Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Table of Contents
EQUITIES ECONOMY FIXED INCOME INTERNATIONAL ASSET CLASS U.S. Market Strategy Team
Dr. David P. Kelly, CFA Andrew D. Goldberg Joseph S S. Tanious Tanious, CFA Andrs Garcia-Amaya Brandon D. Odenath David M. Lebovitz Anthony M. Wile david.p.kelly@jpmorgan.com andrew.d.goldberg@jpmorgan.com joseph s tanious@jpmorgan com joseph.s.tanious@jpmorgan.com andres.d.garcia@jpmorgan.com brandon.d.odenath@jpmorgan.com david.m.lebovitz@jpmorgan.com anthony.m.wile@jpmorgan.com
4 17 33 41 54
www.jpmorganfunds.com/mi
Past performance is no guarantee of comparable future results.
Page Reference
Equities
4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 3 14. 15. 16. Returns by Style Returns by Sector U.S. Equity Indexes S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points Equity Scenarios: Bull, Bear and In-between Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index Earnings Estimates and Valuations by Style Earnings per Share: Margins and Revenues Sources of Corporate Profitability Deploying ep oy g Corporate Co po ate Cas Cash Broad Market Lagged Price to Earnings Ratio P/E Ratios and Equity Returns Equity Correlations and Volatility 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Fixed Income Yields and Returns The Fed and the Money Supply Credit Conditions High Yield Bonds Municipal Finance Emerging Market Debt
International
41. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. 51 51. 52. 53. Global Equity Markets: Returns and Composition Global Economic Growth Global Monetary Policy The Importance p of Exports p The Impact of Global Consumers European Crisis: Fiscal Challenges European Crisis: Financial System Risks European Crisis: Structural Headwinds Chinese Growth and Economic Policy Global Equity Valuations Developed Markets Global Equity Valuations Emerging Markets International Economic and Demographic Data Current Account Deficit and U.S. Dollar
Economy
17. 18 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP Cyclical Sectors Consumer Finances Federal Finances: Outlays and Revenues Federal Finances: Deficits and Debt Taxes Rates and the Distribution of Income and Taxes U.S. Political Perspectives The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble Employment Employment and Income by Educational Attainment Employment Gains and Losses Consumer Price Index Returns in Different Inflation Environments 40 years Oil and the Economy Global Oil Supply Consumer Confidence and the Stock Market
Asset Class
54. 55. 56 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. 66. Asset Class Returns Risk On / Risk Off Correlations Mutual Fund Flows Dividend Income: Domestic and Global Global Commodities Gold Historical Returns by Holding Period Diversification and the Average Investor Annual Returns and Intra-year Declines Alternative Investment Returns Cash Accounts Corporate DB Plans and Endowments The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1900
Fixed Income
33. Fixed Income Sector Returns 34. Interest Rates and Inflation
Returns by Style
Charts reflect index levels (price change only). All returns and annotations reflect total return, including dividends.
S&P 500 Index
1,450 ,
2Q 2012
Value Large Blend Growth
2012 YTD
Value Large Blend Growth
Equities
2Q12: -2.8%
-2.2%
-2.8%
-4.0%
8.7%
9.5%
10.1%
Mid
1,325 1,300 1,275 1,250 1,225 Dec-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
-3.3%
-4.4%
-5.6%
Mid
7.8%
8.0%
8.1%
2012: +9.5%
Small
-3.0%
-3.5%
-3.9%
Small
8.2%
8.5%
8.8%
Value
Blend
Growth
-12.6%
-3.4%
7.6%
Mid
0.0%
2.6%
4.2%
Mid Small
Small
-3.1%
0.9%
4.6%
Feb-08
Mar-09
Apr-10
May-11
Jun-12
Source: Russell Investment Group, Standard & Poors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All calculations are cumulative total return return, including dividends reinvested for the stated period period. Since Market Peak represents period 10/9/07 6/30/12, illustrating market returns since the most recent S&P 500 Index high on 10/9/07. Since Market Low represents period 3/9/09 6/30/12, illustrating market returns since the S&P 500 Index low on 3/9/09. Returns are cumulative returns, not annualized. For all time periods, total return is based on Russell-style indexes with the exception of the large blend category, which is reflected by the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Returns by Sector
Di sc r. es ar e du st ria ls St ap l og In d S& P
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% -2.8 Retur rn Div P/E 9.5 -3.4 115.9 1.00 12 3x 12.3x 16.8x 14.4x 19.6x 2.1% 1.7%
na nc ia ls
Te le co m
at er ia ls
Te ch n
He al th
er gy
s.
s.
Co n
Co n
Fi
In
En
Ut il
iti
Equities
-6.8 13.7 -54.6 147.9 1.36 10 4x 10.4x 13.0x 12.4x 15.9x 1.8% 2.1%
-6.7 13.3 14.3 139.5 1.25 11 9x 11.9x 24.1x 14.3x 26.8x 1.2% 0.6%
1.7 11.0 16.1 87.2 0.65 12 4x 12.4x 18.8x 16.9x 24.2x 2.4% 1.5%
-3.6 7.3 -8.2 152.3 1.15 12 2x 12.2x 17.1x 14.6x 20.4x 2.6% 1.8%
-6.0 -2.3 -5.4 73.3 0.92 10 0x 10.0x 14.7x 9.9x 18.2x 2.5% 1.9%
-2.6 12.9 25.3 190.1 1.12 14 3x 14.3x 18.8x 14.5x 19.7x 1.7% 1.0%
2.9 8.6 42.2 99.5 0.53 15 5x 15.5x 18.7x 18.2x 21.2x 3.0% 2.0%
14.1 16.5 5.1 100.7 0.88 18 2x 18.2x 17.5x 48.3x 19.0x 5.0% 3.8%
6.5 4.8 9.1 91.0 0.56 15 2x 15.2x 13.6x 16.3x 14.3x 4.2% 4.5%
-4.2 6.5 -7.9 119.4 1.26 12 0x 12.0x 16.3x 15.1x 19.7x 2.5% 2.1%
S Source: Standard St d d & P Poors, R Russell ll I Investment t tG Group, F FactSet, tS t J.P. J P Morgan M Asset A t Management. M t All calculations are cumulative total return, not annualized, including dividends for the stated period. Since Market Peak represents period 10/9/07 6/30/12. Since Market Low represents period 3/9/09 6/30/12. Forward P/E Ratio is a bottom-up calculation based on the most recent S&P 500 Index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Trailing P/E ratios are bottom-up values defined as month-end price divided by the last 12 months of available reported earnings. Historical data can change as new information becomes available. Note that P/E ratios for the S&P 500 may differ from estimates elsewhere in this book due to the use of a bottom-up calculation of constituent earnings (as described) rather than a top-down calculation. This methodology is used to allow proper comparison of sector level data to broad index level data. Dividend yields are bottom-up bottom up values defined as the annualized value of the most recent cash dividend as a percent of month-end price. Beta calculations are based on 10 years of monthly price returns for the S&P 500 and its sub-indices. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Weight
