TRIMESTRE

2010 TRIM I
TRIM 2

DEMANDA
PM
371

PMC

514
421.75

TRIM 3

490

413.875

1.18393235

402.375

0.77539609

400

0.77

413.5

1.17291415

429.75

1.16346713

436.25

0.93982808

433.375

0.78453995

430.125

1.1740773

406
TRIM 4

312

2011 TRIM I

308

398.75
401.25
TRIM 2

485
425.75

TRIM 3

500
433.75

TRIM 4

410

2012 TRIM I

340

438.75
428
TRIM 2

505
432.25

TRIM 3

457

TRIM 4

427
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

PROM.
COMPENSACION

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

TRIM 2

0.77
0.78453995
0.77726997
0.7807683

1687
1703
1729
1748
1769
1790
1811
1832
1853
1874
1895

TRIM 3
TRIM 4
1.18393235 0.77539609
1.17291415 1.16346713 0.93982808
1.1740773
1.17349573 1.17369974 0.85761208
1.17877738 1.17898231 0.86147201

DEMANDA

TRIM I
2010
2011
2012

3.98207752
4

1735
1730
1725
1720
1715
1710
1705
1700
1695
1690
1685
1680

y = 21x + 1664.3
R = 0.9815

0.5

1.5

2
AO

COMPENSACION
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

1.00450079

TRIM I
TRIM 2
TRIM 3
TRIM 4
0.77726997 1.17349573 1.17369974 0.85761208
339.666979 512.817632 512.906786
374.77648
343.747646 518.978485
519.06871 379.278944
347.828313 525.139337 525.230633 383.781407
351.908981
531.30019 531.392557 388.283871
355.989648 537.461042 537.554481 392.786334
360.070315 543.621895 543.716404 397.288797
364.150983 549.782747 549.878328 401.791261
368.23165
555.9436 556.040252 406.293724

2.5

21x + 1664.3

3.5

AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

INGRESO PERCAPITE CONSUMO

100
200
210
168
290
456
405
400
515
506
585
442
714
622
805.1428571 664.694286
576.864675
905.75
731.095
601.1905039
1006.357143 797.495714
622.9514693
1106.964286 863.896429
642.63722
1207.571429 930.297143
660.6093267
1308.178571 996.697857
677.1423899
1408.785714 1063.09857
692.4498739
1509.392857 1129.49929
706.7010078
LINEAL
LOGARITMICO

700

y = 0.6601x + 133.32
R = 0.7776

600
CONSUMO

500

y = 206.62ln(x)
R = 0.7515

400
300
200
100
0
0

100

200

300

400

500

INGRESO PERCAPITE

600

700

01x + 133.32

y = 206.62ln(x) - 805.51
R = 0.7515

700

800

NUMERO

AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

CONSUMO INGRESO
POBLACION
566
790
296
592
830
304
630
864
312
672
928
320
714
1010
330
738
1060
345

CONSUMO
566
592
630
672
714
738
777.029265
812.751913
848.47456
884.197207
919.919854
955.642502
991.365149
1027.0878

INGRESO
790
830
864
928
1010
1060
1109.06667
1164.89524
1220.72381
1276.55238
1332.38095
1388.20952
1444.0381
1499.86667

POBLACION
296
304
312
320
330
345
350.933333
360.390476
369.847619
379.304762
388.761905
398.219048
407.67619
417.133333

Intercepcin
COEF. INGRESO
COEF. POBLACION

31.9166824
0.603023965
0.217473797
C=

a + b(I) + c(P)

a
b
c

Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.992209mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.9844787 R^2
R^2 ajustado 0.97413116
Error tpico
10.9369782
Observaciones
6
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
2 22761.1475 11380.5738 95.1413832 0.00193371
Residuos
3
358.85248 119.617493
Total
5
23120
Coeficientes
Intercepcin 31.9166824
Variable X 1
0.60302396
Variable X 2
0.2174738

Error tpico Estadstico t

329.954985 0.09673041
0.33596847
1.7948826
1.98601424 0.10950264

Anlisis de los residuales

ObservacinPronstico para Y Residuos
1 572.677858 -6.67785846
2 598.538607 -6.53860743
3 620.781213
9.2187874
4 661.114537 10.8854633
5
712.73724
1.2627602
6 746.150545 -8.15054499

