DAILY I FOREX REPORT 19TH JULY 2013

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HEADLINES
Dollar Rebounds As Markets Digest Uneventful Bernanke Speech Dollar And S&P 500 Volatility Risk Not Defused By Bernanke Testimony

British Pound Jumps on Improved June Retail Sales Figures

THE TAKEAWAY: GBP Retail Sales (JUN) > +0.2% as expected, from +2.1% (m/m), +2.1% versus +1.6% expected, from +2.3% (revised higher from +2.1%) (y/y) > GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (JUN) > +0.2% versus +0.3% expected, from +2.1% (m//m), +2.2% versus +1.7% expected, from +2.1% (revised higher from +1.9%) (y/y) > GBPUSD BULLISH

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3120 TGT 1.3100/1.3080 SL 1.3150

BUY USDJPY BELOW 99.80 TGT 100.00/100.20 SL 99.50

The British Pound is rallying this morning on the back of an overall stronger than expected June Retail Sales report for the United Kingdom. Although only ranked as a medium importance event on the Economic Calendar, the UK Retail Sales report is equivalent to the US Advance Retail Sales report; both are proxies for consumption trends in economies whose headline GDP is comprised of 62% and 72% consumption, respectively.

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5250 TGT 1.5280/1.5300 SL 1.5230

Overall, the tone of the report was improved, with both the headline and core yearly figures beating estimates. In terms of comparison, the headline Retail Sales figure held up quite well once stripped to the core (ex Auto Fuel), actually improving by +0.1% over the core. Certainly these figures can justify the recent uptick in UK inflation figures.

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0030 (BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 45 (BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>63(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>56(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0138(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>55(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun Jul 14

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JUN) NZD Performance Services Index (JUN) GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (JUL) GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (JUL) AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (JUN) AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUN) CNY Business Climate Index (2Q) CNY Real GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q) CNY Entrepreneur Confidence Index (2Q)

Medium

0.7%

0.3%

22:30

Medium

55.0

56.0

23:01

Low

0.3%

1.2%

23:01

Medium

4.8%

2.7%

Mon Jul 15

01:30

Low

4.0%

0.0%

01:30

Low

7.1%

0.2%

02:00

Low

120.6

125.6

02:00

High

7.6%

7.7%

7.7%

02:00

Low

117.0

122.4

02:00

CNY GDP (YoY) (2Q)

High

7.5%

7.5%

7.7%

02:00

CNY Real GDP (QoQ) (2Q) CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN) CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUN) CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUN) CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUN) CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN) USD Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Banking Regulation in Washington

High

1.7%

1.8%

1.6%

02:00

Medium

9.3%

9.3%

9.4%

02:00

Medium

8.9%

9.1%

9.2%

02:00

Medium

20.1%

20.2%

20.4%

02:00

Medium

12.7%

12.7%

12.6%

02:00

Medium

13.3%

12.9%

12.9%

07:15

Low

0.1%

0.1%

-0.3%

07:15

Low

0.2%

0.2%

-0.2%

12:00

Low

12:30

USD Empire Manufacturing (JUL) USD Advance Retail Sales (JUN) USD Retail Sales Less Autos (JUN) USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (JUN) USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (JUN) CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) USD Business Inventories (MAY) USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update NZD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q) NZD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q) AUD RBA Policy Meeting - July Minutes JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JUN) EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (JUN) GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN) GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN) GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN) GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAY) GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) GBP Retail Price Index (JUN)

Low

7.84

12:30

High

0.7%

0.6%

12:30

Medium

0.4%

0.3%

12:30

Low

0.3%

0.3%

12:30

Low

0.4%

0.3%

13:00

Medium

3.6%

14:00

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

21:00

Low

22:45

Medium

0.3%

0.4%

22:45

Medium

0.8%

0.9%

Tue Jul 16

01:30

High

04:00

Low

49.20%

06:00

Low

-5.9%

08:30

Low

-0.2%

-0.3%

08:30

Low

4.2%

2.2%

08:30

Low

0.1%

0.0%

08:30

Medium

1.9%

1.2%

08:30

Low

0.1%

0.1%

08:30

Medium

1.1%

0.8%

08:30

Low

2.8%

2.6%

08:30

Medium

-0.1%

0.2%

08:30

High

3.0%

2.7%

08:30

High

2.3%

2.2%

08:30

Low

250

250

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (JUN) GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (JUN) GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (JUN) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN F) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUN F) EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL) EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (JUL) EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL) CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (MAY) USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JUN) USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN) USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (JUN) USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JUN) USD Total Net TIC Flows (MAY) USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAY) USD Industrial Production (JUN) USD Capacity Utilization (JUN) USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUN) USD NAHB Housing Market Index (JUL)