S&P Weight
50 0
ol
es
ex
S&P Indexes
S&P 500 S&P Mid Cap 400 S&P Small Cap 600
Dow Jones
Industrials (30) Industrials
Equities
Russell 3000
Russell 2000
Value (690)
Mark et Cap Index S&P 500 Russell 1000 Dow Jones Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth S&P Mid Cap 400 Russell Mid Cap Russell 2000 Russell 3000 W td Av g 110.5 bn 97.9 144.9 88.0 107.8 3.8 8.2 1.2 90.5 T otal 12,303 bn 13,886 3,922 7,010 6,876 1,116 4,092 1,150 15,036 T op 10 21.0% 18.4 55.7 27.9 27.3 7.4 4.3 2.4 17.0
W eight Bottom 100 2.9% 0.9 44.3 0.9 0.8 10.7 3.0 0.5 0.0
Size (Lipper*) Large 90.8% 81.3 99.5 79.8 82.9 1.9 36.6 0.0 75.1 Mid 8.5% 14.2 0.5 14.5 13.9 51.3 48.2 0.5 13.1 Small 0.7% 4.5 0.0 5.7 3.2 46.9 15.2 99.5 11.7
Valuation Div Yld 2.2% 2.2 2.5 2.8 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.2 Fwd P/ E 12.3x 12.9 12.1 11.3 14.9 14.3 14.3 17.2 13.1
Market Cap is a bottom-up weighted average based on share information from Compustat and price information from FactSet's pricing database as provided by Standard & Poor's and Russell Investment Group, p respectively. p y Dividend Yield is calculated based on the trailing g 12 months of dividends and is p provided by y FactSets p pricing g database for S&P and Dow Indexes and Russell for the Russell Indexes. Forward P/E is a bottom-up calculation based on the most recent S&P 500 price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Top 10 represents summed benchmark weight of 10 largest stocks in respective index. Bottom 100 represents summed benchmark weight of 100 smallest stocks in respective index. *Lipper mutual fund size parameters are used for illustrative purposes only and are hypothetical distributions based on Lipper mutual fund categories. As of May 2012, Lipper defines large as market cap over $11.4 billion, small as less than $4.0 billion and mid as all values in between. The number of holdings as of 6/30/12 are Russell 1000: 991; Russell Mid Cap: 800; Russell 2000: 2,002; Russell 3000: 2,993. Data are as of 6/30/12.
All Sm
Mid
Large
Characteristic Index level P/E ratio (fwd.) Di id d yield Dividend i ld 10-yr. Treasury
Equities
1 527 1,527
1,565
Jun. 30, 2012 P/E (fwd.) = 12.3x
1,362
1,400
+101%
1,200
1 000 1,000
+101% 101%
800
Dec. 31, 1996 P/E (fwd.) = 16.0x Oct. 9, 2002 Oct 00 P/E (fwd.) = 14.1x M Mar. 9, 9 2009 P/E (fwd.) = 10.3x
741
777
677
600 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Source: Standard & Poors, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Dividend y yield is calculated as the annualized dividend rate divided by y price, p as p provided by y Compustat. p Forward Price to Earnings g Ratio is a bottom-up p calculation based on the most recent S&P 500 Index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Returns are cumulative and based on S&P 500 Index price movement only, and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Equities
16 9% 16.9% 19.2%
7/15/57
10/22/57
-20.7%
86.4%
50
0.9 yrs
21.6%
12/12/61 6/26/62 -28.0% 28 0% 6 79 8% 79.8% 44 1 2 yrs 1.2
2/9/66
10/7/66
-22.2%
48.0%
26
0.6 yrs
6/30/12 Level Decline Peak to Trough Recovery So Far Distance Left to Peak
11/29/68
5/26/70
-36.1%
18
74.2%
31
1.8 yrs
1/5/73
10/3/74
-48.4%
21
125.6%
74
5.8 yrs
11/28/80
8/12/82
-27.1%
20
228.8%
60
0.2 yrs
8/25/87
12/4/87
-33.5%
582.1%
148
1.6 yrs
3/24/00
10/9/02
-49.1%
31
101.5%
60
4.6 yrs
36.9% 39.7%
Average:
176.0% 68 mo's
Source: Standard & Poors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Left) Data assume 2.0% annualized dividend yield. Implied values reflect the average geometric total returns required for the S&P 500 to reach its 10/9/07 peak of 1,565 over each stated time period. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. (Right) A bear market is defined as a peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500 Index (price only) of 20% or more. The bull run data reflect the market expansion from the bear market low to the subsequent market peak. All returns are S&P 500 Index returns and do not include dividends. *Current bull run from 3/9/09 through 6/30/12. Data are as of 6/30/12.
1-year ago
12.4x 2.3 8.4 1.2 0.8 2.1%
10-year avg.
14.4x 2.5 9.8 1.3 1.2 2.1%
15-year avg.
16.8x 3.1 11.1 1.5 1.2 1.9%
Equities
8%
7% 6% 5% 4%
'55
'60
'65
'70
'75
'80
'85
'90
'95
'00
'05
'10
3% '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: (Top) Standard & Poors, FactSet, Robert Shiller Data, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Price to Book is price divided by book value per share. Data post-1992 post 1992 include intangibles and are provided by Standard & Poors Poor s. Price to Cash Flow is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of cash flow per share for the next 12 months. Price to Sales is calculated as price divided by consensus analyst estimates of sales per share for the next 12 months. PEG Ratio is calculated as NTM P/E divided by NTM earnings growth. Dividend Yield is calculated as consensus analyst estimates of dividends for the next 12 months divided by price. All consensus analyst estimates are provided by FactSet. (Bottom left) Cyclically adjusted P/E uses as reported earnings throughout. (Bottom right) Standard & Poors, Moodys, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/12.
24x
Equities
20x
16x
Mid
Small
12x
Mid
Average: 16.2x
89.6%
85.6%
71.5%
Small
90.5%
84.2%
75.4%
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
10
Source: (Top and bottom left) Standard & Poors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) Russell Investment Group, IBES, FactSet. Earnings estimates are for calendar years and taken at quarter end dates throughout the year. Forward Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. P/E ratios are calculated and provided by Russell based on IBES consensus estimates of earnings over the next 12 months. Data are as of 6/30/12.
2Q07: $24.06
Equities
$23
50%
40% 44.0%
$11 $8 $5
8 1% 8.1% 29.8% 20% 20.0% 7.3% 10% 7.8% 4Q10 8.3% 11.6% 10.8% 6.5% 0.3% 7.3% 6.8% 3Q10 7.9% 4Q11 0.9% 6.6% 1Q12
Source: Standard & Poors, Compustat,, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. Most recently available data is 1Q12. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/12.
