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Compiled by Muhammad Aleem Habib June 25, 2013 Information derived from PMBOK & Rita Mulcahy
What is a Risk?
A risk is an uncertain event that could have a positive or negative effect on your project * This means there is a probability between 1-99% that the event could occur If there is a 0% chance of an event occurring, there is no risk (example; there is a 0% chance your project will be adequately funded, this is not a risk, it is a reality).
What is a Risk?
If there is a 100% chance of an event occurring, this would be an issue, not a risk Risks with negative consequences are called threats Risks with positive consequences are called opportunities (Yes, risk can be good! Stop thinking of risk as bad, and start thinking of it in terms of probabilities!)
Types of Risk
Risks can be broken out into two primary types 1. Pure Risk (hazard) risk with potential loss only
ex. Fire, theft, personal injury
Threats
Initiating Processes
Closing Processes
Executing Processes
Knowledge Area
Executing
Closing
Risk
Risk Factors
1. The probability the risk will occur 2. The range of possible outcomes (impact)
3. When in the project lifecycle the risk is likely to occur (the timing); * once the expected timeframe of the risk has passed and it is no longer a risk, it can be removed from the risk list 4. How often the risk is expected to occur on the project (frequency)
Important to provide sufficient resources and time for risk management activities, and to establish an agreed upon basis for evaluating risk.
How much time should we spend? Who will be involved? How should we perform risk management?
Business
Technical
Organizational
Project Management
RBS Example
Risk Profile
A risk profile is a list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project. These questions has been designed and developed from the experience of past projects.
No 1
Category Resource
Description of Risk Testing environment not available Documentation approval took longer time
IMPACT 4
PROBA BILITY B
Schedule
RED
Q: An uncommon state of nature, characterized by the absence of any information related to a desired outcome , is a common definition for:
Question ?
Who should be involved in Risk Identification?
Flowcharts
Q: Risk tolerances are determined in order to help: A. The team rank the project risks B. The project manager estimate the project C. The team schedule the project D. Management know how other managers will act to the project
Risk Data Quality Assessment What is the quality of the data used to determine or assess the risk? Think about the following
Extent of the understanding of the risk Data available about the risk Quality of the data Reliability & Integrity of the data
In the example below, this project has an EMV of ($58,250), this means that you need to put aside $58,250 in your risk reserve account for potential risks
Risk A B C D Probability 20% 90% 5% 65% Impact $ (100,000.00) $ $ 10,000.00 30,000.00 EMV $(20,000.00) $ 9,000.00 $ 1,500.00 $(48,750.00) $(58,250.00)
$ (75,000.00) Total
Q: If a project has a 60% chance of a US $ 100,000 profit and a 40% chance of a US $ 100,000 loss, the expected monetary value for the project is :
Airline A has a 90% chance to reach at time and Airline B has a 60% chance to reach at time. If you dont reach at time, it will cost you 100,000. Use EMV to find which airline you should choose?
Airline A EMV: 10,000 + (10% * 100,000) = 20,000 Airline B EMV: 8000 + (40%*100,000) = 48,000
Sensitivity Analysis
To determine which risks have the most potential impact to the project Changing one or more elements/variables and set other elements to its baseline then see the impact. One typical display of sensitivity analysis is the tornado diagram Tornado diagram is useful in analyzing risk taking scenarios. They provide the positive and negative impact of each risk on the project and let you decide to choose which risk to take.
Outcome of Quantitative RA
Risk Register Updates Prioritized list of quantified risks Amount needed for contingency reserves for time and cost Confidence levels of completing the project on a certain date for a certain amount of money The probability of delivering the project objectives Trends - risk management is an iterative process; as you repeat the process you can track your overall project risk and determine the trend (if you are decreasing or increasing the level of risk on your project)
Exploit
Accept
Avoid
Enhance
Transfer
Active Share
Passive
Mitigate
Contingency Plan
Fallback Plan
Workaround
Avoidance
Risk prevention Changing the plan to eliminate a risk by avoiding the cause/source of risk Protect project from impact of risk Examples:
Change the supplier / engineer Do it ourselves (do not subcontract) Reduce scope to avoid high risk deliverables Adopt a familiar technology or product
Mitigation
Seeks to reduce the impact or probability of the risk event to an acceptable threshold Be proactive: Take early actions to reduce impact/probability and dont wait until the risk hits your project Examples:
Staging - More testing - Prototype Redundancy planning Use more qualified resources
Transfer
Shift responsibility of risk consequence to another party Does NOT eliminate risk Most effective in dealing with financial exposure Examples:
Buy/subcontract: move liabilities Selecting type of Procurement contracts: Fixed Price Insurance: liabilities + bonds + Warranties
Passive Acceptance
Deal with the risks as they occur = Workarounds Usually for low ranked risks
Interface Problems
System freezing User backlash
Asif
Still frozen after 1 Khalid hour Cell from top management Equipment fails Javed
Equipment malfunction
Aleem
Q: Replacing a doubtful supplier with an expensive but reliable one is an example of: A. Mitigation B. Transference C. Acceptance D. Avoidance
What risk management activities are done during execution of the project?
Watch-out risks on watch-list and looking for new risks.
Performance reports
Practice Exam
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