Thomas H.

Kean May 3, 2004

CHAIR

Lee H. Hamilton
VICE CHAIR
The Honorable Henry A. Waxman
Richard Ben-Veniste U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515
Fred F. Fielding

Jamie S. Gorelick Dear Representative Waxman:

Slade Gorton Thank you for your letter to the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon
Bob Kerrey
the United States forwarding the "war against terrorism" statistics compiled by
the Congressional Research Service. We greatly appreciate your interest and
John F. Lehman willingness to provide information to the Commission which we will forward to
the proper investigative teams.
Timothy J. Roemer

James R. Thompson This information will be helpful in pursing the Commission's goal to provide
guidance and recommendations that will improve the country's fight against
terrorism and make America safer and more secure. Please do not hesitate to
Philip D. Zelikow
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR contact us on these and all matters of National interest.

With best regards,

Thomas H. Kean Lee H. Hamilton

Chair Vice Chair

301 7th Street SW, Room 5125 26 Federal Plaza

Washington, DC 20407 Suite 13400
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' TOM DAVIS, VIRGINIA, L>C- I ~ '
*
THEN^Y A. WAXMAN, CALIFORNIA,
CHAIRMAN RANKING MINORITY MEMBER
DAN BURTON, INDIANA •> ONE HUNDRED EIGHTH CONGRESS TOM LANTOS, CALIFORNIA
CHRISTOPHER SHfCS, CONNECTICUT MAJOR H. OWENS, NEW YORK
ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN, FLORIDA EDOLPHUS TOWNS, NEW YORK
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STEVENC LATOURETTE, OHIO

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PATRICK J.TIBERI. OHIO M^OHITY ^
KATHERIN6 HARRIS, FLORIDA TTY (202) 225-6852 BERNARD SANDERS, VERMONT,
www.house.gov/reform INDEPENDENT

April 6, 2004

The Honorable Thomas H. Kean, Chair

The Honorable Lee H. Hamilton, Vice Chair
National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States
Room 5 125
301 7th Street, SW
Washington, DC 20407

Dear Governor Kean and Mr. Hamilton:

President Bush declared "war against terrorism" after the September 1 1 attacks.1 Thirty
months later, one of the major questions confronting the September 1 1 Commission, members of
Congress, and the public is whether the United States is winning this war.

There is no simple answer to this question and no single way to assess our progress in the
war on terror. The President frequently claims that the United States is winning the war on
terrorism based on the number of senior al Qaeda leaders captured or killed.2 While there has
been progress on this front, Richard Clarke and other experts say that the war in Iraq may
actually be increasing the number of al Qaeda recruits.3 Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has
also raised concern about increasing the number of al Qaeda operatives.4

Clearly, one important measure of whether the United States and other nations are
succeeding in the war against terrorism is whether the number of terrorist attacks launched by al

1 George W. Bush Addresses the Nation, FDCH Political Transcripts (Sept. 11, 2001).
See, e.g., President George W. Bush, State of the Union Address (Jan. 20, 2004)
2
("nearly two-thirds of their known leaders have now been captured or killed").
3 See, e.g., Meet the Press, NBC News (Mar. 28, 2004) ("The president of Egypt said, 'If
you invade Iraq, you will create a hundred bin Ladens.' . . . It's turned out to be true").
Memorandum from Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to General Richard Myers,
4
Paul Wolfowitz, General Pete Pace, and Douglas Feith (Oct. 16, 2003) (online at
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/executive/rumsfeld-merno.htm) ("Today, we lack
metrics to know if we are winning or losing the global war on terror. Are we capturing, killing
or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics
are recruiting, training and deploying against us?").
The Honorable Thomas H. Kean, Chair
The Honorable Lee H. Hamilton, Vice Chair
April 6,2004
Page 2

Qaeda is increasing or decreasing. For this reason, I asked the nonpartisan Congressional
Reseach Service to assess the number of terrorist attacks by al Qaeda before and after President
Bush declared war on terrorism on September 11. I am transmitting a copy of the CRS report
with this letter.5

In the report, CRS compares the number of al Qaeda attacks in the 30 months before the
September 11 attacks to the number of al Qaeda attacks in the 30 months since the September 11
attacks. The report finds that there was one al Qaeda attack worldwide in the 30 months before
September 11, with 17 fatalities. In comparison, the report finds that there have been at least ten
al Qaeda attacks worldwide since September 11, with approximately 510 fatalities.

