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Reliability-Based Design of Transmission Line Structures - Direct Approach Using the Inverse Reliability Method

Hong Li I and Gouri Bhuyan 2

Abstract

A reliability-based design procedure using the inverse reliability method is proposed in this paper for design of overhead transmission structures. The procedure allows direct and fast determination of design parameters such as wind span and pole groundline circumference, in order to meet pre-specified target reliabilities. Two design applications are illustrated: 1) calculation of the design wind span of a lattice steel suspension tower so that a target reliability is achieved in a compression performance criterion; and 2) determination of design wind span of an H-frame tangent wood pole structure to achieve target reliabilities associated with design criteria in tip deflection (serviceability criterion) and bending (ultimate design criterion). The advantages and implications of these approaches are discussed. Keywords: inverse reliability, structural analysis, wood pole, steel lattice tower, reliabilitybased design
Introduction

The main objective in engineering design is to ensure that the required performance can be met during service life. The performance of a designed system depends on the interaction of many intervening random variables, plus the designparameters that the designer has chosen on the basis of safety and serviceability criteria. Given the uncertainty associated with intervening variables, the performance criteria can only be satisfied within a certain probability. The objective of reliability-based design is to determine the design parameters needed so that the probability of performance, called reliability, will achieve the design criterion within a specified target level.

Structural& ReliabilityEngineer,PowertcchLabs. Inc., 12388-88thAve., Surrey,BC, Canada V3W 7R7; phone 604-590-7463, Fax 604-590-5347; hong.li@powertechlabs.com z SpecialistEngineer,PowertechLabs. Inc., 12388-88thAve., Surrey,BC, CanadaV3W 7R7; phone 604-590-7407, Fax 604-590-5347; gouri.bhuyan@powertechlabs.com 357
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If the design parameters are given, the reliability of a system can be evaluated for a certain condition and period of time through reliability assessment. This is a forward reliability problem. On the other hand, when the design parameters need to be determined in order to achieve pre-specified target reliability levels, the problem becomes one of inverse reliability. This inverse reliability problem defines the nature of reliability-based design. Reliability-based design has been studied and applied to overhead structure design for the last two decades (Peyrot et. al, 1984, Krishnasanmy, 1991, ASCE-74, 1991 and IEC 60826, 1991). Several methodologies have been proposed, including: 1) the Load/Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) format, in which the load factors and resistance factor are calibrated to meet target reliability, and 2) design nominal load with a certain return period and characteristic strength with a low exclusion limit, in which the load return period is used to specify indirectly the target annual reliability level. Traditionally, reliability-based design or LRFD design is implemented through a design equation containing load factors and resistance factor that are intended for meeting a specified reliability. However, the design engineers do not generally know the rationale behind the factors chosen and the reliability or safety level that is really achieved. If the nominal load has a return period of T years, and a strength exclusion limit of 10% is used as the characteristic strength, the achieved annual probability of failure is in the order of Pf = 1/2T. For example, if the return period were 50 years, the annual probability of failure would be in the order of 1.0%. Local weather statistics can be used to determine the nominal design load for a specified return period. Another method is that of inverse reliability, where the design parameters are directly calculated to achieve a specified target reliability. Using this approach, an engineer could work on a customized or case-by-case basis, taking into account local weather statistics with the assistance of reliability software. The desired performance criteria can be met with the corresponding target reliability. In this paper a direct approach, based on the inverse reliability method, is proposed for the reliability-based design of transmission structures. Two design applications will be demonstrated: 1. Calculation of the design wind span of a lattice steel suspension tower to achieve a target reliability associated with the compression performance criterion for a critical member; and Calculation of the design wind span of an H-frame tangent wood pole structure so that target reliabilities associated with design criteria in both deflection and bending can be achieved.

2.

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Review of Inverse Reliability

During the past few years, the inverse reliability method has been discussed both in the context of a single deterministic design parameter (Der Kiureghian et al, 1994) or in the context of multiple parameters associated with random variables (Li and Foschi, 1998). It has been shown through several applications that the inverse reliability method is superior to the traditional approach of trial-and-error, in which the forward reliability method is repeatedly applied to interpolate the design parameters meeting target reliability. The inverse reliability problem arises when it is necessary to find the values of design parameters that correspond to specified reliability levels. A general method was developed to approach the inverse reliability problem for either single or multiple design variables by Li and Foschi (1998). In general, these variables are also regarded as random, with corresponding mean values and standard deviations. The problem may include the determination of both the mean values and standard deviations, or the mean values alone when the coefficients of variation are specified, or the standard deviations when the mean values are given. A detailed description of the method is given elsewhere (Li and Foschi, 1998 and Li, 1999). The method for a single design parameter has been applied in this paper, using the framework described below. Suppose that the limit-state function G in the Standard Normal, uncorrelated space is G (U, d ) = g (X, d) ................................................................................................... (1)

where U is the random, Standard Normal vector with components u~.corresponding to the random variable vector Xwith components xi in the original, basic space, d is the design parameter. For a target reliability index 13, the inverse reliability problem can be stated as: Given: 13, Find: a design parameter d ....................................................................................... Subjectto: r n i n ( U r U ) = ~
2 and G(X,,d)=O

(2)

The mapping of Uinto X is achieved through the transformations

xi = Fi
-1

(q~(u,))

i = 1,2 ..... n ..................................................................... (3)

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where Ft is the cumulative distribution function for the variable xi, and qb(.) is the Standard Normal function. From reliability index [3, the probability of failure Pf and the reliability P~ can be estimated approximately as shown in (4) and (5), by use of the Standard Normal probability distribution function qb(.).

