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6 Consum er

M ega trends
2009

Ralf Matthaes
managing director
TNS Vietnam
MARCOM
February 18, 2009
6 Megatrends for Vietnam...
1. Credit & Crisis 2. Consumer Concerns 3. Shift in Advertising

4. Branding &
Social Recognition 5. Evolving Technology 6.Socio-Economic Shift
3 Megatrends for Vietnam...
3. Shift in Advertising
1. Credit
2. Consumer &Concerns
Crisis
Credit & Crisis
GDP per capita evolution - USD
In USD
1,200
1,024 1,075
1,024
1,000

835
800
725

600 552

402 440
400
289

200

0
1995 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 Est.

Vietnam’s GDP has doubled in 4Economic


Source: Vietnam yearsTimes – KINH TE 2007-2008
Source: GSOVN
Growth of Finance Instruments
87%

38%
29%
20%

9%
2%

Bank accounts ATM usage of bank ccount Credit card ownership


owners
2006 2008

Modern western style banking is on its way, creating faster spend


Source: TNS VietCycle – 1999-2008
Personal investments 2007-2008
15 14% 14%

12

6%
6 5%

0
Invested in Stock market Bank Loan
(Jun 07 - Jun 08) (Jun 07 - Jun 08)

Total Household Wealthly AB household


HCMC/HN HCMC/HN

Due to downturn in the stock and real estate markets, consumer


will be looking for new avenues spending, saving and investing
Source: TNS VoP
Self Protection from Economic Downturn

Save my money 50 27

Hold off on purchase


19 24
of big ticket items

Look for new money


15 25
making opportunities
stprotention
1st
1 Priority
2nd
2ndprotection
priority
Home improvements
4 7
and not buy new home

Other protection 12 17

Saving money, reducing spend on big ticket items and looking


for new money making opportunities are the main ways
consumers intend to protect themselves from the global recession
Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Credit & Crisis
Summary
Though GDP is at an all time
high, due to the declining
stock and real estate markets,
saving money will help banks
reduce the impact of the
financial crisis and
speculation , but overall
spend shall reduce
substantially in 2009.
Consumer Concerns
Quality of product and value for money

The Chinese Milk scare could be felt for years and


will make consumers more quality conscious
The forecast in the next 12 months
Far better A little better Same A little worse Far worse Don't know

Environmental pollution 5 22 9 27 36 0

Value of the VND 6 13 25 43 11 1


Worse
Employment 6 20 28 37 9 1

The cost of living 6 22 31 33 7 1

Vietnam's Economy 10 35 18 29 6 2

Roads and transportation infrastructure 15 43 12 18 12 0

Water Treatment 13 33 34 14 60

Electric Power 14 34 33 16 3
Better
Foreign investment 12 38 22 16 3 9

My personal standard of living 9 27 46 16 1


0

Vietnam's intellectual property compliance 18 39 26 6 2 10

Vietnam's International Image 21 50 18 51 6

WTO compliance 16 42 21 51 16

Telecommunication 34 45 16 312

Pollution, the value for the VND, employment, cost of living shall become worse in
the next 12 months. Transportation infrastructure, telecoms, WTO & intellectual
property compliance, VN’s international image appears to becoming much better

Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09


Employment forecast in the next 12 months
Far better A little better Same A little worse Far worse Don't know

TNS Consumer Poll -


6 20 28 37 9 1
Jan. 09

TNS VietCycle - Sept. 08 12 42 36 8 11

TNS VietCycle - Nov. 06 10 36 35 16 21

Vietnamese unemployment fears have risen substantially in 4


months from 9% in September 2008 to 46% in January 2009

Source: TNS VietCycle 2006 / 2008 & TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
My personal standard of living forecast
Far better A little better Same A little worse Far worse Don't know

TNS Consumer Poll -


9 27 46 16 10
Jan. 09

TNS VietCycle - Sept. 08 16 54 25 41


0

TNS VietCycle - Nov. 06 18 48 32 20

Vietnamese personal standard of living forecast for the next


12 months has dropped from 70% forecasting a better living
standard in September 2008 to only 36% in January 2009
Source: TNS VietCycle 2006 / 2008 & TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Will you reduce spending in 2009?

Don’t
know
2%

No
46%
Yes
52%

Over half of consumers shall reduce their monthly spending in 2009

Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09


2009 Consumer spend reduction?
Less Same More Don't know

Entertainment & dining out 82 15 31

Home appliances (Wash machine, TV Hifi, etc) 53 44 3

Household utilities 52 45 31
decrease

Personal equipment (mobile phone, laptop ,Etc) 51 43 51

Communications telephone/ fax/ email 45 47 8 1

Personal care products 43 50 70

Transportation 43 51 6

House hold care products 43 51 51

Food & beverages products 29 65 7


Same

Health care products/ services 23 55 21 1

Education 7 49 43 2

Entertainment, Dining out, home appliances, household utilities &


Personal equipment shall see decreases in spending, while education
seems to be the only sector to experience increases in spending
Source: TNS Consumer Confidence Poll – Jan. 09
Consumer concerns
Unemployment,
personal standard of
living, value for money
and quality of product
will be main concerns
for consumers in 2009.

The value of the VND


and cost of living are
also key concerns.
A Shift in Advertising
Advertising spend breakdown
2008 A-T-L advertising spend = US $542,693,846 Ad spend growth
Internet (est.) 2007-2008
Magazines 0.4% Radio = 54%
8%
Magazines = 35%
Newspapers TV = 18%
,
16% Newspapers = 10%
Total 18.2%

Radio
0.6%
TV 75%

TV Radio Newspapers Magazines Internet (est.)

Though still very small, radio & internet hold great


potential for advertisers
Source: TNS Media Co.
Vietnam online Advertising Market ($M)
10% 80

9%
Online Advertising 70
8%
Internet Users 60
7%

% of ATL Advertising 50
6%

5% 40

4% 30
3%
20
2%
10
1%

0% 0
2007E

2008E

2009E

2010E

2011E

2012E

2013E

2014E
Internet provides a new and cheap source of advertising

Source: VinaGames Projections


Mobile music usage – By country
59
55
42 47
50 50
47 47 46
45
43 43
35 39
32 42
31 36 39 32
16 28
35 33
22 23 24
20 28 28
25
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7
97

9
85
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45

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6
68

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Using digital MP3 player on phone Using AM/FM radio on phone Nett - Using mobile music

Huge opportunities exist for Radio in Vietnam via Mobile

Source: TNS 2007 GTI


A shift in media
mediums summary
Ad spend is slowly but
surely moving more
towards Internet and the
radio, though TV is still
King.

In time of recession you


need to ensure you ad
spend works for you
2008 - 2009
Why we need your help?
TNS Vietnam shall donate all proceeds of the sale of this
book, save for production costs, to UNICEF’s Ninh Thuan
Province Child Protection Program.

The intent is to raise at least US $40,000 from the sale of


TNS Pink Pages.

Please help the Children of Ninh Thuan Province.


Thank You / Cam On

ralf.matthaes@tns-global.com

pinkpages@tnsglobal.com