Strategic Business & Financial Planning

16 - 18 June 2009
The Prince Hotel, Kuala Lumpur

“Not all organizations adapt

equally well to the environment
within which they grow.
Many, like the dinosaur of great size but little brain,
remain unchanged in a changing world”
Why you should attend?
Recent world events have challenged us to prepare to manage previously unthinkable situations that
may threaten an organisation’s future. This new challenge goes beyond the mere emergency response
plan or disaster management activities that we previously employed. It is no longer enough to draft a re-
sponse plan that anticipates naturally, accidentally, or intentionally caused disaster or emergency scenarios.
Today’s threats require the creation of an on-going, interactive process that serves to assure the
continuation of an organization’s core activities before, during, and most importantly, after a major crisis event.

The Malaysian economy is relatively young in comparison to those of developed nations. Hence it would be a
minor setback every time a business is damaged due to the lack of planning. Unplanned events can have dev-
astating impact on any business and if the situation continues to stretch longer this would certainly leads to
greater loss for the organisation. However with a proper business and financial analysis, each organization could
take a step to minimize the potential impact of a disaster and ideally prevent it happening in the first place.

As you progress through a rich learning experience that incorporates case studies, and group
discussions, you will discover how to link strategy to scorecards, systems, structure, and governance,
and in turn, create essential business process management and control systems for your organization.

8 Key Benefits Who should Attend

• Managing the business change in an age of uncertainty • Directors Risk Management
• Assigning the right resources and capabilities to your business • Directors Operations
plan • Strategic decision-makers
• Developing a tactical strategy to achieve superior performance • Finance Officer
• Managing for the future by managing for emergent possibilities • Business Process Improvement
• Spotting areas where financial performance can be improved • Key business unit managers
immediately • Strategic Planning
• Obtaining a crystal clear picture of where your department, • Business Operations
division or organization stands financially • Business Development
• Gaining support for your ideas and projects by presenting them
in bottom-line terms

Tools and methodologies that participants will receive

• 8 step scenario planning process
• 20 Forecasts for 2010 and beyond
• The Building Blocks of Scenario Planning
• Checklist for a successful Scenario Planning Process
• Designing postcards from the future for envisioning scenarios
• Early Warning System - Framework for Environmental Scanning
• Questionnaire for pre-workshop planning
• Reference Library on Scenario Planning
• System of three levels of identifying the key environmental uncertainties
• Voting mechanism for prioritising the key drivers of change.

an evolution mind power masterclass

 Scenario Planning
The tools for Mitigating Risk in an Age of Uncertainty
16 June -17 June 2009
The Prince Hotel, Kuala Lumpur

Strategic tools for mitigating risk: envisioning new possibilities for managing
change, uncertainty and opportunity
More than ever, business initiatives today have to be designed and delivered in an
environment of change, uncertainty and opportunity. What are needed are fresh approaches to
stimulate “out of the box” thinking, exploit valuable concepts, and overcome outdated thinking.
In essence, scenario planning is the art of thinking the unthinkable. “What could bite us?” “Are we
missing the bigger opportunity?” A good scenario describes what it’s like to deal with driving forces, and
call upon the organisation to dig deeper, work with scarce resources, make difficult decisions, and take
action despite risks. The prospect is for better strategic decisions, more innovation, and industry leadership.
This one-day Scenario Planning Programme opens up a range of new possibilities for you and your organisation.

How you can benefit

For executives and managers, scenario thinking is a valuable aid to build support for new strategic initiatives.
Scenarios help communicate with peers and with top management and the Board as to how the risks and
uncertainties play out, and can be dealt with.
By joining in this Workshop, you can benefit in the following ways:
• Master scenario planning to develop strategies that create new opportunities – and mitigate the risks
• Learn how organisations in a wide range of industries make better business and investment decisions
in times of uncertainty
• Strengthen your organisational risk management process and change capacity
• Enhance your own team’s ability to respond to disruptive change, and develop real options for tomorow’s
growth.

How your organisation can benefit

Within the management team, scenarios foster openness to new ideas and different perspectives,
and can help re-shape core planning assumptions before they become outdated or just plain wrong.
Key success factors are uncovered, leading to an enhanced ability to manage strategic change.
This programme is a cost-effective way of enabling you to assess the potential
benefits of scenario planning. For organizations that are planning to initiate a full scenario
planning project, the programme can prepare executives and managers to lead the project and
allow them to appoint team members, external experts and facilitators on an informed basis.
For organizations that have already established scenarios teams, the programme is a means
of bringing new members of the team up to speed within a very short period of time.

Who should attend?

