Morocco

SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS Oct. 10, 2008

+Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92. E‐mail : rolf.danielsen@seb.se
 
bÅçåçãáÅ=êÉÑçêãë=~åÇ=íê~ÇÉ=~ÖêÉÉãÉåíë=Ü~îÉ=ëí~êíÉÇ=íç=é~ó=ÇáîáÇÉåÇë=ïáíÜ=éêçëéÉÅíë=Ñçê=~=ÑìêíÜÉê=
~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáçå=íç=SB=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=OMMU=ÜÉäéÉÇ=Äó=Äìçó~åí=íçìêáëãK==oÉÖáçå~ä=áåëÉÅìêáíó=~åÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=
äáÄÉê~äáò~íáçå=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉÅçãÉ=ÖêçïáåÖ=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉëI=ÜçïÉîÉêK=
=

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~å=~ååì~ä=Ä~ëáëK=qÜ~í=áë=~=ã~êâÉÇ=áãéêçîÉãÉåí=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=NVVMÛë=ïÜÉå=ëäìÖÖáëÜ=
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éÉêÑçêã~åÅÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=î~êáÉë=ãìÅÜ=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇÉéÉåÇÉåÅÉ=çÑ=~ÖêáÅìäíìêÉ=
íç=Éêê~íáÅ=ê~áåÑ~ääK==få=OMMTI=Ñçê=áåëí~åÅÉI=ÖêçïíÜ=ÇêçééÉÇ=íç=äÉëë=íÜ~å=PB=Ñêçã=~äãçëí=
UB=~ë=Ñ~êãáåÖ=ï~ë=Üáí=Äó=ÇêçìÖÜí=íÜ~í=êÉÇìÅÉÇ=ÅÉêÉ~äë=çìíéìí=Äó=UMBK==få=åçêã~ä=
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líÜÉê=ëÉÅíçêë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóI=Äó=Åçåíê~ëíI=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=Éñé~åëáçå=~í=~=êçÄìëí=ê~íÉ=çÑ=
~äãçëí=TBI=ÜÉäéÉÇ=Äó=êáëáåÖ=çìíéìí=Ñêçã=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖI=ÅçåëíêìÅíáçå=~åÇ=ëÉêîáÅÉëI=
áåÅäìÇáåÖ=çÑÑëÜçêÉ=ëÉêîáÅÉë= Sectorwise growth rates
~åÇ=íçìêáëãK=få=OMMUI= (annual % real growth)
çÄëÉêîÉêë=ÉñéÉÅí=~=é~êíá~ä=
êÉÄçìåÇ=áå=~ÖêáÅìäíìêÉ=íç= 25
ëìééçêí=íÜÉ=çîÉê~ää=ÖêçïíÜ=
ê~íÉ=êÉíìêåáåÖ=íç=áíë=SB=íêÉåÇ= 15
é~íÜK=eáÖÜ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ê~íÉ=~í=
ÅäçëÉ=íç=PMB=çÑ=dam=ëÜçìäÇ= 5
Percent

ÜÉäé=ëìëí~áå=êçÄìëí=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=
íÜÉ=ãÉÇáìã=íÉêã=éêçîáÇÉÇ=~= -5
ëí~ÄäÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÉåîáêçåãÉåí= agricultural production remains
~åÇ=êÉÅÉåí=Äìçó~åí=ÅêÉÇáí= -15
volatile
ÖêçïíÜ=ÇçÉë=åçí=ÅçãÉ=íç=~=
ëìÇÇÉå=ÉåÇK== -25
= 2000 2002 2004 2006
eáÖÜÉê=áåÑä~íáçåW==pçãÉ=
çÄëÉêîÉêë=Ü~îÉ=ê~áëÉÇ= Agriculture Services Industries
ÅçåÅÉêåë=~Äçìí=~=êáëÉ=áå=íÜÉ= Source: Reuters EcoWin

