Its that time of the year when serious fantasy heads start thinking about the upcoming football

season. With fantasy drafts roughly six to eight weeks away, the dedicated managers begin their preparation and strategy. For the insanely obsessed, we have been reading and gathering information since the end of last fantasy season. Its not so much a passion as it is a way of life. I love fantasy football, let me get that out of the way. I created a Twitter account solely for the purpose of reading and following my favorite football writers. With that being said, respected writers and tweeters alike have differing opinions about how to approach the draft. This is inevitable, to each his own. And while it fluctuates year by year, with positional depth and league scoring playing huge determining factors, Ive found that given similar or identical parameters, opinions from successful experts are still drastically different. What I wanted to do was conduct my own research to determine the validity of the varying draft strategies Ive been reading about. To put it simply, I focused on the first 2 draft selections of 36 different mock drafts. The combination of these first 2 selections is listed below. Picks 3-16 of each draft was done through the best player available to fill my starting roster, DST and kickers excluded. Taking that into consideration, if there was no available spot in my starting lineup I bypassed players with a slightly higher ADP, in order to select the best player available at a position that needed to be filled in my starting lineup. To complete this study, I used the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator, which lets you draft against experts, ADP, or a combination of both. I chose to draft using the combination of experts and ADP, as I felt that this was a more well-rounded approach to my data collection. I figured people in an ordinary draft rely on cheat sheets, but will also use their gut instinct at times as well (or at least should). I thought this feature gave the most realistic interpretation of that scenario. The combinations I focused on for each of the first 2 selections of the drafts are as follows: RB/RB RB/WR RB/TE WR/WR QB/TE QB early (1st or 2nd round, paired with best available player at any position except TE) In order to get accurate data, I did each of these combinations drafting from the 2 nd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th and 12th slots in the draft order of a 12-team mock. So with the 6 position combinations and 6 draft positions, you get 36 mock drafts. To calculate each starting rosters total points, I used ESPNs 2013 projected points for each player. For the purposes of my own leagues scoring, I wanted to count QB passing tds as 6 points. However, the Draft Simulator point assignments were defaulted at 4 point QB tds and couldnt be changed. Therefore, the simulator drafted QBs assuming passing tds were 4 points. If your league has 6 point passing tds, youre going to have to assume quarterbacks will be drafted earlier. How much earlier depends on the people drafting with you and their draft strategies, but keep that in mind regardless. Additionally, any drafts that included Rob Gronkowski (health) and Aaron Hernandez (legal) were under the assumption of a 16 game season despite their respective issues. While Gronk at least has a chance at a 16 game season, Hernandez unfortunately does not. I included each players projected point totals in parentheses. Here are the results: 2nd Pick: RB/RB early
QB- Stafford (288) Newton (323)

RB/WR
QB- E. Manning (232)

RB/TE
QB- Luck (280)

WR/WR
QB- Wilson (294)

QB/TE
QB- Rodgers (352)

QB
QB-

RB- Foster (261) RB- Foster (261) RB- Foster (261) RB- Bush (155) RB- Miller (138) RB- Foster (261) RB- McFadden (168) RB- Sproles (154) RB- Bell (133) RB- Sproles (154) RB- Sproles (154) RBSproles (154) WR- Harvin (177) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- J. Jones (186) WR- C. Johnson (236) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Nelson (154) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Nelson (154) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- S. Smith (137) WR- Nelson (154) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Pitta (107) TE- Gronk (173) TE- Rudolph (98) TE- Gronk (173) TEPitta (107) Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- S. Smith (137) Flex- Harvin (177) Flex- Shorts (131) Flex Wallace (154) Total: 1,335 points Total: 1,265 points Total: 1,324 points Total: 1,294 points Total: 1,265 points Total: 1,330 points Best Draft: RB/RB Point differential from highest total to lowest total: 70 points Point differential between highest and 2nd highest total: 5

4th Pick: RB/RB early

RB/WR

RB/TE

WR/WR

QB/TE

QB

QB- Luck (280) QB- Luck (280) QB- Luck (280) QB- Luck (280) QB- Rodgers (352) QBBrady (336) RB- Martin (226) RB- McFadden (168) RB- Charles (228) RB- Bush (154) RB- C. Johnson (172) RB- Charles (228) RB- Forte (182) RB- Forte (182) RB- Bush (154) RB- Sproles (154) RB- Bush (154) RBSproles (154) WR- Harvin (177) WR- C. Johnson (236) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- C. Johnson (236) WR- Nicks (126) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- Wallace (154) WR- Colston (150) WR- Colston (150) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- S.Smith (154) WR- Nelson (154) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Gronk (173) TE- Pitta (107) TE- Gronk (173) TE- Gonzalez (133) Flex- Sproles (154) Flex- Nicks (124) Flex- Ivory (128) Flex- Harvin (177) Flex- Ivory (128) FlexWallace (154) Total: 1,306 points Total: 1,273 points Total: 1,293 points Total: 1,288 points Total: 1,259 points Total: 1,339 points Best Draft: QB early Point differential from highest total to lowest total: 80 points Point differential between highest and 2nd highest total: 33 points

