PROLOGUE

EDITORIALS

EXPERTS' VIEWS

INDIAN ECONOMY

Coffee fundamentals - World and India (in `000' 60 kgs bags)

World
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Consumption
Exports
Total supply
Ending Stocks
India
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Consumption
Exports
Total Supply
Ending Stocks
Area under Production (000 Ha)
Average daily volatility of
MCX spot prices

2011-12e

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2001-02

25,832
139,084
102,413
131,025
104,967
267,335
31,343

24,418
137,908
104,473
132,497
107,455
266,799
26,847

35,663
126,781
99,581
135,871
101,736
262,025
24,418

28,647
133,403
96,831
123,742
99,476
258,881
35,663

33,597
121,753
96,809
127,033
96,479
252,159
28,647

31,254
131,819
97,470
124,107
102,839
260,543
33,597

20,875
117,521
1,478
26,319
90,937
139,874
22,618

40
4800
500
1500
3750
5340
90
-

140
5,100
550
1,650
4,100
5,790
40
405P

250
4,850
725
1,575
4,110
5,825
140
400

65
4,375
555
1,625
3,120
4,995
250
394

95
4,660
490
1,360
3,820
5,245
65
388

255
4,665
334
1,550
3,609
5,254
95
382

20
5,020
0
975
3,702
5,040
363
347

2.17%

1.66%

1.96%

2.09%

Note: e - source estimates provided by USDA, data retrieved on July 29, 2011; P: Provisional; Market Year (India): October to September,
Source: USDA; Dept. of Agriculture, GOI; MCX

Coffee balance sheet 2011-12e - World (in `000' 60 kgs bags)

Country
Beginning
Stocks
Brazil
Vietnam
Indonesia
Colombia
India
Others
World Total

2,846
1,784
143
284
50
20,731
25,838

Supply
Production
54,500
18,725
9,000
9,000
5,125
42,734
139,084

Imports
0
106
200
740
700
100,667
102,413

Consumption

Demand
Exports

19,500
1,050
1,900
1,200
1,750
105,625
131,025

32,000
17,430
7,400
8,650
4,075
35,412
104,967

Ending
Stocks
5,846
2,135
43
174
50
23,095
31,343

Note: e - source estimates provided by USDA, data retrieved on July 29, 2011;
Source: USDA

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DATABANK - AGRI COMMODITIES

DATABANK - NON-AGRI COMMODITIES

Coffee - BRICS Nations fact sheet (in `000' 60 kgs bags)

World

Production

Import

Export

Consumption

Total
Supply

Population
(in million)

Per capita
availability
(kg)

Per capita
consumption
(kg)

