LANDSIDE HAZARD IN MUZAFFARABAD, AZAD KASHMIR CAUSES & IMPACTS (A case study of village Dhanni)

Nasir Hameed Siratuallah Nadir Mahmood

Supervised by: Prof. Dr. Mahmood-ul-Hassan

Introduction:
Landslides, defined as the mass movement of rock, debris or earth down a slope (Cruden, 1991). Landslides form a significant component of the natural hazards that affect most of the hilly regions round the globe. Recent studies on global landslide disasters indicate that some of the highest risk landslide disaster zones are located in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, Pakistan, China, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 sq. km area was found to be more than one. It has also been observed that casualties resulting from landslides hazards are not evenly distributed throughout the world, but are more concentrated in developing countries, partly due to their higher population densities and lack of preparedness.

Risk Assessment Matrix for Azad Jammu & Kashmir

Source: NDMA

Hattian Bala rock avalanche, >1000 fatalities, 2005 earthquake.

Source: Dunning et al, 2006

Justification of study:
Landslides in the study area are recurrent phenomena which cause losses of life and property, damage to natural resources and infrastructure including roads, bridges, telephone / electric lines etc. this leads immobility of goods and services leading to huge loss of revenue to the government. In order to reduce the losses, this study has been carried out to put forward suggestions for the mitigation of landslide hazards.

Research Objectives:
Followings are the objectives of the study: To map the landslides in Muzaffarabad and the surrounding area. To identify the major causes of landslides in the study area. To study the impacts of landslides in the area. To prepare the Landslide Hazard Zonation map of Muzaffarabad

Data collection techniques, their purpose and sources:

People perception, About causes, impacts Questionnaire survey
Primary data General observations (Photography) Causes and impacts inflicted by Landslide

Field survey

Field survey Thematic layers , Raster analysis e.g, DEM & LSHZ

Satellite Images (2.5 meters) Slope, Aspect, Contours, Relief maps,

DATA Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 30 meters

AKMIDC Department, Muzaffarabad GoAJK

United States Geological Survey (USGS) website

Layers e.g, settlements roads, hydrology, etc

Topographical Sheets 43 F7 & 11 at 1:50,000 Scale Lithology, Faults etc Geological Sheets 43 F7 & 11 at 1:50,000 Scale Secondary data Detail investigation of the study area

Land Use Planning Dept, Muzaffarabad GoAJK.

NCEG, University of Peshawar, Peshawar

High resolution images

Causes and Effects LSHZ

Google earth

Research articles, Reports

Internet, Institute s library

Rainfall and temperature of study area

Key:
Data utilized
Climatic data

Meteorological Department, Muzaffarabad, GoPK. Landslide effects, Population statistics

Purpose Sources
Damages data, DCR

Deputy commissioner Office, Mzd. AJK

Digitization ArcGIS package Raster analysis 3D visualization

Software

Data analysis

Tabulation MS. Office package

Description

Presentation

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LANDSLIDES AROUND MUZAFFARABAD

Study area general Introduction

Absolute location: Latitude 3424'6.978"N to 3424'6.881"N Longitude 7328'8.73"E to 7329'14.49"E 5 sq.km
2,700 feet

Area:
Elevation:

Population: Avg. annual rainfall: Temperature:

1,244 (projected 2010 from DCR 1998) 1363 mm (Met. Dept, Mzd) Mean minimum (January) Mean maximum (June) 2.65 oC 36.75 oC

Geology:

Muzaffarabad formation (Lime stone, dolomite) silt, sand, gravel

Physiography of the study area

Pirchinasi
9560 feet
River Jhelum

Domel

Muzaffarabad 2200 feet

River Neelum

Bird eye view Village Dhanni

Image Source: Google Earth

Major natural causes of landslides in the study area

Active seismicity Llithology and faults Slope Rainfall Hydrology Aspect

Respondents perception about causes of landslides

60.0
50.0

50.0

40.0

Percentage

30.0

20.0

18.6

10.0

10.0

5.7

7.1

5.7

2.9 0.0

Causes

Source: Questionnaire survey

Respondents response regarding season of occurrence of landsliding

70 63 60

50 Percentage

40

30

27

20

10

7 3

Winter

Spring
Season

Summer

Autumn

Source: Questionnaire survey

Plate boundaries in the South Asian region

Source: Encarta atlas

Pre earthquake image of the study area (2002)

Post earthquake image of the study area (2010)

Name of Formation Lithology Murree Formation Sand Stone, Silt Stone, Shale , with subordinate intra formational conglomerate and lenses of limestone hard, rubbly Limestone & Dolomite, Few parts of MZD Formation it also contain carbonaceous limestone and shale horizons Hazara Formation Surficial deposits

Argillite, Slate, Phyllites, and Siltstone

overlaid by gypsum and limestone units. Loose Clay, Silt, Sand & Gravel Limestone & Calcareous Shale with intercalations Kamlial Formation of Marl & Limestone Stream Channel Silt, Sand & Gravel /Alluvial deposits Terrace deposits Gravel, Sand, Silt & Clayey material

Map digitized from GSP- sheets

Crack developed in the material because of weak material lying on steep slope
Source: Field study

Cracks accelerate the downslope movement of mass at the site.

