Lean six sigma Decision making approaches Customer lifetime value

You have been hired for a future leadership role in a consumer durables company and asked to make a presentation on Mission vs. Goals vs. Strategy vs. Execution vs. Tactics vs. Results which you were able to carry out with ease. You are now asked to suggest an approach that shall connect all of these and help in reviewing the organizational progress from time to time. Decide upon a tried and tested approach and present it in not more than 4 power point slides. Background Information Lean Six Sigma thinking hinges on Y = F(X). Using a good understanding of X's (input variables), we can ascertain and many times drive Y (business output metric) towards a meaningful outcome. Caselet 5 An FMCG major has created a new shampoo formula (Outshine) that cures dandruff more effectively than existing products. While considering the final decision on the product in India, the brand manager has to provide some answers to senior management. Although Outshine does what it promises in a manner better than competing products, the company is still considering whether this product should be given the final shape and marketed. The situation has five variables of concern trial costs, marketing costs, successful customer outcomes, growth rate of prospects, and conversion of non users into users. The company has already spent Rs. 50 crore in developing the product. The following information has been compiled Trial Costs: These costs are likely to be between Rs. 15 Cr to Rs. 25 Cr with all figures having equal probability. Marketing Costs: Marketing cost of Outshine is likely to be between Rs. 60 Cr and Rs. 90 Cr, with the most likely figure being Rs. 80 Cr. Successful Customer Outcomes: Preliminary tests have shown successful outcomes as 25% which means that 25% of customers were fully cured of dandruff problems with proper continued usage as specified with the product. While the remaining 75% have shown promising improvement, they were not fully cured. The product quality team located in Europe shall pass the product only if at least 20 out of 100 randomly selected people are fully cured in its own independent trial, the costs of which are mentioned earlier. Market Attractiveness - There are 4 crore prospects of anti-dandruff shampoos who have not been using any such product so far and expected to use such product within an year. The company is expecting all its business to come from this segment. There are 75% chances that this prospect base will grow next year by 0-5%, but there is also a 25% probability that this base shall reduce by 0-10%. While most of this segments business is likely to be captured by established brands, Outshine is expected to get 8% share. If this trial fails, the product cannot be launched. Market Share & Gross Profit: Market share for Outshine from the untapped market is expected to be normally distributed with an average share of 8% and a standard deviation of 2%. The gross profit (sales minus manufacturing costs) per customer in one year shall be Rs. 600 per customer. You need to help the brand manager in answering the key questions given below What are the chances of breaking even within first year in this project? (Please enter response below)
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What is the probability of the expected net profit being greater than Rs. 20 crore? (Please enter response below)