Simulating land use changes in an urbanising area in Malaysia

An application of the CLUE-S model in the Selangor river basin

Wytse Engelsman March 2002

Simulating land use changes in an urbanising area in Malaysia

An application of the CLUE-S model in the Selangor river basin

Name: Wytse Engelsman Reg nr: 76-08-24-226-110 Date: March 2002 Subject code: J050-707

Supervisors in The Netherlands: Dr. Ir. Peter Verburg Dr. Ir. Tom Veldkamp

Supervisor in Malaysia: Prof. Dr. Sharifah Mastura S.A.

Department of Environmental Sciences Laboratory of Soil Science and Geology Wageningen University The Netherlands

Acknowledgements
This report was written in the scope of a 21 credit thesis research. This research was done over a period of almost seven months. Three and a half month of this period I worked at the Earth Observation Centre of University Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM). The rest of the time I spend at the Laboratory of soil Science and Geology from the Wageningen University. This period was a good experience on very different points. I did not only gain some research experience but I also had the chance to live in a country that was new to me. I want to thank my direct supervisor Peter Verburg for his continuous support and time and for the helpful tips that came by e-mail during my period in Malaysia. I also want to thank Tom Veldkamp for his background supervision. In Malaysia I want to thank Dr. Sharifah Mastura for hosting me at the Earth Observation Centre and providing me all the help I needed. Finally I want to thank my friends at the GISlab at UKM. Lam, Lee, Suk Mei, Kak Izan, Rosnah, Ta Wee and Mokhtar thanks for your nice support and help during the long hours behind the computer. Wytse Engelsman, Wageningen, March 7 2002
th

Abstract
This thesis research describes the simulation of near future land use changes in the Selangor river basin in Malaysia. For simulating the land use changes the CLUE-S model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) is used. The main objectives of this research are to apply the CLUE-S model to a new study area, the Selangor river basin, and describe the development of urban land use in this river basin. The CLUE-S model consists out of a demand module, a module for spatial analysis, and decision rules that influence a spatially explicit allocation module. In the demand module the demands for specified land use types are calculated for a given time frame, with time steps of one year. In this demand module different scenarios of land use change at the regional level can be formulated. The spatial analysis is based on a statistical analysis of driving factors from socio-economic and bio-physical dimensions of land use change. The decision rules represent policy and land use management concerning the dynamics of the land use types and protection status. The CLUE-S model is successfully implemented for the Selangor river basin. Three different simulations were made. The first was made with a scenario that was created by a trend extrapolation and without any restriction of conversion. Secondly a simulation was made with the same demand scenario but with forest areas that were protected to conversion. Finally a simulation with a forest preservation scenario and restriction of conversion was made. General land cover changes resulting from the output of the simulations are: the allocation of urbanisation in the central part of the study area and the expansion of oil palm plantations in the western part of the area. A striking difference between the simulations with and without forest protection is the preservation of forest. Without any restriction of conversion, no protection of forest, almost all of the forest will disappear. Uncertainties in the output of the simulations are caused by the selected driving factors and the stabilities of the land use types. In this research the selection of drivers is commonly based on the results of previous research and expert knowledge. Social driving factors are in minority. Only population density

and agricultural labour force represent the social driving factors of land use change. Only these two driving factors are used in this model due to a lack of adequate, spatially explicit, socio-economic data. Data of other potential driving factors, for example mean income or education level, were not available The main problem with defining the decision rules concerning the dynamics of land use is the dependence on expert knowledge. When there is no possibility of calibrating the model due to lack of historic data, expert knowledge is needed to approximate these settings. In this study we calibrated these settings by performing multiple runs and selecting the most reliable settings based on our knowledge of the dynamics in the study area. With this method the relative order of the land use types, from stable to dynamic, was found. The results of the analysis with the CLUE-S model can be used by land use planners to decide about the desired land use planning.

Table of contents
Acknowledgements Abstract Table of contents List of figures and tables 1 Introduction. 9 1.1 Background... 9 1.2 Objectives..11 2 Models in land use planning. 12 3 Data and methods 15 3.1 Introduction.. 15 3.2 Location 15 3.3 Data.. 17 3.3.1 Description of land use 17 3.3.2 Description of driving factors.. 20 3.4 Methods 26 3.4.1 Model description. 26 3.4.1.1 Model structure.. 26 3.4.1.2 Demand.. 27 3.4.1.3 Statistical analysis. 27 3.4.1.4 Decision rules 27 3.4.1.5 Allocation 28 3.4.2 Statistical analysis.. 29 4 Results. 32 4.1 Statistical analysis. 32 4.1.1 Regression models. 32 4.1.2 Discussion of regression results 33

4.2 Model settings. 37 4.2.1 Regression results.. 37 4.2.2 Demand scenarios37 4.2.3 Decision rules40 4.3 Simulation results... 41 4.3.1 Simulation 1.. 42 4.3.2 Simulation 2.. 43 4.3.3 Simulation 3.. 43 4.3.4 Comparison.. 44 5 Discussion and conclusions... 46 5.1 Discussion... 46 5.1.1 Model settings... 46 5.1.2 CLUE-S model structure.. 48 5.1.3 Calibration.. 49 5.1.4 Urban development.. 51 5.1.5 Relevance.. 51 5.2 Conclusions. 52 References.. 53 Annexes .. 55 Annex A: Maps of driving factors.. 56 Annex B: Probability maps. 61 Annex C: A step by step manual for the CLUE-S model... 64 Annex D: CD-ROM.. 67

List of figures and tables

Figures:
Figure 1: Structure of working methods Figure 2: Peninsular Malaysia Figure 3: The state of Selangor with delineation of the river basin Figure 4: Scrub and grassland Figure 5: New housing area Figure 6: Land use 1999 Figure 7: The CLUE-S model structure Figure 8: ROC graph, 0.970 area under the curve (forest) Figure 9: Forest preservation scenario Figure 10: Forest reserves Figure 11: Land use 1999 Figure 12: Simulated land use 2014 Figure 13: Locations of change in simulation 1 Figure 14: Land use 1999 Figure 15: Simulated land use 2006 Figure 16: Land use 1999 Figure 17: Simulated land use 2014 Figure 18: Locations of change in simulation 3 Figure 19: Changes in simulation 1 Figure 20: Changes in simulation 3 Figure 21: Simulated land use 2014 without change matrix Figure 22: Simulated land use 2014 with change matrix

Tables:
Table 1: Area of land use types Table 2: Driving factors of land use change in the Selangor river basin Table 3: Two-by-two contingency table (Source: Swets, 1988) Table 4: ExponHQW -values for logistic regression for the different land use types Table 5: Relatively influence of the driving factors for urban land use 7DEOH  -values for logistic regression for the different land use types Table 7: Yearly increase of area for every land use type between 90 and 99 Table 8: Stability settings

1 Introduction
1.1 Background
The problem Changes in land use hold major implications for natural resources, productivity and rural living conditions. The changes in the complex social and natural system are often caused by activities of individuals. These changes in land use are made to meet locally defined needs. All these local activities can have regional or global impact because of their influence on biodiversity, water and radiation budgets, trace gas emission and other processes (Turner II et al. 1990; Riebsame et al. 1994). On a local scale, changes in land use directly influence our lives through our perception of the landscape and living environment (Palang et al. 2000). The CLUE model To preserve or create a healthy living environment careful land use planning is more and more important. Models of land use change can be very useful for planning, they can help to understand the complex system of socio-economic and biophysical factors. They also can help to understand the causes and the consequences of changes in land use. Another very useful characteristic of models is the ability of simulating possible future developments in the land use system. These simulations expose unwanted developments in the land use system enabling to anticipate on these developments through land use planning. The simulation of future changes in land use can also be used for predicting the effects of changes in land use. To understand and predict the impact of biophysical and socio-economical forces that drive land use change, an empirical multi-scale land use change model was developed. The CLUE (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model simulates recent and future changes in land use patterns. CLUE is capable of identifying areas that have high probabilities for future changes in land use, so called hot-spots of land use change. The identification of hot-spots is important in focussing research and land use planning. The CLUE model for smaller regions: CLUE-S Over the last 7 years, the CLUE modelling approach has been applied in a couple of regions. These applications were all on the scale of entire countries.

Land use change modelling is of the same relevance for smaller regions. At this scale level, e.g. a small administrative unit or watershed, the land use system is directly influenced by the decisions made by stakeholders. The understanding of the system is an important part of land use planning so there is a need for a tool to understand the system the stakeholders are deciding about. For the modelling of smaller regions there is a need of high resolution simulation results. Therefore, the CLUE-S model (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) was developed. In the CLUE-S model the spatial resolution of the grid is high compared to the countrywide applications of the CLUE model. The main difference is the representation of the data. In the CLUE-S model it is possible to represent land use by the dominant land use type in the grid cell. For the coarse resolution used in the countrywide analysis by CLUE the relative cover percentages of the different land use types represent land use in one grid cell. A direct result of the coarse grid size is that they combine several land use types within the same unit of observation. This project: CLUE-S applied to the Selangor river basin area In this student research project the CLUE-S model is applied to a new study area, the Selangor river basin. The model is used to understand the process of land use change in this area. It is expected that this research will give more insight into the driving factors of the land use change process and that the model can be used to forecast future dynamics in land use. Up till now, the CLUE-S model has only been applied once (Soepboer, 2001). Therefore, the application in the Selangor river basin will also be used to test the CLUE-S model. The objective of testing the model is to recover its strengths and weaknesses. With the strengths and weaknesses of the model in mind its possible to recommend improvements for further development of the model. To improve a model its important to test if its acting the way you supposed it to do. Which part of the model isnt working and why isnt it? Which adaptations have to be made to improve the efficacy of the model? Another important objective is to find out what sort of land use changes the model is suited for. Urbanisation is a very specific process and not tested earlier with the CLUE model. In this study the urbanisation process will be discussed in more detail.

