Chapter Two: Load Characteristics, Curves, Type and Forecasting 1 Energy Requirements

Prof.
Dr Alaa Abdel Razek Modern Electrical Power System Chapter 2: Load Characteristics, Curves, Type, and Forecasting
Chapter Two
Load Characteristics, Curves, Type and Forecasting 1 Energy Requirements A power station feeds different type of consumers domestic, commercial, industrial, municipal, agricultural etc. The present day power stations invariably feed a grid which delivers power to the load centers. The design of a power plant or system must take into account the future increase in load. For this purpose load forecasting studies have to be made to predict the increase in load in the next 30 years or so. A modern power station takes 5 to 10 years for completion and some hydro-electric stations take even longer time. As such the power system planning must be done about 20 years in advance. The estimate of power and the increase in generation capacity depend on maximum demand, the distribution and variation in demand and the energy requirements. 2 Load Characteristics It is necessary to know the general nature of load, which is characterized by the demand factor, load factor or diversity factor.
Prof. Dr Alaa Abdel Razek Modern Electrical Power System Chapter 2: Load Characteristics, Curves, Type, and Forecasting
Each device at the consumer terminals has its rated capacity. The connected load of a consumer means the sum of
continuous ratings of all the devices and outlets installed on his distribution circuit. The maximum demand of a consumer means the maximum power that his circuit is likely to draw at any time. If all the devices and outlets were used simultaneously to the full extent, the maximum demand of the consumer would equal his connected load. Experience has shown that consumers do not use all the devices at full load simultaneously. The maximum demand of each consumer is, therefore, less than his connected load. The maximum demand and the connected load are related by: Maximum Demand (MD) (1) Demand Factor= Connected Load Each device will run at its rated capacity at sometime during its operation. The demand factor indicates the contribution of the device towards the maximum demand of the consumer. Demand factors for various types of loads vary within very wide limits. Some typical values are given in Table 1.
Type of Load Residential
Description 0.5 KW and less 0.5 to 1 KW
Demand 0.7 Factor 0.6 2
Commercial
Industrial
1KW and above Restaurants, Shops and Offices Educational Institutions Theatre, Cinema and Hotels Cottage (less than 5kW) Small Scale (5kW to 25kW) Medium (25kW to 100kW) Large (More than 100kW) Table 1: Demand Factors
0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Example1: A residential consumer has the following connected load: 8 bulbs of 100 W each, 2 fans of 60 W each and 2 light plug points of 100 W each. His use of electricity during a day as under: 12 midnight to 5 am 5 am to 7 am 7 am to 9 am 9 am to 6 pm 6 pm to midnight one fan 2 fans and one light point Nil 2 fans 2 fans and 4 bulbs
Find (a) connected load, (b) maximum demand (c) demand factor (d) energy consumed during 24 hours (e) energy consumed in 24 hours if all devices are used all the day. Solution. (a) Connected load = 8Lx100 +2Fx60 + 2Px100 = 1120 W (b) Total wattage at different times is: 3
12 midnight to 5 am:
one fan x 60 = 60 W
5 am to 7 am : 2 fans x 60 + 1 light point x 100 =220 W 7 am to 9 am: 9 am to 6 pm: Nil 2 fans x 60 = 120 W
6 pm to midnight: 2 fans x 60 + 4 bulbs x 100 = 520 W Then the maximum demand is 520 W (c) Demand factor = MD/Connected Load = 520 / 1120 = 0.464 (d) Energy consumed kWh: 12 midnight to 5 am: is 5 hours period, then e1 = 60 W x 5 h = 300 Wh 5 am to 7 am is 2 hours period, then e2 = 220 W x 2 h = 440 Wh 7 am to 9 am Nil 9 am to 6 pm is 9 hours period, then e3 = 120 W x 9 h = 1080 Wh 6 pm to 12 midnight is 6 hours period,then e4 = 520 W x 6 h = 3120 Wh Total energy consumed during 24 hours is E=300+440+1080+3120Wh=4940Wh = 4.94kWh (e) If all devices are used throughout the day, the energy consumed is = Connected Load x 24 hours 4
= 1120 x 24 = 26880 Wh = 26.88 kWh Group Diversity Factor The load actually used by a consumer at any time during a day depends on his requirements at that time. Since the requirements at different times are different, the load varies from instant to instant during day. The electric supply authorities have to make provision for generation, transmission and distribution facilities to supply loads to different consumers. The investment in all these
