Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 4

South Africa

SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS April 14, 2008

Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel : +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail : jenny.nordgren@seb.se

Political and economic uncertainty has increased. However, the economy benefits from an improved
fiscal position, a flexible exchange rate and a strong track record of managing economic shocks.

Country Risk Analysis


oçÄìëí=Äìí=ãçÇÉê~íáåÖ=ÖêçïíÜK=qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=Éñé~åÇÉÇ=êçÄìëíäó=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=
Ñçìê=óÉ~êë=ïáíÜ=~å=~îÉê~ÖÉ=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=çÑ=R=B=ÇêáîÉå=ã~áåäó=Äó=~=Åçåëìãéíáçå=
Äççã=ëéìêêÉÇ=Äó=ê~éáÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=Éñé~åëáçåK=få=OMMTI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=~=ëìêÖÉ=áå=áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=
áåîÉëíãÉåíë=J=ã~áåäó=éìÄäáÅ=Ó=ëí~êíÉÇ=íç=êÉéä~ÅÉ=éêáî~íÉ=Åçåëìãéíáçå=~ë=íÜÉ=ã~áå=
ÇêáîÉê=çÑ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÖêçïíÜ=~ë=ÜçìëÉÜçäÇë=ïÉêÉ=Üáí=Äó=íáÖÜíÉê=ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅóK=qÜÉ=
åÉÉÇ=íç=áãéêçîÉ=éççê=áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=~åÇ=éêÉé~êÉ=pçìíÜ=^ÑêáÅ~=Ñçê=íÜÉ=OMNM=cfc^=
tçêäÇ=`ìé=ëÜçìäÇ=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=ëéìê=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉã~åÇ=áå=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑÉï=óÉ~êëI=Äìí=
åçí=ÉåçìÖÜ=íç=ëí~îÉ=çÑÑ=~=ëäçïÇçïå=áå=ÖêçïíÜ=íç=PJQ=B=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=ÇìÉ=íç=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉ=
ëéáâÉë=ëáåÅÉ=ãáÇJOMMSI=~=ïÉ~âÉê=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÉÅçåçãó=~åÇ=ÉäÉÅíêáÅáíó=ëÜçêí~ÖÉë=ÜìêíáåÖ=íÜÉ=
ãáåáåÖ=ëÉÅíçê=áå=é~êíáÅìä~êK=
=
mêìÇÉåí=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅÉëK=qÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçëáíáçå=Ü~ë=Öê~Çì~ääó=áãéêçîÉÇ=~åÇ=êÉëìäíÉÇ=
áå=~=ëíÉ~Çó=êÉÇìÅíáçå=çÑ=éìÄäáÅ=ÇÉÄí=íç=dam=íç=ÄÉäçï=PM=BK=i~êÖÉ=êÉîÉåìÉ=Ö~áåë=Ñêçã=
êçÄìëí=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÖêçïíÜ=Ü~îÉ=~ääçïÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=ëéÉåÇáåÖ=çå=
áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=~åÇ=ëçÅá~ä=ëÉêîáÅÉë=ïÜáäÉ=âÉÉéáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçëáíáçå=áå=~=ëã~ää=ëìêéäìëK=
qÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=ëÜçï=~=ëã~ää=ëìêéäìë=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ãÉÇáìãJíÉêã=
ÄìÇÖÉí~êó=ëíê~íÉÖó=éÉêáçÇ=ìé=íç=ÑáëÅ~ä=óÉ~ê=OMNMLNN=ÉåÇáåÖ=j~êÅÜK=qÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâ=
Ü~ë=êÉëéçåÇÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=ÇÉã~åÇ=Äççã=~åÇ=êáëáåÖ=ÜçìëÉÜçäÇ=áåÇÉÄíÉÇåÉëë=E~äãçëí=UM=B=
çÑ=Çáëéçë~ÄäÉ=áåÅçãÉF=Äó=ê~áëáåÖ=íÜÉ=êÉéç=ê~íÉ=ëáåÅÉ=ãáÇJOMMS=Ñêçã=T=B=íç=NNKR=B=~åÇ=
áåíêçÇìÅáåÖ=íáÖÜíÉê=äÉåÇáåÖ=ëí~åÇ~êÇë=áå=ãáÇJOMMT=Ek~íáçå~ä=`êÉÇáí=^ÅíFK=^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=
íÜÉ=ëíáää=ê~éáÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=Éñé~åëáçå=ãçÇÉê~íÉÇ=ëäáÖÜíäó=ÇìêáåÖ=Ñ~ää=OMMT=íç=~=Äáí=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=
OM=B=éK~K=ïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=íç=êáëÉ=íç=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=V=B=áå=cÉÄêì~êóI=
é~êíäó=ÇìÉ=íç=ëìêÖáåÖ=ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÉåÉêÖó=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáçåK==
=
External Balance
táÇÉåáåÖ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáíK=píêçåÖ= 50
ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇ=~åÇ=ÜáÖÜ=çáä=éêáÅÉë=ïáÇÉåÉÇ=
Portfolio investment, net
40

íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=íç=~=êÉÅçêÇ=TKP=B=áå= 30 FDI, net

OMMT=ÇÉëéáíÉ=ëç~êáåÖ=ÅçããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉëK=píêçåÖ= 20
ZAR (billions)

10
éçêíÑçäáç=áåÑäçïë=Ü~îÉ=ìåíáä=êÉÅÉåíäó=ÜÉäéÉÇ= 0
Ñáå~åÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=~åÇ=ÉîÉå=~ääçïÉÇ=~=ÑìêíÜÉê= -10

ÄìáäÇJìé=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉë=íç=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å= -20 Current


account
rpa=PM=ÄáääáçåK=páåÅÉ=ä~íÉ=OMMTI=ÜçïÉîÉêI= -30
-40
éçêíÑçäáç=áåÑäçïë=Ü~îÉ=í~áäÉÇ=çÑÑ=éÉêÜ~éë=ÇìÉ= -50
íç=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ã~êâÉí=íìêãçáä=~åÇ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= 02 03 04 05 06 07

éçäáíáÅ~ä=ìåÅÉêí~áåíó=ïÜáäÉ=caf=EÑçêÉáÖå=ÇáêÉÅí=
Source: Reuters EcoWin

áåîÉëíãÉåíF=Ñäçïë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇK=bñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=íç=dam=áë=êÉä~íáîÉäó=äçï=~í=ÄÉäçï=PM=B=
Äìí=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖK=qÜÉ=Åçãéçëáíáçå=áë=~äëç=ÅÜ~åÖáåÖ=ê~éáÇäó=íçï~êÇë=~=ãìÅÜ=ä~êÖÉê=

