Kazakhstan

SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS March 25, 2008

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92. E-mail : rolf.danielsen@seb.se

The overheating warned against a year ago has come home to roost as seen in soaring inflation. At
the same time credit financed spending is slowing rapidly as banks slam the brakes on unsustainable
lending growth after feeling the pinch of global credit crunch.

Country Risk Analysis

bñÅÉääÉåí=ÖêçïíÜ=ÅçãÉë=íç=~å=ÉåÇK===cçääçïáåÖ=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë=çÑ=ÇçìÄäÉ=ÇáÖáí=ÖêçïíÜI=
ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=ëäçïÉÇ=áå=ä~íÉ=çÑ=OMMT=äÉ~îáåÖ=íçí~ä=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=Éñé~åëáçå=~í=äÉëë=íÜ~å=
VB=Ñçê=íÜÉ=óÉ~êK=^ÑíÉê=ê~éáÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=ÖêçïíÜ=Ñêçã=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=Ä~åâë=êÉ~ÅÜáåÖ=TRB=éK~K=áå=
íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ=çÑ= Domestic bank lending
OMMTI=Ä~åâë=Ü~îÉ=
5
åçï=ëä~ããÉÇ=
íÜÉ=ÄêÉ~âë=çå=
ÑìêíÜÉê=ÅêÉÇáí=
KZT (thousand billions)

4
Éñé~åëáçå=~ë=~=
ã~áå=ëçìêÅÉ=çÑ=
íÜÉáê=ÑìåÇáåÖI= 3 Corporates
ÑçêÉáÖå=ã~êâÉíëI=
ÇêáÉÇ=ìé=
ÑçääçïáåÖ=íÜÉ= 2
ëìÄJéêáãÉ=
ÇÉÄ~ÅäÉ=áå=íÜÉ=
rpK=^ë=~=êÉëìäí= 1
~Åíáîáíó=áå=íÜÉ= Households
ÅçåëíêìÅíáçå=
ëÉÅíçê=Ü~ë= 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ëäçïÉÇ=ëç=ãìÅÜ=
íÜ~í=íÜÉ= Claims to Households Claims to Private Nonfinancial Institutions
Source: Reuters EcoWin
ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ä~íÉ=
OMMT=éêçãáëÉÇ=ëéÉÅá~ä=~ëëáëí~åÅÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=Åçãé~åáÉë=íç=Éå~ÄäÉ=íÜÉã=íç=ÑáåáëÜ=
çåJÖçáåÖ=ïçêâëK=^äëç=ÅçåëìãÉê=ëéÉåÇáåÖ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÅçãÉ=ëäìÖÖáëÜK==få=OMMUI=ÖêçïíÜ=áë=
äáâÉäó=íç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=ëäçïáåÖ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=ãçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêëK==
=
qÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ïÉ~âÉåëK==aÉëéáíÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇJóÉ~ê=ÅççäáåÖI=áãéçêí=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÉåÇÉÇ=
~äãçëí=PMB=ìé=çå=OMMSK==qÜ~í=ëÉåí=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=áåíç=~=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=
PISBLdam=ÇÉëéáíÉ=ÜÉ~äíÜó=Éñéçêí=ÖêçïíÜK==qÜÉ=ä~ííÉê==êÉÑäÉÅíÉÇ=ëç~êáåÖ=çáä=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=
êáëáåÖ=ÅêìÇÉ=ÉñéçêíëI=ïÜáÅÜ==êÉéêÉëÉåí=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=SMB=çÑ=íçí~ä=ãÉêÅÜ~åÇáëÉ=ÉñéçêíëK==
qÜ~íI=íçÖÉíÜÉê=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=Å~ää=çå=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=íç=ëìééçêí=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=
íÉåÖÉ=EäçÅ~ä=ÅìêêÉåÅóF==Äó=íÜÉ=ë~äÉ=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ïçêíÜ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=AR=ÄáääK=áå=
pÉéíÉãÄÉê=~åÇ=lÅíçÄÉêI=éêÉîÉåíÉÇ=ÑìêíÜÉê=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=çÑ=êÉëÉêîÉëK=få=íÜÉ=ÉîÉåí=íÜÉó=
ÉåÇÉÇ=íÜÉ=óÉ~ê=AO=ÄáääK=äçïÉê=~í=ANR=ÄáääK=Éèìáî~äÉåí=íç=QJR=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=áãéçêí=ÅçîÉêK===
qÜÉ=ëáíì~íáçå=ïçìäÇ=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ïçêëÉ=ëíáää=Äìí=Ñçê=ä~êÖÉ=caf=EÑçêÉáÖå=ÇáêÉÅí=

