Italian WiMAX Observatory presentation

Luis Ronda
lronda@codiumnetworks.com

Codium Networks
Business Consulting Services
2009 May

www.codiumnetworks.com/BCS
Agenda

Real case comparative 2.5 Ghz and 3.5 Ghz

Conclusions and future challenges

LTE vs Mobile WiMAX

Competences of Codium

Annex
Our hands on experience of 2.5 Ghz vs 3.5 Ghz shows …
Real case comparative 2.5 Ghz and 3.5 Ghz

• One of the clearest opportunities we have had to analyze the coverage • The population covered was in north west of
off identical
id ti l base
b stations
t ti transmitting
t itti in
i the
th 2,5
2 5 Ghz
Gh and
d in
i the
th 3,5Ghz
3 5Gh Spain
S i
is shown below • It was a small town
• They were both oriented towards the same population, had the
identical orientation, and both were placed in the same physical
location Covered
population

5km

2 Base estations with identical

• Physical location
• Orientation

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… that using 3,5 Ghz will lead to 30% more BS in rural or semi
urban geotypes, but no difference in urban geotypes
Real case comparative 2.5 Ghz and 3.5 Ghz

• We adjusted the RF power to obtain a similar coverage for a 2 Mbps bandwidth

• What we found out is that we needed a power increase of +6dB to get the same coverage
• Applying RF empirical laws, and our experience on the field ,we assume that this increase in power demands at least 30%
more Base Stations in 3,5 Ghz than in 2.5 Ghz in rural or semiurban deployments to obtain the same coverage quality
• We don´t think this “rule of thumb” applies to urban environments where capacity and not geographic reach is the main
challenge
g

Map of areas of data speed (in Mbps) coverage

2 Mbps

2 5 GHz
2.5 1 Mbps 3.5 GHz
<1 Mbps

+ 6 dB
increase

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In some scenarios 2.6 Ghz might be a better investment than
3.5Ghz and will probably attract more players to the market …
Conclusions and future challenges

Europe is opening 900 1,800 2.1

2.6 Ghz 3.5 Ghz
Mhz Mhz Ghz
th 2.6
the 2 6 Ghz
Gh band
b d GSM DCS 3G Bandwidth
190 Mhz
2500Mhz –2690Mhz
FWA
ITALIAN MARKET

In Italy we expect at
Incumbents Fixed WiMAX
l
leastt 3 types
t off and 2G,
2G 3G
players interested in operators New entrants • In order to gain
the 2.6 Ghz band • Bandwidth • Greenfield more bandwidth
hungry will likely operators and hedge
try to grab a interested in themselves
national band t i th
entering the 4G
market

Technical view Comercial view

1 • 2.6 Ghz is LTE compatible • The use of different bands /

• The European Union is
forcing the opening of the
2.6 Ghz band in all
European countries to cope
with future demand and
allow for technical
innovation
technologies should be
2 • Mobile WiMAX in 2.6 Ghz has a better seamless for end user
y
industrial critical mass and ecosystem • Spectrum
p is a scarce resource
in B.S. and terminals than 3.5 Ghz and pricing should reflect this
through bandwidth
3 • 2.5 Ghz propagates better in rural and management & pay-per-use
semi urban geotypes and therefore
semi-urban • New services will create new
needs and ARPU increase
needs less CAPEX in these places

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… and we expect new markets will surely provision 4G mobile
WiMAX devices & systems
Conclusions and future challenges
sion layer
ss and
transmiss
Acces

• During the last months we have seen • …however major • … and we are seeing Asian’s
announcements of investment manufacturers still keep major manufacturers taking
the challenge and selling
t

reduction
d ti iin M Mobile
bil WiMAX…
WiMAX producing
d i iin ever
increasing numbers… Mobile WiMAX

• We are seeing that the Public Safety Applications:

Portable SPOT
Security cameras
Terminal

PCs fixed –
WiMAX ecosystem is getting nomadics WiFi-WiMAX
cheaper and cheaper
• Most used terminals are Machine to
yer

CPE USB Dongles,

CPE, Dongles mobile Laptops – machine Intel is
Device / T

netbooks –
lay

“dongles” -
phones… machines Public Safety Applications: manufacturing
• … although new types of Alerts & alarms laptop embedded
terminals like M2M or WiFi- Agendas,
Mobile Wimax
WiMAX-4G
WiMAX 4G cloud routers will blackberry,
ipods
y,
Agriculture control enabled chipsets
probably boom in the market

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We think the 2 leading 4G technologies are: Mobile WiMAX and
LTE…
LTE vs mobile WiMAX

Main trends Descripción

Real average Internet  Promise of maximum

• Internet speed is the fundamental value of new
speed (3-6+Mbps)
wireless speed in a cellular  REAL and IP mobile networks together with their
environment convergence in radio convergence with IP technology
- Growing demand in mobile broadband is a
>6Mbps
market reality
6Mbps WiMAX Mobile WiMAX - More and more spectrum is being licensed
Fixed wireles 4G Móvil from the European Governments for the
(FWA) MIMO OFDMA mobile
bil telecom
l usage
Beamforming
• The 2 main 4G standards are converging
towards a common standard 95% technically
similar
3Mbps
b • MIMO and OFDMA technologies are imposed
UMTS / as compulsory in order to improve real speeds
HSPA 3G in mobile WiMAX as well as in LTE
1,5Mbps
• Mobile WiMAX is already in the market,
1Mbps EVDO whereas
h LTE is
i expected
t d over the
th nextt few
f
GRPS EDGE years
• Some Mobile WiMAX manufacturers are
<2007 2008 ‐ 2011 >2012 offering future compatibility with LTE

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… but it is not clear who will win the race, we think by 2015 a
majority of the market could be LTE and a large part Mobile WiMAX
LTE vs mobile WiMAX

Mobile WiMAX LTE

Time to market From 2008 From 2011 ??

