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Non-agricultural commodities

Natural gas fundamentals (billion cubic metre)



2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

World
Natural gas production

2987

3066

2945

2876

2778

Natural gas consumption

2,940

3,019

2,938

2,843

2,770

Dry natural gas imports

998

973

924

899

Dry natural gas exports

981

943

897

860

187,490

185,020

177,050

173,800

172,920

Proven gas reserves


Proven gas reserves - former Soviet Union

58530

57,000

51,500

51,700

51,690

Proven gas reserves - OECD

16,180

16,630

16,560

15,700

15,770

India
1,120

1,090

1,060

1,080

1,100

Natural gas production

Proven gas reserves

39

31

30

30

29

Natural gas consumption

52

41

40

37

36

Natural gas (LNG) imports

13

11

10

5.11%

2.69%

2.68%

4.21%

Natural gas exports


Average daily volatility (MCX spot prices)

Source: BP statistical & Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Energy Information Administration, MCX

US summer cooling degree-days (population-weighted)


Month
2009
2008

2007

2006

2005

normal

APR

29

31

23

53

33

MAY

117

91

119

109

104

JUN

222

263

236

236

216

JUL

284

334

310

388

323

AUG

307

283

366

337

292

SEP
Total Summer

169

171

191

138

160

1,127

1,173

1,246

1,261

1,128

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

US winter cooling degree-days (population-weighted)


Month
2009
2008

2007

2006

2005

normal

OCT

330

281

175

305

236

282

NOV

442

533

521

467

466

539

DEC

867

832

800

690

866

817

JAN

931

969

892

841

687

917

FEB

809

705

741

853

731

732

MAR

541

583

617

502

600

593

3920

3,904

3,746

3,657

3,586

3,880

Total Winter

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service


200 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

Economic parameters impacting Natural gas prices



2009
US working natural gas in storage (billion cubic metres)
Five year average (billion cubic metres)

89
72

2008

2007

2006

2005

81
68

82
65.1

86
64

74
60.3

Hurricance activity - North Atlantic Ocean


Dates active
May 28 -
May 30 -
May 9 -
June 10 -

Nov - 10
Nov - 10
Dec - 13
Oct - 02
Total cyclones recorded
11
17
17
10
Total landfalls
4
33
16
7
Approximate damage (in US$ billion)
0.077
48
3
0.5
Deaths
6
855
394
7

July 8, 05 Jan 6, 06
31
29
130
3865

Real GDP (%)


US
-2.5
1.1
2
2.9
Japan
-5.4
-0.3
1.9
2.8
Eurozone
-4.0
1
2.3
2.6
China
8.7
9
11.5
11.1
India
5.5
7.3
8.9
9.7
OECD
-3.4
1
2.6
3.2

3.1
2.4
1.4
10.4
9
2.7

Consumer Price inflation (% change)


US
0.0
1
2.5
2.7
Japan
-1.7
0.5
1.4
0.3
Eurozone
0.5
1
3
2.2
China
0.8
3
5.9
2
India
7.5
5
7
6.7
OECD
0.1
1
3
2.2

3.4
0.3
2.2
1.4
5.3
2.1

Industrial Output (YoY % change)


US
-2.0
-8.9
1.7
1.5
Japan
5.3
-20.7
1.5
5.4
Eurozone
-6.8
-12.2
1.4
5.3
China
11.0
5.7
17.4
14.7
India
11.7
-0.2
8
13.4

2.9
3.4
2.5
16.5
5.7

Interest rates (%)


US (Fed funds target)
0.00 - 0.25
0.25
4.25
5.25
Japan (12 month T-Bills)
0.13
0.249
0.581
0.618
Eurozone (refinance rates)
1
2.5
4
3.5
China (lending rate )
5.31
5.31
7.47
6.12
India (repo rate )
4.75
6.5
7.75
7.25

4.25
0.066
2.25
5.58
6.25

Money Supply ( YoY % change)


US
3.7
9.6
5.6
5.4
Japan
2.2
0.7
0.7
-0.6
Eurozone
-0.3
7.5
11.6
9.9
China
27.58
17.82
16.72
16.9
India
17.2
19.6
22.84
19.33

4.1
0.3
7.4
17.6
17.79

Equity Index (points) Year End


US (Dow Jones)
10428
8776
13265
12463
India (Sensex)
17464
9647
20287
13787

10718
9398

OECD Indicators
OECD Total monetary aggr. & comp. broad money index
135.8
127.3
116.9
107.6
OECD Total purchasing power index manufacturing
N/A
113.83
106.9
103.7
OECD Total CPI OECD Groups total energy IPB
114.4
127.8
113.7
109.3

