THISTRANSCRIPTISISSUEDONTHEUNDERSTANDINGTHATITIS TAKENFROMALIVEPROGRAMMEASITWASBROADCAST.THE NATUREOFLIVEBROADCASTINGMEANSTHATNEITHERTHEBBC NORTHEPARTICIPANTSINTHEPROGRAMMECANGUARANTEETHE ACCURACYOFTHEINFORMATIONHERE. REITHLECTURES2010:SCIENTIFICHORIZONS Presenter:MartinRees Lecture3:WhatWellNeverKnow TRANSMISSION:16thJUNE2010RADIO4 SUELAWLEY:HelloandwelcometotheRoyalSocietyinLondonforthethirdof ourReithLectures.Thisyear,theRoyalSocietycelebratesits350thanniversary.It wasfoundedinthefirstyearofthereignofCharlesIIduringtheScientific Revolutionofthe17thcentury.IsaacNewtonwasoneofitsearliestmembers. Later,CharlesDarwinandAlbertEinsteinjoineditsranks.

Soitsappropriate thatourlecturerthisyearisitscurrentPresidentamanwhobelieveseverybit asmuchintherevolutionarycapabilitiesofscienceashissocietysfounding members. Helivesinhopethatwewilldiscoverlifebeyondourownplanet.Human beings,hesays,maynotbetheculminationoftheevolutionarytree.Andin thespiritofceaselessexplorationthatcharacterisesthisinstitution,hecallsthis lectureWhatWellNeverKnow.Ladiesandgentlemen,pleasewelcomethe BBCReithLecturer2010:MartinRees. (APPLAUSE) SUELAWLEY:Martin,acoupleofquestionsjustbeforeyoudeliveryourlecture. YouceasetobePresidentoftheRoyalSocietyhereinNovember,Ithink,atthe 1

endofafiveyearstint.ThegreatliterarycriticF.RLeavisoncedismissedC.P Snow,whodbeenstandingupforscience,asaPRmanforthescientific establishment.Doyousometimesfeelthatstheroleyouvebeencastin? MARTINREES:IfthatsmyroleIvecertainlyfailedatthat,Isuspect.ButIdo seemyroleasbeingnotonlytopromoteexcellentscience,buttoencourage engagementwiththepublic,withpoliticians,andwiththeeducationalprocess generally. SUELAWLEY:Butyourenotthekindofmanwholikessparetimeandyoure presumablyyouregoingtohavealotmoreofitwhenyoufinishherein November? MARTINREES:WellIthinkIllhaveabacklogofthingsthatIwillcatchup with,andspendmoretimedoingscience,doingsomewriting,andevensome politics. SUELAWLEY:Iimagineyouasoneofthosepeoplewhosconstantlygotaplate spinningontensticks,rushingupanddowntheline.Yousaidtomewhenyou wereacastawayonDesertIslandDiscs,someyearsagonow,thatyourluxury wouldbeThomasJeffersonschair.Justtellmewhy. MARTINREES:Wellthatwasasortofrecliningchairwhereyoucouldsitin comfortandreadandthink,andperhapsIlldoabitmoreofthatwhenIve retiredfromtheRoyalSociety. SUELAWLEY:Becausehewasagreatinventor,wasnthe?Hewasagadget man.

