Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com

rd

3 July 2013

Equities
2011

Market Exhibits Signs Of Recovery

The markets reversed weeks of downward momentum with the NSE 20 Share Index gaining marginally by 1.11 points to close
at 4,562.83 points up from 4,561.74 Market capitalization expanded by 0.04% to close the day at Kes.1.616Tn down from
Kes.1.615Tn registered in yesterdays trading session. Equity turnover remained defiant to market trends by maintaining its
upward momentum, gaining 22.39% to close at 0.530Bn up from 0.433Bn. Foreign investors took to accumulating activities
with net inflows recorded at 1.92Mn.
Foreign investor activity was at 62.94% down from 66.93% recorded at the end of yesterdays close of business. Foreigners
reversed their selling stance to register net inflow at Kes. 1.92Mn up from an outflow position of Kes. 15.67Mn recorded in
the previous trading session.
To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results, is harder than it
looks- Benjamin Graham
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:

Most Actively Traded Counters

Equity
Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05
Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50
The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00
East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00
Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

Value Traded
150,232,110.00
134,177,400.00
80,288,450.00
42,217,200.00
34,473,750.00

Index
NASI
NSE 20 Share

Price (KES)
15.35
15.95
4.90
11.25
32.50

% Change
6.60%
5.63%
5.38%
2.74%
1.56%

Losing Stocks
Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

2.45 -5.77%

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00

46.00 -4.66%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

23.00 -3.16%
14.10 -2.08%

% change
0.03%
0.02%

The Advance/Decline ratio stood at 14/14. 14

counters increased in price while 14declined.

Foreign investor participation closed the day

at 62.94% down from 66.93% registered at
the close of yesterdays session.

Foreigners closed the day on a selling

position with a net outflow of Kes. 15.67Mn
slightly up from a net outflow of Kes.
26.51Mn recorded at the end of yesterdays
trading session.

Safaricom Limited (NSE: SCOM) closed the

day with the highest turnover at
Kes.145.62Mn which accounted for 27.47% of
foreign activity in the market. Equity Bank
Limited (NSE: EQTY) followed distantly at
Kes. 100.08Mn contributing to 18.88% of
foreign activity.

The highest inflow was experienced by

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd (NSE: KCB) at
Kes.5.61Mn followed by Uchumi Ltd (NSE:
UCHM) at Kes. 5.13Mn while the highest net
outflow was observed by Equity Bank Ltd
(NSE: EQTY) at Kes. 14.93Mn.

Price (KES)
% Change
3.85 -7.23%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

Today
115.48
4562.83

Gaining Stocks
Equity
E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50
Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00
CIC Insurance Group Ltd Ord.1.00
Liberty Kenya Holdings Ltd Ord.1.00
Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

Previous
115.44
4561.74

Table 3: NSE Summary

Daily Market Note

Previous
Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)
1,615.51
Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)
433.17
Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)
33.07;66.93
Advance;Decline Ratio
13;16
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)
1,351.90
Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O: (Mn)
0.00
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of Total Bond T/O)
0.00%
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Today
1,616.20
530.13
37.06;62.94
14;14
2,107.25
0.00
0

% Change
0.04%
22.39%

55.87%

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover
2nd July 2013

3rd July 2013

Buys (Kes)

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

Sales (Kes)

137,118,437.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

152,791,600.00

167,793,587.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

165,875,035.00

(15,673,162.50)

1,918,552.50

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The total index decreased by 0.16%. Three sectors advanced in value, while seven sectors declined.
The Construction & Allied Sector was the best sector for the day with 1.65% gain in value. E. A. Portland
Cement (NSE: EAPC) and E.A. Cables (NSE: CABL) spurred performance in this sector by recording gains
of 6.73% and 6.60% in value. The counters closed the trading at Kes. 55.50 and Kes. 15.35 respectively.
The worst performing sector for the day was the Investment Sector posting a decline of 1.89%. Olympia
Capital Holdings (NSE: OCH) continued to weigh down the sector with losses of 7.23%. The counter has
been experiencing distribution activities after management announced a 67.48% dip in their bottom-line
profit despite a 6% gain in revenues for the year ended Feb 2013.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector
CONSTRUCTION & ALLIED
INSURANCE
BANKING
MANUFACTURING & ALLIED
AGRICULTURAL
TELECOMMUNICATION & TECHNOLOGY
COMMERCIAL AND SERVICES
ENERGY & PETROLEUM
AUTOMOBILES & ACCESSORIES
INVESTMENT
Total Index