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áãéçêí=éêáÅÉë=ÇÉëéáíÉ=ëìÄëáÇáÉë=íÜ~í=ÜÉäé=ëìééêÉëë=íÜÉ=é~ëëJíÜêçìÖÜ=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=
éêáÅÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíëK=^ë=ÖäçÄ~ä=éêáÅÉë=çÑ=ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÉåÉêÖó=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÖìå=íç=Ñ~ää=Ä~Åâ=ïÉ=
íÜáåâ=íÜáë=ÑÉ~ê=ïáää=ëççå=ëìÄëáÇÉ=ìåäÉëë=íÜÉ=NMB=êÉÅÉåí=ï~ÖÉ=ÜáâÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ëéê~ïäáåÖ=
ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÄìêÉ~ìÅê~Åó=ëÜçìäÇ=éêçîÉ=íç=Ü~îÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=êçìåÇ=ÉÑÑÉÅíëK=
=
bñíÉêå~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉë=ëÜçï=ëáÖåë=çÑ=Ñ~íáÖìÉK=cçê=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=
ëÜçïÉÇ=~=ÜÉ~äíÜó=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=éçëíáåÖ=éÉêëáëíÉåí=áÑ=ëã~ää=
ëìêéäìëÉë=ÉîÉå=áå=óÉ~êë=ïáíÜ=éççê=Ü~êîÉëíI=~åÇ=íÜÉ=Å~éáí~ä=~ÅÅçìåí=éêçÇìÅáåÖ=~=
ÖêçïáåÖ=ëìêéäìë=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=áåÑäçïë=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇáêÉÅí=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=EcafF=~åÇ=çíÜÉê=
Ñçêãë=çÑ=åçåJÇÉÄí=ÅêÉ~íáåÖ=Å~éáí~ä=áåÑäçïëK===^ë=~=êÉëìäí=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=ï~ë=~ÄäÉ=íç=
ÄìáäÇ=êÉëÉêîÉë=íç=ëíêÉåÖíÜÉå=íÜÉ=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=JJ=éÉÖÖÉÇ=íç=~=Ä~ëâÉí=
çÑ=Éìêç=~åÇ=rpAK=i~ëí=óÉ~êI=Äó=Åçåíê~ëíI=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ÄÉÖ~å=íç=ïáÇÉå=ëÜ~êéäó=~ë=
áãéçêíë=çìíé~ÅÉÇ=Éñéçêíë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=çÑ=íçìêáëãK=qÜÉ=áãéçêí=ÖêçïíÜ=ï~ë=Éñéä~áåÉÇ=Äó=

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Oct. 10, 2008

êáëáåÖ=çáä=~åÇ=ÑççÇ=éêáÅÉë=Äìí=~äëç=Äó=ÜáÖÜÉê=áãéçêíë=çÑ=êÉÖìä~ê=ãÉêÅÜ~åÇáëÉK=pìÅÜ=áë=
çÑíÉå=íÜÉ=ÇÉä~óÉÇ=ÉÑÑÉÅí=çÑ=ê~éáÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=é~êíáÅìä~ê=ïÜÉå=~=ÖêçïáåÖ=ëÜ~êÉ=çÑ=
åÉï=ÅêÉÇáíë=ÖçÉë=íç=ÜçìëáåÖ=~åÇ=ãçêíÖ~ÖÉëK==qÜÉêÉ=áë=åçï=~=êáëâ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=
~ÅÅçìåí=ëìêéäìë=ïáää=íìêå=áåíç=~=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=~äãçëí=QB=çÑ=dam=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=~åÇ=êÉã~áå=~í=
íÜ~í=äÉîÉä=áå=OMMV=~åÇ=ÄÉóçåÇK=eçïÉîÉêI=ëíêçåÖ=êÉëÉêîÉëI=ÉñÅÉÉÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=äÉîÉä=çÑ=íÜÉ=
ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=ëí~åÇáåÖ=~í=~=êÉ~ëçå~Ääó=äçï=PMBLdam=çÑ=ïÜáÅÜ=çåäó=~=Ñê~Åíáçå=áë=çå=
ëÜçêí=íÉêãëI=ãÉ~åë=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ëÜçìäÇ=åçí=éçëÉ=~åó=áããÉÇá~íÉ=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=
éêçÄäÉãK==qÜ~í=áë=~í=äÉ~ëí=~ë=äçåÖ=~ë=ã~êâÉíë=ëÉÉ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=éÉêëÉîÉêÉ=ïáíÜ=
éêìÇÉåí=éçäáÅáÉë=í~êÖÉíáåÖ=~=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ïáíÜáå=PB=çÑ=damK=få=OMMT=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ÑÉää=
íç=MITB=çÑ=dam=ÜÉäéÉÇ=Äó=ëíêçåÖ=êÉîÉåìÉ=ÖêçïíÜK=qÜ~í=ÜÉäéÉÇ=êÉÇìÅÉ=áíë=ÇÉÄíLdam=
ê~íáç=íç=RQBI=ïÜáÅÜ=áë=ëíáää=ä~êÖÉI=Äìí=äÉëë=çåÉêçìë=íÜ~å=~í=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉK==
=
bÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅáÉëW==qÜÉ= External balances
ëí~Äáäáò~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó= 20
Ü~ë=ãçîÉÇ=áå=é~ê~ääÉä=ïáíÜ=
10
ÉÅçåçãáÅ=áåíÉÖê~íáçå=íÜçìÖÜ=
íê~ÇÉ=~ÖêÉÉãÉåíë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=rp= 0
~åÇ=br=~åÇ=ëíêìÅíìê~ä=êÉÑçêãë= -10