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 25, 2008

áåîÉëíãÉåíF=Ñäçïë=íç=~=êÉÅçêÇ=AU=ÄáääK=íÜêçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=V=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êI=íç=ïÜáÅÜ=
çåÉ=Å~å=~ÇÇ=~í=äÉ~ëí=AOKO=ÄáääK=Ñêçã=~=ÑçêÉáÖå=áåîÉëíçê=Ñçê=íÜÉ=~Åèìáëáíáçå=çÑ=^qcI=~=
ã~àçê=h~ò~âÜ=Ä~åâ=áå=kçîÉãÄÉêK==eçïÉîÉêI=~ë=Ä~åâë=ïÉêÉ=éêÉîÉåíÉÇ=Ñêçã=
áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=íÜÉáê=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=ãìÅÜ=ÑìêíÜÉêI=íÜÉ=ê~íáç=çÑ=íçí~ä=ÇÉÄí=íç=dam=
áãéêçîÉÇ=ëäáÖÜíäó=Ñêçã=VSB=íç=VNBK==qÜ~í=áë=ëíáää=ÜáÖÜ=Äó=~åó=ãÉ~ëìêÉ=Äìí=~=ä~êÖÉ=é~êí=
çÑ=êÉéêÉëÉåíë=áåíÉêJÅçãé~åó=äç~åë=êÉä~íÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí=çÑ=h~ò~âÜëí~åÛë=çáä=~åÇ=
Ö~ë=ëÉÅíçêëK==qÜçëÉ=~êÉ=äáâÉäó=íç=ëí~ó=éêçÑáí~ÄäÉ=~åÇ=~ÄäÉ=íç=ëÉêîáÅÉ=íÜÉáê=äç~åë=ÉîÉå=áå=
ïçêëí=Å~ëÉ=ëÅÉå~êáçëK==^äëç=ïçêíÜ=âÉÉéáåÖ=áå=ãáåÇ=áë=íÜ~í=áå=~ÇÇáíáçå=íç=äáèìáÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå=
êÉëÉêîÉë=ÜÉäÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~ë=ÉîÉå=ä~êÖÉê=ÑçêÉáÖå=êÉëÉêîÉë=áå=
íÜÉ=k~íáçå~ä=cìåÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=oÉéìÄäáÅ=çÑ=h~ò~âÜëí~å=EkcohF=ïÜáÅÜ=~ìíçã~íáÅ~ääó=
êÉÅÉáîÉë=~=ÅÉêí~áå=éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ=çÑ=çáä=Éñéçêí=êÉîÉåìÉëK=^í=ÉåÇ=OMMTI=íÜÉ=ÑìåÇ=ëíççÇ=~í=
AON=ÄáääK===
=
`çåëìãÉê=éêáÅÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉëK==^í=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íáãÉ=~ååì~ä=éêáÅÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=
~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉÇ=íç=~äãçëí=NUB=áå=ä~íÉ=OMMT=ëéìêêÉÇ=Äó=ÜáÖÜÉê=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=éêáÅÉë=çÑ=ÑççÇ=
ëíìÑÑ=Äìí=~äëç=Äó=OMJPMB=ï~ÖÉ=ÜáâÉë=Ñçê=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉÅíçê=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=
çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~ê=ÇêáîáåÖ=ï~ÖÉ=ÇÉã~åÇë=áå=íÜÉ=ïÜçäÉ=ÉÅçåçãóK==qÜ~í=Ü~ë=äÉÑí=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=
Ä~åâ=áå=~=ÇáäÉãã~=Ü~îáåÖ=íç=ÑáÖÜí=êìåJ~ï~ó=éêáÅÉë=ïÜáäÉ=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÖêçïíÜ=ïÉ~âÉåë=
Ñçê=êÉ~ëçåë=çÑ=áíë=çïåK==pç=Ñ~ê=áí=Ü~ë=ê~áëÉÇ=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=íç=NNB=Ñêçã=VBI=ëíáää=äÉ~îáåÖ=
íÜÉã=ï~óë=ÄÉäçï=
íÜÉ=çåJÖçáåÖ=ê~íÉ=
Inflation
çÑ=áåÑä~íáçåI= 20
ÜçïÉîÉêK==
=
cáëÅ~ä=éçäáÅáÉë= 15
É~ëÉK==
h~ò~âÜëí~åÛë=ÑáëÅ~ä=
Percent