11
Equities
45% 6% 4% 2% 33% 0% '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 30% '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 440% '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 42% 39% 36% 480% 560%
36.4%
520%
469 0% 469.0%
'10 '12
Source: Standard & Poors, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Return on equity for S&P 500 companies calculated as the product of aggregate net income/sales, aggregate sales/assets and aggregate assets/equity for these 500 companies. Most recent data are from 4Q11 reflecting the last fully completed reporting period. Data are as of 6/30/12.
12
Corporate Growth
$1,300 $1 200 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900
Equities
20% 18% 16% 14% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
$140 $120
50%
$24
40%
$21
30%
$18 $15
Share Buybacks
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
$40 $20
20%
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
Source: Standard & Poors, FRB, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Securities, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top left) Standard & Poors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) M&A activity is quarterly number of deals of any value and capital expenditures are for nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business. (Bottom left) Standard & Poors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) Standard & Poors, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are most recent as of 6/30/12.
13
Ratio of market value of all U.S. corporations to adjusted after-tax corporate profits for prior four quarters
Equities
30x
25x
20x
15x
Average: 13.7x
10x
5x
0x '52 '55 '58 '61 '64 '67 '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12
Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Board, Wilshire Associates, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *The June 30, 2012 price is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimated based on the daily value of the Wilshire Total Market Index. Data are as of 6/30/12.
14
Equities
40%
40%
20%
20%
-20%
-20%
-40%
-40%
Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Prices are based on the market value of all U.S. corporations and include quarterly dividends. Valuation based on long-term PE ratio. Note: Orange line denote results of linear regression with R-squared of 0.15 for 1-yr. returns (LHS) and 0.35 for 5-yr. returns (RHS). Data are as of 6/30/12.
15
Equities
Great Depression / World War II Cuban Missile Crisis OPEC Oil Crisis
1987 Crash
Average: 26.7%
90 75 60 45
1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% '30 '35 '40 '45 '50 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Source: (Top) Empirical Research Partners LLC, Standard & Poors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Capitalization weighted correlation of top 750 stocks by market capitalization, daily returns, 1926 Jun. 28, 2012. (Bottom) CBOE, Dow Jones, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. DJIA volatility are represented as three-month moving averages of the daily absolute percentage change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Charts shown for illustrative purposes only. Data are as of 6/30/12. '10 30 15 0
16
Components of GDP
20-yr avg. 1Q12 Real GDP: 2.6% 1.9%
$16,000 $14,000
$685 bn of output p lost
8% 6%
Econom my
71.2% Consumption
-$2,000
Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. GDP values l shown h i in l legend d are % change h vs. prior i quarter t annualized li d and d reflect fl t revised i d 1Q12 GDP. GDP Data are as of 6/30/12.
17
Cyclical Sectors
Light Vehicle Sales
24 22 20 18 16
43 42 41 40 39 38 37
Econom my
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Housing Starts
Non defense capital goods orders ex. Non-defense ex aircraft, aircraft $ bn bn, seasonally adjusted
Average: 1,442
60 55 50
Average: 57.5
Source: (Top left) BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom left) Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Capital goods orders deflated using the producer price index for capital goods. Data are as of 6/30/12.
18
Consumer Finances
Consumer Balance Sheet
Trillions of dollars outstanding, not seasonally adjusted
$80
$70
Homes: 24%
6% 4%
Econom my
$60
Other tangible: 7%
$50
2% 0% '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
Deposits: 11%
$40
Household Debt Service Ratio Debt payments as % of disposable personal income, seasonally adjusted
15%
3Q07: 14.1%
$20
Revolving (e.g.: credit cards): 6% Non-revolving: 12% Other Liabilities: 9% Other financial assets: 39% Total Liabilities: $13.4 tn
$10
Mortgages: 72%
10%
$0
Source: (Left) S (L ft) FRB, FRB J.P. J P Morgan M Asset A t Management. M t Data D t includes i l d households h h ld and d nonprofit fit organizations. i ti (Ri (Right) ht) BEA, BEA FRB FRB, J.P. J P Morgan M A Asset t Management. Personal savings rate is calculated as personal savings (after-tax income personal outlays) divided by after-tax income. Employer and employee contributions to retirement funds are included in after-tax income but not in personal outlays, and thus are implicitly included in personal savings. Savings rate data as of May 2012. *2Q12 Household Debt Service Ratio is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimate. All other data are as of 1Q12. Data are as of 6/30/12.
19
Other $504bn (14%) Net Int.: $224bn (6%) Non defense Non-defense Discretionary: $630bn (17%) Defense: $673bn (19%) Borrowing: $1,171bn (32%)
24%
$3.0
Econom my
2012*: 23.4%
22%
$2.5
$2.0
20%
Average: 20.5%
$1.5
$1.0
18%
Average: 17.9%
16%
$0.5
Revenues Outlays
2012*: 15.7%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2012 Federal Budget is based on the CBOs March 2012 Baseline Scenario. *2012 revenues and outlays are forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct. 1 through Sep. 30). Data are as of 6/30/12.
20
Forecast
2% 80% 0%
Forecast
2022*: 80.0%
Econom my
-2%
60%
2022*: 61.3%
-4%
-6%
40%
-8%
CBO Baseline 2011 Actual -10% 2012 Est. 2013 Proj. -12% 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, CBO, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 2018 2022 -8.7% 8.7% -7.6% -3.8% Alt. -8.7% 8.7% -7.6% -6.6% 0% 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
20%
2011 Actual 2012 Est. 2013 Proj.
2011 numbers are actuals. 2012 Federal Budget is based on the CBOs March 2012 Baseline Scenario. *Alternative scenario based on CBO Alternative Scenario for spending and President Obamas budget for revenues. Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct. 1 through Sep. 30). Chart on the left displays federal surplus/deficit (revenues outlays). Data are as of 6/30/12.
21
Dividends
Wage Income
40%
Econom my
Capital Gains
20% 0%
1930's
1940's
1950's
1960's
1970's
1980's
1990's
2000's
Current
Current and scheduled 2013 maximum federal tax rates under current law
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Wage income Capital Gains* Dividends* Payroll Tax** Estate Tax*** 15.0% 37.9% 23.8% 15.0% 10.4% 12.4%
Taxes
55.0%
Scheduled 2013
43.4% 35.0%
Top 5% 58.7%
5% to 25% 28.6%
22
Source: (Top left) IRS, IRS J.P. J P Morgan Asset Management Management. Wage income tax rates include employer and employee contributions to the Medicare tax tax. (Bottom left) IRS, IRS The Tax Foundation, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Tax rates based on maximum U.S. individual income tax. Wage income tax rates include employer and employee contributions to the Medicare tax. *Includes recently enacted healthcare tax of 3.8%. **In 2011 and 2012, the payroll tax cut reduced the employees share of Social Security taxes by 2%. Rates shown include both employer and employee contributions to the payroll tax. ***In 2013, the estate tax exemption amount was expected to fall to $1 million from $5.12 million in 2012. (Right) IRS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Taxes paid are based on federal individual income taxes, which are responsible for about 25% of the nation's taxes paid. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Senate House
Econom my
Presidential Congressional
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
1919
1937
1955
1973
1991
2009
70%
Senate House
16% 12%
60% 8% 50% 4% 40% 1939 1951 1963 1975 1987 1999 2011 0% DRR DDD RDD RRR RRD
Source: U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Gallup Inc., FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *In roll call votes where the majority in one party voted the opposite way to the majority in the other. Data compiled by Professors Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal available at www.voteview.com. Stock market returns are price only and calculated from election date to election date from11/5/40 to 11/4/08.