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1.2 Objectives
Apply the CLUE-S model to the Selangor River basin, Malaysia.

Increase understanding of the process of land use change in the study area. What are the driving factors and what are the restrictions?

Test the performance of the CLUE-S model and propose improvements

Describe the development of urban land use in the Selangor river basin. What are the drivers of urban development and where are new urban developments to be expected.

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2 Models in land use planning

To preserve or create a healthy living environment careful land use planning is more and more important. Models of land use change can be important tools to help land use planning. With the use of models in land use planning it is possible to make more informed land use decisions. This decision support function is only one of the functions that a land use model can fulfil. In total five different uses for models in land use planning are defined (Briassoulis, 2000): Decision support Explanation Prediction Impact assessment Prescription

These five different uses of models in the land use planning will be described in detail in the five next paragraphs. Decision support A first, general use of models in the land use planning is to provide decision support. Models can be used to give more insight into the problems in land use planning. With the models situations can be evaluated to help land use planners making better decisions. With the use of models for decision support in land use planning a more scientific based choice can be made. This output of the models can give support next to the planning theories. In general two different types of land use change models can be distinguished that contribute to decision making in land use planning, descriptive models and prescriptive models. Descriptive models simulate realistic changes in land use under specified conditions defined in a scenario. These models are able to make a yearly prediction up to 20 to 30 years into the future. The CLUE-S model is such a descriptive model. Land use planners can use the results of the simulations for assessment of consequences of proposed policy or autonomous development.

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Prescriptive models are used in situations were the objectives of a policy are known in advance. These models simulate, on basis of the given objectives, land use configurations that best match these objectives. These models are also known as optimisation models. The results of both models can be used to inform land use planners. Comparing the outcomes of these two model types it is possible to find out if policies for which the effect on land use is simulated in the descriptive model matches with the simulated land use configuration in the prescriptive model. In most cases deviation between the results will occur. The locations where deviation between the two results is found, can be analysed. With this analysis new policy can be developed for the study area. A new run of the models, that contain this new policy, can be used to test if the new policy will lead to the desired land use configuration. This iterative process can continue until policies are designed that fit the objectives of land use planning. Another advantage of using both types of models is the possibility to assess to what extent actual land use matches with the desired, optimal land use configuration. Out of this analysis new policies can be developed to reach the desired land use configuration. Explanation Models can be used for the explanation of relationships between driving factors and land use change. The models can give insight in which drivers are important for a certain land use planning problem. With this use of a model its possible to simplify the complex social and natural system and make scientifically based decisions on planned changes in land use. Prediction Another type of model use is prediction of land use changes. These descriptive models simulate realistic changes in land use under a set of conditions specified in a scenario. Most of the descriptive models are able to make a yearly prediction up to 20 or 30 years into the future. The models are capable to identify areas that have high probabilities for future changes in land use, so called hot-spots of land use change. The identification of hot-spots is important because research can focus in more detail on these locations to determine the processes giving rise to the changes and assess the impact. Land use planners can decide if the locations and the rate of change of these hot-spots are desirable. If not, alternative policies can be proposed that reduce the forecasted changes in these hot-spots.

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With the descriptive models different scenarios can be calculated. Defining the dynamics of the driving factors or including a new driving factor creates these scenarios. For each scenario the configuration of the future land use is calculated. Decision-makers can use this method to evaluate the different probable scenarios. Impact assessment Models can play an important role in impact assessment of past or future land use changes. There are two different ways in which models can be used for impact assessment. On the one hand its possible to evaluate the impact of a planned land use change. A scenario of a future change is simulated by a model with the objective to find the impact on the land use configuration. On the other hand, its possible to assess the impact of a land use change on the environment and the social and economical system, for example land degradation, desertification or unemployment. Prescribe optimum Prescriptive models are also known as normative, operations research or optimisation models. These models operate on basis of known objectives. These prescriptive models simulate the land use configuration that matches best with the selected objectives. With prescriptive models the requirements of different sectors are balanced. Due to this method its necessary to indicate the relative importance of every formulated objective. A difference in importance of the objectives will lead to different outcome of the prediction of the land use configuration. This can be made more explicitly by presenting the spatial claims of the different sectors. The results of the analysis can be used by land use planners to decide about the desired land use planning. These results show the claim different sectors have on the land use. With these claims in mind land use planners can decide about the final land use configuration.

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3 Data and methods

3.1 Introduction
Data collection and processing

Statistical Analysis

Model configuration

Scenarios

Simulation

Calibration

Adjustments to model

Figure 1: Structure of working methods

In this chapter the working method (figure 1) and the data collection is discussed. At first the study area is presented. Secondly, the data collection and processing is described. The land use types and the selection and processing of the driving factors are described in paragraph 3.3 followed by a detailed description of the followed methodology. The CLUE-S model is explained ( 3.4.1) followed by a description of the statistical analysis that was carried out ( 3.4.2).

3.2 Location
The study area is the Selangor river basin. This river basin is located in the state of Selangor, in the mid-western part of Peninsular Malaysia. Within Selangor state the study area encompasses parts of three districts: Kuala Selangor, Hulu Selangor and Gombak (figure 3).

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In figure 2 the location of the Selangor river basin is indicated with a rectangle in the map of Peninsular Malaysia. Figure 3 shows an enlargement of the rectangle indicated in figure 2. The study area has a surface of 1617 square kilometres and a relatively high population density. The whole area is located in the most densely populated state of Malaysia, Selangor. Urban development is fastly expanding in this part of the country. The development of Kuala Lumpur has spread into the surrounding districts and affects the study area. The study area has a diverse landscape. In the eastern part it is hilly with a lot of forest growing on the hill slopes. The central and the western part of the study area are more or less flat. The major land use here is agriculture and urban area. A lot of oil palm and rubber estates have been established through forest conversion. Currently many of these estates are being converted into urban, residential, recreational and industrial areas. Especially rubber estates are being converted to either urban areas or oil palm estates, due to the decline in world market prices after the introduction of synthetic rubber. A land use type with a long history is tin mining. The English established the tin mines in the end of the 19th century, which spurred the Malaysian economic development. The mining areas are found extensively along larger rivers in the study area. Most of the tin has already been extracted and many mines have ceased production. The basin is chosen as the study area because its vicinity to Kuala Lumpur makes it a target for future development.

Figure 2: Peninsular Malaysia

Figure 3: The state of Selangor with delineation of the river basin

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3.3 Data
3.3.1 Description of land use Eight different land use types are distinguished in this study area. Table 1 shows the area of the land use types. Table 1: Area of land use types Land use type Forest Oil palm Rubber Mixed culture Scrub & grassland Mining Urban Water Area (ha) in 1999 64631 28800 23119 7256 12150 10238 14906 619 Percentage of total (%) 40.0 17.8 14.3 4.5 7.5 6.3 9.2 0.4

Forest Forest is the most frequent land use type with an area coverage of 40 percent. These forests are under high pressure of other land use types that are expanding. There is almost no primary forest left in the study area, all forest is effected by human influence at this time. The forests are mostly situated in the hilly areas in the northern and eastern part of the study area. Oil palm Oil palm is the main agricultural land use type in the study area. Malaysia is one of the world largest palm oil producers and its production is increasing. This increasing palm oil production has its influence on the study area through an increase in the oil palm acreage. The oil palm plantations are rationally shaped. The trees are planted in lines next to each other. The leaves of the trees are used for soil coverage to avoid erosion. Most of the oil palm plantations are situated down stream the Selangor river in the western part of the study area.

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Rubber Rubber is a declining land use type. A lot of the rubber estates are being converted to either urban areas or oil palm estates, due to decline in world market prices after the introduction of synthetic rubber. Especially in the central part of the study area rubber estates are under pressure of the demand for new urban area. The rubber estates are situated in the central and the northern part of the study area. Mixed culture Mixed culture is less common in this area. Only 4.5% of the study area is covered by plantations with mixed culture. The most common crops in these plantations are a mix of fruit plants and trees. Coconut, banana, rambutan and jambu are the most important species. Most of the mixed plantations are found in the centre of the study area. In the area around the mouth of the Selangor river also a group of mixed culture plantations is found. Scrub and grassland 7.5% of the study area is covered by scrub and grassland. These grasslands are left over after the clearance of forest. These cleared areas are not always used to develop agriculture or urban area and so the grasslands remain (figure 4). After a while scrub will grow in the grasslands. Most grassland is found in the central and eastern part of the study area, near to the forests fringe.

Figure 4: Scrub and grassland

Figure 5: New housing area

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Mining The study area has been an important tin mining area. After the governmental take over from the English in the late 19th century a lot of tin mines were established. Almost none of the mining areas are still in use. Most of the tin has already been extracted, so many mines have ceased production. Because of their sandy soil the mining areas are very attractive to urban developers. A large mining area is situated in the mid-western part of the study area. Smaller mining areas are mostly situated along the river in the central part of the area. Urban Urban land use is a fastly expanding land use type. Because of the vicinity of Kuala Lumpur the study area faces a lot of influence from the expanding city. The central part of the study area is located directly north of the border of Kuala Lumpur. Most of the towns in this part are developing new housing areas within short time periods. But not only the existing towns are expanding, also completely new towns are developed (figure 5). Urban concentrations are found in the centre of the study area. In this part a couple of fast expanding towns are situated. At the mouth of the Selangor river another town is situated, Kuala Selangor. Water There is not much open water in the study area. From the land use map two water areas can be distinguished: the mouth of the Selangor river and a dam in the north of the study area. Other parts of the river and small lakes are not indicated on the land use map due to the relatively coarse resolution of this map.

