NUCLEAR PORLIFERATION

ccocotou

TITLE
IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM; MYTH OR REALITY SUBMITTED TO: SIR, MOHAMMAND SADIQ SUBMITTED BY: TUFAIL NASEER (DSS-2ND) DATE: 11-06-2012

OUTLINE Introduction 1- Background 2- Iran quest for a Bomb 3- Iran and the West 4- Role of IAEA 5- Impact on region and International politics Conclusion

Introduction
The Iranian nuclear program has been a controversial issue since 2002.the western countries especially America and its Allies are more concerned about the nuclear program of Iran. The united state of America and other western countries with Israel have the view that Iran have secretly build Uranium enrichment facility in Natanz and heavy production in Arak.They see Iran as existential threat of the western world. The Iranian nuclear program started during the tenure of shah in 1974.but it was delayed due to the Iranian revolution. It halted the program. After Ayatollah Khomeini came to power. There was clear indication that Ayatollah reluctantly halted the weapon program, according to him that these weapons are immoral. During the Iran and Iraq war, bushehr I and II .these were again reconstructed .He started the program in late 1984. But the program has become more controversial in nature in the tenure of current president; Mahmud Ahmedinejad.The successive administration in US sought Iran as a potential threat to the US and its allies and its forces in the Persian Gulf. Iran doesnt have the indigenous expertise, so she is reliant on the other countries that are Japan, Russia, and Germany. However, Iran denies these allegations and says that it nuclear is for peaceful purpose. Since the revelation of Iran nuclear program, there has been series of visit to Tehran. But the IAEA was not given satisfactory report of the progress. Some official acknowledge that due to the internal dynamic of bureaucratic politic that could not present much report to the IAEA. The Iranian public is a staunch supporter of the government to make to make nuclear weapon. The government is of the opinion that if they quit the nuclear program, then the hardliner will replace the government.

The US is especially to determine to have limited military strike on nuclear facilities. The first issue after the American military strike will emerge is that if the military strike become successful, then there are chances that the Iran will revive its nuclear program once again and she will be more determined than ever before? The second issue may arise that whatever the capabilities Iran has, she will use it against the US and its Allies. She can use the non-state actor like Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestine and Lebanon and challenge the Palestine-Israel peace process. She could make active the entire Shia group in Iraq and these groups can be a hurdle in state building in Iraq. There may be attack on US forces in Afghanistan and in Middle East .there could be attack on US citizen on all over the world. The world would be much safer if there wont be any nuclear weapons. Iran may be near to make the nuclear weapons. The Iranian government has been denying that they not been involved in enriching uranium for weapon purposes. The American with their Allies fears that the Iran has the fundamentalist government who can be very fatal to the American and its Allies. The American is going to have pre-emptive strike on the Iran facilities. There have talks between the Iranian official and US. The IAEA has been the party which has been allowed to have partial inspection of the facilities. The recent visit of IAEA gave no result. The Talk between the officials did not give any fruit. The IAEA inspector are been allowed to inspect the Area.

1- BACKGROUND
The Iranian nuclear program was started during the era of Raza shah Pahlavi in 1974.the program was abrupt due to the Islamic revolution in 1979.Shah did research on production of fissile material and it was suspended due to the Iran and Iraq war. When Ayatollahs Khomeini came in power, he did not start the program in late 1984 because he was of the opinion that these weapons are immoral, so that they should not be made. In 1987 and 1989, the busier I and II were damaged by the Iraqi air strikes.1 The Iranian scientist conduct research on eight known facilities scattered at different part of the country. The Russian have provided Iran with two 440 mw reactor to do research and in development. The other countries like china, North Korea, Germany and Great Britain. The Iranian have applied three method of enriching uranium and experimented with separating the plutonium. If Iran continued work on the centrifuge machine then the Iran will face problem in production of fissionable material. Iran has dug underground tunnel where uranium hexafluoride can be formed. The facility at Isfahan is capable of converting Uranium hexafluoride into uranium metal. The CIA official have clearly classified that Iran has not involved in clandestine nuclear program, but also Iran is very near to the final product. According to them that the first indigenous prototype bomb was ready for test in late 2005.According to Washington post report that Iran could have reached the point of no return. It is said that Iranian nuclear program is more advance it was thought by the western world. Iran has covertly done all her program so that to make it far from the approach of the western world. The scientist of Iran does research on different work assigned to them. They

J.Venture, Al, Iran nuclear Option, Tehran quest for bomb. (Philadelphia:Casmate,2005),p.90

are helped by some western countries. Iran has hired expertise from the western countries that can help them in the making of nuclear weapon