• C-Level executives, general managers, senior analysts and strategists working in government
planning agencies, energy and power, oil and gas, science and technology, manufacturing, infocomms,
mining, new product development and infrastructure projects;
• Business unit and functional managers looking to plan new initiatives;
• Corporate finance professionals and senior analysts responsible for business analysis and planning.

an evolution mind power masterclass

 Scenario Planning
The tools for Mitigating Risk in an Age of Uncertainty
16 June -17 June 2009
The Prince Hotel, Kuala Lumpur

Day 1
Session 1
Understanding Scenario Planning and its benefits
• Overview of Scenario Planning:What is it? Why is it used?
• How Scenario Planning makes a difference
• Where Scenario Planning used is used – strategic planning, enterprise risk management, business continuity planning, new
product and service development, organisation development, major projects, capital investments, M&A
• Practical insights from the history of Scenario Planning
• General Electric Case Study on applying scenario planning in business strategy
Session 2
Mastering the logic of Scenario Planning - how the process works in practice
• How do we identify the key issues for the future, and what effect will they have on your organisation?
• Comparing the differences between forecasting and scenario planning
• Why do organizations struggle to anticipate and respond to disruptive change?
• Using scenarios to overcome the blockers to effective decision making
• The major phases of a scenario planning initiative
• Royal Dutch Shell Case Study on applying the concepts
• Discussion on Case Study
Session 3
The foundation building blocks of scenarios
• Deciding on the major focal issue which the Scenarios must address
• Identifying the key Frames of Reference - how we look at the world
• What are the most useful Frames of Reference for scenario thinking?
• Uncovering the implicit assumptions that underpin, business objectives, strategies and plans
• Exploring conflicts and dilemmas which reveal how the future might play out in a different direction; “overload explanations”
of social and business change; disruptive technological and business innovations
• Case Study on IBM and the PC market
• Breakout session on scenario building blocks
• Discussion from breakout session
Session 4
Identifying the key drivers of change to populate the scenarios
• Distinguishing between the pre-determined elements and the critical uncertainties
• Identifying expected trends which are unlikely to vary significantly in any of the scenarios
• Identifying which issues are most uncertain, and are likely to define the future scenario possibilities
• Checklists of drivers: social, technological, economic and financial, market, environmental, regulatory, political, competitive,
and organisational
• Using voting mechanisms to identify the most important and the most uncertain drivers of change
Session 5
Building the scenarios – crafting compelling scenarios
• Generating the scenario “logics” using deductive, inductive, normative and incremental methods
• Identifying the “wild card” scenarios
• Survey of story templates to design scenarios
• Composing your Scenario narratives; distinguishing the realistic from the impossible
• Describing the scenario dynamics
• Case Studies in scenario narratives
Session 6
Break-out session - Postcards from the Future - You receive a postcard dated from a distant time in the future
• Explain what this is all about: Why did this happen? What were the conditions that led to this outcome?
• How are the stakeholders in your industry affected?
• What does this mean for your organisation’s customers and markets?
• Are there other implications for your organisation?
Session 7
Plenary session – the keys to crafting scenarios that are plausible yet surprising
• Summary of the key factors for conducting reconnaissance into the future - scenario thinking and scenario production
• Building an anticipatory mindset and culture
• Discussion and wrap-up

an evolution mind power masterclass

 Scenario Planning
The tools for Mitigating Risk in an Age of Uncertainty
16 June -17 June 2009
The Prince Hotel, Kuala Lumpur

