QUARTERBACK SEASON PROFILES

Player Profiles are based on season outlooks and re-ranked as events warrant during training camp. = Rising = Falling

1. AARON RODGERS, PACKERS

Rodgers was beyond brilliant in 2011, completing 68.3 percent of his passes while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt, resulting in 4,643 yards in just 15 games. Whats even more impressive is that he threw 45 touchdowns on just 502 passes. His top pass catchers from a year ago are all back, with wideouts Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson headlining the list after combining for 24 TD in 2011.

tion ratio. The injuries, though, were the primary disruption, and likely crippling to most fantasy teams who started him 10 times or more in 2011. That said, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are back, the Eagles are still one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league, and Vick still owns the skills he displayed in 2010.

7. ELI MANNING, GIANTS

Manning has been an above average starting quarterback since at least 2009, but it apparently was not until 2011 his eighth year in the NFL that he had actually arrived. His 4,933 yards were more than 900 more than his previous career high of 4,021, his YPA of 8.4 was half of a yard more than his previous career high of 7.9 and his 30 total touchdowns (one rushing) were the second-highest total of his career. History says Manning is unlikely to attempt 589 passes again in 2012 as the Giants regular-season defense and running game will almost certainty be better and reduced volume would cost him some yardage at the very least.

2. DREW BREES, SAINTS

Brees set the NFLs single-season passing record with an absurd 5,476 yards, but the team around him is set to decline in a bad way this year. New Orleans lost its best offensive lineman, guard Carl Nicks, as a free agent to the in-division Buccaneers, and wide receiver Robert Meachem left for San Diego in free agency. The biggest news, though, is that head coach and play-caller Sean Payton was suspended for the entirety of the 2012 season due to New Orleans alleged bounty scheme. In an apparently bad mood and without his play-caller and two of his best teammates, its easy to see Brees slipping in 2012.

8. TONY ROMO, COWBOYS

In a year with three 5,000-yard passers and stunning showings by Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers, its understandable that most football fans didnt notice how good Romo was in 2011. He completed 66.3 percent of his passes, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt as he totaled 4,184 yards and 31 touchdowns in the air despite missing essentially the entirety of his Week 16 game against Philadelphia. Its reasonable to expect a regression from Romo in 2012, though. First, theres no reason to expect Romo to stay healthy for 16 games. Second, the Cowboys lost wide receiver Laurent Robinson, who finished with 858 yards and 11 touchdowns in just 14 games, via free agency to the Jaguars.

3. TOM BRADY, PATRIOTS

Brady didnt throw 50 touchdown passes in 2011, but his year was arguably just as good as his historic 2007 season. Heading into 2012, there isnt any reason to expect Brady to slow. The entirely unstoppable tight-end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez returns and wideout Wes Welker is back after catching 122 passes and posting career highs in yardage (1,569) and touchdowns (nine.)

4. CAM NEWTON, PANTHERS

After he completed just 42.1 percent of his passes and averaged just 5.3 yards per attempt in the preseason, Newtons total of 854 yards and three touchdowns passing and 71 yards and two touchdowns rushing in Weeks 1 and 2 couldnt have been much more shocking. If there were something more shocking, it was that he hardly slowed down. By seasons end he threw for 4,051 yards (7.8 YPA), 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, while running for 706 yards (5.6 YPC) and 14 touchdowns. It wouldnt surprise us if Newton were to regress slightly as a fantasy option, particularly due to a drop in rushing scores, but its also reasonable to expect some improvement as a passer in Year 2.

9. PHILIP RIVERS, CHARGERS

Rivers finished with 4,624 yards and 27 touchdowns, yet the 2011 season was the worst of his six-year reign as San Diegos starting quarterback. Thats because he also threw 20 interceptions, after throwing just 22 in 2009 and 2010 combined. His value took another hit as his top receiver, Vincent Jackson, left San Diego for Tampa Bay in free agency this offseason. In any case, last years blemish aside, Rivers is an elite quarterback, and elite quarterbacks make their receivers, not the other way around.