facilities is proportional to kVA ratings of these equipments. Therefore every electric supply authority has to make a reasonable estimate of the maximum kVA demand of the area supplied by it. In every area there are a number of consumers. Let the number of consumer served by one particular distribution transformer be 8. This group of 8 consumers will have different electrical gadgets at their premises and each consumer will use the gadgets as per his requirement. Each one of the consumers will have a certain maximum demand. However, it is likely that the maximum demands of different consumers occurs at different times. This is due to different habits and requirements of these 8 consumers. If this happens, the maximum demands 5
of the group will be less than the sum of their maximum demands. The contribution of the maximum demand of a consumer to the power requirements of the group depends on the group diversity factor (2) Group Diversity Factor equals Sum of individual Maximum Demands Maximum Demand of the group The group diversity factor is always greater than unity. The consumers maximum demands divided by an estimated value for the group diversity factor will determine his effective demand at the distribution transformer. Example 2: A group of two consumers has the following electricity demand pattern on a typical winter day: Consumer A: Connected load 2.5 kW 100 W 1.1 kW 200 W NIL 500 W 3 kW NIL 300 W 6
Load from 12 midnight to 5 am : from 5 am to 6 am : from 6 am to 8 am : from 8 am to 5 pm : from 5 am to 12 midnight: Consumer B: Connected load Load from 1 pm to 7 am : from 7 am to 8 am:
from 8 am to 10 am; from 10 am to 6 pm: from 6 pm to 11 pm :
1 kW 200 W 600 W
(a) Calculate demand factors of both consumers. (b) Plot the variation in demand versus time of the day for each consumer and the group. (c) Find group diversity factor. (d) Find energy consumed by each consumer in 24 hours. (e) Find the maximum energy which each consumer would consume in 24 hours if his load were constant and equal to his maximum demand. (f) Find the ratio of actual energy to maximum
energy for each. From the solution note that: The ratio of actual energy to maximum energy of a consumer is known as load factor of the consumer. Similarly the ratio of actual energy to maximum energy of a group of consumers is the load factor of the group. The ratio of the actual energy to maximum energy of a system is the load factor of the system. It is seen from the results of example 2 that diversity between the two consumers has reduced the maximum
demand of this group of two consumers. If their pattern of using electricity were similar to the total maximum demand would have been 2.1 kW. Diversity has reduced the combined 7
maximum demand to 1100 W. This reduction in maximum demand and diversity has an important effect on power system economics because the power supply authorities will have to make lesser investment in generation, transmission and distribution facilities. Peak Diversity Factor Diversity will exist in the time of maximum demands of the transformers on the feeders and also as regards the feeders to the sub-station and the sub-stations to the generating station. As one goes from the consumer, individual variations have diminishing effect which result in decreasing numerical values of diversity factors as the power plant end of the system is approached. Table 2 gives some typical values of diversity factors. Residential Commercial Industrial 1.4 to 1.8 1.4 to 1.8 Group Diversity 3 to 5 1.2 1.2 Diversity factor 1.3 Factor 1.1 1.1 Diversity between factor 1.2 1.1 1.1 Diversity factor 1.1 between feeders transformers 1.2x1.1x1.1 Peak between Diversity sub- 1.3x1.2x1.1 1.2x1.1x1.1 Table 2: Diversity Factors Factor stations The diversity factors between transformers, between feeders and between sub-station can be combined into a single term commonly referred to as peak diversity factor. 8
(3) Peak Diversity Factor Maximum Demand of a consumer Group Demand of the Consumer Group at time of System Peak Peak diversity factor gives an indication of the effective demand of the consumer group at the time of system peak demand and is the product of the diversity factors between transformers, between feeders and between sub-stations. Load Factor. Load factor for a system or a plant is the ratio of the average load to the peak load, for a certain period of time. Example 3: A power station is to supply 4 areas whose peak loads are 10MW, 6MW, 8MW and 7MW. The diversity factor of loads at the station is 1.5 and annual load factor is 65%. Find maximum demand on station and annual energy supplied. Suggest installed capacity, taking into account the increase in maximum demand by 60%, type of station and number and size of units. Solution. Max. demand on station = Sum of max. demands/Diversity factor = 31/1.5= 20.67MW Annual energy = 20.67 x 8760 x 0.65 = 117677.9 MWh / year Increase in maximum demand = 20.67 x 0.6 = 12.4 MW 9