2011-12e

Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa

54,500
0
5,125
0
0

0
4,300
700
450
425

32,000
0
4,075
0
0

19,500
4,300
1,750
450
425

57,346
4,300
5,875
450
425

206.47
137.97
1,208.36
1,341.85
49.83

16.91
1.86
0.30
0.02
0.52

5.75
1.86
0.09
0.02
0.52

2010-11

Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa

54,500
0
5,125
0
0

0
4,300
700
450
425

32,000
0
4,075
0
0

19,500
4,300
1,750
450
425

57,346
4,300
5,875
450
425

203.43
138.74
1,189.17
1,336.72
49.00

16.91
1.86
0.30
0.02
0.52

5.75
1.86
0.09
0.02
0.52

2009-10

Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa

44,800
0
4,825
0
0

0
4,075
750
425
400

29,780
0
3,850
0
0

18,750
4,075
1,725
425
400

51,376
4,075
5,625
425
400

201.10
139.39
1,173.11
1,330.14
49.11

15.33
1.75
0.29
0.02
0.49

5.59
1.75
0.09
0.02
0.49

2008-09

Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa

53,300
0
4,375
0
0

0
3,455
555
320
330

31,475
0
3,120
0
0

18,030
3,455
1,825
320
330

56,081
3,455
4,995
320
330

198.74
140.04
1,166.08
1,338.61
49.05

16.93
1.48
0.26
0.01
0.40

5.44
1.48
0.09
0.01
0.40

2007-08

Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa

39,100
0
4,660
0
0

0
4,520
490
300
410

27,290
0
3,820
0
0

17,390
4,520
1,360
300
410

47,461
4,520
5,245
300
410

196.34
140.70
1,148.00
1,330.04
48.78

14.50
1.93
0.27
0.01
0.50

5.31
1.93
0.07
0.01
0.50

2006-07

Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa

46,700
0
4,665
0
0

0
4,410
334
300
430

29,260
0
3,609
0
0

16,720
4,410
1,550
300
430

54,341
4,410
5,254
300
430

190.01
141.38
1,129.87
1,321.85
44.00

17.16
1.87
0.28
0.01
0.59

5.28
1.87
0.08
0.01
0.59

Note: e - source estimates provided by USDA, data retrieved on July 29, 2011; In `000' 60 kgs bags unless otherwise specied, Population gures for 2011-12 is arrived at by
calculating CAGR from 2004-05 to 2010-11; Source: USDA, World Bank, IFM, CIA World Fact Book

Coffee: Ending Stock & Prices

in 000 tonnes

Prices
India ES

500

3500

World ES (in 50x)

Int.Prices

400

2800

Mumbai Prices

300

2100

200

1400

100

700

0
2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

Source:Agmarknet & USDA. ES - ending stock, Indian prices Rs/kg, Int. prices Rs/kg

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PROLOGUE
EDITORIALS

EXPERTS' VIEWS

INDIAN ECONOMY

Coffee select state/district-wise production in India (in `000' tonnes)

States/Districts

2010-11

2009-10#

2008-09#

2007-08#

2006-07#

74.34
110.02
29.43
213.78

70.15
111.20
24.35
205.70

71.75
114.37
28.05
214.17

63.70
108.70
19.18
191.58

72.55
107.50
25.98
206.03

Kerala
Wyanad
Travancore
Nelliampathies
Sub Total

55.28
8.15
2.23
65.65

49.95
7.43
1.88
59.25

47.51
7.82
1.88
57.20

40.33
6.68
2.00
49.00

49.00
8.15
2.33
59.48

Tamil Nadu
Pulneys
Nilgiris
Shevroys (Salem)
Anamalais (Coimbatore)
Sub Total

6.03
5.48
3.65
1.50
16.65

7.05
5.75
4.05
2.50
19.35

5.83
5.20
3.10
2.50
16.63

8.00
4.85
3.15
2.10
18.10

7.90
5.10
3.23
2.00
18.23

Non Traditional Areas

Andhra Pradesh & Orissa
North Eastern Region
Sub Total
Non Conventional Areas

5.75
0.17
5.92
-

5.19
0.12
5.30
-

4.88
0.13
5.01
-

3.18
0.15
3.33
-

4.09
0.19
4.28
-

302.00

289.60

293.00

262.00

288.00

Karnataka
Chikmagalur
Kodagu*
Hassan
Sub Total

Grand Total (India)

Note: * - Including Mysore; # : Post-Monsoon Estimates
Source: Coffee Board.

Coffee state-wise monthly

arrivals (in tonnes)

Coffee state-wise monthly

arrivals (in tonnes)

Coffee state-wise monthly

arrivals (in tonnes)

Month

Kerala

Month

Kerala

Month

Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09

42.5
115.7
71.9
39.7
40.9
24.9
13.3
31.2
230.5
105.1
169.9
102.2
276.0
96.0
101.0
71.5
25.0
25.5
35.6
13.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
11.0
230.0

Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Nov-06

1.5
0.5
4.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
21.5
4.5
97.5
141.8
49.0
44.5
69.5
34.5
53.0
55.0
48.5
106.5
36.0
5.5
31.5
81.0
177.0
45.0
66.2

