Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| June 5, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| June 5, 2013

Highlights
US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $40.3 billion in April. Spanish Unemployment Change declined by 98,300 in last month. UKs Construction PMI gained by 1.4 points to 50.8-mark in May. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of expectations that US Federal Reserve will reduce its stimulus measures as the economy is showing signs of progress. US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $40.3 billion in Apr April as against a earlier deficit of $37.1 billion a month ago. Investor's Business Daily (IBD) / TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism rose by 3.9 points to 49-mark mark in June from rise of 45.1 45.1-level in May.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (July13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5919.5 19545.8 15177.54 1631.4 17135.5 1989.5 58497.8 13533.8 93.31 1397.10 22.40 7430.8 102.09 0.0 Prev. day -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.5 0.0 0.2 2.1 -0.1 -1.0 0.0 1.1

as on June 4, 2013 WoW -2.7 -2.4 -1.5 -1.7 -0.1 0.5 3.7 -0.1 -1.8 0.4 -0.2 1.7 -2.9 MoM -0.9 -0.6 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.8 4.8 -8.4 -2.4 -5.2 -6.2 -5.3 -0.5 -0.6 YoY 22.3 6.9 25.4 27.6 32.9 2.0 9.5 63.1 11.1 -13.3 -21.1 1.2

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the later part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, expectations ectations that US Federal Reserve will trim its bond buying program also supported an upside in the currency. The currency touched an intra-day day high of 83.0 and closed at 82.80 on Tuesday. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of favorable economic data from the US.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index 82.80 56.48 56.65 56.67 Prev. day 0.1 0.3 -0.59 -0.56 WoW -1.1 -1.6 1.21 1.26

as on June 4, 2013 MoM 0.6 -4.4 4.74 4.81 YoY 4.2 -1.5 1.70 1.74

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.5 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of restrictions imposed by the central bank of India which eased the concerns over the coun countrys current account deficit. Additionally, upbeat domestic market sentiments in the early part of the trade supported an upside in the currency. The currency touched an intra-day high of 56.40 and closed at 56.48 against dollar on Tuesday. However, sharp upside was capped as result of strength in the DX. Further, weak global markets in the later part of the trade restricted positive movement in the Rupee. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.81.90 crores th ($14.60 million) as on 4 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.83,123.20 crores ($15,338.40 million) till 4 June 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, expectation of unfavorable services PMI data from the country will exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

valid for June 5, 2013 Trend Support 56.45/56.25 Resistance 56.80/57.05

US Dollar/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

Sideways

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| June 5, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated marginally by 0.01 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of favorable Spanish unemployment change data. Further, mixed global market sentiments also acted as a positive factor for the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day day high of 1.3101 a and closed at 1.3078 against dollar on Tuesday. . However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of strength in the DX. Spanish Unemployment Change declined by 98,300 in May as against a earlier fall of 46,100 in April. European Producer Price I Index (PPI) declined by 0.6 percent in April from previous decline of 0.2 percent a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp arp downside can be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of expectations of favorable economic data from the Euro region. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 73.90/73.70 74.25/74.50 valid for June 5, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3078 73.75 74.1 Prev. day 0.0 0.2 0.05

as on June 4, 2013 WoW 1.2 -2.5 2.29 MoM 0.0 -3.9 4.37 YoY 4.7 -6.1 7.03

74.1

0.08

2.32

4.41

7.09

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5312 86.367 86.58 Prev. day -0.05 0.05 -0.536 0.536 -0.31 0.31

as on June 4, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated marginally by 0.05 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of strength in the DX. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day day low of 1.5271 and closed at 1.5312 against dollar on Tuesday. However, sharp downside was capped as a result of f mixed global markets coupled with favorable construction data from the country. UKs Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) gained by 1.4 points to 50.8-mark in May as against a rise of 49.4-level level in April. British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price ice Index fell by 0.1 percent in May from rise of 0.4 percent in April. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of weak global market sentiments along with stronger DX. However, sharp fall in the currency will be prevented d or reversal can be seen as a result of expectations of upbeat economic data from the country. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 5, 2013 Support 86.40/86.20 Resistance 86.80/87.0 GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

WoW 1.4 2.46 2.31

MoM -1.5 3.09 3.00

YoY -0.4 0.82 1.09

86.61

-0.29 0.29

2.33

3.02

1.17

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| June 5, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.5 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day day low of 100.41 and closed at 100 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for June 5, 2013 Support 56.50/56.35 Resistance 56.80/57.0 Last 100 0.563 56.62 56.58 Prev day 0.5 -0.90 -0.27 -0.37 as on June 4, 2013 WoW -0.9 2.79 3.19 3.10 MoM 0.7 3.61 2.58 2.50 YoY 27.7 -20.73 -20.52 -20.61

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 5, 2013

Indicator Spanish Services PMI Italian Services PMI Services PMI Retail Sales m/m ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Factory Orders m/m Crude Oil Inventories Beige Book Country Euro Euro UK Euro US US US US US US Time (IST) 12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 5:45pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 11:30pm Actual Forecast 45.3 47.5 53.1 -0.2% 171K 0.7% 53.4 1.6% Previous 44.4 47.0 52.9 -0.1% 119K 0.7% 53.1 -4.9% 3.0M Impact Medium Medium High Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium

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