Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar - Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Monsoon covers half way mark; eases drought concerns
Ample annual monsoon rains have covered half of India two days ahead of the usual date and more hefty downpours are expected next week, weather experts said on Thursday, easing concern over southwestern regions parched by drought. The June to September monsoon is crucial for farm output and economic growth in India, where just over half of arable land is rain-fed. The farm sector makes up about 15 percent of the nearly $2-trillion economy that is Asia's third-biggest. (Source: Reuters)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on June 13, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18827 5699 58.01 96.69 1378

-1.12 -1.06 0.29 0.84 -1.02

-3.55 -3.75 1.89 2.04 -2.69

-4.39 -4.70 5.78 1.60 -3.97

11.53 11.28 4.38 17.03 -14.86

.Source: Reuters

Sugar sector may suffer losses of over Rs 1,000 cr in 2012-13

Sugar industry is expected to post losses of over Rs 1,000 crore in 201213 marketing year ending September on higher input cost vis-a-vis output prices, according to a research report by Crisil. The report revealed that the average price paid by sugar mills for sugarcane rose by 14 per cent annually, while prices of sweetener gone up by only 3 per cent annually during 2010-11 and 2012-13 marketing years (OctoberSeptember). CRISIL Research expects the Indian sugar industrys net losses to increase to over Rs 10 billion (Rs 1,000 crore) in sugar season 2012-13 (October to September) due to the widening gap between sugarcane and sugar prices, the agency said in a statement. Crisil forecast that the situation would deteriorate in the next marketing year. (Source: Business Line)

Record Corn and Soybean Yields Predicted, but Late Planting May Cut Harvest
The US government is predicting record corn and soybean yields this year despite intense spring showers that have delayed planting, damaged crops already in the ground and prevented farmers from sowing all of their seeds. But the projections are based on estimates made before the heavy rains came about how many acres of crops will be planted. The Department of Agriculture, in a report released on Wednesday, estimated that 14 billion bushels of corn will be produced this year, a forecast that, if it holds true, would crush the previous record of 13.1 billion set four years ago. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report also forecast that a record 3.39 billion bushels of soybeans would be harvested. (Source: Factiva)

Veg oil imports up at 9.2 lakh tonnes in May

Vegetable oil imports rose 2 per cent to 9.17 lakh tonnes last month against 8.96 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tonnes in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994. The record import of RBD palmolein is attributed to reduction in duty difference between crude and refined palmolein and inverted duty structure by palm oil exporting countries. During November 2012-May 2013, vegetable oil imports rose 10.43 per cent to 61.97 lakh tonnes compared to 56.11 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period. Oil year runs from November to October.
(Source: Business Line)

World cereal production to rise 6.5 pct in 2013/14-FAO

World cereal production is expected to rise 6.5 percent in 2013/14 to reach a record 2.46 billion tonnes, mainly due to higher wheat output and a rebound in maize production in the United States, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. A likely replenishment in world cereal stocks could lead to easing prices in the new season, the FAO said. FAO expects wheat production to rise to 702 million tonnes in 2013/14. Coarse grains output is seen rising to 1.26 billion tonnes and rice production is seen edging up to 489.9 million tonnes. (Source: Reuters)

Pre-monsoons shower relief on farmers in Punjab, Haryana

Pre-monsoon showers in many parts of Punjab and Haryana on Thursday are likely to ease transplanting of paddy and also help in growth of other kharif crops, say farmers and experts. The IMD has forecast more rainfall in the region in the next four days, which is likely to provide relief to crops sown in areas which are either rain-fed or irrigated by canals in both the states. Paddy transplantation commenced on June 10 in the state, which is likely to gather pace now as farmers and labourers will not have to work in scorching conditions since the temperatures have dropped considerably. Moreover, these rains are likely to benefit the crops sown last month like cotton, sugarcane and pulses. (The Times of India)

Karnataka announces additional Rs 1,000/quintal for copra

The Karnataka government today decided to give an additional support price of Rs 1,000 per quintal for copra following crash of prices. In addition to the minimum support price of Rs 5,500 per quintal, a meeting of the Cabinet chaired by Chief Minister, Siddaramaiah decided to give the additional amount. The government has decided to open more procurement centres of the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) for the benefit of copra farmers. (Source:
Business Line)