23
2Q12*: $719
Econom my
150 $500 $350 140 $200 '88 130 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Monthly Rent
Home Inventories
Milli Millions, annuall rate, t seasonally ll adjusted dj t d
4.5 4.0
120
110
3.5 30 3.0
100
2.5 2.0
90 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
1.5
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Sources: (Left) National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poors, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Monthly mortgage payment assumes a 20% down payment at prevailing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates; analysis based on median asking rent and median mortgage payment based on asking price. (Bottom right) Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2Q12 rent and mortgage payment values are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates.
24
Employment
Civilian Unemployment Rate
Seasonally adjusted
12%
11%
400
10%
Econom my
200
9% 0 8%
7% % -400 6% -600 5%
4%
-1,000 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Source: BLS BLS, FactSet, FactSet J.P. J P Morgan Asset Management Management. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Source: BLS BLS, FactSet, FactSet J.P. J P Morgan Asset Management Management.
25
$87,194
16%
14%
Less than High School Degree High School No College Some College College or Greater May 2012: 13 0% 13.0%
$80,000
+31K
$70,000
Econom my
12%
$60,000
$56,665
10%
$50,000
8%
+26K
$40 000 $40,000
6%
$30,627
$30,000
4%
$20,000
$10,000
0% '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: BLS BLS, FactSet, FactSet J.P. J P Morgan Asset Management Management. Unemployment rates shown are for civilians aged 25 and older. Data are as of 6/30/12.
26
6.9
Health Care
6.8
Econom my
40
42 4.2
30
Quits: 24.3mm
Education
4.0
3.3
Other Services
20
1.1
1.1
10
Government
08 0.8
Manufacturing
-6.0
-4.9
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
0
Source: BLS BLS, FactSet, FactSet J.P. J P Morgan Asset Management Management. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Source: BLS BLS, FactSet, FactSet J.P. J P Morgan Asset Management Management.
27
Weight in CPI 15.3% 41.0% 3.6% 16.9% 7.1% 6.0% 6.8% 3 4% 3.4% 100.0%
12-month Change 2.7% 1.6% 4.4% 0.2% 3.6% 0.9% 2.2% 1 9% 1.9% 1.7%
4.2% 4.1%
1.7% 2.3%
12%
Econom my
9%
6%
3%
0%
Energy Food
-3% '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI values shown are % change vs. 1 year ago and reflect May 2012 CPI data. CPI component weights are as of December 2011 and 12-month change reflects non-seasonally adjusted data through May 2012. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Core CPI
28
Econom my
Equities
Cash
Commodities
29
Source: BLS BLS, Barclays Capital Capital, Robert Shiller, Shiller Federal Reserve, Reserve Strategas/Ibbotson, Strategas/Ibbotson Standard & Poor Poors s, FactSet, FactSet J.P. J P Morgan Asset Management Management. High or low inflation distinction is relative to median CPI-U inflation for the period 1971 to 2011. Rising or falling inflation distinction is relative to previous year CPI-U inflation rate. Bond returns are based on the Barclays U.S. Aggregate index since its inception in 1976 and a composite bond index prior to that. Equity returns based on S&P 500 price return and annual dividend yield. Cash returns are based on the Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill index since its inception in 1992 and 3-month T-Bill rates prior to that. Commodities returns based on GSCI. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future returns. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Gas
Oil Gas
$4.00
$140
3%
$3.50
$120
Econom my
2%
$3.00
$100
1%
$2.50
$80
0% '70
'75
'80
'85
'90
'95
'00
'05
'10
% of after-tax income
Lowest 20% 2nd 1.4% 4.6% 0.4% 5.9% 12.3% % Middle 20% 0.9% 3.1% 0.3% 4.8% 9.1% % 4th 0.7% 2.2% 0.2% 3.7% 6.8% % Top 20% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 2.2% 4.0% % Natural Gas Electricity
$1.50
$40
$1.00
$20
$0.50 '94
Total Energy gy
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price of gas based on U.S. retail national average of all formulations and WTI for crude. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Source: (Top) BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom) BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2Q12 drag on growth is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimate.
30
Econom my
Iran 4.9%
100 50
Egypt 0.8%
Sudan S d 0.6%
EIA forecast
2 1 0 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Source: EIA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forecast from the June EIA Short Term Energy Outlook.
31
120
Econom my
Average: 85.3
80
70
Mar. 2003 +32.8% Oct. 2005 +14.2% Oct. 1990 +29.1% May 1980 +19.2%
'78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
60
50
Aug. 2011 ?
32
2002
TIPS 16.7% EMD 12.2% Treas. 11 8% 11.8% Barclays Agg 10.3% Corp. 10.1% Asset Alloc. 10.0% Muni 9.6% MBS 8.7% High Yield -1.4%
2003
High Yield 29.0% EMD 26.9% TIPS 10 6% 10.6% Asset Alloc. 10.0% Corp. 8.2% Muni 5.3% Barclays Agg 4.1% MBS 3.1% Treas. 2.2%
2004
EMD 11.9% High Yield 11.1% TIPS 6 3% 6.3% Asset Alloc. 6.0% Corp. 5.4% MBS 4.7% Muni 4.5% Barclays Agg 4.3% Treas. 3.5%
2005
EMD 12.3% Asset Alloc. 3.6% Muni 3 5% 3.5% TIPS 2.8% Treas. 2.8% High Yield 2.7% MBS 2.6% Barclays Agg 2.4% Corp. 1.7%
2006
High Yield 11.8% EMD 10.0% MBS 5 2% 5.2% Asset Alloc. 5.1% Muni 4.8% Barclays Agg 4.3% Corp. 4.3% Treas. 3.1% TIPS 0.4%
2007
TIPS 11.6% Treas. 9.0% Barclays Agg 7 0% 7.0% MBS 6.9% Asset Alloc. 6.2% EMD 5.2% Corp. 4.6% Muni 3.4%
2008
Treas. 13.7% MBS 8.3% Barclays Agg 5 2% 5.2% Asset Alloc. -1.4% TIPS -2.4% Muni -2.5% Corp. -4.9% EMD -14.7%
2009
High Yield 58.2% EMD 34.2% Corp. 18 7% 18.7% Asset Alloc. 15.8% Muni 12.9% TIPS 11.4% Barclays Agg 5.9% MBS 5.9% Treas. -3.6%
2010
High Yield 15.1% EMD 12.8% Corp. 9 0% 9.0% Asset Alloc. 7.6% Barclays Agg 6.5% TIPS 6.3% Treas. 5.9% MBS 5.4% Muni 2.4%
2011
TIPS 13.6% Muni 10.7% Treas. 9 8% 9.8% Asset Alloc. 8.9% Corp. 8.2% Barclays Agg 7.8% EMD 7.0% MBS 6.2% High Yield 5.0%
2012 YTD
High Yield 7.3% EMD 7.0% Corp. 4 7% 4.7% TIPS 4.0% Asset Alloc. 3.9% Muni 3.7% Barclays Agg 2.4% MBS 1.7% Treas. 1.5%
2Q12
TIPS 3.2% Treas. 2.8% Corp. 2 5% 2.5% Asset Alloc. 2.2% Barclays Agg 2.1% Muni 1.9% High Yield 1.8% EMD 1.4% MBS 1.1%
Fixed In ncome
Source: Barclays Capital, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Fixed income sectors shown above are provided by Barclays Capital and are represented by: Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index; MBS: Fixed Rate MBS Index; Corporate: U.S. Corporates; Municipals: Muni Bond Index; Emerging Debt: Emerging Markets Index; High Yield: Corporate High Yield Index; Treasuries: Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury; TIPS: Barclays Capital TIPS. The Asset Allocation portfolio assumes the following weights: 10% in MBS, 20% in Corporate, 15% in Municipals, 10% in Emerging Debt, 10% in High Yield, 25% in Treasuries, 10% in TIPS. Asset allocation portfolio assumes annual rebalancing.