Day 2
Session 1
Translating scenarios into strategic advantage - using the scenarios to develop robust business and organiza-
tional strategies
• Strategy as active waiting
• Exploring the implications of the scenarios
• Checklist of key questions to analyse scenarios
• Identifying early-warning indicators for future tracking
Session 2
From scenarios to strategy - designing the portfolio of initiatives to deal with the range of scenarios
• What is the potential scope of initiatives to consider?
• The role of financial capital versus organisational capital in strategic initiatives
• Designing initiatives to increase speed and flexibility, launch new products and processes, enter new markets, as well as
corporate-wide efforts to improve governance, risk management, innovation and business development
• Value creation in unpredictable markets - “big bets” versus “real options” versus “no regrets” moves
• Managing the opportunity portfolio: timing initiatives over different time frames (short term, medium term and long term)
Session 3
Case Study: Using scenarios to anticipate the future pandemic risk environment and designing a response strat-
egy to tackle the full menu of uncertainties
• Identifying the driving forces shaping the disruption, and uncovering the risks and uncertainties impacting the success in
dealing with a pandemic
• Developing and exploring pandemic scenarios
• Formulating the portfolio of initiatives for effective pandemic emergency response using these scenarios
• Breakout session on using scenarios
• Discussion from breakout session
Session 4
Advanced material on Scenario Planning
• What issues are emerging in areas such as economics and finance, science and philosophy, the environment, politics, and
society that will change the shape of our world?
• What can we do to ensure we are prepared to meet these challenges?
• Developing organisational mechanisms to deal with disruptive change
• Shaping the wider policy agenda
• Case Studies: companies that stumble in the face of disruptive change versus companies that succeed – General Motors,
Kodak, and Microsoft
Session 5
Designing a successful Scenario Planning Project
• Building the commitment and support of management by involving them in the scenario process
• Building blocks, activities and schedule – preparation, workshops, scenario production and application, outcomes
• Preparing the groundwork including interviews with key participants both internal and external to the organization, and
information gathering
• Drafting the Pre-Workshop Questionnaire for Planning Scenarios – key questions to ask stakeholders
• Achieving the right balance between process and content
• Key deliverables from each phase of the Scenario Project
Session 6
Breakout session - Planning your own Scenario Planning Project for your organisation
• Identifying the focal issue and deliverables for the project
• Involving management at key steps in the process
• Adapting the scenario approach to suit your organisation’s culture and mind-set; selecting the right participants
• Planning the logistics – invitations, venue, timing
• Action Plan moving forward
• Teams report back
Session 7
Plenary session and Wrap-up – key factors for successful Scenario Planning
• Shifting mindsets from predict, plan, and control to observe, anticipate and respond
• Summary of insights on building and using scenarios
• Keys to securing top management support and buy-in
• Building your leadership capacity in an unpredictable world.

an evolution mind power masterclass

 Scenario Planning
The tools for Mitigating Risk in an Age of Uncertainty
16 June -17 June 2009
The Prince Hotel, Kuala Lumpur

Jay Horton
MEc (Australian National University),
B.E. (Hons) (James Cook University),
Fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors
Jay is the Founder and Managing Director of Strategis Partners, a Sydney-based consultancy
advising corporations and Governments on strategic and organisational futures. For over 20
years, jay has been a strategic adviser to multinational firms in the region including BHP-
Billiton, BMA Coal, Coca Cola Amatil Indonesia, Elgas, Hydro Tasmania, Medco Energi, MMC
Corporation Berhad, MTR Corporation of Hong Kong, Rio Tinto and Singapore International
Airlines.After finishing a Bachelor of Systems Engineering, he joined Australian Volunteers
Abroad and worked in Malaysia for two years. From there he joined the Australian Public
Service in Canberra in the Department of Resources and Energy. Following completion of a Master of Economics from
Australian National University, he commenced his career in management consulting with McKinsey & Company. Since
then he has advised client organizations in Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia and
Singapore in Government Agencies and a wide range of industries including Consumer and Industrial Products, Energy
& Mining, Financial Services, Transport & Logistics).In 1999 he entered the Partnership of PricewaterhouseCoopers
for five years, after PwC acquired the management consultancy which he founded in 1990. He led the establishment
of PwC’s Applied Decision Analysis Practice in the Asia Pacific Region. Jay now works with clients to help leaders and
their organizations foster innovation, and make better decisions in the face of risk and opportunity. Across Asia and
in Australia, Jay has facilitated scenario planning initiatives to:
• Develop organizational resilience to deal with the next Pandemic
• Prepare young executives for future leadership roles in global corporations
• Explore the future of info-comms technology in corporations and Government
• Map future customer and market scenarios for Hong Kong in 2020, and to
• Develop scenarios on the future of industries including automotive, building products, energy, mining and wealth
management.

Previous testimonials
“The course really energized me and I came away with new ideas and positive approaches to apply in my work.”
– Mongkhol Pojpongsan, Strategic Planning Department, Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding PCL, Thailand.
“This is an excellent program. I have recommended this Program to the Human Resources Department to send
other senior officers.”
– Usanee Wiwatchiwong, Corporate Strategic Planning, Banpu Public Company Limited, Thailand
“Overall quality of the programme is excellent. I would recommend this to my colleagues and peers.”
– Matthias Getz, 3M, Singapore
“A fine presentation of strategic scenario concepts.”
– Pat Cullen, Unisys, Wellington New Zealand
“A very good, interactive workshop program.”
– Elain Seah, a-connect, Hong Kong
“By far the most informative course on scenario planning that I’ve attended in the last few years. Great elucida-
tion of differences between scenario planning and conventional planning approaches.”
- Marcel Pordes, Retail Concepts Asia, Hong Kong
"Very informative, technical and conducted professionally"
- Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd

an evolution mind power masterclass

 Scenario Planning
The tools for Mitigating Risk in an Age of Uncertainty
16 June -17 June 2009
The Prince Hotel, Kuala Lumpur