2- IRAN QUEST FOR A BOMB

The bureaucracy and Iranian official have been involved in nuclear project and they are committed to make the Iran a de, facto nuclear state. Those who are against the making of nuclear weapons are of the opinion that the international situation is not favorable, so that it is very wise to wait. While on the other hand, USA and Israel talked of military strike to eradicate the program. This kind of option makes the will of the official stronger who want to make nuclear weapon2. The desire to make a full-fledged nuclear fuel cycle is not new. Iran has been accumulating scientist and expert and has developed considerable infrastructure. Research has been taking place at various locations. On Natanz, the reprocessing is being conducted and they have been detected by the modern detection method. It is significant that these development has taken place and been done very shortly. After the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the other leader and mullah of Iran excerpted from the Holy Quran, saying that to harness nuclear weapon whether civil and military purpose. In 1989 former premier Ali Akbar rafsanji said that Iran cannot ignore the reality of the nuclear weapon in the world so she is committed to make either biological weapon or chemical weapon. 3

Kibaroglu, Mustafa, Good for the Shah, Banned for the Mullahs: The West and Iran's Quest for Nuclear Power, Available at, http://www.jstor.org/stable/4330247, Accessed on, 11, may 2012
2
3

Ibid,

Iran has been trying to acquire foreign weapon of mass destruction expertise and technology for instance Pakistan was asked for giving centrifuge machine technology. Pakistan was also ready to train the Iranian nuclear scientist near Islamabad the other countries are also involve in training the Iranian scientists. Argentine was one of the countries who approached Iran to help her to build nuclear weapon in the chaos surrounding Irans nuclear weapon programs the west is aware the Tehran has been most active in developing nuclear weapon materials, enriched uranium and plutonium. There is good reason that mullahs are making the choice to associate with creating a practical device to separate the lighter fissile U-235 from a heavier U-238.4 It has been judged by the development and equipment that were required, it was clear that there nuclear program was double headed, the implosion bomb and simple gun type weapon system. An Israeli diplomatic source indicated that there is not been given much attention to the institutions like IAEA in the past. The IAEA focused on the issue since the beginning of the 2005. Iran depend itself by presenting the article IV of the IAEA, that no country can stop her to make nuclear technology for peaceful purpose .she also argue that being the member of nuclear non-proliferation she has the legal right to make use of nuclear technology for peaceful purpose. The Iranian official also argues that whatever is being done in Natanz is not the violation of rule but the failure of IAEA. The clandestine nature of Iran nuclear program and the work in this field causes strong reaction in the US.5

4 5

Pipes, Deniel,Clawson, Patrick, ambitious Iran, troubled neighbor Available at ,

http://www.jstor.org/stable/20045501, Accessed on,25,april 2012

Molavi, afsbin, Buying time in Tehran. Available at, http://www.jstor.org/stable/20034133,

Accessed on, 26,April 2012

The united state of America said that the secret making of Natanz plant, were the clear indication of the Iran intention of making nuclear weapon. The Iraqi offensive in the Iran oil refineries, on port in the Persian Gulf made it clear to the cleric and official of Iran that the weapon of mass destruction plays a vital role and make a decisive difference in war. The Iranian cleric becomes shocked by the power of modern technology. From the cleric perspective the Reagan administration had helped the Iraqi government against Iran. The cleric were of the opinion that if the Iran government had these weapon technology, the US would think twice before the interjection of its navy in the Persian Gulf.

3- IRAN AND THE WEST

Where not in the world the American has not projecting its imperial power, whether it is done arrogantly, forcefully, aggressively and destructively. Hence, the main problem to the America is that how to counter Iraq and Iran. In case of Iran, the America will think when and how it should be left to their people completely. In case of Iran USA is thinking of a policy to engage or confront Iran. As the latter option from the statement of the American official who always want to confront Iran and talks of military strike.6 The US is wanted to prepare itself for the air strike if the talk between the countries fails. The Experts are of the opinion that the USA may in his colonial rule as lack the capability of subtleties and attributes. But today the political conditioned are not very much receptive for manipulation as they were in the days of British rule.

