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CHAPTER 9: PROBABILITY 1.1 Introduction

What is probability? Probability is a general concept to explain how certain event has a chance to occur. It is a basic of inferential statistics. fraction, percentage or decimal value If probability = 1: therefore the event is certain to occur If probability = 0: therefore the event is cannot possibly occur Definition: The probability is a numerical value that represent fraction, percentage or decimal value that represent the number of times the event is expected to occur under identical conditions when the experiments is repeated. 1.2 Important terminologies

Experiment: process by which an observation (or measurement) is obtained Example: role a dice (the outcome is not known) Sample space (S): a set of possible outcome of the experiment. Example: Experiment Roll a die Toss a coin Getting 1 child Sample space (S) S={1 2 3 4 5 6} S={ } S={ }

Event: a set of outcomes of probability experiment. Also known as a subset of S. It can be one or more outcome. Simple event Compound event Example: a coin is toss one time and getting a head. A={H} Probability: the measure of how likely an event is EXAMPLE Problem 1 A spinner has 4 equal selectors colored yellow, blue, red and green a. What are the chances of landing on blue after spinning the spinner? b. What are the chances of landing on red? Spinning the spinner The possible outcomes are landing on yellow, blue, green or red.

Experiment Outcome

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Event

a. Landing on blue b. Landing on red a. The chances of landing on blue are 1 in 4. Therefore the probability of landing blue is b. The chances of landing on red are 1 in 4. Therefore the probability of landing red, is

Probability /Solution

Exercise 1: A die is rolling one time. If A is an event an odd number is obtained, B is the event a number less than 4 is obtained, and C is the event a 3 is obtained. Use the above method to find the answers. 1.3 Event Relations (Venn Diagram) Definition: Given two events A and B 1. Union AB The unions of A and B, the event containing all outcomes that belong to A alone, or B alone, or to both A and B.

S 2. Intersection AB the intersection of A and B, is defined to be the event containing all outcomes belonging to both A and to B. S

3. Complement event, A A= Ac = The event A does not occur S

4. De Morgans Law provide some useful relationships among the three operations: a. (A B) = A B b. (A B) = A B

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1.4

Tree Diagram

Useful in determining the probabilities of an event in a systematic ways. Rules: Multiply probabilities along the branches Add between branches Any set of branches that met appoint, total probability must be equal to 1.

Exercise 2: Consider an experiment of throwing a fair dice. Let A is an event of getting odd number Let B is an event of getting prime number Let C is an event of getting number less than or equal to 3. a. Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the above events b. Then find i. AB ii. AC iii. BC Exercise 3: Employees in Darul Nairn Company have three choices of schemes, A, B and C. Employees can vote for any one of the scheme that they prefer. If they have no preference, they can vote for all three or any two schemes. A sample poll of 200 votes revealed the following information: 42 would vote for A only 65 would vote for B only 51 would vote for C only 15 would vote for both A and B 15 would vote for A and C, but not B 117 would vote for either A or B, or both A and B, but not C 128 would vote for either B or C, or both B and C, but not A Represent the above information on a Venn diagram. Exercise 4: The events A, B and C are such that A and B are independent and A and C are mutually exclusive. Given that P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.2, P(C) = 0.3, P(BC)=0.1. Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the situation for event A, B and C.

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1.5

Classical Definition of Probability The probability of an event occurred in the event divided by the number in the sample space. It assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur. If the possibility space S consists of a finite number of equally likely outcome, then the probability of an event E, written P(E) is defined as

The probability of any events E is =

no. of outcomes in E Total no. of outcomes in the sample space

P (E ) =
Where P = probability E = event S = sample space 1.5.1 Rules of probability: 1. 0 P(A) 1 2. P(A) = 1 1.5.2 Additional information: 1. 2. 3. 4. P(A B) = P(B A) P(A) = P(A B) + P(A B) P(A B) = P(A B) P(B) P(A B) = 1- P(A B)

n(E ) n(S )

Exercise 5: Based on Exercise 3, what is the probability that the employees would vote for: a. all three schemes? b. only one scheme? c. A irrespective of B or C? d. A and B, but not C?

Exercise 6: If a family has three children, find the probability that two of the three children are boys (Use tree digram).

1.6 The Additional Rule and Mutually Exclusive Event The addition rule is useful for determining the probability of the union of the two events. a. The probability of the UNION of event A and B is the sum of the probability of events A and B minus the probability of the intersection of events A and B: P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB)

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This is general additive rule of probabilities. Note: we must subtract one of the two probabilities of the outcomes that are common to both events because they have been counted twice. b. If an events A can occur or an event B can occur but not both A and B can occur, then the two event A and B are said to be mutually exclusive.