Installed capacity = 20.67 + 12.4 = 33.07 MW For the above value of installed capacity the power station can be either a diesel station or a gas turbine plant. The diesel units are manufactured in small sizes and therefore this station will need too many units and the cost would be very high. A gas turbine plant with 2 units of 10MW each and two units of 15MW each would be suitable. The station have a total installed capacity of 50MW and thus will have sufficient reserve capacity also. (4) Load Factor = Average Load/ Peak Load Load factor can also be defined as the ratio of the energy consumed in a certain time (say 24 hours or a year) to the energy which would be consumed if the load is maintained at the maximum value throughout that time. (5) Load Factor = Energy consumed during a time of t hours Peak Load x t The peak load is generally taken as that prevailing for a quarter hour and the average load may be that pertaining to a day, a month or a year, that giving daily, monthly or yearly load factor. Load factor has operation and cost of generation. The load factor depicts the variation of load during a certain 10
period but it does not give any indication of the shape of the load duration curve. Figure 3 depicts different systems having the same maximum demand, different shapes of load duration curves but the same load factor. 100% load factor means a rectangular load duration curve with constant load during the whole period of the time considered. Example 4: A consumer has the following connected load: 10 lamps each of 60 W 2 heater each of 1000 W Maximum demand 1500 W On the average uses 8 lamps for 5 hours per day, each heater 3 hours per day. Find (a) average load, (b) monthly energy consumption, (c) load factor. Solution. (a) Daily average load = Actual Daily Energy Consumption / day Time =(8Lx60Wx5h+2Hx1000Wx3h) / 24 = 350W (b) Monthly energy consumption = Daily average load x 24 h x 30 day =252kWh (c) Daily Load Factor = Daily average load / Day Maximum Demand = 350 / 1500 = 0.233 11
3. Load Curves Chronological Load Curve or Load curve, is a graphical representation between load in power (kW, MW) in proper time sequence and time in hours. It shows the variation of load on the power station. When it is plotted for a day, a week, a month or a year., then it is called daily or weekly or monthly or annually load curve. It is noted that the daily load curve of a system is not the same for all days. It differs from day-to-day and season-to-season. In practice, two types of curves are drawn as one for summer and the other for winter. The following information are obtained from load curves: 1. Load variation during different hours of the day; 2. The peak load indicated by the load curve give the maximum load demand; 3. The area under the load curve gives the total energy generated, then the total energy
generated divided by the total number of hours gives the average load. 4. The ratio of the average load to the maximum load demand gives the load factor. Higher load factor means more uniform load pattern with less variations in load. This is desirable from the point of view of 12
maximum utilization of associated equipment which are selected on the basis of maximum demand. On the basis of the above information load curves are useful as follows: (a) To decide the installed capacity of a power station. (b) To choose the most economical sizes of various generating units. (c) To estimate the generating cost. (d) To decide the operating schedule of the power station, that is , the sequence in which different
generating units should run. Load-Duration curve, is also a graph between load and time in which the ordinates representing the load are plotted in the order of descending magnitude, that is, with the greatest load at the left, lesser loads towards the right and the lowest load at the time extreme right. The load duration curve is derived from the load curve and therefore, represents the same data as that of the load curve. Procedure for plotting the load-duration curve:
