summary

COMMERCIAL FLEET FORECAST

GLOBAL: 2012-2031

Research and analysis from Flightglobal Insight and Achieving the Difference

CoMMERCIAL FLEET FORECAST 2012-H1

background
In the first half of 2011, Flightglobal published its first forecast report. Flightglobal continues to expand its growing store of information and is now arguably among the worlds most complete set of aviation statistics anywhere. In partnership with Clive Lewis of the Achieving the Difference marketing practive, further refinements have been made to the forecasting model and the latest installment (2012-H1) now includes an improved freighter forecast. Clive brings with him decades of forecasting experience within the commercial aerospace sector. Working together with the Flightglobal Insight research team, he has painstakingly combined Flightglobals data resource with his expertise in developing computer-based forecasting tools. The resulting forecasting model spent a year in the making. Much time was invested in ensuring that the methodology was robust, including some sterling work by the UKs Bristol Business School in proving the model against decades worth of data. At the heart of the forecast lies the Pachinko Probability Tree. Like the ball-bearings of the Japanese arcade game after which it is named, individual aircraft drop through this tree-like predictive model based on over 800,000 historic observations, assigning probabilities to which way they will fall in terms of service, storage or migration between world regions. Total fleet size is predicted by demand-side analysis based on the relationship between fleet capacity and economic growth, the latter based on predictions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Updated twice a year, the report is a set of 20year predictions which are robustly tested and truly independent.

The Pachinko Probability Tree has been developed to perform long-term predictions

in this report
l Passenger and freighter demand including: Fleet  size Deliveries  Order  backlog Retirements  l Analysis divided in six world regions plus a separate section on China l Covers all modern commercial airliners over 20-seats l Detailed forecasts for aircraft categories down to model series

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Headlines
Active fleet development
active fleet regional split in 2031
7% 7% 22% Africa Asia-Pacific (ex China) 24% China Europe Middle East 6% 19% 15% North America South America Total fleet: 39,155

of the worlds commercial fleet (all uses) will be based in Asia-Pacific by 2031. China alone will be operating more than 5,900 aircraft.
Growth demand is coming from Asia-Pacific, China, the Middle East and Africa.The new territories of growth demand appear to be growing-up differently to the way the mature markets did, skipping the high levels of growth in the smaller turboprop and regional jet fleets. This is not good news for manufacturers in these segments without a growth region to deliver to. Signs of change in these areas will be carefully observed.

37%

Deliveries
narrowbody deliveries by manufacturer
1,000
Number of deliveries

800 600 400 200 0 2012

of global narrowbody deliveries in 2030 will Bombardier CSeries be manufactured by companies competing with the Airbus and Boeing duopoly. Boeing 737
The narrowbody market group forms the backbone of capacity supply across the world and acts as a barometer of the industry. Fleet growth is expected to be strongest in AsiaPacific and China. Although small, the fleets of Africa and the Middle East are expected to show a high growth rate.
Airbus A320 Family

15%
Irkut MS-21 Comac C919

2017

2022 Year ending

2027

Irkut MS-21 Comac C919 Bombardier CSeries

Boeing 737 Airbus A320 Family

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CoMMERCIAL FLEET FORECAST 2012-H1

Retirements
retirements by market group
400
Number of aircraft

300

200

of the worlds commercial fleet Regional Jet retirements to 2031 will be narrowbody Turboprop aircraft.
It is no surprise that almost half of the retirements predicted in the 121-200 seats category are of the prolific 737. Of these, the 737 Classic is expected to see the most retirements. It is also not surprising that almost half of all retirements are expected to be from the mature market of North America.

58%
Widebody Jet Narrowbody Jet

100

0 2012 2017 2022 Year ending

Widebody Jet Narrowbody Jet Regional Jet Turboprop

2027

Survivors
Survivors by market group
15,000
Total number of aircraft

12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 2012

of commercial aircraft operating in 2012 will still be in service in 2031.