éçäáÅó=ëí~åÅÉ=Ü~ë=
ÄÉÉå=ÖÉåÉê~ääó= 10
ëíêçåÖ=ïáíÜ=~=
ÄìÇÖÉí=ëìêéäìë=
êÉ~ÅÜáåÖ=TIQB=áå=
5
OMMS=ÄççëíÉÇ=Äó=
ÜáÖÜ=çáä=éêáÅÉëK==få=
OMMTI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=
ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= 0
~ääçïÉÇ=íÜÉ= 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ëìêéäìë=íç=Ü~äîÉ= ar 12 months
åçíïáíÜëí~åÇáåÖ= Source: Reuters EcoWin

Åçåíáåìçìëäó=êáëáåÖ=çáä=éêáÅÉëI=~ë=áí=áãéäÉãÉåíÉÇ=ëÉîÉê~ä=í~ñ=ÅìíëW=s^q=ï~ë=êÉÇìÅÉÇ=
Äó=O=éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ=éçáåíë=~åÇ=~=éÉêëçå~ä=áåÅçãÉ=í~ñ=çå=ï~ÖÉë=~åÇ=ë~ä~êáÉë=ïÉêÉ=
êÉÇìÅÉÇ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=~ë=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=êÉéä~ÅÉÇ=~=éêçÖêÉëëáîÉ=í~ñ=ÅçÇÉ=ïáíÜ=~=ëáåÖäÉ=
Ñä~í=í~ñ=ê~íÉ=çÑ=NM=éÉêÅÉåí=çå=~ää=áåÅçãÉ=~ÄçîÉ=~=ÅÉêí~áå=íÜêÉëÜçäÇK=lå=íÜÉ=ÉñéÉåÇáíìêÉ=
ëáÇÉ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ö~îÉ=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉÅíçê=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=~=ê~áëÉ=çÑ=ëçãÉ=OMJPMBK=^ë=~=êÉëìäí=
íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ëìêéäìë=ÑÉää=íç=~å=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=PIPBLdamK==qÜÉ=ã~áå=éêçÄäÉã=ïáíÜ=íÜáë=
ÅÜ~åÖÉ=çÑ=éçäáÅáÉë=ï~ë=íÜÉ=Éñíê~=ëíáãìäìë=íç=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóK=qÜáë=ã~ó=É~ëáäó=ÄÉ=Ää~ãÉÇ=
Ñçê=ãìÅÜ=çÑ=íÜÉ=çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖ=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=é~êí=çÑ=OMMT=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ëìÄëÉèìÉåí=áåÑä~íáçå~êó=
áãé~ÅíK=cáå~åÅá~ääóI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíÛë=éçëáíáçå=êÉã~áåë=~ë=ëíêçåÖ=~ë=ÉîÉêK===
dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄí=íç=dam=áë=ïÉää=ÄÉäçï=NMB=~åÇ=áë=~ää=ÇçãÉëíáÅK=i~ëí=óÉ~ê=íÜÉ=
ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=êÉé~áÇ=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=íê~åÅÜÉ=çÑ=áíë=ëã~ää=çìíëí~åÇáåÖ=ÑçêÉáÖå=áëëìÉK==
=
mçäáíáÅ~ä=äáÑÉ=å~êêçïë=íç=çåÉ=éÉêëçåK=^í=ÖÉåÉê~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçå=áå=OMMS=íÜÉ=áåÅìãÄÉåíI=jêK=
k~ò~êÄ~óÉî=ïçå=~=êÉëçìåÇáåÖ=îáÅíçêó=~ë=åçåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=çééçëáíáçå=é~êíáÉë=ïÉêÉ=~ÄäÉ=íç=