Rice crop seen at record as early rains spur sowing

Rice output in India, the world's second-largest grower, is set to climb to a record as early arrival of monsoon over the biggest growing regions spurs planting, potentially boosting exports. The monsoon crop might increase 2.4 per cent to 95 million tonnes from 92.75 million tonnes a year earlier. The crop is planted from June and harvested from October and accounts for 90 per cent of the nation's total production. A bigger harvest might help India retain its position as the top exporter and further lower global food costs tracked by the United Nations' Food & Agriculture Organization, which fell in May for the first time in four months. (Source: Business Standard)

Argentina's planned farm strike could increase corn price

Scores of grain export vessels will be delayed in Argentina next week due to a planned sales strike by farmers, potentially causing millions of dollars in extra shipping costs to be passed along to final consumers, a key port official said on Thursday. The South American grains powerhouse is the world's No. 3 corn and soybean supplier. But growers have a contentious relationship with the government and have called a five-day suspension of crop sales starting on Saturday to protest President Cristina Fernandez's trade and economic policies. A total of 149 ships were already lined up along Argentina's waterways on Thursday, waiting to load corn, soy and other agricultural products. The corn market is particularly hungry after a U.S. drought in 2012 dramatically reduced world supply. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana July futures continued to gain for the third consecutive session and settled 0.52% higher on Thursday. Declining arrivals from its peak coupled with lower level buying by stockists has supported an upside in the prices. However, favorable monsoon is seen capping sharp gains. Favorable progress and distribution of monsoon has raised hopes of kharif Pulses sowing. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year due to deficient rains. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is also capping sharp upside in the chana prices.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX June'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on June 13, 2013 % change Last 3210 3211 Prev day -1.23 0.38 WoW -2.06 0.38 MoM -3.77 -3.37
Source: Reuters

YoY -23.38 -20.97

Spread Matrix
Closing 3210 3211 3251 3319 20-Jun-13 1 0 -

as on June 13, 2013 19-Jul-13 41 40 0 20-Aug-13 109 108 68 0 as on June 12, 2013 Stocks as on 11th June 73708 44189 9438 127335 Qty in Process 2544 655 1522 4751

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 12th June 73916 43074 9496 126486 Qty in Process 1647 469 994 3110

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX July contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana is expected to continue to extend its gains in the intraday. Declining arrivals as well as good demand from stockists at lower price levels may support prices. However, comfortable supplies with a good monsoon progress may cap sharp upside in the prices. Seasonal pattern in chana indicates that prices generally bottom out in May when arrivals reach their peak, while they start recovering gradually June onwards with declining supply pressure. Thus, going forward downside seems to be limited as prices are near their MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana July Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 14, 2013 Resistance 3270-3300

3190-3220

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean July futures remained under downside pressure in the early part of the session on account of good progress of monsoon. However, price recovered towards the end and settled marginally higher by 0.15% on Thursday. Although overall price trend remained firm since past few weeks, sharp upside was capped on the back of good progress of monsoon & hopes of better sowing. The planting of kharif oilseeds such as groundnut, sesame and castor has started in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Soybean sowing has commenced with good monsoon over Maharashtra and MP. Monsoon has covered almost half part of India two days before the normal schedule. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT Soybean settled marginally lower by 2 percent on Thursday lower as weekly export sales report indicates weak demand. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Thursday that net weekly soybean export sales totaled 480,600 metric tons Prices have gained in the past few weeks on account of delayed planting and tight near-term supplies in the U.S. However, the government is predicting record soybean yields this year despite intense spring showers that have delayed planting, damaged crops already in the ground and prevented farmers from sowing all of their seeds. Soybean planting has been delayed due to heavy rains in the US Midwest and is reported at 71% as against 57% last week. However, it is much lower as against 97% last year and 5 year average of 84%.