Tarock, Adam, Iran nuclear programme and the west. Available at,

http://www.jstor.org/stable/4017729, Accessed on,30, April 2012

When America was going to attack Iraq, the same rhetoric came from the Washington just like the rhetoric coming for the pre-invasion of Iran. The Vice president dick Cheney said that if Iran continue `to rest on his present stance, the international community will impose serious consequences on it. The secretary of state said that Iran is the banker of terrorism and she does not feel much threat collectively from any country in the then Iran.7 There are many harsh issues which kept the countries away from each other; the most pressing current issue is the Iran nuclear program. The Washington is pressing Iran to abandon its uranium enrichment program, and they said that it will lead to making a nuclear weapon. It is the US which said fifty three back that she has saved Iran from fanatics but now she is saying that save Iran from the fanatics. According to USA, a nuclear Iran is a threat for America and western interest in the region. The western country has their interest in the region, so they are very worried about the nuclear program of Iran. Iran president Mahmud Amedi-nejad made the world surprise in mid 2006 when he said that they are going to join the nuclear technology club and she has enriched uranium to 3.5 levels. Tehran is working to make its enrichment facility to the industrial level but she says that they have to make it 93% or more for making a nuclear weapon.8 For instance, if Iran quit his desire for a nuclear bomb, the hostility between the two countries will remain as the Iranian use a Manichean term for America Satan or evil. There is no room for compromise between the good America and evil Iran or good Iran and Satan America. In a brief period the attempt of American failed because she did not give incentive like lifting the sanction against her.

7 8

Ibid .Venture,Al, Iran nuclear Option, Tehran quest for bomb, op.cit, p. 110

4- THE ROLE OF IAEA

IAEA played a very vital role in discussing the Iran nuclear program. The brought the additional protocol to be sign by Oct 31,2003, when they found that Iran is secretly having nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak.. The IAEA director General Mohammad ElBaradei and a group of inspector made frequent visit to Iran designated and suspected site.9 They also visited the military base in parchin near Tehran. Since then series of report has been published by IAEA.tin their report they highlighted that in the year 2003, Iran action did resulted in the breach of IAEA safeguard. They further appreciate Iran that Iran has corrected those breeches. The IAEA become focused on the issue throughout 2005.on August1, 2005, the Iranian government notifies that they are going to resume uranium conversion at Esfahan. The IAEA said to Iran that the seal which was removed should be re-instated again. The Iranian government did not listen to the agency. IAEA passed some resolution that in order to have a full transparency in the nuclear issue. The IAEA continuously cautioned Iran to suspend all enrichment related and processing activities. The IAEA said to Iran that they have no confident on the Iranian government that they do not want to develop fissile material production capability. The IAEA board of governor requested the Director General that the report should be given to UNSC to implement the resolution on Iran after March 2006 Board meeting.10 The leading three members countries of EU foreign ministers made a visit to Tehran on November 15, 2003. The German had a historic visit to Iran before the deadline given by the IAEA to sign the additional protocol. The three EU member countries met periodically to find a

Kibaroglu, Mustafa, Good for the Shah, Banned for the Mullahs: The West and Iran's Quest for Nuclear Power , op.cit, p. 23 10 Ibid, p. 25

solution of the confrontation with Iran. After their meeting Iran become voluntarily agree to suspend her all enrichment facilities and plutonium separation. These agreements become effective for one year. The EU and Iran also emphasized that legally obligatory upon Iran to suspend her uranium enrichment. They also said Iran can enrich uranium without any discrimination as per the rule of NPT. In this way, the EU used diplomacy to solve the problem through negotiation rather than resorting on force. The US is of the opinion that these meeting are just waste of time and Iran is being given time to make weapon. The negotiation between Iran and the EU countries came to halt in spring 2005.this account for two reasons. Firstly, after voluntary suspending her enrichment, she could not become satisfy Iran. The second is that there were presidential election were being held. The EU was waiting to see who would to office, if there could be change in nuclear policy. When Ahmedinejad came to power, he used strong statement about Israel. He becomes committed to resume the enrichment facilities. The held meeting with themselves and consulted US as well. After these, EU clear the way for IAEA to take the Iran dossier to UNSC.

5- IMPACT ON REGION AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

If Iran becomes a de facto nuclear weapon state, the countries like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Syria may consider their nuclear option.Dr.richard Russell from national defense university says, "from Iraq's perspective, even with Saddam Husain gone, a nuclear Iran will pose an acute security dilemma. It will cause think of nuclear alternative as Iran can use it as a political card to pressurize Iraq.11 The traditional gulf rival Saudi Arabia may tempt to make an option for nuclear bomb. Egypt has close security relationship with US but she can think of nuclear alternative. Egypt no more feels prestige on Arab politics. A nuclear Iran is another insult to its prestige. Syria is isolated, insecure, and vulnerable from Israel to the south. She is also ambiguous of the future of Iraq. These problems may provide incentive for Syria to make nuclear weapon. Turkey and Iran did not have dispute since 1930 but it does not mean that they have cordial relation. They have difference in geographical location, demographic structure and military capablity.If Iran develops nuclear weapon, then the power will dramatically shift to Iran. Developing nuclear weapon has not been the option of Turkey but if America fails to convince Iran of not forgoing her nuclear option, then the Turk new may be compelled to see the nuclear alternative.12 On the other hand, some scientist and intellectual think opposite of what is being perceived. They think that nuclear Iran would bring stability and peace in Middle East. The proponent of this view argues that Iran will behave more rationally and will soften its hard line rhetoric about