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Land use types

F ore s t O il P alm R u b b er M ix e d c u lture S c ru b & gra s s la n d M in in g U rba n W ate r N o D a ta

Figure 6: Land use 1999 3.3.2 Description of driving factors Changes in land use pattern can be caused by a number of different factors. These factors are called driving factors of land use change. The Earth Observation Centre of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) has a lot of experience with research about land use change. This experience was used to select the driving factors. After studying reports of previous research and discussions with the staff of the Earth Observation Centre, the final selection was made. For the study area in the Selangor river basin 15 driving factors are selected. All driving factor data were derived from a data set that already existed. These data were collected during a previous research about deforestation in the same study area (van Zalinge, 2001). All data were thoroughly checked and updated. The resolution of this data set is a 750-meter grid, so the surface of one grid cell is 0.563 km.

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Table 2: Driving factors of land use change in the Selangor river basin Driving factor Altitude Distance to road Description Altitude in meters above sea level. Distance measured in meters from the middle of a pixel to the nearest road in 1999. Distance to river Distance measured in meters from the middle of a pixel to the nearest river in 1999. Distance to centre of residence Distance to centre of forest Distance measured in meters from the middle of a pixel to the centre of the nearest urban area in 1999. Distance measured in meters from the middle of a pixel to the centre of the nearest forest in 1999. Alluvial Soils Fluvisols Layered Soils Shallow Soils Suitability class 1 Young, fine textured soils. Soils with fluvic properties. Older soils with well defined horizons. Highly erosive soils on steep slopes. Soils with no limitation or one or more minor limitations to crop growth.1 Suitability class 2 Soils with one or more moderate limitations to crop growth. Suitability class 4 Soils with more than one serious limitation to crop growth. Suitability class 5 Soils with at least one very serious limitation to crop growth. Population density Agricultural labour force Altitude For the altitude a digital map of the United States Geological Service was used. This organisation provides altitude maps with a grid size of 1 km. This map, with a large scale, was used because the contour lines that are on the topographical maps are too detailed in comparison with the other data that are used and they were not digitally available. Inhabitants per km2 Agricultural employees per km2

Wong, 1970

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Distance to road The distance to road is calculated from the road map of Selangor. This road map was available in a digital version and was used to clip out the roads of the study area. After importing this road map into ArcView the distance of the middle of every pixel to the nearest road was calculated. For these calculations the calculate distance function of ArcView was used. Distance to river The streams of the Selangor river were also available in a digital format. This digital river map was used as an overlay of a grid map of the study area. The distance of the middle of every pixel to the nearest river was calculated with the calculate distance function in ArcView. Distance to centre of residence The occurrence of urban area is an important driving factor for land use change. Urban area is a fastly expanding land use type in the state of Selangor. It is likely to presume that the borders of these residential areas change a lot in the period of modelling. Because of these presumed changes it is not useful to use the borders of the residential area to base a driving factor on. To tackle this problem a driving factor was created that consists of the distances to the middle of residential areas. The middle points of residential areas are located using the land use map, the satellite image of 1999 and the topographic map. Out of these maps co-ordinates of the centres of the residential areas were located. These co-ordinates were added into a text file. This text file was converted into a shape file with the use of ArcInfo. The topographic map was used to find the attribute names of the point theme that was created. With the 'calculate distance' function of ArcView the distance of the middle of every pixel to the nearest centre of residence was calculated. Distance to centre of forest The data preparation for the driving factor Distance to forest is almost the same as 'Distance to residential centre'. The borders of the land use type forest are presumed to change very fast also. To handle this problem the distance to the middle of all main forest-polygons has been calculated. These polygons were created by distinguishing all land use types other than forest

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and paved roads. After the polygons were created the middles were saved as a point theme in ArcView. After the delimitation of these polygons centres the distance from the middle of every pixel to the nearest forest centre was calculated with the 'calculate distance' function of ArcView. Soil types To make a digital version of the soil map of the study area a soil map of the Malaysian Environmental Consultants was used. This map, with a scale of 1:500 000, was digitised. This soil map of the study area uses FAO soil units. In the study area there were located four different soil types. These four soil types were apart from each other, used as driving factors. Suitability classes For the creation of a soil suitability map of the study area, the same soil map of the Malaysian Environmental Consultants was used. In the study area four out of the five possible soil suitability classes are present, S1, S2, S4 and S5 (see table 2 for a detailed description of these classes). Population density The most recent, detailed data about population density is the census carried out in 1991. This census contains data on sub-district level. This census data can be considered representative for the year 1990. For the year 1999 there are no such detailed data as for 1990. The total population of 1999 is only available at district level. In order to use a population density map of 1999 on a subdistrict level, a calculation was made. To do this calculation it was assumed that the relative distribution of the population did not change over the years. The outcome of these calculations is the population number of every sub-district in the year 1999. Expressed as a formula:
Sub-district population 1999 = Sub-district population 1991 x District population 1999 District population 1991

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To calculate a difference in population density within a sub-district the total population number and the percentage of urban population was used. The land-use map was reclassed into three types: urban, rural and forest. The reclass of land-use was then overlaid with the sub-district coverage. With this action dependence is created between land use and the population. This method is used because all sub districts have a different value. All cells are recalculated by taking the mean of the surrounded 3x3 cells, so the created dependence is small. The socio-economic tables used a division of urban and rural, but in this study a forest class was incorporated so that the lower population density of forests was captured in the analysis. It is known that there are certain indigenous people living in settlements in the hill forests within the study area. These forests were given 0.5% of the total population while all other forest areas were given 0.2%. The percentage allocated to forest was deducted from the rural and not the urban population. Thus, with the overlay a coverage was created in which the population per polygon could be calculated. When this was done, the population size of each polygon was divided by its specific area to get the desired population density estimate. Because it is supposed that human habituation acts over a larger area a focal function was used to recalculate the existing population density map. This focal function revalues every grid cell by taking the mean of a square consisting out of 3x3 cells (5,06 km2). Agricultural labour force This driving factor is presented as a density map of the number of people that are employed in the agricultural sector. The creation of this driving factor has a lot of similarities with the creation of the driving factor population density. There had been made the same adaptations to get a density map on a sub-district level. The latest detailed data is from the census that was carried out in 1991. The census is representative for the year 1990, so there is 1990 sub-district level data only. For the year 1999 data about the number of agricultural labourers is only available at state level. To create a detailed density map there has to be made a same sort of calculation as did with the population density. To do this calculation it was assumed that the relative distribution of the agricultural labourers did not change over the years.

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Sub-district ALF 1999 = Sub-district ALF 1991 x State ALF 1999 State ALF 1991 ALF = Agricultural labour force (the number of agricultural employees)

To calculate a difference in the density of agricultural labourers within the sub-district the land use map was reclassified. The land use map was divided into rural area and not-rural area. The rural areas contains all the land use types accept forest and urban area. There was assumed that the agricultural labourers dont live and work in forests and in urban areas. Likewise the population density calculations dependence is created. In this case dependence between land use and agricultural labour force is created. However, the created dependence is small all cells are recalculated by taking the mean of the surrounded 3x3 cells. This reclassed land use map was overlaid with the map of the sub-district coverage. With this overlay the sub-districts were divided into rural and no-rural area. After this, the total area of rural polygons in a sub-district was calculated. After knowing the total rural area it was possible to calculate the density of agricultural labourers in the sub-districts. Like we assumed in calculating the population density, the agricultural labourers also act over a larger area. A focal function is used to recalculate the agricultural labour force density. This focal function calculates the mean of a square consisting out of 3x3 grid (5,06 km2).

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3.4 Methods
3.4.1 Model description

3.4.1.1 Model structure The CLUE-S model can be divided into two modules, a non-spatial demand module and a spatially explicit allocation module (figure 7). In the non-spatial demand module the changes in land use are estimated for a series of years at the aggregate level. The spatial allocation module has to translate the changes in demand into changes in land use pattern. For every year of simulation a land use prediction map is created. The allocation module needs decision rules and the results of the statistical analysis as input, indicating the potential locations for conversion.

Spatial module

Non-spatial

Driving factors

Actual land use

Logistic regression

Changes in driving factors

Probabilities for all land use types

Area restriction

Conversion stability factors

Allocation

Demand of all land use types

Figure 7: The CLUE-S model structure

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3.4.1.2 Demand The demand module is a totally separate module from the model. The results of the demand module are used as input for the spatial module of the CLUE-S model. The demand can be determined with different alternative model specifications. These possibilities are ranging from simple trend extrapolation to complex economic models. The choice for one of the models depends on the nature of the major conversions that are taking place. The results of the demand module need to specify the area covered by the different land use types. This has to be created for every year in the simulation. In this study two different demand scenarios are used. The first one is a simple trend scenario, the trend between 1990 and 1999 is extrapolated to the year 2014. The second is a more complex derivation of this first scenario. These two demand scenarios are described in more detail in paragraph 4.2.2. 3.4.1.3 Statistical analysis The relations between land use and its driving factors are evaluated using stepwise logistic regression. Logistic regression is an often used methodology in land use change research (Geoghegan et al. 2001; Serneels & Lambin 2001). This statistical method is used to provide the model response functions for each land use type. Out of the results of the regression, probability maps can be calculated. For every year of the simulation a new probability map is calculated with updated values of the driving factors that are changing in time (e.g. population density). In this study we did not do this since we assumed all drivers to be constant in time. The stepwise procedure is used to help us select the relevant driving factors from a larger set of factors that is assumed to influence the land use pattern. Variables that have no significant contribution to the explanation of the land use pattern are excluded from the final regression equation (Verburg 2001). The statistical analysis is explained in more detail in paragraph 3.4.2. 3.4.1.4 Decision rules Decision rules are used to determine which conversions are allowed. Two different types of decision rules are used in the model. The first type is the stability of a land use type. The second can indicate a certain area as a protected area that is not allowed to change.

