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Comparative Analysis of Indian Private Banks (HDFC , ICICI , Axis Bank) on the basis of Operating Profit, Profit after Tax ,EPS ,Capital Adequacy Ratio and seeing their Impact on Stock Prices for the last 3years (2008-2010)
Submitted To SCDL, Pune In the partial fulfillment of the Post Graduate Diploma in Business Administration
Under the Guidance of: Mr. Tejinder Wadhera Manager, ICICI Bank
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DECLARATION
I, Richa Kalra, Reg No 200624826-M.B.A. of SCDL, PUNE hereby declare that my that my project on Comparative Analysis of Indian Private Banks (HDFC , ICICI , Axis Bank) on the Basis of (Operating profit, Profit after Tax ,EPS ,Capital Adequacy Ratio) And seeing their Impact on Stock Prices for the last 3years (2008-2010) for the award of degree in M.B.A. is an authentic work. This Project report is an original work and my part of this project report has not been submitted elsewhere for any degree elsewhere in any form.
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This project would not have been completed without the direct and indirect help and guidance of such luminaries. They provided me with the necessary recourses and atmosphere conductive for healthy learning and training.
Researcher is also thankful to the respondents, all my friends and also to various Banking experts for their kind and valuable guidance, whom Researcher consulted for this present work.
(Richa)
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Under this project, Researcher have tried to study the Banking sector basically focusing on financial & operating analysis of 3 banks (HDFC, AXIS, ICICI BANKS)
This project report is divided into various sections. The first section comprises of a brief introduction of the banking industry & then getting concentrated on the five major players of banking sector.
The second section includes Objectives of the study, Justification of the study and Literature Review of the study. The third and most essential part comprises of Research Methodology & Analytical tools, Sampling & sampling Design used in study regarding analytical tools. Researcher have used analytical tools (CAMEL Model) & Statistical tools
Then it includes the sources of data collection & hypothesis testing (t-test) used in preparation of the study. Last but not the least, Researcher have analyzed the various financial aspects of the two companies & then came out with the findings with which Researcher then concluded the report.
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1. Introduction a) Profile of the Industry b) Profile of the Organizations c) Topic of the study 2. Research objectives 3. Theoretical framework a) Constructs b) Independent and Dependent variables 4. Literature Review 5. Research Methodology a) Research design 1. Type of research design 2. Time Horizon 3. Study Setting 4. Measurement and Scaling 5. Flowchart for selection of statistical tools b) Hypothesis Development and testing c) Sample and Sampling Design d) Data Collection e) Analytical Tools f) Statistical Tools g) Limitations of the Study 6. Results & Findings 7. Recommendations/Suggestions 8. Bibliography 9. Annexure
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Major constituents of the Indian financial sector are banks, financial institutions, and markets, which mobilize the resources from the surplus sector and channelize the same to the different needy sectors in the economy. In fact, the Indian financial system is characterized by its two major segments - an organized sector and a traditional sector that is also known as informal credit market. Financial intermediation in the organized sector is conducted by a large number of banks and financial institutions. Financial institutions are further classified based on their mandate and activities, which may be term lending, specialized, and investment institutions. Banks are further classified into public and private sector banks, cooperative banks, and regional rural banks. A bank is a financial intermediary that accepts deposits and channels those deposits into lending activities, either directly or through capital markets. A bank connects customers with capital deficits to customers with capital surpluses. Banking is generally a highly regulated industry, and government restrictions on financial activities by banks have varied over time and location. The current set of global bank capital standards are called Basel II The banking system is, by far, the most dominant segment of the financial sector, accounting for over 60% of the funds flowing through the financial sector. The Government has also set up two separate regulatory bodies, viz., Insurance Regulatory Development Authority (IRDA) of India for the insurance sector, and the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for the capital market.
The Indian financial sector today is significantly different from what it used to be in the 1970s and 1980s. The financial sector prior to the 1990s was characterized by segmented and underdeveloped financial markets coupled with paucity of instruments. For maintaining spreads of banking sector, regulation of both deposit and lending rates resulted not only in distorting the interest rate mechanism, but also adversely affected the viability and profitability of banks. The
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Channels
Banks offer many different channels to access their banking and other services: ATM is a machine that dispenses cash and sometimes takes deposits without the need for a human bank teller. Some ATMs provide additional services. A branch is a retail location Call center Mail: most banks accept check deposits via mail and use mail to communicate to their customers, e.g. by sending out statements Mobile banking is a method of using one's mobile phone to conduct banking transactions Online banking is a term used for performing transactions, payments etc. over the Internet Relationship Managers, mostly for private banking or business banking, often visiting customers at their homes or businesses Telephone banking is a service which allows its customers to perform transactions over the telephone without speaking to a human Video banking is a term used for performing banking transactions or professional banking consultations via a remote video and audio connection. Video banking can be performed via purpose built banking transaction machines (similar to an Automated teller machine), or via a videoconference enabled bank branch.
