Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company d does oes not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer er to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Broking Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Highlights
US Core CPI remained unchanged at 0.2 percent in last month month. German ZEW Economic Sentiment declined to 36.3-mark in July. US Industrial Production was at 0.3 percent in the month of June June. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of mixed economic data from US along with unexpected decline in German economic sentiments data in yesterdays trade. Further, investors are waiting for the statement from Federal eral Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke which will address to US Congress in todays evening session. US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.2 percent in June. CPI was at 0.5 percent in June as against a rise of 0.1 percent in May. Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Term Purchases declined to $27.2 billion in May from earlier fall of $21.8 billion a month ago. Capacity Utilization Rate rose by 77.8 percent in June as compared to rise of 77.7 percent in May. Industrial Production was at 0.3 percent in the last month. Indian government raised the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for sectors. FDI in telecommunication increased to 100 percent from percent. Further, insurance sector FDI capital has been enl enlarged to percent from the current 26 percent. FDI in defense was kept at percent. 13 74 49 49

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 16, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5955.3 19851.2 15451.85 1676.3 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 106.00 1283.80 19.92

-1.3 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.5 -

1.6 2.1 1.0 1.4

2.5 3.5 0.9 3.0 -

13.9 8.5 21.4 23.8 2.0 8.5 66.3 19.9 -19.3 -27.0

7.0 29.8 -0.1 2.4 3.0 4.0

3.8 22.1 9.6 7.7 -6.1 -7.9

7005.00 102.09

0.9 0.0 -

3.7

-10.7 -

-8.2 1.8

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.7 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of statement from FOMC member George to see steady growth in the economy of around 2 percent for current year along with ease in concerns over pullback of stimulus measures from Fed exerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched an intra intra-day low of 82.53 and closed at 82.64 on Tuesday.

4.9

3.2

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on July 16, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

82.64 59.29 59.30 59.30

-0.7 0.9 -1.25 1.25 -1.27 1.27

-2.5 1.3 -1.91 -1.95

2.3 -3.1 2.88 2.89

4.0 -7.2 7.17 7.17

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.9 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increasing the short-term term borrowing costs and restricting the funds available for banks. Further, expectation that RBI will sell 120 billion rupees in bonds market supported an upside in the currency currency. However, sharp upside in currency was capped on account of outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt markets. . The currency touched an intra-day high of 59.09 and closed at 59.29 on Tuesday. day. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs. Rs.5577.60 crores th ($928.77 million) as on 16 July 2013. Year to date basis, net ca capital th inflows stood at Rs.66,600.60 crores ($12,572.10 12,572.10 million) till 16 July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect the Rupee to trade on a mixed note were downside can be witnessed on account of weak global and domestic markets coupled with stronger DX. However, on the other hand appreciation in the currency will be seen on the back of i increase in FDI limit in 13 sectors.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for July 17, 2013 Support 58.90/58.70 Resistance 59.50/59.70

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 0.8 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX.. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of unexpected decline in German economic sentiments data. The Euro touched an intra-day day high of 1.3 1.3174 and closed at 1.3161 against the dollar on Tuesday. Italian Trade Balance was at a surplus of 3.90 billion Euros in May as against a surplus of 2.03 billion Euros a month ago. German ZEW Economic Sentiment declined by 2.2 points to o 36.3 36.3-mark in July from earlier rise of 38.5-level level in June. European ZEW Economic Sentiment rose by 2.2 points to 32.8-level level in current month with respect to rise of 30.6-mark mark in June. Trade Balance was at a surplus of 14.6 billion Euros in May as compared d to earlier surplus of 15.2 billion Euros a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to trade lower on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX will exert downside pressure in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 77.50/77.30 78.0/78.20 valid for July 17, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on July 16, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3161 78.03 77.8 77.9

0.8 0.1 -0.51 -0.43

3.0 -1.6 0.11 0.12

-1.4 -1.7 1.38 1.45

7.1 -13.3 15.40 15.48

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
GBP (% change) The Sterling Pound appreciated around 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session taking cues from weakness in the DX DX. Further, favorable economic data from the country acted as appositive factor factor. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5168 and closed at 1.5 1.5159 against dollar on Tuesday. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.9 percent in June as against a rise of 2.7 percent in May. Producer Price Index (PPI) Input rose by 0.2 percent in June from earlier fall of 0.6 percent a month ago. Retail Price Index (RPI) gained around 3.3 percent nt in last month as compared to 3.1 percent in May. Core CPI was at 2.3 percent in June with respect to 2.2 percent a month ago. House Price Index (HPI) gained by 2.9 percent in May when compared to 2.6 percent in earlier month. PPI Output was at 0.1 percent in the month of June. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX will act as a negative factor for the Pound. Additionally, expectations of increase in Claimant Count Change data will exert more downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for July 17, 2013 Support 89.20/89.0 Resistance 89.80/90.0 as on July 16, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5159 89.613 89.56

0.40 -1.35 1.35 -0.95 0.95

2.0 0.39 -0.31

-3.5 -0.88 -0.61

-3.1 4.18 4.26

89.56

-0.96 0.96

-0.39

-0.61

4.28

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 17, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.8 percent in the yesterdays trade on account of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which led to increase in demand for the currency. 99.09 against The Yen touched an intra-day high of 98.88 and closed at 99. dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For intra-day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to ap appreciate, taking cues rise in risk aversion in the global markets, which could lead to rise in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for July 17, 2013 Support 59.40/59.20 Resistance 59.80/60.0 Last Prev day as on July 16, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

99.09 0.5978 59.75

-0.8 -0.66 -0.43

-2.0 0.62 -0.10

5.3 -2.21 -1.57

25.4 -14.40 -14.64

59.73

-0.40

-0.20

-1.63

-14.63

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on July 17, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Claimant Count Change MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes MPC Official Bank Rate Votes Average Earnings Index 3m/y Unemployment Rate German 10-y Bond Auction Building Permits Housing Starts Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Member Raskin Speaks Beige Book

Japan UK UK UK UK UK Euro US US US US US US

5:20am 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 10:00pm 11:30pm

-7.5K 2-0-7 0-0-9 1.4% 7.8% 1.00M 0.96M -1.9M -

-8.6K 3-0-6 0-0-9 1.3% 7.8% 0.99M 0.91M -9.9M -

Medium High High High Medium Medium Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium

www.angelbroking.com