Constituents
5
6
11
9
7
2
9
5
4
3
61

Gain/ -Loss
1.65%
1.63%
0.39%
-0.16%
-0.28%
-0.39%
-0.48%
-0.80%
-1.26%
-1.89%
-0.16%

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in 2012 and carried forward to 2013.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)
Price at
Recommendation
14.55
33.25
10.70
54.00
11.80
31.12
157.00
42.75
7.20
338.00
4.00
168.00
16.40
10.05
8.30
163.00
10.90
25.50
22.75
49.25

Company
Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50
Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50
KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05
NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00
E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50
ARM Cement Ltd Ord 1.00
Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00
Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00
Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00
Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50
British-American Investments Co.(Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10
Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00
The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00
Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50
KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00
Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00
Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00
Portfolio Return

12 Month Target
Price
24.50
36.85
12.00
58.40
14.55
73.00
172.00
44.00
22.25
334.00
6.25
201.00
16.76
22.00
20.90
186.00
15.50
33.97
32.85
59.60

Current Price
21.00
31.50
8.80
53.00
15.35
64.00
169.00
37.50
19.70
300.00
8.00
210.00
15.50
16.15
15.00
234.00
12.70
25.50
22.00
60.50

Upside
Potential
14.29%
14.52%
26.67%
9.25%
-5.50%
12.33%
1.74%
14.77%
11.46%
10.18%
-28.00%
-4.48%
7.52%
26.59%
28.23%
-25.81%
18.06%
24.93%
33.03%
-1.51%

Return to Date
44.33%
-5.26%
-17.76%
-1.85%
30.08%
105.66%
7.64%
-12.28%
173.61%
-11.24%
100.00%
25.00%
-5.49%
60.70%
80.72%
43.56%
16.51%
0.00%
-3.30%
22.84%
32.67%

Recommendation
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
SELL
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD

Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

Fixed Income:
Treasury Remains Inactive in the Repo Market
Money Markets: Treasury remained inactive in todays trading session.
Primary Markets: The 182-day T-Bill and 364-Day T-Bills were auctioned today with treasury accepting Kes.90.8Mn
and Kes.37.4Mn respectively. The rate for the 182-Day paper increased to 6% while that of the 364-Day T-Bill remained
unchanged at 8.356%. The 91-Day will be auctioned tomorrow Kes.2Bn. The sale of the 15yr Treasury bond will be
reopened from July 8th to July 23rd. The bond will have a coupon yield of 12.725%.
Secondary Markets: Bond turnover was up to Kes. 2.17Bn from yesterdays Kes.1.35Bn. The 15yr and 10yr Treasury
bonds were dominantly traded at turnovers of Kes.750Mn and Kes.700Mn respectively and collectively contributing
to 99% of the days traded volume.

Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs

Tenor
91 Day
182 Day
1 Year
2 Year
5 Year
10 Year

Kenya
5.18%
6.00%
8.36%
12.94%
11.31%
12.37%

Uganda
Tanzania
U.S
LIBOR (USD)
0.05%
10.42%
11.91%
0.27%
0.09%
12.11%
13.97%
0.41%
0.14%
13.44%
14.51%
0.68%
0.33%
12.98%
14.30%
-1.31%
13.98%
14.86%
-2.41%
14.14%
15.82%
-Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

33

Daily Market Note

Currency:
Shilling Declines

Performance: The KES registered a poor showing, gaining in two currency pairs while weakening
in five. The only gains for the day were 1.0% and 0.78% against the ZAR and INR respectively. The
gain against the INR was due to concerns that overseas investors would pull out more money
from local assets leaving the rupee vulnerable to a record current account deficit. The biggest
drop of 1.16% to the GBP was due to the pound strengthening against the USD after industry
reports showed UK service & manufacturing growth accelerated in June; coupled with
construction expansion signalling that the economic recovery is gaining momentum.
Table 8: Currency Rate
Currency Pair

3rd July 2013

USD/KES

85.90

86.15

GBP/KES

130.15

131.66

EUR/KES

111.68

111.83

ZAR/KES

8.65

8.56

KES/UGX

30.05

29.97

KES/TZS

19.01

18.93

1.44

1.43

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

2nd July 2013

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The graph below depicts the Bollinger band study of the USDKES pair. The
indicator shows volatility of the pair of the currencies. It is an analysis tool that provides a more in depth view of
the state of a trend.