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HDFC BANK[34]:
The Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited (HDFC) was amongst the first to receive an 'in principle' approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to set up a bank in the private sector, as part of the RBI's liberalization of the Indian Banking Industry in 1994. The bank was incorporated in August 1994 in the name of 'HDFC Bank Limited', with its registered office in Mumbai, India. HDFC Bank commenced operations as a Scheduled Commercial Bank in January 1995.
HDFC Bank is headquartered in Mumbai. The Bank at present has network of over 531 branches spread over 228 cities across India. All branches are linked on an online real-time basis. Customers in over 120 locations are also serviced through Telephone Banking. The Bank's expansion plans take into account the need to have a presence in all major industrial and commercial centers where its corporate customers are located as well as the need to build a strong retail customer base for both deposits and loan products. Being a clearing/settlement bank to various leading stock exchanges, the Bank has branches in the centre where the NSE/BSE has a strong and active member base.
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Vision Statement
To Be a dominant Player in the Indian Mutual Fund Space Recognized for its high levels of ethical and professional conduct and a commitment towards enhancing Investors.
Objective
To Achieve Capital Appreciation by Investing Primarily in equity oriented
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Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India) is India's largest private sector bank by market capitalization and second largest overall in terms of assets. total assets of Rs. 3,562.28 billion (US$ 77 billion) at December 31, 2009 and profit after tax Rs. 30.19 billion (US$ 648.8 million) for the nine months ended December 31, 2009 The Bank also has a network of 1,640+ branches (as on February 11, 2010) and about 4,721 ATMs in India and presence in 18 countries, as well as some 24 million customers (at the end of July 2007). ICICI Bank offers a wide range of banking products and financial services to corporate and retail customers through a variety of delivery channels and specialized subsidiaries and affiliates in the areas of investment banking, life and non-life insurance, venture capital and asset management. (These data are dynamic.)
Vision:
To be the leading provider of financial services in India and a major global bank.
Mission:
We will leverage our people, technology, speed and financial capital to: be the banker of first choice for our customers by delivering high quality, world-class products and services. expand the frontiers of our business globally. play a proactive role in the full realisation of Indias potential. maintain a healthy financial profile and diversify our earnings across businesses and geographies.
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Code of Commitment
ICICI Bank follows a voluntary Code, which sets minimum standards of banking practices when they are dealing with individual customer.
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Axis Bank
Axis Bank, formerly UTI Bank, is a financial services firm that had begun operations in 1994, after the Government of India allowed new private banks to be established. The Bank was promoted jointly by the Administrator of the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (UTI-I), Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), General Insurance Corporation Ltd., National Insurance Company Ltd., The New India Assurance Company, The Oriental Insurance Corporation and United India Insurance Company UTI-I holds a special position in the Indian capital markets and has promoted many leading financial institutions in the country. As on the year ended 31 March 2009 the Bank had a total income of 13,745.04 crore (US$ 3.12 billion) and a net profit of 1,812.93 crore (US$ 411.54 million).
Mission
Customer Service and Product Innovation tuned to diverse needs of individual and corporate clientele. Continuous technology up gradation while maintaining human values. Progressive globalization and achieving international standards. Efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices.
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CONSTRUCT:Study the Impact of Operating Profit, Profit after Tax (PAT), Earning per share (EPS) And Capital adequacy ratio on Stock price
VARIABLE:
Dependent Variable:
Stock Price
Independent Variable:
Operating Profit Profit after Tax EPS Capital adequacy ratio
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(The various type of research design and the other concepts of research methodology are studied from this book.) Sheridan J Coakes, Lyndall Steed, Peta Dzidic[5] SPSS forWindows (This book has been used for applying the various statistical, tools and tests on the study ) Gupta S.P[6] (2008) Statistical Methods. (This book reveals information regarding the statistical tools and their limitations in different fields the research is given in this section. This section explains the use of regression analysis techniques.)
Beri G.C.,[7] (2nd edition), Marketing Research, (This book will help Researcher in understanding the different research designs and sources of data collection and methods of data collection are given in this section.)