List of organisations which have participated in Jay Horton’s scenario planning

workshops
Asia Pacific Breweries (S) Pte Ltd
AXA Asia-Pacific, Melbourne
Banpu Public Co Ltd, Thailand
Bayer Materials Science, Hong Kong
BHP Billiton, Singapore
CLP Power Ltd, Hong Kong
Energy Market Authority, Singapore
Government of Brunei
Great Eastern Life Assurance Co Ltd
JTC Corporation, Singapore
Keppel Land International Limited, Singapore
Maxis Mobile Sdn Bhd, Malaysia
Ministry Of Manpower, Singapore
MMC Corporation, Malaysia
Mount Alvernia Hospital, Singapore
MTR Corporation, Hong Kong
Petronas Dagangan Berhad, Malaysia
Pfizer Global Pharmaceuticals, Thailand
Prime Minister's Office, Singapore
Roche Pharmaceuticals, Hong Kong
Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand
SingTel Ltd, Singapore
ST Engineering, Singapore
Telstra Corporation, Sydney
UBS Asia, Hong Kong
Volkswagen Group, Singapore.

Quotes about the future

“If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable.”
- Seneca, Roman philosopher, 3 BC-65 AD
“The future is already here - it's just unevenly distributed.”
- William Gibson, author and futurist
“Scenarios deal with two worlds: the world of facts and the worlds of perceptions. Their purpose is to
gather and transform information of potential strategic significance into fresh perceptions within, then
lead to strategic insights that were previously beyond the mind's reach”
- Pierre Wack, Head of strategic planning at the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies in the 1960s
and 1970s.
“Any useful statement about the future should at first seem ridiculous.”
- Jim Dator, American futurist

an evolution mind power masterclass

 Scenario Planning
The tools for Mitigating Risk in an Age of Uncertainty
16 June -17 June 2009
The Prince Hotel, Kuala Lumpur

18th June
CONFERENCE TOPICS
8.30 am Registration
8.45 am Opening

Never again be intimidated by reports full of numbers


• Scan any financial statement and zero in on the most valuable information
• Use business analysis techniques to determine the financial feasibility or success of any business
situation
• Spot indicators of financial distress – and understand your options for overcoming it
• Use break-even analysis and other powerful analysis tools to make 
better decisions
TBA
10.00 – 10.15 am Coffee Break
10.15 – 11.15 am

Business Continuity Management – Key Risk Mitigation Strategy and Industry

Best Practices
• Further strengthening the relations between business continuity and operational risk functions
• Risk assessment and identification of organizational structures, opportunities for mutual initiatives and
other topics.
• The potential regional threats and impact to businesses
• Identifying risk mitigation strategies and the implementation issues
• Minimum standards and industry best practices

Gunawan Husin
Head of Business Continuity Management (Global Banking & Markets, Southeast Asia)
The Royal Bank of Scotland
11.15 – 12.15 am

Business Analysis and Appraisal of Strategic Direction

• Examine components involved through comprehensive business evaluation
• Distinguishing the key driver’s in an organization – both external & internal
• Understand the effects on the business cycles
• Evaluating the value gaps and financial analysis

Leong Sze Hian

President
The Society of Financial Service Professionals

an evolution mind power masterclass

 Scenario Planning
The tools for Mitigating Risk in an Age of Uncertainty
16 June -17 June 2009
The Prince Hotel, Kuala Lumpur

12.15 – 1.15pm

Pandemic Planning Strategic Approach for Business Operations

• Understand the potentially wide spread and significant impacts to business strategies
• The threat against the supply chain sector and the availability of commodities
• The potential impacts of a direct pandemic event on the organization, customers, and supply chain.
TBA

1.15 – 2.15 pm Lunch Break

Being Global, what it takes

• Successfully realigning of the company’s portfolio
• Ensuring robust financial heal
• Weathering turbulent economic times
• Innovation and global alliances

Anne Abraham*
Country Manager
Cisco Malaysia

2.15 – 3.15

Gearing your organization is as important as what you change

• The importance of appropriate engagement in these uncertain times
• The imperative to act and act quickly
• The need to resist being rushed
• The significance of data rather than hunches

Tengku Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz

Group Director
KN Kenanga Holdings Bhd

3.15 – 3.30 Coffee Break

4.15 – 5.15

Strategic business analysis – a managerial perspective

• Using the current business environment for future business indications
• Gearing the strategic groups towards the planned directions
• Benchmarking the past, maintaining the present and moving towards the future

Ruben Gnagalingam*
Executive Director of Westport Bhd

an evolution mind power masterclass