2
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 25, 2008

é~ëë=íÜÉ=åÉï=~åÇ=ÜáÖÜÉê=íÜêÉëÜçäÇ=äáãáí=çÑ=TB=çÑ=íÜÉ=îçíÉëK=^ë=~=êÉëìäí=íÜÉ=éêÉëáÇÉåí=
Ü~ë=åçï=Ñìää=Åçåíêçä=çîÉê=çÑÑáÅá~ä=éçäáíáÅ~ä=äáÑÉ=íÜêçìÖÜ=Üáë=kìê=lí~å=Ec~íÜÉêä~åÇF=
é~êíóK=^ë=~=êÉëìäí=ÜÉ=ÅçìäÇ=ìåÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉÇ=~ëâ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=`çåëíáíìíáçå=íç=ÄÉ=~ãÉåÇÉÇ=íç=
~ääçï=Üáã=êìå=Ñçê=çÑÑáÅÉ=ãìäíáéäÉ=íáãÉë=ïáíÜçìí=äáãáíK=jêK=k~ò~êî~óÉîI=~ÖÉÇ=STI=áë=
åçï=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=êìäÉ=Ñçê=~=äáÑÉíáãÉ=ÅêçïåáåÖ=~=äçåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=Å~êÉÉêK==fí=ëí~êíÉÇ=~ë=
Åçããìåáëí=é~êíó=Äçëë=áå=íÜÉ=ä~íÉ=NVUMë=ìåÇÉê=ëçîáÉí=êìäÉ=~åÇ=ÉñíÉåÇÉÇ=áåíç=íÜÉ=NVVMë=
~ë=mêÉëáÇÉåí=Ü~îáåÖ=ÄÉÉå=ÉäÉÅíÉÇ=áå=~=ëíêáåÖ=çÑ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~îÉ=åçí=ÄÉÉå=
êÉÖ~êÇÉÇ=~ë=ÑêÉÉ=~åÇ=Ñ~êÉ=Äó=ãçëí=ÑçêÉáÖå=çÄëÉêîÉêëK=eáë=ÑÉï=êÉã~áåáåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=
çééçåÉåíë=~êÉ=åçï=~éé~êÉåíäó=ÉáíÜÉê=ëáäÉåÅÉÇ=çê=ÉñáäÉÇ=~ë=jêK=^ääáÉîI=Üáë=ëçåÓáåJä~ï=
~åÇ=~=ãÉÇá~Jã~Öå~íÉ=ïÜç=ìåíáä=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=çïåÉÇ=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÑÉï=êÉã~áåáåÖ=ÑêÉÉ=ê~Çáç=
ÅÜ~ååÉäëK=
=
pÜçêí=íç=ãÉÇáìã=íÉêã=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~ÄáäáíóW==pìÅÜ=~å=~êê~åÖÉãÉåí=ã~ó=Öì~ê~åíÉÉ=ÜáÖÜ=
ÇÉÖêÉÉ=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~Äáäáíó=~í=äÉ~ëí=áå=íÜÉ=ëÜçêí=íç=ãÉÇáìã=íÉêãK=få=íÜÉ=äçåÖÉê=íÉêã=áí=
ê~áëÉë=íÜÉ=èìÉëíáçå=çÑ=ëìÅÅÉëëáçå=ëÜçìäÇ=íÜÉ=mêÉëáÇÉåí=ÄÉ=áåÅ~é~Åáí~íÉÇ=çê=ÇáÉK=eáë=
ãçëí=äáâÉäó=ëìÅÅÉëëçê=áë=Üáë=Ç~ìÖÜíÉêI=a~êáÖ~=k~ò~êÄ~óÉîI=ïÜç=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=ÇáîçêÅÉÇ=ÜÉê=
ÜìëÄ~åÇ=ÑçääçïáåÖ=Üáë=Ñ~ää=áå=ÇáëÖê~ÅÉK==
=
k~íìê~ä=êÉëçìêÅÉëW==cçääçïáåÖ=ã~àçê=çáä=ÑáåÇë=áå=íÜÉ=NVVMë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉ=
h~ëÜ~Ö~å=
ÑáÉäÇI=íÜÉ=
ïçêäÇÛ= Oil and gas production
ä~êÖÉëí=
çìíëáÇÉ=íÜÉ= 3
m ill. b arrels/d ay

