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Chlor-Alkali: Co-Products, not Co-Demand

The combined output of 1.0 Ton of Chlorine and 1.1 Ton of Caustic = ECU ( Electro-Chemical Unit ) 1.0 ton Electricity Chlorine Salt Cell Water Hydrogen 1.1 ton Caustic Soda Health Care Water Treatment Pharmaceuticals Electronics Plastics (PVC) Metals: Aluminum, TiO2

Food Production
Processing & Packaging Home/Govt Construction Pulp and Paper Production

Auto & Truck Production

Caustic Supply is Set by Chlorine Production

Flame Retardant Materials

2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

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2011 Latin America Caustic End Uses


Water Treatment 4% Others 20% Pulp & Paper 20% Inorganics 5%

Soaps/ Detergents/ Textiles 12%

Organics 11%

Alumina 31%

2011 Domestic Demand = 3.9 Million Dry Metric Tons


2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

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Demand Growth Close Up


Caustic Soda Demand Year-on-Year, Million Metric Tons 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0

-4.0 2006
N. America

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016
Asia
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S. America

Europe

Africa/Middle East/Indian Subcontinent

2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

2011 Latin America Caustic Soda Supply Demand Future


Million Dry Metric Tons 5.0 4.0
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Production (0.1/2.5) Total Capacity (1.4/1.6) Domestic Demand (3.4/3.8)
(% AAGR = 06-11/11-16)
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2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

Mexico Caustic Net Trade


Thousand Dry Metric Tons 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6

-8
-10 -12 -14 09 A J O 10 Exports A J Imports O 11 Net Trade
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2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

Latin Americas Growing Demand


Alpart (2013)

South Americas

Alumina do Para (2014)

demand will likely grow by almost 700,000 metric tons from 2011 to 2016

Suzano (2013, 2014)


Veracel (2013) Eldorado (2012) Fibria (2014, 2015) Klabin Kimberly (2015)

LEGEND New Pulp Mill Capacity New Alumina Refinery Capacity

CMPC (2015)

Montes del Plata (2013)

2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

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U.S. ECU Cash Costs: Throw Me a Lifebuoy

Fixed $114

Electricity $152

2000 Total ECU Cash Cost = $312

Variable $14 Salt $32


All costs in 2012 constant dollars.

2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

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U.S. ECU Cash Costs: Throw Me a Lifebuoy


Fixed $95 Electricity $85

2012 Total ECU Cash Cost = $215

2000 = $312 2012 = $215

31% Cash Cost Decline

Variable $8

Salt $27
All costs in 2012 constant dollars.

2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

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ECU Cash Costs: Shale Gas Improves U.S.


Cash Costs, Dollars Per Metric Ton 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 2011 Electricity Costs (Cents/kWh) 250 North America = 3.0 200 Europe = 8.4 150 Brazil = 7.3 100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 USGC ECU Cash Costs NEA ECU Cash Costs

Middle East 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

WEP ECU Cash Costs CHI ECU Cash Costs


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2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

U.S. Chlor-Alkali Industry Responds to Shale Gas Advantage


Capacity, Million Dry Metric Tons 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 Change in Capacity, Million Dry Metric Tons 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 -0.25

14.0
13.5

-0.50
-0.75

13.0

-1.00

Change in Capacity Year over Year

North America Caustic Capacity North America Caustic Capacity


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2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

U.S. Producers- Net Exports Rising


Million Dry Metric Tons 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Imports Exports Net Exports as % of Total Demand
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Percentage 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

Global Outlook for Caustic Soda Flows


Global Caustic Net Trade, Thousand Dry Metric Tons 2509 525
Europe United States Northeast Asia

3366 2203

1320

2513

773

416

511

710

651

570

South America

Southeast Asia Middle East

Net Trade Flows


2006 1321 1915 2641 2011 2457

3986 3233
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2016

2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

Arbitrage Determines a Global Price

$450 FOB Northeast Asia $430 FOB Middle East

$410 FOB USGC $94

CFR Australia
February 2012 Spot Caustic Prices
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

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Price: The Battle Zone


Dollars Per Dry Metric Ton 800
U.S. AAP Caustic USGC

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

West Europe Contract (Delivered)


NEA Contract* (Delivered Taiwan)

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

* Excludes China
2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

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Beneath the Waves: Price Support


Caustic, U.S. Dollars per DMT 600 500 400 300 200
Tosoh Explosion 2011 Avg = $106 per Barrel

Crude, U.S. Dollars per Barrel 130


120 110 100 90 80 70 60

100

2010 Avg = $78 per Barrel

Japan Tsunami

0 Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

FOB NEA Spot

CFR SEA Spot

Dubai Crude Oil


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2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

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