10. PEYTON MANNING, BRONCOS

A minimally invasive neck surgery on May 23, 2011, seemed harmless enough at the time, but Manning never recovered. On Sept. 8 Manning underwent another surgery a cervical fusion surgery that ultimately knocked him out for the whole year. While theres no way to tell from the outside whether hes fully recovered yet, the Broncos were willing to gamble $18 million in guaranteed money on that proposition. A healthy Mannings skills speak for themselves, and Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are a promising wideout duo but the enduring and severe nature of Mannings ailment makes him a major risk.

5. MATT STAFFORD, LIONS

Stafford might have the lowest floor of the QBs in this range due to durability concerns. Even if hes a relative risk, his upside is too high for him to be listed any lower. Stafford is a good bet to lead the league in passing attempts, while playing in an offense that might have the NFLs best receiver, as well as four or five other productive targets. As long as he (and Calvin Johnson) stay healthy, Stafford is a virtual lock to put up big numbers.

6. MICHAEL VICK, EAGLES

There wasnt a fantasy quarterback more disappointing than Vick in 2011. Although injuries were the primary reason, Vick scored just one rushing touchdown in 13 games after scoring nine in 12 games in 2011, and he threw nearly as many interceptions (14) as touchdowns (18) after finishing 2010 with a 21:6 touchdown-to-intercep-

11. JAY CUTLER, BEARS

If the Bears werent a team that just allowed their quarterback to get sacked 105 times the last two years, Cutler would probably be ranked a bit higher. The biggest addition is fellow former Bronco Brandon Marshall, who caught 206 passes for 2,590 yards and 13

QUARTERBACK QUARTERBACK SEASON PROFILES (cont...)

touchdowns in Cutlers final two seasons in Denver. Cutler gets another significant wideout upgrade with the addition of secondround pick Alshon Jeffery, who at 6-3, 216, is a powerful receiver with big hands and an explosive ability to highpoint the ball in traffic. Expect noticeable improvement in Cutlers passing efficiency after he produced at a per-game rate the last three years that projects to 3,613 yards and 25 touchdowns over 16 games.

over as the starter. The arrival of coach Dennis Allen means a new offensive scheme for Palmer, but with his pass catchers back and an actual offseason and training camp to acclimate to the offense, he should lead another high-flying passing attack in 2012.

17. JOSH FREEMAN, BUCCANEERS

While Michael Vick was the biggest disappointment among fantasy quarterbacks, Freeman was probably the most disappointing quarterback in actual football terms, as his 25-TD, six-INT season from 2010 gave way to a 16-TD, 22-INT performance. The touchdown decrease is particularly concerning, because he threw 77 more passes than he did in 2010. Still, Freemans regression was probably just the result of overexposure. The arrival of throwback head coach Greg Schiano will ensure a shift back to the run-heavy approach in which Freeman flourished in 2010. Freemans aggregate production could suffer due to this shift in offensive philosophy, but his efficiency as a passer should improve dramatically this season in Tampa Bay.

12. ROBERT GRIFFIN, REDSKINS

Even if Griffin struggles in real football terms as a rookie, his likely high pass attempt volume in Washington should result in big aggregate numbers. Given the teams additions of free-agent wide receivers Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan and the late-season 2011 emergence of running backs Roy Helu and Evan Royster, Griffin will also have better weapons with which to work. With a deep ball that should be among the leagues best from Day One and 4.41 speed, Griffin should make good use of those weapons, especially down field.