Market Highlights

as on June 13, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.10 1.42 -0.84 -2 -0.75 -0.06 -0.40 -1.11 -0.26 -0.20

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX June '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX June '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3915 3774 1510 3498 3485

MoM -3.45 -7.87 -0.71 0.33 -0.17

YoY 12.99 9.63 7.24 -8.82 -5.86

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3915 3774 3795.5 3207.5 20-Jun-13 -141 0 19-Jul-13 -119.5 21.5 0 -

as on June 13, 2013 20-Aug-13 -707.5 -566.5 -588 0 as on June13, 2013 19-Jul-13 24.55 38 0 20-Aug-13 70.55 84 46 0 as on 12th June 2013 Qty in Process 2341 275 0 2616 as on 12th June 2013 Qty in Process 0 222 638 11 1681 252 232 3036 NCDEX July contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3498.45 3485 3523 3569 20-Jun-13 -13.45 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 12th June 1569 1630 401 17724 Stocks as on 12th June 2960 2952 19361 634 51029 4160 1550 82646 Qty in Process 2177 275 0 2452 Qty in Process 0 91 322 0 2195 271 30 2909 Stocks as on 11th June 15159 1630 401 17190 Stocks as on 11th June 2960 2952 19200 634 50124 3999 1550 81419

Outlook
Soybean July futures may remain under downside pressure during the intraday as monsoon has advanced in the major soybean growing belts of MP and Maharashtra. Higher returns earned last year along with good monsoon may boost sowing this year too.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard futures July futures declined sharply in the early part of the session on account of higher supplies of the same in Rajasthan, the largest producing belt. However, prices recovered towards the end as lower level buying led to short coverings. Farmers are liquidating stocks before they start of kharif sowing. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed futures may decline further on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets. Spillover effect from soybean may also be seen on mustard prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX July Futures RM Seed NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 14, 2013 Support 3780-3790 3500-3512 Resistance 3812-3822 3530-3538

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil July contract remained firm in the early part of the session on Thursday on account of week rupee. However, with appreciation in the rupee towards the second half, ref soy oil prices declined and thus settled 0.22% lower. Edible oil prices have gained in the domestic markets in the last 2-3 weeks on account of weak rupee which was making imports costlier. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. Vegetable oil imports rose 2% to 9.17 lakh tonnes in May 2013 against 8.96 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period. During Oil year 2012-13 (Nov- Oct), vegetable oil imports so far rose 10.43% to 61.97 lakh tn compared to 56.11 lakh tn year earlier. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kgs `/10 kgs USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 710.7 709.7 47.84 2389 495.9 Prev day -0.22 -0.15 -0.56 -1.28 -0.18

as on June 13, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX June '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia June '13 Fut CPO-MCX- June '13 Fut

WoW 0.46 0.95 -0.66 0.00 1.45

MoM -2.09 -1.71 -3.57 4.73 5.56

YoY -1.61 -1.65 -2.57 -18.10 -9.28

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 710.65 709.65 693.45 687.75 20-Jun-13 -1 0 19-Jul-13 -17.2 -16.2 0 -

as on June 13, 2013 20-Aug-13 -22.9 -21.9 -5.7 0 as on June 13, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil prices may decline in the intraday taking cues from weak Malaysian palm prices which may decline further in the intraday. Prices may also take cues from rupee movement.

CPO Spread Matrix

30-Jun-13 30-Jul-13 30-Aug-13 Closing 495.9 497.6 498.8 30-Jun-13 0 30-Jul-13 1.7 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices declined yesterday taking cues from Malaysian palm oil futures along with appreciation in the rupee. Malaysian palm oil futures settled 0.2% higher yesterday on account of good demand ahead of Ramadan. It is expected that output in Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, to slow this month and help to further ease stocks that have dipped below the psychological 2 million tonne mark to 1.93 million tonnes in April. Out of the total Indian edible oil imports, In the first seven months of 2012-13 oil year, palm oil imports increased to 50.82 lakh tonnes against 41.64 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period previous year. However, soft oils imports fell to 9.47 lakh tonnes from 13.22 lakh tonnes. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994, the Solvent Extractors Association of India said in a statement yesterday. The association attributed the record import of RBD palmolein to reduction in duty difference between crude and refined palmolein and inverted duty structure by palm oil exporting countries.