Oct-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Jun-06
May-06
Apr-06
Source: Dept. of Agriculture, GOI

Kerala
99.0
25.0
74.0
112.3
203.7
195.3
223.2

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DATABANK - AGRI COMMODITIES

DATABANK - NON-AGRI COMMODITIES

Data of top 5 countries (`000' tonnes)

Production
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12e
0

50000
Brazil

Vietnam

Indonesia

100000
Colombia

India

150000

Other

Note: e - source estimates; Source: USDA

Imports
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12e
0

20000
EU-27

United States

40000
Japan

60000
Russia

80000
Algeria

100000

120000

100000

120000

Others

Note: e - source estimates; Source: USDA

Exports
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12e
0

20000
Brazil

Vietnam

40000
Colombia

60000
Indonesia

80000
India

Others

Note: e - source estimates; Source: USDA

Consumption
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12e
0

20000
EU-27

United States

40000
Brazil

60000
Japan

80000
Russia

100000

120000

140000

Others

Note: e - source estimates; Source: USDA

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PROLOGUE
EDITORIALS

EXPERTS' VIEWS

INDIAN ECONOMY

Coffee prices and trading activity

MCX Spot prices, Kaushal Nagar
(in Rs/Kg)
Month
Monthly
average
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Nov-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Jun-06
May-06
Apr-06

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
80.27
69.71
60.85
59.01
57.84
59.48
62.44
62.15
63.57
66.41
71.41
68.33
68.60
68.72
73.20
76.16
78.36
79.02
81.02
90.08
88.47
83.56
97.77
98.74
102.07
97.96
93.87
90.19
102.14
92.36
78.76
72.57
74.23
81.11
75.11
70.95
74.51
75.46
68.08
66.03
66.28
69.14
70.06
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T

Months
high
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
82.80
78.20
63.60
61.50
62.00
61.90
64.10
64.50
68.60
69.00
73.60
72.40
73.40
73.70
75.00
78.70
80.30
81.10
84.60
99.70
101.00
93.90
102.30
103.00
111.80
104.41
100.11
92.90
112.82
106.41
83.43
75.66
77.83
88.33
80.73
74.21
77.18
78.04
70.47
67.89
68.04
71.33
70.17
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T

Average monthly
domestic prices
(Rs/kg)

Months
Low

Arabica
Cherry

Robusta
Cherry

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
77.80
62.00
57.70
56.00
55.70
56.40
60.40
59.80
60.70
63.20
66.90
64.70
62.90
60.40
71.50
72.30
73.90
76.90
74.90
83.30
76.20
76.70
93.90
93.10
97.50
93.91
86.42
88.17
91.02
82.85
75.15
69.51
71.03
72.82
70.31
67.91
70.99
69.81
64.33
63.45
64.24
66.19
69.95
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T
N/T

168.67
148.50
144.00
N/A
125.25
122.10
110.00
115.50
112.00
114.67
128.00
120.00
N/A
101.25
N/A
103.50
102.63
102.17
110.00
110.00
105.25
109.00
109.00
96.00
N/A
N/A
118.00
121.00
120.00
116.90
109.22
113.00
105.53
108.06
117.00
102.10
102.00
97.76
N/A
N/A
92.70
80.50
92.28
91.78
100.00
93.50
102.00
96.82
88.00
N/A
92.00
N/A
88.00
87.50
82.00
N/A
85.00

89.75
88.00
83.17
80.97
83.33
79.47
72.38
71.00
67.00
N/A
76.50
81.67
80.50
81.24
80.83
82.50
80.00
82.63
77.83
83.00
N/A
83.00
96.00
86.97
96.00
98.59
100.00
106.00
102.17
101.11
95.50
95.00
N/A
N/A
99.50
79.08
79.74
79.44
77.94
76.00
77.79
78.70
76.44
71.31
71.14
70.68
72.14
N/A
71.07
70.70
67.75
71.00
62.04
59.77
56.39
58.50
54.50

