DAILY I FOREX REPORT 10TH JUN 2013

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HEADLINES

Euros Recent Gains In Question Amid Soft Economic Docket Japanese Yen Remains In Spotlight Ahead Of Key Bank Of Japan Decision
Weekly Forex Trading Forecast - Markets Set to Catch Their Breath

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3285 TGT 1.3305/1.3325 SL 1.3255

US Dollar Set to Recover as Markets Catch Their Breath The Dollar went from best-to-worst in a hurry as a substantial Yen surge put it to its worst weekly decline since 2011. But a calm in market conditions could bring short-term relief. Euros Recent Gains in Question amid Softer Economic Docket The weak performance against the CHF and the JPY raises concerns about further gains for the Euro. The economic docket is light, and volatility is likely going forward irrespective. Will the BoJ Rate Decision Halt the Japanese Yen Correction? The Japanese Yen gained ground ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision, with the USDJPY tumbling to a fresh monthly low of 94.97, and the nearterm correction may continue to take shape in the week ahead should the central bank sticks to the sidelines. Australian Dollar Still Vulnerable But Reversal Risk Mounting The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to an adverse shift in monetary policy expectations but extreme positioning leaves the risk of a reversal elevated.

SELL USDJPY BELOW 95.00 TGT 95.20/95.40 SL 94.70

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5620 TGT 1.5640/1.5660 SL 1.5590

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Gold Trades Heavy on NFP Beat- Bearish Below $1430 +91 7316642300 Gold was softer this week with the precious metal off by 0.48% to trade at $1380 at the

 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3242 HIGH: 1.3282 LOW: 1.3191 CLOSE: 1.3218 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0007(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 49(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 97.36 HIGH: 97.79 LOW: 95.00 CLOSE: 97.56 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.04(BWARI SIGNAL) RSI => 55(BEARI SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5600 HIGH: 1.5617 LOW: 1.5488 CLOSE: 1.5557 GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 54(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8488 HIGH: 00.8527 LOW: 00.8482 CLOSE: 00.8494 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.00005(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>44(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 81.5440 HIGH: 81.8470 LOW: 81.0900 CLOSE: 81.6880 USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0291(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 33(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Jun 2

18:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Gives Graduation Speech at Princeton University AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAY) JPY Capital Spending (1Q) JPY Capital Spending excl Software (1Q) AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAY) AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (MAY) AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (MAY) CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (MAY) AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (APR) AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Inventories (1Q) CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAY) USD Fed's Yellen Speaks on Regulation in Shanghai JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAY) AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (MAY) AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAY) CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (MAY)

Low

23:30

Medium

43.8

36.7

23:50

Medium

-3.9%

-5.5%

-8.7%

23:50
Mon Jun 3

Medium

-5.2%

-5.4%

-7.2%

00:00

Low

-1.2%

-0.5%

00:30

Low

0.2%

0.3%

00:30

Low

2.2%

2.1%

01:00

Medium

54.3

54.5

01:30

Low

-2.4%

-1.7%

01:30

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

-0.4%

01:30

Low

3.0%

1.5%

-0.5%

01:30

Low

-0.6%

0.0%

0.2%

01:45

Medium

49.2

49.6

50.4

01:50

Low

05:00

Low

-7.3%

2.0%

06:30

Low

87.0

85.5

06:30

Low

-8.6%

-7.3%

07:30

Medium

52.2

50.8

50.2

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY) USD Fed's Williams Speaks in Stockholm USD Markit US PMI Final (MAY) USD Construction Spending (MoM) (APR) USD ISM Manufacturing (MAY) USD ISM Prices Paid (MAY) USD Revisions to Construction data back to Jan. 2011 USD Total Vehicle Sales (MAY) USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAY) GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (MAY) JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAY) JPY Monetary Base End of period (MAY) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAY) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAY)

Low

47.3

46.2

45.5

07:50

Low

46.4

45.5

45.5

07:55

Medium

49.4

49.0

49.0

08:00

Medium

48.3

47.8

47.8

08:30

Medium

51.3

50.3

50.2

11:20

Low

12:58

Low

52.0

52.0

14:00

Medium

0.9%

-1.7%

14:00

High

50.7

50.7

14:00

Medium

49.5

50

14:00

Low

21:00

Low

15.10M

14.88M

21:00

Low

11.95M

11.76M

23:01

Low

1.3%

-2.2%

23:50

Low

23.1%

23:50
Tue Jun 4

Low

155.3T

Low

0.3%

1.1%

Low

2.5%

2.0%

01:30

AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (1Q) AUD Australia Net Exports of GDP (1Q) JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (APR)

Medium

-9000M

-14678M

01:30

Low

0.8

0.6

01:30

Medium

-0.6%

04:30
LIVE

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (JUN 4) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (APR) USD Annual Revisions of the International Trade Report USD Trade Balance (APR) USD ISM New York (MAY) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (JUN) USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in New Mexico NZD Value of All Buildings s.a. (1Q) GBP BRC Shop Price Index (MAY) AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (MAY) USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Monetary Policy in Toronto NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAY) AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q) CNY HSBC Services PMI (MAY) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY F)

