COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY, FT. COLLINS EE 303, Fall Semester, 2004 Instructor: Prof.

Louis Scharf Homework 2 Solutions Walpole P29, Exercise 5. An experiment consists of tossing a die and then ipping a coin once if the number on the die is even. If the number on the die is odd, the coin is ipped twice. Using the notation 4H , for example, to denote the outcome that the die comes up 4 and then the coin comes up heads and 3HT to denote the outcome that the die comes up 3 followed by a head and then a tail on the coin, construct a tree diagram to show the 18 elements of the sample space S . Solution. The sample space S is, S = {1HH, 1HT, 1T H, 1T T, 2H, 2T, 3HH, 3HT, 3T H, 3T T, 4H, 4T, 5HH, 5HT, 5T H, 5T T, 6H, 6T } Walpole P55, Exercise 10. For married couples living in a certain suburb the probability that the husband will vote on a bond referendum is 0.21, the probability that his wife will vote in the referendum is 0.28, and the probability that both the husband and wife will vote is 0.15. What is the probability that (a) at least one member of a married couple will vote ? (b) a wife will vote, given that her husband will vote ? (c) a husband will vote, given that his wife does not vote ? Solution. Given, P(H) = 0.21, P(W) = 0.28 and P (H W ) = 0.15 (a) P (H W ) = P (H ) + P (W ) P (H W ) = 0.21 + 0.28 0.15 = 0.34 P (H W ) 0.15 P (W |H ) = = = 0.714 P (H ) 0.21 ) = P (H W ) = 0.21 0.15 = 0.0833 P (H |W ) 1 0.28 P (W

(b) (c)

Walpole P55, Exercise 14. In 1970, 11% of Americans completed four years of college, 43% of them were women. In 1990, 22% of Americans 1

completed four years of college; 53% of them were women. (Time, Jan.19, 1996) (a) Given that a person completed four years of college in 1970, what is the probability that the person was a woman ? (b) What is the probability that a women would nish four years of college in 1990 ? (c) What is the probability that in 1990 a man would not nish college ? Solution. Let us dene the following events A1970 = {Americans completing four years of college W1970 = {American women completing four years of A1990 = {Americans completing four years of college W1990 = {American women completing four years of in 1970} college in 1970} in 1990} college in 1990}

(a) P (W1970 |A1970 ) = 0.43 (b) P (W1990 ) = P (W1990 |A1990 )P (A1990 ) = 0.53 0.22 = 0.1166 1990 A1990 ) = 1 ((1 0.53)0.22) = 0.8966 (c) 1 P (W

Walpole P56, Exercise 22. Suppose an electrical system is given in the diagram below. What is the probability that the system works ? Solution. P {System works} = = = = = P (A (B C ) D) P (A)P (B C )P (D) )P (C ))P (D) P (A)(1 P (B (0.95)(1 (0.3)(0.2))(0.9) 0.8037

Walpole P61, Exercise 7. Pollution of the rivers in the United States has been a problem for many years. Consider the following events: A = {The river is polluted.} B = {A sample of water tested detects pollution.} C = {Fishing permitted.} Assume P (A) = 0.3, P (B |A) = 0.75, P (B |A ) = 0.2, P (C |A B ) = 0.2, 2

P (C |A B ) = 0.15, P (C |A B ) = 0.8, P (C |A B ) = 0.9. Find (a) P (A B C ), (b) P (B C ), (c) P (C ), (d) the probability that the river is polluted, given that shing is permitted and the sample tested did not detect pollution. Solution. (a) P (A B C ) = P (A B )P (C |A B ) = P (A)P (B |A)P (C |A B ) = 0.3 0.75 0.20 = 0.045 (b) P (B C ) = = = = = (c) P (C ) = P (B C ) + P (B C ) = P (B C ) + P (C |A B )P (A B ) + P (C |A B )P (A B ) = 0.630 (d) P (A|B C ) = P (A B C ) P (B C ) P (C |A B )P (A B ) = P (B C ) = 0.1064 P (B C A) + P (B C A ) P (A B )P (C |A B ) + P (A B )P (C |A B ) (P (A) P (B A))P (C |A B ) + (P (A ) P (B A ))P (C |A B ) (P (A) P (B |A)P (A))P (C |A B ) + (P (A ) P (B |A )P (A ))P (C |A B ) 0.564

Walpole P62 Exercise 6. If the probability is 0.1 that a person will make a mistake on his or her state income tax return, nd the probability that 3

(a) Four totally unrelated persons each make a mistake (b) Mr.Jones and Ms.Clark both make a mistake and Mr.Roberts and Ms.Williams do not make a mistake. Solution. (a) P {Four unrelated persons each make a mistake} = (0.1)4 = 0.0001 (b) P {Mr.Jones and Ms.Clark both make a mistake and Mr.Roberts and Ms.Williams do not make a mistake} = (0.1)2 (1 0.1)2 = 0.0081

Walpole P62 Exercise 8. From a group of 4 men and 5 women, how many committees of size 3 are possible (a) with no restrictions ? (b) with 1 man and 2 women ? (c) with 2 men and 1 women if a certain man must be on the committee ? Solution. (a) # of possible committees = (b) # of possible committees = (c) # of possible committees = 9 3 4 1 3 1 = 84 5 2 5 1 = 40 = 15

Walpole P62 Exercise 9. The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart operation is 0.8. What is the probability that (a) exactly 2 of the next 3 patients who have this operation will survive ? (b) all of the next 3 patients who have this operation survive ? Solution. (a) P {exactly 2 of the 3 survive} = (b) P {all 3 survive} = (0.8)3 = 0.512 3 2 0.8 0.8 0.2 = 0.384

Walpole P62 Exercise 10. In a certain federal prison it is known that 2/3 of the mates are under 25 years of age. It is also known that 3/5 of the inmates are male and that 5/8 of the inmates are female or 25 years of age 4

or older. What is the probability that a prisoner selected at random from this prison is female and at least 25 years old ? Solution. Let us dene the events, F : Female O : 25yrs of age or older U : under 25yrs of age Given, P (U ) = 2/3, P (M ) = 3/5, and P (F O) =5/8. P(O) = 1 - P(U) = 1/3 P(F) = 1 - P(M) = 2/5 P (F O) = P (F ) + P (O) P (F O) = 2/5 + 1/3 5/8 = 0.1083

Walpole P62 Exercise 15. A certain federal agency employs three consulting rms (A, B and C) with probabilities 0.4, 0.35, 0.25, respectively. From past experience it is known that the probability of cost overrun for the rms are 0.05, 0.03, and 0.15 respectively. Suppose a cost overrun is experienced by the agency. (a) What is the probability that the consulting rm involved is company C ? (b) What is the probability that it is company A ? Solution. P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.35, P(C) = 0.25, P (O|A) = 0.05, P (O|B ) = 0.03, and P (O|C ) = 0.15 P (C )P (O|C ) = 0.5514 P (A)P (O|A) + P (B )P (O|B ) + P (C )P (O|C ) P (A)P (O|A) = 0.2941 P (A)P (O|A) + P (B )P (O|B ) + P (C )P (O|C )

(a)

P (C |O) =

(b)

P (A|O) =