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Robert W. Sherrill
ASQ Certified Quality Manager
Training objectives
1. To understand the theory underlying Statistical Process Control and how it can be applied as a tool for process control and continuous improvement. 2. To introduce the types of control charts typically used in the chemicals and materials industries. 3. To demonstrate how to generate control charts (and other useful things) using MINITAB software. 4. To demonstrate the use of some of the more advanced features of MINITAB Revision.
References
Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product By W.A. Shewhart, PhD , published 1931
Walter Shewhart (1891-1967), PhD Physics, Member of the Technical Staff at Bell Telephone Laboratories, is generally considered the father of Statistical Process Control and a major contributor to the application of statistics to manufacturing.
He was influential in the development of two other major quality leaders of the 20th century, W.E. Deming and Joseph Juran.
References
Understanding Variation: the Key to Managing Chaos Donald J. Wheeler, Second Edition, published 2000 Understanding Statistical Process Control Donald J. Wheeler and David S. Chambers, Second edition, published 1992 Advanced Topics in Statistical Process Control Donald J. Wheeler, published 1995 Donald J. Wheeler PhD is one of the most understandable of the current generation of authors on SPC. His books range from simple explanations of SPC (Understanding Variation) to a review of some of the most advanced questions in the field (Advanced Topics in Statistical Process Control). His book on Measurement Systems Analysis, Evaluating the Measurement Process, is also excellent.
References
Statistical Process Control (SPC) Reference Manual DaimlerChrysler Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and General Motors Corporation, Second Edition, Issued July 2005
This manual was developed by the U.S. automobile industry and the American Society for Quality as an introduction to the SPC as part of the QS 9000 automotive quality standard. It is a very practical guide to SPC, and has the added value of being recognized within the automobile industry (remember that ISO/TS 16949 is an automobile industry quality standard).
References
Articles regarding Non Normal SPC
1. William A. Levinson and Angela M. Polny, SPC for Tool Particle Counts, Semiconductor International, June 1, 1999 2. William A. Levinson, Statistical Process Control for Nonnormal Distributions, www.ctyankee.com/spc/nonnormal.html 3. Thomas Pyzdek, Non-Normal Distributions in the Real World, Quality Digest, December 1999 4. Robert W. Sherrill and Louis A. Johnson, Calculated Decisions, Quality Progress, January 2009
Robert W. Sherrill
ASQ Certified Quality Manager, Certified Quality Engineer, and Certified Six Sigma Black Belt March 24, 2011
What is a process?
a series of activities linked to perform a specific objective has a beginning, an end, and clearly identified inputs and outputs processes generally cut across organizational boundaries has a customer (internal or external)
reference: Management Accounting, Ansari, 1997)
Process Control begins with clearly defining the process to be used (every time):
Collect all parts needed for assembly
Assemble parts
By controlling all process inputs we can achieve a process output that is stable and in control
This chart is formally called a Cause and Effect diagram. More often it is called a fishbone diagram, or the Ishikawa diagram after its inventor, Dr. Kaoru Ishikawa. The Inputs bones are often referred to as the 4 Ms and an E.
There are other versions of this diagram with 5, 6 or even 8 Ms, but the basic concept is still the same.
Notice that there is a wide range of heights in this sample, but the average male passenger is about 68 inches tall. Notice also that the populations on either side of the average are significant, but not quite as large as the average. If we fitted a smooth curve to the tops of each of these columns it would be rather bell shaped.
56
60
64
68 72 height (inches)
76
80
84
Frequency
6 4 2 0
56
60
64
68 72 height (inches)
76
80
84
14 12 10
Mean StDev N
30.09 0.2706 92
Frequency
8 6 4 2 0
29.4
29.6
29.8
30.0 M
30.2
30.4
30.6
X bar +/- 3 Standard Deviations can be used to set Control Limits on a Control Chart
Control Chart for Component Assay Control Chart for Component "M" in a EKC Remover Product
31.0 UCL=30.895
30.5
Individual Value
30.0
_ X=30.094
*Historical note- Dr. Shewhart decided to use three standard deviations to establish control limits because it seemed to work
well in practice. There is no 3 Sigma Law that requires control limits to be set this way. It just works well!
And then be used to generate a Control Chart that can be used to predict future behavior:
Control Chart for Component Assay
Charts that have many excursions above the UCL or below the LCL are not stable or in control. There are evidently some special or assignable causes of variation that have not been identified or controlled.
The Individual, Moving Range chart works well with normally distributed data
Individual V alue
30.5 _ X=30.094
30.0
1.2
M oving Range
U C L=0.983
__ M R=0.301 LC L=0
I, MR charts are not recommended if the data are not normally distributed.
*Per Thomas Pyzdek, there is considerable debate over the value of moving R charts. Academic researchers have failed to
show statistical value in them. However, many practitioners (including the author) believe that moving R charts provide value additional information that can be used in trouble shooting). Reference The Complete Guide to the CQE. See also Wheeler, Advanced Topics in SPC, page 110.