A survivor is an aircraft that was in active service Widebody Jet in 2012, remaining in active service later in the Turboprop forecast period. It is possible for an aircraft that Regional Jet has been parked or used for some other purpose Narrowbody to re-enter theJet active fleet at a later point. A high percentage of the original regional jet and turboprop fleet is expected to survive to the end of the forecast period while many narrowbody jets are expected to re-enter service.

75%

2017

2022

2027

Year ending
Widebody Jet Turboprop Regional Jet Narrowbody Jet

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Focus on China
china: active passenger fleet
7,000 6,000 40,000

Number of aircraft

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1992

missing
2002 2012 2022

35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

GDP on PPP basis (current intl $)

45,000

of the commercial aircraft in China will be 451+ seats 351-450 seats category by the end in the 121-200 seat 251-350 seats of the forecast period.
201-250 seats 121-200 seats 51-90of seats the fleet in the 121-200 seat The growth 20-50 seats category has been the strongest of any in the region, and is closely correlated with the growth of Chinas GDP. This relationship is reduced slightly going forward, because the order book does not support the continuation of such correlated growth. There has been some slow growth in the average seats per aircraft. This is a global trend and is predicted to continue over the forecast period. 91-120 seats

61%

Year ending
451+ seats 351-450 seats 251-350 seats 201-250 seats 121-200 seats 91-120 seats 51-90 seats 20-50 seats

GDP

freighter market
World freighter capacity
300,000

Capacity (tonnes)

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1992

Mediumcapacity Widebody 40-72.5 of freighter bytons 2031 is Medium Body 33-60 tons projected toStandard be large widebodies. Small Standard Body 12.5-33 tons tons Since Utility the0-12.5 mid-1990s, an increasing proportion of capacity has been delivered by large aircraft. In 1980, the Large Widebody share of capacity was 30%. This had increased to 36% by 1990, 50% in 2000 and 60% in 2010, and is predicted to increase further, to 65%, by 2031.

65%

Large Widebody 72.5-150 tons

2002

2012

2022

Year ending
Large Widebody 72.5-150 tonnes Medium Widebody 40-72.5 tonnes Medium Standard Body 33-60 tonnes Small Standard Body 12.5-33 tonnes Utility 0-12.5 tonnes

More than half of the aircraft in this Large Widebody freighter fleet are Boeing 747s. By 2031, this figure is expected to fall to less than 40%.

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CoMMERCIAL FLEET FORECAST 2012-H1

what do you get?

The Commercial Fleet Forecast report can be purchased as an annual package which includes two full printed reports, each with 350+ pages. It features written analysis with detailed infographics. Each report is supplied with a comprehensive, updated set of data used in the analysis in Excel format.

Contents
global Summary regional analysis Africa | Asia-Pacific | China | Europe | Middle East | North America | South America market group analysis Turboprops | Regional jets | Narrowbody jets | Widebody jets manufacturers and programmes Airbus | ATR | Boeing | Bombardier | Comac | Embraer | Mitsubishi | United Aircraft Corporation Retirement forecast Retirements | Conversions | Survivors methodology ASSUMPTIONS GLOSSARY Appendices

Independent analysis... lfrom trusted brands lbased on world leading data lwith a robust methodology ...informing your business  l through detailed analysis lwith expert commentary lplus full data tables in Excel 

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about the author

Clive Lewis of Achieving the Difference has more than a quarter of a century of aerospace industry experience. While a market forecaster at Smiths Industries (now GE Aviation), he studied for a Masters degree in Marketing at the University of the West of England. His dissertation on an econometric model for forecasting airliner retirements earned him a distinction. Clive went on to lead the market and business forecasting team at Lucas Varity which became TRW Aeronautical Systems and later Goodrich Aerospace. As an industry supporter, Clive is a member of the ADS Market Development Board. For the last few years, Achieving the Difference has delivered the market forecast used by ADS and UK Trade & Investment to determine their international support strategy for the sector.

For further details, contact Daniel Sedman (Sales Manager Europe) at: Tel: +44 208 652 3914 Email: daniel.sedman@flightglobal.com
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