MAD (billions)
Current Account
íÜ~í=ÄÉÖ~å=áå=É~êåÉëí=~ÑíÉê=íÜÉ= -20
éêÉëÉåí=âáåÖ=~ëÅÉåÇÉÇ=íÜÉ=
-30
íÜêçåÉ=áå=NVVV=ÑçääçïáåÖ=íÜÉ=
ÇÉ~íÜ=çÑ=Üáë=Ñ~íÜÉêK==pÉîÉê~ä= -40
ä~êÖÉ=ëí~íÉJçïåÉÇ=ÉåíÉêéêáëÉë= -50 Trade balance
ïÉêÉ=éêáî~íáòÉÇ=~åÇ=íÜÉ= -60
ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ä~áÇ=éä~åë=Ñçê= -70
ÇáîÉêëáÑóáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=
-80
~ï~ó=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=íê~Çáíáçå~ä=
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ëÉÅíçêë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~ÖêáÅìäíìêÉ=
~åÇ=íÉñíáäÉëK=péÉÅáÑáÅ=òçåÉë= Current Account, Balance Trade Balance
Source: Reuters EcoWin

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Ñçê=bìêçéÉ~å=Ñáêãë=ïÉêÉ=çéÉåÉÇI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=`~ë~ëÜçêÉ=áå=`~ë~Ää~åÅ~I=~åÇ=íÜÉ=
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ëÉÅíçêI=ïÜáÅÜ=áë=ëÉí=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=Ñêçã=TIR=ãáääáçå=íç=NM=ãáääáçå=îáëáíçêë=áå=OMNMK==líÜÉê=
éä~åë=~áã=~í=ãçÇÉêåáòáåÖ=~ÖêáÅìäíìêÉI=íÜÉ=ëçJÅ~ääÉÇ=j~êçÅ=sÉêíI=çê=~í=áãéêçîáåÖ=
íê~åëéçêí=~åÇ=áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉK==jçêçÅÅç=êÉÅÉåíäó=çéÉåÉÇ=~=åÉï=Åçåí~áåÉê=éçêí=áå=
q~åÖÉê=ïÜáÅÜ=ÅçìäÇ=ëççå=ÄÉÅçãÉ=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉëí=ëÉêîáåÖ=bìêçéÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=
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^ÅÜáääÉë=ÜÉÉä=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉã=Äìí=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~ë=ã~ÇÉ=éêçÖêÉëë=Ñçê=íÜÉáê=
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~êÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=çïåÉÇK==qÜÉ=fjc=êÉÅÉåíäó=ÅçããÉåÇÉÇ=íÜÉ=ëóëíÉã=Ñçê=áíë=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉ=íç=
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=

2
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Oct. 10, 2008

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Åçåëíáíìíáçå~ä=~äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜ~í=ÇáÇ=åçí=éêÉîÉåí=íÜÉ=háåÖ=Ñêçã=êÉã~áåáåÖ=áå=Üáë=êçäÉ=~ë=
êÉäáÖáçìë=Åçãã~åÇÉìê=~åÇ=ÅçåíáåìáåÖ=íç=ÜçäÇ=~=ÖìáÇáåÖ=Ü~åÇ=çîÉê=ÖÉåÉê~ä=éçäáíáÅ~ä=
ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíëK==m~êäá~ãÉåí~êó=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=Ü~îÉ=ãçëí=çÑ=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=Åç~äáíáçå=
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=
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How to read the chart?