VERSION 13.0
Jain T.R. and Aggarwal S.C[8] (Edition-3rd) Statistics for MBA. (This gives information about how to find the values of Correlations, Regression, Hypothesis and Trend analysis.) L.M Bhole [9] (Edition-5th) Financial Institution and Market. (This books include the information about the banks.)
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(Knowledge about the hypothesis development like null and alternate hypothesis and hypothesis testing) Sekran Uma[12], (Edition 4th) Research Methods for Business: (Research Process Topic will be taken from this book.) Machiraju H. R. [13], (Edition-3rd) Indian Financial System. (Commercial Banking Topic will be taken from this book) Varshaney P.N. & Mittal D.K.[14], (Revised Edition-10th) Indian Financial System. (Securitization and Assets Reconstruction Companies Topic will be taken from this book.) Gupta S.P. & Gupta M.P. [15], (Edition 15th) Business Statistics. (Correlation Topic will be taken from this book)
JOURNALS:
Usha Arora[16] (vol xxi no. 1, March 2007), Finance India. (This article include the information about the operational and productivity efficiency of the private sectors banks). A. Amarender Reddy[17] (vol xix ,no3 ,September 2005), Finance India. (The researcher would likely to take the information about the banking productivity.) Sanjiv Joshi[18] (vol xxi no. 4,december 2007), Finance India. (This article include the information about the central banking in a liberalising economy) Meena Sharma[19] (vol. Xix ,No-3 ,sept. 2005), Finance India. (This article include the information about the NPAs and Impact NPAs performance of the banks) Thorsten Beck, Ross Levine, Alexey Levkov[20] ( Vol lxv ,No.5 ,October 2010), The Journal of finance . 16 | P a g e Submitted By: Richa Kalra
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Magazines:
P K Kulkarni [25] (SEPT.- DEC. 2007), ICFAI Reader (This magazine include the information about the financial institutions) G S Rathore[26] (November 2007), ICFAI Reader. (This magazine include the information about the financial indicators that effect the efficiency of the banks.) V P Shetty
[27](
(This magazine include the information about the globalisation of the Indian banks due to which the competition is increased and effective management in Indian banks is necessary.) B Sambamurthy[28] (November 2006), Chartered financial Analyst (This magazine include the information about the Indian banking and their operations.)
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Websites
http://www.experiment-resources.com/research-designs.html[31] - To know about the reseach design. http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/stat_t.php[32] - To know about the t test.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank[33] - To know about the banking sector
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Secondary objectives
To Study the Impact of Operating Profit on stock price To Study the Impact of EPS[a] on stock Price To Study the Impact of PAT[b] on Stock Price To Study the Impact of Capital Adequacy Ratio on Stock Price
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Meaning of research Problem statement Research design Sample design Data collection Analysis and Interpretation of data
Meaning of Research[4] Research is defined as a scientific & systematic search for pertinent information on a specific topic. Research is an art of scientific investigation. Research is a systemized effort to gain new knowledge. It is a careful inquiry especially through search for new facts in any branch of knowledge. The search for knowledge through objective and systematic method of finding solution to a problem is a research.
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4 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
5 GENERATION OF HYPOTHESES
8 DEDUCTION Hypotheses substantiated? Research question answered? NO Yes 11 Manager ial decision making
9 Report writing
Problem Statement The research problems, in general refers to sum difficulty with a researcher experience in the contest of either a particular a theoretical situation and want to obtain a salutation for same. Research Design A research is the arrangement of the conditions for the collections and analysis of the data in a manner that aims to combine relevance to the research purpose with economy in procedure. In fact, the research is design is the conceptual structure within which research is conducted; it constitutes the blue print of the collection, measurement and analysis of the data. As search the design includes an outline of what the researcher will do from writing the hypothesis and its operational implication to the final analysis of data11. 21 | P a g e Submitted By: Richa Kalra
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The design is such studies must be rigid and not flexible and most focus attention on the following; o What is the study about? o Why is the study being made? o Where will the study be carried out? o What type of data is required? o Where can be required data be found? o What period of time will the study include? o What will be sample design? o What techniques of data collection will be used? o How will the data be analyzed? o In what style will the report be prepared?14
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RESEARCH DESIGN[7]
EXPLORATORY RESEARCH DESIGN Exploratory research design is termed as formulating research studies. The main purpose of study is that of formulating a problem. The major emphasis in such study is on discovery of new ideas and insights. As such the research design appropriate for such studies must be flexible enough to provide opportunity for considering different aspects of problem.