P( A B ) = 0
S

For exclusive event, the rule for combined events becomes P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) This is known as the addition rule for exclusive events Example: Consider a fair six-sided die, only in addition to the numbers 1 through 6 on each face, we have the property that the even-numbered faces are colored red, and the odd-numbered faces are colored green. Let: Event A be rolling a green face Event B be rolling a 6. P(A) = 1/2 P(B) = 1/6 It is obvious that events A and B cannot simultaneously occur, since rolling a 6 means the face is red, and rolling a green face means the number showing is odd. Therefore P(A and B) = 0. (Source: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/69825.html)

Exercise 7: The probability that a girl in a class 3D is in the netball team is 0.4 and the probability that she is in a chess team is 0.5. If the probability that she is in both teams is 0.2, find the probability that a girl chosen at random is netball or the chess team. 1.7 1.7.1 Conditional Probability and Dependent Events Dependent Events

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When the occurrence of the 1st event changes the probability of the occurrences of the 2nd events and changes the probability of occurrences. Usually involve the step of not replaced

Example of dependent events: Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then draw a second card Having a high grade and getting a scholarship Parking in no-parking zone and getting a parking ticket. 1.7.2 Conditional Probability The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A).

P(B A) =

P( A B) P( A)

if P(A) > 0

The conditional probability of event A, given that event B has occurred is

P(A B ) =

P( A B ) P (B )

if P(B) > 0

Sometimes it is written as P( A B ) = P ( A) P B A Note: If given P(BA), therefore;

( )
P(B A') P( A') P ( B ) P ( B A) = 1 P ( A)

P(B A') =

Example: A box contains a black chips and white chips. A person selects two chips without replacement. If the probability of selecting a black chip and a white chip is

15 , and the probability 56

of selecting a black chip on the 1st draw is , find the probability of selecting the white chip on the 2nd draw given that the 1st chip selected was a black chip. Solution: Let B = selecting a black chip W = selecting a white chip

3 8

3 P (B ) = 8

P(W B ) =

P(W B ) =

P(W B ) P (B ) 15 56 = 38 5 = 7

15 56

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Exercise 8: Exercise 9: If P A B = a. P B A b. P( A B )

( )

( )

1 1 2 , P (B ) = , P( A) = , find 4 3 5

1.8

Multiplicative Rule

Are deals with two or more events. However the events occur as a result of more than one task (rolling one die then another, drawing two cards, spinning a spinner twice, pulling two marbles out of a bag, etc).The probability of event A and B happening is given as: P(A B) = P(A) P(B|A) or P(A B) = P(B) P(A|B) 1.8.1 Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent when the outcome of the A does not affect the probability outcome of B occurring or vice versa. It is assumed that probability of either A or B remains the same when the experiment is repeated. Events A and B are independent if that condition holds

P ( A B ) = P ( A)
Vice versa:

P(B A) = P(B )

when event A and B are independent

Now Therefore

P(A B) = P(AB) P(B) P(A B) = P(A) P(B)

This is known as the multiplication law for independent events

CHECKING FOR THE INDEPENDENCE Two events A and B are said to be independent if either P( A B ) = P( A) P(B ) ------------------ (1) Or P B A = P (B ) ------------------ (2)

( )

Otherwise, the events are said to be dependent. Exercise 9: The data below shows the type of blood for a sample of men and women living in a particular city. Blood O A B Men 113 101 28 Women 111 105 22 Total 224 206 50

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AB TOTAL

9 251

11 249

20 500

Let O is defined as the event that the person has O blood type, M is the event that a person is a man and W be the event that a person is a women. If a person is selected at random, find: i. P(O) ii. P(MO) iii. P(WO) iv. P(MO) v. Determine whether event O and M are independent. Exercise 10: The events X and Y are such that P(X)= denotes X does not occur. a. Find i. ii. iii. iv.

3 1 2 , P(Y/X)= , P(XY)= where X 4 3 3

P(X) P(XY) P(Y) P(X/Y) where Y denotes Y does not occur

b. Determine whether X and Y are independent.

Exercise 11: Let A and B are the events from an experiment with P(B)=3/5, P(B|A)=2/3 and P(AB)=7/25. Calculate P(A), P(A|B), P(A|B). Further determine whether A and B are i. ii. Independent events Mutually exclusive events

Exercise 12: An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls and 5 white balls. A ball is selected and its color noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability of each of these a. Selecting 2 blue balls b. Selecting a blue ball and then a white ball c. Selecting a red ball and then a blue ball Exercise 13 (Apr 2000): A box in an office of a chemical plant contains 9 especially colour-coded caution signs; 3 reds, 4 yellows and 2 whites. A red colour sign indicates extremely dangerous, a yellow colour sign indicates moderately dangerous and white colour sign indicates slightly dangerous. A new employee, who has not yet been briefed on the colour-code, was dispatched to take two of the caution signs from the box. Assuming that he took the two caution signs simultaneously, find the probability that he selects; a. Exactly 2 yellow colour signs b. One yellow and one white colour signs c. Either exactly one extremely dangerous or exactly one slightly dangerous caution signs Exercise 12 (Apr 2006): If P(A)= 0.35 and P(B)= 0.66 and P(AB)= 0.231. Verify whether; a. Events A and B are mutually exclusive b. Events A and B are independent