Source: Bloomberg

Daily Market Note

Genghis Index:
Large-Cap Index
Table 9: Genghis Index Performance
Genghis Large-Cap Index
Indicator
Previous
Price Index Performance (%)
0.15%
Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn)
1,289.16
No. of Shares Traded (000)
35,127
P/E Ratio
12.87

Current
-0.05%
1,287.58
35,516
12.87

% Change

Genghis Mid-Cap Index

Indicator
Previous
Price Index Performance (%)
0.26%

Current
0.92%

% Change

Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn)

169.57

170.706

0.67%

No. of Shares Traded (000)

P/E Ratio

878
10.33

3,629
10.33

313.49%

Today
-0.80%
12.972
245
11.34

% Change

Genghis Small-Cap Index

Indicator
Previous
Price Index Performance
-0.28%
Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn)
13.011
No. of Shares Traded (000)
111
P/E Ratio
11.34

Source: Genghis Capital

-0.12%
1.11%

-0.30%
120.96%

The Large Cap index experienced a decline of 0.05%

down from yesterdays gain of 0.15%. Market Cap
continued to decline by shedding 0.12% to 1.287Tn.
Despite most large cap counters declining in price,
Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd (NSE: MSC) registered the best
performance in the index gaining 1.22% in value; vwapKes.4.15.
The worst performing counter in the Index was Kenya
Power & Lighting Co. Ltd (NSE: KPLC) experiencing a
2.08% decline.
Mid-Cap Index

The Mid Cap index remained the days best

performer, gaining 0.92%. Market capitalization in the
section stood at Kes.170.71Bn; a gain of 0.67% from
last trading session of Kes. 169.57Bn.
E.A. Portland Cement (NSE: EAPC) was the indexs
best performer with a 6.73% gain.
The worst performing counter in this Index was TPS
Eastern Africa Ltd (NSE: TPSE) with a 4.66% decline:
vwap; 46.00. The counter experienced profit taking
activities after yesterdays boisterous climb in value
by 7.22%

Error! Not a valid link.

Small-Cap Index

The Small Cap index shrunk by 0.80%. Market

capitalization in the section stood at Kes.12.97Bn; a
0.30% decrease from last trading session of
Kes.13.011Bn.
Unga Group Ltd (NSE: UNGA) was the indexs best
performer with a 5.63% jump in value to Kes. 15.95.
The worst performing counter in the market as well
as in Index remained as Olympia Capital Holdings
(NSE: OCH) with a 7.23% decline owing to their dismal
end-of-year results.

Daily Market Note

Total
Shares Outstanding
40,000,000,000
790,774,356
3,702,777,020
2,950,259,818
5,431,536,000
287,077,133
362,959,275
3,492,369,900
157,118,572
100,000,000
495,275,000
2,198,361,456
163,037,108
358,997,784
273,684,211
633,024,000
1,530,000,000
461,615,483

VWAP
6.35
324.00
31.50
37.50
15.80
283.00
210.00
15.50
300.00
565.00
64.00
15.00
169.00
53.00
65.50
14.10
4.15
9.95

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00
British-American Investments Co.(Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10
KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00
CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00
Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50
Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50
Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS
TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50
National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00
Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
Liberty Kenya Holdings Ltd Ord.1.00
Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00
E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00
Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00
E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50
Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00
Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00
Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

284,789,128
2,150,000,000
1,471,761,200
54,450,000
2,179,615,440
604,947,068
600,000,000
273,950,284
148,210,640
582,709,440
280,000,000
265,426,614
235,750,000
515,270,364
96,000,000
90,000,000
33,980,265
253,125,000
228,055,500
74,059,026
175,028,706
19,525,446
208,084,296

60.50
8.00
8.80
234.00
4.90
21.00
16.15
32.50
46.00
13.50
22.00
19.70
25.50
11.25
53.00
55.50
140.00
15.35
12.70
27.00
16.40
115.00
9.55

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

I&M Holdings Ltd Ord 1.00
Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS
Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00
Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00
Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00
Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00
Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00
The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS
Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00
Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS

5,728,314
8,756,320
19,599,999
278,342,393
60,000,000
23,727,000
75,708,873
22,279,616
1,200,000
210,000,000
58,500,000

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS
Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00
Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00
Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS
Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

3,912,000
16,078,500
14,393,106
40,000,000
35,403,790
12,868,124

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05
East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00
Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50
Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00
Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50
Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00
The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00
Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50
British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00
ARM Cement Ltd Ord 1.00
KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50
Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00
NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00
CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00
Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50
Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00
Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.
254,000
256,211
116,637
110,635
85,818
81,243
76,221
54,132
47,136
56,500
31,698
32,975
27,553
19,027
17,926
8,926
6,350
4,593
1,287,581

23,658,600
130,300
4,259,600
919,300
658,000
4,600
0
5,179,900
13,700
700
15,400
153,600
31,900
53,500
57,700
86,200
229,900
62,700
35,515,600