US ISM manufacturing index
54.9
32.9
49.1
52.2
US auto sales (YoY % change)
15.1%
-35.6%
-2.9%
-3.6%
US pending home sales (YoY % change )
9.2
5.7
-23.9
-6.3

100
100
100
54.9
-3.7%
-6.3

Source: OECD, EIA, NOAA, CPM Gold Yearbook, IMF, World Bank, BSE, Dow Jones

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 201

Non-agricultural commodities

Natural gas prices



Month

Open

Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Nov-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Jun-06
May-06
Apr-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Nov-05
Oct-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05

220.20
242.70
260.20
225.10
239.00
229.50
146.50
175.40
186.70
184.00
171.00
191.40
218.80
216.00
272.80
324.90
324.00
354.00
353.00
388.20
574.80
494.30
440.00
400.70
373.80
314.50
293.50
292.50
325.90
274.00
228.60
252.00
276.50
321.50
324.00
335.50
322.30
341.10
282.10
390.00
342.60
257.90
286.80
379.30
265.50
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

Monthly MCX futures prices (Rs/mmBtu)


High
Low
Close
225.00
266.70
279.40
281.60
246.50
252.60
239.40
195.20
197.00
209.10
226.80
196.00
226.80
236.90
303.80
337.40
350.30
368.70
385.70
404.20
591.80
577.60
522.60
459.00
416.20
377.80
331.80
297.60
342.20
329.10
287.70
294.50
277.40
332.30
335.00
343.40
337.80
354.00
351.70
391.50
403.50
386.20
288.80
398.90
364.70
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

174.80
220.10
236.30
205.70
194.50
201.50
118.60
142.60
158.20
168.90
169.20
165.50
185.10
196.00
214.50
251.40
298.70
312.50
314.50
336.10
374.10
492.50
426.50
373.00
366.00
300.30
292.50
274.60
291.50
266.20
215.30
225.10
237.70
270.60
310.00
305.10
298.00
311.30
268.60
271.10
327.50
253.20
213.60
286.80
264.90
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

177.60
220.90
239.60
259.50
226.10
238.00
231.00
147.50
174.60
186.00
184.80
173.90
190.90
214.90
217.40
270.70
324.40
321.60
354.50
355.10
388.30
573.80
497.30
439.50
399.60
373.80
314.00
296.30
294.00
324.70
273.90
230.60
252.70
277.30
320.60
325.20
334.00
324.00
339.20
282.70
391.60
341.30
261.70
288.30
364.70
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

MCX spot prices (Rs/mmBtu)


Monthly average
196.39
242.71
258.01
249.50
216.84
225.27
169.51
165.40
174.96
189.56
192.67
181.80
206.57
216.22
250.93
282.64
328.10
329.40
344.79
359.55
487.29
545.40
478.94
411.00
388.20
340.32
312.34
283.33
311.24
598.38
251.43
254.32
261.30
308.39
319.67
322.44
318.13
335.20
295.77
327.34
359.06
308.25
246.69
330.81
295.39
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

Monthly NYMEX futures prices (USD/mmbtu)


Open
High
Low
Close
4.77
5.25
5.71
4.82
5.03
4.83
2.98
3.63
3.85
3.87
3.39
3.79
4.27
4.32
5.55
6.55
6.69
7.52
7.50
9.12
13.40
11.80
10.90
10.00
9.39
8.07
7.57
7.21
8.38
6.86
5.32
6.20
6.72
7.96
7.83
7.77
7.22
7.71
6.30
8.73
7.60
5.61
5.89
8.25
6.10
6.42
6.53
7.20
6.71
9.33
10.70
12.60
12.20
13.80
11.40
7.90
6.98
6.38
6.52
7.65

4.87
5.68
6.11
6.04
5.29
5.32
4.98
4.16
3.90
4.39
4.58
3.90
4.42
4.88
6.24
6.69
7.36
7.94
8.32
9.60
13.70
13.40
12.10
11.40
10.30
9.50
8.48
7.54
8.71
8.48
7.04
7.19
6.85
8.21
8.23
8.01
7.77
8.04
7.97
8.75
9.05
7.93
6.13
8.62
8.26
7.33
7.13
8.28
7.56
9.82
11.00
15.80
12.70
14.80
14.60
12.30
8.29
7.92
6.84
7.90