DESCRIPTIVE AND DIAGNOSTIC RESEARCH DESIGN Descriptive research design are those design which are concerned with describing the characteristics of particular individual or of the group Whereas diagnostic research studies determine the frequency with which something occurs or its association with some else. In 23 | P a g e Submitted By: Richa Kalra
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EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH DESIGN These are those studies where the researcher tests the hypothesis of casual relationship between variables. Such study requires procedure that will not only reduce biasness and increase reliability but will permit drawing. Research design adopted by researcher will be Descriptive because in this design all the information gather is related to the problem which is predefined and all the data collected is descriptive in nature.
TYPES OF INVESTIGATION CAUSAL STUDY CORRELATIONAL STUDY A Researcher should determine whether a Causal & Co relational Study to find an Answer to the issue at hand. The former is done when it is necessary to establish Cause-Effect Relationship. However, if all that the researcher wants is mere the identification of the important factors associated with the problem then, then Co relational study. In this study, Co relational Study is to be done, because Researcher will be interested in delineating the important associated variables.
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CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES LONGITUDINAL STUDIES A study can be done in which data are gathered just once, perhaps a period of days or weeks or month, in order to answer a research question. Such studies are called one shot or CrossSectional Studies. On the other hand, when the researcher tries to collect Data at more than one point of time it is known as longitudinal studies. Here, in this study Cross-Sectional Design will be used as data for study will be gathered just once.
STUDY SETTING
CONTRIVED NONCONTRIVED As we know that Research can be done in the natural environment where work proceeds normally or in artificial settings. A Contrived Setting with researcher interference to an excessive degree. Whereas, A Non contrived Setting with researcher interference with minimal degree or moderate extent. In this Study, the study setting will be Contrived Setting due to high degree of interference of researcher & influences by a no. of variables.
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Comparative Analysis of Indian Private Banks FLOWCHART FOR SELECTON OF STATISTICAL TOOL
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One-Sample Test Test Value = 0 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference T OperatingProfit StockPrice 4.435 4.331 df 2 2 Sig. (2-tailed) .047 .049 Mean Difference 2184.23333 1679.50000 Lower 65.3241 10.9198 Upper 4303.1425 3348.0802
INTERPRETATION Here T value is 4.331, which is more than significant value. So thats why alternate hypothesis will be accepted. 27 | P a g e Submitted By: Richa Kalra
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One-Sample Test Test Value = 0 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference t OperatingProfit StockPrice 48.464 4.044 df 2 2 Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .056 Mean Difference 5316.20000 822.23333 Lower 4844.2225 -52.6972 Upper 5788.1775 1697.1639
INTERPRETATION Here T value is 4.044, which is more than significant value. So thats why alternate hypothesis will be accepted.
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AXIS
One-Sample Statistics N OperatingProfit StockPrice 3 3 Mean 7.4179E2 9.4762E2 Std. Deviation 108.49922 423.92070 Std. Error Mean 62.64205 244.75073
One-Sample Test Test Value = 0 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference T OperatingProfit StockPrice 11.842 3.872 df 2 2 Sig. (2-tailed) .007 .051 Mean Difference 741.79333 947.61667 Lower 472.2663 -105.4607 Upper 1011.3203 2000.6941
INTERPRETATION Here T value is 3.872, which is more than significant value. So thats why alternate hypothesis will be accepted
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NULL Hypothesis (H0): There is no Significant Impact of EPS on Stock Price ALTERNATE Hypothesis (H1): There is Significant Impact of EPS on Stock Price HDFC
One-Sample Statistics N EPS StockPrice 3 3 Mean 52.3100 1.6802E3 Std. Deviation 9.56450 670.59776 Std. Error Mean 5.52207 387.16980
One-Sample Test Test Value = 0 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference T EPS StockPrice 9.473 4.340 df 2 2 Sig. (1-tailed) .011 .049 Mean Difference 52.31000 1680.22000 Lower 28.5505 14.3628 Upper 76.0695 3346.0772
INTERPRETATION Here T value is 4.340, which is more than significant value. So thats why alternate hypothesis will be accepted.