jáÇÇäÉ=b~ëíI=
h~ò~âÜëí~å=
2
áë=å~íìê~ääó=
~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=
2
ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=
ÑçêíìåÉë=çÑ=
1
íÜÉ=çáä= 1
ã~êâÉíK==
qçí~ä= 0
êÉëÉêîÉë=~êÉ=
Éëíáã~íÉÇ=íç=
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
ëçãÉ=PU=ÄáääK=
Ä~êêÉäë=çÑ=
ïÜáÅÜ=~ë= Output Forecast
ãìÅÜ=~ë=~=
íÜáêÇ=ã~ó=ÄÉ=ÅçããÉêÅá~ääó=Éñéäçáí~ÄäÉK=qÜ~í=ã~âÉë=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉëí=çáäJ=
ÅçìåíêáÉë=çìíëáÇÉ=lmb`I=åçí=Ñ~ê=ÄÉÜáåÇ=oìëëá~K=mêçÇìÅíáçå=Ü~ë=~äêÉ~Çó=é~ëëÉÇ=N=
ãÄéÇ=EãáääK=_~êêÉäë=éÉê=Ç~óF=~åÇ=áë=êáëáåÖ=ê~éáÇäóK=qÜÉ=~áã=áë=ÄÉÉå=íç=êÉ~ÅÜ=P=ãÄéÇI=
Äìí=íÜáë=Öç~ä=ã~ó=åçí=ÄÉÉå=ïáíÜáå=êÉ~ÅÜ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=OMNR=~í=íÜÉ=É~êäáÉëíK=qÜÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí=
çÑ=íÜÉ=h~ëÜ~Ö~å=ÑáÉäÇI==áå=é~êíáÅìä~êI==Ü~ë=ëìÑÑÉêÉÇ=ëÉêáçìë=ÇÉä~óë=ÇìÉ=íç=íÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~åÇ=
ÉåîáêçåãÉåí~ä=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë=~åÇ=áíë=ã~áå=çéÉê~íçêI==íÜÉ=fí~äá~å=çáä=Åçãé~åó=båáI=Ü~ë=
ÉåÅçìåíÉêÉÇ=ëÉêáçìë=Åçëí=çîÉêJêìåë=íÜ~í=ÉîÉåíì~ääó=ïáää=ëéáää=çîÉê=áåíç=äçëëÉë=~äëç=Ñçê=
íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK=qÜ~í=Ü~ë=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=~=ëÉêáçìë=ÇáëéìíÉ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=båá=~åÇ=íÜÉ=
ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK=qÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=Ü~ë=åçï=é~ëëÉÇ=~=ä~ï=íÜ~í=ÉëëÉåíá~ääó=ÖáîÉë=áí=íÜÉ=êáÖÜí=íç=
êÉíêç~ÅíáîÉäó=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=~åó=~ÖêÉÉãÉåí=~ë=áí=ïáëÜÉëK=^ë=ëìÅÜ=~Åíáçåë=~êÉ=åçí=
ìåéêÉÅÉÇÉåíÉÇ=~ãçåÖ=çáä=êáÅÜ=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉí=ÅçìåíêáÉëI=ãçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ëíáää=íÜáåâ=
båá=~åÇ=çíÜÉê=éêáî~íÉ=çéÉê~íçêë=ïáää=ÄáíÉ=íÜÉ=ÄìääÉí=~åÇ=~ÅÅÉéí=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíÛë=åÉï=
íÉêãë=éêçîáÇÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇçÉë=åçí=ÉñÉêÅáëÉ=áíë=åÉï=êáÖÜíë=~í=ê~åÇçãK=JJ==få=
~ÇÇáíáçå=íç=ä~êÖÉ=çáä=êÉëçìêÅÉëI=h~ò~âÜëí~å=~äëç=Åçãã~åÇë=ä~êÖÉ=Ö~ë=ÇÉéçëáíëI=ã~áåäó=