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The stability setting is a value between 0 and 1. The value of the stability settings is valid for all cells covered by that land use type. The value of 1 is given to a land use type that is stable. This value, for example, is given to the land use type urban. After the conversion to urban land use it is not likely that this land is changed into another land use type. Land use types with opposite characteristics are given a value of 0. These land use types are very dynamic; when this value is selected for a land use type there are no restrictions to change are considered in the allocation module. There are also a couple of land use types that operate in between these two extremes. This situation is representative for the land use types that are not likely to change after their first establishment. But on the long term, when there is a land use type that is more profitable, the land use will change. The stability settings are based on the knowledge of the experts on the location. The settings can also be tuned during the calibration of the model. The second decision rule enables the user to protect a certain area from change. This area restriction is used for example to prevent the model from converting protected forest reserves into another land use type. 3.4.1.5 Allocation In the allocation module the demand of the different land use types is allocated. allocation procedure follows 5 steps (Verburg et al, 2001) 1. In this first step the number of grid cells that are taken into account in the allocation is determined. The grid cells that are either part of a protected area or not allowed to change for another reason are excluded from further calculations. 2. For all grid cells i the total probability (TPROPi,u)is calculated for each of the land use types u. The total probability is calculated according to the following equation: TPROPi,u = Pi,u + ELASu + ITERu Where ITERu is an iteration variable that is specific to the land use. ELASu is the relative elasticity for change specified in the decision rules and is only given a value if grid cell i is already under land use type u in the year considered. This

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3. A preliminary allocation is made with an equal iteration variable for each land use type. In this step the land use type with the highest probability is allocated in the considered grid cell. 4. The total allocated area of the different land use types is now compared to the demand. If the number of allocated grid cells of a certain land use type is too high, the iteration variable is decreased. If the number of allocated grid cells is too low compared to the demand, the iteration variable is increased. 5. The steps 2 to 4 are repeated until the allocated land use matches with the demand. When the allocation matches the demand the final result is saved. Now the model can proceed to the next time step (usually years). 3.4.2 Statistical Analysis Empirically defined relationships are used as input for the CLUE-S model. Binomial logistics regression is used to define the relationships between the land use types and its driving factors. It calculates the occurrence of an event, using the independent variables as predictor values (Garson, 2001). This method is used when a dependent is a dichotomy (0 or 1) and the independents are continuous variables or categorical variables (Garson, 2001). Logistic regression equation; P Log (----- 1-P

0  1X1i  2X2i..nXn

P = Probability of the occurrence of the land use type

n = Regression values, output of the regression model

Xn = Driving factors

Logistic regression produces odds ratios associated with each predictor value. These ratios are the exponents of the logit coefficient and therefore also called the exponent B (Exp (B)). The odds of an event is defined as the probability of the event occurring divided by the probability of the event not occurring. The odds ratio for a predictor tells the relative amount by which the odds of the outcome increase (odds ratio > 1) or decrease (odds ratio < 1) when the value of the predictor value is increased by 1 unit.

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Because all independents have different units it is not easy to find the most important variable in the model. If categorical values (0 or 1) change with 1 unit the maximum change is taken. But if a continuous variable changes 1 unit, only a small percentage of the possible change has happened. For instance the altitude: if the altitude changes with 1 unit (1 meter) only a small part of the total possible 1400 meters change is taken. Because of the impossibility to compare the different Exp (B) of the driving factors with each other, the relatively influence can be calculated. This is called the odds max ratio. This odds max ratio is calculated by taking the Exp (B) of the non-categorical driving factors and their total range.

Relative influence = Exp (B * range) Relative influence = -1/ Exp (B * range)

for B > 1 for B < 1

The Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC)-method Is a useful way to evaluate the performance of the regression model (Swets, 1988; Pontius and Schneider, 2001). The ROC is a method based on the true positive and the false positive proportions (table 3). The event in the table is for example the occurrence of a certain land use type. The occurrence of a certain land use type (event) is considered positive and the not-occurrence negative. The diagnosis is the prediction thats made about the occurrence Table 3: Two-by-two contingency table (Source: Swets, 1988)
Event Diagnosis Positive Negative

Positive True-positive False-negative

A+C A

Negative False-positive True-negative

B +D B A +B

C +D

There are two ways that an event, positive or negative, can agree with the prediction. The first is the true-positive (A) and the second the true-negative (D). The cells B and C are the ways in which the actual event and the diagnosis can disagree. This is the false positive (B) and the false-negative (D). To calculate the ROC-curve the true-positive proportion (A/A+C) and the false-positive proportion (B/B+D) are used. The accuracy of the model is measured in

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surface beneath the ROC-curve (figure 8). The values differ from 0.5 to 1, with 0.5 (true-and false positive proportions are equal) if the model does not predict the changes any better than a random approach. If the value is 1 (the true-positive proportion is 1, false positive proportion is 0) the discrimination perfect. The major advantage of this approach is that models predicting the same dependent but with different drivers can be compared. Also it provides a measurement for the comparison of models predicting different dependants (Swets, 1988).

1.00

.75

True-positive proportion, A/(A+C)

.50

.25

0.00 0.00

.25

.50

.75

1.00

False-positive proportion, B/(B+D)

Figure 8: ROC graph, 0.970 area under the curve (forest)

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4 Results
4.1 Statistical analysis
4.1.1 Regression models Logistic regression is used to unravel the relations between land use and its driving factors for the Selangor river basin data set. Regressions are made for seven of the land use types separately. No regressions were made for the land use type water. The location of water was assumed to be stable during the simulation. In this regression model land use types are the dependent variables. The selected driving factors of land use change are used as predictor variables. To create the final regression model the most significant variables from the data set are selected. With the settings of the entry and removal values the variables with a relatively high significance are removed from the model. The entry and removal values used in this case are set on 0.01 and 0.05. This means that only the most significant variables enter the model. To select these significant variables a stepwise forward conditional method is used. This method means that in every step the most significant variable enters the model until the next variable isnt significant enough. The results of the logistic regression were evaluated with the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) -method (statistical analysis, 3.4.2). The goodness is indicated with a value between 0.5 and 1. The results of this regression model are shown in table 5. The land use types Scrub and Grassland (0.75) and Mixed culture (0.77) have a relatively low accuracy. These relatively low values of the accuracy can be explained by the dynamic character of these two land use types. This dynamic character means that it is not unlikely that these land use types are converted into an other land use type soon after its initial conversion. Because of these dynamics its hard to allocate the changes in the land use types. The exponent B (Exp (B)), is calculated to show whether a probability of a certain land use is increasing (Exp (B)>1) or decreasing (Exp (B)<1) if the variable is increased with 1 unit. A value of 1 leaves the odds unchanged. Because of the impossibility to compare the different Exp (B) values of the driving factors, the relatively influence can be calculated (see statistical analysis, 3.4.2).

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4.1.2 Discussion of regression results

7DEOH  ([SRQHQW -values for logistic regression for the different land use types
Driving Factor Forest Oil palm Rubber Mixed culture Altitude (m) Dis2road (m) Dis2river (m) Dis2resid_cntr (m) Dis2forest_cntr (m) Alluvialsoils (0,1) Fluvisols (0,1) Layered soils (0,1) Shallow soils (0,1) Suitclass 1 (0,1) Suitclass 2 (0,1) Suitclass 4 (0,1) Suitclass 5 (0,1) Popdens (number of people) Agric_lab_force (number of people) Constant Accuracy (ROC) 0.6281* 6.5828* 0.970 1.1942* 0.0981* 0.907 1.2344* 0.0411* 0.836 1.2009* 0.0254* 0.773 1.1861* 0.1289* 0.753 0.0189* 0.866 0.6545* 1.1207+ 0.905 0.9843* 0.9947** 1.0041* 1.0030* 1.0003* 1.0001* 0.9995* 0.2331* 2.5418* 0.9785* 0.9997* 1.0001* 1.0002* 4.6351* 0.2462* 0.9974* 1.0002* 0.0679* 0.4569* 1.9889* 0.9997** 4.4376* 0.4686** Scrub & grassland 0.9997* 0.9996** 0.1811* 1.0004* 0.0019* 9.5411* 11.7879* 0.9966* 0.9996** 0.9992* 1.0002* 3.4000* 6.1713* 0.4072* Mining Urban

* significant at <0.001 ** significant at <0.01 *** significant at <0.05 + significant at >0.05 The land use type forest has a positive relationship with the variables Distance to road and Distance to residential centre. This means that if the distance to roads and residential centres increase its more likely that forest is found. The inverse of this interpretation is that if the distance to the road or residential centre decreases its more unlikely that forest will cover the area. With the soil type shallow soils forest has a clear positive correlation. The area where shallow soils are situated is almost totally covered by forest. Shallow soils are mostly found in steep sloping terrain and are not suitable for other land uses. The land use type Oil palm has a clear negative correlation with Altitude and the soil with one very serious limitation to crop growth (suitability class 5). The areas on a higher altitude almost all have a lot of soils with the suitability class 5. These areas are mostly situated in the