Source: Field study

Source: USGS 30 m DEM

Annual Rainfall (2001-2010)

2500

2000

1500

Rainfall (mm)

1000

500

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Years

Source: Meteorological Department, Mzd. AJK

Note: Muzaffarabad receives 1363mm average annual rainfall

Mean monthly rainfall (2001-2010)

300

250

Rainfall (mm)

200

150

100

50

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Months

Source: Meteorological Department, Mzd. AJK

Neelum River found responsible for undercutting slopes, a major cause of landsliding in the area.
Source: Google Earth

Undercutting of slopes could be observed at different locations along the river. Houses at risk at the top of slope.

Source: Google Earth

Dhanni Nala along the study area contributes to slope instability

Source: Field study

No engineering measures observed to prevent undercutting of slopes

Soil erosion could also be seen.
Source: Field study

Aspect study area

Landslides are more at south facing slope, attributed to windward direction during monsoon rainfall.

Source: USGS

Major anthropogenic causes of landslides in the study area

Devegetation Road construction Human induced vibrations

Landslides due to road construction at front face of the study area.

Source: Field study

Road construction found as dominant factor for slope instability at different locations in the area.
Source: Field study

Rapid devegetation contributes to prompt mass movement at many

locations in the area.

Source: Field study

Deforestation

found responsible for instability of slopes in the study area.

Source: Field study

Reckless cutting bared the slopes, in the past the whole area was
under thick forest cover (Elders of the study area)

Source: Field study

Human induced vibrations a contributory factor for slope instability

found during field study.
Source: Field study

Major Impacts of landslides in the study area

Casualties due to Earthquake Disaster of 2005 in Dhanni Village

300

250

200

Numbers

150

100

50

0 Earthquake Related Landslide Related

Deaths 247 39

Injured 125 11

Source: Deputy Commissioner office, Muzaffarabad

Respondents response: Life & property damages by landslides after Earthquake 2005

21%

79 %

Source: Questionnaire survey

Houses & Shops damage due to Earthquake Disaster of 2005 in Dhanni Village
160

140

120

100

Numbers

80

60

40

20

0
Houses Shops

EQ Related 135 5

Landslide Related 9 7

Source : Deputy Commissioner office, Muzaffarabad

Remains of the houses could be seen at margins of the terrace (Source: Field study)

Almost all the houses collapsed during earthquake, 2005.

at the margins of the village

Source: Field study

No land use regulations found in the study area. People still make
encroachment towards marginal lands.
Source: Field study

Agricultural land losses are common phenomena in the marginal lands.

Source: Field study

Old bridge has collapsed during the earthquake of 2005 due to landsliding. A new bridge is under construction that will reduce miseries of the inhabitants that they are suffering since more than 5 years . (Source: Field survey)
Source: Field study

Image courtesy : Mumtaz Hussain, AKMIDC

Cable lift: The only source to cross the river since more than 5 years is the cable lift.
Source: Field study

Ladslide Hazard Zonation (LSHZ) for Muzaffarabad

Susceptibility Class Low Moderate High Very high

Area (acres) 2137 7197 6446 5051

Shwoing Susceptibility classes % to total study area

Class
34.54

30.97
24.24

10.25

Low

Moderate

High

Very High

Findings & Recommendations. This study shows that if the landsliding and soil erosion phenomena were not checked, the Dhanni village surrounded on three sides by the Neelum river will ultimately be washed away from the surface.
Beside natural factors this study reveals that one of the main cause of the landsliding is the Deforestation in the area. To reduce the frequency of sliding deforestation should be checked strictly by the government.

Implementation of Land use regulations and Engineering measures Awareness should be created amongst the people to avoid the sites for the construction of houses and other installations that are vulnerable to landslides. Establishment of Centre for Environmental Studies (particularly for landslides) In earth science institutes. Lack of coordination between researches and decision-making personnel in different government and non government organization should be curtailed. Micro hazard zonation mapping of the area