Probabilidad
0.92904041
0.17055201
0.91971777

Inferior 95%
-1018.14734
-0.46617766
-6.10290987

Superior 95%
1081.98071
1.67222559
6.53785746

Variable X 1 Curva de regresin ajustada

800
600
400
200
0

Y
Pronstico para Y
790

830

864

928

Variable X 1

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

-1018.14734 1081.98071
-0.46617766 1.67222559
-6.10290987 6.53785746

1010

1060

n ajustada

Pronstico para Y

AO
2010 ENERO

RESIDUOS
2840

FEBRERO

2995

MARZO

3366

ABRIL

3340

MAYO

3526

JUNIO

3274

JULIO

3565

AGOSTO

3961

SEPTIEMBRE

3386

OCTUBRE

3382

NOVIEMBRE

3220

DICIEMBRE

4390

PM

PMC

AO
2010

3437.08333
3429.125

1.03962381

3408.45833

1.16210897

3413

0.99208907

3441.33333

0.98275862

3466.29167

0.92894664

3480.41667

1.26134323

3421.16667
3395.75
3430.25
3452.41667
3480.16667
3480.66667
2011 ENERO

2649

2011
3475.25

0.76224732

3470.625

0.77507654

3470.25

1.0892587

3468.58333

1.03961752

3475.16667

1.11045034

3481.54167

0.94211137

3469.83333
FEBRERO

2690
3471.41667

MARZO

3780
3469.08333

ABRIL

3606
3468.08333

MAYO

3859
3482.25

JUNIO

3280
3480.83333

JULIO

3435

2012
3508.95833

0.97892299

3552.83333

1.12023268

3570.66667

0.94044063

3563.54167

0.9456884

3536.04167

0.95869911

3524.83333

1.24062603

3537.08333
AGOSTO

3980
3568.58333

SEPTIEMBRE

3358
3572.75

OCTUBRE

3370
3554.33333

NOVIEMBRE

3390
3517.75

DICIEMBRE

4373

3531.91667
2012 ENERO

3324

3522.04167

0.94377078

3503.83333

0.87561242

3495.375

1.09573365

3510.66667

0.96420433

3530.45833

0.96871275

3539.125

0.97481722

3512.16667
FEBRERO

3068
3495.5

MARZO

3830
3495.25

ABRIL

3385
3526.08333

MAYO

3420
3534.83333

JUNIO

3450
3543.41667

JULIO

3198

AGOSTO

3780

SEPTIEMBRE

3355

OCTUBRE

3740

NOVIEMBRE

3495

DICIEMBRE

4476

ENERO
2010
2011
2012
PROM
COMPENSACION

AO
TM
MES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

FEBRERO

MARZO

ABRIL

MAYO

JUNIO

0.76224732
0.94377078
0.85300905
0.84971311

0.77507654
0.87561242
0.82534448
0.82215544

1.0892587
1.09573365
1.09249617
1.08827489

1.03961752
0.96420433
1.00191092
0.99803965

1.11045034
0.96871275
1.03958154
1.03556471

0.94211137
0.97481722
0.9584643
0.95476089

2000
34430

2001
35060

2002
35685

2003
36314

2004
36952

2005
37600

TM
2840
2995
3366
3340
3526
3274
3565
3961
3386
3382
3220
4390
2649
2690
3780
3606
3859
3280
3435
3980
3358
3370
3390
4373
3324
3068
3830
3385
3420
3450
3198
3780
3355
3740
3495
4476

JULIO
AGOSTO
SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE
NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE
1.03962381 1.16210897 0.99208907 0.98275862 0.92894664 1.26134323
0.97892299 1.12023268 0.94044063
0.9456884 0.95869911 1.24062603
1.0092734
1.00537368

1.14117082
1.13676146

0.96626485
0.96253131

0.96422351
0.96049785

0.94382288
0.94017605

1.25098463
1.24615096

12.0465466
12

2006
38268

2007
38938

2008
39623

2009
40320

2010
3437.08333

2011
3480.83333
ENERO
FEBRERO
MARZO
ABRIL
MAYO
JUNIO
JULIO
AGOSTO
SEPTIEMBRE
OCTUBRE
NOVIEMBRE
DICIEMBRE

2012
3543.41667
0.84971311
0.82215544
1.09249617
1.00191092
1.03958154
0.9584643
1.0092734
1.14117082
0.96626485
0.96422351
0.94382288
1.25098463

1.00387888

2013
40909.8667
2896.80418
2802.85578
3724.4894
3415.67019
3544.0952
3267.55388
3440.77003
3890.42885
3294.14718
3287.18793
3217.639
4264.80121

2014
41562.7515
2943.03458
2847.58685
3783.92892
3470.18123
3600.65578
3319.70112
3495.68164
3952.51661
3346.71882
3339.64851
3268.98964
4332.86362

2015
42215.6364
2989.26498
2892.31792
3843.36843
3524.69227
3657.21637
3371.84835
3550.59325
4014.60438
3399.29046
3392.10908
3320.34028
4400.92603

2016
42868.5212
3035.49539
2937.04898
3902.80795
3579.20331
3713.77696
3423.99559
3605.50486
4076.69214
3451.8621
3444.56966
3371.69091
4468.98844

2017
43521.4061
3081.72579
2981.78005
3962.24747
3633.71435
3770.33754
3476.14282
3660.41647
4138.7799
3504.43374
3497.03024
3423.04155
4537.05085

2018
44174.2909
3127.95619
3026.51112
4021.68698
3688.22539
3826.89813
3528.29006
3715.32807
4200.86766
3557.00538
3549.49081
3474.39219
4605.11326

