LANGAT DAM SAFETY STUDY: OVERTOPPING PREVENTION

LEE CHONG YOU

A project report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree of Bachelor (Hons.) of Civil Engineering

Faculty of Engineering and Science Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman

April 2013

DECLARATION

I hereby declare that this project report is based on my original work except for citations and quotations which have been duly acknowledged. I also declare that it has not been previously and concurrently submitted for any other degree or award at UTAR or other institutions.

Signature : Name ID No. Date : : :

_________________________ ____LEE CHONG YOU____ _______0908105___________ ____ 5 April 2013 ______

APPROVAL FOR SUBMISSION

I certify that this project report entitled LANGAT DAM SAFETY STUDY: OVERTOPPING PREVENTION was prepared by LEE CHONG YOU has met the required standard for submission in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Bachelor of Engineering (Hons.) Civil Engineering at Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman.

Approved by,

Signature : _________________________ Supervisor : Ir. Pan Wang Fook Date : _________________________

The copyright of this report belongs to the author under the terms of the copyright Act 1987 as qualified by Intellectual Property Policy of University Tunku Abdul Rahman. Due acknowledgement shall always be made of the use of any material contained in, or derived from, this report.

2013, Lee Chong You. All right reserved.

Specially dedicated to my beloved grandmother, mother and father

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to thank everyone who had contributed to the successful completion of this project. I would like to express my gratitude to my lectures, research supervisor and advisor of Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman for their invaluable advice, guidance and enormous patience throughout the development of the research. In addition, I would also like to express my gratitude to my loving parent for their love and greatest support to me during my toughest time. Besides, I would like to express my thousand thanks to my friends who had helped and given me encouragement.

LANGAT DAM SAFETY STUDY: OVERTOPPING PREVENTION

ABSTRACT

A hydrological dam safety assessment was carried out for Langat dam (CA= 41 km 2) by evaluating the performance of the bellmouth spillway in light of an extreme meteorological event of the PMP/PMF magnitude. It is important that the flood rise does not exceed or overtop the embankment dam crest level. Langat dam (CA= 41 km2) is a small catchment regulating water supply embankment dam that supply raw waters to Langat Mile 10 Water Treatment Plant (WTP) downstream on the main stem of Sg. Langat. It is one of part of a parallel reservoir operation in Sg. Semenyih basin. This study adopts inland type of PMPs as derived previously by SMHB (2012). A catchment routing procedure is used to translate the PMPs to PMFs for 1to 120-hour duration. The results of the PMPs/PMFs are comparable to the Creager type of catchment area-PMP relationship of various dams in Malaysia. A conventional reservoir routing procedure by modified Puls technique is then carried out for all PMP/PMF durations, i.e. 1- to 120-hour. In general, the flood rises for all durations are marginally lower than the ECL, +223.8 m msl. It is therefore concluded that Langat dam (CA= 41 km2) with its ample surcharge capacity is safe from the onslaught of a PMP/PMF event. However, the provision of wave run-up, normally an additional 1 m or so free board is no longer available. Therefore it is recommended that a parapet wall of 1.0 m in height can be installed along the dam crest on the water edge could be of help to mitigate simultaneous PMP/PMF event with higher wave run-up.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION APPROVAL FOR SUBMISSION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ABSTRACT TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF SYMBOLS / ABBREVIATIONS

1 2 5 6 7 13 15 18

INTRODUCTION 1 Background 2 Description of the Project 3 Objectives

20 20 22 27

LITERATURE REVIEW 1 Problem Statement 2 Tasks and Assignments

28 28 32

METHODOLOGY 1 Methodology of Hydrological Dam Safety Assessment 2 Pmp Review and Study 2.1 Rationale of PMP

33 33 36 37

3.2.1.1 Hydrometeorological Approach......................40 3.2.1.2 Hershfield Technique......................................47 Data Requirement for Hershfield Type PMP 2.2 Adopted PMP Convention by SMHB/B&P 50 54

8 2.3 Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) 3 Probable Maximum Flood 3.1 Introduction 3.3 Rorb Win Model Description 3.4 Comparison of PMFs 4 Reservoir Routing 4.1 Basic of Reservoir Routing Equation 4.3 Spillway Configuration 77 78 78 83 89 91 93 96

3.2 Hp 11 Hydrological Procedure (Taylor And Toh, 1976)81

4.2 Modified Puls Or Storage Indication Routing Method 94

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 1 PMP/PMF Catchment Routing 2 Reservoir Routing

98 98 102

CONCLUSION 1 Conclusion

111 111

REFERENCES

112

APPENDICES

116

The estimated PMPs for both dams were somewhat lower than the inland (and coastal) PMP series of SMHB/B&P. This was perhaps due to the larger catchment in the storm depth-catchment area relationship. The smaller the catchment area would have higher exposure to the spatial distribution of the storm precipitation. This is evidenced in the depth-areaduration curve shown in Figure 2 (DAD curve for envelopment of east coastal storm) 126

B4 Putrajaya: Perang Besar Reservoir, Angkasa-GHD, 1998

127

B9 Short Duration Rainfalls in Selangor, Desa and Rakhecha 2002

136

9 The PMP was estimated using statistical approach, presummedly methodology. Hershfields Table below shows statistically the PMPs

calculated up to 24 hour and the percentage distribution to the shorter durations. ...................143 Rainfall duration....................................................143 Relationship of PMP..............................................143 PMP (%).................................................................143 (mm)........................................................................143 3................................................................................143 67%..........................................................................143 322............................................................................143 6................................................................................143 83%..........................................................................143 399............................................................................143 12..............................................................................143 94%..........................................................................143 452............................................................................143 1-day........................................................................143 100%........................................................................143 481............................................................................143 Excerpted from JPZ (1998)...................................143

CHAPTER

INTRODUCTION 1 Background 2 Description of the Project 3 Objectives

20 20 22 27

LITERATURE REVIEW 1 Problem Statement

28 28

10 2 Tasks and Assignments 32

METHODOLOGY 1 Methodology of Hydrological Dam Safety Assessment 2 Pmp Review and Study 2.1 Rationale of PMP

33 33 36 37

3.2.1.1 Hydrometeorological Approach......................40 3.2.1.2 Hershfield Technique......................................47 Data Requirement for Hershfield Type PMP 2.2 Adopted PMP Convention by SMHB/B&P 2.3 Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) 3 Probable Maximum Flood 3.1 Introduction 3.3 Rorb Win Model Description 3.4 Comparison of PMFs 4 Reservoir Routing 4.1 Basic of Reservoir Routing Equation 4.3 Spillway Configuration 50 54 77 78 78 83 89 91 93 96

3.2 Hp 11 Hydrological Procedure (Taylor And Toh, 1976)81

4.2 Modified Puls Or Storage Indication Routing Method 94

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 1 PMP/PMF Catchment Routing 2 Reservoir Routing

98 98 102

CONCLUSION 1 Conclusion

111 111

REFERENCES

112

APPENDICES

116

11 The estimated PMPs for both dams were somewhat lower than the inland (and coastal) PMP series of SMHB/B&P. This was perhaps due to the larger catchment in the storm depth-catchment area relationship. The smaller the catchment area would have higher exposure to the spatial distribution of the storm precipitation. This is evidenced in the depth-areaduration curve shown in Figure 2 (DAD curve for envelopment of east coastal storm) 126

B4 Putrajaya: Perang Besar Reservoir, Angkasa-GHD, 1998

127

B9 Short Duration Rainfalls in Selangor, Desa and Rakhecha 2002 presummedly methodology. Hershfields Table below shows

136

The PMP was estimated using statistical approach, statistically the PMPs

calculated up to 24 hour and the percentage distribution to the shorter durations. ...................143 Rainfall duration....................................................143 Relationship of PMP..............................................143 PMP (%).................................................................143 (mm)........................................................................143 3................................................................................143 67%..........................................................................143 322............................................................................143 6................................................................................143 83%..........................................................................143 399............................................................................143 12..............................................................................143 94%..........................................................................143 452............................................................................143 1-day........................................................................143 100%........................................................................143 481............................................................................143 Excerpted from JPZ (1998)...................................143

12

13

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE

TITLE

PAGE

Table 2.1: Partial List of Dam Failure and Main Reasons ......................................................................29 Table 3.2: 5-Day Depth Area Curve/Table for 1986 Storm in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia November 1986..........................................................45 Table 3.3: 5-Day Depth Area Curve/Table for 1986 Storm in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia November 1986..........................................................45 Table 3.4: Coastal and Inland PMP (Short- and Long-Duration) adopted by SMHB.........................55 Table 3.5: Recorded Rainfall (NAHRIM 2008).....58 Table 3.6: Comparison of PMP of Coastal and Inland PMP Values...................................................61 Table 3.7: Coastal and Inland PMPs (LongDuration) adopted by SMHB...................................63 Table 3.8: World Highest Precipitation..................64 Table 3.9: Temporal Storm Pattern: Fraction .....71 Table 3.10: Temporal Storm Pattern: Inland PMPs for various Durations ..............................................72 Table 3.11: Temporal Storm Pattern: Fraction.....73 Table 3.12: Creager Type Curve: Catchment Area Versus Peak PMPs/PMFs For Various Dams in Malaysia.....................................................................90 Table 4.13: Creager Type Curve: Catchment Area Versus Peak PMPs/PMFs For Various Dams in Malaysia...................................................................101

14 Table 4.14: Results of PMP/PMF Reservoir

Routing: 1- to 120-hour Duration.........................102

15

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE

TITLE

PAGE

Figure 1.1: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 1/5.......................................................23 Figure 1.2: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 2/5.......................................................23 Figure 1.3: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 3/5 (source: www.syabas.com.my)...24 Figure 1.4: Dams : Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 4/5..............................24 Figure 1.5: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 5/5.......................................................25 Figure 1.6: Morning Glory or Bell mouth Spillway of Langat dam...........................................................26 Figure 2.7: PMP/PMF Routing and Reservoir Routing Flow Diagram in Dam Safety Assessment Undertaking (source: www.noaa.gov).....................32 Figure 3.8: 1-Day Depth Duration Area DAD Curve for Storms in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia after maximization and transposition..............................43 Figure 3.9: 5-Day Depth Area Curve for 1986 Storm in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia (November 1986 27th November to 1st December 1986, near Kuala Terengganu )...............................44 Figure 3.10: 5-Day Depth Area Curve for 1986 Storm in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia..............45 Figure 3.11: Selangor PMP: 1-day (Desa, Noriah, and Rakhecha, 2001).................................................52

16 Figure 3.12: Johor PMP: 1-day (Desa And Rakhecha, 2007)........................................................53 Figure 3.13: World Highest Precipitation: Depth Vs Duration.....................................................................65 Figure 3.14: Peninsular Malaysia PMP: 1-day (Al Mamun and Hashim, 2004; originally published in NWRS (2000))............................................................67 Figure 3.15: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 3 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)............................................74 Figure 3.16: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 6 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)............................................74 Figure 3.17: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 12 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)............................................75 Figure 3.18: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 24 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)............................................75 Figure 3.19: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 72 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)............................................76 Figure 3.20: Temporal Storm Pattern: Bell Shape Curve 3-, 12-, and 24- Hour.....................................76 Figure 3.21 Areal Reduction Factor: ARF (NWS, USA)...........................................................................77 Figure 3.22: Representation of sub catchment in RORB model..............................................................84 Figure 3.23: Regionalized k-catchment area relationship................................................................87 Figure 3.24: PMF-Catchment Area Creager Curve: Malaysia Dam Inflows..............................................89 Figure 3.25: Discharge Hydrograph Routing Effects .....................................................................................92 Figure 3.26: Reservoir Storage Routing Indicator 96 Figure 4.27: PMP/PMF Catchment Routing: 1- to 120-hour.....................................................................99 Figure 4.28: Creager Type Catchment Area-PMF Relationship.............................................................100

17 Figure 4.29: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: Figure 4.30: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: Figure 4.31: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 1 3 6

hour duration..........................................................103 hour duration..........................................................104 hour duration..........................................................105 Figure 4.32: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 12 hour duration..........................................................106 Figure 4.33: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 24 hour duration..........................................................107 Figure 4.34: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 48 hour duration..........................................................108 Figure 4.35: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 72 hour duration..........................................................109 Figure 4.36: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 120 hour duration..........................................................110

18

LIST OF SYMBOLS / ABBREVIATIONS

Xt Sn Xm Km A I Q S S1 S2 m k

Rainfall for return period t, mm Standard deviation of a maximum annual series PMP values for any duration, mm Frequency factor attributed to Hershfield, normally 15 is adopted catchment area, km2 Inflow, m3/s Outflow/ discharge, m3/s Storage, m3 Storage in the reservoir at time step number t, m3 storage in the reservoir at time step number t + 1, m3 Fitted parameter RORB calibrated parameter, ND

BCM CA DAD ECL FSL HTC ICUH IDF JPS MMS MSMA MCM NWRS

Billion Cubic Meter Catchment area, km2 Depth Area Duration Embankment Crest Level, m Full Service Level, m Humid Tropic Centre International Conference of Urban Hydrology inflow design flood Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran Modular Modelling System Manual Saliran Mesra Alam Million Cubic Meter National Water Resources Strategy

19 NWS ODEs PMF SDF SDW ABM/BOM ACE ARF B&P National Weather Service Ordinary Differentia Equations Probable maximum flood Spillway design flood Serangoon Sewage Disposal Work Australia Bureau of Meteorology area capacity elevation Areal Reduction Factor Binnie and Partners

20

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

Background

A dam is defined as an artificial barrier together with appurtenant works constructed for the purpose of holding water or any other liquid material. Dam is normally located in the upper part/portion of a watershed that draining waters to the outlet of interest. It blocks almost the entire width of the river cross section by placing a monolithic and heavy man-made structure at this site. They can be built from many different materials, including earth, rock, tailings from mining or milling, concrete, masonry, steel, timber, miscellaneous materials (such as plastic or rubber) and any combination of these materials. In Malaysia, the most common type of dam are embankment earth fill dam, their construction is principally from required excavation using the available materials from the construction. Earth fill dams typically have a water-impermeable clay core, and a water cut-off wall from their base to bedrock to prevent underground seepage. During construction, the stream or river will be diverted either through the dam-site by means of a conduit, or around it by means of a tunnel. Normally a earth fill dam will built with some supplementary structures as spillways for discharging water from behind the dam. If sufficient spillway capacity is not provided, an earth fill dam may be damaged or even destroyed by the erosive water flowing over its crest. Unless special precautions are taken, such dams are also subject to serious damage or even failure, due to water seepage.

21 A dam/reservoir can serves many beneficial purposes such as providing water for Irrigation, Hydro-power, Water-supply, Flood Control, Navigation, Fishing and Recreation. Dams may be built to meet the one of the above purposes or they may be constructed fulfilling more than one. For dam that serves more than one purpose is called Multipurpose Dam. Even through dams and reservoirs serve a number of different functions, but most of the dams in Malaysia are use for water supply purpose. For a water supply purpose dam, in normal day, water will stored in reservoir until the time when water supply is needed, the reservoir operator will releases waters through series of outlets/valves to the downstream for augmenting low flow regime in the river. The released waters are then diverted for beneficial uses further downstream. The reservoir schemes are operated based on three modes of operation, they are namely, (1) direct supply, (2) regulating reservoir, and (3) pump storage scheme. Another major use of dams is power generation as hydroelectric. Hydropower development contributes roughly 10% of the global energy sector. It is dubbed mostly as renewable and yet cleans and low carbon emission technology with non consumptive usage of precious water resources. There are three (3) types of reservoir operations for power generation, namely, (1) run-of-river, (2) reservoir storage, and (3) peaking power mode of operation. Virtually no or minimum storage created by the low level/elevation intake structure is required for run-of-river type of power production. The energy is only attributed to the magnitude of runoff that passing through the turbine chamber at the intake. A low weir or head intake is sufficed for this type of simple configuration. To increase the head in the power equation, the waters could be diverted further downstream to the power or turbine house. This type of arrangement is suitable for steep topography and mountainous terrain. Similar to water supply with option of reservoir storage facility, the flow fluctuation is moderated by the storage reservoir at the upper catchment of a watershed. Not only excess waters during high flow can be reserved for latter days

22 power generation but it is also providing adequate hydraulic head for the same purpose.

Description of the Project

The Sungai Langat drains a catchment of some 1,240 km 2 at the stream flow gauging station at Dengkil (downstream of its confluence with the Sungai Semenyih) and around 1,815 km2 at the mouth of the estuary. The Sg. Langat Basin forms the southern boundary of the State of Selangor and partially intrudes into the neighbouring State of Negeri Sembilan. The upper catchment comprises generally rugged mountain terrain with multiple land use classification. The lower catchment of the Sungai Langat basin is low lying, swampy land with some disused mining land. The Langat dam was one of the first major water supply reservoir schemes in the state of Selangor and subsequently Kuala Lumpur when the capital was upgraded to federal territory status. The dam was commissioned in 1979 and in the vicinity on another tributary of Sungai Langat, the Semenyih dam in 1984 located in the upper reaches of the catchments, they serve as regulating reservoirs to augment flows at the intakes of the downstream treatment works during periods of low flow. Their primary purpose is therefore water supply. An augmentation scheme for the Sg. Semenyih was recently undertaken to provide an additional raw water supply (70 Mld) at the existing Semenyih WTP from a series of nearby abandoned mining ponds. The scheme is mainly for emergency use, but can also augment low flows at the Semenyih WTP. To improve operating flexibility of the two major WTPs in the basin, that is Langat Mile 10 and Semenyih WTPs, an interconnected raw water pumping transfer from the Sg. Semenyih to the Sungai Lui , an upstream tributary of the Sungai Langat, was also constructed. Figures 1.3 to 1.7 shows the location, birdeye view and schematic of the dam body.

