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NationalWeatherService Wakefield,VA
TheNationalWeatherService(NWS)providesweather, hydrologic,andclimateforecastsandwarningsforthe UnitedStates,itsterritories,adjacentwatersandocean areas,fortheprotectionoflifeandproperty andthe enhancementofthenationaleconomy. NWSdataandproductsformanationalinformation databaseandinfrastructurewhichcanbeusedbyother governmentalagencies,theprivatesector,thepublic, andtheglobalcommunity.
Answer3BasicQuestions:
1)WhatHappened?TypeandMagnitudeoftheEvent 2)Whendidithappen?...Also,eventduration. 3).Wheredidithappen?LocationReferencedto City/Town,PortionofCounty,MajorIntersection a)Lat/LoninfoisGREAT...butnotneeded.
How can we make these bad statements better ?? think of some examples
ProblemsSpottersEncounter
LimitedVisibilityduetoblockageby trees,hills,buildings,etc. Understandingthebigpictureofwhat isgoingonaroundthem. Mobileaccesstoradardata(improving). Judgingdistancestoweather phenomenagenerallyunderestimate.
ReportingHailSize
ReportStormDamage
April 28, 2008 Suffolk,VA
ReportFlooding
Flood Damage Urban Flooding
Rural Flooding
High Water
FromaPlaceofSafety
LettheNWSknow whatyouobserved,to helpprotectothers!
CALL US !
1-800-737-8624
LightningSafety
Warningsarenotissuedforlightning.
Ifyourecloseenoughtohearthethunder,youreclose enoughtobestruckbylightning!
Instability
= Heat and Moisture Shear = Increasing Speed & Veering (Clockwise turning) with height (SE S SW) Lift = An upward forcing of air
10 km 8 km 6 km 4 km 2 km
2-10 km Shear
(Moller et al. 1994; after Browning and Ludlam, 1962)
Lifting mechanisms
Warm & Cold Fronts large-scale lifting Low Pressure Areas draw air in and lifts it Dry Line dry air undercuts moist air
Thunderstorm Outflow cold air flowing out from a storm undercuts warm air Hills / Mountains
Lift is needed
Forcingofairupwardbysomemechanism
Coldfront
Warmfront
Fundamental Definitions
What Makes a Thunderstorm Severe ?
Damaging Winds 55-60+ mph Hail at least 1 inch in diameter (Quarter Size) Trees or power lines down, structural damage, etc. from wind or tornado
Severe weather rarely happens without any warning! Forecasts define broader areas of severe weather potential Warnings pinpoint exact timing/location.
BEFORE the Storm, Monitor: Hazardous Weather Outlook
Check the forecast several times daily, to see if you areor will be at risk for severe weather.
Convective Outlooks from the Storm Predictions Center TV and NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio for Watches and Warnings
NWS Doppler radar images are available on the Internet at: radar.weather.gov Click on the radar button from AKQs web site: weather.gov/akq
Radar Products
http://radar.weather.gov/
Base & Composite Reflectivity
Shows Energy returned to radar Higher Reflectivity from heavy rain/ice Composite Reflectivity= highest reflectivity in lowest 4 elevation scans
Reflectivity
Base reflectivity
dataforthelowest(0.5degree) elevationslice. Now well see a composite reflectivity image from the same time
Composite Reflectivity
Highest Reflectivity in lowest 4 elevation scans. Higher intensity returns were above the lowest (0.5 degree) base reflectivity slice.
Velocity
BaseVelocity
Productthatputsthe DopplerinDoppler Radar OneDimensional Velocity Motion Toward orAway FromRadar MotionTowardthe Radarin GREEN,Away fromtheRadarinRED
BaseVelocityExample
Base Velocity
Dual-Pol Radar
AKQ/DOX upgraded in late Winter 2012 Available in GR2Analyst Software Will Assist in Forecast/Warning process with:
Improved Precipitation Estimation Tracking Heavy Rainfall Ability to classify areas of Snow, Rain and Hail Ability to confirm Tornado on the Ground within 60-70 miles of radar (Tornado Debris Signature)
MultipleCellStorms Linear(SquallLine)
ModeratetoStrongShear,MoistureandInstability
RadarCrossSection
Anvil
Updraft
Shelf Cloud
Inflow Notches
Outflow Boundaries
TornadicSupercellEvolution
A. Early Stage
Meso Low
Series of Boundaries
BREAK TIME!