Data handling
g Full IP Full IP

Voice handling Challenging Somewhat challenging

Number
N b and d weight
i ht off BS
Medium Theoretically High
manufacturers
Actual critical mass High Theoretically High

Terminal manufacturers Medium Too early

Terminal diversity Low to medium Early stages

Helps migrate from legacy
networks No No

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Codium competences: 4G radio access networks integration
together with specialized business consulting for 4G operators
Codium competences

4G radio
access systems Planning and
integration &, implementation
maintenance • Wireless network planning and
spectrum engineering
• Wholesale service development
• Procurement and outsourcing
• Operational structure design
• Wireless networks rollout
• Project and program management
4G telecom
From 2004 • Launch, planning & management
• Organization design
• Business process development
From 2008 business consulting
• Network outsourcing
• Operations outsourcing

• Codium Networks has been active in the Strategy consulting

4G/WiMAX/LTE arena for more than 5 years
• Its shareholders and senior staff have an
impressive track-record in the wireless
telecom market
• Codium has designed and rolled-out
multiple 4G networks
networks, thus its knowledge
has been gained in the field
www.codiumnetworks.com
www.codiumnetworks.com/BCS
• Recognizing a market need
expressed by customers, Codium
launched a Business Consulting
Services unit to offer management
ad hoc consulting advice to
4G/WiMAX/LTE telecom operators
• Sales & marketing advise
• Business planning
• License support and acquisition
• Market opportunity assessment and
scenarios
• Due diligence
g for investors and
management
• Raising funds, mergers and acquisitions
• Regulatory and spectrum management
• Investments technical review
• Industrial affairs
• Technological roadmaps and state of the
art of terminals, base stations, devices
• Roaming and interoperability checks

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Long experience on the 4G field and the telecom market
Codium competences

Business service consulting

Some of Codium
Codium’s
s recent clientele
experience

Honduras)
El Salvador)

io de Obras
as (Chile)

Kanitt (Argentina)

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Case study: support to win a license and develop a South
European Mobile WiMAX operator
Codium competences

A group of telecom
investors p planned to The Regulator
g chose
We advised the group
apply for a new our customer’s bid as
in winning the license
WiMAX license in the the most competitive,
and later on helped,
3.5Ghz band in order due to the “solid
as technology
gy p
partner,,
to launch a Mobile business plan and
to develop their
WiMAX operator for most sound network
operational platform
fixed/mobile design”
broadband services

• We helped in shaping the regulatory strategy for the group and

Regulatory advice
ect

accompanied it to meetings with the regulator in an effort to favorably

impress the authorities as to the solidity of the bid
Consultiing proje
4 maiin tasks

• We developed several business-case scenarios followed by the drafting of

Business planning the definitive business plan to be used as the business ‘base case’

• Among the tasks

tasks, we carried out a comprehensive and highly detailed RF
Spectrum planning Plan which according to the regulator was “head and shoulders” above
those of the competition
• We advised the group on writing the bidding document, drafting the main
Bid documentation parts and working
p g together
g with the customer on the final version to be
submitted

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Case Study: Business planning for the largest Mobile WiMAX project
in Southern Europe with >500 BS1 and 500,000 initial customers
Codium competences

(1) BS: Base Stations

We developed the
We pproposed
p a study
y
A WiMAX operator business plan
of the required
with a national license appropriate to the
deployment (initially
wanted to dimension required investment
more than 500 BS)
its network based on and ROI,, based on the
based on a business
both ROI and license available market as
plan with 500.000
award considerations well as the regulatory
initial customers
requirements

• Developed, based on market estimates, potential revenues,

Business plan
sks

operating costs, CAPEX investments in network

oject tas

• We designed the BS deployment plan optimizing coverage

Deployment plan based on demand , revenue targets and CAPEX restrictions

• Helped selecting the best technology vendor for our

Main pro

Supportt on ttechnology
S h l
procurement
• We undertook an exhaustive study of the state of the
Help
p on terminal selection
customer based on KPI s and benchmarking parametres
considered crucial
y vis-à-vis terminal devices to best serve the
industry
marketed services of our customer, considering their future
evolution, etc.

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 Annex

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La Administración está sacando al mercado más banda ancha
móvil y estudia el formato que dará a las licencias y licitación
El mercado de banda ancha móvil > España

900 Mhz 1.800 Mhz 2,6 Ghz 3,5 Ghz

Imagen del Ancho de banda
espectro GSM DCS Fija
190 Mhz
rural 2500Mhz –2690Mhz inalámbrica

Recomendación UE
2x70 FDD + 1x50 TDD
Licencias
S S’
Usos
U Ideal según CODIUM
actuales para disponibilidad actual
y evolución futura
4 x45 TDD

• La Administración pretende
transformar las actuales
Intención concesiones de telefonía móvil
de la
GSM (rural) y DCS para permitir
Administra el uso de servicios de tercera
ción generación
• Es decir, pretende facilitar el uso
de estas bandas para dar banda
ancha móvil además de voz
A B C D
• Se pretende transformar las
• La nueva banda de actuales licencias de redes fijas
frecuencias pretende inalámbricas para incorporar
ampliar el espectro
mayor flexibilidad,
fl ibilid d y movilidad
ilid d .
disponible Por tanto la banda ancha móvil
fundamentalmente para
banda ancha móvil
• Pensamos se considerarán
licencia autonómicas

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