33
10%
Fixed In ncome
5%
0%
-5%
-10% 10% '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
Source: Federal Reserve, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Real 10-year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily Treasury yield less year-over-year core inflation for that month except for June 2012, where real yields are calculated by subtracting out May 2012 year-over-year core inflation.
34
Return 2012 YTD 0.04% 1.46 3.40 3.95 2Q12 0.12% 1.95 5.78 12.64
Source: U.S. Treasury, Barclays Capital, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Fixed income sectors shown above are provided by Barclays Capital and are represented by Broad Market: U.S. Barclays Capital Index; MBS: Fixed Rate MBS Index; Corporate: U.S. Corporates; Municipals: Muni Bond Index; Emerging Debt: Emerging Markets Index; High Yield: Corporate High Yield Index. TIPS: Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS). Treasury securities data for # of issues and market value based on U.S. Treasury benchmarks from Barclays Capital. Yield and return information based on Bellwethers for Treasury securities.
# of issues
5 10 30
Fixed In ncome
+1%
25% 19.9% -1% 20% 15% 9.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.6% 10% 5.1% 5.0% 4.1% 3.5% 3.2% 5% 0.7% 0% -5% -2.0% -3.2% -4.1% -4.9% 4.9% -5 5.0% 0% -5 5.1% 1% -10% 10% -6.6% 6 6% -7.0% -7.5% -9.0% -15% -20% -19.8% -25% 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year Sector MBS High Yield TIPS Broad Mkt EMD Corp. Munis
35
Fixed In ncome
0% '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
2012
2013
2014
Longer run
M2 Money Multiplier
Monetary Base
$1 5 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
7x 6 6x 5x 4x 3x 2x
Excess Reserves
Source: Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Monetary base is defined as the total amount of a currency that is either circulated in the hands of the public or in the commercial bank deposits held in the central bank's reserves. Money multiplier defined as M2 divided by the monetary base. Data are as of 6/30/12.
36
Credit Conditions
Lending Standards
Net percent of banks reporting tighter lending standards
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20%
Commercial and Industrial Loans 84% (Medium & Large Firms) Consumer Loans 67%
31%
-7% -8%
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Fixed In ncome
-40%
Delinquency Rates
All b banks, k seasonally ll adjusted dj t d
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
9.9%
12% 10% 8%
2011: 11.1%
Average: 7.6%
2.9%
6%
1.5%
'10 '12
4% '34 34 '41 41 '48 48 '55 55 '62 62 '69 69 '76 76 '83 83 '90 90 '97 97 '04 04 '11 11
37
Source: (Top left) Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom left): Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) FDIC, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All data reflect most recently available releases. 2Q11 2Q12 estimates of lending standards on consumer loans are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Data are as of 6/30/12.
15%
10%
5%
0%
Fixed In ncome
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Historical High Yield Recovery Rates High g y yield bonds, , cents on the dollar
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
Average: 39.2
$200 $150 $100 $50 $0 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
38
Source (Top chart): U.S. Treasury, J.P. Morgan, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Default rates are defined as the par value percentage of the total market trading at or below 50% of par value and include any Chapter 11 filing, prepackaged filing or missed interest payments. (Bottom left): J.P Morgan, Moodys, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right): J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Yield to worst is defined as the lowest potential yield that can be received on a bond without the issuer actually defaulting and reflects the possibility of the bond being called at an unfavorable time for the holder. Spreads indicated are benchmark yield to worst less comparable maturity Treasury yields. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results. 2011 recovery rates are as of March 30, 2012, and 2012 issuance is as of June 29, 2012. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Municipal Finance
Muni/Treasury Ratio Ratio of Barclays 10-year Municipal Bond yield to 10-year Treasury
240%
220%
7%
200%
6%
1Q12: 5.6%
180%
5%
Fixed In ncome
160%
4% '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
140%
120%
100%
80%
$100
60% '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
$0 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Source (Left chart): Barclays Capital, U.S. Treasury, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) SIFMA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Excludes maturities of 13 months or less and private placements. 2012 issuance data is as of May 2012. Data are as of 6/30/12.
39
8% 6%
4% 2% 0% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
0%
Fixed In ncome
EMBIG
CEMBI
8%
7%
Average: 6.8%
6%
40
Source: J.P. Morgan, IMF, MorganMarkets, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Spreads measure the credit risk premium over comparable maturity U.S. Treasury bonds. The J.P. Morgan EMBI Global (EMBIG) Index is a USD-denominated external debt index tracking bonds issued by sovereigns and quasi-sovereigns in developing nations. The J.P. Morgan Corporate Emerging Bond Index (CEMBI) is a USD-denominated external debt index tracking bonds issued by corporations. The J.P. Morgan GBI-EM index is a local currency-denominated index tracking bonds issued by emerging market governments. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Regions / Broad Indexes USA (S&P 500) EAFE Europe ex ex-U.K. UK Pacific ex-Japan Emerging Markets -5.1 -4.3 43 -4.1 -5.1 -2.8 -6.9 -8.7 87 -4.9 -8.8 4.7 47 4.7 5.5 5.1 9.5 3.4 28 2.8 5.9 4.1
United States 48%
MSCI: Selected Countries United Kingdom France -2.2 -3.6 -7.4 -10.1 0 -5.3 -0.9 -10.1 -6.6 66 -4.0 -8.2 -11.7 -7.3 3 -5.3 -9.5 -18.8 -14.0 14 0 2.4 5.5 9.3 7.1 4.0 14.2 0.1 28 2.8 3.4 3.1 6.8 3.2 3 4.1 8.6 -7.5 20 2.0
International
Canada 2%
Other Developed 5%
Source: Standard & Poors, MSCI, IMF, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All return values are MSCI Gross Index (official) data. Share of global GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) as calculated by the IMF for 2012. Definition of emerging markets is based on MSCI and IMF data sources, respectively. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Data as of 6/30/12.