6th Pick: RB/RB early

RB/WR

RB/TE

WR/WR

QB/TE
QB- Stafford (288)

QB
QB- Brees RB- Sproles (154)

QB- Romo (284) QB- Luck (280) (334) QB- Brady (336) RB- Martin (226) RB- Spiller (227) RB- Lynch (233) RB- C. Johnson (172) RB- McFadden (168) RBWR- Harvin (177) WR- J. Jones (186) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Colston (150) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Nelson (154) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Gonzalez (133) Flex- Sproles (154) Flex- Sproles (154) Flex- S. Smith (137)

QB- Stafford (288)

RB- Charles (228) RB- Sproles (154)

Sproles (154) RB- Ivory (128) RB- Mendenhall (119) RB- Miller (138) WR- A. Johnson (177) WR- C. Johnson (236) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Nicks (126) TE- Graham (174) Flex- Wallace (154) WR- J. Jones (186) TE- Gonzalez (133) Flex- Harvin (177) WR- Nelson (154) TE- Graham (174) Flex- Amendola (125)

Total: 1,296 points Total: 1,325 points Total: 1,301 points 1,237points Total: 1,308 points Best Draft: RB/WR Point differential from highest total to lowest total: 88 points Point differential from highest total to 2nd highest total: 17 points

Total: 1,302 points

Total:

8th Pick: RB/RB early

RB/WR

RB/TE

WR/WR

QB/TE

QB

QB- Romo (284) QB- Newton (323) QB- Luck (280) QB- Stafford (288) QB- Rodgers (352) QB- Brady (336) RB- Charles (228) RB- Martin (226) RB- Lynch (233) RB- Sproles (155) RB- Murray (151) RB- Charles (228) RB- Forte (182) RB- Bell (133) RB- Sproles (154) RB- Ivory (128) RB- Miller (138) RB- Bush (155) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Bryant (202) WR- Harvin (177) WR- C. Johnson (236) WR- A. Johnson (177) WR- D. Thomas (180) WR- Wallace (154) WR- Cobb (171) WR- Wallace (177) WR- Marshall (196) WR- Wallace (154) WR- Wallace (154) TE- Witten (123) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Graham (174) TE- Olsen (98) TE- Graham (174) TE- Rudolph (98) Flex- Bush (155) Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- Matthews (140) Flex- D. Thomas (180) Flex- Shorts (138) Flex- Sproles (154) Total: 1,303 points Total: 1,342 points Total: 1,335 points Total: 1,281 points Total: 1,284 points Total: 1,305 points Best Draft: RB/WR Point differential from highest total to lowest total: 61 points Point differential from highest total to 2nd highest total: 7 points

10th Pick: RB/RB early

RB/WR

RB/TE

WR/WR

QB/TE

QB

QB- Stafford (288) QB- Romo (284) QB- Wilson (294) QB- Wilson (294) QB- Rodgers (352) QB- Brees (334) RB- Rice (232) RB- Spiller (227) RB- Richardson (226) RB- Bush (155) RB- Murray (151) RB- McCoy (200) RB- Morris (219) RB- McFadden (168) RB- Ivory (128) RB- Bell (133) RB- Miller (138) RB- Miller (138) WR- White (177) WR- Bryant (202) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Green (201) WR- A. Johnson (177) WR- A. Johnson (177) WR- Cruz (152) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Cobb (171) WR- Bryant (202) WR- Wallace (154) WRCobb (171) TE- Pitta (107) TE- Gonzalez (138) TE- Graham (174) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Graham (174) TE- Gonzalez (133) Flex- S. Johnson (128) Flex- Sproles (154) Flex- Antonio Brown (134) Flex- Harvin (177) Flex- Shorts (138) Flex- Wallace (154) Total: 1,303 points Total: 1,350 points Total: 1,304 points Total: 1,295 points Total: 1,284 points Total: 1,307 points Best Draft: RB/WR Point differential from highest total to lowest total: 66 points Point differential from highest total to 2nd highest total: 43 points