A cornucopia of indices *
Convective Inhibition (CIN)* Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) Bulk Vertical Wind Shear* Total Vertical Wind Shear* Storm-Relative Wind*
Showalter Index (SI) Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT) Lifted Index (LI)* CAP Strength (700 mb LI) Lapse Rate (LR)* Relative Humidity (RH)* Lifted Condensation Level (LCL)* Level of Free Convection (LFC)* Equilibrium Level (EL)* Wet Bulb Zero (WBZ) Melting Level (MLT) Warm Cloud Depth (WCD)* Precipitable Water (PW)*
HI = Haines Index* HMI = Hybrid Microburst Index LSI = Lid Strength Index Bulk Richardson Number (BRN)* DCI = Deep Convective Index Bulk Richardson Number Shear (BRNSHR) TQ Index = for low-topped instability
Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) Vorticity Generation Parameter (VGP)* Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP)
Normalized CAPE (nCAPE)* Wind Index (WINDEX) Dry Microburst Index (DMI) Theta-E Index (TEI)
Significant Tornado Parameter (STP)* Significant Hail Parameter (SHIP) Significant Severe Parameter (SSP) Strong Tornado Parameter (STP)
Microburst Day Potential Index (MDPI) Wet Microburst Severity Index (WMSI) Mesoscale Convective System Forecast Index (MCS Index) a recent index published in WAF (2007) This list is not nearly
exhaustive!
The Result?
Paralysis by analysis!
Types of Thunderstorms
Single Cell
Weak updraft (non-severe or severe)
Multicell Cluster
Moderate updraft (nonsevere or severe) Moderate threat
Multicell Line
Squall Line
Supercell
Intense updraft (Always severe) Mesocyclone Rotating updraft High threat
Slight threat
Multi-cell Thunderstorms
Ordinary non-organized storms with low severe threat
Multi-cell Thunderstorms
Ordinary non-organized storms with low severe threat
Squall Line.
What to expect Strong and
Supercell Thunderstorm
Contains a rotating
Supercell
Main Features Overshooting Top
Anvil
Rotating Updraft
Mesocyclone
Supercell Thunderstorm
3 Types of Supercells
Classic
High Precipitation
Low Precipitation
Supercell
Main Features
N
Rear Flank Downdraft
Downdraft
Wall Cloud
-Supercell ThunderstormsRear Flank Downdraft (RFD) This indicates an area of downward rushing air and at times just precedes the development of a tornado.
FFD
Gust Front
Storm Motion
RFD
Hook echo
T
Anvil Edge
T
Hook echo
Supercell Thunderstorm
(top view)
Nautical miles
10
HP Supercell
HP Supercell
N
Light Rain
Looking west
Heavy Rain
Generally, there is not a good spot to view this type of storm since it is wrapped by a rain shield.
HP Supercell
HP Supercell
LP Supercell
(Most Common West of the Appalachians)
LP Supercell
Shelf Cloud
Gust Front
Viewing angle
(top view)
Supercell Thunderstorm
miles
10
Wall Cloud
Movement
Tail Cloud
Wall Cloud
Flanking Line
Updraft
Overshooting Top
Wall cloud
Understanding Rotation
Understanding Rotation
In order to generate a tornado, a storm needs two basic things 1. Time it must persist for an appreciable time long lived updraft that doesnt get choked by downdraft.
Wind Shear
Directional wind shear Speed wind shear
Shear
Weak
Strong
Tilted Updraft & downdraft are separated, so they coexist. Therefore, the storm lives longer.
Supercell Structure/RFD
Due to favorable shear, the downdraft does NOT contaminate the updraft!
Secondary downdraft forms at rear of storm called the Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD)
UPDRAFT
RFD
(Top view)
RFD
Wall Cloud
Rain/FFD
(Looking northwest)
RFD
Wall Cloud
Signs of Rotation
Mesocyclone Development
Rotating updraft within the Rain-Free Cloud Base Present with all Supercells! How does mesocyclone develop and how can it last for 1 hour or more?
Mesocyclone
Mesocyclone gets it energy from vertical wind shear concentrated in the lowest 10,000 feet of the atmosphere
Video
Tornado
Wedge
Funnel Clouds
Rotation aloft
Report Funnel Clouds If funnel extends more than half way to ground, circulation may likely be in contact watch closely!
Funnel Clouds
Some funnels can form without a Supercell (Cold Air Funnels) No wall cloud - usually weaker Less lead time (if any); WATCH unlikely
This was simply low hanging cloud elements attached to the front of the shelf cloud. No rotation was present. ALWAYS look for rotation!
Tornado
Shelf Cloud
Kiptopeke, VA - 081508
Shelf Cloud
Outflow
Outflow
SHELF CLOUD
Copyright Mike Umscheid
What is this?
WALL CLOUD
E-mail address:
akq-report@noaa.gov
QUESTIONS ?
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