DAILY I FOREX REPORT 5TH JUN 2013

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HEADLINES

European Forex Traders Distracted By Asian And Australasian Action US Dollar Correction May Extend on Supportive Fed Rhetoric

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3095 TGT 1.3115/1.3135 SL 1.3065

The US Dollar mounted a spirited recovery in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appears to be a retracement in the context of yesterdays aggressive selloff, which yielded the largest single-day decline in close to a year. This followed a dismal ISM Manufacturing print that weighed against Federal Reserve QE reduction bets, sending the greenback lower and offering a boost to risk appetite. Looking ahead, a quiet economic data docket in European and US trading hours puts the spotlight on scheduled commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers Esther George and Sarah Bloom Raskin. Both are current members of the rate-setting FOMC and traders will be keen to parse their commentary as expectations for a tapering of QE asset purchases continue to evolve. Between Ms. George and Ms. Bloom Raskin, the rhetoric on offer is likely to fall on the neutral-to-hawkish side of the policy spectrum. That may weigh on sentiment and further support the US unit. Technical positioning points to a broader bearish outlook however. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar took a beating in Asia having outperformed over the preceding 24 hours, underscoring the corrective nature of Asia-session price action. Indeed, the key bit of event risk on the day the RBA interest rate decision didnt produce adiscretely significant response from price action. The Japanese Yen likewise came under selling pressure as the Nikkei 225 stock index mounted a sharp rebound, weighing on the local haven unit. Japans equities benchmark added over 2 percent, putting in for the strongest single-day performance in close to a month.

SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.30 TGT 99.10/98.90 SL 99.60

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5345 TGT 1.5365/1.5385 SL 1.5315

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3070 HIGH: 1.3095 LOW: 1.3052 CLOSE: 1.3091 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0007(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 42(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 99.74 HIGH: 100.42 LOW: 99.33 CLOSE: 99.88 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.04(BWARI SIGNAL) RSI => 44(BEARI SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5321 HIGH: 1.5343 LOW: 1.5283 CLOSE: 1.5301 GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 64(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8530 HIGH: 00.8558 LOW: 00.8522 CLOSE: 00.8555 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.00005(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>37(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 82.7030 HIGH: 82.8920 LOW: 82.6030 CLOSE: 82.7300 USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0291(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 42(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Jun 2

18:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Gives Graduation Speech at Princeton University AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAY) JPY Capital Spending (1Q) JPY Capital Spending excl Software (1Q) AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAY) AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (MAY) AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (MAY) CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (MAY) AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (APR) AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Inventories (1Q) CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAY) USD Fed's Yellen Speaks on Regulation in Shanghai JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAY) AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (MAY) AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAY)

Low

23:30

Medium

43.8

36.7

23:50

Medium

-3.9%

-5.5%

-8.7%

23:50
Mon Jun 3

Medium

-5.2%

-5.4%

-7.2%

00:00

Low

-1.2%

-0.5%

00:30

Low

0.2%

0.3%

00:30

Low

2.2%

2.1%

01:00

Medium

54.3

54.5

01:30

Low

-2.4%

-1.7%

01:30

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

-0.4%

01:30

Low

3.0%

1.5%

-0.5%

01:30

Low

-0.6%

0.0%

0.2%

01:45

Medium

49.2

49.6

50.4

01:50

Low

05:00

Low

-7.3%

2.0%

06:30

Low

87.0

85.5

06:30

Low

-8.6%

-7.3%

07:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (MAY) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY) USD Fed's Williams Speaks in Stockholm USD Markit US PMI Final (MAY) USD Construction Spending (MoM) (APR) USD ISM Manufacturing (MAY) USD ISM Prices Paid (MAY) USD Revisions to Construction data back to Jan. 2011 USD Total Vehicle Sales (MAY) USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAY) GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (MAY) JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAY) JPY Monetary Base End of period (MAY) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAY) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAY)

Medium

52.2

50.8

50.2

07:45

Low

47.3

46.2

45.5

07:50

Low

46.4

45.5

45.5

07:55

Medium

49.4

49.0

49.0

08:00

Medium

48.3

47.8

47.8

08:30

Medium

51.3

50.3

50.2

11:20

Low

12:58

Low

52.0

52.0

14:00

Medium

0.9%

-1.7%

14:00

High

50.7

50.7

14:00

Medium

49.5

50

14:00

Low

21:00

Low

15.10M

14.88M

21:00

Low

11.95M

11.76M

23:01

Low

1.3%

-2.2%

23:50

Low

23.1%

23:50
Tue Jun 4

Low

155.3T

Low

0.3%

1.1%

Low

2.5%

2.0%

01:30

AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (1Q) AUD Australia Net Exports of GDP (1Q)

Medium

-9000M

-14678M

01:30

Low

0.8

0.6

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (APR) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (JUN 4) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (APR) USD Annual Revisions of the International Trade Report USD Trade Balance (APR) USD ISM New York (MAY) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (JUN) USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in New Mexico NZD Value of All Buildings s.a. (1Q) GBP BRC Shop Price Index (MAY) AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (MAY) USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Monetary Policy in Toronto NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAY) AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q) CNY HSBC Services PMI (MAY) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY F)