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ICICI
One-Sample Statistics N EPS StockPrice 3 3 Mean 34.3533 8.2223E2 Std. Deviation 1.83075 352.20695 Std. Error Mean 1.05698 203.34678
One-Sample Test Test Value = 0 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference T EPS StockPrice 32.501 4.044 df 2 2 Sig. (2-tailed) .001 .036 Mean Difference 34.35333 822.23333 Lower 29.8055 -52.6972 Upper 38.9012 1697.1639
INTERPRETATION Here T value is 4.044, which is more than significant value. So thats why alternate hypothesis will be accepted.
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AXIS
One-Sample Statistics N EPS StockPrice 3 3 Mean 34.3533 9.4762E2 Std. Deviation 1.83075 423.92070 Std. Error Mean 1.05698 244.75073
One-Sample Test Test Value = 0 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference T EPS StockPrice 32.501 3.872 df 2 2 Sig. (2-tailed) .001 .041 Mean Difference 34.35333 947.61667 Lower 29.8055 -105.4607 Upper 38.9012 2000.6941
INTERPRETATION Here T value is 3.872, which is more than significant value. So thats why alternate hypothesis will be accepted.
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HDFC Bank H0: There is no Significant Impact of Profit after Tax on Stock Price H1: There is Significant Impact of Profit after Tax on Stock Price
One-Sample Statistics N PAT SharePrice 3 3 Mean 2.2613E3 1.6795E3 Std. Deviation 679.39739 671.69391 Std. Error Mean 392.25026 387.80266
One-Sample Test Test Value = 0 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference T PAT SharePrice 5.765 4.331 df 2 2 Sig. (1-tailed) .029 .049 Mean Difference 2261.28000 1679.50000 Lower 573.5633 10.9198 Upper 3948.9967 3348.0802
INTERPRETATION Here T value is 4.331, which is more than significant value. So thats why alternate hypothesis will be accepted.
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ICICI
One-Sample Statistics N PAT StockPrice 3 3 Mean 3.9803E3 8.2223E2 Std. Deviation 203.51562 352.20695 Std. Error Mean 117.49980 203.34678
One-Sample Test Test Value = 0 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference T PAT StockPrice 33.875 4.044 df 2 2 Sig. (1-tailed) .001 .056 Mean Difference 3980.28000 822.23333 Lower 3474.7192 -52.6972 Upper 4485.8408 1697.1639
INTERPRETATION Here T value is 4.044, which is more than significant value. So thats why alternate hypothesis will be accepted.
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AXIS
One-Sample Statistics N PAT StockPrice 3 3 Mean 1.8003E3 9.4762E2 Std. Deviation 721.86773 423.92070 Std. Error Mean 416.77053 244.75073
One-Sample Test Test Value = 0 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference t PAT StockPrice 4.320 3.872 df 2 2 Sig. (1-tailed) .050 .061 Mean Difference 1800.30667 947.61667 Lower 7.0878 -105.4607 Upper 3593.5255 2000.6941
INTERPRETATION Here T value is 3.872, which is more than significant value. So thats why alternate hypothesis will be accepted.
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NULL Hypothesis (H0):There is no Significant Impact of Capital Adequacy Ratio on Stock Price ALTERNATE Hypothesis (H1): There is Significant Impact of Capital Adequacy Ratio on Stock Price
One-Sample Statistics N CapitalAdequacy StockPrice 3 3 Mean 2.1254E4 1.6795E3 Std. Deviation 5372.22551 671.69391 Std. Error Mean 3101.65584 387.80266
One-Sample Test Test Value = 0 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference t CapitalAdequacy StockPrice 6.852 4.331 df 2 2 Sig. (1-tailed) .021 .049 Mean Difference 21253.79667 1679.50000 Lower 7908.4487 10.9198 Upper 34599.1446 3348.0802
INTERPRETATION Here T value is 4.331, which is more than significant value. So thats why alternate hypothesis will be accepted.
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Several decisions have to be taken in context to the decision about the appropriate sample selection so that accurate data is obtained and efficient results are drawn.
Following questions have to be considered while sampling design What is the relevant population? What is the parameter of interest? What is the sampling frame? What is the type of sample? What sample size is needed? How much will it cost?
The sample size of past Three years will be taken for present study.
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DATA COLLECTION
After the research problem has been identified and selected the next step is to gather the requisite data. While deciding about the method of data collection to be used for the researcher should keep in mind two types of data VIZ. primary and secondary.