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eastern part of the study area. The oil palm plantations are commonly situated in the west on soils with less limitation to crop growth. A positive correlation is found between oil palm and the soil type Alluvial soils and Agricultural labour force. The Alluvial soils are found in the western part of the study area mostly covered by oil palm. The positive correlation with Agricultural labour force can be explained as an obvious relationship; if there are more agricultural workers in the area its easier to run an oil palm plantation then if they are not. Such a result always raises a chicken-or-egg question: is it the labour availability that causes the establishment of an oil palm plantation or is it the oil palm plantation that makes people move into the area? The most striking correlation between the driving factors and the land use type rubber is the negative correlation with Alluvial soils and Fluvisols. Almost all rubber plantations are situated on Layered soils, older soils with well defined horizons. Rubber has a positive correlation with moderately suitable soils (suitability class 2) and with Agricultural labour force. Most of the soils with suitability class 2 are covered by forest, oil palm and mixed culture. The land use type Mixed culture has a negative correlation with the driving factor Distance to road. The mixed culture plantations need a road near by. In the study area most of the mixed culture plantations are located in areas with a dense road network. Another correlation worth mentioning is the one with the soil type Fluvisols. This is a positive correlation, which means that mixed culture plantations prefer these soils. In the study area only a small part of the mixed culture plantations are situated on the fluvisols. Rubber and oil palm are other land use types that are situated on the fluvisols. These two land use type have a more competitive position compared with the mixed culture. The Scrub and Grasslands have a negative correlation with the driving factors Distance to road and Distance to river. An explanation for this fact is that grassland occurs after the clearance of forest. The forest near to the roads and rivers is more sensitive for being cut than forest further away from a road or river. So the area along roads and rivers are more likely to be converted into scrub and grassland than other areas. The most striking correlation between the land use type Mining and its driving factors is the negative correlation with the soil type Shallow soils. The shallow soils have the largest

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relative influence of all the driving factors. The shallow soils are located in the eastern part of the study area and they are mostly covered by forest. There are no shallow soils in the study area that are covered by a mining area. The correlation between shallow soils and mining is probably caused by the geology. Its more likely that the location of mining is explained by the geology than by the other drivers of land use change. The shallow soils in the study area are located in the mountainous area. Probably the geology of these mountainous areas does not match with the occurrence of tin (see discussion 5.1.3).

While urban development is fastly expanding and it has a major impact on the study area it is described in more detail. The allocation of these new urban developments are influenced by nine of the selected driving factors (table 4). The driving factor with the largest influence is Distance to residential centre (table 5). This driving factor has a negative correlation with the urban land use. This means that if the distance to the residential centre is increasing it is more unlikely that this area will be covered by urban. Table 5: Relatively influence of the driving factors for urban land use
Driving Factor Altitude (m) Dis2road (m) Dis2resid_cntr (m) Dis2forest_cntr (m) Fluvisols (0,1) Layered soils (0,1) Suitclass 2 (0,1) Popdens (number of people) Agric_lab_force (number of people) 0.6545* -247.3 1.0041* 7.0 Exp (B) 0.9966* 0.9996** 0.9992* 1.0002* 3.4000* 6.1713* 0.4072* Relative influence -286.5 -28.6 -1,359,190 13.8 3.4 6.2 -2.5

* significant at <0.001 ** significant at <0.01 The driving factor Altitude is the second important driving factor; it has a negative correlation with the land use type urban. This means that the urban development not prefers a hilly area

35

but a more flat area. This negative correlation means that if the altitude is rising its more unlikely that urban development will be located in this area. The third driving factor is the Agricultural labour force. This factors also holds a negative correlation with the land use type urban. Because agriculture and urban are mostly conflicting land use types this negative correlation is understandable. The driving factor Distance to forest centre holds a positive correlation with the land use type urban. This can be explained by the conflicting status of these two land use types. Near to urban area forest are under high pressure. Most of the new development will occur on the borders of existing urban areas. Forest is cleared to create space for these new developments. So the positive correlation means that if the forest is further away its more likely that the area is covered by urban. A not very surprising outcome is the positive correlation between urban land use and the population density. Although the relative influence is not that big, it is one of the most obvious relationships. If the population density of an area is high its obvious that this area will be covered by urban. Also in this situation the chicken-or-egg question can be mentioned. Is it the presence of people that causes the development of new urban area or is the existence of urban area that makes people move into the area? The driving factors related to the soil conditions do not have a large influence on the pattern of urban area. Apparently urban development is not soil type specific. Most likely the soil types prevalent in the area do not pose restrictions to urban development.

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4.2 Model settings

4.2.1 Regression results Table 6 shows the -values resulting from the regression. These are the numbers that are used as input for CLUE-S.

7DEOH  -values for logistic regression for the different land use types
Driving Factor Altitude (m) Dis2road (m) Dis2river (m) Dis2resid_cntr (m) Dis2forest_cntr (m) Alluvialsoils (0,1) Fluvisols (0,1) Layered soils (0,1) Shallow soils (0,1) Suitclass 1 (0,1) Suitclass 2 (0,1) Suitclass 4 (0,1) Suitclass 5 (0,1) Popdens (number of people) Agric_lab_force (number of people) Constant Accuracy (ROC) Forest 0.0030* 0.0003* 0.0001* -0.0005* -1.4564* 0.9329* -0.0158* -0.4650* 1.8845* 0.970 Oil palm -0.0217* -0.0003* 0.0001* 0.0002* 1.5337* -1.4017* 0.1775* -2.3222* 0.907 Rubber -0.0026* 0.0002* -2.6890* -0.7834* 0.6876* 0.2105* -3.1912* 0.836 Mixed culture -0.0003** 1.4901* -0.7580** 0.1831* -3.6738* 0.773 Scrub & grassland -0.0003* -0.0004** -1.7086* -0.0053** 0.1707* -2.0487* 0.753 Mining 0.0004* -6.2401* 2.2556* 2.4671* -3.9674* 0.866 Urban -0.0034* -0.0004** -0.0008* 0.0002* 1.2238* 1.8199* -0.8984* 0.0041* -0.4239* 0.1140+ 0.905

* significant at <0.001 ** significant at <0.01 *** significant at <0.05 + significant at >0.05 4.2.2 Demand scenarios Land use changes are simulated for two different demand scenarios: a baseline scenario and a scenario called scenario 1. Trend-scenario The first demand scenario is a so-called baseline scenario. This demand is a linear extension of the developments between 1990 and 1999. In this period there was a lot of development in Malaysia. Especially the increase of residential area was enormous.

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Table 7: Yearly increase of area for every land use type between 90 and 99
Land use type Forest Oil palm Rubber Mixed culture Scrub & grassland Mining Urban Water Area (ha) in 1999 64631 28800 23119 7256 12150 10238 14906 619 Increase per year (ha) -1562,6 693,6 -987.7 -43,8 881,5 -312,4 1331,4 0.0

For this scenario, in the next 10 to 20 years developments are expected to occur at the same speed as they did between 1990 and 1999. This expectation is based on the population scenarios that the Department of Statistics Malaysia produced. This population scenario expects an annual population growth of 2,6% in the next 20 years. That is the same percentage as in the period between 1990 and 1999. The same growth of the population makes it likely that the development of new residential areas will proceed. The developments in other land use are assumed to be the same as in the years between 1990 and 1999. Another assumption that was made is that the area of water does not change over simulated years. This assumption was made because of the fact that there are no plans to create more water reservoirs in the study area. Forest preservation scenario This scenario is made because of the existence of forest reserves. In the study area a large part of the forest is protected as a reserve. This means that the decline of forests that enacted between 1990 and 1999 can not be proceeded. There is not enough unprotected forest left to clear as much as in the last decade. In this scenario it is assumed that the forest reserves are respected and will not be cancelled in the period of simulation. Compared to the baseline scenario a couple of differences exist: in the first place there is made an assumption about the increase of residential area. Because of the limited space that is left for new developments the yearly increase is less than in the period between 1990 and 1999. But the development of new residential area is still the major activity in the study area.

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70000 60000 50000 Hectares 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13

Forest Oil palm Rubber Mixed culture Scrub & grassland Mining Urban Water

Years

Figure 9: Forest preservation scenario

In 1999 the protected forests are just a part of the total forest area. For the first five years of simulation the decline rate of forest will be the same as in the previous decade. But in the last ten years of simulation forest decline will be less every year. For the last year of simulation it is assumed that no further decline of forested areas occurs. The land use types grassland and mining will disappear for a large part to make place for new residential developments. Almost all of the mining areas are no longer in use. Most of the tin has already been extracted so many mines have ceased production. Because of their sandy soils the mining areas are very attractive to urban developers. Therefor we assume in this scenario that the mining area is decreasing. There is a lot of grassland in the study area. These grasslands appear after the land is cleared. The forest is cut for two reasons: (1) to build houses and (2) the need for timber. Most of the grassland area will be converted into residential areas and there is no development of new grassland because there is not enough unprotected forest left to cut.

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4.2.3 Decision rules Stability settings Table 8 shows the values used as default settings in this study. Table 8: Stability settings
Land use type Forest Oil palm Rubber Mixed culture Scrub & grassland Mining Urban Water Stability 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 1 1 1

Four of the land use types are estimated as very stable, forest, mining, urban and water. This means that unless a decrease in area demand for these land use types occurs the areas covered by this land use are no longer evaluated for potential land use changes (Verburg, 2001). Urban is a very stable and fast expanding land use type. For urban land use its very unlikely that it is converted into another land use type after its first converted to urban. Oil palm and rubber are not totally stable because its not unlikely that a plantation is converted into another land use type if that is more profitable. Another reason for the stability is the high costs to establish a new rubber or oil palm plantation. Due to this high costs it unlikely that plantation shift location very fast. The land use types mixed culture and scrub and grassland are relatively unstable. The land use type scrub and grassland is the most unstable land use type in the study area. This land use type appears after forest is cleared for the need of timber or to create an area for future urban development. Urban development and the establishment of new oil palm plantations are developments that are at the expense of scrub and grassland.