23

Figure 1.1: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 1/5 Location Map [Source: Lembaga Urusan Air Sungai Selangor (LUAS)]

Figure 1.2: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 2/5 Contour map

24

Figure 1.3: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 3/5 (source: www.syabas.com.my)

Figure 1.4: Dams : Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 4/5 Schematic diagram of Langat Dam (Source: www.syabas.com.my )

25

Figure 1.5: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 5/5 Google earth map

Langat dam/reservoir (CA= 41 km2) is located in the upper catchment of the Sg. Langat basin at river mile 24. The reservoir drains a catchment area of about 41 km2 on the eastern slopes of the central mountain range. The reliable yield based on conjunctive operation of the reservoir and intake downstream at Mile 10 (with a combined catchment area of 295 km2) was estimated in the design report (Binnie dan Rakan; 1976) to be 387 Mld. This allowed for a compensation release at the Mile 10 intake of 90 Mld. The gross reservoir storage is 35.4 million m3, of which 1.3 million m3 is allocated to dead storage. The dam is about 61 m high with its full supply level (FSL) at +221.0 m msl. The surcharge volume above +221.0 m msl is ample with the dam embankment crest level (ECL) at +223.8 m msl.

26 The dam is equipped with outflow structures, such as water outflow pipe by drawing water at different elevation of the intake tower. The sluicing valve is operated by Larnar butterfly valve. The outlet serves to releases water from the reservoir in time of need to augment low flow at the Mile 10 water supply intake. The spillway is located on the left bank of the dam abutment with a fairly large diameter bell mouth or morning glory spillway, i.e. 27.4 m in diameter. During an extreme meteorological event, the torrential flow of PMP/PMF magnitude will be evacuated via the bell mouth spillway so that the danger of dam overtopping is avoided at all cost. PMP/PMF convention is therefore used to design the spillway capacity. The morning glory or bell mouth spillway of Langat dam is shown in Figure 1.8.

Figure 1.6: Morning Glory or Bell mouth Spillway of Langat dam ( Source: self taken pictures )

27 3 Objectives

The objectives of this study are: a) Assessment of the hydrological safety of existing Langat reservoir/dam in the light of a meteorological extremity, such as occurrence of a PMP/PMF event. b) Recommendation of appropriate and cost effective remedial and mitigation measures, if any, in case of inadequacy in the hydrological infrastructure assessment carried as per objective (a). It is utmost important to ensure the dam/reservoir structure, especially earthfill and rockfill type could withstand the onslaught of torrential storm which in a way results in exceptionally high inflows into the reservoir water body.

28

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

Problem Statement

Dam safety is a vital important issue and must be kept in focus at all times as any failure of dam can lead to high hazard potential. Dam safety must be given high priority during the process while planning, design, construction, operation and even during maintenance. Safety assessment of the dam/reservoir structures are one of post construction operation and maintenance (O&M) undertaking that are being carried out regularly to ensure that the reservoir structure are always functioning well. Although dams are constructed according to careful survey, design, and construction stages, there are still many cases of serious dam accidents have occurred in the world. Therefore safety assessments during the post construction operation and maintenance are very important. Dam safety assessments that carried out according to the O&M protocol are focus on few issues including natural catastrophes such as earthquake event, heavy precipitation events that lead to eventual high floods, evidences of animal burrowing of the dam/reservoir structure, in the case of earth and rock fill dam structures, etc. An inspection program seeks to identify the current status of the dam/reservoir structures in light of calamity that might impair the structural integrity of the structure itself. An inspection checklist gives the full safe/health status to the dam/reservoir scheme for continuous operation in many years to come until the next

29 due inspection, which in the Malaysias Dam Inspection Guideline, calls for 5-year interval for any major dam structures. Dam failures can happened due to varies factors such as overtopping which caused by water spilling over the top of a dam, structural failure of materials used in dam construction, cracking caused by movements like the natural settling of a dam, internal erosion and also inadequate maintenance after built. The results of the dam failure could be far reaching and jeopardizing the structural integrity of the dam/reservoir. Table 2.1 shows some dam failure cases and the main reasons of failure. Table 2.1: Partial List of Dam Failure and Main Reasons

Source : Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards and Proactive Planning Overtopping is the most common reason causing dam failure among the others and often led to serious hazard. Overtopping can occur when the water level in the reservoir rises rapidly and most of the time without prior and/or even with a short time warning. The examples are flash floods, heavy storm/rainfall, a landslide occurs in the upper catchment of the dam/reservoir that send torrential water wave toward the dam embankment at the downstream. Overtopping can also happen when the

30 spillway is too small or becomes blocked. If the amount of water coming into the reservoir is greater than the amount that the spillway was designed for, or if the spillway becomes blocked, the floodwater might start to overtop the dam crest. Failure of dam by overtopping show up that the importance to have an accurate assessment of their safety feature such as emergency action can be planned and implemented ahead of probable catastrophic events. One of these measures is the hydrological inspection and evaluation that plays a role in the overall inspection program to estimate the overtopping probability of the dam during PMP(probable precipitation) scenario. Amongst the dam structural appurtenances, spillway capacity is one of the most significant factors that affect the ability of a dam to pass the maximum flood. The performance of a spillway on the onset is crucial to the dam/reservoir structure itself. Overtopping over the dam crest occurs if the reservoir cannot adequately and sufficiently attenuate the inflows into the reservoir in case of an extreme PMP/PMF event. Therefore, assessment and appraisal are carried out on the existing spillway capacity in light of a PMP/PMF event during the hydrological inspection. Overtopping criteria is rather important if the dam is of embankment fill type, such as conventional earthfill and rockfill dams (not so extent, if the dam structure is concrete buttress dam). Potential risk of damages, mainly erosion of the downstream face of the dam is higher than ever if the torrential inflows are allowed to over spill the crest. The high velocity flow, in the magnitude from 15 to 30 m/s could induce cavitation (implosive bubble formation) on the downstream surface of the embankment dam. This negative pressure is created as a result of high velocity, according to Bernoulli equation, induces suction forces that might rip apart or erode the surface of the dam. With time, the dam structure could be rendered unsafe and running into the risk of collapse. A vivid tunnel spillway accident during high flows in Glenn Canyon dam in 1986 has demonstrated the vulnerability of the spillway against the onslaught of cavitation as the flood waters pass through it at an exceptionally high velocity.

31 The design parameter, PMPs used in the earlier design of dam/reservoir structures are subjects of review during each inspection interval. Unfortunately, during the earlier design of the dam/reservoir structure, the hydrological information at the dam/reservoir sites or in the vicinity might not be adequate, thus prevented a thorough and comprehensive assessment at the time of detail design stage. This is especially true for the dam/reservoir structures that were been designed and built in the earlier 1950s where the hydrometric collection and sampling program are generally lacking and inadequate at the earlier years of Independence. As such it is a pressing need for a comprehensive assessment of the hydrological safety criteria of the dam/reservoir structures in the light of climatological/meteorological extremities. An illustrative example of the inadequacy of the hydrological assessment is the PMPs that are adopted in the dam/reservoir design. The PMPs are mostly inconsistent as they are subjects to the knowledge and experiences accumulated by individual designer, i.e. consulting engineers/specialists experiences. Even for the same dam, most if not all of the time, the PMPs are reported and derived differently by different engineering specialists. In summary, the hydrological assessment of the dam safety is an essential part of the dam inspection program, in light of a new and updated set of PMP using concurrent and latest observed hydrological information. It is therefore utmost important to carry out this special task of the hydrological investigation.

32 2 Tasks and Assignments

Tasks to fulfill the objectives of this Study are as follows: Derivation of PMPs by reviewing various studies and works that were carried out earlier in Malaysia, notably, major flood mitigation studies carried out in Kelantan (SSP/SMHB, 1997), Interstate Raw Water Transfer from Pahang to Selangor (NK/SMHB, 2000), SMHB/RB/JPZ (NWRS, 2000), NAHRIM (2008) and other scholastic researches/reports by various institutions of higher learning in Malaysia. PMP to PMF routing using one of the acceptable PMP/PMF rainfall runoff routing techniques, i.e. a modified version of synthetic unit hydrograph approach of HP 11 (Taylor and Toh, 1976), and Conventional reservoir (modified Puls) routing procedure to estimate the flood rise during a PMP/PMF event. The reservoir helps to moderate the humongous inflows by attenuating the peak discharge of an inflow hydrograph. Figure 2.1 shows the step-by-step approach in assessing hydrological aspect of dam safety program.

Figure 2.7: PMP/PMF Routing and Reservoir Routing Flow Diagram in Dam Safety Assessment Undertaking (source: www.noaa.gov)

33

CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY

Methodology of Hydrological Dam Safety Assessment

For this project report, the methodology that used for assessing the hydrological dam safety primarily focuses on the review of the spillway capacity and dam overtopping likelihood. The assessment basically involved few steps which are: 1. Derivation of PMPs at the project/study site, 2. Translation of PMPs to PMFs/SDFs using a catchment rainfall runoff or response function model and 3. A conventional reservoir routing technique to estimate the flood rise over the dams full supply level (FSL). The derivation of PMPs in this study is carried out mostly by reviewing the available past studies and findings in Malaysia. The prevailing PMP convention is duly reviewed and adopted as appropriate. Catchment response and convolution lumped parameter model is used to translate PMPs to PMFs for various durations. Finally, the derived PMFs are then appropriately routed through a lumped parameter reservoir. The final results of this exercise/undertaking are to ensure that the dam is not overtopped passing its embankment crest level (ECL).

34 Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), by definition, according to WMO (1986, 2009) is the greatest depth (amount) of precipitation, for a given storm duration, that is theoretically possible for a particular area and geographic location. PMP is generally derived based on mostly observed maximum rainfall records with the provision of storm maximization and transposition technique in tandem. Many floods calculation that are typically evaluated in dam engineering include frequency based storms (e.g. 2-year or average flow through a 500-year or higher flood) and the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), which is developed based mostly on the occurrence of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Spillway Design Flood (SDF) or Inflow Design Flood (IDF) is another term that is important in dam/reservoir design. Dams/reservoir structures are mainly designed or required to safely pass the typically Spillway Design Flood (SDF) or Inflow Design Flood (IDF). In this regard, it is often used interchangeably with the term PMF. The magnitude of this type of extreme flows typically range from the 100-year flood in the past to the contemporary adoption of PMF. The selection of a SDF/IDF/PMF is normally dependent on the classification of hazard category of the dam structure and the potential for loss of life or property damage that would result from a dam failure during a given magnitude of flood. In the past, without or due to limited knowledge and understanding on the hydrological aspect of dam/reservoir design, the dams are designed based mostly on the observed floods and past empirical experiences. With the current design philosophy after acquiring many design experiences worldwide, PMFs are mostly selected for the purpose of dam/reservoir structure design to ensure the safety of the downstream riparian users in time of dam breach or failure. Hydrologic analysis for estimating the SDF/IDF/PMF for dams includes:

Delineating the watershed or drainage boundary contributing to the dam Developing theoretical precipitation amounts and distribution over the storm duration Estimating infiltration to compute runoff volume Computing runoff distribution based upon a synthetic hydrograph theory

35

Routing of the inflow through the impounding water body (lake, reservoir, etc.)

In addition to estimating the SDF/IDF/PMF, hydrology for dam projects could include evaluation of flood protection provided by the structure. Also, many dams provide water supply and the hydrologic analysis for these structures could extend to drought hydrology for sizing reservoirs and defining releases to address environmental concerns. The tasks of hydrologic analysis to be carried out in the dam safety assessment can range from simplified equations and methods to relatively complex computer/mathematical models, including commonly used models developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). Currently, these computer models are being interfacing with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This has also helped engineers and scientists to develop watershed parameters more quickly and accurately. A thorough knowledge of hydrologic analysis for dams/reservoir should be developed as well as to understand of the hydrologic cycle and flood events and their interactions and also should be proficient in reading and interpreting topographic maps and conversant in computer models. In addition, an understanding of working GIS knowledge is now considered an essential part of dam assessment assignment. And therefore, a working knowledge of the GIS system is also highly recommended.

36 2 Pmp Review and Study

PMP review and study is one of the main task in this report, this segment of the study aims to summarize the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) convention used in the dam/reservoir design in Malaysia. These conventions were mostly adopted by local dam engineering specialists in their respective undertakings in order to design a sustainable dam/reservoir. To design a sustainable dam/reservoir and ensure the safety of the downstream community of a dam/reservoir, dams are always designed based on probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) that can possibly occur during the design life of a reservoir/dam scheme. PMP data is utmost important especially while derivation of the Spillway Design Flood (SDF). The review and assessment of PMPs is imperative in light with the proliferation of reservoir and dam development activities in Malaysia. Besides, as nowadays there are a lots of telemetric stations were installed at various strategic locations along the river, therefore there is ample long-term hydrometric information (i.e. rainfall) is made available. This important and vast database of records could be of use for a thorough PMP assessment which can greatly improve the accuracy of the result obtained. The understanding of the PMPs is vital and critical to the development of a reservoir/dam scheme. This undertaking in general, is suitable for review and assessment of the PMPs for flood mitigation feasibility study.

37 2.1 Rationale of PMP The importance of PMP/PMF in dam/reservoir project is its vast and broad implication to the public safety and disaster prevention downstream of a major water retaining and regulating structure, such as reservoirs etc. These gigantic structures should be able to withstand in terms of structural integrity, the torrential forces of extreme storm event so that disastrous failure such as dam breaching, especially if it is located in the upland or headwater region or catchment of the populated town or urban habitat could be avoided. The assessment of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is important in order to derivate the hydrological calculations and hydrological estimation, for example Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), which in turn is used to design the reservoir outflow structures, such as spillways, bottom outlets etc. The PMFs derived from the PMPs is the design flood inflow into the reservoirs where no risk of failure of dam structure should be allowed to occur. PMP data within a region is possible to obtain or estimated through meteorological methods and historical records. The historical observed and sampled data consists of point precipitation amounts measured at rain gages throughout the region being studied, or a region with very similar meteorological and topographical characteristics. Review and appraisal of the past PMPs segmental studies of various dam/reservoir designers in Malaysia is crucial to derive the design parameters for subsequent engineering undertaking. Specifically, methodologies adopted by one of the major dam designers in Malaysia, SMHB (formerly Binnie & Partners, B&P, UK). The consulting form have been active and had have carried out major consultancy works in dam and reservoir design and supervision in Malaysia for over the past 40 years. The consultant is also the principal engineering consultant for Semenyih dam in the earlier 1980s.

38 As mentioned previously, the PMP derivation is needed for calculation of PMF where both the structural safety and integrity of the dam structure as well as the impact of the torrential flood flows on the safety and hazard mitigation the downstream riparian users, i.e. populated cities or suburban centres. It is the intention that the extreme flood flow could safely pass the major structures, spillway and/or other emergency outlet structures, without damaging impact on their structural integrity in the event of an extreme event or occurrence of PMP magnitude. In Malaysia, the PMP values adopted by specialist dam designer engineering consultant, SMHB and Binnie and Partners (B&P) group (SMHB/B&P) have been the primary sources and references for other dam and reservoir designers as well. Besides methodology espoused by SMHB/B&P, there are a few further major undertakings on PMP estimation since 1990, i.e. in the Pahang Selangor Water Transfer project (NK/SMHB, 2000), National Water Resources Study (SMHB/RB/JPZ, 2000), and an ongoing review undertaken by NAHRIM (2008). This review primarily addresses on the issues and techniques of PMP derivation in Peninsular Malaysia and with no coverage or citation for the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah. In the context of this report, comparison and review are then made as appropriate with respect to the Semenyih reservoir in the original PMP values for detailed reservoir design. In the context of this study, the terminology, PMP is defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO 332, 1986 and WMO 1045, 2009) as the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration meteorologically possible for a given basin of a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term trends. Utility of the PMP to generate the PMF is the industrial standard for dam design worldwide.

39 The development of PMPs for a given basin or catchment can be complicated, lest time consuming, and requires the expertise input of professional hydro-meteorologists. However at the operational level, as recommended by WMO 332 and 1045 (1986; 2009) guideline, PMPs can be estimated by both (a) hydrometeorological and (b) statistical approaches. The latter is a useful mean for making quick and ballpark estimates and where other pertinent and comprehensive meteorological data, such as dew point, and wind records, are lacking to warrant a sophisticated and thorough a hydrometeorological type of analysis. Other than derivation of PMPs based on the prevailing WMO 332 and 1045 (1986; 2009) manual/guideline, some dam/reservoir projects in Malaysia also adopted the Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) on both short and long duration PMP derivation (Bulletin 53; ABM, 2003). The techniques recommended the estimation of PMPs based on the climatologic homogeneous zones using several derived depth area duration (DAD) curves while taking into consideration of the topographic and geographic features. These techniques are sometimes adopted by Malaysias engineering consultants based on the premise that the derived PMPs from Australia database and condition could be transposed to humid tropics region, such as Malaysia as well. As such PMPs estimates espoused by ABM are generally higher than other techniques adopted in Malaysia. As mentioned earlier, two (2) general techniques as described in WMO 332 (1986) are currently being used in Malaysia for derivation of PMPs for reservoir/dam projects. They are Hydrometeorological approach by storm maximization and transposition Hershfield and its variants (Desa et al, 2001; Desa and Rekhecha, 2007); Statistical/frequency point analysis approach; mainly for checking and verification purpose.