30-Aug-13 2.9 1.2 0 NCDEX July contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX June contract

Outlook
CPO prices may decline taking cues from the Malaysian palm oil markets. However, downside will be limited as good demand and lower yield period of Malaysian palm oil may again push prices higher in the coming weeks.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil July NCDEX Futures CPO MCX June Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 14, 2013 Support 688-691 488-492 Resistance 696-700 499-503
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
After opening higher in the early trades, Jeera July futures corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking and settled 0.34% lower. Higher arrivals have pressurized prices while overseas demand has supported prices at lower levels. Currently, about 25-30% of total arrivals have been exported, mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. Due to the ongoing geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey, there are production as well as supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. A lot of export orders are diverted to India due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,450 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13432 12960 5488 5498 Prev day -0.26 0.02 0.72 2.35

as on June 13, 2013 % Change WoW 0.15 -0.52 -4.15 -2.24 MoM -0.54 -2.21 -8.34 -5.17 YoY -0.32 0.21 57.75 53.32

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX June '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX June '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 13432.3 12960 13135 13422.5 20-Jun-13 -472.3 0 19-Jul-13 -297.3 175 0 -

as on June 13, 2013 20-Aug-13 -9.8 462.5 287.5 0 as on June 13, 2013 20-Jun-13 10.5 0 19-Jul-13 16.5 6 0 20-Aug-13 92.5 82 76 0 as on 12th June 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 11th June Process 679 7537 8216 3834 NCDEX July contract 39 138 177 180

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 10,000 bags on Thursday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-42 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags. Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 5487.5 5498 5504 5580

Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Overseas demand is expected support an upside in the prices. However, good supplies may pressurize prices at higher levels. Overall trend remain positive for the Jeera prices due to overseas demand as Syria & Turkey have stopped shipments which may keep prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 12th June 718 7492 8210 3924 Qty in Process 24 114 138 387

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded higher extending previous days gains on account of improvement in spot demand amidst declining arrivals as well as fresh export enquiries and settled 1.78% higher on Thursday. Prices have declined sharply in the past few weeks due to lack of fresh overseas demand coupled with huge carryover stocks. NCDEX issued a circular whereby the earlier circular regarding modification in the tick size and lot size has been kept in abeyance. The regulator also withdrew special margins on the long side.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 2,500 bags and 3,000 bags on Thursday. Exports of Turmeric between Apr 2012Jan 2013 stood at 66,550 tn, a decline of 4%. (Source: Factiva) Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs) Outlook Turmeric may trade sideways with a positive bias today. Spot demand coupled with declining arrivals and fresh export enquiries may support prices at lower levels. However, huge carryover stocks may cap sharp upside. Good monsoon progress thereby prospects of good sowing may also add to the downside pressure.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX July Futures Turmeric NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for June 14, 2013

Support 12980-13060 5330-5410 Resistance 13220-13310 5560-5626
Source: Telequote

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Friday| June 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices declined for the second session and settled 0.67% lower on account of profit taking at higher levels coupled with good monsoon in the southern and western part of the country. Prices have gained over the last ten days on the back of good demand ahead of Ramadan coupled with concerns about cane output in the coming season due to drought conditions in Maharashtra last year. The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western part of the country coupled with higher supplies have capped the upside. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 42.09 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Government notified the cabinet committee on economic affairs (CCEA) decision to remove two key controls on sugar sector in the last month.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX June '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 3088 `/qtl 473.3 $/tonne 360.89 $/tonne 0.19 -0.38 -0.23 Last 3073

as on June 13, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.19 0.24 0.46 -1.91 -1.46 MoM 0.16 1.28 -2.43 -5.86 YoY 4.86 8.96 -16.48 -18.68

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3072.85 3088 3109 3162 20-Jun-13 15.15 0 19-Jul-13 36.15 21 0 -

as on June 13, 2013 20-Aug-13 89.15 74 53 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Total Stocks as on 12th June 748 3172 1022 4942 Qty in Process 250 1100 0 1350 Stocks as on 11th June 449 3172 1022 4643

as on June 12, 2013 Qty in Process 550 0 0 550

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX July contract

Global Sugar Updates

Raw sugar on the ICE gained 0.19% on account of short coverings after touching a three year low. Prices have declined due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Brazils cane industry association, Unica, projects South-Central Brazil cane crush at 589.60 million tons for 2013/2014. Main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. However, in its latest bi monthly report, Unica reported a fall in the output in the second half of May due to late rains in Brazil and a shift towards ethanol production. The ISO has forecast sugar surplus of atleast 3.5 mn tonnes for 2013-14 season. Reports that China may curb imports as their stocks have more than doubled last season have also added to the downside.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar futures may trade on a mixed note today. Demand from stockists coupled with output concerns this season may support prices. There are expectations of imposition of import duty. However, weak international prices coupled with good rains in the cane growing regions in Southern and Western part of the country may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar July NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 14, 2013 Resistance 3120-3135

