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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| June 17, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report


Monday| June 17, 2013

Highlights
RBI Monetary Policy Review at 11.00 am today. Indias WPI inflation declined to 4.7 percent in the last month. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment declined to 82.7-mark in June. European CPI remained unchanged at 1.4 percent in May. Asian markets are trading higher today, ahead of major monetary policy decisions of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), that is scheduled for today. The Federal Reserves two-day meeting will begin tomorrow and the worlds largest central bank would announce its decision on Wednesday. Both these decisions are important from the Indian market point of view, as the RBIs meeting would set a tone from the domestic perspective, while the Feds decision or statement will help the Indian markets take further course accordingly. US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.5 percent in May as against a decline of 0.7 percent in April. Consumer Sentiment declined by 1.8 points to 82.7-mark in June when compared to rise of 84.5-level in May. Indias Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation declined to 4.7 percent in May as against a rise of 4.89 percent in April. WPI fuel index dropped to 7.32 percent in May from previous rise of 8.8 percent a month ago. WPI food inflation rose to 8.25 percent in last month as compared to 6.1 percent in April.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (July13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5808.4 19177.9 15070.18 1626.7 16152.9 1959.2 58497.8 12686.5 97.85 1387.30 21.95 7091.00 102.09 0.0 Prev. day 1.9 1.9 -0.7 -0.6 0.2 -1.5 0.2 1.9 1.2 0.7 1.7 0.4

as on June 14, 2013 WoW -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -3.2 1.8 13.3 -0.1 1.9 0.1 1.0 -2.0 2.7 MoM -5.5 -5.1 -1.9 -1.4 -7.3 -1.4 5.0 -12.4 1.9 0.2 -1.7 -9.6 -2.3 YoY 14.9 4.9 19.1 22.4 20.6 2.0 4.3 48.0 16.6 -14.3 -22.7 -6.2 -1.1

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 1.2 percent in the last week on the back of better than forecast retail sales and jobless claims data from US. Further, expectations of Fed keeping interest rates lower and uncertainty over the Fed regarding reducing its bond buying program exerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched a weekly low of 80.51 and closed at 80.65 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 80.65 57.49 57.64 57.64 Prev. day -0.1 0.9 -0.79 -0.81 WoW -1.2 -0.8 0.69 0.63

as on June 14, 2013 MoM -4.4 -4.9 4.86 4.87 YoY 1.5 -3.7 3.22 3.20

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated 0.8 percent on account of cut in the growth outlook of the economy to 5.7 percent by World Bank. Further, weak global and domestic markets coupled with unfavorable industrial production and manufacturing output data from the country added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the Rupee was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX along with favorable inflation data from the economy. The currency touched a low of 58.98 in the last week and closed at 57.49 against dollar on Friday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.1,457.70 crores th ($244.39 million) as on 14 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.81,747.40 crores ($15,108.60 million) till 14th June 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, Rupee is expected to trade on a mixed note ahead of RBIs monetary policy decision. Further trend in the Rupee will be dependent on announcement and statement by the Fed in a meeting which will begin tomorrow.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for June 17, 2013 Support 57.50/57.30 Resistance 57.80/58.0

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Currencies Daily Report


Monday| June 17, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, favorable industrial production data from the region supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.339 and closed at 1.3346 against the dollar on Friday. However, sharp upside in Euro was capped on account of weak global markets coupled with cut in the economic outlook by the World Bank for the Euro Zone. European Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 1.4 percent in the month of May. Core CPI rose to 1.2 percent in May from earlier rise of 1 percent a month ago. Employment Change fell by 0.5 percent in Q1 of 2013 with respect to earlier fall of 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to strength on the back of Italys announcement of 3 billion Euros investment in infrastructure projects. The jobs markets and infrastructure sector will get a boost and will support an upside in the currency.

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3346 76.64 76.8 Prev. day -0.2 0.8 -0.80

as on June 14, 2013 WoW 0.9 -1.4 1.16 MoM 3.6 -8.7 7.90 YoY 5.6 -11.7 9.46

76.8

-0.80

1.13

7.89

9.44

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for June 17, 2013 Support 76.50/76.20 Resistance 77.0/77.30 $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

GBP (% change)
Last 1.5703 90.287 90.11 Prev. day -0.10 -0.89 -0.92

as on June 14, 2013

WoW 0.9 1.68 1.13

MoM 3.1 8.20 7.31

YoY -0.1 4.03 3.95

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Sterling Pound appreciated 0.9 percent on the back of weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable economic data from the country acted as a positive factor for the currency. The Sterling Pound touched a high of 1.5734 and closed at 1.5703 against dollar on Friday. However, weak global markets prevented sharp gains in the currency. UKs Conference Board (CB) Leading Index decline to 0.2 percent in April as against a rise of 0.4 percent in earlier month. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will support an upside in the prices. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for June 17, 2013 Support 89.95/89.70 Resistance

90.11

-0.88

1.07

7.33

3.96

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

90.40/90.65

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Currencies Daily Report


Monday| June 17, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated 3.5 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, favorable economic data from the country supported an upside in the currency. The Yen touched a weekly high of 93.78 and closed at 94.07 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to depreciate, taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global markets, which will lead to fall in demand for the low-yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for June 17, 2013 Support 60.50/60.35 Resistance 60.85/61.05 Last 94.07 0.6113 60.70 60.72 Prev day -1.4 0.72 -1.62 -1.59 as on June 14, 2013 WoW -3.5 4.50 1.37 1.44 MoM -8.0 14.01 12.10 12.11 YoY 19.5 -12.98 -13.79 -13.75

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 17, 2013


Indicator Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index G8 Meetings Country Japan US All Time (IST) 5:20am 6:00pm Day 1 Actual Forecast 0.2% 0.4 Previous -1.3% -1.4 Impact Medium Medium High

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