Key ratios 2007 Moving out from the center Resilience
14
reduces risk.
Population (mill.) 31,6 12

10

8
GDP/capita ($) 2406 6

Macro balance 4 Liquidity

GDP (change) 2,7% 2

Inflation 2,0%
Curr.Acc. Balance/GDP -0,1%
Reserves/imports (months) 13 Absence of event
Information
risk
Budget balance/GDP -0,2% Morocco Average EM
Government debt/GDP 9% Philippines

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= mÉÉêëW Graph: The pentagon shows Morocco's risk profile as

cáíÅÜW==___J _ê~òáä relatively strong on liquidity, but weaker on macro balance
pCmW==__H qìåáëá~ and resilience compared with the representative emerging
mÜáäáééáåÉë market country. It scores about average on event risk and
information.

3
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Oct. 10, 2008

Key data: 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GDP (mill.US$) 40 50 57 60 66 75 90 89
GDP/capita (US$) 1370 1671 1889 1952 2127 2406 2847 2774
GDP (change) 3,3% 6,4% 4,7% 3,0% 7,8% 2,7% 6,0% 4,2%
Investments/GDP 25% 26% 26% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28%
Budget balance/GDP -3,9% -3,2% -3,1% -3,8% -1,8% -0,2% -3,1% -3,0%
Govt debt/GDP(*) 12% 12% 12% 12% 10% 9% 8% 7%
CPI inflation (%) 2,8% 1,2% 1,5% 0,9% 3,4% 2,0% 3,3% 3,0%
Money demand (%) 6% 9% 8% 14% 17% 16% 11% 7%
Stock prices (%change) 3% 19% 11% 63% 58%
Interest rates 3,0% 3,2% 2,4% 2,8% 2,6% 3,3% 3,9% 4,2%
Exch. Rate ($) 11,02 9,57 8,87 8,87 8,80 8,19 7,49 8,15
Trade/GDP (%) 63% 53% 50% 51% 50% 51% 47% 54%
Oil price (Brent) $29 $38 $54 $65 $73 $117 $113 $101
Billions US $
Export of goods 12,3 12,2 13,0 13,4 14,9 16,5 17,6 20,3
Imports of goods 13,3 14,3 15,7 16,9 18,0 21,6 24,8 28,1
Other: 2,4 3,7 3,7 4,5 4,9 5,0 3,5 3,6
Current account 1,5 1,6 0,9 1,0 1,8 -0,1 -3,7 -4,2
(% of GDP) 3,6% 3,1% 1,6% 1,7% 2,7% -0,1% -4,1% -4,7%
FDI (net) 0,1 2,3 0,8 1,5 2,3 2,6 3,1 3,1
Loan repayments -2,6 -3,0 -2,4 -2,1 -2,8 -2,5 -3,0 -3,5
Net other capital flows 2,7 2,8 3,2 -0,5 2,9 3,8 3,8 5,5
Balance of payments 1,7 3,7 2,5 -0,1 4,2 3,8 0,2 0,9
Reserves 9,9 13,6 16,1 16,0 20,2 24,0 24,2 25,1
Total debt 18,4 18,7 17,4 16,7 18,5 18,9 21,8 25,2
o/w short term debt 1,7 1,3 0,2 0,7 1,8 1,8 2,1 2,4
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates.
(*) Ecluding public enterprises

Rating history
Fitch (eoy) BBB-
S&P (eoy) BB BB+ BB+ BB+
Type of government:
Next elections 2012
Other:
Latest PC deal 1992 (active)
Recent IMF programs 1992 GRA

Stock market Policy Interest Rates

400 5,0
4,0
Percent

300
Index

3,0
200 2,0
1,0
100 0,0
04 05 06 07 08 00 02 04 06 08
Source: Reuters EcoWin Source: Reuters EcoWin

E x c h a n g e ra te CPI
all shares 3 ,5
1 2 ,0
MAD/US$

Percent

1 1 ,0 2 ,5
1 0 ,0
9 ,0 1 ,5
8 ,0 property
7 ,0 0 ,5
00 02 04 06 08 02 03 04 05 06 07
a r 1 2 m o nths
S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W in S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W in

4
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Oct. 10, 2008

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