Low

0.0%

0.2%

08:30

Low

3.4%

3.1%

08:30

Low

3.4%

3.1%

09:00

Medium

0.1%

0.1%

09:00

High

1.6%

1.6%

09:00

High

1.2%

1.2%

09:00

Low

16.2B

16.1B

09:00

Low

12.0B

14.9B

09:00

Medium

30.6

09:00

Medium

8.6

09:00

High

40

38.5

12:30

Low

1.0%

-2.4%

12:30

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

High

1.6%

1.4%

12:30

High

1.6%

1.7%

12:30

Low

233.267

12:30

Low

233.25

232.95

13:00

Low

$12.7B

13:00

Medium

-$37.3B

13:15

Medium

0.003

13:15

Low

0.777

0.776

13:15

Medium

0.20%

0.10%

14:00

Medium

51.0

52.0

18:15

USD Fed's George Speaks on Economic Conditions and Agriculture JPY Bank of Japan June 10-11 meeting minutes AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (MAY) CNY Conference Board China June Leading Economic Index JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN F) GBP Bank of England Minutes GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUN) GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUN) GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/(YoY)) (MAY) GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/(YoY)) (MAY) GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAY) GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (MAY) CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 12) CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (MAY) USD Housing Starts (JUN) USD Housing Starts (MoM) (JUN) USD Building Permits (JUN) USD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN) CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (JUL 17) USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to House USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 12)

Low

23:50

High

Wed Jul 17

00:30

Medium

0.6%

02:00

Low

06:00

Medium

-12.4%

08:30

High

08:30

Medium

4.5%

4.5%

08:30

Medium

-8.0K

-8.6K

08:30

Low

1.4%

1.3%

08:30

Low

1.1%

0.9%

08:30

Medium

7.80%

7.80%

08:30

Medium

82K

24K

09:00

Medium

2.2

09:00

Low

2.0%

09:00

Low

-6.6%

11:00

Low

-4.00%

12:30

Low

14.91B

12:30

Low

950K

914K

12:30

Medium

3.9%

6.8%

12:30

Low

1000K

974K

12:30

Medium

1.5%

-3.1%

14:00

High

1.00%

1.00%

14:00

High

14:30

Low

-9874K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 12) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 12) USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 12) USD Fed's Raskin Speaks at Exchequer Club in Washington USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUN) AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAY) NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (JUL) AUD NAB Business Confidence (2Q) CNY China June Property Prices AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (JUN) AUD RBA FX Transactions Other (JUN) AUD RBA FX Transactions Govt. (JUN) JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (JUN) JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (JUN) CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JUN) CHF Exports (MoM) (JUN) CHF Imports (MoM) (JUN) EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAY) GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-2634K

14:30

Low

3038K

14:30

Low

0.002

16:30

Low

18:00

High

22:00

Low

-1.7%

Thu Jul 18

00:00

Low

0.3%

01:00

Low

123.9

01:00

Low

0.20%

01:30

Medium

01:30

Low

01:30

Low

490M

01:30

Low

33M

03:30

Low

05:30

Low

2.6%

05:30

Low

5.1%

06:00

Medium

2.22B

06:00

Low

1.7%

06:00

Low

0.9%

08:00

Low

19.5B

08:00

Low

15.3B

08:30

Low

0.2%

2.1%

08:30

Medium

1.6%

2.1%

08:30

Low

0.4%

2.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUN) CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAY) USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 12) USD Continuing Claims (JUL 6) USD API Monthly Statistical Report USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to Senate USD Philadelphia Fed. (JUL) USD Leading Indicators (JUN) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 12) NZD Net Migration s.a. (JUN) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 12) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 12) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 12) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 12) EUR G20 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank's Deputies Meeting in Russia EUR G20 Labour Ministers Meeting in Russia EUR G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Russia

Medium

1.8%

1.9%

12:30

Low

0.2%

12:30

Medium

360K

12:30

Low

2977K

14:00

Low

14:00

High

14:00

Medium

6.8

12.5

14:00

Medium

0.003

0.001

14:30

Low

82.0

22:45

Low

1740

23:50

Medium

973.1B

23:50

Medium

-14.1B

23:50

Low

3.5B

23:50

Low

486.9B

Fri Jul 19

High

High

High

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (JUN) NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUN) JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAY) JPY Leading Index (MAY F) JPY Coincident Index (MAY F) EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (JUN) EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (JUN)

Low

-0.6%

03:00

Medium

2.4%

04:30

Medium

1.2%

0.4%

05:00

Medium

110.5

05:00

Low

105.9

06:00

Low

-0.1%

-0.3%

06:00

Low

0.6%

0.2%

08:30

GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUN) GBP PSNB ex Interventions (JUN) GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (JUN) CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (JUN) CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUN) CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (JUN) CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) (JUN) CAD Consumer Price Index (JUN)

Medium

3.1B

08:30

Medium

9.0B

8.8B

08:30

Medium

9.3B

10.5B

12:30

Medium

0.1%

0.2%

12:30

High

1.3%

0.7%

12:30

Medium

-0.3%

0.2%

12:30

High

1.3%

1.1%

12:30

Low

0.1%

12:30

Low

0.0%

12:30

Low

123.0

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