40

Bulletin 53 (1996, 2003 new addendum) of Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) is also been used by some dam designers mainly on PMPs derivation and checking and confirmation. Brief introduction on these two techniques are presented as follows:

3.2.1.1 Hydrometeorological Approach The basis of the PMP derivation using the hydrometeorological approach is mostly based on vast database of historical observed records of maximum rainfall/precipitation in a specific region. For example, the derivation of PMPs for Malaysia may not only be based on observed rainfall records in Malaysia per se, but might also take into consideration regional occurrences of extreme storm events such as in Indonesia, Thailand or Singapore etc. Alternatively, as mentioned earlier for dam engineering projects in Malaysia, the PMP procedures developed by the Australias Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), which are originally derived based on exclusively observed records in Australia, are being adopted by Malaysian Designers from time to time. The prerequisite of a PMP study using hydrometeorological approach is the availability of storm records for various durations and other meteorological measurements, such as relative humidity, wind direction, etc. these information in fact is not available in most of the countries due to expensive outlay and investment in acquisition of such records. The first methodological step of the procedure is to extract the highest rainfall records from the database. These records could be acquired with a modest fee from the JPS TIDEDA database system and MMS principal rainfall station records. Other organizations such as large scale oil palm and rubber estate and plantation do

41 have their own rainfall monitoring and sampling programs in place. Their database might be traced back to the earlier years of burgeoning plantation activities. However, the information is rather difficult to come by on time. Most of the hydrological assessments carried out in Malaysia lest along the organized PMP/PMF studies do not have the privilege of acquiring such database from various private entities. In terms of observed rainfall records, the eastern coastal regions of the peninsula (Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and Eastern Johor) are aggravated by the annual Northeast Monsoon (from November and extending to January next year). The rainfall records in this region therefore always provide a good and reliable source of highest rainfall records for meaningful PMP analysis. The brief procedure of PMP derivation at the operational level is presented in the following subsection. The maximum rainfall records for durations starting from 1 day to 5 days are tabulated and plotted spatially on a regional map. Contours/isohyet or equal magnitude of rainfall storm depth are then delineated as appropriate. Each associated influential areas are attributed to a particular rain storm depth are then duly prepared. This type of plot is termed as PMP depth-area duration curves (DAD). Normally, depth area curve for duration of more than 1-day could be easily available in Malaysia as majority of rainfall stations are of non-recording type where the rainfall depths are measured within a day, i.e. gauging and reading manually at 8.00 am daily. Three (3) critical processes are required before the derived PMPs could be adopted. Envelopment of depth area duration curves: to encompass the highest value Maximization of precipitable water by determining the state of saturation of the atmospheric waters at the project site: probable extreme meteorological condition Transposition of the derived PMPs to project site by ratios of mean annual rainfall, maximum rainfall depths for the same duration/periods, etc,

42 Envelopment or the maximization process is then carried out manually and literally to envelop a highest single curve that encompasses all possible highest values for that specific duration. An example of envelopment is shown in Figure 3.1 for 1-day rainfall records in the east coast of Peninsula Malaysia (courtesy of NK/SMHB [2000] Study). On the other hand, Figure 3.2 and figure 3.3 shows the plot of rainfall deptharea map for 5-day total maximum observed rainfall for some 24 recording and nonrecording type of rainfall stations in the vicinity of Kuala Terengganu during the months of November to early December in 1986. The enveloping catchment areas are then delineated for each rainfall depth interval in the form of depth-area table as shown in Tables 3.2 and 3.3. Another key step in the derivation of PMP is to maximize the storm of the individual duration by a factor that relies on both (a) the maximum dew point temperature and (b) elevation of the project site relative to the mean seal level (MSL). The former factor generally reflects the increase in precipitable water as a result of higher dew point temperature. Coefficients ranging from 1.5 to 3.0 are not uncommon and they are then factored to the derived PMP value for specific duration. The maximum 24 hour average dew point temperature is normally adopted to represent the maximum precipitable water scenario. Transposition is also an essential step is to be taken into consideration by transposing the PMP from a region where they are being derived to the project sites of interest which is always located some distances landward in Malaysia where most of the dams are located.

43

24 hr PMP Rainfall 800 700 600 500 Rainfall (mm) 400 300 200 100 0 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Area (km2)
Figure 3.8: 1-Day Depth Duration Area DAD Curve for Storms in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia after maximization and transposition Source: NK/SMHB, 2000

1967 1971 1981 1983

1970 1972 1982 1986

44

Figure 3.9: 5-Day Depth Area Curve for 1986 Storm in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia (November 1986 27th November to 1st December 1986, near Kuala Terengganu ) Source: SMHB/SSP, 1999, Sg. Kelantan Flood Mitigation

45

Figure 3.10: 5-Day Depth Area Curve for 1986 Storm in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia

Table 3.2: 5-Day Depth Area Curve/Table for 1986 Storm in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia November 1986
Station No 5031062 5033069 5102040 5130065 5230041 5230042 5232065 5518035 4923001 4516031 4620045 5322044 5328044 5320038 5520001 5522047 4734079 5221047 5029034 5824080 5824079 4930038 5524002 5722057 Total 5-day Rainfall mm 1408 898 1014 315 849 1149 1224 377 341 35 91 1041 1234 446 203 672 1037 1344 1376 1385 877 1372 1100 743

Source: SMHB/SSP, 1999 Sg. Kelantan Flood Mitigation Table 3.3: 5-Day Depth Area Curve/Table for 1986 Storm in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia November 1986

46 27th November to 1st December 1986, near Kuala Terengganu

Rainfall depth mm 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 780 Rainfall mm 1425 1363 1319 1253 1179 1145 1125 Next rainfall mm 1450 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 Time Area km2 202 1146 1879 3084 4871 5711 6104 Surface area km2 202 1146 1879 3084 4871 5711 6104 24 hour 33 33% 470 450 435 413 389 378 371 Difference in area km2 202 944 733 1205 1787 840 393 48 hour 20 53% 755 723 699 664 625 607 596 Rainfall volume MCM 288 1274 916 1386 1876 798 330 72 hour 17 70% 998 954 923 877 825 801 788 Accumulated volume MCM 288 1562 2479 3864 5741 6539 6869 96 hour 17 87% 1240 1186 1148 1090 1025 996 979 Average rainfall mm 1425 1363 1319 1253 1179 1145 1125 120 hour 13 100% 1425 1363 1319 1253 1179 1145 1125

Generally the transposition of a storm from the east coastal regions of Peninsular Malaysia will result in reduction in precipitation if it traverses across over a topographic barrier such as at the main range of the Peninsular Malaysia, i.e. Banjaran Titiwangsa, which is located in the middle of peninsula. A barrier of such altitude normally blocks the storm surge during prevailing northeastern monsoon but on occasion, the monsoonal torrents do spill over to the west coast. Events on 1971 Kuala Lumpur flood and some major flooding events in the northern states of Kedah and Perlis were the remnant of the monsoon during the months from October to January next year. For this reason, to transpose maximum rainfall to the west coastal region of Peninsula Malaysia is normally not adopted in most of the dam design in the west coastal region. However it is rather common to use PMPs of the east coastal region as a check and reference. A review of the available topographic mapping generally would indicate the extent and influences of the topographic feature and land form pertaining to the transposition of PMPs. Sometimes a coefficient essentially based on the ratio of the elevation between project sites and the region where PMPs have been derived could then be adjusted as deemed necessary.

47

Another technique noteworthy of comparison is the long-term or event based maximum storm records of the region where PMPs have been derived and the project sites, if available. It is however of high certainty that the transposition of PMPs derived in the coastal region to project sites inland without adjustment based on topographic and observed maximum rainfall depth is unduly conservative. The derivation of the hydrometerological approach depends strongly on the availability of the rainstorm records. For a longer duration of more than 24 hour or 1 day, records are mostly available in Malaysia. However for less than 24 hour duration, observed records are generally lacking due to expensive capital as well as operating costs of acquiring recording type of rainfall depth. Due to scarcity of the short duration rainfall records, it is sometimes reasonable to adopt short duration PMP procedure published by ABM in Australia. Several dam (outlet structures and spillways) designs in Malaysia have been based on this premise and principle of PMP transposition from Australia to Malaysia, i.e. Kenyir, Pergau, Kelinchi, Kinta, Ahning, Prang Besar (Putrajaya), Batu Hampar, Bengoh, Jelai, and dam design projects mostly associated with Australian consultants.

3.2.1.2 Hershfield Technique

48

The procedure by Hershfield (WMO, 1986; 2009) is a statistically based methodology relying on the theoretical background of frequency or probability analysis of occurrence or non-occurrence of events of specific level of severity. It resembles a general frequency factor equation (Chow et al., 1988) as shown below.

X t = Xn + KS n X t = rainfall for return period t Xn = mean of a maximum annual series Sn = standard deviation of a maximum annual series K = normalized frequency factor
The frequency factor varies with different type of probability distribution commonly used in the hydrologic frequency analysis. Similarly, in the Hershfield analogy, if the maximum observed rainfall ( and the frequency factor ( K m ) are substituted for frequency factor type of equation is formed. Both and
Km Xt Xm

and K respectively, then a

Xn

factors represent the arithmetical mean and the number

of standard deviations deviated from the sample or annual maximum series respectively. Hershfield found out that
Km

varies depending on the number of

extreme data that could be obtained from the sample and to a certain extent the magnitude of maximum rain storm recorded by the station. Hershfield recommended a frequency factor of 15 as the universal maximum value to be adopted after analyzing thoroughly a vast maximum rainfall records database worldwide. Since its advent in the earlier 1960s, subsequent revisions, modifications, and improvements have also been carried out (Koutsoyiannis, 1999), and locally in Malaysia, Desa and Rakhecha (2007, 2009). The commonly adopted frequency factor originally proposed by Hershfield is found to be overly conservative and modification should be made to suit local climatic and meteorological variability. Therefore, some of these adjustments made in subsequent studies take

49 into account on the data quantity, such as the length of the records, maximum records rainfall, etc. APPENDIX A shows the adjustment factors as proposed in WMO 332 and 1045 (1986, 2009). The Hershfield form of the PMP equation is presented as follows:

X m = X m + K m Sn X m = PMP values for any duration (mm) X m = Mean or first moment of annual maxima series (sample) (mm) K m = Frequency factor attributed to Hershfield, normally 15 is adopted (ND) S n = Standard deviation or second moment of annual maxima series (sample) (mm)
Xn

ADJUSTMENT OF

AND

Sn

FOR MAXIMUM OBSERVED EVENT

Outliers are often found to have occurred at some time during much shorter period of record, say, 30 years. They may have an appreciable effect on the mean and standard deviation of the annual maximum series. However, the magnitude of this effect is less prominent for long records as compared to short records. In short, PMP varies with the presence of outliers. Hershfield (WMO, 1986, 2009) recommended that adjustments for both PMPs.
Xn

and

Sn

with lengths of annual maximum series. These

factors could be referred in WMO 332 (1986, 2009) publication on estimation of

50 DATA REQUIREMENT FOR HERSHFIELD TYPE PMP Data requirement for Hershdield type of PMP estimation procedure is simple and straightforward. First of all, long-term annual maxima series for various durations are obtained from digital hydrometric library. In Malaysia they are acquired mostly from JPS TIDEDA system database using PEXTREME/PMOVE built-in routine. The short duration annual maxima series (arbitrarily defined as less than 24 hour storm duration) could also be extracted from these long-term database of automatic (or known as recording) rainfall stations where the rainfall depth register is of small time step resolution. On the other hand, long duration series (i.e. equal or greater than 1 day) are obtained mostly from non-recording stations where daily observed rainfall depths of each station are duly recorded daily. DERIVATION OF PMP USING HERSHFIELD PROCEDURE Hershfield procedure is carried out conveniently using an Excel spreadsheet setup. The step-by-step procedure is described as follows: Annual maxima storm series of varying durations, i.e. from 15-minutes to 6day are summarized in a table format;

The mean ( X n ) and standard deviation ( S n ), i.e. first and second moments of the sample of the annual maxima series for each duration are then computed respectively;

The PMPs for each individual duration are then calculated using Hershfield equation (these PMP values are Unadjusted PMPs); The adjusted values of
X n m

and

S n m

are then estimated from Figures 4.2

and 4.3 of WMO 332 (1986) to the mean and standard deviation of the annual maxima series after excluding the maximum observed records in the series; and The PMPs for each individual duration are then repeated using adjusted
X n m

and

S n m

(results as Adjusted PMPs).

51

Due to the tediousness and elaborated data requirement of hydrometeorological approach, sometimes, the Hershfield procedure is carried out (as historical rainfall records are relatively easier to acquire) in most feasibility and preliminary design studies. It is sometimes also been used for cross checking purpose vis--vis other published PMPs of other studies. One of the advantages of the Hershfield procedure, inter alia, is the considerably less time input is needed to derive PMPs vis--vis the hydro-meteorological approach. Above all, it is also easier to understand (as it is a form of probability or frequency analysis commonly used in the statistical science and hydrology, Chow et al, 1988) and is practical and robust. However, a major drawback of this simple approach is its point values of PMP estimation and thus suitable area-reduction factors (ARF) are applicable for adjusting the point values to transpose to various sizes of basin area. Alternatively, various type of regionalization techniques, such as cluster analysis, index rainfall, and geostatistical approach of Kriging, etc. A relatively simpler approach is none other than an areal wide isohyetal PMP maps that could also be produced with adequate point rainfall stations as shown in the contour map for rainfall in the states of Selangor and Johor (see Figures 3.4 and 3.5). For comparison purpose, it is considered adequate and sufficient to provide such a check in line with the good practices of the hydrological design for a sizable project where failure of the engineering structures will have detrimental effects on the downstream riparian users.

52

Figure 3.11: Selangor PMP: 1-day (Desa, Noriah, and Rakhecha, 2001)

53

Figure 3.12: Johor PMP: 1-day (Desa And Rakhecha, 2007)

54 2.2 Adopted PMP Convention by SMHB/B&P

As one of the premier dam designers, SMHB (and its predecessor, Binnie and Partners) generally adopts a uniform set of PMP values derived from their past numerous dam design experiences in Singapore and Malaysia (i.e. Seletar, Upper Pierce, Langat, Semenyih, Terip, Linggiu; Durian Tunggal before 1990; Selangor, Tinggi, , Chereh, Teriang, Jus after 1990). Specifically, three (3) specific reports/studies formed the basis of PMP derivation at that time before 1990. They were (1) SSP/HH (1979), (2) B&P (1980), and (3) SSP/SMEC (1985) for project locations in southern Johor and Singapore. These PMP values have since being adopted for almost all reservoir design projects undertaken by SMHB/B&P. Notable major dam project undertakings were Seletar and Upper Pierce dams in Singapore, Semenyih, Langat, Tinggi, and Selangor dams in Selango, Linggiu and Juasseh dams in Johor, Terip and Teriang dams in Negri Sembilan, Chereh dam in Pahang, Durian Tunggal and Jus dams in Melaka, Gerugu dam in Sarikei, Sarawak, etc. The PMP in the context of SMHB/B&P lexicon is arbitrarily divided into both short- and long- storm duration. By definition, the dividing line is at the 24hour duration. However, there is also exception where 6-hour duration is sometimes used to define the boundary between the short and long durations as being adopted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) in their dam design projects in Malaysia. However it should be borne in mind that the demarcation is simply adopted for convenience by various organizations. The PMP values adopted by SMHB/B&P are further classified into two series, i.e. (1) Coastal and (2) Inland. This purportedly takes into consideration the vast difference in meteorological and geographical factors, as their names implied at both peninsular coastal, comprising of primarily east coastal region and inland,

55 mainly interior part of the Peninsular regions. For short duration PMPs, the values adopted as Coastal PMP are based mostly on the Singapore rainstorm of 1978. After adjustment for an appropriate transposition factor, it is transposed inland (specifically for Semenyih reservoir design project), this series is therefore known as Inland PMP. This series was used in most of the dam design projects undertaken by SMHB/B&P since then, including recent Tinggi and Selangor dams in Selangor, and Teriang dam which is now under construction, in Negri Sembilan. Table below shows both coastal and inland PMPs derived and adopted by SMHB/B&P for duration ranges from 1- to 120-hour. Table 3.4: Coastal and Inland PMP (Short- and Long-Duration) adopted by SMHB Duration (hour) Coastal PMP (mm) Inland PMP (mm) 1211/190.5# 188 3338 300 6440 391 12584 518 24777 692 Long Duration PMP (arbitrarily defined for this review) 481356 908 721593 1067 1202030 1360 # 19.5 mm or 7.5 in is originally quoted but 211mm is back calculated from 188 mm

56 SHORT-DURATION PMP The basis of the PMP derivation for SMHB/B&P was based on the premise of actual measured records of maximum rainfall both in Malaysia and Singapore. Some notable highest rainfall records are presented as below (as quoted from SMHB, 1992). These measured records formed the basis of short duration PMP series for dam/reservoir design (see Table 3.1: Recorded Maximum Rainfall, NAHRIM 2008). Near Kuantan in late December 1926, with the bulk of the rainfall falling between 27th and 31st of December including 631 mm (24.85 inches) within one day at the Jeram Kuantan Estate; In Singapore on 17th July 1941 when in a very intense but relatively short storm 65.6 mm was recorded in 30 minutes, 120 mm in 60 minutes and 147 mm in 2 hours; In Singapore on 9th and 10th December 1969 when 478 mm was recorded in 24 hours; Near Mersing between 29th December and 4th January 1971 when 541 mm occurred in a 24 hour period and a total of 1453 mm (1600 mm and1800 mm are being reported elsewhere) was measured in 120 hours; and In southern Johor and Singapore on 2nd and 3rd of December 1978 when 537 mm was recorded in a 24-hour period at Serangoon Sewage Disposal Works with values been recorded concurrently at two other stations on Singapore. The December 1978 storm in southern Johor and Singapore was primarily selected as basis for short duration PMP derivation because it was the most severe recorded storm in the southern region of the Peninsula Malaysia other than the highest recorded storm in Jeram, Pahang (unfortunately actual water depth was not accurately quantified). These short duration PMPs are derived by maximizing the 24hour rainstorm during 2nd and 3rd December, 1978 in both southern Johor and Singapore. A 24-hour record of rainfall (536.5 mm) was recorded at the Serangoon Sewage Disposal Works (SDW) station. In addition, observed rainfalls of about 533 mm

57 were also recorded concurrently at both Kim Chuan Road Sewerage Works and Sembawang Agricultural Research Station in Singapore. From screening the up-to-date observed records, there are no recent recorded extreme storm events that exceed the derived PMP values to warrant revision or review of the short term duration PMPs. Although in the recent NAHRIM (2008) study highest long-duration observed rainfalls were found in the state of Kelantan and Terenggnau (see Table 3.5). Nevertheless, the highest values were of single station to be rather representative of an areal wide storm event. For convenience, in some design undertakings also adopt in to Australias ABM short duration PMP enveloping curves for humid tropics region (NK/SMHB, 2000). This is presumably based on the premises and assumptions that the observed maximum storm records in Australia could be transposed to regions in South East Asia as well. These values are higher than the SMHBs short duration PMPs.