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(a) From the data available from the load curve, determine the maximum load on the system and the duration for which it occurs; (b) Take the next lower load and determine the total time, during which this and the previous greater load occurs; and (c) Plot the load against time during which it occurs. The load-duration curve can be plotted for any duration of time, for example, a day or, a week, or a month, or a year. Information available from load duration curve are: (a) It gives the minimum present throughout the given period; (b) It enables the selection of base load and peak load power plants; (c) It gives the total duration in hours for the corresponding load; and (d) The area under load curve and corresponding load duration curve are equal. The Load energy curve, is a graphical representation between load energy in kWh or MWh in proper load in kW or MW. The energy curve is plot the cumulative integration of area under 14
load curve starting from zero load versus the particular load. The load energy curve is derived easily from the load-duration curve. The mass curve, is a graphical representation between load energy in kWh or MWh and time. Thus a mass curve gives the total energy used by the load upto each hour of the day. The mass curve can be easily plotted from the chronological load curve by summing up the energy consumed up to different times starting at the zero time. The mass curve is used in the study of variations between the rate of water flow and the electrical load and determination of the necessary storage. Example 5: The load on a power plant on a typical day is as under:
Time 12am 5am Load (MW) 20 5am 9am 40 9am 6pm 80 6pm 10pm 100 10pm 12am 20
(a) Plot the chronological load curve and load duration curve. (b) Find the load factor of the plant and the energy supplied by the plant in 24 hours. (c) Plot the energy load curve and the mass curve. Solution. 15
(a)The chronological load curve is plotted in Fig 1. The duration of loads is as under:
Load (MW)
100
80 and above
40 and above 17
20 and above 24
Duration (hours)
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The load duration curve is plotted in Figure 2. (b) The energy produced by the plant in 24 hours is = 100x4 + 80x (13-4) + 40x (17-13) + 20x (24-17) = 1420 MWh Load factor = 1420 / (100x24) = 0.5917 or 59.17% (c)The energy at different load levels is as under: Load = 20 MW, Energy = 24 x 20 = 480 MWh Load = 40 MW, Energy = 480 + 20 X 17 = 820 MWh Load = 80 MW, Energy = 820 + 40 X 13 = 1340 MWh Load = 40 MW, Energy = 1320 + 20 X 4 = 1420 MWh The energy load curve is plotted in Figure 3. The energy supplied up to different times of the day is as under: Energy supplied up to 5am = 20 x 5 = 100 MWh Energy supplied up to 9am = 100 + 40 x 4 = 260 MWh Energy supplied up to 6pm = 260 + 80 x 9 = 980 MWh Energy supplied up to 10pm=980 + 100 x 4 = 1380 MWh 16
Energy supplied up to 12am=1380 + 20 x 2 = 1420 MWh The mass curve is plotted in Figure 4.
Fig.1: Chronological Curve
Fig.2: Load Duration Curve
Fig.3: Energy Load Curve 4. Plant Factors
Fig.4: Mass Load Curve
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Plant Capacity Factors, is the ratio of total plant power produced at the generator terminals to the plant rated capacity. (6) Plant Capacity Factor = Plant Power produced / Plant rated Capacity If the plant is always run at its rated capacity, the capacity factor is 100%. Plant Load Factor, is the ratio of the actual plant energy supplied over specified time (t) to the plant peak power producing power times the time (t). (7) Plant Load Factor =
Actual Plant Energy Supplied in a time (t) / Plant Peak Load x t
Actual Plant Energy Produced = Plant Energy Produced Energy Consumed by the Plants Auxiliary Equipment The plant capacity factor depicts the extent of the use of the generating station. It is different from plant load factor because of the reason that the rated capacity of each plant is always greater than the expected maximum load. The power plants have always some reserve capacity to take into account the future expansion, increase in the load and maintenance. It is evident that the rated plant capacity equals the maximum load, the capacity factor and load factor become identical. 18