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis April, 2008

ëÜ~êÉ=çÑ=ëÜçêíJíÉêã=ÇÉÄíI=åçï=~ÅÅçìåíáåÖ=Ñçê=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=RU=B=çÑ=íÜÉ=íçí~ä=ìé=Ñêçã=äÉëë=
íÜ~å=~=íÜáêÇ=áå=OMMRK==i~êÖÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=çïåÉêëÜáé=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëíçÅâ=ã~êâÉí=ENU=BF=~åÇ=åçå=
êÉëáÇÉåíÛë=ÜçäÇáåÖë=çÑ=äçÅ~ä=ÅìêêÉåÅó=ÇÉÄí=EQM=B=çÑ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄíF=ã~âÉ=íÜÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=
é~óãÉåíë=îìäåÉê~ÄäÉ=íç=ÖäçÄ~ä=áåîÉëíçê=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉK=
=
fåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ìåÅÉêí~áåíóK=få=ä~ëí=aÉÅÉãÄÉêI=g~ÅçÄ=wìã~=ï~ë=ÉäÉÅíÉÇ=íÜÉ=åÉï=
äÉ~ÇÉê=çÑ=^ÑêáÅ~å=k~íáçå~ä=`çåÖêÉëë=E^k`F=ÇÉÑÉ~íáåÖ=mêÉëáÇÉåí=jÄÉâá=Äó=~=ïáÇÉ=
ã~êÖáåK=qÜáë=Ü~ë=ê~áëÉÇ=ÅçåÅÉêåë=~Äçìí=íïç=ÅÉåíêÉë=çÑ=éçïÉêÓ=áå=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~åÇ=
íÜÉ=^k`=Ó=ïÜáÅÜ=ã~ó=~ÑÑÉÅí=íÜÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅíáîÉåÉëë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÇáêÉÅíáçå=çÑ=
ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅáÉë=áå=íÜÉ=êìå=ìé=íç=íÜÉ=OMMV=ÖÉåÉê~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçåëK=pçãÉ=ÑÉ~ê=íÜ~í=~=wìã~=
éêÉëáÇÉåÅó=ÅçìäÇ=äÉ~Ç=íç=ãçêÉ=äÉÑíJïáåÖ=éçäáÅáÉë=çïáåÖ=áå=é~êí=íç=íÜÉ=ëìééçêí=ÜÉ=
Éåàçóë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=`çåÖêÉëë=çÑ=pçìíÜ=^ÑêáÅ~å=qê~ÇÉ=råáçåë=E`lp^qrF=~åÇ=íÜÉ=pçìíÜ=
^ÑêáÅ~å=`çããìåáëí=m~êíó=ÇÉëéáíÉ=êÉéÉ~íÉÇ=ëí~íÉãÉåíë=Äó=wìã~=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=Äêç~Ç=íÜêìëí=
çÑ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅáÉë=ïáää=íÜÉ=ëí~ó=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=wìã~=áë=Ñ~ÅáåÖ=Åçêêìéíáçå=
ÅÜ~êÖÉë=áå=~å=ìéÅçãáåÖ=íêá~ä=áå=^ìÖìëí=ïÜáÅÜ=ÅçìäÇ=éêÉîÉåí=Üáã=Ñêçã=êìååáåÖ=Ñçê=
çÑÑáÅÉK=få=~=äçåÖÉêJíÉêã=éÉêëéÉÅíáîÉI=pçìíÜ=^ÑêáÅ~=ÅçåíáåìÉë=íç=Ñ~ÅÉ=ã~àçê=
ëçÅáçÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉëK=
=
bñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=îçä~íáäáíó=~åÇ=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉK=mçäáíáÅ~ä=ìåÅÉêí~áåíóI=ïáÇÉåáåÖ=ÅìêêÉåí=
~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=~åÇ=ïÉ~âÉê=ÖêçïíÜ=éêçëéÉÅíë=Ü~îÉ=éìí=Ççïåï~êÇ=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ=
ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉK=qÜÉ=ê~åÇ=Ü~ë=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íÉÇ=~êçìåÇ=NR=B=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=rpa=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=~åÇ=
íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=êÉã~áå=îçä~íáäÉK=vÉíI=pçìíÜ=^ÑêáÅ~=Ü~ë=éêçîÉÇ=êÉëáäáÉåí=íç=
ëÉîÉê~ä=ëÜçÅâë=áå=íÜÉ=é~ëí=~åÇ=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=çìê=êáëâ=ëÅÉå~êáç=~å~äóëáë=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=
ëÜçïë=~=êÉä~íáîÉ=ÜáÖÜ=ÇÉÖêÉÉ=çÑ=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉ=ÉîÉå=áÑ=íÜÉ=ìåéêÉÅÉÇÉåíÉÇ=êÉÅÉåí=ïáÇÉåáåÖ=
çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=íÜÉ=ìåÅÉêí~áåíó=çÑ=êÉëìäíë=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå=ÜáëíçêáÅ=
Ç~í~K=låÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉëÛ=Ü~ë=àìëí=ëí~íÉÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉáê=ê~íáåÖ=ÜçäÇë=Ñçê=~=
ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáçå=çÑ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=OM=B=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=rpaK=
JJ˘JJ=
^ë=êÉÖ~êÇë=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóI=êçÄìëí=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÖêçïíÜ=~åÇ=éêìÇÉåí=éçäáÅáÉë=Ü~îÉ=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=~å=
áãéêçîÉÇ=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçëáíáçåI=~=ÄìáäÇ=ìé=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=êÉëÉêîÉë=~åÇ=ÜÉäéÉÇ=Åçåí~áå=íÜÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=çÑ=
ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄíK=eçïÉîÉêI=~=ïáÇÉåáåÖ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=~åÇ=ÜáÖÜ=êÉäá~åÅÉ=çå=éçêíÑçäáç=
áåÑäçïë=Ñçê=áíë=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=ã~âÉë=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=îìäåÉê~ÄäÉ=íç=~=ëÜáÑí=áå=ÖäçÄ~ä=áåîÉëíçê=ëÉåíáãÉåíK=
kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=~=ÑäÉñáÄäÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=~åÇ=~=ëíêçåÖ=íê~Åâ=êÉÅçêÇ=çÑ=ã~å~ÖáåÖ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ëÜçÅâë=
~êÉ=íÉëíáãçåáÉë=íç=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉ=~åÇ=~Ç~éí~ÄáäáíóK=lå=íÜÉ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëáÇÉI=éçäáíáÅ~ä=
ìåÅÉêí~áåíó=êÉä~íÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=ÉäÉÅíáçå=çÑ=wìã~=~ë=íÜÉ=åÉï=^k`JäÉ~ÇÉê=~åÇ=äçåÖJíÉêã=
ëçÅáçÉÅçåçãáÅ=éêÉëëìêÉ=ïÉáÖÜ=çå=íÜÉ=ê~íáåÖK==
=
How to read the chart? Resilience
hÉó=ÑáÖìêÉë OMMU Moving out from the center 13
11
reduces risk.
mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääáçåëF QV 9
7
5