MARTINREES:Indeedhewas,anditwasaveryingeniousinvention. SUELAWLEY:Butyouattached,Ithink,atelescopetoyourrecliningchairwith alamponit.(LAUGHTER) MARTINREES:IthinkIdlikeatelescope,andIdlikelotsofbooks. SUELAWLEY:(LAUGHS)Nowtonightyoutellmeyouregoingtoletyourhair down.Whatdoesthatmean? MARTINREES:WellwhatImeantwasthatthislectureisgoingtobefocused onscienceandratherspeculativefringesofscience,soIshouldreallygivea healthwarningatthebeginningthatsomeofthethingsImgoingtosayare speculativeandnottobetakenasallthatasauthoritative. SUELAWLEY:Wevegotthehealthwarning.MartinRees,WhatWellNever Know.Thefloorisyours.Thankyou. (APPLAUSE) MARTINREES:Whilestrugglingtopreparewhattosaytoday,Ihadafantasy. SupposeIhadatimemachine.Icould'fastforward'intothefuture,turnonthe radio,listentothislecture,takenotesandthenreversebacktothepresentand startwriting.(LAUGHTER) Well,therewasplainlynosuch'quickfix'butcouldthereeverbe? ArthurCClarkenotedthatanysufficientlyadvancedtechnologyis indistinguishablefrommagic.Wecan'tenvisionwhatartifactsmightexist

centurieshenceanymorethanaRomancouldforeseetoday'sSatNavand mobilephones. Nonetheless,physicistswouldconfidentlyassertthattimemachineswillremain foreverfiction.That'sbecausechangingthepastwouldleadtoparadoxes infanticidewouldviolatelogicaswellasethicsifthevictimwasyour grandmother. So,what'sthedemarcationbetweenconceptsthatseemcrazynowbutmightbe realisedeventuallyandthingsthatareforeverimpossible? Aretherescientificproblemsthatwillforeverbaffleusphenomenathatsimply transcendhumanunderstanding? I'mgoingtospeculateonthesethemestoday. Einsteinaverredthat"Themostincomprehensiblethingabouttheuniverseis thatitiscomprehensible". Hewasrighttobeastonished.Ourminds,whichevolvedtocopewithlifeonthe Africansavannah,canalsocomprehendthemicroworldofatoms,andthe vastnessofthecosmos. Einsteinhimselfmadeoneofthebiggestadvances.Morethan200yearsbefore him,IsaacNewtonhadshownthatthegravitythatmakesapplesfallisthesame forcethatholdsplanetsintheirorbits.Einsteinwentmuchfurther.Hedidnt proveNewtonwrong,buthetranscendedNewtonbyofferinginsightsinto gravitythatlinkedittothenatureofspaceandtime,andtheuniverseitself.

Indeed,Einsteinwouldhavebeenespeciallygratifiedathowourcosmichorizons haveenlarged.OurSunisoneofahundredbillionstarsinourGalaxy,whichis itselfoneofmanybilliongalaxiesinrangeofourtelescopes.Andthisentire panoramaemergedfromahot,dense'beginning'nearly14billionyearsago. Someinferencesabouttheearlyuniverseareasevidencebasedasanythinga geologistmighttellyouaboutthehistoryofourEarth:weknowwhatthe conditionswereasecondafterthebigbang,evenjustamicrosecondafterit.But, asalwaysinscience,eachadvancebringsintofocussomenewquestionsthat couldn'tpreviouslyhaveevenbeenposed. Andtheveryfirstmomentsareamystery.Thatsbecauserightbackinthefirst tinyfractionofasecond,conditionswouldhavebeenfarhotteranddenserthan wecansimulateinthelab.Soweloseanyfootholdinexperiment;becausewe don'tknowthephysicallawsthatthenprevailed. Indeed,toconfronttheoverwhelmingmysteryofwhatbangedandwhyit banged,Einstein'stheoryisn'tenough.That'sbecauseittreatsspaceandtimeas smoothandcontinuous.Weknowthatnomaterialcanbechoppeduparbitrarily small:eventually,yougetdowntodiscreteatoms.Likewise,evenspaceandtime can'tbedividedupindefinitely. Accordingtothemostfavouredapproachcalledstringtheoryeverypointin ourthreedimensionalspacemay,ifyoumagnifieditenough,beatightly wrappedorigamiinsixextradimensions.Sospaceandtimemaythemselvesbe verycomplicatedon'micro'scalesevenfurtherfromourintuitionsthan Einstein'stheorywas.