3.82
4.74
5.06
4.43
4.16
4.23
2.41
2.69
3.23
3.55
3.36
3.16
3.60
3.92
4.40
5.20
6.10
6.00
7.00
7.60
8.80
12.00
10.00
9.30
8.70
7.60
7.50
6.80
7.20
6.60
5.20
5.20
5.80
6.60
7.50
7.30
6.80
7.10
6.00
5.70
7.30
5.50
4.10
5.90
5.40
5.80
5.80
6.50
6.50
6.60
7.80
11.00
11.00
12.00
11.00
7.90
6.90
6.40
6.00
6.60

3.87
4.81
5.13
5.57
4.85
5.05
4.84
2.98
3.65
3.84
3.84
3.37
3.78
4.20
4.42
5.62
6.51
6.78
7.44
7.94
9.12
13.35
11.70
10.84
10.10
9.37
8.07
7.48
7.30
8.33
6.87
5.47
6.19
6.77
7.94
7.86
7.73
7.30
7.67
6.30
8.84
7.53
5.62
6.05
8.21
6.10
6.38
6.56
7.21
6.71
9.32
11.23
12.59
12.21
13.92
11.47
7.89
6.98
6.38
6.59

US spot prices (USD/mmbtu)


Monthly average

Open

4.29
5.32
5.82
5.34
3.68
4.00
2.99
3.14
3.38
3.80
3.83
3.49
3.96
4.51
5.23
5.84
6.70
6.74
7.62
8.25
11.08
12.68
11.27
10.18
9.41
8.55
7.98
7.11
7.11
6.74
6.07
6.23
6.22
7.35
7.64
7.60
7.11
8.00
6.53
6.73
7.41
5.84
4.90
7.13
6.17
6.20
6.24
7.17
6.88
7.53
8.69
13.05
10.30
13.63
12.42
9.52
7.62
7.18
6.47
7.18

31.55
36.25
37.00
29.49
36.80
32.00
25.75
21.50
26.00
26.25
27.90
34.25
34.50
63.00
60.00
58.80
75.80
81.80
78.30
61.50
72.80
65.00
60.00
57.70
53.30
50.30
52.00
50.40
52.50
44.70
27.50
26.80
23.30
21.40
17.90
20.00
20.00
22.90
31.30
45.00
57.40
51.90
43.40
37.40
39.00
39.10
39.00
43.60
45.00
59.30
85.00
108.00
59.40
48.50
41.00
34.70
31.90
29.40
30.00
30.20

ICE (UK) natural gas (GBP/therm)


High
Low
Close
31.90
37.30
41.75
35.00
36.90
38.90
34.50
26.90
26.45
28.00
29.60
35.50
37.50
63.60
68.30
65.50
77.90
84.00
87.00
79.70
72.80
73.60
66.30
67.00
58.30
55.00
61.00
56.90
60.80
55.30
42.80
28.00
32.60
21.80
26.00
20.20
24.50
23.00
33.60
45.40
57.40
58.00
56.50
43.60
42.00
40.20
39.50
44.10
62.00
71.00
90.00
114.00
117.00
60.30
49.00
40.80
35.00
32.30
31.40
31.20

28.35
31.27
32.50
27.45
27.15
30.50
21.50
18.20
19.60
24.75
24.75
25.50
29.00
33.00
52.00
53.00
58.00
66.00
71.00
51.75
55.00
64.00
59.00
58.00
51.00
47.00
51.00
50.00
45.00
41.00
27.00
24.00
22.00
17.00
18.00
14.00
18.00
16.00
23.00
32.00
38.00
43.00
33.00
33.00
38.00
36.00
31.00
39.00
44.00
45.00
61.00
80.00
57.00
44.00
35.00
31.00
31.00
26.00
30.00
29.00

29.71
31.34
38.77
33.72
29.57
36.81
32.42
26.10
22.29
25.99
26.19
28.51
31.97
33.52
62.25
58.53
60.97
76.11
85.26
78.64
62.24
73.30
65.38
60.58
57.93
53.54
51.18
52.28
50.58
54.27
42.55
27.51
28.07
21.36
20.88
17.15
20.29
18.81
23.27
32.22
46.89
56.27
54.82
43.46
37.71
39.57
38.80
39.46
43.74
45.02
61.44
81.80
107.50
60.00
48.52
40.78
34.86
32.03
29.67
29.19