PRIMARY DATA
The primary data are those, which are collected afresh and for the first time, and thus happened to be original in character. We can obtain primary data either through observation or through direct communication with respondent in one form or another or through personal interview
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OBSERVATION METHOD
INTERVIEW METHOD
QUESTIONNAI RE METHOD
SCHEDULE METHOD
SECONDARY DATA
The secondary data on the other hand, are those which have already been collected by someone else and which have already been passed through the statistical processes. When the researcher utilizes secondary data then he has to look into various sources from where he can obtain them. For example, Books, magazines, newspapers, Internet, publications and reports etc.
In the present study Researcher will be made use of secondary data collected from their website and from their records.
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Comparative Analysis of Indian Private Banks The Researcher has used following Ratios
Operating Profit Ratio Earning Per Share Capital adequacy ratio Profit after Tax Earnings Per share (EPS)
Interpretation-Both Axis and HDFC Banks have rise in their EPS in 2008-10 due to increasing PAT more with shareholders funds. But ICICI Bank comparatively decline in their EPS due to more variation in their PAT which is not going in the same degree (Increasing/Decreasing).
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Interpretation-Both Axis and HDFC Banks have rise in their PAT But ICICI Bank comparatively decline in their PAT which is not going in the same degree (Increasing/Decreasing). But ICICI Bank has the maximum PAT between all the banks.
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Interpretation- There is no fluctuation in operating profit ratio of the three banks in last two years but there is fluctuation in comparison to year 2008.
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Interpretation-All Banks are consistently increasing their capital adequacy which is a good sign for these banks as they will get saved from the risk weighted assets, if any risk arise then they have sufficient capital in their banks to get out of that.
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CAMEL APPROACH[28]
Researcher has used camel approach .It is use for the purpose of ranking. Each Parameter of Camel Capital adequacy , Asset Quality , Management Quality , Earning quality , Liquidity Quality will be evaluated taking two ratios and finally composite index will be developed by the researcher.
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CAMEL Model
C RANK 3 2 1
A RANK 2 3 1
M RANK 3 2 1
E RANK 3 2 1
L RANK
RANK 3 2 1
Interpretation- ICICI Bank has been given 1st Rank overall through this model. Because ICICI Bank is having Capital Adequacy maximum In Asset Quality, ICICI have less NPA Ratio which is a good sign. And also in Management Efficiency, Earning Quality and Liquidity, this bank performed best out of these banks. So Rank 1 is assigned to this bank.
But HDFC and AXIS Bank could not perform well as compared to ICICI Bank so they are Ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively.
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STATISTICAL TOOLS[5][8]
An educated citizen needs an understanding of basic statistical tool to function in a world that is becoming increasingly dependant on quantitative information. Statistics means numerical description to most people. In fact the term statistics is generally used to mean numerical facts and figures such as agriculture production during a year, rate of inflation and so on. However as a subject of study, statistics refers to the body of principles and procedures developed for the collection, classification, summarization and interpretation of numerical data and for the use of such data.
MEANING:Broadly speaking, the term statistics has been generally used in two senses:Plural Sense Singular Sense Plural sense refers to the numerical data. Singular Sense refers to a Science in which we deals with the techniques of collecting, classifying, presenting, analyzing and interpreting the data, the concept in its singular sense, refers to Statistical Method. PURPOSE: Without the assistance of Statistical Method, an organization would find it impossible to make sense of the huge data. The purpose of statistics is to:Analyze Summarize Investigate Record A wide variety of statistical tools are available and any of them can be used by any businessman depending upon the nature of his trade. Various statistical tools are: Correlation Time Series Index Numbers 47 | P a g e Submitted By: Richa Kalra
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Correlation
Some important definitions of correlation are given below: Correlation analysis deals with the association between two or more variables- Simpson and Kafka. If two or more quantities vary in sympathy, so that movement in one tend to be accompanied by corresponding movements in the other, then they are said to be correlated- Conner. Correlation analysis attempts to determine the degree of relationship between variables.
Types of Correlation:-
Correlation is classified in several different ways. Three of the most important ways are:-
Positive and Negative Correlation:When two variable X and Y move in same direction is Positive Correlation and when both variables move in opposite direction that is Negative Correlation.
Simple, Partial and Multiple Correlations:When we study the relationship between two variables only that is Simple Correlation. When three or more variables are taken but relationship between any two of the variable is studied, assuming other variables as constant that is Partial Correlation and when we study the relationship among three or more variables that is Multiple Correlation.