3
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 25, 2008

~ë=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=Ö~ëK==qÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=áë=~äëç=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇÛë=êáÅÜÉëí=áå=ãÉí~äë=ëìÅÜ=~ë=
ÖçäÇI=ÅçééÉê=~åÇ=äÉ~ÇK==
=
píê~íÉÖáÅ=éçëáíáçåK==_ÉáåÖ=ä~åÇäçÅâÉÇ=~åÇ=ïáíÜ=ÜÉ~îó=ëíìÑÑ=ëìÅÜ=~ë=çáä=~åÇ=ãÉí~äë=~ë=
ã~áå=Éñéçêí=éêçÇìÅíëI=h~ò~âÜëí~å=ÇÉéÉåÇë=çå=ÖççÇ=êÉä~íáçåë=íç=áíë=åÉáÖÜÄçêëK==
iìÅâáäó=íÜÉó=~êÉ=ëÉîÉê~ä=~åÇ=h~ò~âÜëí~å=Ü~ë=ëâáääÑìääó=éä~óÉÇ=çå=íÜÉáê=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåÅÉë=íç=
áíë=çïå=ÄÉåÉÑáíK=jçëí=íê~åëéçêí=êçìíÉë=ëíáää=Öç=íÜêçìÖÜ=oìëëá~I=Äìí=áí=áë=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=Ö~ëJ
éáéÉäáåÉë=íç=`Üáå~=~åÇ=íç=^òÉêÄ~áà~å=Ñêçã=ïÜÉêÉ=áí=Å~å=êÉ~ÅÜ=tÉëíÉêå=ã~êâÉíë=
ÇáêÉÅíäó=íÜêçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=_~âìJ`ÉóÜ~å=éáéÉäáåÉK==fí=Ü~ë=~äëç=âÉéí=~=ÖççÇ=êÉä~íáçåëÜáé=íç=
íÜÉ=rp=~åÇ=ÖáîÉå=Çáéäçã~íáÅ=ëìééçêí=íç=rp=ÑçêÉáÖå=~åÇ=ëÉÅìêáíó=éçäáÅó=áåáíá~íáîÉëK=
jçëí=êÉÅÉåíäó=áí=ï~ë=áåîáíÉÇ=íç=ÅÜ~áê=íÜÉ=l`pbI=íÜÉ=áåëíêìãÉåí~ä=bìêçéÉ~å=
çêÖ~åáò~íáçå=Ñçê=íÜÉ=éêçãçíáçå=çÑ=ÇÉãçÅê~ÅóI=åçí=~=ãáåçê=ÑÉ~í=Ñçê=~=Åçìåíêó=ïáíÜ=
ÇÉãçÅê~íáÅ=ÅêÉÇÉåíá~äë=áå=íÜÉ=äçïÉëí=éçëëáÄäÉ=Å~íÉÖçêó=êÉÖ~êÇáåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÑêÉÉÇçãë=
~åÇ=Åçêêìéíáçå=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ëìÅÜ=~ë=íÜÉ=rp=cêÉÉÇçã=eçìëÉ=~åÇ=bìêçéÉÛë=
qê~åëé~êÉåÅó=fåíÉêå~íáçå~äK====
JGJ=
b~êäó=áå=íÜÉ=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉI=h~ò~âÜëí~å=~ÅÜáÉîÉÇ=ëìêéêáëáåÖäó=Ñ~ëí=~=ÜáÖÜ=ê~åâáåÖ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=
ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉë=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå=ëçìåÇ=éçäáÅáÉë=~åÇ=ÖêçïáåÖ=çáäJêáÅÜÉëK===i~ëí=óÉ~ê=áí=ëìÑÑÉêÉÇ=ëçãÉ=
ëÉíJÄ~Åâë=~ë=íïç=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉë=éìí=áí=çå=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=çìíäççâI=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ=íÜÉ=ãçêÉ=ìåÅÉêí~áå=
çìíäççâ=Ñçê=áíë=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçê=~ÑíÉê=óÉ~êë=çÑ=ÉñÅÉéíáçå~ä=ÜáÖÜ=ÖêçïíÜ=çå=íÜÉ=Ä~Åâ=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=
ÑìåÇáåÖK=qÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=Ü~ë=ÄÉÅçãÉ=ãçêÉ=Åçëíäó=~ÑíÉê=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êáëâ=~îÉêëáçå=Ü~ë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=áå=
íÜÉ=ï~âÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëìÄJéêáãÉ=ÅêáëáëK=få=çìê=îáÉï=íÜáë=ëÜçìäÇ=åçí=ÅçãÉ=~ë=ëìêéêáëÉ=íç=éêìÇÉåíäó=
Å~ìíáçìë=áåîÉëíçêë=~åÇ=ã~ó=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=åçí=ï~êê~åí=~=ëÜ~êé=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=áå=íÜÉáê=îáÉï=çå=
h~ò~âÜëí~åÛë=ÅêÉÇáíïçêíÜáåÉëëI=~ë=äçåÖ=~ë=íÜÉ=éêÉëÉåí=ÖäçÄ~ä=Åêáëáë=ÇçÉë=åçí=íìêå=áåíç=~=
éêçäçåÖÉÇ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÇÉéêÉëëáçåK=^ë=äçåÖ=~ë=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=ëí~óë=~ÄçîÉ=ATM=Ççää~êëLÄ~êêÉäI=
h~ò~âÜëí~å=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~ÄäÉ=íç=~Çàìëí=íç=äçïÉê=Éñéçêí=êÉîÉåìÉë=~åÇ=ëí~åÇë=~=ÖççÇ=ÅÜ~åÅÉ=çÑ=
êÉÖ~áåáåÖ=ãìÅÜ=çÑ=áíë=êÉä~íáçåëÜáé=ïáíÜ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=Å~éáí~ä=ã~êâÉíë=áå=íÜÉ=åçí=íçç=Çáëí~åí=
ÑìíìêÉK=_ó=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íçâÉå=áí=áë=~äëç=Ñ~áê=íç=åçíÉ=íÜ~í=êÉÅÉåí=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë=Ü~îÉ=ÉñéçëÉÇ=
íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=Ä~ëáÅ=îìäåÉê~ÄáäáíáÉëK==
=
=