damLÅ~éáí~=EAF SNQS Macro balance 3 Liquidity


1

dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF QB
-1

fåÑä~íáçå= TB
`ìêêK^ÅÅK=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam JTB Absence of event
Information
risk
oÉëÉêîÉëLáãéçêíë=EãçåíÜëF Q
_ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam NB South Africa Average EM
dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam OQB
bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= mÉÉêëW dê~éÜW=qÜÉ=éÉåí~Öçå=ëÜçïë=pçìíÜ=^ÑêáÅ~Dë=êáëâ=
bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= Graph: The pentagon shows Turkey's risk worse
cáíÅÜW=___HIéçëK= eìåÖ~êó= éêçÑáäÉ=ïÜÉêÉ=áí=ëÅçêÉë=ÄÉííÉê=íÜ~å=~îÉê~ÖÉ=Ñçê=~ää=
cáíÅÜW===__JLéçë than average in all respects including to its
jççÇóDëW=_~~N= fåÇá~= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉíë=çå=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉ=~åÇ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=
jççÇóDëW=_~P= traditional competitor, Brazil, reflecting weaker
pCmW==___H= oìëëá~ ïÜáäÉ=áí=ëÅçêÉë=ÄÉäçï=~îÉê~ÖÉ=çå=äáèìáÇáíóI=ã~Åêç=
pCmW==__JLéçë= liquidity, macro balance and absence of event risk.
Ä~ä~åÅÉ=~åÇ=~ÄëÅÉåÅÉ=çÑ=ÉîÉåí=êáëâ=J=ã~áåäó=éçäáíáÅ~ä=
êáëâK=
=