Alright, Ive done that, but the histogram still looks funny
If you have already worked to control the 4ms and an E and the output data still look funny, then there are techniques that can be applied to make the data look normal.
Common transformations include taking the square root , log, natural log, or exponential of the data and treating that as the variable. I have not found this technique to be very useful, because the control limits are expressed in terms of the transformed number, not the real number.
Another solution that works well for those of you dealing with randomly selected samples is to work with averages and ranges
The average values of randomly selected samples from any distribution Will tend to be normally distributed when plotted on a histogram.
This phenomenon is explained by something called the Central Limit Theorem and is easily tested by taking any data set, randomly pulling samples, measuring them, calculating the average values, and plotting the results on a histogram.
An important thing to note on these dual charts is that both charts have to be in control for the process to be in control. In other words, an out of control point (which I will define later) on either chart requires investigation.
There are various types of out of control conditions defined for SPC charts
Types 1 to 4 are Western Electric Zone Tests There are additional tests for trends or unnatural patterns
Caution- different authors have different definitions and place more emphasis on some rules than others.
Type 1- a single data point above the Upper Control Limit, or below the Lower Control Limit
For stable, in control, processes, Type 1 out of control should be fairly rare (typically 1 to 3 times per one thousand opportunities).
Type 1 Conditions are typically what we, and our customers, respond to on control charts.
Dr. Wheelers comments*: This is the rule used by ShewhartFor most processes, it is not a matter of detecting small shifts in a process parameter, but rather of detecting major upsets in a timely fashion. Detection Rule One does this very well. In fact, Detection Rule One often results in so many signals that the personnel cannot follow up on each one. When this is the case, additional detection rules are definitely not needed.
Type 2- Whenever at least two out of three successive values fall on the same side of, and more than two sigma units away from, the central line.
Dr. Wheelers comments: Since it involves the use of more than one point on the chart it is considered to be a run testthis rule provides a reasonable increase in sensitivity without an undue increase in the false alarm rate. While we will rarely need to go beyond Rule One, this rule is a logical extension of Rule One. However, since this rule requires the construction of two-sigma lines it is not usually the first choice for an additional detection rule.
Type 3- Whenever at least four out of five successive values fall on the same side of, and more than one sigma units away from, the central line.
Dr. Wheelers comments: As a logical extension of Rule One and Rule Two, it provides a reasonable increase in sensitivity without an undue increase in the false alarm rate. However, since this rule requires the construction of one-sigma lines it is not one of the first rules selected as an additional detection rule.
Type 4- Whenever at least eight successive values fall on the same side of the central line.
Dr. Wheelers comments: Because of its simplicity, Rule Four is usually the first choice for an additional rule to use with Rule One. In fact, this detection rule is the sole additional criteria that Burr felt it was wise to use. As data approach the borderline of Inadequate Measurement Units the running record will become more discrete and it will be possible to obtain long runs about the central line when, in effect, many of the values in the long run are as close to the central line as possible.When a substantial proportion of the points in the a long run are essentially located at the central line it is unlikely that there has been any real change in the process.
Fourteen points in a row alternating up and down. Per Donald Wheeler*, these up and down trend tests are problematic. *
reference Advanced Topics in Statistical Process Control page 137
Major changes of equipment, materials and methods will require time for the new process to stabilize, and then a change of control limits!
Document the out of control point on the control chart, Document the Corrective Action taken to address the out of control condition.
For example I, MR charts of particle counts (considered a contaminant in this case) are often problematic
Individual V alue
U C L=5.93 _ X=2.03
M oving Range
6 4 2 0 1 8
U C L=4.783
A more detailed look at the process capability analysis should raise concerns too
Process Capability Sixpack of Aluminum
I C har t
1
C apability H istogr am
USL 1
Individual Value
10
1
5 0
S pecifications U S L 75
15
22
29
36
43
50
57
64
71
11
22
33
44
55
66
UCL=4.783 __ MR=1.464
0 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71
LCL=0 -5 0 5 10
C apability P lot Within S tDev 1.29776 Cp * C pk 18.74 Within O v erall S pecs O v erall S tDev 2.07252 Pp * P pk 11.74 C pm *
Values
5 0 50 55 60 Observation 65 70
40
Frequency
30
20
10
-2
4 6 Aluminum
10
12
An alternative set of control limits using a Non Normal PDF looks more useful
Al (ppb) by ICPMS
03/02/06 - 06/23/06 USL = 75 ppb
15
UCL = 14
Individual Value
10
_ X=3
0 1 8 15 22 29 36 Observation 43 50 57 64 71
7.5
Moving Range
5.0
UCL=4.783
2.5
0.0
Method for Calculating Control Limits using Non Normal Probability Distribution Functions
To find the best fitting probability distribution (s) we examine various probability plots and look for the lowest Anderson-Darling values.