3078-3090

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton prices traded on a positive note tracking bullish international markets and settled 1.05% higher on Thursday. Prices have witnessed significant gains in the past two weeks in the domestic markets on account of thin supplies and good demand for yarn. Firm international Cotton markets along with Weak domestic currency have also supported an upside in the cotton prices in the past couple of weeks. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October th 2012 until 26 May, 2013 were down at 311.17 lakh bales, down from 320.82 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1081 19290 91.72 95.6

as on June 13, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.84 -0.64 1.05 1.96 1.84 8.07 2.69 3.13 MoM YoY 5.57 12.31 1.96 22.24 6.60 17.45 2.08 15.39
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton June Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19290 19570 19610 28-Jun-13 0

as on June 13, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 280 0 320 40 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 11.86 lakh ha as against 10.4 lakh ha during the same period last year. Higher sowing is report from Punjab and Haryana while a decline has been reported in Rajasthan. Sowing in the rain fed areas of Southern India has also commenced while in the central India it will gain pace with the progress of monsoon.

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the cotton advisory board which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 12th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on 12th June 2013

Stocks as on 11th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures gained 1.84% on Thursday and traded around the highest levels in three months as USDA on Wednesday lowered its forecast for cotton inventory in the United States for the upcoming season due to a lower-than-expected crop as drought ravages Texas. Concern that a persistent drought will reduce output in Texas, the top U.S. producer has supported prices in the past few sessions. Further, lower planting is also supporting an upside in the cotton prices. Plantings were reported at 88% v/s 95% last week, 5 year avg of 92%. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the prices.
Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX June contract

Outlook
Cotton may trade on a positive note today on reports of reduction in the US cotton inventory. Thin supplies and good demand for yarn may support an upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX June Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for June 14, 2013 Support 1068-1074 19060--19180 Resistance 1086-1091 19430-19550
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

`
Friday| June 14, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
After declining significantly in the past few sessions, guar seed prices witnessed short coverings on Thursday. Prices had declined on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets and comparatively thin demand. Guar seed futures on the NCDEX platform settled 4% higher while Guar gum settled with marginal losses after remaining firm throughout the session. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing. Also, Stockiest who were holding stocks in anticipation of better prices have started liquidating stocks in the physical markets which added to the supply pressure.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX June 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX June 13 Fut `/qtl 6740 `/qtl 19478 `/qtl 19580 `/qtl -0.71 0.76 4.01 Last Prev day 6700 0.14

as on June 13, 2013 % change WoW -12.99 -10.25 -13.22 -13.44 MoM -29.18 -28.75 -30.81 -30.44 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 6700 6740 6400 5820 20-Jun-13 40 0 19-Jul-13 -300 -340 0 -

as on June 13, 2013 20-Aug-13 -880 -920 -580 0 as on June 13, 2013 19-Jul-13 192 90 0 20-Aug-13 -1148 -1250 -1340 0 as on June 12, 2013 Stocks as on 11th June 30 Qty in Process 30

Monsoon and Sowing

Southwest monsoon advanced in Central India 3 days before the normal schedule on July 12. A smooth progress of monsoon so far has raised expectations that monsoon will reach Rajasthan before its normal time. Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon in remaining parts of north Arabian Sea, Gujarat state, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim; some more parts of MP and some more parts of Bihar, UP and south eastern Rajasthan during next 2-3 days. The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

NCDEX Guargum Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 19478 19580 19670 18330 20-Jun-13 102 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Stocks as on 12th June 30 Qty in Process 30

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX July contract

Outlook
Prices might witness short coverings technically, however, overall trend remain bearish in Guar complex as conditions so far are favorable for smooth advancement of monsoon in the major guar growing belts. Further, supply side fundamentals remain strong to cater the domestic and overseas demand.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed July (NCDEX) Guar Seed July (MCX) Guar Gum July (NCDEX) Guar Gum July(MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 14, 2013 Support 6160-6270 6150-6260 19100-19400 19250-19600 Resistance 6540-6650 6520-6630 20000-20350 20200-20500
Source: Telequote

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