Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: South China Sea: China and ASEAN Discussions on a Code of Conduct (1) Carlyle A. Thayer June 25, 2013

[client name deleted] We request your assessment of the following issues: 1. After Shangri-La 12 (this years Shangri-La Dialogue), Vietnamese and Asian press reported that the South China Sea situation has not undergone much change, with China still strengthening its power and threatening fishermen of other claimant countries. What is your assessment of this evaluation? ANSWER: The Shangri-La Dialogue is only a discussion forum and does not take binding decisions. The South China Sea was not formally on the agenda. The Defence Secretary from the Philippines did not mention the West Philippine Sea in his address. China was not represented by its Defence Minister; Chinese delegates largely adopted a low-key tone because of the impending meeting between presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping. Vietnam's Prime Minister raised tensions in a very diplomatic way (he spoke only of some countries). In fact during question and answer session a Chinese general thanked him for not mentioning China. China has not changed its policy of intimidation towards the Philippines. But the incidents between China and Vietnam are not as numerous or as severe as previous years. China's announcement in April this year that it would discuss the Code of Conduct with ASEAN officials at director general level as part of the Working Group to Implement the DOC (Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea) has created an environment where no party wants to be blamed for upsetting possible diplomatic progress. 2. According to media, the South China Sea and the involvement of the United States in the South China Sea was one of subjects discussed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama in California recently. After Xis visit to the US, the US has seemed to limit its involvement in South China Sea issues. What do you think about that? ANSWER: President Obama raised territorial disputes in the East and South China Sea. Xi Jinping stuck to China's well known position. No progress was made on this issue. The US is mainly concerned about the Senkaku islands. It has treaty obligations

2 to Japan but takes no side on territorial sovereignty disputes. The US position is to counsel a diplomatic solution. The US in not a party principle to this dispute. 3. Vietnamese press said South China Sea issues were on the agenda of talks between Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang and Chinese President Xi Jinping during his recent visit to China. The two countries stated that preserving the status quo is a good solution and suitable to Vietnam and China. What is your assessment? ANSWER: Vietnam must always seek reassurance from China that force and coercion will not be used to settle their territorial disputes. The two leaders backed government-to-government talks under the Guidelines on Fundamental Principles to Settle Maritime Disputes. Preserving the status quo is a positive step if it means no use of force. At the moment China-Vietnam relations are heading in a positive direction but there is a long way to go before both sides address their territorial disputes outside of the waters of the mouth of the Gulf of Tonkin. 4. ASEAN and China have recently agreed to promote activities relating to DOC and COC. Could you please predict the likely outcome of negotiations between ASEAN and China about South China Sea issues in the coming time? ANSWER: We are about to see the commencement of protracted talks perhaps in August and then later in the year at foreign minister level. Thailand is working hard to advance this process as ASEAN's country co-ordinator for China. Last September the ASEAN foreign ministers reviewed Indonesia's draft COC. More work needs to be done before it is finalised. Next, ASEAN will have to maintain a united front behind this COC. China will want to press for compromise and rewording of this document. China is also like to insist that progress take place in implementing the cooperative activities under the DOC. China will insist that outside powers such as the US should have no role while ASEAN and China are discussing this issue. In other words, we are entering a positive period but it would be unwise to jump to the conclusion that outstanding issues will be settled quickly.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: China and ASEAN Discussions on a Code of Conduct, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 25, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: South China Sea: China and ASEAN Discussions on a Code of Conduct (2) Carlyle A. Thayer July 1, 2013

[client name deleted] Can you provide a brief assessment of the latest offer by China on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC)? It seems that it is not even an official COC negotiation but just only a consultation on the sidelines of DOC discussions scheduled for September? Will China used the eminent person group proposal as a stalling tactic rather than a real push for COC? ANSWER: YThe latest Chinese statement on the COC reiterates what Chinese officials told the 9th ASEAN-China consultations in April. China agrees to discuss the COC at the director-general level at the Working Group to Implement the DOC. This is not an official bilateral mechanism to discuss the COC. Chinas proposal for an Eminent Persons Group (EPG) was made last year; it was for 20 members, ten from China and one from each ASEAN country. The composition of such a group must be decided, for example an 11 person group, one from each country. Also what authority will the EPG have? Some in ASEAN only want to consult the EPG when they direct it to consider some specific issue. China would like the EPG to discuss aspects of the COC. China can make difficulties at the unofficial level and use lack of consensus there to delay progress in the official working group discussions. Chia is distancing itself so it cannot be blamed directly for lack of progress.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: China and ASEAN Discussions on a Code of Conduct (2), Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 1, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: South China Sea: Chinas Olive Branch and Mailed Fist Carlyle A. Thayer July 2, 2013

[client name deleted] We urgently request a short assessment of the following two issues: ANSWER: 1.Any tangible progress on the South China Sea issue made at the ASEAN meetings in Brunei? ANSWER: The most significant development was agreement by the ASEAN foreign ministers to publicly call on China to commence formal consultations on the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea at senior official level. This is a step up from Chinas present commitment to discuss the COC informally within the context of discussion on the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. 2. What was purpose of China's pointed comments directed at the Philippines a few days ago, right before the ASEAN meetings were to take place? ANSWER: China has adopted a policy of responding and reacting to any development concerning the South China Sea it views as challenging its prerogatives by blasting back. In this case China was responding to remarks by the Philippines Secretary for Foreign Affairs Del Rosario that Chinas militarization of the dispute was a threat to regional security.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinas Olive Branch and Mailed Fist, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 2, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.