Medium

-0.6%

04:30
LIVE

High

2.75%

2.75%

08:30

Medium

49.6

49.4

09:00

Low

-0.2%

-0.2%

09:00

Medium

0.3%

0.7%

12:30

Low

-0.60B

0.02B

12:30

Low

12:30

Medium

-$41.0B

-$38.8B

13:45

Low

58.3

14:00

Low

50

45.1

17:30

Low

22:45

Low

1.8%

23:01

Low

0.4%

23:30
Wed Jun 5

Medium

44.1

00:00

Low

01:00

Low

12.6%

01:30

Medium

0.8%

0.6%

01:30

High

2.7%

3.1%

01:45

Medium

51.1

07:45

Low

47.5

47

07:50

Low

44.3

44.3

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (APR) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 31) USD ADP Employment Change (MAY) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (APR) USD Non-Farm Productivity (1Q F) USD Unit Labor Costs (1Q F) USD Factory Orders (APR) USD USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (MAY) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 31) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY

Medium

49.8

49.8

08:00

Medium

47.5

47.5

08:00

Medium

47.7

08:30

Medium

53.2

52.9

08:30

Low

-$1149M

09:00

High

-0.2%

-0.2%

09:00

High

-1.0%

-1.0%

09:00

Low

-0.4%

09:00

Low

-1.1%

09:00

Low

-0.1%

09:00

Low

-0.2%

-0.1%

09:00

Medium

-0.6%

-2.4%

11:00

Low

-8.8%

12:15

Medium

170K

119K

12:30

Medium

-2.3%

8.6%

12:30

Low

0.7%

0.7%

12:30

Low

0.5%

0.5%

14:00

Medium

1.4%

-4.0%

14:00
LIVE

Medium

53.5

53.1

14:30

Low

3000K

14:30

Low

335K

31) 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 31) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 31) USD US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 31) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 31) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 31) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 31) AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (APR) JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (MAY) EUR French ILO Unemployment Rate (1Q) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAY) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAY) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY) GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (MAY) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (APR) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (JUN 6) GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUN) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAY)
Low

-1514K

14:30

Low

1851K

18:00

Medium

23:50

Medium

-1117.3B

23:50

Medium

-104.9B

23:50

Low

-457.2B

23:50

Low

27.4B

Thu Jun 6

01:30

Medium

180M

307M

02:00

Low

8.54

05:30

Low

10.6%

07:15

Low

0.1%

0.0%

07:15

Medium

-0.6%

-0.6%

07:15

Low

-0.1%

07:15

Medium

-0.4%

08:30

Low

-41

10:00

Low

-1.0%

2.2%

10:00

Medium

-0.2%

-0.4%

11:00
LIVE

High

0.50%

0.50%

11:00

High

375B

375B

11:30

Low

-6.0%

11:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (JUN) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (JUN 6) EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (JUN 6) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economy in Boston USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 1) USD Continuing Claims (MAY 25) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (MAY) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 31) USD Household Change in Net Worth (1Q) AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (MAY) JPY Official Reserve Assets (MAY) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAY)

Low

50.2

11:45
LIVE

High

0.50%

0.50%

11:45
LIVE

High

0.00%

0.00%

12:00

Low

12:30

Medium

345K

354K

12:30

Low

2986K

14:00

Medium

55

52.2

14:30

Low

88

16:00

Low

$1174B

23:30

Medium

35.2

23:50
Fri Jun 7

Low

$1258.0B

Low

14.8%

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (APR P) JPY Leading Index (APR P) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (APR) EUR German Current Account (euros) (APR) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (1Q) EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (MAY) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAY)

Low

94.9

93.8

05:00

Medium

98.6

97.9

06:00

Medium

17.0B

18.8B

06:00

Low

13.0B

20.2B

06:00

Low

0.8%

06:00

Low

-0.8%

0.5%

06:00

Low

2.9%

06:00

Low

0.8%

06:30

Low

A$49.8B

07:00

Low

433.6B

08:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (APR) GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (APR) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (APR) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (APR) USD Unemployment Rate (MAY) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (MAY) USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAY) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAY) USD Change in Household Employment (MAY) USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAY) USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (MAY) USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (MAY) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAY) USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAY) CAD Unemployment Rate (MAY) CAD Net Change in Employment (MAY) CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAY) CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAY) CAD Participation Rate (MAY) CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

-8800

-9056

08:30

Medium

-3700

-3470

08:30

Medium

-3000

-3130

10:00

Low

0.3%

1.2%

10:00

Medium

-0.8%

-2.5%

12:30
LIVE

High

7.5%

7.5%

12:30
LIVE

High

168K

165K

12:30

Medium

175K

176K

12:30

Low

3K

0K

12:30

Low

293

12:30

Medium

13.9%

12:30

Low

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

Medium

2.1%

1.9%

12:30

Low

34.5

34.4

12:30

Medium

12:30

High

7.1%

7.2%

12:30

High

18.0K

12.5K

12:30

Medium

36

12:30

Low

-23.6

12:30

Low

66.5

12:30

Low

0.1%

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (APR)

Medium

$14.000B

$7.966B

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