-0.78%
-0.31%
0.80%
0.00%
0.64%
1.07%
0.00%
0.32%
0.00%
-2.08%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.59%
0.95%
0.00%
-2.08%
1.22%
0.00%
-0.05%

0.44
13.46
3.26
4.11
1.61
26.60
12.17
1.84
15.90
32.71
2.51
1.28
14.75
5.87
9.90
2.36
1.32
3.58
8.54

0.31
8.75
1.25
1.90
1.00
12.50
10.50
0.50
10.00
32.50
0.50
0.60
1.90
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
4.69

15.91
28.83
10.74
10.16
11.30
11.32
17.09
9.21
19.62
16.81
27.49
11.84
11.73
9.37
6.36
7.33
3.33
3.14
12.87

Dividend
Yield - %
4.43%
2.26%
3.57%
4.55%
5.49%
4.15%
5.05%
2.95%
3.21%
5.91%
0.72%
3.96%
1.10%
1.82%
0.00%
2.89%
11.36%
2.22%
3.65%

17,230
17,200
12,951
12,741
10,680
12,704
9,690
8,903
6,818
7,867
6,160
5,229
6,012
5,797
5,088
4,995
4,757
3,885
2,896
2,000
2,870
2,245
1,987
170,706

1,800
205,100
1,169,700
0
1,112,000
24,200
325,700
2,300
100
0
26,900
527,600
78,100
2,100
2,100
100
0
147,600
2,500
0
900
0
0
3,628,800

0.83%
-1.23%
-1.12%
0.00%
5.38%
0.00%
1.25%
1.56%
-4.66%
0.00%
0.00%
2.87%
0.99%
2.74%
0.00%
6.73%
0.00%
6.60%
-0.78%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.92%

2.21
1.40
-4.26
35.32
0.64
1.79
4.00
1.66
3.60
0.18
1.49
1.03
3.22
1.72
7.27
-9.09
11.46
1.74
1.72
2.56
-0.32
10.11
0.69
3.48

0.60
0.10
0.00
7.00
0.10
0.00
0.40
0.40
1.30
0.00
0.20
0.30
1.40
0.40
3.00
0.00
5.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
5.05
0.30
1.20

30.09
5.96
-2.43
7.47
8.20
12.15
4.28
19.58
14.44
75.00
14.09
19.32
7.84
7.24
8.12
-6.16
12.22
8.65
8.14
11.82
-53.28
10.98
13.84
10.33

0.90%
1.20%
0.00%
2.65%
1.90%
0.00%
2.34%
1.23%
2.50%
0.00%
0.95%
1.51%
5.54%
3.21%
5.08%
0.00%
3.57%
6.64%
7.14%
0.00%
0.00%
4.55%
3.14%
2.35%

95.00
227.00
80.00
5.25
21.50
54.50
15.95
23.00
490.00
2.45
9.00

544
1,988
1,568
1,461
1,290
1,293
1,208
512
588
515
527

130,600
0
700
3,000
9,200
700
88,500
6,900
0
4,800
0

0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-1.87%
-1.15%
0.00%
5.63%
-3.16%
0.00%
-5.77%
0.00%

8.45
93.74
19.35
0.68
6.34
5.63
2.81
7.48
84.86
-0.59
-0.38

0.00
57.50
3.75
0.25
1.10
1.25
0.75
0.55
7.50
0.00
0.00

53.02
2.56
4.44
7.79
3.39
9.95
5.57
3.48
5.54
-4.58
-23.68

0.00
23.96%
4.36%
4.72%
5.12%
2.23%
4.79%
2.12%
1.60%
0.00%
0.00%

135.00
27.25
13.00
3.85
3.75
3.00

528
438
187
154
133
39

0
0
0
200
0
0

0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-7.23%
0.00%
0.00%

19.93
1.36
-11.80
0.38
0.37
0.04

7.50
1.25
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00

6.37
20.59
-1.04
13.68
10.68
6
75.00

5.91%
4.46%
0.00%
1.92%
0.00%
0.00%

Total Shares Traded Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Daily Market Note

Muammar Ismaily, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774750 | Email: mismaily@genghis-capital.com

Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774750 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Florence Kimaiyo, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774750 | Email: fkimaiyo@genghis-capital.com
Carol Matu, Head Dealer | Tel: +254 20 2774789 | Email: cmatu@genghis-capital.com
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com

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Capital Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution
recommending the purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in
the document are solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made
every effort to provide accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied
warranty of any kind as to its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any
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