RBI rate USD/ INR


Dollar index
Monthly average
45.50
46.33
45.96
46.63
46.59
46.72
48.39
48.36
48.47
47.78
48.61
50.08
51.23
49.22
48.83
48.64
49.00
48.64
45.56
42.94
42.84
42.82
42.13
40.02
40.36
39.73
39.37
39.44
39.44
39.51
40.34
40.82
40.42
40.77
40.78
42.15
44.03
44.16
44.33
44.63
44.85
45.47
46.12
46.54
46.46
46.06
45.41
44.95
44.48
44.33
44.40
45.65
45.73
44.82
43.92
43.63
43.54
43.59
43.49
43.74

80.81
80.27
77.98
77.00
75.40
76.17
77.19
78.53
79.71
80.26
82.11
85.55
86.71
86.84
84.83
83.65
86.77
83.53
78.37
76.21
72.79
73.41
73.05
72.38
72.72
75.77
76.00
76.79
75.67
77.78
79.14
80.87
80.61
82.21
82.01
81.95
83.17
84.28
84.58
83.07
84.72
86.11
85.25
84.91
85.61
85.37
84.69
88.13
89.58
90.26
88.83
90.63
91.37
89.54
87.99
87.86
89.55
88.33
85.63
84.24

Source: Exchanges websites, RBI, ICE

202 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 203

Non-agricultural commodities

World natural gas production by region & country - Outlook for 2015 (Quadrillion Btu)
Region Forecast release year

2010
2009
OECD North America
25
27.9
United States*
19.4
20.5
Canada
5.6
5.4
Mexico
-
2.1
OECD Europe
9.6
11
OECD Asia
3.5
2.8
Japan
-
0.2
South Korea
-
0
Australia/New Zealand
3.5
2.6
Other OECD
2.1
-
Total OECD
40.2
41.7

Non-OECD Europe & Eurasia
32.2
35
Russia
23
26.7
Other
9.2
8.3
Non-OECD Asia
15.8
15.6
China
2.9
3.4
India
-
2
Other non-OECD Asia
12.9
10.3
Middle East
20.9
17.8
Africa
11.3
9.6
Central & South America
6.6
7
Brazil
-
1
Other Central/South America
-
6
Total Non-OECD
86.8
85
Total World
126.9
126.7
Note: * includes supplemental production or forecast discrepancy
Source: Energy Information Administration

2008
27.1
19.6
5.7
1.8
11.2
2.9
0.2
0
2.7
41.2
36.1
26.9
9.3
17.2
3.2
2
12
16.9
10.7
7.3
0.7
6.5
88.3
129.5

Natural gas trading activity



MCX
NYMEX
ICE (UK)
Month
Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Nov-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Jun-06
May-06
Apr-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Nov-05
Oct-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05

597296
508156
901972
1057446
983755
1306570
1880018
1419262
1604219
1395465
696633
335013
239186
118124
88800
76673
57192
37573
114983
80679
75181
48145
40258
35838
50629
58270
72085
52889
75330
145212
220683
194097
116498
56638
64735
72435
214038
252161
268043
264821
350058
266576
383188
546150
142963
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

15801
10170
7003
9357
11885
6817
9014
42877
43636
35251
17709
13771
5402
1505
1903
884
457
288
1229
823
820
508
645
901
1008
1456
1170
1333
1689
1828
2046
6720
4646
3060
2560
2172
2467
2870
3433
7209
6538
4992
10178
9012
4519
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

4691010
4557698
4501942
5347178
4413904
5507775
5597662
4445944
3979357
4486552
3478986
2493091
2989920
2780551
2343719
2384252
2539865
3151675
3458479
3756124
4273971
3379074
3141953
3382892
2983598
3330580
2741217
2390939
2474062
3155437
2486465
3069117
2346727
2703626
2285014
2181057
1938669
2431720
2617276
1844836
1775475
1935134
2017651
2428749
1786249
1920553
2272497
1911616
1682199
1833896
1609894
1458655
1449478
1433396
1587595
2044365
1519793
1931946
1504071
1585960

830935
816126
776283
707590
714288
695972
672952
713161
715227
712804
685105
659775
624397
671554
682516
679760
718799
766597
881561
919430
942703
974174
898031
872489
865871
928172
898698
849704
818517
748047
750875
765421
809913
803710
760212
732753
740862
758890
899420
874752
889654
907876
943162
927572
908412
852733
833675
728557
645100
607619
533212
539226
538843
525282
546532
501270
499993
470677
476850
471311