30 Months Prior to September 11, 2001

30 Months Following September 11, 2001

Source: Congressional Research Service Memorandum (March 31, 2004).

The CRS report also examines the period of time between 1992, the date of the first
known al Qaeda attack, and the September 11 attacks. CRS finds that there were four al Qaeda
attacks during this nearly nine-year period, with approximately 318 fatalities.

Finally, the CRS report examines the number of "disrupted" al Qaeda attacks before and
after September 11. CRS finds that during the 30 months prior to September 11, two purported
al Qaeda attacks were disrupted. In the 30 months after September 11, one purported al Qaeda
attack was disrupted.

The CRS report includes a number of important caveats. CRS indicates that there is no
authoritative government report available that assesses terrorist attacks after 2002. In addition,
CRS notes that "the attribution of terrorist attacks can be unknown for months or years, and

Congressional Research Service, Terrorist Attacks by Al Qaeda (Mar. 31, 2004).

The Honorable Thomas H. Kean, Chair
The Honorable Lee H. Hamilton, Vice Chair
April 6,2004
Page 3

sometimes (especially with respect to Al Qaeda) it is probably never definitively known."

According to CRS, these limitations mean that the listing of attacks by Al Qaeda "may not be
entirely complete or correct."

Another significant limitation is that CRS did not include "terrorist attacks that have
occurred in Iraq, many of which are suspected to have a link to Al Qaeda (or its associated
groups)." As a result of this limitation, "a large number of attacks that could qualify for the list"
were excluded from the report.

Nonetheless, CRS concludes that its findings represent "the best judgment that we can
make on the available information."

I hope you find this CRS report helpful to your deliberations. It suggests that the nation
has a long way to go in fighting al Qaeda and that the record of success cited by President Bush
is not as clear-cut as the White House claims.

Sincerely,

Henry A. Waxman
Ranking Minority Member
 ^^Congressional
-* Research
Service

Memorandum March 31,2004

TO: House Government Reform Committee
Attention: David Rapallo

FROM: Audrey Kurth Cronin

Specialist in Terrorism
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division

SUBJECT: Terrorist Attacks by Al Qaeda

This memorandum is in response to your request for information about attacks by Al

Qaeda both before and after the September 11,2001 attack on the United States. If you have
further questions, please contact Audrey Kurth Cronin at x7-7676.

Introduction
The request asks for the number of attacks attributed to Al Qaeda in the two-and-a- half
years before September 11, 2001, and in the two and a half years afterwards, as well as the
total number of attacks by Al Qaeda before September 11, 2001. While an analysis of the
number of attacks worldwide committed by Al Qaeda might seem a simple, straightforward
exercise, it is not, for the reasons mentioned below. We have endeavored to provide an
assessment of the evidence available and will describe our findings in the body of the
memorandum.

A number of issues arise relating to the reliability of this information, which is collected
from openly available chronologies of terrorist incidents. First, the most authoritative
unclassified U.S. government document that assesses terrorist attacks, Patterns of Global
Terrorism (published by the Department of State), comes out in the Spring of the subsequent
year and thus has a lag of at least several months. There is currently no official government
information available after 2002. Second, private organizations that collect information
about terrorist attacks often define terrorism in different ways. Thus, it is often difficult to
directly compare data that are collected on the basis of different assumptions.

Third, and most important with respect to tracking Al Qaeda's attacks, the attribution
of terrorist attacks can be unknown for months or years, and sometimes (especially with
respect to Al Qaeda) it is probably never definitely known. There is information of varying
reliability in the press about apparent logistical, financial, or technical cooperation with Al
Qaeda, and/or apparent links between operatives in local groups and Al Qaeda. Sometimes
groups may claim to be associated with Al Qaeda so as to associate themselves with Al

Congressional Research Service Washington, D.C. 20540-7000

 CRS-2

Qaeda's goals or ideology, even if there is no direct physical link. At other times,
investigators think there is a link to Al Qaeda, but have no proof. We have used our best
judgment to assess the reliability of this information, but it is not possible in many cases to
be sure. Especially recently, the number of attacks definitely attributable to Al Qaeda has
evolved and changed, as forensic and intelligence evidence comes to light. Therefore,
especially for very recent attacks by Al Qaeda, the listing that we provide below may not be
entirely complete or correct.

These comments are necessary because of the complexity of data on terrorist incidents
generally, and the particular problems in tracking Al Qaeda's recently evolving pattern of
attacks. The remaining discussion should be considered with these caveats in mind.