41
International
6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Developed Countries Japan U.S. Canada Germany U.K. France Italy
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forecast and aggregate data come from J.P. Morgan Global Economic Research. Data are as of 6/30/12.
42
2% 1% 0% -1%
Inflation Rate
International
South Africa
Hong Kong
Euro area
Indonesia
Thailand
Russia
Colombia
Canada
Australia
Poland
Mexico
Taiwan
Turkey
Japan
Korea
China
India
-7.0%
U.K.
U.S.
D Developed l dM Markets k t
E Emerging i M Markets k t
43
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top charts) Emerging and Developed Economy GDP growth and real policy rates represent GDP weighted aggregates estimated by J.P. Morgan Global Economics Research. (Bottom chart) Target policy rates are the short-term target interest rates set by central banks. Inflation rates shown represent year-over-year quarterly rates for 1Q12. Real policy rates are short-term target interest rates set by central banks minus year-over-year inflation. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Brazil
10 3% 10.3%
10.2%
US
17.6%
15.5%
Eurozone
BRIC
Other
Total
2.0%
3.1%
2.3%
4.5%
4.4%
1.7%
26.1% 26.8% 6 8%
9.5%
2.1%
14.4%
1.5% 1.4%
6.9%
9.8%
6.2%
2.2%
1.7%
4.0%
14.0%
1.3% 4.8%
1.9%
10.0%
18.0%
5.8%
1.1%
12.7%
1.5%
21.1%
7.6%
International
1.4%
12.4%
2.0%
23.4%
1.6% 2.8%
19.2%
2.5%
26.0%
4.2% 10.7%
2.2%
21.8%
38.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Source: IMF, IMF J.P. J P Morgan Asset Management Management. Numbers represent exports of goods only and would be higher if services were included. Data are as of 6/30/12.
44
35%
30%
30%
25%
International
20%
15%
Source: FactSet, Compustat, Russell, J.P. Morgan Global Economics Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Estimates of global consumption for 2010 and 2011 provided by J.P. Morgan Global Economics Research. Foreign sales as a percentage of total sales is calculated as an unweighted average of individual index constituent companies reported sales figures and does not capture all index members due to differences in reporting practices. Data are as of 6/30/12.
45
6%
EM
= 5%
4%
Spain
International
-4%
-6% 20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
46
'84
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
International
$200
2.5
$100 2.0 $0 Greek Portugese Irish Spanish Italian U.S. banks exposure to all GIIPS
Exposure of all European banks to each countrys public sector, banking sector and derivative claims Source: FactSet, BIS, ECB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/12.
1.5 Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
47
110
Internatio onal
-2% -4% % -6% -8% Italy Germany Portugal Austria Greece Spain
Source: IMF, OECD, World Bank, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All data is as of 2011. Primary budget deficits for Portugal and Greece are IMF estimates for 2011. Data are as of 6/30/12.
100
90 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
48
30%
25%
*
'08 '11 '14
10%
Percentage of GDP
18% 16%
Mortgage Debt
United States (RHS) 1Q12: 14.0%
77% 75% 73% 14% 12% 10% 71%
International
China (LHS)
-25% 61% 8% Feb-08 Feb 08 Sep Sep-08 08 Apr Apr-09 09 Nov Nov-09 09 Jun Jun-10 10 Jan Jan-11 11 Aug Aug-11 11 Mar Mar-12 12 05 '06 06 '07 07 '08 08 '09 09 '10 10 '11 11 '12 12 '05 Source: (Top left) IMF, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) National Bureau of Statistics, J.P. Morgan Economics, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom left) IMF, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) Barclays Capital, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *In 2009, global growth was negligible, while Chinese growth was robust, which resulted in China contributing more than 1200% to global growth. Calculations based on PPP exchange rates and 2012 2016 growth forecasts are from the IMF.
1Q12: 62.9%
63%
49
Example Expensive relative to world Expensive relative to own history Cheap relative to own history
World (ACWI)
EAFE Index
France
Germany Australia
U.K.
Japan
Current Com posite Index World (ACWI) EAFE Index France Germ any Australia UK U.K. Japan Canada Sw itzerland United States -1.32 -2.28 -2.80 -2.35 -2.14 -2.03 2 03 -1.81 -1.46 0.00 0.08
Current Fw d. d P/E 11.2 10.5 9.5 9.0 11.1 96 9.6 12.1 11.9 11.8 12.4 P/B 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 16 1.6 1.0 1.7 1.9 2.1 P/CF 6.1 5.0 4.5 6.2 5.5 60 6.0 4.1 5.1 11.8 7.2 Div Yld Div. Yld. 2.9% 3.9% 4.3% 4.0% 5.2% 4 2% 4.2% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% 2.1% Fw d. d P/E 13.5 13.0 11.6 11.9 13.5 11 5 11.5 18.1 13.8 13.6 14.5
10-year avg. P/B 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.2 20 2.0 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 P/CF 7.1 6.3 5.9 4.6 8.3 72 7.2 6.3 7.3 9.8 8.5 Div Yld Div. Yld. 2.5% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 4.4% 3 8% 3.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2.0%
Internatio onal 50
Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Note: Each valuation index shows an equally weighted composite of four metrics: price to forward earnings (Fwd. P/E), price to current book (P/B), price to last 12 months cash flow (P/CF) and price to last 12 months dividends. Results are then normalized using means and average variability over the last 10 years. The grey bars represent valuation index variability relative to that of the All Country World Index (ACWI). See disclosures page at the end for metric definitions. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Example Expensive relative to world Expensive relative to own history Cheap relative to own history
+5 Std Dev +4 Std Dev +3 Std Dev +2 Std Dev +1 Std Dev Average -1 Std Dev -2 Std Dev -3 3 Std Dev -4 Std Dev -5 Std Dev
World (ACWI)
EM Index
Current posite Com p Index -1.32 -1.89 -4.10 -2.65 -2.44 -1.08 -0.90 -0.39 1.64 2.24
Russia
China
Brazil
Taiwan
South Africa
Korea
Mexico
India
Current Fw d. P/E 11.2 9.6 4.8 8.3 9.4 13.7 10.8 8.1 16.2 13.1 P/B 1.6 1.5 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.7 2.2 1.2 2.8 2.4 P/CF 6.1 5.5 2.8 4.0 5.7 6.5 8.0 5.4 6.5 12.6 Div. Yld. 2.9% 3.1% 3.8% 3.5% 4.4% 3.7% 3.7% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% Fw d. P/E 13.5 10.9 7.9 12.3 9.5 14.7 10.9 9.3 13.2 15.0
10-year avg. P/B 2.1 1.9 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.5 2.6 3.2 P/CF 7.1 5.7 5.0 4.2 5.5 6.6 7.4 5.0 5.6 12.1 Div. Yld. 2.5% 2.8% 2.1% 2.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 1.8% 2.1% 1.5%
World (ACWI) EM Index Russia China Brazil Taiw an South Africa Korea Mexico India
Internatio onal 51
Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Note: Each valuation index shows an equally weighted composite of four metrics: price to forward earnings (Fwd. P/E), price to current book (P/B), price to last 12 months cash flow (P/CF) and price to last 12 months dividends. Results are then normalized using means and average variability over the last 10 years. The grey bars represent valuation index variability relative to that of the All Country World Index (ACWI). See disclosures page at the end for metric definitions. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Demographics
C.A.