58 Table 3.5: Recorded Rainfall (NAHRIM 2008)

STORM MAXIMIZATION OF SHORT DURATION STORM The storm depth is commonly maximized based on the ratio/index of maximum precipitable water in the air column to the actual precipitable water during the storm (as a function of maximum and persistent dew point temperature for 12-hour at 1000 mb). Based on an average of the recorded values at Paya Lebar Airport and Changi Airfield/Airport the 24-hour persisting 1000 mb dew point temperature at the beginning of December 1978 storm was 23.8o C. At this dew point temperature the precipitable water in the atmosphere prior to the storm was estimated at 73.5 mm.

59 The period of dew point temperature was searched based on hourly records from 1955 to 1978 presumably from the historical database of the Paya Lebar Airport station and Changing Airfield. Coupled with the consideration of the limiting influence of the maximum sea temperature, it was deduced that the estimated maximum 24-hour persisting dew point temperature could not be possibly more than 28oC (as originally presented in PUB, 1980). At this dew point temperature, the corresponding precipitable water was 106.8 mm. The storm-maximizing factor is then calculated simply as an index of the ratio of the maximum precipitable water to the prevailing precipitable water content prior to the storm, i.e. 106.8/73.5= 1.45. Therefore the maximum rainfall that could possibly occur in 24 hours is 1.45 *536.5 mm, i.e. 777 mm. For PMP of less than 24-hour duration, similar methodology/technique was applied in terms of maximization to derive 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-hour duration PMPs.

TRANSPOSITION OF SHORT DURATION STORM Transposition is another ensuing major step in PMP studies. Transposition of storms from one location to others is subjected to various important contributing meteorological as well as geographical and topographical factors such as, presence of topographic barrier, elevation adjustment, distances from the storm center, and meteorological factors etc. However in SMHB/B&P practices, primarily due to scarcity of the meteorological data and high uncertainties in the chosen transposition technique, estimation of PMP values at the coastal region (assuming that Singapore is located in the geographically similar coastal region) might not be able to carry out after all. As such, SMHB/B&P adopted both short- and long-duration PMP values without taking into account the transposition factor for PMP derivation in mostly coastal region.

60 Though it is a conservative measure, but it should be acceptable in the absence of both concrete authoritative recommendations and limitations in understandings and knowledge of PMP derivation in Malaysia. Nevertheless, for interior region, the consensus amongst the experts in various SMHB/B&P branch office hydrological groups opined that by adopting coastal PMP without taking into account the transposition effect was somehow unduly conservative. Therefore, some forms of downward adjustment should be made for such purpose. An example of the application of transposition technique was demonstrated in the derivation of PMP values for Semenyih dam. In this particular study, the PMP derived from 1978 storm in Singapore was transposed to the Semenyih dam site. By taking into consideration the highest persistent dew point temperature in the State of Selangor (assuming PKM Petaling Jaya station is representative of the whole state of Selangor, at 26.7 oC; precipitable water 95 mm), the transposing factor was estimated as 0.89 (95/106.8=0.89). This amounting to some 11% reduction was primarily considered justifiable due to relatively lower historical persistent dew point temperature in the state of Selangor. By making the same assumption that the PMP at the Semenyih dam site is having the same probability of occurrence in the northern catchment, the PMP series was also subsequently been adopted for the detailed design studies of both Tinggi (formerly known as Buloh) and Selangor dams in the Sg. Selangor basin respectively. Table 3.6 shows the adopted coastal and inland PMP values by SMHB for various durations, i.e. 1- to 24-hour.

61 Table 3.6: Comparison of PMP of Coastal and Inland PMP Values Duration (hour) 1Coastal PMP (mm) * Inland PMP (mm) # 211 (190.5 mm or 7.5 in) 188 & 3337 300 6439 391 12582 518 24777 692 Col3 *transposition factor, 0.89; * based on Singapore 1978 storm; # Semenyih dam design; & in original text It should be reiterated that the adopted PMP values by SMHB though not strictly are based on WMO (1986, 2009) guideline per se, for which incorporating rather complex maximization and transposition approaches, nevertheless the general principles on maximization and transposition techniques are duly and consistently obeyed. In addition, the WMO approaches require some detailed meteorological as well as topographic information for which most of the times are unavailable. This essentially precludes an elaborate and thorough PMP studies in line with the WMO 332, 1045 (1986, 2009). This is particularly true for the case in Malaysia, as most of these meteorological parameters and data are difficult to come by in the earlier years of 1960s and 1970s. These two series of PMP are adopted for designs and studies undertaken by SMHB subsequently. Other transposition approaches for subsequent dam design assignment was also undertaken, such as those adopted in the recent Kelantan River Flood Mitigation Plan (SSP/SMHB, 1997), based mostly on the assumptions of reducing storm intensity and volumes when a storm travels in land from the coast to the dam catchments mostly located in the interior region of Kelantan. Analyses of the rainfall data immediately after the storm did support such observation. In this study, several transposition factors were derived, such as based on the ratios of annual rainfall, wet seasonal rainfall, maximum 5-day rainfall, and multiple regression approach of 5-day 100-year maximum rainfall.

62 These transposition factors were estimated ranges from as high as 0.92 to as low as 0.40. After diligent deduction, a medium value of 0.70 and 0.85 was finally selected for Kemubu and Lebir dams respectively (SSP/SMHB, 1997).

LONG-DURATION PMP Long duration PMP adopted by SMHB/B&P is based on the maximization of the December 1970 and January 1971 storm records of Mersing and Air Tawar rainfall stations near Endau. These values have also been previously used earlier studies by SSP/SMEC (1985; as quoted in SMHB, 1985) flood studies on Sg. Batu Pahat basin. SSP/SMEC (1985) study used maximum rainfall records at Mersing Meteorological Station for their works but it was reported later by SMHB (1985) that recent investigation indicated several other rainfall stations recorded maximum rainfall in excess of those reported by SSP/SMEC (1985). Notably, the highest total rainfalls were at Air Tawau School near Endau with maximum 5- and 7-day total of 1453 mm and 1632 mm respectively. Other rainfall stations nearby, JPT Setor in Endau, about 5 km from the Air Tawar School station also recorded higher rainfall, i.e. 1600 mm for 5-120 hour within a 7-day duration. This infers unrestricted total records from automatic station at JPS store in Endau, 5 km away from Air Tawar School. The 120-hour or 5-day PMP was 2030 mm if maximization factor (i.e. about 1.27) was taken into consideration (SMHB, 1986). Table 3.7 shows the long duration PMPs adopted by SMHB in its respective dam design assignment.

63 Table 3.7: Coastal and Inland PMPs (Long-Duration) adopted by SMHB Duration (hour) Coastal PMP (mm) Inland PMP (mm) (1) (2) (3) Short Duration PMP 24-* 777 * 692 Long Duration PMP 48-# 1356 # 908 72-# 1593 # 1067 120-# 2030 # 1360 col 2* 0.89; # col 2*0.67

MAXIMIZATION OF LONG DURATION STORM For 120-hour storm, a maximization factor of 1.40 has been used. It is therefore assumed that storms between 24- to 120-hour duration would have adopted the same factor.

TRANSPOSITION OF LONG DURATION STORM For transposition, a factor of 0.67 was applied for PMP duration of more than 24 hour. This factor was adopted based on the USBR recommendation in their review of PMP estimates for the Batu, Gombak, and Klang Gates dams (as quoted in SMHB, 1994; USBR, 1984).

64 3.2.6 REVIEW ON OTHER PMP STUDIES IN MALAYSIA

A fair and reliable source of PMP studies is from the past studies carried out by various engineering consultants in Malaysia. The results of PMPs needless to say, are also based on the consultants engineering intuitions and their relative accumulated experiences especially in reservoir/dam engineering design and construction projects. These are good sources for reference and therefore, accorded with priority to review their findings as appropriate. A short summary of PMP estimates of various reservoir/dam projects in Malaysia is presented previously in Table 3.5. Of particular interest to this study, PMP reports and studies in Peninsula Malaysia, particularly in the State of Selangor (of which seven (7) existing dams/reservoirs are located including Batu and Klang Gates dam under the jurisdiction of Kuala Lumpur are located) are also utmost relevant in this review. In addition comparison to the world maximum value is also imperative. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) maintains a register of record of maximum precipitation throughout the world (see Table 3.8). Figure 3.6 shows the world maximum PMPs as varied with the storm duration. Table 3.8: World Highest Precipitation
Duration 1 8 15 20 42 60 2.17 2.75 4.5 6 9 10 18.5 24 2 3 4 5 Units min Duration (minute) 1 8 15 20 42 60 130.2 165 270 360 540 600 1110 1440 2880 4320 5760 7200 Rainfall (mm) 38 126 198 206 305 401 483 559 782 840 1,087 1,400 1,689 1,825 2,467 3,130 3,721 4,301

hours

days

Source: WMO 1986

65

10000

y = 42.929x 2 R = 0.9962
1000

0.5173

mm 100 10 1 10 100 min 1000 10000

Figure 3.13: World Highest Precipitation: Depth Vs Duration

It is undoubtedly that during the course of dam and reservoir engineering design in Malaysia, PMP/PMF derivations for various projects are primarily hinged on the practices and conventions that are familiar to the engineering consultants. Fragmentation and diversification of opinion are the norms as the PMPs derived respectively vary from consultants own experiences in their undertakings. Thus this appears to be subject of contention and judgement. For example, SMHB/B&P relies mostly on the storm records in the Southern Johor in their

66 deliberation of PMP values for various dam/reservoir projects in Malaysia, whilst some other consultants rely mostly on the practices of ABM. Opinions and PMPs are thus greatly varied from one consultancy practices to the others. Recent NAHRIM (2009) shows that the maximum observed rainfalls in the east coastal region of Kelantan and Terengganu have surpassed the observed maximum in Mersing, Air Tawar in the southern state of Johor. One of the first unified attempts/efforts made to present a comprehensive review and derivation of the PMP in Malaysia, was a paper presented in the 1-day Specialty Seminar by Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran and Humid Tropic Center (JPS/HTC) using Hershfield statistical methodology (WMO 1986, 2009) and subsequent several publications was made by the same authors for PMPs in the states of Selangor and Johor. Under the auspice of National Water Resources Study 2000-2050 (SMHB/RB/JPZ, 2000), a peninsular wide PMP study was carried out as part of the baseline or background design parameters for future dam/reservoir schemes in Malaysia. PMPs for various durations, starting from 1- to 120-hour were derived using storm maximization of point rainfall station throughout Peninsular Malaysia. Regionalization of the point rainfall stations was carried out by mapping the isohyetal line or contour ranging from 1- to 120 hour. Figure 3.7 shows a 24-hour PMP contour map for peninsular Malaysia.

67

Figure 3.14: Peninsular Malaysia PMP: 1-day (Al Mamun and Hashim, 2004; originally published in NWRS (2000))

68 Other than local interests and efforts in PMP derivation, a paper on the estimation of PMP based on proxy (i.e. radar satellite) data was also available for review. In this paper, the results of PMPs derived in Malaysia were compared to the observed radar reading. This paper was originally presented in a workshop on satellite weather forecasting in Uruguay (http\\www.unesco.org.uy) and subsequently a full paper and results were published in Elseviers Journal of Hydrology. In this study, comparison and references on PMP values were also made on a small subcatchment of Sg. Terengganu basin in the eastern coastal region of the Peninsula Malaysia. Due its relevance to the PMP study, this particular paper was reviewed as appropriate and pertinent information is therefore excerpted for comparison purpose. SMHB/B&P PMP estimations for various dam design projects undertaken in Malaysia were based largely on the findings and opinions of SSP/HH (1979), B&P (1980), and subsequent review on Bekok dam by SSP/SMEC (1985) for both shortand long-duration events. Alternatively, Statistical approach, i.e. Hershfield technique, suitable for regions with scarce hydrometric data (dew points, wind records, etc), is sometimes used for checking and verification as deemed appropriate. With sufficient and significant in length of the historical rainfall records, Hershfield technique can be performed readily. As a result, collaborated efforts by JPS/HTC to estimate 24-hour PMP based on statistical technique in Selangor and Johor were materialized. In addition, a detailed hydrological study was also carried for the detailed design of the Perang Besar dam in the new Government Administrative Center of Putrajaya in southern Selangor. Besides, independent reviews on the PMP using hydro-meteorological or traditional approach was also undertaken in a hydrology study by Nippon-Koei/SMHB in earlier 2000. The results obtained by this specific study basically confirmed the earlier SSP/SMHB (1996) study on PMP derivations in the state of Kelantan using east coastal observed storms.

69 The following reports/studies are reviewed and the results of PMP derived and used in their respective reservoir or dam design projects are presented in the following subsections accordingly. 1 2 3 4 Langat Miles 24 Dam Stage II Design, March 1976 Dams on Sg. Bekok and Sg. Semberong, Detailed Investigation and Design: Hydrology, SSP and Howard Humphrey, October 1979 Modifications to the Seletar and Upper Peirce Reservoirs to Provide Additional Storage, PUB, B&P, 1980 Klang River Basin integrated Flood Mitigation Projects, Malaysia, Final Report, Kinhill Engineer Pty Ltd in association with Ranhill Bersekutu Sdn Bhd, November 1994 5 6 7 8 9 Kelantan River Flood Mitigation Plan Feasibility Study, SSP/SMHB, 1999 Putrajaya: Perang Besar Reservoir Design Study, Angkasa-GHD, 1998 Radar and Storm Model-based Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in the Tropics, P.J. Hardaker and C.G. Collier, 1999, www.unesco.org.uy National Water Resources Study 2000-2050, Hydrology Chapter on PMP Derivation, SMHB/RHB/ZAABA, 2000 Pahang-Selangor Raw Water Transfer Project Engineering Services and Detailed Engineering Design: Hydrology, August 2000 10 Probable Maximum Precipitation for 24 Hours Duration over Southeast Asian Monsoon Region- Selangor Malaysia, Desa, Noriah, Rakhecha. Extreme of the Extreme Rainfall in Selangor, JPS/HTC Seminar, September 2000 11 Short Duration Extreme Rainfall in Selangor, Desa and Rakhecha, ICUH 2002. Proceeding 2002 12 Gelami Dam Design Hydrological Study, JPS, 2002 13 Sg. Kelinchi Dam Water Resources Study, SSP/MM, 2001 14 Feasibility Study on Water Resources Development for Seremban and Port Dickson, SSP/SMEC, 1990 APPENDIX B summaries some of the PMPs adopted by above mentioned studies.

3.2.7

TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PMP

70

Temporal pattern of the PMPs is needed for convoluting the inflow hydrographs to the reservoir. This can be accomplished by knowing the temporal or time distribution of the PMP pattern in a region. Normally to carry out the task of deriving temporal pattern of storm rainfall occurrence requires task of searching through the recorded rainfall database. The observed temporal distribution could therefore be used to represent the PMPs in a given watershed or basin. Fortunately in Malaysia, these temporal patterns are being well documented in the JPS standard engineering manual of practices. Several pattern or arrangement of rainfall is available as follows: (1) Bell shape time distribution of PMPs for all durations is generally acceptable for this purpose in reservoir/dam design. (2) Patterns up to 6-hour time interval such as tabulated in the MSMA Manual (JPS, 2000) (3) Patterns from 3 hour up to 24-hour obtained from JPS Hydrological Procedure No: 1 (Fadhillah et al, 1982) Tables 3.9 and 3.10 show the fractions and inland PMP distributions for bell shaped temporal pattern from 3- to 48 hour, whereas Tables 3.11 show the PMP temporal fractions for 3- and 6-hour duration in MSMA (2000). Figures 3.8 to 3.12. Experiences showed that amongst the tree temporal patterns as mentioned above, bell shape pattern is commonly associated with PMP/PMF undertakings. Most if not all dam/reservoir design projects in Malaysia are based on this form of distribution which convolutes the highest PMF for a given PMP distribution. Figure 3.13 shows the bell shape temporal pattern of the PMPs adopted in this study. Temporal pattern presented in the Hydrological Procedure No: 1 (Fadhillah et al, 1982) is shown in

71

Table 3.9: Temporal Storm Pattern: Fraction

time hour FRACTION 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3 hour storm time hour 0.043 0.072 0.485 0.286 0.071 0.043 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6 hour storm time hour 0.020 0.023 0.029 0.043 0.074 0.411 0.211 0.075 0.036 0.035 0.022 0.021 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12 hour storm time hour 0.010 0.010 0.012 0.011 0.014 0.015 0.017 0.026 0.033 0.041 0.061 0.350 0.151 0.060 0.037 0.038 0.018 0.018 0.017 0.018 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.011 1.000 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 24 hour storm time hour 0.010 0.010 0.012 0.011 0.014 0.015 0.017 0.026 0.033 0.041 0.061 0.350 0.151 0.060 0.037 0.038 0.018 0.018 0.017 0.018 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.011 1.000 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0 32.0 34.0 36.0 38.0 40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 48 hour storm 0.010 0.010 0.012 0.011 0.014 0.015 0.017 0.026 0.033 0.041 0.061 0.350 0.151 0.060 0.037 0.038 0.018 0.018 0.017 0.018 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.011 1.000

TOTAL

1.000

1.000

72 Table 3.10: Temporal Storm Pattern: Inland PMPs for various Durations

time hour mm 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

3 hour storm time hour 300 12.9 0.5 21.6 1.0 145.5 1.5 85.8 2.0 21.3 2.5 12.9 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