Probability Plot for Aluminum
N ormal - 95% C I 99.9 99 90 99.9 99 90 Lognormal - 95% C I G oodness of F it Test N ormal A D = 6.164 P -V alue < 0.005 Lognormal A D = 2.134 P -V alue < 0.005 3-P arameter Lognormal A D = 0.326 P -V alue = * E xponential A D = 5.468 P -V alue < 0.003
P er cent
50 10 1 0.1 0 4 A luminum 8
P er cent
P er cent
P er cent
0.10 1.00 10.00 A luminum - T hr eshold 100.00
50 10 1 0.1 0.01
10 1 0.1 0.001
0.010
10.000
Step 3: Perform capability studies with the best fitting probability distribution(s): Lognormal
Process Capability Sixpack of Aluminum
I C har t
Individual Value
UCL=12.95 10 5 0 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71
C apability H istogr am
USL
S pecifications U S L 75
_ X=2.03 LCL=0.17 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
1.0
10.0
Overall
Values
5 0 50 55 60 Observation 65 70
Specs
Step 3: Perform capability studies with the best fitting probability distribution(s): 3 parameter Lognormal
Process Capability Sixpack of Aluminum
I C har t
Individual Value
30 UCL=32.74
C apability H istogr am
USL
S pecifications U S L 75
15 _ X=2.03 LCL=0.58 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
C apability P lot O v erall Location -0.379844 S cale 1.2836 Threshold 0.567491 Pp * P pk 2.34
Overall
Values
5 0 50 55 60 Observation 65 70
Specs
Individual Value
10
_ X=3
0 1 8 15 22 29 36 Observation 43 50 57 64 71
7.5
Moving Range
5.0
UCL=4.783
2.5
0.0
Let us assume that we found an assignable cause that explains these two points. Lets take another look at the control limits without them.
Histogram of Aluminum
Normal 50
Mean StDev N 2.033 2.065 71
40
Frequency
30
20
10
-2
4 6 Aluminum
10
12
20
Frequency
15
10
-1.2
0.0
1.2
2.4 Aluminum
3.6
4.8
6.0
P er cent
50 10 1 0.1 0 4 A luminum 8
P er cent
P er cent
P er cent
0.10 1.00 10.00 A luminum - T hr eshold 100.00
50 10 1 0.1 0.01
10 1 0.1 0.001
0.010
10.000
But the resultant control limits and chart look more reasonable to me
Process Capability Sixpack of Aluminum
I C har t
Individual Value
C apability H istogr am
UCL=23.18
USL
20
S pecifications U S L 75
10 _ X=1.77 LCL=0.58 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
0.0 10.2 20.4 30.6 40.8 51.0 61.2 71.4
4 2 0 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
C apability P lot O v erall Location -0.434359 S cale 1.18435 Threshold 0.560101 Pp * P pk 3.36
Overall
Specs
Step 6- Document the new control limits in our quality system, and continue monitoring the process
New control limits are documented in the appropriate QMS records. Out of control points are documented via the Corrective Action System. Control charts are reviewed during monthly SPC Team meetings:
Trends Out of control points/corrective action plans Appropriateness of control limits Process capability indices:
Cpk for normal distributions Ppu, Ppl or Ppk for non normal distributions
Cp
Cp = specification range / 6 sigma
Cp of greater than one tells us that the process may be able capable of meeting the specification if properly targeted (centered).
Cpk
Cpk = (USL - average) / 3 sigma or = (average - LSL)/ 3 sigma
whichever is least The Cpk tells how capable of the process is of meeting the specification where it is currently targeted (centered).
Cpk
When using a Non Normal PDF, the most appropriate measure of process capability is the Ppk (based on the median)
C apability H istogr am
USL
S pecifications U S L 40
LCL=-1.76 0 6 12 18 24 30 36
__ MR=2.89 LCL=0 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 0 6 12 18
C apability P lot Within S tDev 2.56206 Cp * C pk 4.43 Within O v erall S pecs O v erall S tDev 2.8435 Pp * P pk 3.99 C pm *
Values
C apability H istogr am
USL
S pecifications U S L 40
10
_ X=5.93 LCL=1.25 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 0 6 12 18 24 30 36
Overall
Values
Specs
Using a Non Normal PDF generally raises Upper Control Limits and lowers Process Capability estimates.
UCL 13.61 22.51 LCL -1.76 1.25 Process Capability Index 4.43 2.02
These techniques should never be used to set outrageously high (or low) Control Limits. Use the team approach and common sense.
Outliers should be carefully examined for Special Causes of variation. If Special Causes of variation are found (or even suspected), eliminate these points from the dataset, and repeat the control limit calculations, just as you would when using traditional X bar +/- 3S Control Limits.