13. BEN ROETHLISBERGER, STEELERS

Roethlisberger has played all 16 regular season games just once in his eight-year career, which is primarily the result of a remarkably strong commitment by the Pittsburgh front office to under-invest in its offensive line. To that end, the Steelers drafted guard David DeCastro and tackle Mike Adams with their first two picks, respectively, at last giving the team a talented offensive line nucleus alongside tackle Marcus Gilbert and center Maurkice Pouncey. Moreover, new offensive coordinator Todd Haley calls a pass-heavy game when he trusts his quarterback, and targets like Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Heath Miller, Emmanuel Sanders and Chris Rainey should be sufficient for Roethlisberger to pull off a strong year.

18. ANDY DALTON, BENGALS

Dalton was everything the Bengals hoped he would be, finishing his rookie year with 3,398 yards (6.6 YPA), 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions passing while running for 152 yards and a touchdown. Wideout A.J. Green is the sort of talent who could become the best in the league, and hes backed up by the promising trio of Jordan Shipley and rookies Mohamed Sanu (third round) and Marvin Jones (fifth round), while the tight-end tandem of Jermaine Gresham and fourth-round pick Orson Charles is highly skilled.

19. ANDREW LUCK, COLTS

Luck has too much talent (particularly as a runner) not to emerge as a spot-start candidate at the very least in most formats. The TEheavy play calling with which he thrived at Stanford will be simulated in Indianapolis, as evidenced by the second- and third-round selections of tight ends Coby Fleener (Lucks favorite target at Stanford) and Dwayne Allen, respectively. Lucks value is in any case greatly aided by his well above average running skills. Fast, quick and strong for a quarterback, Luck should be at least as good a runner as Aaron Rodgers, who averaged 284 yards and four touchdowns on the ground the last four years.

14. MATT RYAN, FALCONS

Ryan finished with career highs of 4,177 yards and 29 touchdowns through the air last year while raising his passing average to 7.4 yards per attempt after consecutive years at 6.5. Even so, Ryans week-to-week value is still very matchup-sensitive as he has yet to show the ability to produce against good defenses or in challenging environments. Ryan threw for 20 touchdowns and three interceptions in nine games against New Orleans (twice), Tampa Bay (twice), Carolina (twice), Indianapolis, Minnesota and Jacksonville, but threw just four touchdowns and seven interceptions in six games against Chicago, Seattle, Green Bay, Detroit, Houston and the Giants.

20. JOE FLACCO, RAVENS

Although Flacco claims to believe hes the best quarterback in the NFL, he more likely has maxed out as an average starter for the Ravens. His 20 passing touchdowns were his lowest total since he threw 14 in his 2008 rookie year, and his quarterback rating (80.9) was barely better than the career-low 80.3 he posted in 2008. Its true that Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith are an average duo at receiver, but an above average quarterback would find a way to make it work. Considering he was significantly better the two years prior to 2011, in any case, Flacco should improve in 2012.

15. MATT SCHAUB, TEXANS

The emergence of Arian Foster and Ben Tate at running back as well as a vastly improved defense has led the Texans to run the ball as often as possible, and as a result Schaub attempted just 277 passes in the nine full games he played in 2011, which projects to just 492 over a full season. Then you have to consider his durability. Schaub played all 32 games from 2009 to 2010, but he missed five games in each of the two years prior to that. On an efficiency basis, though, Schaub was better than ever in 2011, averaging a careerhigh 8.5 yards per pass while posting a career-high touchdown rate.

21. JAKE LOCKER, TITANS

Locker is expected to open the season as Matt Hasselbecks backup, so its hard to project him for a full season of games. But barring a reversion to his Pro Bowl form of more than a half decade ago, Hasselbeck is unlikely to last more than six weeks as a starter. Locker has the upside to push for top-10 fantasy quarterback status once he becomes starter. A strong-armed, smart quarterback with running ability second only to Cam Newton, the 2011 eighth overall pick outperformed Hasselbeck whenever he saw the field last year.
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16. CARSON PALMER, RAIDERS

Palmer is an injury worry and was reckless in his first year with the Raiders, but the big-play potential he possesses in an offense loaded with speedy playmakers gives him a fair amount of upside. Last years result was 2,637 passing yards in just nine starts for an offense in which he had just two weeks of practice before taking

QUARTERBACK QUARTERBACK SEASON PROFILES (cont...)