Total Al Qaeda Attacks Prior to September 11, 2001

According to the State Department's Patterns of Global Terrorism, 2002, the following
attacks are attributed to Al Qaeda before September 11, 2001:'

December 1992: Three bombings were reportedly targeted at U.S. troops in Aden, Yemen.
There were no casualties.

1993: Al Qaeda claims to have shot down U.S. helicopters and killed U.S. servicemen in
Somalia while they were performing Operation Restore Hope. Bin Laden reportedly believes
that Al Qaeda was thus responsible for the withdrawal of the United States from Somalia.
(Note: Some experts do not include this incident as a terrorist attack, because it was directed
not against civilians but against military members in combat.)

August 1998: Al Qaeda reportedly conducted the bombings of the U.S. Embassies in
Nairobi, Kenya, and Dares Salaam, Tanzania. 301 persons were killed and more than 5,000
were injured.

12 October 2000: Al Qaeda reportedly directed the attack on the USS Cole in the port of
Aden, Yemen. 17 U.S. Navy members were killed and 39 were injured. (Note: Some
experts do not include this attack as a "terrorist incident," because it was directed against a
military, not civilian, target, although the Cole was not engaged in any combat during that
period.)

These four attacks are the total number listed by the State Department as attributable to Al
Qaeda before September 11th. There were also numerous attempted attacks that were
disrupted, including:

1994: Al Qaeda reportedly plotted to assassinate Pope John Paul n during his visit to
Manilla.

1995: Al Qaeda reportedly plotted to assassinate President Clinton during a visit to the
Philippines, and to bomb a dozen U.S. trans-Pacific airline flights.

1 U.S. Department of State, Patterns of Global Terrorism, 2002 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government
Printing Office, April 2003), pp. 118-119; also accessible at [http//www.state.gov/s/ct/rls].
 CRS-3

1999: An Al Qaeda operative reportedly attempted to bomb the Los Angeles International
Airport.

1999: Simultaneous with the above, Al Qaeda reportedly plotted to carry out terrorist
operations against U.S. and Israeli tourists visiting Jordan for millennial celebrations.

Terrorist Attacks Attributable to Al Qaeda Immediately before

September 11, 2001

You have asked for the number of terrorist attacks in the period two-and-a- half years
before September 11, 2001. We have interpreted this to mean the time period from March
1, 1999 to September 11, 2001 (i.e., a total of 30 months before September 2001). To
answer this question, we are again relying upon the State Department's Patterns of Global
Terrorism, 2002:

There were no terrorist attacks that we have been able to identify as attributed to Al Qaeda
during 1999.

12 October 2000: Al Qaeda reportedly directed the attack on the USS Cole in the port of
Aden, Yemen. 17 U.S. Navy members were killed and 39 were injured. (Note: As
mentioned above, some experts do not include this attack as a "terrorist incident," because
it was directed against a military, not civilian, target, although the Cole was not engaged in
any combat during that period.)

The U.S. State Department's Patterns of Global Terrorism lists no more major attacks
attributed to Al Qaeda between October 2000 and September 11,2001. Thus, it appears that
there was one major attack publicly attributed to Al Qaeda in the thirty months before 9/11.

The following Al Qaeda plots were reported by the State Department as disrupted
during this time period (March 1, 1999 to September 11, 2001):

1999: An Al Qaeda operative reportedly attempted to bomb the Los Angeles International
Airport.

1999: Al Qaeda reportedly plotted to carry out terrorist operations against U.S. and Israeli
tourists visiting Jordan for millennial celebrations.

Terrorist Attacks Attributable to Al Qaeda Immediately after

September 11, 2001
You have asked for the number of terrorist attacks in the intervening two-and-a- half
years after September 11,2001 and to the present date. We have interpreted this to mean the
time period from September 12, 2001 to March 31, 2004 (i.e., a total of 30 months after
September 2001). To answer this question, we are relying upon the State Department's
Patterns of Global Terrorism, 2002, newspaper accounts, and the RAND-MTPT Terrorism
Incident database:2

2 RAND-MIPT Terrorism Incident Database is maintained by the RAND Corporation, in conjunction

(continued...)
 CRS-4

11 April 2002: Al Qaeda reportedly firebombed a synagogue in Tunisia, killing 19 and

injuring 22.

6 October 2002: Al Qaeda reportedly directed a suicide attack on a French oil tanker off the
coast of Yemen, killing 1 and injuring 4.