How to read the chart? Resilience

Key ratios 2008 Moving out from the center 12

10
reduces risk.
Population (mill.) 15,4 8

GDP/capita ($) 6874 Macro balance 4

Liquidity
2
GDP (change) 5,0% 0

Inflation 6,5%
Curr.Acc. Balance/GDP -2,2%
Absence of event
Reserves/imports (months) 4 risk
Information

Budget balance/GDP 2,5% Kazakhstan Average EM

Russia
Government debt/GDP 10%

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= mÉÉêëW Graph: The pentagon shows the creditworthiness of

cáíÅÜW=___LåÉÖ= oìëëá~= Kazakhstan as "flat" meaning strong on liquidity and
jççÇóDëW=_~~O= fåÇá~= macro balance but weaker on event risk and information
pCmW==___LåÉÖ ^äÖÉêá~= compared with the average EM country or one of its peers,
Russia. Resilience is close to average.
=
=

4
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 25, 2008

=
Key data: 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GDP (bill.US$) 24,6 30,8 43,2 57,1 77,2 95,1 106,8 117,6
GDP/capita (US$) 1650 2054 2856 3755 5044 6170 6874 7517
GDP (change) 9,8% 9,3% 9,6% 9,7% 10,6% 8,1% 5,0% 5,5%
Investments/GDP 26% 26% 26% 31% 33% 34% 35% 35%
Budget balance/GDP 1,0% 2,0% 1,9% 5,1% 7,4% 3,3% 2,5% 4,2%
Govt debt/GDP 19% 14% 10% 7% 6% 7% 10% 10%
CPI inflation (%) 5,8% 6,5% 6,9% 7,6% 8,5% 10,8% 6,5% 5,5%
Money demand (%) 30% 37% 68% 26% 78% 25%
Stock prices (%change)
Interest rates 5,2% 5,9% 3,3% 3,3% 3,3% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0%
Exch. Rate ($) 153,28 149,58 136,04 132,88 126,09 122,55 125,61 128,75
Trade/GDP (%) 94% 92% 96% 98% 96% 94% 99% 92%
Oil price (Brent) $25 $29 $38 $54 $65 $73 $87 $77
Billions US $
Export of goods 11,6 14,9 22,6 30,5 41,6 48,6 56,5 57,6
Imports of goods 11,6 13,3 18,8 25,5 32,8 41,3 48,8 50,7
Other: -1,1 -1,7 -2,8 -5,4 -9,3 -10,7 -10,1 -9,4
Current account -1,1 -0,1 1,0 -0,3 -0,6 -3,5 -2,4 -2,4
(% of GDP) -4,6% -0,4% 2,4% -0,6% -0,8% -3,6% -2,2% -2,1%
FDI 2,6 2,1 4,2 2,0 6,2 8,2 4,0 4,2
Loan repayments -2,7 -4,6 -7,8 -11,6 -11,6 -13,6 -13,7 -7,6
Net other capital flows 1,8 4,2 6,9 7,6 17,7 6,7 13,7 7,6
Balance of payments 0,6 1,6 4,3 -2,4 11,7 -2,2 1,6 1,7
Reserves 2,6 4,2 8,5 6,1 17,8 15,5 17,2 18,9
Total debt 18,8 22,9 32,7 43,4 74,0 87,4 84,4 95,8
o/w short term debt 1,8 2,8 3,9 8,0 12,4 19,8 20,2 20,4
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates.

Rating history
Fitch (eoy) BB- BB BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB
S&P (eoy) BB- BB BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB
Type of government: Parliamentary democracy in form, but autocracy in practice
Next elections 2012
Other:
Latest PC deal
Recent IMF programs EFF 1999-2002 (allocated amount not utilized)

Spot Rates, KZT/US$ Deposit Rates, 1 Month

150 20,0
130
Percent

15,0
USD/KZT

110
10,0
90
70 5,0
50 0,0
1996 2000 2004 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: Reuters EcoWin Source: Reuters EcoWin

Real Effective Exchange Rate International reserves

135 25,0
125
USD (billions)

20,0
115 15,0
Index

105 10,0
95 5,0
85 0,0
1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
SEB (eoy) 14 12
Source: Reuters EcoWin Source: Reuters EcoWin