Pf = qb(-[3) ................................................................................................................
andPr: 1 -~[3)=~(~) .........................................................................................

(4) (5)

Two basic formulae were derived to iterate the design parameter for a given target reliability index [3. U =

-~ VvG ( V vG rV vG) I/2 G(U o, do )

........................................................................................

6)

d =d o

OG(Uo, d) )[
~d d~

.....................................................................................

7)

For an initial pair (do, Uo), and the corresponding gradient VvG(U, d)l uo.ao, (6) and (7) are used together to obtain both the vector U and the design parameter d by means of a Newton-Raphson iteration.
Case Studies

Case Study 1: Design of a Lattice Steel Tower

A typical suspension lattice steel tower was chosen for the case study (see Figure 1). Six conductors are attached and the leg member is considered as the critical component. It is assumed that the configuration and the member sizes of the tower are fixed. Wind span is chosen as the design parameter to reflect the desired target reliability. Compression force of the leg member is considered in the limit-state function for the reliability-based design, assuming that failure of the leg member will cause the failure of entire structure. The objective of this application is to find the design wind span so that the target reliability corresponding to the compression design criterion of the leg member will be achieved for two load cases during the service life.

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Figure 1: The suspension lattice steel tower

In reliability-based analysis, an analytical model formulated either as a close-form equation or as a computational program is needed to evaluate the effect of loads considered in the limit-state functions, such as deflection, bending moment and compression force. For this case study, it is assumed that the tower has a linear behavior in compression, thus the influence coefficient (effect of unit loads) can be used to calculate the structural response. To obtain the influence coefficient, structural analysis software ATADS (BPA, 2000) was used to calculate the effect (compression force of the leg member) of the unit vertical group loads and unit horizontal group loads as well as unit wind pressure. If a combined stress level due to applied vertical and transverse loads exceeds the compression capacity of the member, the structure will fail. For the reliability calculations, the limit state functions corresponding to compression failure of the leg member are written as follows, considering two load cases:

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Wind + ice: G = R A - effect o f ( T S + ( V + D ) S p + d+ P) ........................................ (8) Wind only: G = R A - effect o f ( TS + D S p + d + P) ................................................. (9) where: S= T= p = V= D= d= P= design wind span transverse load (function of wind velocity and/or ice thickness) per unit length of conductors ratio of weight span to wind span vertical load (function of ice thickness) per unit length of conductors dead load per unit length contributed by the weight of conductors dead load contributed by the weight of members wind pressure applied on the structure

RA = compression capacity The effect is the compression force of the leg member. Three random variables are considered: compression capacity RA, wind velocity, and ice thickness. For specified target reliability, the design wind span S can be calculated based on the algorithm described above. Statistics of wind velocity, ice thickness, and compression capacity (treated as random variables) are assumed and shown in Table 1 for this case study.

Component

Table 1: Statistics of Random Variables Mean COV

890 kN (200.0 kips) 78 km/h (44.7 mph) 43 km/h (26.7 mph) 8.6 mm (0.34 inch) 0.10 0.10 0.4 0.8

Type
Lognormal Gumbel Gumbel Gumbel

Compression capacity RA Extreme wind* Wind during ice Ice * * Annual maximum

The inverse reliability procedure was carried out for three target reliability levels, 13= 3.0, 2.5 and 2.0, corresponding to a probability of failure of 0.14%, 0.62% and 2.3% respectively, in a 50-year window. The results are shown in Table 2. The design is governed by the wind with ice case. The corresponding target reliability is achieved exactly, and the target reliability for the wind-only case is satisfied, thus providing a satisfactory design for both load cases. It should be noted that different design spans could be obtained if the weather statistics change due to change of tower location. Ideally, if the weather statistics for all design sites are available, such reliability-based design could lead to a nearly uniform design across the board.