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Area restriction The state of Selangor contains a lot of protected forest reserves (figure 10). A couple of these reserves are situated within the study area. Because the forest in these reserves is protected, the model setting is configured such that its not allowed to change in these areas. To create an area restriction file for the model a map of the forest reserves was used. The Malaysian forestry department provided this map. To create a forest reserve map of the study area it was clipped out of the map of Selangor.

Forest reserves

Figure 10: Forest reserves

4.3 Simulation results

The model has been used to make a prediction of land use changes for 15 years, from 1999 to 2014. In this study three different simulations were made with the model. For these simulations two different demand scenarios and an optional area restriction file are used. In the first run the trend scenario (table 7) is used to predict land use changes. In the second run an area restriction file is added to the model. This area restriction file indicates the location of forest reserves, leading to the protection of forest in these areas. The third simulation is made with these area restrictions and the second demand scenario. This second demand scenario is derived from the trend scenario. However, now the trend in the scenario is adjusted for the assumed forest protection in the area (figure 9).

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4.3.1 Simulation 1 (Trend-scenario) The land use pattern in 1999 and the predicted pattern for 2014 are shown in figures 11 and 12.

F or es t O il P a lm R ubber M ix e d c u lt. S c ru b & g ra s . M in in g U rb a n W ate r N o D ata

Figure 11: Land use 1999

Figure 12: Simulated land use 2014

The most striking outcome is the concentration of urban development. The urban development is stretched in a band from the southern to the northern part of the study area (figure 12 and 13). The most reasonable explanation for this fact is the distance to existing residential centres. In this urbanising area most of existing urban areas are located.

No change Converted area Area converted into urban Figure 13: Locations of change in simulation 1 The oil palm plantations in the west of the area are expanding. Almost all of the area in the western part of the study area is predicted to be covered by oil palm plantations. There are a couple of roads that lead from the urbanised centre of the study area to destinations more to the eastern part of the study area. Along these roads it is predicted that a lot of forest will be cleared in the next 15 years.

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4.3.2 Simulation 2 In the trend scenario a lot of forest is converted into other land use types. A lot of this converted forest is part of existing forest reserves. In the forest reserves the forest has a protected status, so the forested areas are not allowed to convert into other land use types. To preserve the forest in the protected areas an area restriction (figure 10) was added to the model. The model was run for the trend scenario with the area restriction.

F or es t O il P a lm R ubber M ix e d c u lt. S c ru b & g ra s . M in in g U rb a n W ate r N o D ata

Figure 14: Land use 1999

Figure 15: Simulated land use 2006

A logical outcome of this simulation is that the model is not capable to simulate the land use changes for more than 7 years. After 7 years of simulation the trend demand scenario is conflicting with the area restriction. In the demand the number of forest cells in the 8th year is less then the number of forested cells that is protected. After 7 years of simulation there is not enough forest left to convert into another land use type. Most of the changes in the first 7 years of the simulation are similar with these of the first run of the model. The urban development has taken place in a band trough the centre of the study area and the oil palm plantations did expand in the west. The rubber plantations mostly stay in the centre of the study area. 4.3.3 Simulation 3 In this run the demand scenario is adjusted to the situation with an area restriction added to the model. The demand scenario is made with in mind the possible changes that are left after the area restriction is added to the model. Seeing that the forest reserves have a protected status, this run of the model is the most realistic.

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F o re s t O il P alm R ub b e r M ix e d cu lt. S c ru b & g ra s . M in in g U rb a n W a te r N o D a ta

Figure 16: Land use 1999

Figure 17: Simulated land use 2014

Most of the urban development in the area is situated, likewise the other runs, In a band from south to north through the middle of the study area. The oil palm is increasing a lot in the western part. Because its not possible to convert the forests into oil palm, a lot of new plantations were located in the former mining area. This development is very unlikely because a thick sandy soil layer covers this mining area. This mining area is not very fertile, so it is not plausible that this mining area will be converted into oil palm.

No change Converted area Area converted into urban

Figure 18: Locations of change in simulation 3 4.3.4 Comparison In this paragraph the differences between the two simulations that are made to the year 2014, simulation 1 and 3, are discussed. The demand scenarios can explain the difference in the amount of changed grid cells. In the trend scenario much more changes occur than in the forest preservation scenario. The differences between the urban development in the two simulations are not much. New urban land use is allocated on the same locations. The difference that can be found can mostly be explained by the difference in demand for urban in the two simulations. The most notable difference between the two simulations is the conversion of the former mining area indicated with a rectangle in figure 19 and 20. In the first simulation this area is

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not used to locate other land use types than mining. In the third simulation most of the mining area is converted into another land use type. This can be explained by the use of the area restrictions in the third simulation. Due to these area restrictions the land use conversions are happening in other, less suitable locations in the area. In the first run the mining are in the rectangle isnt used because of a low probability of these cells (see annex B). In the third simulation this area is used because there were no more suitable locations left.

No change Converted area Area converted into urban

Figure 19: Changes in simulation 1

Figure 20: Changes in simulation 3

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5 Discussion and conclusions

5.1 Discussion
5.1.1 Model settings

Demand scenarios With the CLUE-S model different demand scenarios can be evaluated. These scenarios can be formulated in different ways. The most appropriate way to create a demand scenario is with the use of economical models, since the rate of land use change is often directly related to demographic and economic developments. For a first exploration, however, a more simple method was used, a linear extrapolation of past (9 years) land use change trends. Another scenario used in this study is based on expert knowledge. The simulation results of these two scenarios and previous research (Soepboer, 2001) shows that the model is sensitive to small changes in the input of the demand module. Due to this sensitivity it is recommended to perform extensive research to create a reliable demand scenario. It is possible to evaluate a range of plausible options for demand as well as scenarios that can indicate how the land use configuration changes upon a discontinuation of the trends in demand. Driving factors Knowledge of the study area is always essential for the selection of potential driving factors. This selection is commonly based on the results of previous research and expert knowledge. Social factors are in minority in the set of driving factors used in this study. Only population density and agricultural labour force represent the social driving factors of land use change. Only these two driving factors are used in this model due to a lack of data. Data of other potential driving factors, for example mean income or education level, were not available. The data of potential driving factors were only available at state level. The information on state level is not useful because its on different extent than the study area. Potential social driving factors that are not available are the education level of the population and the mean income. In a highly densed populated area as the Selangor river basin it is expected that the education level and mean income have influence on land use distribution. The spatial activities attempted by the population are influenced by these two driving factors. In order to incorporate income and educational level in the model their spatial distribution has to be known.

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Population is an important proxy of land use change in the Selangor river basin similar to many other studies. Population in Malaysia is growing, and likewise it is expected that the population of the river basin will also increase. In this study the population density is implemented as a none updated driving factor for population growth. This assumption is made to compensate for the lack of information about the expected population growth in the study area. The historical population growth rate on state level is available. But this was unsuitable to extrapolate into the future because the development of new urban area is not equally spread over the state of Selangor. Because the study area borders to the city of Kuala Lumpur it is hard to tell if the new development of Kuala Lumpur is located into the study area or on another side of Kuala Lumpur. In this case its recommended to find out were the new development of the Kuala Lumpur are planned. The Malaysian department of statistics calculates the future growth rate on national level. The disadvantage of this number is that it is the mean growth of the total country. The population growth rate of the study area is expected to be much higher than the national growth rate. It is possible to make the population growth a dynamic driving factor by simply extrapolating the population density with the predicted national growth rate. However, in this study we have chosen to set the population density as a stable driving factor because there are too many uncertainties about the spatial distribution of population growth. The use of population density as a dynamic driving factor is a point of discussion. The spatial distribution of the population is directly related to urbanisation, if one can predict the number of people you can predict the place of urbanisation. With data of the dynamics of the population density in the study area it is not necessary anymore to run the CLUE-S model to simulate the development of urban land use. Therefore it is a reasonable option not to use the population density as a dynamic driving factor. To use this method the whole peri-urban area of Kuala Lumpur has to be analysed. In the study of the Selangor river basin the population density is indirectly calculated out the population number of the state of Selangor. This means that it gives only an indication of the population density at the initial year of the simulation. If this indicative number of the population density is extrapolated into the future and used as a dynamic driving factor, the simulation of the urban development is directly influenced by a population number of a low reliability.