Total

300

6 hour storm time hour 391 7.8 0.5 9.0 1.0 11.3 1.5 16.8 2.0 28.9 2.5 160.7 3.0 82.5 3.5 29.3 4.0 14.1 4.5 13.7 5.0 8.6 5.5 8.2 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 391

12 hour storm time hour 518 5.2 1.0 5.2 2.0 6.2 3.0 5.7 4.0 7.3 5.0 7.8 6.0 8.8 7.0 13.5 8.0 17.1 9.0 21.2 10.0 31.6 11.0 181.3 12.0 78.2 13.0 31.1 14.0 19.2 15.0 19.7 16.0 9.3 17.0 9.3 18.0 8.8 19.0 9.3 20.0 5.7 21.0 5.7 22.0 5.2 23.0 5.7 24.0 518

24 hour storm time hour 692 6.9 2.0 6.9 4.0 8.3 6.0 7.6 8.0 9.7 10.0 10.4 12.0 11.8 14.0 18.0 16.0 22.8 18.0 28.4 20.0 42.2 22.0 242.2 24.0 104.5 26.0 41.5 28.0 25.6 30.0 26.3 32.0 12.5 34.0 12.5 36.0 11.8 38.0 12.5 40.0 7.6 42.0 7.6 44.0 6.9 46.0 7.6 48.0 692

48 hour storm 908 9.1 9.1 10.9 10.0 12.7 13.6 15.4 23.6 30.0 37.2 55.4 317.8 137.1 54.5 33.6 34.5 16.3 16.3 15.4 16.3 10.0 10.0 9.1 10.0 908

73 Table 3.11: Temporal Storm Pattern: Fraction JPS MSMA (2000) for 3- and 6-hour Duration
time hour FRACTION 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3 hour storm 0.06 0.22 0.34 0.22 0.12 0.04 time hour 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6 hour storm 0.160 0.160 0.205 0.205 0.055 0.055 0.040 0.040 0.025 0.025 0.015 0.015

Example for 391 mm 6 hour storm

time hour mm 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3 hour storm 300 18.0 66.0 102.0 66.0 36.0 12.0 time hour 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6 hour storm 391 62.6 62.6 80.2 80.2 21.5 21.5 15.6 15.6 9.8 9.8 5.9 5.9 391.0

sum

300.0

74

Figure 3.15: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 3 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)

Figure 3.16: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 6 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)

75

Figure 3.17: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 12 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)

Figure 3.18: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 24 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)

76

Figure 3.19: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 72 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)

300.0 250.0 200.0 mm 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 hr 3h 12 h 24 h 20.0 25.0 30.0

Figure 3.20: Temporal Storm Pattern: Bell Shape Curve 3-, 12-, and 24- Hour 24 Hour @ 0.5 and 1 Hour Time Step Increment

77 2.3 Areal Reduction Factor (ARF)

Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) is defined as Ratio of a mean areal rainfall for a given duration and given return period to a mean point rainfall for the same duration and same return period in the same area. Areal reduction factor (ARF) is a key quantity in the design that used to adjust the PMP values from point to areal or catchment wide domain. The adjusted PMP values will then used for generating PMF values. The main reason to adjusting the PMP values is to prevent hydrologic extremes or in overestimate of PMPs. This reduction accomplished by multiplying the point PMP to an appropriate reduction coefficient. Figure 3.14 shows ARFs for duration ranging from 0.5- to 24 hour that are originated from US National Weather Services (NWS) and are also being widely adopted in Malaysia. For a smaller reservoir catchment area, the reduction factors are negligible. They are ranging from 0.83 to 0.98 for durations starting from 0.5- to 24-hour. It is therefore proposed that no reduction factor will be taken into account in the derivation of PMFs.

Figure 3.21 Areal Reduction Factor: ARF (NWS, USA)

78 3 3.1 Probable Maximum Flood Introduction

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is derived from observed maximum rainfall records with some stringent rule and provision of storm maximization and transposition procedure in tandem (WMO, 1986, 2009). Theoretically, the magnitude of precipitation (or rainfall) on par with the PMP event is perhaps never observed in the life time of a reservoir/dam structure. As discussed earlier, PMPs are basically reviewed from time to time with additional observed maximum records over the years. However, there is no guideline on the span or interval of such review should be taken place. Based mostly on practical experiences in Malaysia, PMPs are derived based on the historical maximum rainfall records mostly in the east coastal regions of the Peninsular Malaysia. These states are from the northeastern corner of Kelantan, proceeding down to the southern tip of the Peninsular Malaysia, including the states of Terengganu, Pahang, and most of the eastern seaboard of the state of Johor. These particular regions experience the most heaviest downfalls during the monsoonal months from November to earlier February of next calendar years (known as Northeastern Monsoon, locally). The storms can run for a span of several days to a week with intermittent rainfall events of various intensities. The observed records that were collected over the years, both recording and non recording maximum rainfalls alike. These records provide the basis of PMP derivation. Major undertakings were carried out in the Kelantan Flood Mitigation Project (SMHB/SSP, 1997) and Interstate Raw Water Transfer from Pahang to Selangor (NK/SMHB, 2000). The PMPs as mentioned earlier, are seldom observed in real world or else the adoption of such PMP values in dam and reservoir design would be considered a gross underestimatation. It is generally according to the world wide practices in dam design, adopted for the design of the dam structure (in addition, this methodology is

79 also applicable in the nuclear power facility design) out of concern for public safety in light of the occurrence of the exceptionally heavy rainfall events. The outlet structures (sluice gates and spillways) of a dam shall be able to evacuate an extreme flood of PMP magnitude. To estimate the incoming flood into a reservoir, an appropriate technique is needed to translate the PMPs into probable maximum flood (PMF). In turn it is adopted for the spillway design of a dam. The objective of this segment of the study is to address the mechanisms and procedures on the translation of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) using Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) derived and addressed earlier in the PMP issue. The technique is termed as convolution. The Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is defined by the World Meteorological Organization (1986; 2009) as a quantity of precipitation that is close to the physical upper limit for a given duration that is meteorologically possible over a particular basin. By the same definition, PMF is the flood that may be expected from the most severe combination of critical meteorological and hydrologic factors/conditions that are reasonably possible in a particular catchment basin/area (Chow et al, 1988). The Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is derived from the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the design flood inflow into reservoirs where involve in spillways design. So that, designing spillways using PMF is to avoid the overtopping of dams and avoid from failure of dam structure. It is always necessary to determine the largest flood possible at a location when designing a dam for maximum reliability as well as safety. In the case where the risk of dam overtopping is deemed unacceptable, an estimate of the PMP is used to generate the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) at the dam site. The translation of PMP to PMF is akin to a conventional rainfall runoff routing technique, has become the standard for the dam worldwide. As mentioned earlier, rainfall runoff modelling approach has been the convention as well as industrial standard in assessing the quantitative flooding

80 impacts of extreme storm events in a watershed/basin. The mathematical modelling tools are also being frequently used to assess the magnitude of flood flows and stages for a given probability of rain storm occurrence in a river basin or channel. On further elaboration, they are also being routinely used to generate rainfall induced runoff hydrograph for special hydraulic structure design such as dams and outlet structures, etc. The modelling approaches perform the task of translating and routing of PMPs into PMFs of various rainstorm durations. Out of many hydrological rainfall runoff techniques available worldwide and on occasion of those have been adopted from time to time, two approaches or models are the most commonly used in Malaysia. They are: 1. HP 11: Unit flood hydrograph type (Taylor and Toh, 1976) 2. RORB: Rainfall runoff model for basin scale (Laurensen and Mein, 1985) Unit hydrograph UH approach similar to the technique espoused in HP 11 (1980) was also been used in the design study of some dams in the earlier 1960s when computer modeling tools are basically not available at that time. A unit hydrograph of specific duration was generated using an effective rain storm volume of 1 cm. Unit hydrographs were also developed for other storm durations up to 48 hour as well. The last step of the derivation using HP 11 (Taylor and Toh, 1976) technique was the convolution of the hydrograph. The unit hydrograph for any duration could then be then used to convolute the PMFs for given PMPs value of specific duration by assumption of superposition of rainfall depth.

81 3.2 Hp 11 Hydrological Procedure (Taylor And Toh, 1976)

HP 11 (Taylor and Toh, 1976) was a modified Snyder type of synthetic unit hydrograph approach that use for simple flood estimate procedure for a small basin(maximum catchment area up to 518 km2) in Peninsular Malaysia. This is therefore supposedly the upper limit of the catchment area draining the stream flow station used in the calibration exercise. The advantages of this unit hydrograph based model is that it can be used to distribute runoff from storms of varying temporal pattern and also the fact that the calibrating parameters required are kept to minimum but generally includes essential topographic and geographic/geometric properties, such as the catchment slope, catchment area, reach lengths, etc. The performance of HP-11 (Taylor and Toh, 1976) was generally deemed satisfactory and acceptable in PMP/PMF translation as adequate understandings of the mechanisms of runoff generation mainly in Peninsular Malaysia. The output of a HP 11 (Taylor and Toh, 1976) is the 10 mm-unit hydrographs for various storm durations by the catchment geophysical characteristics, such as time of concentration, general catchment slope etc. Subsequently hydrographs are derived using convolutional approach. This procedure is a variant of the time honored Clark Hydrograph technique (Subramanya, 1994) where in the unit hydrograph derivation for catchments without actual observed rainfall and runoff records are unfortunately unavailable. It is a shortcoming in Malaysia as well as worldwide that the data sets that is used for calibration is not readily available. Therefore recourses are then made to correlate geographic properties that are readily measured from topography map to the hydrograph. Compared to other much more sophisticated model, it does not seem to make much difference in the hydrographical variables.

82 The steps for estimating the design flood hydrograph are as follows: 1. For a topographical map, compare the topography of the catchment with similar catchments studied in the investigation and select the appropriate hydrographical group. Compute L, Lc, A and S for the catchment. 2. Calculate Lg for the catchment using equation below with n equal to 0.35, and C t values can obtained from appendix c table 1. Lg = Ct x (LLc/ S1/2)n 3. Calculate the design storm for the catchment using D.I.D. hydrological procedure No.1 (Heiler 1973). The design storm should be calculated for a range of durations. Experience suggests that the critical duration giving highest peak discharge is often similar to the catchment lag time. 4. Calculate Q from equation below. Q = 0.33P Q = P2/(P +6) 5. Calculate qp from the following equation, if the total hydrograph is required calculate T b and T p from the appropriate values can obtained in appendix C table 2. qp = (Dp x A x640 x Q) / (Lg + D/2) 6. Add the design base flow component of 5 cusecs per square mile.

83 3.3 Rorb Win Model Description

The following description of RORB WIN model is mainly for the completion of the literature review. Due to time constraints and other restrictions arise during the course of preparation of this report it is therefore not adopted in this study. RORB (Laurenson and Mein, 1985) is an originally a DOS based (subsequently WINDOW version; downloadable from Sinclair Knight Merz [SKM]; an international consulting engineering firm) computer or mathematical model that is been routinely used to translate storm/rainfall excess through a network of concentrated or lumped non linear storages. The storages are arranging in such a way to represent the river topology and network schematically. It is defined as an event based type of pseudo spatially varied rainfall runoff model. Application of this rainfall runoff model involves division of the entire basin or catchment into several sub catchments so that each one of them can be representative of spatial difference such as hydrometrical, topographic and geographical features. Most of the time, both spatial and temporal rainfall pattern can be suitably taken account by division of catchment area or basin. Gross storm rainfall depth is assumed to descend uniformly within the sub catchment. Net rainfall or excess is generated by taking into account the infiltration and other losses that might incur. Normally, two types of loss models are available. The first type is the first time off or initial and continued reduction of a specific quantum of rainfall depth being treated as loss tem within the sub catchment before runoff is generated. This offers flexibility in modelling exercise. Figure 3.15 shows the sampled subdivision of the catchment area at the dam site. The outlet represents the location of the dam site.

84

Figure 3.22: Representation of sub catchment in RORB model Source: www2.mainroads.wa.gov.au

The initial and continued loss model due to infiltration and/or other processes is best suited for a homogeneous sub catchment of uniform vegetation and at the same time, the infiltration rates and other loss rates in the hydrologic balance equation could be confidently measured or estimated. The second type of loss model is also based mostly on premise of land use characteristics of the sub catchment if the rainfall runoff coefficient could be known or assumed a priori. It works reasonably well if the runoff characteristic of the sub basin is confidently assessed and quantified. The second type runoff coefficient based loss model can be used to represent urbanized areas in terms of runoff generation and furthermore, on the extreme end of the spectrum in the hydrological estimation and forecasting, such as prediction of the most probable extreme runoff scenario. Once the gross storm rainfall is acted on by the loss model to produce rainfall excess, this in turn is converted or convolute into a direct runoff hydrograph. Addition of the base flow hydrograph would therefore produce a complete runoff hydrograph in response to the rain storm.

85 The hydrograph generated by an individual sub catchment is then routed through a network of dendric river or channel nonlinearly. Storage is used to represent the effect of overland and subsurface and channel reach routing. On any branch the hydrograph from the first sub catchment is transferred or routed through the first storage. The hydrograph from the second sub catchment is then added to it and the process is then repeated. At the confluence the hydrograph is stored until other hydrographs from the other tributaries have been computed the same way. The hydrographs are then combined and proceed to further downstream until reaching the outlet of interest or entire basin or catchment. At this instance, the complete outflow hydrograph is obtained by adding the predetermined base flow. Oftentimes, the base flow is only representing a smaller percentage in terms of the extremely and relatively larger flood flow. hydrograph. The modelling approach of RORB is based on the premise of water balance within a sub catchment or a channel reach which can also conveniently represent the entire homogeneous hydrological unit. The water balance is shown as follows: So it can be mostly neglected in the construction of the inflow

Where: S = storage I = inflow Q = outflow/discharge Reach/sub catchment storages in the context of RORB modelling representation are assumed to be governed by a storage-discharge (S and Q) relationship or equation of the form.

86
S = 2500kQ m S = storage Q = outflow discharge k , m = fitted parameters

The coefficients, k and m, are termed as calibrated catchment/watershed parameters that will be derived from the results of the calibration process. The coefficient k value is in fact a multiplicative value or product of two other coefficients, kr and kc coefficients in the original RORB model. The overall k value for a specific catchment is best obtained from the calibration exercise and it is found to be intimately related to the time of travel or time of concentration for one drop of rainfall to travel through the dendrical overland and channel network to the outlet of interest. A low value of k suggests faster and perhaps flashy response of the runoff hydrograph. On the other hand, higher k is indicative of the opposite, where attenuation of the hydrograph is prevailing. The exponent m is a measure of basin hydrograph response in linearity. Unity value of m represents the rainfall runoff mechanism of the catchment is linear. Deviations and/or variations that are too far off from the unity value are rarely observed throughout the experiences and literature since the inception of RORB. As recommended by Laurensen and Mein (1985), the exponent m is often assumed 0.8. A higher m value indicates the change of shape of both rising and receding limbs, i.e. as graphically shown as fatness of the hydrograph. Over the years experiences in Malaysia (NK/SMHB, 2000) shows that k value can be related to an enveloping curve that correlates the PMF/flood discharge (of 100-year return period) to the catchment or basin areas. For a smaller catchment such as Semenyih dam, 57 km2, the RORB parameter, k is approximately 6.0, considering shorter length of the tributary rivers to the dam site. Figure 3.16 shows a regionalized k-catchment area relationship in NK/SMHB (2000) study.

87

1000

Peninsula Malaysia Sarawak Malaysia

100

kc 10 1 10 100 1000 Area (km2) 10000 100000

Figure 3.23: Regionalized k-catchment area relationship Source: NK/SHMB (2000)

Other studies such as in McNamara (1987) and JASA/SMHB (2003), k value is correlated to the catchment area using a power equation as shown below.

88
McNamara (1987) k =11.9 A 0.29 JASA/SMHB (2003) k = 7.10 A 0.357 k = RORB calibrated parameter, ND A = catchment area km 2

These two formulas estimated rather higher k value which in effect, would provide a rather higher attenuation of flood generation. Besides, they are basically calibrated using a much larger area river basin. In most of the flood studies carried out in Malaysia, the exponential m value remains a constant, i.e. 0.80. It is perhaps due to difficulty in obtaining observed concurrent rainfall and runoff records that makes such calibration a tedious task. Notwithstanding, m value is not affecting the fatness or peakiness of the peak discharge of the hydrograph generated by RORB modelling. On the other hand, a computerized RORB model has also been used in Malaysia for flood related studies since its inception in the late 1980s. Experiences accumulated using RORB by engineering designer communities are numerous in Malaysia. This model is mainly mentioned in literature review in the segment of the report. It is not adopted in this study as some of the information is not forthcoming at the time of writing this report in this study. It has been used recently in the design study of two proposed dams, i.e. Telemong and Kelau dams in the state of Pahang (NK/SMHB, 2000). Other projects where RORB modelling undertaking has been an extensive modelling component and was part of the assignment are in Sg. Sarawak basin, RORB was used in consecutive flood management studies in the earlier 1980s (McNamara, 1987) and 2000s (JASA/SMHB, 2003).

89 Results of various RORB modelling studies throughout Malaysia help in a way to gain confidence in parameter estimations in a watershed. In this study, RORB is selected for PMF estimation.

3.4

Comparison of PMFs

Comparison of estimated PMFs is normally made with other earlier studies within the hydrometeorological homogeneous region. It is carried out by plotting logarithmically the catchment area (x-axis) and maximum PMF (in y-axis). In Malaysia, considering the smaller size of the river basin, a modified Creager type of double logarithmic plot of catchment area versus PMFs is presented in Figure 3.17 (also see Table 3.12).