2
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis April, 2008

Key data: 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GDP (bill. US$) 112 168 217 242 258 280 300 320
GDP/capita (US$) 2400 3569 4566 5055 5342 5755 6146 6524
GDP, real (change) 3.7% 3.1% 4.9% 5.0% 5.4% 5.1% 3.8% 4.3%
Investments/GDP 15% 16% 17% 17% 19% 21% 22% 23%
Budget deficit/GDP -0.1% -2.2% -2.0% -0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0%
Govt debt/GDP 40% 38% 36% 36% 32% 27% 24% 21%
CPI inflation (%) 9.2% 5.9% 1.4% 3.4% 4.6% 7.1% 7.4% 5.5%
Money demand (%) 6.3% 5.5% 17.3% 15.2% 16.0% 12.0% 7.2% 5.9%
Stock prices (%change) 16% -13% 24% 34% 44% 33%
Interest rates 12.0 11.7 7.8 7.1 7.6 9.6 10.6 8.9
Exch. Rate ($) 10.5 7.6 6.4 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.6 7.7
Trade/GDP (%) 53% 44% 45% 46% 52% 55% 56% 56%
Oil price (Brent)$ 25 29 38 54 65 73 87 77
Billions US $
Export of goods 31.9 38.7 48.3 55.3 63.9 73.9 79.6 86.6
Imports of goods 27.1 35.3 48.6 56.3 70.0 80.6 87.9 93.3
Other: -3.9 -5.3 -6.7 -8.7 -10.4 -13.8 -12.0 -11.5
Current account 0.9 -1.9 -7.0 -9.7 -16.5 -20.5 -20.2 -18.2
% of GDP 0.8% -1.1% -3.2% -4.0% -6.4% -7.3% -6.7% -5.7%
Net FDI 1.9 0.2 -0.6 5.6 -6.7 2.1 2.7 5.9
Loan repayments -3.8 -2.0 -1.5 -2.0 -3.8 -7.5 -10.0 -12.5
Net other capital flows 0.9 4.0 13.2 12.5 32.1 33.6 28.7 26.9
Balance of payments -0.1 0.4 4.1 6.4 5.0 7.7 1.1 2.1
Reserves 5.7 6.1 10.1 16.5 21.5 29.2 30.4 32.4
Total debt 24.7 26.6 27.2 29.6 33.9 35.5 38.0 40.6
o/w short term debt 7.8 7.4 7.7 9.0 13.2 20.6 26.8 31.3
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates

Rating history
Fitch BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+
Moody's Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1
S&P BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+
Type of government: ANC majority government headed by president Thabo Mbeki
Next elections Parliamentary elections 2009.
Other:
Latest PC deal n.a.
Recent IMF programs Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility (CCFF) in December 1993.

E x c h a n g e ra te C r e d it to th e d o m e s tic p r iv a t e s e c to r
1 4 3 0
1 3
2 5
1 2

1 1 2 0
USD/ZAR

Percent

1 0
1 5
9

8 1 0

7
5
6

5 0
00 0 1 0 2 03 04 0 5 06 0 7 0 8 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7
c .o .p 1 2 m o n th s
S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n
S o u rc e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

S to c k m a r k e t In fla tio n a n d r e p o r a t e
3 2500 1 4
3 0000 1 3
2 7500 1 2
2 5000 1 1 R e p o ra te

2 2500 1 0
Percent

9
Index

2 0000
1 7500 8
1 5000 7
1 2500 6
1 0000 5 C P IX
7500 4
5000 3
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0 1 02 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8
S o u r c e : R e u te rs E c o W i n S o u rc e : R e u te r s E c o W i n
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=