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Decision rules In the study area a number of forest reserves can be found. These forest reserves were used as input for the model as restricted areas. The assumption was made that the forest reserves were not allowed to change. Officially the status of the forest reserves is a protected status. These forests are turned into a reserve to preserve them. However, this official status of the forest reserves is a point of discussion. In a highly densed populated area with a lot of new developments, like the Selangor river basin, it is expected that the forest reserves will be under a lot of pressure of other land use types. To what extent this will lead to conversion is not clear at this moment. This application of the CLUE-S model is very sensitive for changes in the stability settings as was found by comparing the output for different settings. A small change in the stability settings can cause large changes in the land use configuration because it causes changes in probabilities of the land use types. The main problem with setting the stability factors is the dependence on expert knowledge. When there is no possibility of calibrating the model due to lack of historic data, expert knowledge is needed to approximate the stability settings. The settings used in this research are based on expert knowledge. After the interpretation of different runs with different stability settings the most reliable settings were used. With this method the relative order of the land use types, from stable to dynamic, can be found. The value of the stabilities can only be found by calibration. The values used in these simulations are still an estimation. 5.1.2 CLUE-S model structure

The complex relation between land use change and its spatial driving factors is analysed by empirical techniques. A logistic regression is used to describe these relationships. The use of empirical derived relationships is sometimes criticised (Briassoulis, 2000). This method allows description of a complex system. With a logistic regression this complex system can be quantified in a fast and reproducible way. A neighbourhood effect is incorporated by the use of the focal function. This was done with the driving factors Population density and Agricultural labour force. With this method the values of the neighbourhood cells are taken into account. The influence of a cell is spread

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over the neighbouring cells. With this method the locally defined driving factors are given a more regional influence. The other input data for the CLUE-S model is on regional scale other than the spatial driving factors. The driving factors are locally defined but the demand and the decision rules are defined on a regional scale, implying that demand and decision rules have uniform values the whole study area. To gain more effect out of the decision rules it is recommended to apply different stability settings for different regions in the study area. While the pressure on the land use types varies in every region the costs and opportunities for a land use type to move to another location differs per region. For example, a rubber plantation in an area with a lot of urban development is very stable. This means that it is not likely that removed rubber plantations are rebuild on a different location in this region In an area with a lot of scrub and grassland and no plans for urban development the costs for moving are less then in the first description. Its more likely that the rubber plantations change location in this area so the stability is relatively low compared to the first area. The CLUE-S model is attempting to represent a complex land use cover change system. In spite of this complexity, the model is easy to understand and fast to apply. To use the CLUES model it is important to have a lot of expert knowledge on the study area. It seems to be an easy and fast operating model but you need a lot of knowledge for a proper selection of driving factors, decision rules and for the interpretation of the output. 5.1.3 Calibration

Three different simulations were made with the CLUE-S model. These simulations have a difference in input. But after simulating the land use changes the interpretation indicated that some of these changes were unlikely to happen. With adaptation of the stability and the addition of restricted area the simulations could not be made more realistic. The most striking example of this effect is the change of the mining areas. The mines in the study area have almost ceased production, so it is expected that these areas get another function. The mining areas are perfect for the development of new urban area. But after the simulation, the former mining areas are covered by oil palm. This development of oil palm on these mining areas is unlikely because the soils are not suitable for oil palm. It is expected that the mining areas will be used for urban land use in the future because they represent

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perfect conditions for large scale urban construction and this conversion has already frequently taken place in the Kuala Lumpur region. A solution for this type of problem can be the addition of a new function to CLUE-S that restricts unlikely conversions. With this new function it is possible to restrict a land use type in its allowed conversions. For mining it is possible to add to the model the restriction that it can only change into urban land use and not into other land use types. With a new version of the CLUE-S model (version 1.4) this is possible. In this version a change matrix is included. With this change matrix you can establish for every land use type in which land use types the can change. This means that for the mining area in the Selangor river basin can be set that it only can change into urban area. Figure 22 shows the result of a simulation in which the change matrix is used. Only the land use type mining is restricted in its conversion, mining can only be converted into urban land use. Figure 21 shows the results of the simulation without the use of a change matrix.

F o re s t O il P alm R ub b e r M ix e d cu lt. S c ru b & g ra s . M in in g U rb a n W a te r N o D a ta

Figure 21: Simulated land use 2014 without change matrix

Figure 22: Simulated land use 2014 with change matrix

In the simulations that were made with the CLUE-S model, response functions for mining were used. These response functions are the correlations between mining and its driving factors, which are calculated in the regression analysis. Its well thinkable to have doubts about adding these calculated correlations to the model. These correlations presume that the location of tin mines is specified by the driving factors. Not all driving factors but the geology is the most important factor in locating a tin mine. In future research its recommended to take this fact into account. Giving all cells with mining the same probability can solve this problem. Doing this you overcome the problem that the mining areas on some locations are converted more easily than on other locations.

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5.1.4

Urban development

The demand of urban land use is increasing between 1999 and 2014. This is because of the expectation that a lot of new development will occur in the study area because of its vicinity to the city of Kuala Lumpur. After simulating the land use, the output shows that most of the new urban development is concentrated in a corridor that starts in the south near to the border of Kuala Lumpur and goes to the north east. This corridor of new development is concentrated along the main road through the western part of Peninsular Malaysia. This is the road from Kuala Lumpur to the north, through the cities of Ipoh, Buttersworth, Alor Setar and finally Thailand. The allocation of land use shows that the development in this area is mostly situated on the borders of existing towns. They are created as a new neighbourhood of an existing town. The reason for this allocation is the high probability of the grid cells around the existing towns (see annex B). These high probabilities are caused by the strong correlation between urban land use and the travel distance to a residential centre. The relatively influence of the distance to a residential centre is very high. This means that during the allocation of urban area the probability of cells near to existing urban area is higher than cells further away. An interesting observation is that in practice this is not always the way new development will occur. It is not unthinkable that new development will occur on locations without any urban area near by. These are planned new towns. Looking at the current development policy in the study area this correlation between urban development and the distance to residential centre seems not be that strong as the regression suggests. A possibility to simulate the development of new towns is to turn the stable driving factor Distance to residential centre into a dynamic driving factor by using planning maps. Now you can insert for every year of simulation a map with the distance to residential centres. Now its possible to add a new centre to the map with the distances to residential centres. To use this method it is necessary to know where the new towns are located and in which year the development starts. In practice this is not easy to ascertain. The new developments are not planned on national or state scale but developed by independent project developers. In this situation it is hard to produce the dynamic driving factor Distance to residential centre. 5.1.5 Relevance

The CLUE-S model is a useful tool to support the land use decisions in a study area like the Selangor river basin. It can show the impact of proposed events and developed policies. Especially the new developments that are located in an area that was never populated before

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can have an enormous effect on the environment. The effects on the land use can be studied by the use of the CLUE-S model. The model simulates the land use changes that are related to the new town, for example the clearance of forest around a new town. Another way to use the CLUE-S model in the study area is to show the policy makers what the effects are if the pressure on forests holds on. In the simulation without restricted areas is shown that the forests will almost disappear in the central part of the study area. With the use of the CLUE-S model its possible to show how important it is to protect the forests and the status of the forest reserves.

5.2 Conclusions
The CLUE-S model is successfully applied to the Selangor river basin. The main driving factors were derived from the biophysical and social dimension of the study area. The main policies and the expert knowledge about the area were represented in the decision rules. Without the existence of forest reserves most of the forest will be converted into another land use type in the near future. The CLUE-S model is sensitive to the use of a change matrix. To restrict one land use type in conversion, big differences are occurring in the simulated land use configuration. Most of the urban development is concentrated. In a band from south to north trough the study area most of the urban development is located. The accessibility and the initial population density are important factors in these.

Recommendations:

Use the Change matrix in future applications of the CLUE-S model.

Develop a method that enables CLUE-S to use the stability settings of the land use types in a site specific way.

Pay more attention to applications of CLUE-S.

the social driving factors of land use change in future

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References
Briassoulis, H. 2000. Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches. In The web book of regional science. West Virginia University, Regional Research Institute, Morgantown, http://www.rri.wvu.edu/WebBook/Briassoulis/contents.htm (February 2002). Dallal, G.E. The little handbook of statistical practice. Jean Mayer USDA Human Nutrition Research Center on Aging, Tufts University, Boston. http://www.tufts.edu/~gdallal/LHSP.HTM (February 2002) Department of statistics Malaysia. 1991. Population Report for Mukim, (population and housing census of Malaysia 1991). Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Department of statistics Malaysia. 1991. Population report for local authority areas (population and housing census of Malaysia 1991). Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Department of statistics Malaysia. 1999. Bank data 1999. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Department of statistics Malaysia. 2000. Bank data 2000. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Department of statistics Malaysia. 2000. Preliminary count report, population and housing census of Malaysia 2000. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Economic Planning Unit Prime ministers department. 2001. The Malaysian Economy 2001(In figures), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Garson, G.B.,PA 765 Statenotes: An online textbook. http://www2.chass.ncsu.edu/garson/pa765/logistic.htm (February 2002). Geoghegan J., Villar, S.C., Klepeis, P., Mendoza, P.M., L., Ogneva-Himmelberger, Y., Chowdhury, R.R., Turner II, B.L., Vance, C. 2001. Modeling tropical deforestation in the Southern Yucatan peninsular region: comparing survey and satellite data. Agriculture, Ecosystem & Environment 85: 25-46.

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Gorsevski, P.V., Gessler, P., Foltz, R.B. 2000. Spatial prediction of landslide hazard using logistic regression and GIS. Banff, Alberta, Canada. http://www.colorado.edu/research/cires/banffupload/305. (February 2002) Kok, K. 2001. Scaling the land use system. Phd thesis Wageningen university, Wageningen Neter, J., Kutner, M.H., Nachtsheim, C.J., Wasserman, W. 1996. Applied linear statistical models. 4th edition, Richard D. Irwin, Inc., United states of America.

Nor Ghani Md. Nor, Sharifah Matura S. A., Asmah Ahmad, Rahimah Abd. Aziz. Transport accessibility and deforestation: Econometric estimates using data from the Klang-Langat watershed study. Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia. Palang, H, Mander, U. 2000. Holistic landscape ecology in action. Landscape and urban planning vol. 50: no. 1-3. Pontius Jr, R.G. and Schneider, L.C. 2001. Land cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment 85: 239-248. Riebsame, W.E., Meyer, W.B., Turner II B.L. 1994. Modeling land use and cover as part of global environmental change. Climatic change 28: 45-64. Serneels, S. and Lambin, E.F. 2001. Proximate causes of land use change in Narok district, Kenya: a spatial statistical model. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment 85: 65-82.