Figure 3.24: PMF-Catchment Area Creager Curve: Malaysia Dam Inflows

90

Upper line denotes envelopment by eye fitting

Table 3.12: Creager Type Curve: Catchment Area Versus Peak PMPs/PMFs For Various Dams in Malaysia

91
Dam Ulu Ai Ahning Batang Ai Liwagu kenyir Bakun Pelagus Murum Kemubu Lebir Neggerri Pergau Tekai Kelau Telemong Batu Klang Gates Langat Puah Tembat Pedu Muda Durian Tunggal Klang Gates Semenyih Pedas Sungai Terip Tengengor Jus Batu Hampar Bengoh Semenyih Bengoh Machap Segamat Upper Layang Kahang Kinta Beris Machap Machap ACE report Batu Air Itam Catchment area (km ) PMF (m /s) 355 5550 120 2580 1200 6122 2318 17400 2600 12700 14750 44800 21020 42500 2750 18800 5630 18125 2480 11600 3740 12500 89 2924 1230 7300 331 5660 360 5350 50 915 77 1610 41 1245 410 6690 101 3028 171 2650 984 6235 42 2265 77 1716 57 1215 6 1076 26 340 6553 13580 23 755 14 492 127 2420 57 1542 127 2197 77 1407 68 1465 31 735 62 1324 148 2398 116 1838 77 1349 77 724 50 879 5 708
2 3

Estimated PMF (m /s) 4034 2191 8008 11602 12377 32885 40143 12774 19121 12052 15188 1851 8121 3878 4066 1338 1706 1197 4375 1988 2674 7162 1213 1706 1441 406 926 20827 864 653 2262 1441 2262 1706 1591 1022 1510 2465 2149 1706 1706 1338 366

% 27 15 31 33 3 27 6 32 5 4 22 37 11 31 24 46 6 4 35 34 1 15 46 1 19 62 172 53 14 33 7 7 3 21 9 39 14 3 17 26 136 52 48

Reservoir Routing

Routing by definition in the hydrological term and setting, is a process used to predict the temporal and spatial variations of a flood hydrograph as it moves through

92 a river reach or reservoir. The outputs/effects of storage and flow resistance within a river reach and/or reservoir are reflected by changes in hydrograph shape and timing as the flood wave moves from upstream to downstream of the river reach or reservoir. Figure 3.18 shows the major changes that occur to a discharge hydrograph as a flood wave moves downstream.

Figure 3.25: Discharge Hydrograph Routing Effects

As a time varied flood wave approaches and passes through a reservoir, the characteristics of unsteady flow wave become significant. An accounting procedure of inflow and outflow rates and coupled with the water storage characteristics by routing a flood hydrograph through the reservoir must therefore be strictly observed. Several analytical and graphical methods route flood hydrographs through reservoirs or other detention facilities. Nevertheless, all of the methods require reliable descriptions of the following three items/inputs:

93 an inflow runoff hydrograph for the passage of the flood the storage capacity versus water elevation of the reservoir the performance characteristics of outlet facilities associated with the operation of the facility By definition, when both the inflow and outflow from a reservoir (or any type of storage facility) are equal, a steady-state condition exists. If the inflow exceeds the outflow, the additional discharge or flow is therefore stored in the system and raising up the water level in the reservoir. Conversely, when the outflow exceeds the inflow, water is taken from storage. All in all, this rhythm of adding and drawing waters from the storage is reflected in the rise and fall of the water level above the crest level of the dam structure.

4.1

Basic of Reservoir Routing Equation

Quantitatively, this statement of flow continuity can be written in the form of water balance equation as follows. Qualitatively, it is the rate of change of storage volume in a reservoir is the summation and quantification of all inflows from various sources and appropriately deducting the amount of outflow via outlet structures, such as spillways or bottom outlet of a reservoir/dam. It is assumed that other losses such as seepage through the dam body are negligible.

Where :

94

Various routing methods are available for solving the storage discharge and elevation of a flood routing problem routine in a reservoir. These methods are Puls technique Goodrich Ordinary differential equations (ODEs), i.e. Runge Kutta 4th order

For the purpose of this study, only modified Puls technique is used for reservoir routing exercise. Other names have been used for same technique in various literatures, i.e. level pool technique, storage indication routing, etc.

4.2

Modified Puls Or Storage Indication Routing Method

Amongst many methods/techniques for routing floods through reservoirs, the modified Puls method is perhaps a relatively simple and straightforward procedure

95 suitable for the assignment. Since the outflow discharge (Q) is a function of storage alone, it is therefore convenient to rearrange the standard routing equation as follows (Subramaya, 1994):

dS = I Q dt Descretizing continuity equation I1 + I 2 Q1 + Q2 S 2 S1 = 2 2 t 2S2 2S + Q2 = ( I1 + I 2 ) + 1 Q1 t t or Q t I + I Q t S 2 + 2 = 1 2 t + S1 1 2 2 2 LHS = RHS Q t S + VS Q graph 2

The right hand side quantity is the storage and discharge variables based on current time step. It is the sum of the known variables from previous time step carried over at the left hand side. Once the quantity is being known, prediction of the discharges can therefore be made vie the prior relationship between storage indicator curve accordingly. The storage indicator curve is described based on:
LHS = RHS Qt S + VS Q graph 2

The initial values for terms in the right hand side are obtained from the boundary or initial conditions which normally assume that the water level is at its full supply level (FSL) prior to the onset of a PMP/PMF event. The solution of storage indicator curve and outflow at the next time step needs another equation another equation to describe the storage-discharge relationship.

96

Amongst the techniques available for reservoir routing, modified puls reservoir routing is one of the simplest routing applications is the analysis of a flood wave that passes through an unregulated reservoir. The inflow hydrograph is known a priori, and it is desirable to estimate the outflow hydrograph from the reservoir. Assumption for run is mostly at the conservative side, the reservoir storage is considered full at its crest level prior to inflows by a PMP/PMF event, as previously mentioned. This serves well as the initial condition for the reservoir routing routine. To carry out the task of reservoir routing, a unique relationship between storage and outflow has therefore to be developed a priori, as shown in Figure 3.19.

Figure 3.26: Reservoir Storage Routing Indicator Source: Abstract from Engineering Hydrology Training Series Module 211 at http://www.wsi.nrcs.usda.gov/products/w2q/H&H/docs/training_series_modules/rese rvoir-flood-routing2.pdf 4.3 Spillway Configuration

97 Spillway and other outlet structures of a dam/reservoir define the outflow of the PMP/PMF. Spillways are provided for both controlled and uncontrolled release of flows from a dam/reservoir downstream such as rivers. They release floods so that the water does not overtop the dam. They are safety valves that trigger releases of torrential flows for which the reservoir could no longer hold. Except during flood periods, water does not normally flow over a spillway. In contrast, other intake structure, such as the bottom outlet which is an intake that is used to release water on a regular basis for water supply, hydroelectricity generation, environmental flow requirements, etc. Sometimes, floodgates and fuse plugs may be designed into spillways to regulate water flow and dam height. Other uses of the term spillway include bypasses of dams or outlets of a channels used during high water, and outlet channels carved through natural dams such as moraines. TYPE OF SPILLWAY The simplest form of the constructing a discharge stage curve is for ungated outflow structures, in this case, spillways such as bellmouth, ogee type, etc. All gated structures and spillway openings are open prior to the onset of a PMP/PMF event. Unless the gates and other crest appurtenances such as piano key, labrynth, fuseplug, etc are parts of dam raising effort to increase the usable/live storage.

98

CHAPTER 4

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

The results of this study are presented in two (2) parts, namely, on the derivation of PMP/PMF using an acceptable catchment routing procedure based on Snyder synthetic hydrograph concept and on the results of reservoir routing and estimation of flood rise using a simple approach attributed to Puls (Chow et al, 1988).

PMP/PMF Catchment Routing

The catchment routing adopted in this study is one of the simplest procedures based on Snyder type of synthetic unit hydrograph approach. Firstly, the estimated 10 mm unit hydrograph is derived for existing Langat dam catchment (CA= 41 km2) and secondly, the rainfall induced outflow onto the lake surface area is also taken into consideration. It is assumed that instantaneity of the PMPs of various durations translates the rainfall into runoff and these are illustrated by a short duration sharp peak discharge during the earlier hour of the PMP/PMF hydrographs with the exception of long duration hour PMP/PMF such as 120-hour. hydrographs for 1- to 120-hour duration are shown in Figure 4.1. A way to check if the estimated PMPs/PMFs are of reasonable value is to check against results and findings of various previous undertakings in Malaysia. One of these techniques is to plot the catchment area draining at the dam site versus the The PMP/PMF

99 peak PMP/PMF that is similar to a Creager type of curve. For a relatively smaller catchment size, such as a Langat dam (CA=41 km2), the estimated PMP/PMF, of about 1018 m3/s is within the same order of magnitude if compared to regressed curve using various catchment area-peak PMP/PMF relationships. Comparison of catchment area and peak PMP/PMF relationship is illustrated in Figure 4.2 (also see Table 4.1).

Figure 4.27: PMP/PMF Catchment Routing: 1- to 120-hour

100

Figure 4.28: Creager Type Catchment Area-PMF Relationship

101 Table 4.13: Creager Type Curve: Catchment Area Versus Peak PMPs/PMFs For Various Dams in Malaysia
c Ulu Ai Ahning Batang Ai Liwagu kenyir Bakun Pelagus Murum Kemubu Lebir Neggerri Pergau Tekai Kelau Telemong Batu Klang Gates Langat Puah Tembat Pedu Muda Durian Tunggal Klang Gates Semenyih Pedas Sungai Terip Tengengor Jus Batu Hampar Bengoh Semenyih Bengoh Machap Segamat Upper Layang Kahang Kinta Beris Machap Machap ACE report Batu Tinggi Langat 2012 Catchment area (km ) PMF (m /s) 355 5550 120 2580 1200 6122 2318 17400 2600 12700 14750 44800 21020 42500 2750 18800 5630 18125 2480 11600 3740 12500 89 2924 1230 7300 331 5660 360 5350 50 915 77 1610 41 1245 410 6690 101 3028 171 2650 984 6235 42 2265 77 1716 57 1215 6 1076 26 340 6553 13580 23 755 14 492 127 2420 57 1542 127 2197 77 1407 68 1465 31 735 62 1324 148 2398 116 1838 77 1349 77 724 50 879 40 1412 40 1080
2 3

Estimated PMF (m /s) 3907 2092 7879 11513 12300 33427 40993 12704 19194 11969 15165 1761 7992 3752 3938 1263 1620 1127 4245 1894 2565 7028 1143 1620 1362 372 867 20948 808 607 2161 1362 2161 1620 1508 959 1430 2360 2051 1620 1620 1263 1111 1111

% 30 19 29 34 3 25 4 32 6 3 21 40 9 34 26 38 1 9 37 37 3 13 50 6 12 65 155 54 7 23 11 12 2 15 3 30 8 2 12 20 124 44 21 3

102 2 Reservoir Routing

The primary purpose of reservoir routing is to determine the outflows of the PMPs/PMPs as they pass through the reservoir. At the same time, the stage or flood rise is also estimated from the outflow-stage rating relationship. It is desirable that the maximum flood rise for various durations, i.e. from 1- to 120-hour is less than the embankment crest level (ECL) of the dam, failing which, run into the risk of being overtopped. For Langat dam, the flood rises for all durations are marginally lower than the ECL, +223.8 m msl. Therefore Langat dam is deemed safe from the onslaught of an PMP/PMF event. Table 4.2 shows the summary of the results of outflows and their corresponding flood rises. Table 4.14: Results of PMP/PMF Reservoir Routing: 1- to 120-hour Duration Unit Duration Hour hydrograph
3

Time to peak

Base Flow PMP mm 211 338 440 584 777 1356 1593 2030 PMF m3/s 1059 1080 947 723 504 415 369 254 Q m /s 655 820 777 649 477 408 364 253
3

Q m /s /cm 1 53 3 36 6 25 12 15 24 8 48 4 72 3 120 2 FSL + 221.0 m msl ECL + 223.8 m msl

tp Time tb hour hour 2 5 3 7 5 9 8 15 14 26 25 49 37 72 60 117

Flood rise m msl 223.36 223.74 223.65 223.35 222.91 222.72 222.60 222.25

103

Figure 4.29: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 1 hour duration

104

Figure 4.30: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 3 hour duration

105

Figure 4.31: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 6 hour duration

106

Figure 4.32: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 12 hour duration

107

Figure 4.33: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 24 hour duration

108

Figure 4.34: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 48 hour duration

109

Figure 4.35: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 72 hour duration

110

Figure 4.36: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 120 hour duration

111

CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSION

Conclusion

A hydrological dam safety exercise is carried out with the objective to assess the performance of the bellmouth spillway in light of an extreme meteorological event of the PMP/PMF magnitude. Langat dam (CA= 41 km2) is a small catchment water supply reservoir scheme to supply raw waters to Langat Mile 10 Water Treatment Plant (WTP). This study adopts inland type of PMPs as derived previously by SMHB (2012). A catchment routing procedure is used to translate the PMPs to PMFs for 1- to 120hour duration. The results of the PMPs/PMFs are comparable to the Creager type of catchment area-PMP relationship of various dams in Malaysia. A conventional reservoir routing procedure by modified Puls technique is then carried out for all PMP/PMF durations, i.e. 1- to 120-hour. In general, the flood rises for all durations are marginally lower than the ECL, +223.8 m msl. It is therefore concluded that Langat dam (CA= 41 km2) with its ample surcharge capacity is safe from the onslaught of a PMP/PMF event. However, the provision of wave run-up, normally an additional 1 m or so free board is no longer available. Therefore it is recommended that a parapet wall of 1.0 m in height can be installed along the dam crest on the water edge could be of help to mitigate simultaneous PMP/PMF event with higher wave run-up.

112

REFERENCES

Atikah, (2009). Extreme Flood Event: A Case Study on Floods of 2006 and 2007 in Johor, Malaysia. Technical Report. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.

Azmi J and Othman Z, (1989). Rational Method for Flood Estimation in Rural Catchments in Peninsular Malaysia. (Revised and Updated), Hydrological Procedure No. 5, Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Bureau of Meteorology (2003) The Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in Australia: Generalised Short-Duration Method, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, June 2003, (39pp).

Chow, V.T. (1951). A General Formula for Hydrologic. Frequency Analysis, Trans. American Geophysical. Union, v. 32, no. 2, pp. 231-237.

Desa MN., A. B. Noriah, P. R. Rakhecha (2001) Probable maximum precipitation for 24 h duration over southeast Asian monsoon regionSelangor, Malaysia.

Atmospheric Research, Volume 58, Issue 1, June 2001, Pages 41-54

113 Desa MN and PR Rekhecha, (2007) Probable maximum precipitation for 24-h duration over an equatorial region: Part 2-Johor, Malaysia. Atmospheric Research Volume 84, Issue 1, Pages 84-90

Fadhlillah Mohd b. Hj Mahmood, Salena, S, Leong, TM, and The SK (1982). Estimation of the Design Rainstorm in Peninsular Malaysia (Revised and Updated), Hydrological Procedure No.1, Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Heng HH & CP Hii, (2010). Probable Maximum Precipitation Derivation in Malaysia: Review and Comparison. International Journal of Hydro Climatic Engineering, in press.

JASA/SMHB (2003), Sg. Sarawak Flood Mitigation Option Study, Final Report. Department of Drainage and Irrigation, Sarawak.

Koutsoyiannis D, (1999) A probabilistic view of Hershfields method for estimating

probable maximum precipitation, Water Resources Research, 35(4), 1313-1322.

Laurenson EM and Mein,R (1985). RORB version 4 runoff routing programManual, Monash University. Australia.

MASMA (2000). Urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia. Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

114 McNamara Cameron Consultants, (1987), Sungai Sarawak flood plain model study: Report No. 86-1702 to Drainage and Irrigation Department., Government.of Sarawak.

NAHRIM (2008). Floods in Malaysia.

Derivation of Probable Maximum Precipitation for Design Technical research publication (TRP) No. 1, Ministry of

Natural Resources and Environment, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

NK/SMHB. (2000). Nippon Koei in association with SMHB, 2000. PahangSelangor Raw Water Transfer Project Engineering Services and Detailed Engineering Design: Hydrograph, Final Report. Malaysia, JBA, JKR.

Ong, (1987). Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in Peninsular Malaysia (Revised and Updated) Hydrological Procedure No. 4, Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

SMHB (1992). Pahang Water Resources Study, EPU, Government of Malaysia SMHB (1994). Johor Water Resources Study, EPU, Government of Malaysia.

SMHB/RB/JPZ (2000). Government of Malaysia.

National Water Resources Study: 2000-2050, EPU,

SSP/HH (1980). Dams on Sungai Bekok and Sungai Sembrong, Feasibility Study . Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

115 SSP/SMHB (1997). Kelantan River Flood Mitigation Project: Feasibility Study . Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Subramanya K (1994). Engineering hydrology, 2nd edition, Tata- McGraw Hill Publishing Company. Limited, New Delhi.

Taylor, M.A.W and Y.K.Toh (1976). Design Flood Hydrograph Estimation for Rural Catchments in Peninsular Malaysia. Kuala Lumpur, Hydrological Procedure No: 11. (HP 11) Jabatan Pengaliran dan Saliran, Ministry of Agriculture ,Malaysia.