(%GDP)
Population
Median Age g 36.9 yrs 41.0 40.0 44 9 44.9 39.9 44.8 43.5
314 mm 34 63 81 66 127 61
International 52
Source: FactSet, Eurostat, CIA, J.P. Morgan Securities, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. GDP levels represent 2011 data and are from the April 2012 World Economic Outlook published by the IMF, except for the U.S. levels, which come directly from the BEA. All GDP Growth data are from J.P. Morgan Economics and expressed as % change versus prior quarter annualized. All GDP growth data are for 2Q12. India unemployment is from CIA estimates and is as of 2011. CPI Inflation is shown as % change versus a year ago and all data are for May 2012, except for India and Japan, which are as of April 2012. Unemployment rate for developed countries comes from FactSet Economics, Eurostat and Statistics Canada and represent the most recently available data. Demographic data provided by CIA World Factbook at CIA.gov. Current Account (C.A.) represents each countrys current account balance as of 3/30/12. Russia, China, and Brazils current accounts are as of 12/31/11. Data are as of 6/30/12.
4Q05: -6.5%
-6%
-4%
1Q12: -3.6%
95 90 85
-2%
International
80 75
0%
70 65
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/12 and are reported quarterly.
Source: Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/12.
53
2003
M SCI EM E 56.3% Russell 2000 47.3% M SCI EAFE 39.2% REITs 37.1% S&P 500 28.7% Asset Alloc. 25.2% DJ UBS Cmdty 22.7% M arket Neutral 7.1% Barclays Agg 4.1%
2004
REITs 31.6% M SCI EM E 26.0% M SCI EAFE 20.7% Russell 2000 18.3% Asset Alloc. 12.5% S&P 500 10.9% DJ UBS Cmdty 7.6% M arket Neutral 6.5% Barclays Agg 4.3%
2005
M SCI EM E 34.5% DJ UBS Cmdty 17.6% M SCI EAFE 14.0% REITs 12.2% Asset Alloc. 8.0% M arket Neutral 6.1% S&P 500 4.9% Russell 2000 4.6% Barclays Agg 2.4%
2006
REITs 35.1% M SCI EM E 32.6% M SCI EAFE 26.9% Russell 2000 18.4% S&P 500 15.8% Asset Alloc. 14.9% M arket Neutral 11.2% Barclays Agg 4.3% DJ UBS Cmdty -2.7%
2007
M SCI EM E 39.8% M SCI EAFE 11.6% DJ UBS Cmdty 11.1% M arket Neutral 9.3% Asset Alloc. 7.3% Barclays Agg 7.0% S&P 500 5.5% Russell 2000 -1.6% REITs -15.7%
2008
Barclays Agg 5.2% M arket Neutral 1.1%* Asset Alloc. -23.8% Russell 2000 -33.8% DJ UBS Cmdty -36.6% S&P 500 -37.0% REITs -37.7% M SCI EAFE -43.1% M SCI EM E -53.2%
2009
M SCI EM E 79.0% M SCI EAFE 32.5% REITs 28.0% Russell 2000 27.2% S&P 500 26.5% Asset Alloc. 22.5% DJ UBS Cmdty 18.7% Barclays Agg 5.9% M arket Neutral 4.1%
2010
REITs 28.0% Russell 2000 26.9% M SCI EM E 19.2% DJ UBS Cmdty 16.7% S&P 500 15.1% Asset Alloc. 12.7% M SCI EAFE 8.2% Barclays Agg 6.5% M arket Neutral -2.5%
2011
REITs 8.3% Barclays Agg 7.8% M arket Neutral 4.5% S&P 500 2.1% Asset Alloc. -0.2% Russell 2000 -4.2% M SCI EAFE -11.7% DJ UBS Cmdty -13.4% M SCI EM E -18.2%
2012YTD
REITs 14.9% S&P 500 9.5% Russell 2000 8.5% Asset Alloc. 5.1% M SCI EM E 4.1% M SCI EAFE 3.4% Barclays Agg 2.4% M arket Neutral -2.3% DJ UBS Cmdty -3.7%
2Q12
REITs 4.0% Barclays Agg 2.1% Asset Alloc. -2.1% S&P 500 -2.8% Russell 2000 -3.5% M arket Neutral -3.6% DJ UBS Cmdty -4.6% M SCI EAFE -6.9% M SCI EM E -8.8%
Asset Class 54
Source: Russell, MSCI, Dow Jones, Standard & Poors, Credit Suisse, Barclays Capital, NAREIT, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The Asset Asset Allocation Allocation portfolio assumes the following weights: 25% in the S&P 500 500, 10% in the Russell 2000 2000, 15% in the MSCI EAFE, EAFE 5% in the MSCI EMI EMI, 30% in the Barclays Capital Aggregate, 5% in the CS/Tremont Equity Market Neutral Index, 5% in the DJ UBS Commodity Index and 5% in the NAREIT Equity REIT Index. Balanced portfolio assumes annual rebalancing. All data except commodities represent total return for stated period. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/12, except for the CS/Tremont Equity Market Neutral Index, which reflects data through 2/29/12. 10-yrs returns represent annualized total return. These returns reflect the period from 1/1/02 12/31/11. Please see disclosure page at end for index definitions. *Market Neutral returns include estimates found in disclosures. Data are as of 6/30/12.
1 .0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 04 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1 .0
Move independently
Asset Class
1 ) 2) 3) 4) 1 .0 1 .0 0.9 0.9 1 .0 1 .0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1 .0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1 .0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8
5) 6) 7) 8) 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 1 .0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 1 .0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 1 .0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1 .0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5
9) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1 .0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -0.5
1 0) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1 .0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4
1 1 ) 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 1 .0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.4
1 2) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 1 .0 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2
1 3) 1 4) 1 5) 1 6) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 1 .0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 1 .0 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 1 .0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 1 .0 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5
1 7) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 1 .0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4
1 8) 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1 .0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0
1 9) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 1 .0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6
20) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 1 .0 0.4 0.2
21 ) -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.4 1 .0 0.3
22) -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 0.2 0.3 1 .0
1 .0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 01 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 0.9 9 -0 -1 .0
Move M independently
55
Source: Standard & Poors, Russell, Barclays Capital Inc., MSCI Inc., Credit Suisse/Tremont, NAREIT, DJ UBS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Correlation heat maps based on weekly percent change for calendar years shown. Currency correlations are based on trade weighted exchange rates. Sovereign bond correlations are based on changes in benchmark bond yield. Equity index correlations are based on total return. All other correlations are based on price return. Data are as of 6/30/12.