Sharifah Mastura S.A., Asmah Ahmad, Zuriati Zakaria, Maimon Abdullah. 2000. Environmental imperatives of land use and land cover change in South East Asia. University Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia. Soepboer, W. 2001. CLUE-S, an application for Sibuyan Island, Philippines. Thesis report Wageningen University, Wageningen.

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Swets, J.A. 1988. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science June 1988: 12851293. Turner II, B.L., Clarck, W.C., Kates, R.W., Richards, J.F. 1990. The earth as transformed by human action : global and regional changes in the biosphere over the past 300 years. Cambridge University press, Cambridge, UK Van Zalinge, 2001. Understanding the spatial distribution of forest cover change in the Selangor river basin. Thesis report Wageningen University, Wageningen. Verburg, P.H. and Chen, Y.Q. 2000. Multiscale characterization of land-use patterns in China. Ecosystems 3: 369-385. Verburg, P.H., Dijst, M., Schot, P., Unpublished. Modelling approaches for the analysis of the dynamics of land use: perspectives for a new generation of integrated models. Faculty of geographical sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht. (Draft). Verburg, P.H. and Ritsema van Eck, J. Unpublished. Networks in the Delta: a theoretical and methodological framework to contribute to improved land use planning. Faculty of geographical sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht. (Draft). Verburg, P.H. Unpublished. Modelling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: The CLUE-S model. Wageningen University, Wageningen. (Draft). Verburg, P.H., de Koning, F., Soepboer, W., Veldkamp, A. 2001. CLUE: An integrated, GISbased model to simulate the dynamics of land use in developing counties. Department of environmental sciences, Wageningen university, Wageningen. Verburg, P.H. 2001. CLUE-S manual: model version for relatively small areas and data-sets with a high spatial resolution. Department of environmental sciences, Wageningen university, Wageningen. Wong. I.F.T. 1970. Reconnaissance soil survey of Selangor. Ministry of agriculture and lands, Malaysia.

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Annex A: Driving factors

A. Altitude

Meters above sea level

0 - 184 185 - 369 370 - 554 555 - 739 740 - 924 925 - 1109 1110 - 1294 1295 - 1479 1480 - 1664 N o D ata

B. Distance to road

Meters to nearest road

0 - 932 932 - 1863 1863 - 2795 2795 - 3727 3727 - 4658 4658 - 5590 5590 - 6522 6522 - 7454 7454 - 8385 N o D a ta

C. Distance to river

Meters to nearest river

71 - 776 777 - 1481 1482 - 2186 2187 - 2891 2892 - 3596 3597 - 4301 4302 - 5006 5007 - 5711 5712 - 6416 N o D ata

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D. Distance to centre of residence Meters to nearest residential centre

0 - 1961 1 9 6 1 - 39 2 3 3 9 2 3 - 58 8 4 5 8 8 4 - 78 4 6 7 8 4 6 - 98 0 7 9 8 0 7 - 11 7 6 9 1 1 7 69 - 1 3 7 3 0 1 3 7 30 - 1 5 6 9 1 1 5 6 91 - 1 7 6 5 3 N o D a ta

E. Distance to centre of forest

Meters to nearest forest centre

0 - 1458 1458 - 2915 2915 - 4373 4373 - 5831 5831 - 7289 7289 - 8746 8746 - 10204 10204 - 11662 11662 - 13120 N o D a ta

F. Alluvial soils

Alluvial soils

0 1 No Data

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G. Fluvisols

Fluvisols

0 1 No Data

H. Layered soils

Layered soils

0 1 No Data

I. Shallow soils

Shallow soils

0 1 No Data

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J. Suitability class 1

Suitability class 1 0 1 No Data

K. Suitability class 2

Suitability class 2 0 1 No Data

L. Suitability class 4

Suitability class 4 0 1 No Data

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M. Suitability class 5

Suitability class 5 0 1 No Data

N. Population density

Number of inhabitants per raster

0 - 52 53 - 105 106 - 158 159 - 211 212 - 264 265 - 317 318 - 370 371 - 423 424 - 476 N o D ata

O. Agricultural labour force Number of Agricultural labourers per raster

0-1 1-3 3-4 4-6 6-7 7-9 9 - 10 1 0 - 12 1 2 - 13 N o D ata

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Annex B: Probability maps

A. Forest

P ro b a b ilities 0 - 0 .2 0 .2 - 0 .4 0 .4 - 0 .6 0 .6 - 0 .8 0 .8 - 1 N o D a ta

Forest in 1999

Probabilities for forest

B. Oil palm

P ro ba bilitie s 0 - 0 .1 8 0.1 8 - 0 .3 6 0.3 6 - 0 .5 5 0.5 5 - 0 .7 3 0.7 3 - 0 .9 1 N o D ata

Oil palm in 1999

Probabilities for oil palm

C. Rubber

P ro ba bilitie s 0 - 0 .1 5 0.1 5 - 0 .3 0.3 - 0 .4 6 0.4 6 - 0 .6 1 0.6 1 - 0 .7 6 N o D ata

Rubber in 1999

Probabilities for rubber

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D. Mixed culture

P ro ba bilitie s 0 - 0 .0 8 0.0 8 - 0 .1 6 0.1 6 - 0 .2 5 0.2 5 - 0 .3 3 0.3 3 - 0 .4 1 N o D ata

Mixed culture in 1999

Probabilities for mixed culture

E. Scrub & Grassland

P ro ba bilitie s 0 - 0 .0 9 0.0 9 - 0 .1 8 0.1 8 - 0 .2 6 0.2 6 - 0 .3 5 0.3 5 - 0 .4 4 N o D ata

Scrub & Grassland in 1999

Probabilities for scrub & grassland

F. Mining

P ro b a b ilities 0 - 0 .1 0 .1 - 0 .3 0 .3 - 0 .4 0 .4 - 0 .5 0 .5 - 0 .7 N o D a ta

Mining in 1999

Probabilities for mining

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G. Urban

P ro ba bilitie s 0 - 0 .1 9 0.1 9 - 0 .3 9 0.3 9 - 0 .5 8 0.5 8 - 0 .7 8 0.7 8 - 0 .9 7 N o D ata

Urban in 1999

Probabilities for urban

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Annex C: Step by step manual for the CLUE-S model

This step by step manual is meant as an extra help to work with the CLUE-S model. 1. Create a land use map in ArcView. 2. Create separate land use maps for every land use type Analysis mapcalculator - In ArcView - Select land use map = <number of one of the LUT> - Do this for all the LUT (land use types) 3. Create maps of the driving factors in ArcView 4. Install CLUE - See CD-ROM for instructions - CLUE automatically creates the folder d:clue/clues, or another directory if specified 5. Convert ArcView data into ASCII-files ASCII-file save in D: clue/clues (or the - In ArcView: Export data directory where CLUE is installed) - Give a name (max. 8 characters) you like but save as ASCII-file, do not change extension 6. Create the input files by renaming the ASCII-files. - See for description the detailed manual also. - Rename ASCII-files, one by one 1. Land use type files Cov1_#.0 (# = code for land use type, 0 = year 0). For every LUT a file is created with 1= present, 0= not present and 9999= no data 2. Driving factors A. Stable driving factors Sc1gr#.fil (# = code for explanatory factor) B. Dynamic driving factors Sc1gr#.* ( # = code for explanatory factor, *= the year) This has to be created for every year of simulation.

Evaluate

7. Prepare data for SPSS programs FileConverter) - Open fileconverter (Start menu - Settings: - All observations - Exclude no data values - Make stat-file - Edit file list: - Put in all LUT as well all driving factors - Type the filenames as in d:clue/clues - After last filename a double enter

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- Save file list Click convert all files from AV to ASC. Files are converted into one column with data (*.as2) This can take a while (Do this during your lunch break)

8. Do the Regression 1. Insert converted files into SPSS - Open the stat.asc file 2. Regression regression binary logistic - Analyse - Dependent One of the LUT - Covariates All driving factors that are considered relevant Forward conditional - Method - Click OK - Do this for every Land use type - Output: - Beta's and constant in table variables in the equation.

9. Put the Regression results in a file - Open D: clue/clue-s/alloc1.reg and insert the new regression results - The data you have to type in is in the SPSS output file, in the variables in the equation table. - See detailed manual 10. Create an area restriction file - See detailed manual - Create a file with 0 = Change is allowed, -9998 = Change is not allowed and -9999 = no data - File name is D: clue/clue-s/reg*.* file (e.g.: region1.fil) 11. Create a demand scenario - The area for every LUT and every year of simulation - Create it in D: clue/clue-s, name: demand.in* file. (* = number of scenario) - See detailed manual 12. Create the Main.1 file - Contains the main information about the run - Create it in D:clue/clue-s de main.1 file - See detailed manual 13. Change header file for case study in Borland C++ - Open Borland C++ builder - Open file: File1.h (d:clue/clue-s) - Change: - number of land use cover types - number of regions (usually 1)

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Max. number of exp. Factors (= number of Driving factors you used) - Number of rows in grid (as in ArcView theme properties) - Number of columns in grid(as in ArcView theme properties) - Surface area of one grid cell (in same units as demand, e.g. hectares) - Number of grids cells active (number of grid cells in study area) - Co-ordinates (the co-ordinates as in ArcView theme properties) Save all (file save all) Push the green run button to compile the program with the new settings. -

14. Running CLUE-S CLUE-S) - Open CLUE-S (start menu programs - Select a demand and an area restriction file. - Push RUN 15. Analysing the output - Open ArcView Import data source - File - Go to D:clue/clue-s - Select one of the cov_*.* files (E.g. Import all the cov_all.* files into ArcView) - Now you have for every year of simulation a land use map that is predicted by CLUE-S.

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Annex D: CD-ROM

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