RESIDUOS SOLIDOS

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

2019
44827.1758
3174.18659
3071.24219
4081.1265
3742.73643
3883.45872
3580.43729
3770.23968
4262.95542
3609.57702
3601.95139
3525.74283
4673.17566

y = 11.567x + 3273.1
R = 0.0847

10

15

20
AO

25

30

35

2020
45480.0606
3220.41699
3115.97326
4140.56602
3797.24746
3940.0193
3632.58453
3825.15129
4325.04319
3662.14866
3654.41196
3577.09347
4741.23807

= 11.567x + 3273.1
R = 0.0847

40

2021
46132.9455
3266.64739
3160.70433
4200.00553
3851.7585
3996.57989
3684.73176
3880.0629
4387.13095
3714.7203
3706.87254
3628.4441
4809.30048

2022
46785.8303
3312.87779
3205.4354
4259.44505
3906.26954
4053.14048
3736.879
3934.97451
4449.21871
3767.29194
3759.33312
3679.79474
4877.36289

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

AO
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

PRODUCCION INGRESO NETO

1979.49
95.3
1803.79
99.7
1764
98.2
1793.97
104.8
1920.33
96.1
2216.95
99.8
2341.9
113.1
2413.1
113.9
2526.01
126.9
2720.22
129.5
2868.01
141.04
3045.82
148
3309.98
154
3752.17
172.1
4880.08
200.1
4048.263598 178.3927619
4226.498048 184.9206905
4404.732497
191.448619
4582.966947 197.9765476
4761.201397 204.5044762
4939.435847 211.0324048
5117.670296 217.5603333
5295.904746 224.0882619
5474.139196 230.6161905
5652.373646
237.144119

DEFLACION
100
107.7
103.81
104.5
93.48
95.23
102.82
104.6
108.15
108.1
113.32
115.7
117.5
123.18
132.96
123.806381
125.690095
127.57381
129.457524
131.341238
133.224952
135.108667
136.992381
138.876095
140.75981

TASA DE INTERES
3.03
3.4
3.64
3.62
3.7
3.74
3.99
4.18
4.13
4.05
4.06
4.1
4.49
4.86
4.8
4.819142857
4.923285714
5.027428571
5.131571429
5.235714286
5.339857143
5.444
5.548142857
5.652285714
5.756428571

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
P=
Donde:

Coeficientes
1838.9429
39.527247
-31.374411
-198.72865

a
b
c
d

a+b(IN)+c(D)+d(TI)
IN= ingreso neto
D= deflacion
TI= taza de interes

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.98641207
mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.97300878R^2
R^2 ajustado
0.96564753
Error tpico
159.678343
Observaciones
15
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
3 10110646.3 3370215.43 132.179964 6.5656E-09
Residuos
11 280468.905 25497.1732
Total
14 10391115.2

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

Coeficientes
1838.94286
39.527247
-31.374411
-198.728647

Error tpico Estadstico t

1290.15471 1.42536615
6.57054933 6.01582075
14.6906356 -2.13567417
207.949914 -0.95565631

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin Pronstico para Y Residuos
1 1866.30059 113.189406
2 1725.10792 78.6820836
3 1740.16863 23.8313704
4 1983.37469 -189.404689
5 1969.33536 -49.005358
6 2052.73181 164.218193
7 2290.63025 51.2697495
8 2228.64715 184.452846
9 2641.05864 -115.048638
10 2761.29649 -41.0764923
11 3051.67921 -183.669211
12 3244.16861 -198.348606
13 3347.35398 -37.3739757
14 3811.06089 -58.8908925
15 4622.90579 257.174212

Probabilidad
0.18180419
8.7258E-05
0.05602478
0.35977694

Inferior 95%
-1000.66852
25.0655654
-63.708282
-656.423322

Superior 95%
4678.55423
53.9889286
0.95945995
258.966029

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Percentil
3.33333333
10
16.6666667
23.3333333
30
36.6666667
43.3333333
50
56.6666667
63.3333333
70
76.6666667
83.3333333
90
96.6666667

Y
1764
1793.97
1803.79
1920.33
1979.49
2216.95
2341.9
2413.1
2526.01
2720.22
2868.01
3045.82
3309.98
3752.17
4880.08

Grfico de probabilidad normal

6000

4000
2000
0
0

20

40

60
Muestra percentil

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

-1000.66852 4678.55423
25.0655654 53.9889286
-63.708282 0.95945995
-656.423322 258.966029

80

100

120

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

AO
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

JAPON
16
20
25
15
30
35
40
45
46.89285714
51.03571429
55.17857143
59.32142857
63.46428571
67.60714286
71.75
75.89285714
80.03571429
84.17857143

RUSIA
12
12
15
6
20
25
30
35
35.17857143
38.69047619
42.20238095
45.71428571
49.22619048
52.73809524
56.25
59.76190476
63.27380952
66.78571429

EEUU
20
25
20
30
15
10
25
30
23.21428571
23.51190476
23.80952381
24.10714286
24.4047619
24.70238095
25
25.29761905
25.5952381
25.89285714

VOLUMEN DE EXPORTACION
48
57
60
51
65
70
95
110
105.2857143
113.2380952
121.1904762
129.1428571
137.0952381
145.047619
153
160.952381
168.9047619
176.8571429