Tsoran, Zvi, The Impact of the Iranian nuclear program on the Middle East. Available at,www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/Get TRD?AD=ada469126, Accessed on, 5, May,2012
11 12

Ibid, p16

Israel. According to Kenneth waltz, that states behave more rationally after acquiring nuclear weapon because they fear the possible effect of nuclear exchange.13 Those scholars who support the view of having nuclear weapon, they based their argument on cold war period. They say that both the power had the second strike capability, but they could do so because of massive nuclear exchange which could have caused massive destruction The proponent of afore-mentioned view must take some point into consideration. The first impact on Iran nuclearization will give a serious blow to the reputation of nuclear nonproliferation regime. NPT has undergone a very harsh time during the issue of nuclearization of North Korea which declare to have nuclear weapon in April 2005. This is very harmful for the world if NPT get weaker. The other state will seek to acquire nuclear weapon. The geographical size of the Middle East region with comparison to cold war rival, US and USSR is so small. The parties involved in cold war had very low distance and they could not have time to think. The region like Middle East has very far distance. So, there is lead time to prevent a hot confrontation. The nuclear weapons have far-reaching effect which does not need any explanation. To prevent a nuclear war, it needs an elaborate command and communication within the state and between the states. One cannot say that Iran and Israel will achieve a viable degree of communication.14 Even if state acquire the second strike capability, they put restrain on their political decision. There can always be a risk of unintentional warfare. There will be misperception, miscalculation or technical failure in weapon system or command and communication system.

13 14

Venture,Al, Iran nuclear Option, Tehran quest for bomb, op.cit,113 Ibid,p.115

CONCLUSION:
At last, the research topic is concluded with these words that Iran may not be near to make a nuclear weapon. The much of American attention goes to Arab-Israel conflict. The possibility between Iran and Iraq that they should allowed fulfilling their security need through conventional level. If both of them think that they will meet theirs national objective without first use, then there will be small logic of taking risk of second strike. The US has been the harsh critics of Iran nuclear program when it was found that there is Iran is secretly enriching facilities in Natanz and Arak the US is going to stop Iran to make nuclear weapon. But the international community wants to solve the problem through peaceful talk but the American are willing to use limited military strike to stop Iran. She may act alone or may be accompanied the trusted Allies, Israel. There are conflicting recommendations that what should US do. Some suggest that America should have sticky policy toward Iran to make stop her ambition. Some other suggests that America should engage and persuade Iran that it is not their national interest to have nuclear weapon. Iran become insistence to make nuclear weapon.USA and other western put diplomatic pressure on Iran. Iran voluntarily suspended its for a very short until January 2006.the united state of America can have three option to stop from becoming a de facto nuclear weapon state. The first that can do is the Regime change in Iran, a regime that favors America and renounce making nuclear. Secondly, US can have limited military strike on the nuclear installation of Iran to take nuclear program back to several years. Third point is that US should engage Iran diplomatically and use stick policy.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
J.Venture, Al, Iran nuclear Option, Tehran quest for bomb. (Philadelphia:Casmate,2005) Kibaroglu, Mustafa,

Good for the Shah, Banned for the Mullahs: The West and Iran's Quest for

Nuclear Power, Available at, http://www.jstor.org/stable/4330247, Accessed on, 11, may 2012 Pipes, Deniel,Clawson, Patrick, ambitious Iran, troubled neighbor Available at , http://www.jstor.org/stable/20045501, Accessed on, 25, April 2012

Molavi, Afsbin, Buying time in Tehran. Available at, http://www.jstor.org/stable/20034133, Accessed on, 26,April 2012
http://www.jstor.org/stable/4017729, Accessed on, 30, April 2012

Tarock, Adam, Iran nuclear program and the west. Available at,
Tsoran, Zvi, The Impact of the Iranian nuclear program on the Middle East. Available at,www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/Get TRD?AD=ada469126, Accessed on, 5, May,2012