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Degree Of Correlation:Sr. No. 1 2 Degree of correlation Perfect correlation High Degree Positive +1 of Between +.75 to+1 Negative -1 Between -.75 to-1
correlation 3 Moderate Degree of Between Correlation 4 Low Degree to+.75 of Between 0 to+.25 Between 0 to-.25 +.25 Between -.25 to-.75
Karl Pearson's coefficient of correlation method:Karl Pearson's coefficient of correlation method is the main important method to calculate the correlation between two variables.
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CORRELATION
Correlations OperatingProfit OperatingProfit Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N StockPrice Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N 3 .986 .108 3 3 1 StockPrice .986 .108 3 1
INTERPRETATION
There is High degree of correlation between Operating Profit and Share Price.
SharePrice 1 .999
*
.030 3 1
.030 3 3
INTERPRETATION
There is High degree of correlation between PAT and Share Price.
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INTERPRETATION
There is High degree of correlation between EPS and Share Price.
INTERPRETATION
There is High degree of correlation between Capital Adequacy and Share Price.
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INTERPRETATION
There is Moderate degree of correlation between Operating Profit and Share Price.
INTERPRETATION
There is Moderate degree of correlation between PAT and Share Price.
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INTERPRETATION
There is Moderate degree of correlation between EPS and Share Price.
StockPrice .990
**
.005 3 1
.005 3 3
INTERPRETATION
There is High degree of correlation between Operating Profit and Share Price.
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StockPrice 1 .998
*
.021 3 1
.021 3 3
INTERPRETATION
There is High degree of correlation between PAT and Share Price.
Correlations EPS EPS Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N StockPrice Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N 3 .459 .348 3 3 1 StockPrice .459 .348 3 1
INTERPRETATION
There is Moderate degree of correlation between Operating Profit and Share Price.
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Regression Analysis6
Regression is the study of the nature of relationship between the variables so that one may be able to predict the unknown value of one variable for a known value of another value. It is the measure of average relationship between two or more variables. Types of regression analysis:-
Simple and multiple regression:- incase of simple regression, we study only tewo variables i.e. one dependent and one independent. But in case of multiple regression we take more than two variables i.e. one dependent and other independent.
Linear and Non-linear regression :- when one variable changes with another variable in some fixed ratio, it is called as linear regression. But if this ratio is not constant, it is known as Nonlinear regression.
Partial and Total regression:- If from more than two variabless only two two variables are taken into consideration. It is called as partial regression. But all variables are taken into consideration at a single slank. It is called as total regression.
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R Square .972
Square .943
160.15318
INTERPRETATION There is high Impact of Operating Profit on Share Price i.e by 98.6%
R Square .998
Square .995
45.36985
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R Square .981
Square .962
130.14677
I NTERPRETATION There is high Impact of EPS on Share Price i.e by 99.1% BETWEEN Capital Adequacy and Stock Price
Model Summary Adjusted R Model 1 R .983
a
R Square .967
Square .934
172.02715
INTERPRETATION There is high Impact of Capital Adequacy on Share Price i.e by 98.3%
R Square .498
Square -.005
INTERPRETATION There is Moderate Impact of Operating Profit on Share Price i.e by 70.5%
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R Square .200
Square -.599
R Square .200
Square -.599
INTERPRETATION There is Low Impact of PAT on Share Price i.e by 44.8% AXIS BANK BETWEEN Operating Profit and Stock Price
Model Summary Adjusted R Model 1 R .990
a
R Square .990
Square .999
9.73358
INTERPRETATION There is high Impact of Operating Profit on Share Price i.e by 99.0% 58 | P a g e Submitted By: Richa Kalra
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R Square .996
Square .991
39.51967
R Square .210
Square -.579
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Some information related to the study, which had been collected from the company was rounded off because of some influence. Some data like Bank Statements were to be called from distant units and it was too bulk that units refuse to deliver it and if deliver after delaying too much.
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RECOMMENDATIONS
Banks should focus on their NPA which is a major factor for checking the banks credit quality. If NPA increases that means loan amount as well as interest amount is not coming on time so banks have to take proper measures to decrease the NPA ratio. Increases of NPA decreases the Net Interest Income as Interest received amount get less from increasing of NPAs. So focus should be to decrease the NPA ratio to total assets.
Major focus should be to increase the PAT as shareholder funds are increasing, so PAT should be increasing more in proportion of shareholders funds because it contributes to Return on Net worth.
Liquidity is also the major issue that to be considered and to increase so that liquidity risk will not arise in future.
Capital Adequacy plays an important role, the more the capital adequacy, more will be the goodwill of Bank as this symbolizes that bank have adequate capital to meet out from risk weighted assets. If some of the loans gets into NPAs then Bank have sufficient or have the maximum capital with compared to all the banks that Customers will be more coming to banks.