161540
142470
183560
113315
151470
173805
166760
97880
124545
114050
109785
111935
120325
146665
150775
65100
75045
91455
71460
68850
77440
58310
59920
82985
62185
79120
78945
69925
101725
117705
105870
124230
100110
65570
76305
69025
90755
77970
59125
25860
60255
61575
77810
45850
41925
36330
44765
34735
31250
39790
45450
35655
52420
34155
34110
29755
36150
26080
25350
29220

119410
97580
81848
83575
87665
93472
100430
105810
96645
93996
89627
82393
75270
56060
46270
43869
43701
45475
51974
49680
51210
45480
41635
36815
34695
28041
28450
24180
25700
29645
31350
32525
31515
27515
28185
27180
27665
24840
20830
18640
18215
18065
19990
17360
13390
14675
13219
9795
9265
9650
12360
13270
17220
15845
17245
20340
21470
21657
19365
17535

Note: Vol and OI in lots; Aggregate volume in all contracts during the month; Cumulative open interest in all contracts at the month-end.
Source: Exchanges websites
204 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 205

Non-agricultural commodities

Carbon fundamentals
Carbon Market
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Vol Val Vol Val Vol Val Vol Val Vol Val

(MCO2e) (MUS$) (MtCO2e) (MUS$) (MtCO2e) (MUS$) (MtCO2e) (MUS$) (MtCO2e) (MUS$)

Natural Gas Production 2009

USA

20%

Project based transactions


Primary CDM

Others

Russian
Federation

50%

18%

211

2678

404

6511

552

7433

450

4,813

341

2,417

Secondary CDM

1055

17543

1072

26277

240

5451

25

444

10

221

Sub total (including JI and


voluntary market)

1338

20913

1558

33574

876

13646

508

5477

382

2894

Allowances market
EU ETS

Iran
Source: BP Statistical Review 2010

4%

Norway

Canada

3%

5%

6326

118474

3093

100526

2060

49065

1101

24357

321

7908

34

117

31

183

25

224

20

225

59

New South Wales


Chicago Climate Exchange

Natural Gas Consumption 2009

41

50

69

309

23

72

10

38

Sub total (including others)

7362

122822

3278

101492

2108

49361

1131

24620

328

7971

Total carbon market

8700

143735

4836

135066

2984

63007

1639

30097

710

10865

Source: State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006 by the World Bank
USA

22%
Others

54%

Carbon fundamentals
Status of CDM projects Number

Russian
Federation

At validation

13%

Source: BP Statistical Review 2010

UK

5%

3%

3%

Issued CERs

419,938,677

316,818,951

Request for review

39

Total CERs requested

425,862,768

324,998,220

Correction requested

49

Under review

24

Total in the process of registration


Withdrawn

Natural Gas Prices, Oil Gas Ratio and Spread Between Natural Gas Second and First Month
Contract
2.5

30
Natural Gas Prices

Oil Gas Ratio

25

59

Request for registration

Iran

Canada

Spread (NG2 - NG1) RHS


20

150

Validation negative by DOEs

158

Registered, no issuance of CERs


Registered. CER issued

673
1519
743

Total registered

2262

Total number of projects (incl. rejected & withdrawn)

6184

0
-0.5

10

49

Rejected by EB
Validation terminated by DOEs

Source:www.cdmpipeline.org As on 1st July, 2010

Source:UNFCCC

171

1.5

0.5
15

2879

CERs - Title

2009
2008
Number of CERs

CDM projects
Annual average Expected CERs

CERs* until end of 2012**
CDM project pipeline: >
4200 of which:
2227 are registered

N/A

> 2,900,000,000

366,234,826

> 1,790,000,000

14,820,391

> 40,000,000

92 are requesting registration

* Assumption: All activities deliver simultaneously their expected annual


average emission reductions
** Assumption: No renewal of crediting periods
N/A - Not Available
Source:UNFCCC As on 1st July, 2010

-1
-1.5

-2
0
Mar-1

May-0

Jul-0

Sep-0

Nov-0

Jan-0

Mar-0

Jul-0

May-0

Sep-0

Jan-01

Nov-01

Mar-0

May-9

Jul-9

Sep-9

Jan-9

Nov-9

Mar-9

Jul-9

May-9

Sep-9

Nov-91

Jan-91

-2.5

Source: NYMEX

206 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 207