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Table 2: Design Span and Achieved Reliabilit, Index Target Reliability Index (50 years) Wind Wind + only ice 3.0 2.5 2.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 Design Span Wind only 223m 733 (fi) 297m 976 (if) 380m 1249(ft) Wind + ice 106m 347 (~) 187m 614 (~) 307m 1008(~) Controlling Span 106m 347(fi) 187 m 614 (fl) 307 m 1008 (ft) Achieved Reliability Index Wind Wind + only ice 3.98 3.28 2.44 3.00 2.50 2.00

Case Study 2." Design of an H-frame Wood Structure

A typical tangent H-frame wood structure was chosen as a reference structure, with three conductors attached (see Figure 2). It is assumed that the configuration of the Hframe and the sizes of the poles are fixed. A critical section A at the bottom of the cross braces is considered in the design. If a combined stress level due to applied vertical and transverse load exceeds the bending strength capacity, the structure will fail. Wood poles are, in general, slender structures subjected to horizontal and vertical loads, and wood behaves nonlinearly in compression and brittle tension. This allowed the nonlinear finite element program POLE (Powertech Labs Inc. 1998) to be used in conjunction with the inverse reliability method to perform reliability-based design, taking the P-A effect into account. Two limit states corresponding to serviceability and ultimate design criteria were considered: Ultimate: GI = R - Effect o f (TS+(V+D) Sp +P) .................................................

(1 O)

Serviceability: G2 = Ao - Effect o f ( TS + (V+D) Sp +P) ....................................... (11) where: S = design wind span p = ratio of weight span to wind span T = transverse load (function of wind velocity and/or ice thickness) per unit length of conductors V = vertical load (function of ice thickness) per unit length of conductor D = dead load per unit length contributed by the weight of conductors P = wind pressure applied on the structure R = bending strength Ao = allowable tip deflection of the wood pole, assuming 2% of the height of the pole

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Figure 2: A typical tangent H-frame wood structure Three random variables are considered in the limit state functions: bending strength R, transverse load T (function of wind velocity), and vertical load V (ftmction of radial ice thickness). Mean, coefficient of variation and type of distribution of the bending strength are given in Table 3. Wind and ice statistics were used for the same location as Case Study 1 (see Table 1), but only the wind during ice load case was considered. Table 3: Statistics of Bending Strength Mean 45.5 MPa (6600 psi ) COV 0.15 Type Lognormal

Using the inverse reliability method, the reliability-based design was carried out for various target reliabilities for each design criterion. The results are shown in Table 4. For ultimate and serviceability limit states, two different target reliabilities are specified. The design is controlled by the ultimate limit state. The corresponding reliability index is achieved exactly, and the target reliability corresponding to serviceability is also satisfied.

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Table 4: Results (Wind with Ice Case Target Reliability Index (50 years)
,.Q

Design Span
e~

Achieved Reliability Index

.E
= O r..)

c13

'E Y~
3.00 2.50 2.00 2.16 1.63 1.11

3.0 2.5 2.0

2.0 1.5 1.0

163m 535 (ft) 239 m 785 (ft) 339 m 1111 fit)

184m 603 (ft) 262 m 861 (ft) 363 m 1193 (ft)

163 m 535 (ft) 239 m 785 fit) 339m l l l l (ft)

Discussion and Conclusions

An alternative design approach for transmission line structures using the inverse reliability method is proposed in this paper. Two case studies were carried out, one for a lattice tower structure mad one for an H-frame wood structure. Design span was chosen as the design parameter to reflect various target reliability levels. It should be noted that any other parameter could have been chosen, such as the groundline diameter of the wood pole or the compression capacity of a leg member of the steel tower when the span is fixed. In contrast to the traditional deterministic or reliabilitycalibrated factored design approach, the approach developed in this paper permits direct determination of the design parameter to meet desired performance. Since the desired performance is well defined by limit-state function and associated target reliability, the achieved performance will be transparent to the design engineers. The uncertainties involved in loads and material properties are automatically taken into account during the procedure. Line importance, local weather conditions, material properties, and multiple design criteria can be easily considered, allowing for a customized design. In addition, this reliability-based design approach offers the opportunity to use well-developed reliability theory and computer technology to complement structural mechanics and computational tools.
References

Advanced Tower Analysis and Design System (ATADS) Software, Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) ASCE-74. (1991). Guidelinesfor Transmission Line Structural Loading Der Kiureghian, A., Zhang, Y, and Li, C.C. (1994). "Inverse reliability problem", J. of Engineering Mechanics, ASCE, 120(5), p. 1154-1159.

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IEC 60826 - Design Criteria of Overhead Transmission Lines. (1991). (Also the previously published guidelines: Loading and Strength of Overhead Transmission Lines), IEC-TC11-Publication 826. Krishnasamy, S. G., Hathout, I. And Tabatabai, M. (1991). "Reliability-based design of overhead transmission structures- a critical review". Proc. Int. Conf. on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Electric Power Systems, London, UK, p. 86-91 Li, H. (1999). "An inverse reliability method and its applications in engineering design", Ph.D. thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada. Li, H. and Foschi, R.O. (1998). "An inverse reliability method and its application", Structural Safety, Elsevier, 20(3), p. 257-270. Peyrot, A.H. and Dagher, H.J. (1984). "Reliability-based design of transmission lines" Journal of structural engineering ASCE, Vol. 110, No. 11, p. 2758-2777. POLE: A Computer Program to Carry Out Reliability Analysis of Pole Structures. (1998). Powertech Labs.

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