Difference Between Flows Into Stock and Bond Funds Billions, USD, U.S. and international funds, monthly
$40
May 12: $1,207 billion into bond funds and fixed income ETFs since 06
Bond flows exceeded equity flows b $29 billion by billi in i May M 2012
$20
$0
Asset Class
$400 $200
Bonds Stocks
May 12: 12: $205 billion into stock funds and equity ETFs since 06
$20 -$20
-$40
-$60 May '08 08 Nov '08 08 May '09 09 Nov '09 09 May '10 10 Nov '10 10 May '11 11 Nov '11 11 May '12 12
Source: Investment Company Institute, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data include flows through May 2012 and exclude ETFs. ICI data are subject to periodic revisions. World equity flows are inclusive of emerging market, global equity and regional equity flows. Hybrid flows include asset allocation, balanced fund, flexible portfolio and mixed income flows. Data are as of 6/30/12.
56
3.9%
4%
3 5% 3.5%
3% 2.2% 2%
Asset Class
3% 2% 1% 0%
1%
U.S.
Singapore
France
Australia
Canada
Japan
Global
U.K.
0%
U.S.
Australia
France
U.K.
Switzerland Canada
ACWI
Japan
Source: (Top chart) Standard & Poors, Ibbotson, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom left) FactSet, NAREIT, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Yields shown are that of the appropriate FTSE NAREIT REIT index, which excludes property development companies. (Bottom right) FactSet, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Yields shown are that of the appropriate MSCI index. Data are as of 6/30/12.
57
Global Commodities
Commodity Prices
Weekly index prices rebased to 100
600
Precious metals
500
36% 34%
Industrial metals
400
32% 30%
Energy
300
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
200
4%
Grains
2% 0% -2%
Asset Class
100
Livestock
0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Source: Dow Jones/UBS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Commodity prices represented by the appropriate DJ/UBS Commodity sub-index.
-4% -6%
-40% -60%
Source: (Top) USDA, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom) BLS, DJ/UBS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management Data are as of 6/30/12.
58
Gold
Gold Prices
$ / oz
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
Asset Class
$500
2010
Source: (Left chart) EcoWin, BLS, U.S. Department of Energy, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right table) U.S. Geological Survey, World Gold Council, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI adjusted gold values are calculated using month averages of gold spot prices divided by the CPI value for that month. CPI is rebased to 100 at the end of the chart. Data are as of 6/30/12.
59
16% 17%
14% 5%
Asset Class
-30% -40%
Sources: Barclays Capital, FactSet, Robert Shiller, Strategas/Ibbotson, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns shown are based on calendar year returns from 1950 to 2011.
60
26%
8% 8%
4%
13% 9%
22%
Asset Class
6.5% 6% 4.0% 4% 2.5% 2% 0% REITs Oil S&P 500 Gold Bonds EAFE Inflation Homes Average Investor 2.5% 2.1%
61
35%
26 26 17 27 26
34
31 27 20 20 14 13 4 -38 0 26 23
20%
-10
15
15
5%
10% -10%
-17 -17 -14
-7 -12
-8
-9
-8
-8
-6 6
-6 6
-5 -9
-3 -8 -11 -19 -12 -17 -26 -14 -8 -7 -8 -10 -16 -19 -28 -32 32
-25%
-20
Asset Class
-40%
-34
-55%
Source: Standard & Poors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Intra-year drops refers to the largest market drops over periods of 6 months or less. For illustrative purposes only. Returns shown are calendar year returns from 1980 to 2011. Data are as of 6/30/12.
-47
'80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
62
Asset Class
Source: Cambridge Associates LLC, NCREIF, CS/Tremont, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Cambridge PE and VC data provided at no charge. Other indexes shown are unmanaged and are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns for all periods are as of 3/31/12 with the exception of Private Equity and Venture Capital returns, which are as of 12/31/11. All returns are annualized for periods greater than 1 year. Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for the long term. They may not be tax efficient and have higher fees than traditional investments. They may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. *Market Neutral returns include estimates found in disclosures. **Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset in order to profit from a difference in the price. Data are as of 6/30/12.
63
Cash Accounts
Annual Income Generated by $100,000 Investment in a 6-month CD
$10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
$ Billions
2011: $419
Retail MMMFs
633
6.3%
Savings deposits
6,298
63.0%
706
7.1%
20%
628
6.3%
16%
Asset Class
Total
9,998
100.0%
64
Source: Federal Reserve, St. Louis Fed, Bankrate.com, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All cash measures obtained from the Federal Reserve are seasonally adjusted monthly numbers. All numbers are in billions of U.S. dollars. Small denomination time deposits are those iss Small-denomination issued ed in amo amounts nts of less than $100 $100,000. 000 All IRA and Keogh acco account nt balances at commercial banks and thrift institutions are subtracted from small time deposits. Annual income is for illustrative purposes and is calculated based on the 6-month CD yield on average during each year and $100,000 invested. IRA and Keogh account balances at money market mutual funds are subtracted from retail money funds. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results. Data are as of 6/30/12.
overfunded
underfunded
8% 22%
45.3%
32.0%
Fixed Income
78%
92%
Hedge Funds
1999
40% 33% 27% 27% 29%
2010
1999: Average 9.2% 2010: Average 7.4%
Private Equity
Real Estate
% of compa anies
20% 20% 16% 16% 9% 5% 2% 0% < 7% 7 to 7.5% 7.5 to 8% 8 to 8.5% 8.5 to 9% 9 to 9.5% 9.5 to 10% > 10% 1% 0% 0% 8%
Asset Class
Other
10%
7% 0%
Cash
% of total
40% 50%
return assumption
65
Source: NACUBO (National Association of College and University Business Officers), Towers Watson, Compustat/FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Endowments represents dollar-weighted average data of 842 colleges and universities. Pension Return Assumptions based on all available and reported data from S&P 500 Index companies. Funded Status based on 351 companies reporting pension funding status as of 3/31/11. Return assumption bands are inclusive of upper range. All information is shown for illustrative purposes only. Data are as of 6/30/12.
100
Asset Class
1906 1924
'10
'20
'30
'40
'50
'60
'70
'80
'90
'00
'10
Source: IDC, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data shown in log scale to best illustrate long-term index patterns. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Data are as of 6/30/12.
66
67
68
Cant find a slide? Please visit www.jpmorganfunds.com/bench to access slides from previous editions that are now on the bench.
NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE
JP-LITTLEBOOK
69