22. RYAN FITZPATRICK, BILLS

Fitzpatricks talent level is merely average, but the Bills are committed to him, and he plays in an offense that does a good job of playing to his strengths. He throws way too many interceptions (38 in his last 29 games), but he also posted 6,832 yards over that span, which averages out to roughly 3,769 yards over 16 games. With solid numbers in the passing touchdown (47) and rushing yardage (484) categories as well in the last two years, Fitzpatrick is a useful depth choice and match-up starter.

However, the Seahawks are high on him, and it won't take much to push out the lackluster Jackson. Expect him to at least be the backup.

28. CHRISTIAN PONDER, VIKINGS

The 2011 12th overall pick threw for 1,853 yards (6.4 YPA) and 13 each of touchdowns and interceptions last year figures that are generally promising when you take into account how weak his offensive line and receivers were. He also proved to be a skilled runner, averaging 7.8 yards per rush as he took off for 219 yards. That said, due to the potential absence and limited effectiveness of Adrian Peterson (ACL, MCL) and Ponders own durability concerns, a step forward in Year 2 is far from guaranteed.

23. MARK SANCHEZ, JETS

The dubious addition of Tim Tebow to the Jets roster means even more scrutiny whenever Sanchez makes a mistake, but hes still a likely 16-game starter for the Jets especially after they signed him to an extension with $20.5 million guaranteed. Although he needs to cut his turnovers after committing 26 in 2011 (18 interceptions), Sanchez deserves credit for making more plays last year, throwing for 26 touchdowns and running for six more. That last years offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who seemed to hamstring Sanchez with overly conservative play calling has been replaced by Tony Sparano can only help, too.

29. BRANDON WEEDEN, BROWNS

Weedens rookie year figures to be ugly. The 22nd overall pick will be throwing to the leagues worst receivers in the leagues toughest defensive division, and hell get four games against the NFC East, too, which might be the second-toughest defensive division. There might be some hope for Weeden to obtain relevance, if Cleveland maintains its high pass attempt volume (570 attempts) from last year, but even that prospect seems unlikely as the team drafted running back Trent Richardson with the third overall pick.

24. SAM BRADFORD, RAMS

For Bradford, 2012 needs to be the year he breaks out. Secondround pick Brian Quick is a big (6-3, 220) target with a huge wingspan, and fourth-round pick Chris Givens is a field stretcher who should at least have the effect of a poor mans Torrey Smith. In addition, second-round running back Isaiah Pead will give Bradford a dangerous home-run threat in the backfield thats bound to make some plays on screen passes. Bradford could make an Alex Smithlike jump in 2012 after averaging just six yards per pass and throwing 24 touchdowns and 21 interceptions in his first 26 NFL games.

30. RYAN TANNEHILL, DOLPHINS

Although Miami drafted him eighth overall, Tannehill is unrefined and was dealing with consistency issues even as he played against weak college defenses during his senior season at Texas A&M. Its therefore difficult to see him beating out Matt Moore (or David Garrard) for the Week 1 starting role in Miami. But with Miami highly unlikely to compete on any notable level this year, the team will presumably turn to Tannehill once it has nothing to lose. If it does, Tannehills rare athleticism (he was A&Ms best wide receiver before taking over as quarterback) makes him a potential spot-start candidate against weak defenses.

25. MATT CASSEL, CHIEFS

With an average of just 6.4 yards per pass attempt in his three-year career with the Chiefs, Cassel has demonstrated that hes no more than a game manager in the best-case scenario. The Chiefs, however, have done a good job of providing him with that scenario. Jamaal Charles pairs with Peyton Hillis to give Kansas City what might be the best running back duo in the league. With relatively little pressure on him, Cassel could do a decent re-enactment of his 2010 season this year, a season in which he threw 27 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions (though just 3,116 yards).

