 117 500 425 86 421 44 451 35 432 36 376 48 332 65 320 52 314 69 273
302
65 237
Delivery (US$/t)
Source: Hawkins Wright (Outlook for Market Pulp, March 2013) | Fibrias 2012 cash cost divided by FX considered in the report R$/US$1.9946
20
21
24.3
25 20
14.8 14.6 11.1 6.3 6.1
Growth Potential
15 10
5 0
1991 1996 2001 2006 E.Europe Asia FE 2009 2010 2011 2012 N.America Japan W.Europe China L.America Oceania Middle East Africa
N. America
L. America
Oceania
E. Europe
W. Europe
N&M East
Japan
China
22
Different from other commodities, China accounts for 26% of hardwood demand compared to 60%-75% in other basic materials sectors
8.000 26% 25% 6.000 21% 18% 4.000 14% 17% 2.000 12% 15% 16% 15% 19% 20% 26% 26% 25% 26%
Eucaplyptus ('000 t)
Hardwood ('000 t)
23
Europe
21% 51% 28%
North America
2% 4%
94%
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13
Asia
North America
32% 22%
Europe
Asia
Others
46%
Fibria is exposed to the least volatile consumer markets (tissue) which brings stability to sales volume.
Specialties
Tissue
Fibria has a low dependence on China (less than 20% of total sales volume).
24
Inventories
Hardwood Market Pulp Producers Inventories (days of supply)
65 55 45 41 days 35 1.000 25 15 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 500 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Feb13: 41 days Mar12: 33 days
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
0 05
Source: Utipulp
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
25
Inventories(1)
+339
1993 1488 1596 1827
Inventories (days)
58 1998
57
56
55
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Inventories Calculation =
(1) Source: PPPC Global World 20 March Report and (2) Fibrias estimates.
26
Investor Relations
E-mail: ir@fibria.com.br Phone: +55 11 2138-4565 Website: www.fibria.com.br/ir
THANK YOU
Back up
117,611
114,507
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
37,474
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Developed Markets Emerging Markets
Source: RISI
30
000 ton
1996
2006
2016
Growth 20072016
27%
Hardwood
14.3
22.4
29.9
Eucalyptus
5.4
11.1
21.4
106%
67%
Softwood
16.4
22.0
24.1
35%
7%
Market Pulp
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
30.8
44.4
54.0
Hardwood
Softwood
Source: PPPC
31
Gross capacity addition should not be counted as the only factor influencing pulp price volatility
1.000 900
Eldorado
2,0 1,8
Guaba II
800
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
APP Hainan Nueva Aldea Santa F Valdivia Kerinci PL3 Fray Bentos Mucuri Veracel
Trs Lagoas
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
FOEX May 21, 2013 - The quotes received for our hardwood benchmark in Europe were again in a range of 800-850 USD/ton () but with 850 also increasingly represented.
Source: Hawkins Wright
Rizhao
Maranho
1,6