Plant Utilization Factor, is defined as the ratio of the plant peak load to the plant rated capacity of plant. (8) Plant Utilization Factor = Plant Peak Power / Rated Plant Capacity The utilization factor for a plant depends on the use to which the plant is put. A low utilization factor means that the plant is either a standby plant or has been installed to take into account the future increase in the load. For a power plant, in an integrated system, a high utilization factor shows that the plant is probably the most efficient in the system. Example 6: The maximum demand of a power plant is 40 MW. The capacity factor is 50% and the utilization factor is 80%. Assume the energy consumed by plants auxiliary equipments equals 4%. Find (a) plant rated capacity, (b) plant load factor capacity, (c) plant reserve capacity, (d) annual plant energy production. (assume the operating time is 7300 hours/year) Solution. (a) Plant Utilization factor = Plant Peak Load/Plant Rated Capacity Plant Rated Capacity = 40MW/0.8 = 50MW (b) Plant Capacity Factor 19
= Plant Power Produced / Plant Rated Capacity Plant Power Produced = 0.5 x 50 MW = 25 MW Actual Power Produced = 0.96 x 25 MW = 24 MW Plant Load Factor = Actual Power Supplied / Plant Peak Load = 24 MW / 40 MW = 60 % (c) Plant Reserve Capacity = Plant Rated Capacity Plant Peak Load = 50 40 = 10 MW (d) Plant Annual Energy Production = 25 MW x 73000 H/year = 182.5 GWh / year 5 Load Types The main type of load on a system are domestic, industrial, commercial, municipal, agriculture etc. Domestic or Residential load: Residential load consists of lights, fans and appliances like radios, heaters, electric iron, refrigerator, air-conditions, mixers, electric ovens, electric water heaters, washing machines etc. The small consumers may generally use all the lights points simultaneously giving a demand factor of unity. For big houses, the demand factor may be only around 0.5. During summer the major part of domestic load may consist of fan load during day and light and fan load 20
during evenings. During winter the major load is light load during evenings and early mornings and some heater load. The typical factors are: demand factor 70-100%., diversity factor 1.2-1.3 and load factor 10-15%. Commercial load: This consists mainly of lighting for shops and advertisements, etc., fans, air-conditioning, heating, elevators and other electrical appliances used in commercial establishments, such as shops, restaurants, market places, etc. The load is fairly constant from around 9 am to 8 pm. During night the load may consist of some lighting load. The demand factor is fairly high. The demand factor is usually 90-100%, diversity factor is 1.1-1.2 and load factor is 25-30%. Industrial load: The industrial load may be further sub-divided into small, medium and heavy. The chronological load curve for industrial load depend on the number of shifts per day in the industry. During night the load is mostly lighting plus some loads like refrigeration load which require continuous supply. Around 6 am some machine start working and the load starts increasing. The shift starts at 8 am and the load suddenly jumps to full value and remains almost constant throughout the day, except during lunch break, till the end of the shift.
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These industrial loads may be of the following typical power range: Cottage industries Small-scale industries Medium-scale industries Large-scale industries Heavy industries kW The last two types of loads need power over a longer period and which remains fairly uniform throughout the day. For large-scale industrial loads the demand factor may be taken as 70-80% and the load factor 60-65% and for heavy industries the demand factor may be taken as 85-90% with a load factor of 70-80%. Municipal load: This includes load for street lighting, water supply etc. Street lighting load is practically constant during night thus giving a demand factor and diversity factor of unity. The switching on of the lights and their switching off is synchronized with dusk and dawn respectively. It is necessary to run separate distributors for street lighting to enable their switching simultaneously. < 5 kW 5-25 kW 25 100 kW 100-500 kW above 500
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The load for water supply is for pumping water to the overhead tanks. It is generally possible to fit this load during system offpeak hours, usually occurring during night. Agriculture load: This type of load is required for supplying water for irrigation by means suitable pumps driven by electric motors. The tube-wells used for irrigation may constitute a substantial portion of the system load. For some areas it may be more than even the industrial load. It is a general practice to energies tube-well feeders for about 12 hours a day during night. The demand factor and diversity factor are both almost unity. The load factor is generally taken as 20-25%, the