8 October 2002: Al Qaeda reportedly attacked U.S. military personnel in Kuwait, killing 1
person and injuring 1 person.

12 October 2002: Al Qaeda reportedly supported an attack (primarily carried out by Jemaah
Islamiya) on a nightclub in Bali, Indonesia, killing approximately 180 people.

28 November 2002: Al Qaeda reportedly bombed an Israeli-owned/patronized hotel in

Mombasa, Kenya, killing 15 and injuring 40. Simultaneously, Al Qaeda operatives
unsuccessfully attempted to shoot down an Israeli chartered plane using a surface-to-air
missile as it departed the airport in Mombasa, Kenya.

12 May 2003: Al Qaeda reportedly supported suicide attacks on three Western housing
compounds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia killed 34 people, including 8 Americans.

16 May 2003: Fourteen suicide bombers, member of a local group (Al-Salafiyyah al-
Jihadiyah, or "Salafia Jihadia") allegedly connected to Al Qaeda, carried out nearly
simultaneous attacks on five Western and Jewish targets in Casablanca, killing 45 people and
injuring more than 100.

15 November 2003: A group called Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, which reportedly has
connections to Al Qaeda, carried out twin suicide truck bomb attacks on synagogues in
Istanbul. 25 people were killed and more than 300 were injured.

20 November 2003: An organization called the Great Eastern Islamic Raiders' Front (or
IBDA-C), which reportedly may have received logistical training and support from Al Qaeda,
carried out suicide attacks against the British Consulate and the HSBC bank in Istanbul,
Turkey.

11 March 2004: Simultaneous bombings of four packed commuter trains in Madrid killed
190 people and injured more than 1400. Evidence is still being gathered; however, Spanish
police have in custody a number of Moroccan and other Islamist radicals who are reportedly
members of organizations such as Al-Salafiyyah al-Jihadiyah, the group that carried out the
Casablanca attacks and which reportedly has links with Al Qaeda. A self-described
spokesman for Al Qaeda claimed the organization's responsibility for the attacks, although
that has not been independently confirmed.

Please note that we are not including in this list terrorist attacks that have occurred in
Iraq, many of which are suspected to have a link to Al Qaeda (or its associated groups), but
whose genesis is still undetermined. There are a large number of attacks that could qualify

2(...continued)
with the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism. It is accessible
at [http://db.mipt.org/mipt_rand.cfm].
 CRS-5

for the list, but at this point the degree to which Al Qaeda is responsible is unclear and
disputed.

The following Al Qaeda plot was reportedly disrupted during this time period
(September 12, 2001 to March 31, 2004):

December 2001: Suspected Al Qaeda associate Richard Colvin Reid attempted to ignite a
shoe bomb on a transatlantic flight from Paris to Miami.

There may be other attacks that were disrupted during this period; however, we do not yet
have access to unclassified government sources that would give a more complete and
authoritative accounting of them. Thus it is not possible to determine the total number of
attacks attemptedby Al Qaeda and disrupted by counterterrorist efforts in the 30 months after
September llth.

Summary
To summarize, the U.S. State Department lists four attacks as attributable to Al Qaeda
in the total period of time before September 11th. In the thirty months immediately before
September 11, 2001, the U.S. State Department lists one. In the thirty months after
September 11,2001, the picture is much more complicated, since the State Department has
not yet published its assessment and we do not have completely reliable sources. Counting
only those attacks that are widely attributed to Al Qaeda in open sources, and realizing that
this list is likely to change as more information either confirming or disputing an Al Qaeda
role becomes available, we estimate that there have been approximately ten Al Qaeda
terrorist attacks since September 11,2001 (not including any potential Al Qaeda-associated
operations in Iraq). The total number of disrupted attacks since September 11, 2001 is not
known at this time. This is the best judgment that we can make on the available information
and within the time provided to prepare this memorandum.
jmasHKean
CHAIR
Date:
H, Hamilton
VICE CHAIR
lard Ben- Veniste
TO:
cOeland

IF. Fielding
FROM; Dianna Campagna

ie S. GoreJicJs

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The attached correspondence from
i Lehman is being forwarded to you for information and consideration. A copy has
othyj. Roemer
also been sent to Team(s) "~^~ _ _ for their information. If you
s R Thompson
have any questions, please call me on 33 1-4082. Thank you.
pD.Zelikow
XITIVE DIRECTOR

TEL (202) 331-4060

FAX (202) 296-5545
www.9-1 lcommission.gov