High

2.75%

2.75%

08:30

Medium

49.6

49.4

09:00

Low

-0.2%

-0.2%

09:00

Medium

0.3%

0.7%

12:30

Low

-0.60B

0.02B

12:30

Low

12:30

Medium

-$41.0B

-$38.8B

13:45

Low

58.3

14:00

Low

50

45.1

17:30

Low

22:45

Low

1.8%

23:01

Low

0.4%

23:30
Wed Jun 5

Medium

44.1

00:00

Low

01:00

Low

12.6%

01:30

Medium

0.8%

0.6%

01:30

High

2.7%

3.1%

01:45

Medium

51.1

07:45

Low

47.5

47

07:50

Low

44.3

44.3

07:55

Medium

49.8

49.8

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (APR) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 31) USD ADP Employment Change (MAY) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (APR) USD Non-Farm Productivity (1Q F) USD Unit Labor Costs (1Q F) USD Factory Orders (APR) USD USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (MAY) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 31) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 31) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories

Medium

47.5

47.5

08:00

Medium

47.7

08:30

Medium

53.2

52.9

08:30

Low

-$1149M

09:00

High

-0.2%

-0.2%

09:00

High

-1.0%

-1.0%

09:00

Low

-0.4%

09:00

Low

-1.1%

09:00

Low

-0.1%

09:00

Low

-0.2%

-0.1%

09:00

Medium

-0.6%

-2.4%

11:00

Low

-8.8%

12:15

Medium

170K

119K

12:30

Medium

-2.3%

8.6%

12:30

Low

0.7%

0.7%

12:30

Low

0.5%

0.5%

14:00

Medium

1.4%

-4.0%

14:00
LIVE

Medium

53.5

53.1

14:30

Low

3000K

14:30

Low

335K

14:30

Low

-1514K

(MAY 31) 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 31) USD US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 31) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 31) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 31) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 31) AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (APR) JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (MAY) EUR French ILO Unemployment Rate (1Q) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAY) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAY) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY) GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (MAY) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (APR) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (JUN 6) GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUN) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAY) USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (JUN) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision
Low

1851K

18:00

Medium

23:50

Medium

-1117.3B

23:50

Medium

-104.9B

23:50

Low

-457.2B

23:50

Low

27.4B

Thu Jun 6

01:30

Medium

180M

307M

02:00

Low

8.54

05:30

Low

10.6%

07:15

Low

0.1%

0.0%

07:15

Medium

-0.6%

-0.6%

07:15

Low

-0.1%

07:15

Medium

-0.4%

08:30

Low

-41

10:00

Low

-1.0%

2.2%

10:00

Medium

-0.2%

-0.4%

11:00
LIVE

High

0.50%

0.50%

11:00

High

375B

375B

11:30

Low

-6.0%

11:30 11:45
LIVE

Low

50.2

High

0.50%

0.50%

(JUN 6) 11:45
LIVE

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (JUN 6) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economy in Boston USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 1) USD Continuing Claims (MAY 25) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (MAY) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 31) USD Household Change in Net Worth (1Q) AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (MAY) JPY Official Reserve Assets (MAY) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAY)

High

0.00%

0.00%

12:00

Low

12:30

Medium

345K

354K

12:30

Low

2986K

14:00

Medium

55

52.2

14:30

Low

88

16:00

Low

$1174B

23:30

Medium

35.2

23:50
Fri Jun 7

Low

$1258.0B

Low

14.8%

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (APR P) JPY Leading Index (APR P) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (APR) EUR German Current Account (euros) (APR) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (1Q) EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (MAY) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAY) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (APR)

Low

94.9

93.8

05:00

Medium

98.6

97.9

06:00

Medium

17.0B

18.8B

06:00

Low

13.0B

20.2B

06:00

Low

0.8%

06:00

Low

-0.8%

0.5%

06:00

Low

2.9%

06:00

Low

0.8%

06:30

Low

A$49.8B

07:00

Low

433.6B

08:30

Medium

-8800

-9056

08:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (APR) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (APR) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (APR) EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (APR) USD Unemployment Rate (MAY) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (MAY) USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAY) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAY) USD Change in Household Employment (MAY) USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAY) USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (MAY) USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (MAY) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAY) USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAY) CAD Unemployment Rate (MAY) CAD Net Change in Employment (MAY) CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAY) CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAY) CAD Participation Rate (MAY) CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (1Q) USD Consumer Credit (APR)

Medium

-3700

-3470

08:30

Medium

-3000

-3130

10:00

Low

0.3%

1.2%

10:00

Medium

-0.8%

-2.5%

12:30
LIVE

High

7.5%

7.5%

12:30
LIVE

High

168K

165K

12:30

Medium

175K

176K

12:30

Low

3K

0K

12:30

Low

293

12:30

Medium

13.9%

12:30

Low

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

Medium

2.1%

1.9%

12:30

Low

34.5

34.4

12:30

Medium

12:30

High

7.1%

7.2%

12:30

High

18.0K

12.5K

12:30

Medium

36

12:30

Low

-23.6

12:30

Low

66.5

12:30

Low

0.1%

19:00

Medium

$14.000B

$7.966B

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