diversity factor as 1-1.15 and the demand factor as 90-100%. Other Loads: Apart from the above mentioned loads, there are other loads such as bulk supplies, special industries such as paper, textile, etc., and traction and government loads which have their own peculiar characteristics. 6 Load Forecasting It is evident that load forecasting is a curcial activity in electricity supply. Forecasts are based on the previous years loading for the period in question updated by factors such as general load increases, major new loads, and wheather trends. Both power demand and energy (kWh) forecasts are used, the 23
latter often being the more readily obtained. From energy forecasts demand value may be determined. Energy trends tend to be less erratic than peak power demands and are considered better growth indiators; however, load factors are also erratic in nature. In power system, there is a great need for accurately forecasting load and energy requirements because a great amount of cost is spent in the electricity distribution industry. The forecast of energy requirements is also important to power generation authorities so that the water or fuel requirements can be calculated and generator location schedules worked out. Estimation & Prediction of Load In any problem of power system planning design the first step defines the conditions of energy supply that the plant must meet. The conditions may be classified under three headings: 2. Maximum demand; 3. Total energy requirements; and 4. Distribution of energy demand. When a power station is to be installed in particular location, it is desirable that maximum power demand of that area should be known. This helps in deciding the power station capacity. Exact future load requirements is difficult to forecast 24
but approximate estimate about power demand can be made. There are following four methods to forecast the load requirements: 1. Statistical method; 2. Load survey method; 3. Mathematical method; and 4. Economic parameters. Statistical Method In it, the expected future load of the area can be judged from data of annual maximum demand for past several years. This estimates the yearly increase in energy consumption. It has been found that depending upon annual electrical energy consumption per capita typical yearly increase are as under: 100 kWh 200 kWh 1000 kWh - 2000 kWh 25% 2000 kWh - 3000 kWh above 3000 kWh 7.5% 4 to 5% 2 to 5% 10 to
Load survey method In field or load survey method existing requirements of the area for different loads such as industrial, agricultural, municipal and residential are found out, then future load requirement are decided. In deciding future load 25
requirements factors like, population growth, standard of living of the people, industrial developments etc. are taken into account. This enables a forecast of electrical load and energy. The method may cover a period of a 8 to 10 years. For planning of equipment and erection while the period may be longer (say 20 years) for overall planning. Mathematical methods These methods are linear or
exponential curve fitting techniques for extrapolation of the curves showing energy consumption for past several years. Statistical data for a sufficiently long period must therefore be available for such methods. Method using economic parameter These are based on the assumption that per capita consumption of electrical energy in a country depends upon economic factors, some of these being specific gross investments, industrial production, specific fuel consumption, housing, transport etc. Indicates for these parameters are found and suitably used for extrapolation by linear or exponential approximation.
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Chapter Two: Load Characteristics, Curves, Type and Forecasting 1 Energy Requirements

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Chapter Two: Load Characteristics, Curves, Type and Forecasting 1 Energy Requirements

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Type of Load Residential

Description 0.5 KW and less 0.5 to 1 KW

Demand 0.7 Factor 0.6 2

0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

from 8 am to 10 am; from 10 am to 6 pm: from 6 pm to 11 pm :

Fig.1: Chronological Curve

Fig.2: Load Duration Curve

Fig.3: Energy Load Curve 4. Plant Factors

Fig.4: Mass Load Curve

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