5
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 25, 2008

=
fãéçêí~åí>=qÜáë=ëí~íÉãÉåí=~ÑÑÉÅíë=óçìê=êáÖÜíëK=
=
=
afp`i^fjbo=
=
=
^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=áåëíáíìíáçå~ä=áåîÉëíçêë=çåäóK=^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=éêáî~íÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=çÑ=êÉÅáéáÉåíë=~åÇ=pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~=
båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäFI=EíÜÉ=_~åâF=áë=åçí=ëçäáÅáíáåÖ=~åó=~Åíáçå=Ä~ëÉÇ=ìéçå=áíK=
=
léáåáçåë=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=áå=~ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåF=êÉéêÉëÉåí=íÜÉ=Ä~åâDë=éêÉëÉåí=çéáåáçå=
çåäó=~åÇ=~êÉ=ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=ïáíÜçìí=åçíáÅÉK=^ää=áåÑçêã~íáçå=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÅçãéáäÉÇ=áå=ÖççÇ=Ñ~áíÜ=Ñêçã=
ëçìêÅÉë=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäá~ÄäÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=åç=êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáçå=çê=ï~êê~åíóI=ÉñéêÉëë=çê=áãéäáÉÇI=áë=ã~ÇÉ=ïáíÜ=
êÉëéÉÅí=íç=íÜÉ=ÅçãéäÉíÉåÉëë=çê=~ÅÅìê~Åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçåíÉåíë=~åÇ=áí=áë=åçí=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäáÉÇ=ìéçå=~ë=~ìíÜçêáí~íáîÉK=
oÉÅáéáÉåíë=~êÉ=ìêÖÉÇ=íç=Ä~ëÉ=íÜÉáê=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉÅáëáçåë=ìéçå=ëìÅÜ=áåîÉëíáÖ~íáçåë=~ë=íÜÉó=ÇÉÉã=åÉÅÉëë~êóK=
qç=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉåí=éÉêãáííÉÇ=Äó=~ééäáÅ~ÄäÉ=ä~ïI=åç=äá~Äáäáíó=ïÜ~íëçÉîÉê=áë=~ÅÅÉéíÉÇ=Ñçê=~åó=ÇáêÉÅí=çê=
ÅçåëÉèìÉåíá~ä=äçëë=~êáëáåÖ=Ñêçã=ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉëÉ=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=çê=éêáåíÉÇ=ÇçÅìãÉåíë=çê=íÜÉáê=ÅçåíÉåíëK=
=
vçìê=~ííÉåíáçå=áë=Çê~ïå=íç=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑI=çê=~åó=Éåíáíó=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=ïáíÜI=íÜÉ=Ä~åâ=çê=áíë=~ÑÑáäá~íÉëI=
çÑÑáÅÉêëI=ÇáêÉÅíçêëI=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=çê=ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêë=çÑI=ëìÅÜ=ãÉãÄÉêë=ã~ó=Ñêçã=íáãÉ=íç=íáãÉ=Ü~îÉ=~=äçåÖ=çê=ëÜçêí=
éçëáíáçå=áåI=çê=çíÜÉêïáëÉ=é~êíáÅáé~íÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉíë=ÑçêI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉë=~åÇ=ëÉÅìêáíáÉë=çÑ=ÅçìåíêáÉë=ãÉåíáçåÉÇ=
ÜÉêÉáåK=
=
pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~=båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäF=áë=áåÅçêéçê~íÉÇ=áå=píçÅâÜçäã=pïÉÇÉå=ïáíÜ=äáãáíÉÇ=äá~Äáäáíó=
~åÇ=áë=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=píçÅâÜçäã=píçÅâ=bñÅÜ~åÖÉK==
=
=
`çåÑáÇÉåíá~äáíó=kçíáÅÉW==
íÜÉ=_~åâDë=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=áë=ÅçåÑáÇÉåíá~ä=~åÇ=ã~ó=åçí=É=êÉéêçÇìÅÉÇ=çê=êÉÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=~åó=éÉêëçå=çíÜÉê=íÜ~å=
áíë=êÉÅáéáÉåí=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=Ä~åâK=^åó=éêáåíÉÇ=çê=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=ÇìéäáÅ~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë=çê=é~êíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë=
ãìëí=áåÅäìÇÉ=íÜáë=ÇáëÅä~áãÉêK=qÜÉ=_~åâ=ÇçÉë=åçí=í~âÉ=~åó=êÉëéçåëáÄáäáíó=Ñçê=ã~íÉêá~ä=ÖáîÉå=íç=íÜáêÇ=
é~êíáÉë=Äó=êÉÅáéáÉåíëK=
=