116

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A: Adjustments for Hershfield PMP

(Attach the figure A1 to A5 in the following pages)

117

Figure A1: Km as a Function of Rainfall Duration and Mean Annual Series (after Hershfield)

118

Figure A2: Adjustment Factor for Xn for to cater for Maximum Observed Rainfall

119

Figure A3: Adjustment factor for Sn to cater for Maximum Observed Rainfall

120

Figure A4: Factors to Adjust Xn and Sn Based on Length of Records

121

Figure A5: Adjustment of PMP based on number of readings made over fixed interval records

122

APPENDIX B: Review of PMPs in Malaysia

(Attach the review B1 to B13 in the following pages)

123 B1 Langat Dam Design 1976

The design storm (note: it was not mentioned explicitly in the report that design storm is PMP in present day terminology but for the purpose of reservoir design, one would assume that PMP values were implied in the dam design practices in Malaysia) adopted in the design of Langat dam was based on review of all the maximum recorded rainfall of both short- and long-duration in both Singapore and Malaysia. Notably for short duration storm of less than 1 hour adopted was based entirely on an earlier B&P study on envelopment of maximum recorded rainfall for Singapore and East coastal region of Malaysia. The maximum 1-hour rainfall by envelopment was 190.5 mm (or 7.50 in). This subsequently is being adopted by SMHB/B&P in most of their dam design undertaking latter years in Malaysia. Due to steepness in topography of the Langat reservoir catchment (this was translated into mainly the faster rising limb of the hydrograph) and relatively smaller catchment area, the shorter duration PMP was deemed therefore far more important that those of more than 24 hour. Comparison between the available historical storm records of both east and west coast indicated that the east coast were generally higher that those of the west coast. The highest point 24-hour recorded rainfall was 754 mm and 263 mm at Kota Baru JPS Store (in 1981, the highest point rainfall recorded was at the Pengkalan Chepa airport, of about 981 mm) and Tanjung Karang JPS Store respectively. The design report also included some important historical observed storm event experienced in Malaysia. For brevity they are tabulated as below. Maximum Recorded Rainfall Prior to 1976 Station Rainfall (mm) Mersing Segamat Tangkak Sg. Sembrong Mawai Segamat Labis Pekan Nanas Kuantan (east) Mersing (east) Subang Airport (west) Ulu Langat Mile 22 (west) Kepong Serendah ( ) 120-hour Remarks

287 7th January 1952 (B&P, 1959) 260 267 260 10th December 1969 B&P (1970) 437 318 468 257 327/ (868) MMS 430 (679) MMS 171 (293) MMS 166 (333) B&P (1971) 283 From USBR 1954 Study 268

124 Selection of the storm PMPs for spillway design was mainly accomplished by comparing the design storms adopted in other studies such as design of Seletar, Klang Gates, and the PMPs for dam projects in Batang Padang, Perak. In their opinion, as the Langat reservoir was less exposed to the northeast monsoon than the Seletar reservoir in Singapore and in additional, was at a higher elevation than the Klang Gates catchment, therefore, after due consideration and deliberation, the design storm of 432 mm was selected for 24-hour duration. On the other hand, for short intensity design storm, 190.5 mm was adopted for 1-hour duration.

125 B2 Klang River Basin Flood Mitigation, Kinhill/Ranhill, 1994

PMP study for the design of three reservoirs/dams in the upper catchment of Sg. Klang was carried out earlier in the 1960s by the dam designers, United States of Bureau of Reclamation (USBR). Subsequently another study on comprehensive flood mitigation program for Kuala Lumpur was commissioned a decade later. As part of the flood mitigation strategy, review on PMPs was commenced systematically for the existing Batu and Klang Gates dams. The derived PMPs were then presented vis--vis other major dam design studies in Malaysia. These two dams were a part of greater Kuala Lumpur flood prevention project, and they were designed for storing excess flood waters before discharged into Sg. Batu and Sg. Klang respectively. Subsequently over the years, they are also being used and functioned as primary water supply reservoirs by providing sufficient raw water sources to Sg Tua, Wangsa Maju and Bukit Nanas WTPs. The PMPs for both dams were derived based on the maximization of the storm records of Air Tawar School and Mersing during late 1970 to earlier 1971 as advocated by the Binnie and Partner (latter, SMHB) group. The rainfall records at that time were amongst the highest in the Peninsula. These two stations recorded the highest observed rainfall for long durations, i.e. more than 1 day in Malaysia. Table Below shows the PMPs for both Batu and Klang Gates dams and Inland PMPs for mostly long duration hour. Comparison of PMP for Batu, Klang Gates, and Inland Dams Duration Batu Dam PMP Klang Gates Dam PMP (hour) (mm) * (mm)* Inland Dam PMP (mm) ARF applicable 12 391 375 474 18 460 449 N/A 24 528 517 643 36 687 675 N/A 48 846 834 863 72 1164 1153 1067 * Data were originally obtained from USBR, 1984 and reproduced in the Kinhill/RHB (1994) report If assuming equal probability of occurrence of severe storm event could also be taken place in the Sg. Semenyih basin and also at the same time considering that both dams in Sg. Kelang basin were in close proximity and located in the same interior region of Selangor, the PMP values estimated by USBR in the design of both Batu and Klang Gates dams therefore can be transposed to other dam sites within the same geographical regions as well. As shown in table above, PMPs estimated by USBR was somewhat lower vis--vis SMHB/B&P inland PMP series especially for shorter durations of say less than 24 hour. However they were compared reasonably well as far as the long-duration PMP, 48- and 72-hour were concerned.

126 B3 Kelantan River Flood Study, SSP/SMHB, 1999

The derivation of PMPs was required for derivation of PMF for both Kemubu (on Sg. Galas) and Lebir (on Sg. Lebir) dams on each major tributary in the upper catchment of the southern Sg. Kelantan basin. Due to their relative larger sizes of the dam catchment, logically only long-term duration PMP, i.e. more than or equivalent to 1-day are of importance and was subsequently derived using hydrometeorological approach. By leaving the short duration PMP aside essentially circumventing the problems encountered on the scarcity of pluviograph or automatic recorder data on short-duration rainstorm in the whole Sg. Kelantan basin. The primary data source for the PMP study was extracted from the JPS database in the east coastal region of Peninsula, from Kelantan to the east coast of Johor. Extensive search of the JPS extreme rainfall database was performed and it was indicated that seven (7) major storms (Jan, 1967; Dec 1970, 1971, 1972, 1982, 1983, and 1986) in the east coast regions i.e. the states of Kelantan and Terengganu were of relevance. The maximization factors for various storms were estimated based on precipitable water ratio of a reference extreme dew point temperature at 27 oC. The 12 hours persisting dew point temperature ranges from 22.0 oC to 24.6 oC. Correspondingly, the maximization factors range from the lowest 1.23 (Dec 1972) to the highest 1.55 (Dec 1970). Explanations on the rationale of transposition factor were presented in the preceding section 2.1 or in the reference, SSP/SMHB (1999). Comparison of mainly long duration PMP is tabulated below. Columns 2 and 3 values are obtained after taking into consideration the transposition factors, 0.70 and 0.85 for Kemubu and Lebir dams sites respectively. Comparison of PMP of Kemubu, Lebir, and Selangor Dams Duration Kemubu PMP (mm) Lebir Dam PMP (mm) (hour) (1) (2) (3) 24 301 468 48 651 910 72 840 1190 96 980 1350 120 1100 1490 Col 2 and 3 values are obtained after taking into consideration the transposition factors The estimated PMPs for both dams were somewhat lower than the inland (and coastal) PMP series of SMHB/B&P. This was perhaps due to the larger catchment in the storm depth-catchment area relationship. The smaller the catchment area would have higher exposure to the spatial distribution of the storm precipitation. This is evidenced in the depth-area- duration curve shown in Figure 2 (DAD curve for envelopment of east coastal storm)

127 B4 Putrajaya: Perang Besar Reservoir, Angkasa-GHD, 1998

The PMP used in the main dam design in the new administrative center of the Government of Malaysia, Putra Jaya, was based on procedures outlined in the Bulletin 53, 1994 of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM), Australia. This procedure, as quoted ad verbum, is based on the Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) method, which is used extensively in Australia and the United States. Its basic assumption is that PMP is produced by large stationary thunderstorms positioned over the catchment. The method was developed on the basis of data colleted principally in the US, and assumed that the basis of data are similar throughout the world, and thus it is implicitly in a way considered applicable in Malaysia. The results of the short- and long-term duration PMP values adopted in the design of Perang Besar dam and compare with the Inland PMP of SMHB/B&P are tabulated below. Comparison of Prang Besar PMP and Inland PMP Duration PMP (mm) PMP (mm) (hour) Angkasa-GHD SMHB Inland PMP 0.5 250 N/A 1 N/A 188 3 610 300 24 1100 692 72 1400 1067 % Difference N/A N/A +103% +84% +31%

Comparing with the PMP values adopted by SMHB in the design of Sg. Selangor dam, it was obviously shown that the PMP values in Angkasa-GHD design were consistently higher than the inland PMP series. The difference was considerably prominent for the shorter duration PMP, i.e. for 3-hour and shorter duration by interpolation to a certain extent. In this regard, the Angkasa-GHD derived PMP was almost doubled that of SMHB/B&P. However for longer durations, says for both 24- and 72-hours, the difference somewhat reduced from more than 2 fold, i.e. +103% to +84% and +31% respectively. The vast difference in PMP magnitude estimated by ABM and SMHB/B&P is subject of contention amongst the hydrological groups in Malaysia. This leads to the question on the validity of adopting ABM in entirety (derived from adjusted storm data of both USA and Australia) PMP estimation in Malaysia remains controversial as obvious differences in meteorological condition is self-evident in the first place. From the past studies, many arguments were presented with regard to the adoption of ABMs PMP procedure in Peninsular Malaysia. Specifically, SMHB (1994) pointed out that (it) is in their (SMEC/ABM) judgement and professional opinions, it is valid to transpose generalized storm data from similar tropical regions of the United States and northern Australia to Peninsular Malaysia. On the other hand, different consultants/reviewers however held entirely different opinions and perceptions on the derivation of the PMP. This is evidently shown in Table 1, for the same projects

128 and studies, the PMPs estimated by various consultants could vary tremendously from one another.

129 B5 1999 Radar and Storm Model for PMP Estimation, Hardaker and Collier,

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the PMP in the tropics, an example quoted in the paper was a subcatchment of Sg. Terengganu, Sg. Petong catchment (CA=120 km2), using meteorological parameterized storm model of Austin et al (as quoted in the presentation, 1995) of UK Meteorological Office. In essence, most of the input data are obtained from the Doppler weather radar. Therefore, in a way that this proxy and indirect methodology offers an obvious advantage vis--vis the conventional maximization and transposition methods that requires bulk of measured rainfall records, primarily to construct a Depth-AreaDuration (DAD) curves for the largest storms ever recorded in the project area or at its vicinity. The preliminary results of the point PMP for 3-, 6-, 24-, 72-, and 120-hour duration were estimated. The authors concluded that the estimated PMP using weather data were of the same order of magnitude with the past studies (quoted from Mr. David Mcdonald, Chief Hydrologist of Binnie and Partners of UK). The authors however in their final remarks cautioned that the promising results obtained in their study were of preliminary nature so the adoption of such methodology was still pending and warranting a further in-depth investigation. For comparison purpose, the results are compared with the SMHB PMP values as listed in the following table. Comparison of PMPs of Hardaker & Colier and SMHB Coastal PMP Duration PMP (mm) PMP (mm) (hour) Hardaker and Collier 1999 SMHB Coastal PMP 3 484 338 6 593 440 24 818 777 72 924 1593 120 1029 2030 % Difference +43% +35% +5% -42% -49%

The variation between these two methodologies is rather significant, ranging from +43% to 49% of the PMP values adopted by SMHB. Specifically for long duration PMP values, the difference is significant by almost half of SMHBs. The exception was the 24-hour PMP that differed only by 5%. It should be noted that most of the east coastal extreme rainfall only occurred during monsoon months of November to Earlier January. This tropical storm surge, as it is preferably termed by the meteorological experts, is the results of a regional cold front that is originated from the northern hemisphere. This Siberian cold front reaches the equator sometimes at the end of the calendar year. The surge most likely lasts for several days. On the other hand, the storm cell model calculated in this study is based on localized storm mechanisms and to somewhat resemblance of a convective storm process. Therefore, it might be possible that this is the reason for which lower PMP values were calculated for longer duration of more than 24 hours.

130 B6 National Water Resources Study, SMHB/RHB/ZAABA, 2000

Hydrometeorological technique (maximization and transposition approaches) was used to generate generalized isohyetal PMP maps of various durations (3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 72-, 120-, and 168-hour) for Peninsula Malaysia. In this approach the maximum rainfall recorded for various durations (mostly acquired from PKM database) are maximized in situ using index of both prevailing dew point temperature during storm and historical records of the maximum persistent dew point temperature. Seven (7) isopleth maps for all durations mentioned above are then prepared accordingly. Cautions are taken into account when generating the isopleth as a differentiation should be made on the particular influence of Northeast Monsoon in the east coast. For brevity, the following table presents the point PMP values for all durations extracted directly from the isopleth maps at the Sg. Semeyih dam site. Comparison with the SMHBs PMP (both Coastal and Inland) values is shown in table below. Comparison of PMPs of NWRS 2000-2050 and SMHB Coastal and Inland Series Duration PMP (mm) PMP (mm) PMP (mm) % (hour) NWRS 2000SMHB Coastal SMHB Inland Difference 2050 Approx * 3 430 338 300 (261) +65% 6 590 440 391 (352) +68% 12 680 582 518 (474) +43% 24 820 777 692 (643) +28% 72 1300 1067 (1035) +26% 120 1500 2030 1360 (1360) +10% 168 1650 N/A N/A * choosing/interpolating to nearest contour as point value ( ) in col 3 indicates after applying the ARF After reviewing the long duration rainfall records, the investigators concluded that any storm coming from the northeast monsoon in the upper region of the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, i.e. Terengganu and Kelantan could also affect rainfall on the west coast as evidenced in the 1971 storm, one of the worst storm event that affected most part of Kuala Lumpur. The evidence of a storm closer to Johor Baru and Kuantan in the southeast of the east coastal region can somehow affect the west coast of the Peninsular Malaysia at the other side of the Banjaran Titiwangsa (main range) was rather vividly clear. Figure 3 shows the isohyetal map of 24-hour PMP for Peninsula Malaysia.

131 B7 Desa, Noriah, & Rakhecha. 2000, 2002, 2007 Humid Tropic Center (HTC) of JPS derived 24-hour PMPs for the State of Selangor by making use of the relatively long-term rainfall records in the JPS TIDEDA Database System. This study was essentially based on Hershfield technique using some 32 rainfall stations of varying years of records ranging from 34 to 62 years of long-term records to derive the 24-hour PMP for the state of Selangor. Subsequently an isohyetal 24-hour PMP was prepared. This study opined that that the recommended frequency factor (Km=15) by Hershfield (1965) was higher for Malaysia condition (WMO, 1986). A review of such nature i.e. in search of a common basis of the frequency factor is in line with the recommendation of WMO 332 (1986). Therefore an entirely new set of frequency factors was subsequently derived using observed one-day highest rainfall of various station records and vital statistics such as mean and standard deviation. The new Km values are ranging from low 2.0 to as high as 8.4. Figure 4 shows the isohyetal map of 24-hour PMP in the state of Selangor. Three (3) point PMP values are of importance for comparison purpose due to their proximities to the dam site and the upper Sg. Selangor basin. They are Ldg Escot (3615001), Hospital Kuala Kubu Baru (3516023), and Ldg Batang Kali (3416025). The calculated 24-hour PMP values are presented in the table below. Comparison of PMP (SMHB and JPS/HTC) Station Name Station No. 24-hour PMP using Km = 8.7 (mm) (1) (2) (3) Ldg Escot 3615001 378 Hospital KKB 3516023 367 Ldg Batang Kali 3416025 347 24-hour PMP using Km = 15 (mm) (4) 607 540 508

It is obviously indicated that the PMP value using Hershfield technique is some 50% lower than the PMP series (if choosing Km equal 8.7) adopted by SMHB in the Sg. Selangor dam design, i.e. 24-hour inland PMP of 692 mm. However if strictly following the recommendation outlined in the WMO 332 (1973; 1986) manual on the Km factor and no adjustment made to the mean and standard deviation of the maximum storm annual series, the results presented in column 4 of the table above are consistent and comparable to the SMHB PMP value vis--vis those of using a lower Km value. The statistical approach for any dam design assignments is always subjected to controversies, uncertainties and criticisms under the pretext that PMPs derived in this way is only representative of a point PMP value. Furthermore the length of records that is used to derive the statistic oftentimes is rather short to be statistically meaningful (Hersfield suggested a minimum of 20-year records by Hershield, as quoted in WMO [1986]). As a result, some significant rainfall event might be missed out entirely due to non-recording or error in instrumentation. In addition, another important point that is subjected to further argument is the conversion from point PMP to areal PMP, which is usually accomplished by

132 applying a reduction coefficient (Areal Reduction Factors; ARFs) based on both the size of the catchment and the chosen duration. For longer durations and smaller catchment areas, the reduction factor is approaching unity. The ARF curves are mainly derived by U.S. National Weather Services (NWS) and presumably using mostly storm information in the continental USA. Thus the validity and subsequently suitability of such ARF factors application in Malaysia is again doubtful. Although there was a study undertaken by the JPS in the mid 1980s, however the results were inconclusive as the ARFs derived in this study were based on very short records and therefore should be used with caution (Ong and Liam, 1986). Furthermore, the author also explained the fact that the ARF is considered rather low for tropical climatic condition such as in Malaysia where the storms are mostly of Blitz type thunderstorm and short duration nature. This probably explained low ARF factors vis--vis the US National Weather Services (NWSs). Subsequent work was also carried out for the state of Johor in the southern tip of the Peninsula using the same methodology. Figure 5 shows the isohytal map for 24-hour PMP storm distribution through out the state of Johor, which comprises of several major river basins, such Sg. Johor, Sg. Muar, and Sg. Batu Pahat.