3
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis April, 2008

=
=
=
fãéçêí~åí>=qÜáë=ëí~íÉãÉåí=~ÑÑÉÅíë=óçìê=êáÖÜíëK=
=
=
afp`i^fjbo=
=
=
^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=áåëíáíìíáçå~ä=áåîÉëíçêë=çåäóK=^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=éêáî~íÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=çÑ=êÉÅáéáÉåíë=~åÇ=pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~=
båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäFI=EíÜÉ=_~åâF=áë=åçí=ëçäáÅáíáåÖ=~åó=~Åíáçå=Ä~ëÉÇ=ìéçå=áíK=
=
léáåáçåë=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=áå=~ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåF=êÉéêÉëÉåí=íÜÉ=Ä~åâDë=éêÉëÉåí=çéáåáçå=
çåäó=~åÇ=~êÉ=ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=ïáíÜçìí=åçíáÅÉK=^ää=áåÑçêã~íáçå=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÅçãéáäÉÇ=áå=ÖççÇ=Ñ~áíÜ=Ñêçã=
ëçìêÅÉë=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäá~ÄäÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=åç=êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáçå=çê=ï~êê~åíóI=ÉñéêÉëë=çê=áãéäáÉÇI=áë=ã~ÇÉ=ïáíÜ=
êÉëéÉÅí=íç=íÜÉ=ÅçãéäÉíÉåÉëë=çê=~ÅÅìê~Åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçåíÉåíë=~åÇ=áí=áë=åçí=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäáÉÇ=ìéçå=~ë=~ìíÜçêáí~íáîÉK=
oÉÅáéáÉåíë=~êÉ=ìêÖÉÇ=íç=Ä~ëÉ=íÜÉáê=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉÅáëáçåë=ìéçå=ëìÅÜ=áåîÉëíáÖ~íáçåë=~ë=íÜÉó=ÇÉÉã=åÉÅÉëë~êóK=
qç=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉåí=éÉêãáííÉÇ=Äó=~ééäáÅ~ÄäÉ=ä~ïI=åç=äá~Äáäáíó=ïÜ~íëçÉîÉê=áë=~ÅÅÉéíÉÇ=Ñçê=~åó=ÇáêÉÅí=çê=
ÅçåëÉèìÉåíá~ä=äçëë=~êáëáåÖ=Ñêçã=ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉëÉ=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=çê=éêáåíÉÇ=ÇçÅìãÉåíë=çê=íÜÉáê=ÅçåíÉåíëK=
=
vçìê=~ííÉåíáçå=áë=Çê~ïå=íç=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑI=çê=~åó=Éåíáíó=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=ïáíÜI=íÜÉ=Ä~åâ=çê=áíë=~ÑÑáäá~íÉëI=
çÑÑáÅÉêëI=ÇáêÉÅíçêëI=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=çê=ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêë=çÑI=ëìÅÜ=ãÉãÄÉêë=ã~ó=Ñêçã=íáãÉ=íç=íáãÉ=Ü~îÉ=~=äçåÖ=çê=ëÜçêí=
éçëáíáçå=áåI=çê=çíÜÉêïáëÉ=é~êíáÅáé~íÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉíë=ÑçêI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉë=~åÇ=ëÉÅìêáíáÉë=çÑ=ÅçìåíêáÉë=
ãÉåíáçåÉÇ=ÜÉêÉáåK=
=
pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~=båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäF=áë=áåÅçêéçê~íÉÇ=áå=píçÅâÜçäã=pïÉÇÉå=ïáíÜ=äáãáíÉÇ=äá~Äáäáíó=
~åÇ=áë=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=píçÅâÜçäã=píçÅâ=bñÅÜ~åÖÉK==
=
=
`çåÑáÇÉåíá~äáíó=kçíáÅÉW==
íÜÉ=_~åâDë=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=áë=ÅçåÑáÇÉåíá~ä=~åÇ=ã~ó=åçí=É=êÉéêçÇìÅÉÇ=çê=êÉÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=~åó=éÉêëçå=çíÜÉê=íÜ~å=
áíë=êÉÅáéáÉåí=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=Ä~åâK=^åó=éêáåíÉÇ=çê=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=ÇìéäáÅ~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë=çê=é~êíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë=
ãìëí=áåÅäìÇÉ=íÜáë=ÇáëÅä~áãÉêK=qÜÉ=_~åâ=ÇçÉë=åçí=í~âÉ=~åó=êÉëéçåëáÄáäáíó=Ñçê=ã~íÉêá~ä=ÖáîÉå=íç=íÜáêÇ=
é~êíáÉë=Äó=êÉÅáéáÉåíëK=
=
=

Centres d'intérêt liés