WPI of
Coffee

236.80
236.80
228.90
228.90
228.90
225.80
224.80
224.80
231.40
238.80
241.30
240.00
237.70
230.90
228.60
226.90
229.20
229.90
232.70
227.40
209.40
216.70
214.50
213.60
215.40
216.30
216.70
210.40
206.70
205.80
205.50
198.60
193.50
190.20
180.50
180.50
180.10
180.10
179.40
173.70
173.50
173.50
173.50
174.30
172.00
172.00
173.40
173.90
174.40
174.30
168.50
152.00
151.00
151.00
151.00
151.40
151.60

Coffee Arabica NYBOTICE futures

Closing
price
(USD/kg)
5.29
4.42
4.48
4.03
3.89
3.88
3.61
2.95
2.97
3.00
2.84
2.90
3.00
3.13
2.99
2.82
2.67
2.82
2.59
3.03
2.54
2.55
2.41
2.62
2.47
2.52
2.49
2.88
3.13
3.07
3.33
2.95
2.97
2.81
3.63
3.05
3.00
2.78
2.68
2.84
2.48
2.52
2.45
2.47
2.27
2.41
2.59
2.59
2.78
2.64
2.39
2.37
2.29
2.19
2.19
2.18
2.36

Volume
in lots^

Open
interest in
lots^^

245,084 140,170
479,216 127,596
351,134 151,645
318,166 136,645
554,163 140,836
369,104 169,398
728,194 165,658
362,053 136,152
526,440 135,557
378,244 130,381
503,189 122,640
319,390 128,342
275,581 125,779
459,671 110,355
316,712 123,488
235,543
99,249
365,434 94,308
226,277 103,133
409,010 111,402
298,128 141,258
339,934 125,107
319,572 142,245
402,125 124,939
289,485 136,200
245,826 122,856
380,032 109,212
379,524 126,400
376,407 137,031
503,521 128,405
317,917 146,712
642,074 146,413
354,887 152,312
556,004 150,031
515,528 162,285
676,655 194,260
419,096 184,344
213,118 165,819
303,557 154,516
208,369 169,660
156,480 169,316
192,560 157,247
150,116 175,837
185,738 155,308
160,544 163,121
308,547 147,305
225,244 154,784
462,586 129,905
348,992 133,332
286,833 127,610
492,904
117,787
313,459 116,804
257,090 107,757
481,870 100,373
297,457 121,336
476,542 118,862
339,432 118,730
429,249
98,131

Coffee Robusta NYSELIFFE London futures

Closing
price
(USD/kg)
2.08
1.76
1.97
1.73
1.60
1.74
1.70
1.30
1.29
1.32
1.24
1.30
1.29
1.32
1.39
1.38
1.37
1.47
1.30
1.49
1.42
1.52
1.54
1.72
1.52
1.75
1.56
1.99
2.28
2.32
2.40
2.21
2.22
2.23
2.72
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Volume
in lots^

Open
interest in
lots^^

236,985
99,279
240,130 89,049
321,834
92,439
177,568 105,293
291,040
95,397
158,736
94,111
343,878
85,950
175,489 89,090
232,327
87,085
206,560 93,948
246,096
86,223
155,347
89,503
250,540
82,941
151,840 100,138
315,633
81,798
156,685
91,233
257,616 88,340
157,040
91,373
303,912 100,564
109,880 95,899
249,928 84,093
144,470 80,239
239,134
76,791
119,578
73,992
103,124
70,433
48,169
37,971
37,083
20,735
12,300
9,340
1,851
2,140
1,115
1,132
413
355
N/A
25
10
25
5
20
16
3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Note: N/T: Not Traded, N/A-Not Available, WPI - Wholesale Price Index; Future prices are for near month continuos futures contract.
Source: Agmarknet; Ministry of Commerce and Industry; Exchanges' websites

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