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POLICY IMPLICATIONS
The researcher suggested various policies to organisation which he thinks that if they implemented in the right manner can increase the earnings of the firm which in turn increase the goodwill of the firm. Implementation of policy on the related issues depends upon the result of discussion among the top executives of an organisation for the flowing policies. The various policies that should be applied in an organisation on the basis of the study of financial analysis of organisation are as follows:-
Monitor your accounts receivable on an ongoing basis. More investment in fixed assets. Maintenance of Proper Records of those agents wherever it has been shown as Old Outstanding/Closed Outstanding.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY BOOKS
1. Sekran Uma, (4th edition), Business Research Methodology (Researcher choose this book for studied, for Knowledge about research process.)
2. Ciaran Walsh, Key Management Ratios (The book is selected to get analysis of ratio.)
3. Kothari C.R. (2th edition), Research methodology methods & techniques, (Knowledge about the hypothesis development like null and alternate hypothesis and hypothesis testing) 4. .Cooper R. Donald (Edition-8th) Business Research Methods.- (The various type of research design and the other concepts of research methodology are studied from this book.) 5. Sheridan J Coakes, Lyndall Steed, Peta Dzidic SPSS VERSION 13.0 forWindows(This book has been used for applying the various statistical, tools and tests on the study ) 6. Gupta S.P (2008) Statistical Methods.- (This book reveals information regarding the statistical tools and their limitations in different fields the research is given in this section. This section explains the use of regression analysis techniques.) 7. Beri G.C., (2nd edition), Marketing Research,- (This book will help Researcher in understanding the different research designs and sources of data collection and methods of data collection are given in this section.) 8. Jain T.R. and Aggarwal S.C (Edition-3rd) Statistics for MBA.- (This gives
information about how to find the values of Correlations, Regression, Hypothesis and Trend analysis.) 9. L.M Bhole (Edition-5th) Financial Institution and Market.- (This books include the information about the banks.) 10. Goel D.K (2008), Management Accounting And Financial Management:- (The book was selected to get the types of ratios like profitability, liquidity etc)
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11. Kothari C.R. (2th edition), Research methodology methods & techniques, - (Knowledge
about the hypothesis development like null and alternate hypothesis and hypothesis testing) 12. P.N Varshaney (Edition-3rd) Indian Financial System. (This books include the information about the commercial banks and their roles.) 13. Gupta.k.Shashi (Edition-13th) Financial Institution and Market. (This book include the information about the history of bank industry.) 14. Varshaney P.N. & Mittal D.K.[14], (Revised Edition-10th) Indian Financial System. (Information about Indian financial system has taken) 15. Gupta S.P. & Gupta M.P. [15], (Edition 15th) Business Statistics. (Correlation Topic will be taken from this book)
JOURNALS:
16. Usha Arora (vol xxi no. 1, March 2007), An analysis of operational and productivity efficiency of public sector banks, Finance India pp no. 167-176. 17. A. Amarender Reddy (vol xix ,no3 ,September 2005), Banking sector deregulation and productivity change decomposition of Indian banks, Finance India. Pp no. 983-1001 18. Sanjiv Joshi (vol xxi no. 4,december 2007), Central banking in a liberalising economy:Autonomy of the reserve bank of india, Finance India pp no. 1405-1442. 19. Meena Sharma (vol. Xix ,No-3 ,sept. 2005), problems of NPAs and its impact on strategic banking variables, Finance India pp no. 953-967. 20. Thorsten Beck, Ross Levine, Alexey Levkov ( Vol lxv ,No.5 ,October 2010), Big bad banks? The winners and looser from bank deregulation in the united states,The Journal of finance pp no. 1637-1667. 65 | P a g e Submitted By: Richa Kalra
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Magazine:
25. P K Kulkarni (SEPT.- DEC. 2007), ICFAI Reader 26. G S Rathore (November 2007), Impact of financial sector reforms on banking sector in india, ICFAI Reader. 27. V P Shetty (October 2006), The changing Paradigm, Chartered financial Analyst 28. B Sambamurthy (November 2006), Indian banking future perfect, Chartered financial Analyst 29. Steve Payne (October 2010), The analyst. 30. Natasha khakhar Patel (jan 28- jul 11,2010), Capital Market 31. Kaushik Chakaraborty (January 2007), Chartered financial Analyst
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