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Whats the difference between mutually exclusive and independent events? 1. When two events are mutually exclusive (disjoint), they cannot both happen when the experiment is performed. 2. When two events are independent, the events can happen simultaneously or can be seen to happen one after another. 1.9 Bayes Theorem Shows the relation between one conditional probability and its inverse. Use the tree diagram

For two events A and B, where event B follows event A, event A can occur in A1, A2,,An mutually exclusive ways, and event B can occur in B1, B2,,Bm mutually exclusive ways;

P( A1 / B1 ) = =

P( A1 ) P(B1 / A1 ) [P( A1 ) P(B1 / A1 ) + P( A2 ) P(B1 / A2 ) + .... + P( An ) P(B1 / An )]

P( A1 B1 ) P(B1 )

The numerator is the product of the probabilities on the branch of the tree that consists of outcomes A1 and B1. The denominator is the sum of the probabilities of the branches containing B1 and A1, B1 and A2 . B1 and An

Example: Three girls, Alice, Barbara and Cindy pack biscuits in a factory. From the batch allotted to them Alice packs 55%, Barbara 30% and Cindy 15%. The probability that Alice breaks some biscuit in a packet is 0.7, and the respective probabilities for Barbara and Cindy are 0.2 and 0.1. What is the probability that a packet with broken biscuits found by the checker was packed by Alice? Solution:

P( A B ) = =

P (B A ) P ( A) P(B A) P( A) + P(B B ) P(B ) + P(B C ) P(C ) (0.55)(0.7 ) = (0.55)(0.7 ) + (0.5)(0.1) + (0.3)(0.2) = 0.837

P( A B ) P (B )

Exercise 13 (March 2004): The following data represented in the tables is extracted from a study entitled application of Internet Facilities. Table A shows the percentage of student surfing the internet at 3 locations: Venue Percentage of student Home 37% Cyber cafe 39% Library 24%

Table B shows the percentage of time surfing the internet for non-academic purpose at each location:

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Venue Percentage of time used for nonacademic

Home 25%

Cyber cafe 20%

Library 23%

Suppose a student is selected at random and found to be using internet for non-academic purpose, what is the probability that he used in the library

Exercise 14: The method A and B are available for teaching a certain skill. The failure rate is 20% for A and 10% for B. However B is more expensive and hence it used only 30% of the time. A worker was taught the skill by one of the methods but failed to learn it correctly, what is the probability that she was taught by method A. 1.10 Counting Rules

1.10.1 Permutation is an ordered Combination; arrangement of things 2 types Repetition is allowed No repetition The product principle: (a method to solve permutation) If there are m ways of performing an operation and for each of these there are n ways of performing another, then they are m n ways of performing the two operations in succession. Theorem 1: Arrangement The number of ways of arranging n unlike objects in a line n!= n Pn Permutation with repetition Theorem 2: Arrangement The number of ways of arranging on n unlike objects taken r at a time
n

Pr =

n! (n r )!

Permutations without Repetition : reduce the number of available choices each time

Example: The no. of different arrangements or permutation consisting of 2 letters each can be formed from 3 letters A, B and C is
3

P2 =

3! = 6 ways (3 - 2)!

Theorem 3: Arrangement / Permutation With some objects indistinguishable/ alike, then the total no, of permutation is

n! n1!n2 !...nr !
Where n1, n2,..,nr has the same characteristics Example: In how many ways MISSISSIPPI can be formed?

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Exercise 15: Answer the following questions. a. 3 science, 4 mathematics and 5 history books are arranged on a shelf. How many arrangements are possible if the books from each subject are to be together. b. Find the possible number if the letter of the word ORANGE i. Are arranged in a line ii. If the vowel are together iii. If the letter A is at the beginning of the arrangement c. If the words Place in given, find; i. The number of ways of arranging all the alphabets in the given word ii. The number of ways of arranging four of the alphabets in the given word so that last alphabet is S. iii. The number of ways arranging all the alphabets in the given word so that the first alphabet is a vowel. iv. Find the number of these arrangements in which the letters E and A are side by side. 1.10.2 Combination order does not matter; selection of things 2 types Repetition is allowed No repetition Choosing r objects without repetition from n different objects such that order does not matter is called a combination and the number of such combinations is denoted by n C r . Example: ABC and BCA are the same combinations

Exercise 16: Answer the following question. a. A non-profit organization offers six scholarships to eligible students. This year, 5 female and 7 male students who are equally qualified apply for the scholarship. If the scholarships are to be awarded to 2 female and 4 male students, determined; i. In how many ways can the scholarship be given? ii. The probability that the group of students in (a) will received the scholarships. b. A badminton team consists of 7 students. The team will be chosen from a group of 8 boys and 5 girls. Find the number of team that can be formed such that each team consist of i. 4 boys ii. Not more than 2 girls. c. The letters of word ADIDAS are each written on a card and the cards are then shuffled and placed in a line; i. In how many ways can the cards be arranged? ii. Three letters are chosen at random. Find the probability that at most two letters chosen are consonants.

END OF CHAPTER 9

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