12th Pick: RB/RB QB early

QB- Romo (284) QB- Brees (334)

RB/WR
QB- Stafford (288)

RB/TE
QB- Romo (284)

WR/WR
QB- Stafford (288)

QB/TE

QB- Rodgers (352)

RB- Morris (219) RB- Richardson (226)RB- Morris (219) RB- Bush (154) RB- Jones-Drew (172)RBMorris (219) RB- Forte (182) RB- Bush (154) RB- Bush (154) RB- McFadden (168) RB- McFadden (168) RBBush (154) WR- Cobb (171) WR- Green (201) WR- Cobb (171) WR- Green (201) WR- V. Jackson (175) WR- White (177) WR- Cruz (152) WR- Harvin (177) WR- Decker (134) WR- Bryant (202) WR- Wallace (154) WR- Decker (134) TE- Pitta (98) TE- Gonzalez (133) TE- Graham (174) TE- Daniels (98) TE- Graham (174) TEGonzalez (133) Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- Garcon (123) Flex- Wallace (154) Flex- Ball (162) Flex- T. Smith (138) Flex- S. Smith (137) Total: 1,260 points Total: 1,302 points Total: 1,290 points Total: 1,273 points Total: 1,333 points Total: 1,288 points Best Draft: QB/TE Point differential from highest total to lowest total: 73 points Point differential from highest total to 2nd highest total: 31 points

Pick Number

DATA Combination with greatest starting roster points RB/RB QB early RB/WR RB/WR RB/WR QB/TE

SUMMARY Point differential from highest to lowest total 70 80 88 61 66 73

2 4 6 8 10 12

Point differential from highest to 2nd highest total 5 33 17 7 43 31

While this data collection is only from a one-time experiment, what I found interesting was the differences in points from the highest total to the second highest total. That is a more telling indication of the quality of team drafted shown by the separation between the 1 st and 2nd place team. So while RB/RB totaled the highest total points while drafting from the 2 nd spot (1,335), the difference from RB/RB and going with a QB early (Rodgers/Brees) is only 5 points. Therefore, one might conclude that going QB early while drafting from the 2nd spot is the safer play because you essentially eliminate injury to your #1 pick (but not all the time, ie Brady 2008). This strategy is in direct contrast to what JJ Zachariason and other advocates of drafting a QB late or even streaming QBs would do. Im not supporting nor attacking any strategy, just providing something to consider. On the flip side, there is a 43 point differential from the highest and 2 nd highest total while drafting from the 10th spot. In this experiment, RB/WR provided the highest point total, and a significant advantage over the second highest point total. To further the findings, of the 6 different draft slots (2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th, 12th), the RB/WR combination recorded the highest point total in 3 of them. Again, all of these numbers may end up being arbitrary because of the small sample size. I am going to repeat the entire process and chart the same data in order to see if these conclusions are valid and consistent. Some food for thought regarding the findings: 1. Ive found that on drafts where I went WR/WR in the first two rounds, the best player on the board in the third round was another dynamic WR such as Damaryius Thomas or Percy Havin. This makes for a high upside flex play in my opinion. The downside is you have to draft your RBs wisely in the next few rounds to make up for the lack of strength that the top RBs offer. 2. Ive found that when spending a high pick on a QB, TE or both, my bench was very thin. Guys who would be a luxury to have on your bench in case of injury are now finding their way into your starting lineup. So you have to weigh the cost benefit analysis for either decision.

3. Even after Graham and Gronk, I still valued tight ends fairly significantly. After Graham and Gronk were taken by other teams, I still targeted Witten or Gonzalez in rounds 5-6. Those who believe in guys like Jared Cook, Jordan Cameron or Martellus Bennett this year can wait another 4-6 rounds for a tight end and grab another skill player instead, while possibly getting comparable production at the tight end position. 4. These drafts were completed before Hernandez was arrested, and therefore he was drafted under the assumption of a 16 game season. Widely believed to be the third tight end taken off the board, there is a chance that guys like Witten and Gonzalez would not have been available in the 6th round, which is when I was drafting them. This would alter rosters to a degree. After I complete this entire process a second time, it will hopefully provide more insight as to whether or not these findings are consistent. Not only will I look to determine consistency laterally (Did RB/WR still give me the highest total from the 8 th slot the second time I drafted?), but also I will compare combinations vertically as well (Comparing RB/WR from the 8 th slot the 1st time drafting vs. the 2nd time drafting)