31. JOHN SKELTON, CARDINALS

Skelton threw for 1,913 yards, 11 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 54.9 completion percentage in eight games last season. Despite his unimpressive stats, Skelton led the Cards to a surprising 6-2 record when he was behind center, keeping the team in playoff contention until the final weeks of the season. In any case Skelton's performance was enough to set up a preseason battle between him and Kevin Kolb for the team's 2012 starting assignment. If Skelton can claim the job, he'll still have superb wideout Larry Fitzgerald to throw to and the Cards used a first-round pick in promising wideout Michael Floyd, as well.

26. ALEX SMITH, 49ERS

There might not be a starting quarterback in the league with a lower ceiling than Smith, as his career year in 2011 consisted of throwing for just 3,144 yards (7.1 YPA) and 17 touchdowns. The lack of turnovers (five interceptions, two lost fumbles) and solid rushing numbers (179 yards and two touchdowns) helped out, but it seems safe to say that Smith is no more than a game manager. Hell have some more help in 2012, too, as the 49ers added three speedy upgrades at receiver in the form of first-round pick A.J. Jenkins and free-agents Mario Manningham and Randy Moss.

32. TIM TEBOW, JETS

Mark Sanchez might not be a good starting quarterback in the NFL, but at least he can stand in the pocket and occasionally deliver an accurate and well-timed ball. Tebow is more of a gimmick player, able to run and create on broken plays, but is unlikely ever to be a reliable every-down player. Although credit is due for his ability to post 18 touchdowns (six rushing) versus 12 turnovers (six each of interceptions and fumbles), a quarterback cannot survive on a 46.5 completion percentage. Tebow should see some work in a variety of roles, though, including wildcat quarterback, running back and tight end. That should be enough to make him worth owning in twoquarterback leagues or ones where he gains eligibility at another position.

27. RUSSELL WILSON, SEAHAWKS

Wilson is in a three-way battle with Matt Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson for the starting quarterback job. Flynn signed for a bunch of money and Jackson is the incumbent, so Wilson has his work cut out for him. At 5-10, Wilson is undersized for a traditional quarterback.

QUARTERBACK QUARTERBACK SEASON PROFILES (cont...)

34. MATT HASSELBECK, TITANS

Tennessee beat writers expressed confidence at press time that Hasselbeck would open the season as the starting quarterback for the Titans. He isnt good enough at this point, though, to hold off Jake Locker for the entire season, or even a third of it, to be more specific. Hasselbeck will turn 37 on Sept. 25, and he was a major liability down the stretch last year, throwing nine touchdowns against 10 interceptions after Tennessees Week 6 bye.

desperation. The problem then, of course, is that Henne himself is an ineffective passer with a career 75.7 QB rating. The addition of rookie Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinsion should help whoever takes over the job, but Henne had Brandon Marshall at his last stop, and it wasnt enough to make him useful.

35. MATT MOORE, DOLPHINS

Moores days as a starter could be numbered. The team took Ryan Tannehill with the eighth overall pick, and he will eventually either earn the starting role or have it handed to him at Moores expense. Tannehill is generally quite raw, though, so a solid veteran like Moore should be able to win the Week 1 starting spot and hold on to it for roughly half of the year, at least. Moore is worth drafting in two-quarterback leagues and could warrant spot start consideration in one-quarterback leagues with the right matchup. Thats assuming David Garrard doesnt take the job.

34. CHAD HENNE, JAGUARS

Unless Blaine Gabbert makes huge improvements heading into his second year, Henne would probably win a fair competition against him. Unfortunately for Henne, the job is not up for grabs Gabbert will likely start even if Henne looks better in training camp. That doesn't make it guaranteed that the Jaguars will be able to endure 16 games of painfully bad play, though, before turning to Henne in