133 B8 Interstate Raw Water Transfer, Nippon-Koei/SMHB 2000

This study was an independent review and appraisal on the substantial bulk of works that had been carried out previously in the Kelantan Flood Mitigation Study (SSP/SMHB, 1999) on the adoption of PMP values for preliminary Kemudu and Lebir dam design. The purpose of this segment of the overall feasibility study for interstate water transfer from Pahang to Selangor was to adopt PMP values in the design of both Kelau (CA=331 km2) and Telemong (CA=360 km2) dams in the interior region of Pahang. A good practice of verification of the past studies was normally carried out during the course of the deriving appropriate PMP values for the purpose of dam design. Selection of the storm event records in the east coast was logical as most of the severe storm events in Malaysia occurred in the east coastal region (Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, and Northeastern Johor) during northeast monsoon starting from November till the middle February. Eight major storms mostly in the east coast regions of Kelantan and Terengganu during Northeast monsoon were identified for the preparation of Depth-AreaDuration curves (DAD). These were the most severe storm events occurred throughout the instrumental sampling/recording period from as earlier as in the 1950s. As previously mentioned, selection of storm data for PMP derivation was due to the fact that most of the severe storms in Peninsular Malaysia were taking place in the east coast region during prevailing northeastern monsoon. Each individual DAD curve was prepared using about 20 to 30 station records in the vicinity of the storm epicenters. Both auto and manual recorded rainfall values were utilized though in general, the auto-record data is scarce in the regions notwithstanding with only relatively short period of records. Long-duration PMP i.e.24- to 48 hour was then derived after appropriate adjustment for unrestricted values. The PMP values were then enveloped, maximized and transposed to the inland dam sites that are closer to each other. Similarly, short-term PMP for less than 24-hour was also derived albeit using different approach for reason explained earlier on the scarcity of auto-recording rainfall stations in the east coast region as a whole. Therefore it was not being able to develop the DAD curves for shorter duration from the amount of data available. In such case, recourses are then made to adopt the short duration PMP derivation based on procedure developed by Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM, 1985). This technique is in turn, a procedure based on the method of adjusted United States data as explained in earlier subsection. Studies on the maximum enveloping values between these two continents (although of relatively different climatological characteristics nevertheless lend support on the adoption of the vast USA database in Australia continent, ABM, 1985). It was concluded that pattern and nature of occurrence of short duration storm are the same between these two continents of almost the same longitude. Based on this similar argument, the short duration PMP methodology developed by joint US and Australian meteorologists could be also used elsewhere in the Southeast Asia region.

134 Essentially it assumes that the extreme rainfalls for short durations and small area will be produced by large, efficient, and virtually stationary thunderstorms or from part of a meso-scale or synoptic-scale storm system with embedded cumulus cells (as quoted ad verbatim from NK/SMHB, 2000; cf WMO, 1986). As a check on the PMP values derived from the hydro-meteorological approach, the estimated PMP values using Hearshfield technique were at least in the same order of magnitude. Nine (9) rainfall stations in the vicinity the project site were used. The results of 24-hour point PMP are comparable, ranging from 410 mm to highest 637 mm. These are compared with the areal PMP at both dam sites, i.e. 625 mm and 615 mm for Kelau and Telemong dam sites respectively. Table below shows the comparison of PMPs derived in the Interstate Water Transfer vis-a-vis SSP3 projects, the latter is representative of the Sg. Semenyih basin as both basins are in the state of Selangor and are exposed to the similar meteorological and climatic factors. . Comparison of PMP Derived from Interstate Water Transfer Project vis--vis SSP3 Duration Kelau dam Telemong Inland PMP ARF Adjusted (hour) CA=331 dam Selangor km2 CA=360 Dam 2 km 1 270 260 188 0.75 141 2 310 300 N/A 0.87 N/A 3 370 350 300 0.90 261 6 480 460 391 0.92 352 12 530 520 518 0.93 474 24 625 615 692 0.95 643 48 905 895 908 0.97 863 72 1050 1040 1067 N/A 1035 120 N/A N/A 1360 N/A 1360 N/A not available for duration more than 72-hour; * inland PMP If conservatively assuming that the PMP values for both Kelau and Telemong dams can be transposed in toto to the Selangor dam site without further adjustment, the PMP values for all durations except for shorter duration, are closely comparable. However it should be borne in mind that, this is nevertheless a conservative approach by assuming that both maximization and transposition factors are the same for the dam catchments at both sides of the Banjaran Titiwangsa (main range of the Peninsular Malaysia). This in essence implies an equal opportunity or probability of extreme storm occurrence in both the east and west coasts notwithstanding the nature of storm. Dominant storm in

135 the west coast region is often of the convective nature, which is typified by very intense and heavy precipitation that last for a short duration, i.e. 2 to 6 hours and oftentimes occurs during the two intermonsoon periods (from April to May and October to November). While in the east coast region of Peninsular Malaysia and the coastal region of Sabah and Sarawak, the monsoon storms during November to January are prevalent and predominant and they are widespread as well as could last for a longer period, from several days to a week. However it does not preclude the occasional occurrence of such long duration storm or surge as preferably termed in the meteorological communities in the west coast. . Anecdotal observation of the historical concurrent extreme storm events in both east and west coasts of the Peninsula Malaysia seemed to prove otherwise (as evidenced by less devastating flood consequences and lesser rainfall). With the exception of well documented 1971 storm event in the west coast, hardly any significant storms of the same order of magnitude on a par with 1971 in latter years occurred in the west coast. The consensus amount the hydrologists within the SMHB/B&P groups on the transposition of east coast storm to the sheltered inland or west coast (by crossing the Banjaran Titiwangsa) without appropriate transposition factors are considered as unduly conservative (SMHB, 1992). To quote an example, the transposition methods used in the Kelantan Flood Mitigation Feasibility Study (SSP/SMHB, 1999) were based on ratios of 1-, 5-day total rainfall.

136 B9 Short Duration Rainfalls in Selangor, Desa and Rakhecha 2002

This recent study undertaken by Humid Tropic Center HTC was an extended study on earlier 24-hour PMP derivation in Selangor and mainly focuses on the short duration extreme rainfall. The purpose of this study was to provide pertinent information on the characteristics of short duration rainfalls for the design of small and moderately sized hydraulic structures in the urban areas. This implied that the study was more of concern of low probability occurrence of extreme rainfall, such as in the range of return periods from 2- to 100-year. This study in essence, was a collation and documentation of the highest auto recorded rainfall event for short duration in Selangor without further analysis to derive PMPs. Therefore, at this preliminary stage, it did not take into consideration of converting these observed rainfall records to PMPs by conventional maximization technique using meteorological parameters. Short duration of auto-recording rainfall data from 1971 to 1999) of 13 recording rainfall stations in the state of Selangor are compiled in the respectively tables. The severity of the extreme rainfall event was quantified as percent chance of occurrence (or represented by return period in standard and conventional hydrological practices). In the records, the stations in the state of Selangor received heavy falls of rain of the order of 42 to 106 mm in 0.25 hour, 60-183 mm in 0.50 hour, 73 to 365 mm in 1 hour, 114 to 522 mm in 6 hour, and 132 to 523 mm in a 12-hour duration. In terms of duration, the maximum rainfall converged to about 6 hour, which is evidently represented by some 90% of the rainfall in the previous time periods. In the opinion of the authors, the prevailing extreme rainfall events were mostly of short duration nature. In addition, it was also revealed that a majority of top 20 highest storm events were mainly occurred during the inter monsoon season from April to May and October to November. Table below summarizes the highest recorded rainfall for different durations. Highest Records Extreme Rainfalls for Various Durations in Selangor No Name of the rainfall station Duration (hour) 161 Pejabat Pos Manggis 42 60 73 119 2 Ibu Bekalan Enam Kaki 96 96 96 114 3 Pintu Kawalan P/S Teluk Gong 91 183 365 522 (1) 4 Setor JPS Kajang 54 71 89 165 5 Puchong Drop (2) 55 61 91 126 6 Pusat Penyelidikan JPS Ampang 54 68 96 125 7 Sek Keb Kg Lui (4) 99 99 142 197 8 Rumah Pam JPS Paya Setia 64 68 112 163 9 Setor JPS Tanjung Karang (5) 74 74 87 174 10 Kg Kalong Tengah (3) 68 68 76 226 11 Loji Air Kuala Kubu Baru 106 106 106 154 12 Ibu Bekalan Sg. Bernam 62 85 104 147

12154 169 523 171 316 136 197 169 175 227 154 165

137 13 Rumah Pam JPS Bagan Terap 101 102 102 132 132 Excerpt from Desa and Rakhecha (2002); ( ): ranking in terms of highest rainfall When comparing the highest rainfall records vis--vis adopted PMP value at Selangor dam, it should be in mind highest recorded point rainfalls in table above do not take into account of conventional PMP derivation technique of storm maximization (irrelevant for transposition in the context). The implication of these findings was far reaching in such a way that a reassessment of the short duration PMP rainfall in Selangor was most likely warranted. From table above, it could be seen clearly that the first, second, and fifth highest recorded rainfalls for 12-hour duration were located some distances from upland catchment except for Sek Men Kg. Lui and Kg. Kalong Tengah station. Comparison of these observed upland basin highest rainfall records vis--vis the Selangor PMP is imperative to ensure that the PMP convention of SMHB/B&P is indeed adequate. Table below summarizes highest records of rainfall stations in the upper catchment in Selangor. Setor JPS Kajang and Sek Keb Kg. Lui are located in the Sg. Langat basin, while the other two, Kg Kalong Tengah and Loji Air Kuala Kubu Baru stations are within the upper Sg. Selangor catchment downstream of the Selangor dam. Comparison of Selangor Dam PMP and Higher Rainfall Records in Upper Catchment Duration Setor JPS Sek Keb Kg Kg Kalong Loji Air Selangor Dam (hour) Kajang Lui Tengah Kuala Kubu CA=197 km2 Baru 54 99 68 106 71 99 68 106 1 89 142 76 106 188 2 N/A 3 300 6 165 197 226 154 391 12 171 197 227 154 518 The comparison in table above apparently is not in anyway unreasonable and indicative of underestimation of the Selangor PMP by SMHB. If the observed highest values are maximized by some coefficients, say, 50% higher due to moisture saturation in the upper planetary boundary (by measuring the maximum persistent dew point temperature and storm dew point temperature) do not exceed the PMP values except 1-hour duration rainfall of Sekolah Kebangsaan. Kg. Lui station. Figure 4 shows the 1-day PMP for the state of Selangor. Only the highest rainfalls recorded for almost all durations in the downstream and near the coastal region, such as Puchong Drop and Tanjung Karang, are exceeding the Selangor PMP. It is not known at present the reasons of such highest PMP values due to limitation on the knowledge in the area of expertise of meteorology. However, this is not in anyway to ignore such highest records in the lower catchment where no major water detention structures are most likely to be located especially in the state of Selangor.

138 Nevertheless, counterchecking with neighboring stations is imperative to ascertain if these values are not isolated event in the vicinity.

139 B10 Kelinchi Dam, SSP/MM 2001

The PMP derivation was part of the Kelinchi dam design study by SSP/MM (2001). The Kelinchi reservoir is located within the upper catchment of Upper Muar reservoir that serves as additional storage for raw water sources for Terip WTP in Seremban. The major purpose of the reservoir is to facilitate water transfer across the mountain range (via tunnel) to the Sg. Terip WTP. Besides, it is also served as extra holding for raw water via pumping from upper Muar resrervoir downstream. PMP was used to derive the PMF for spillway design. Table below is extracted from the design report on PMP derived based on Hershfield technique. Comparison of PMP Upper Muar Dam Duration (hour) 3.5 6.5 12.5 24.5 Excerpt from SSP/MM 2001 SSP dam review (2003) reported a 24-hour PMP value of 700 mm was used in the reservoir routing exercise. Nevertheless the figure is agreeable to the Semenyih PMP. In line with the recommendation by Hershfield on the derivation of Km factor, SSP/MM (2001) slightly modified the Km values in their computations. This is accomplished mostly by the reduction of Km with increased annual maximum rainfall in the 2600 stations that were used in the original derivation of the Hershfield equation. The Km factor is lower for short duration, i.e. 13 is adopted for 3- and 6hour duration respectively. It is however, a blanket adoption/envelopment of such adjustment might not be warranted in the humid tropic region, such as in Malaysia. This is due to the fact almost 90% of the data selected by Hershfield in the derivation of statistically based equation were from temperate climate such as USA. As such, if no reduction is made on the Km factors, the calculated PMP could be even higher than those tabulated above (see column 4). While taking into the conservative assumption into consideration, the recommended Km factor of 15 was used without any justification of downward adjustment. PMP (mm) Kelinchi Dam Duration (hour) 315 400 525 689 3 6 12 24 120 PMP (mm) 337 394 521 692 1800

140 B11 Gelami Dam Design JPS, 2002

The proposed Gelemi reservoir/dam is a rather small scheme water supply for the aquaculture research station in the upper Sg teriang basin in Negeri Sembilan. The proposed dam site is located on Sg. Gelami, one of the tributaries of Sg. Teriang basin. The hydrology division of the JPS had carried out the detailed PMP study as part of the assignment for engineering spillway design. The methodology adopted in this study was of similar statistical approach of Hershfield (1965) with some modification to the derivation of the frequency factor, Km. The modification was based on a research technique published in Water Resources Research (Koutsoyannis, 1999). Other than Km modification, the estimation by JPS also made appropriate conventional adjustments for mean and standard deviation of the maximum rainfall annual series for individual duration. For information, the Km factor for most of the standard derivation as per recoomendation of WMO was 15 world wide as this was the highest enveloped value in the original Hershfield analysis (WMO, 1986). The modification by Koutsoyannis, (1999) was to recalculate the Km factors for various durations based on robust statistical technique, L Moment. As a result, the estimated Km factors for various durations were as low as 10.4 for 0.25-hour duration to as high as 17 for longer duration, i.e. 120 hour. For comparison, for a 24hour duration PMP, Km is adjusted slightly upward to about 16 vis--vis 15, that is normally in statistically based PMP studies. Due to its close proximity to Sg. Semenyih basin, i.e. neighboring basin, comparison of PMP vis--vis those adopted in the Semenyih dam design is considered reasonable. The PMP for selected durations are summarized in table below. Comparison of PMPs of JPS (2002) and SMHB Inland Series Duration Modified Km PMP PMP (mm) % Difference (hour) factor (mm) SMHB (JPS, 2002) JPS Inland (2002) ((1) (2) (3) (4) 3 12.394 315 300 (261) 6 13.645 356 391 (352) 12 14.958 460 518 (474) 24 15.947 598 692 (643) 72 16.679 774 1067 (1035) 120 16.974 941 1360 (1360) ( ) in col 3 indicates after applying the ARF (5) 5.00% -8.95% -11.20% -13.58% -27.46% -30.81% PMP (mm) without Xn and Sn adjustment JPS (2002) (6) 412 461 540 664 1069 1312

With the exception of 3-hour duration PMP, the estimated PMPs by JPS using modified version of Hersfield methodology were mostly lower than SMHB, they were varied from as low as 9% to as high as 30%. As mentioned above, the designer adopted adjusted mean and standard deviation in the calculation. This adjustment essentially lowered both the mean and standard deviation of the maximum rainfall annual series for reason of shorter length of records vis--vis recommendation in WMO 332 (1986).

141 If assuming that no adjustments were to be made, the estimated PMP for each duration would then be slightly higher than before. For such purpose, the recalculated PMP values without adjustments were shown in column 6 in the same table as shown above.

142 B12 Kelinchi Dam Feasibility Study, SSP/SMEC, 1990

In this report, short duration PMPs were calculated at each potential dam site using the Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABM; Bulletin 53) generalized approach for tropical region. As previously compared with other studies in Malaysia, in general the ABM estimates were always higher than PMPs vis--vis using other techniques that are being practiced in Malaysia. The estimated PMPs were also adjusted by the elevation/moisture inflow barrier and dew point/maximum atmospheric moisture factors. The adjustment procedures could be further referred in the BOM bulletin 53 for short duration PMP estimation (recent amendment of PMP was made in 1996 and issued as Bulletin 53). The estimated PMPs by BOM were tabulated in the following table for comparison with the Selangor PMPs (also applicable to Sg. Semenyih basin) for similar duration periods. Short Duration PMP for Various Dam Sites in Negeri Sembilan Duration Kelinchi Sikamat Teriang Gelami (Hour) dam dam dam dam 1 (mm) (mm) (mm) (mm) 1 349 352 342 342 2 627 634 611 611 3 836 848 816 816 Calculation based on ABM short duration methodology

Gelami Selangor dam 2 (mm) (mm) 352 188 634 N/A 848 300

143 B13 Jemelan Reservoir, Jurutera Perunding Zaaba (JPZ), 1998

The project comprises a small reservoir/dam development and its appurtenances on Sg. Jemelan, Jerebu, Negri Sembilan. The small reservoir selected drains only about 7.2 km2 of Teriang Forested Reserve. For a smaller catchment, the PMP estimates of interest to the derivation of PMF were of shorter duration, i.e. less than 1-day, for example. This was primarily due to the fact that the flood peak rise in a shorter time due to its relatively smaller catchment size and shorter time of concentration The PMP was estimated using statistical approach, presummedly Hershfields statistically methodology. Table below shows the PMPs calculated up to 24 hour and the percentage distribution to the shorter durations.

PMP in Jelebu Negeri Sembilan Rainfall duration (hour) 3 6 12 1-day Excerpted from JPZ (1998) Relationship of PMP PMP (%) (mm) 67% 83% 94% 100% 322 399 452 481

Slightly lower PMPs were estimated for 12-hour and 1-day durations vis-vis the inland PMP series that was representative of the Semenyih basin. However for shorter durations such as 3 to 6 hours, the differences between both studies were basically marginal and on the same order of magnitude. The significance of this review was that the proposed Jemelan reservoir site is in close proximity (located in the southward direction) to the existing Semenyih dam/reservoir site. The adopted PMPs for proposed Jemelan reservoir/dam could therefore provide excellent insight/comparison on diversity of opinion on the PMP derivation for engineering end eavors in Malaysia.

144

APPENDIX C: coefficient for HP11

(Attach the table C1 to C3 in the following pages)

145

Table C1

Table C2

146

Table C3

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