Buttheremaybemysteries,too,atthelargestconceivablescales.Therecouldbe farmorebeyondourhorizon,asitwere,thanthevastexpansethatourtelescopes canobserve. Somehavespeculatedthatotheruniversescouldexist'alongside'ours.Imagine antscrawlingaroundonalargesheetofpaper(theirtwodimensional'universe'). Theywouldbeunawareofasimilarsheetthat'sparalleltoit.Likewise,there couldbeanotherentireuniverse(with3dimensionalspace,likeours)lessthana millimetreaway,butwewouldbeoblivioustoitifthatmillimetrewere measuredinafourthspatialdimension,whileweareimprisonedinjustthree. WellI'veperhapsbeenabitselfindulgentinstartingthislecturewithremote, speculativetopics.Butthebedrocknatureofspaceandtime,andthestructureof ourentireuniverse,aresurelyamongscience'sgreat'openfrontiers'. Theyexemplifyintellectualdomainswherewe'restillgropingforthetruth where,inthefashionofancientcartographers,wemuststillinscribe'herebe dragons'.Andwheretherearequestionsthatwecan'tyetformulate:Donald Rumsfeld'sfamous'unknownunknowns'(whatapity,incidentally,thathedidn't sticktophilosophy!)(LAUGHTER) Sotwofrontiersofsciencearetheverylarge(thecosmos)andtheverysmall(the quantum).Butonlyatinyproportionofresearchersarecosmologistsorparticle physicists.There'sathirdfrontier:theverycomplex. Aninsect,withitslayeruponlayerofintricatestructure,isfarmorecomplex thaneitheranatomorastar. Oureverydayworldpresentsintellectualchallengesjustasdauntingasthoseof

thecosmosandthequantum,andthat'swhere99percentofscientistsfocustheir efforts. Thedifferentsciencesaresometimeslikenedtosuccessivelevelsofatall buildingphysicsonthegroundfloor,thenchemistry,thencellbiologyallthe wayuptopsychology,andtheeconomistsinthepenthouse.(LAUGHTER) Thereisacorrespondinghierarchyofcomplexityatoms,molecules,cells, organisms,andsoforth. Buttheanalogyfailsinacrucialrespect.Inabuilding,insecurefoundations imperileverythingabove.Butthe'higherlevel'sciencesdealingwithcomplex systemsaren'timperilledbyaninsecurebase.Theuncertaintiesofsubatomic physicsareirrelevanttobiologists. Analbatrossreturnstoitsnestafterwanderingtenthousandmilesinthe southernoceananditdoesthispredictably.Butitwouldbeimpossible,evenin principle,tocalculatethisbehaviourbyregardingthealbatrossasanassemblage ofatoms.Everything,howevercomplicatedbreakingwaves,migratingbirds,or tropicalforestsismadeupofatomsandobeystheequationsofquantum physics.Butevenifthoseequationscouldbesolved,theywouldn'tofferthe enlightenmentthatscientistsseek. Eachsciencehasitsownautonomousconceptsandlaws.Reductionismistruein asense.Butit'sseldomtrueinausefulsense. Problemsinbiology,andinenvironmentalandhumansciences,remainunsolved becauseit'shardtoelucidatetheircomplexitiesnotbecausewedon't understandsubatomicphysicswellenough

Youwon'tlearnthenatureoftimebytakingawatchapart. Letsnowfocusonsomespecifics. IfIweretoconjecturewherethescientific'cuttingedge'willadvancefastest,I'd plumpfortheinterfacebetweenbiologyandengineering.Practitionersofthe newscienceofsyntheticbiologycanconstructagenomefromsmallstretchesof DNA.Andanotherburgeoningdisciplinenanotechnologyaimstobuildup structuresatombyatom,leadingtothepossibilityofevenmorecompactdevices toenhancecomputerprocessingandmemory. Computersarealreadytransformationalespeciallyinfieldswherewecan'tdo realexperiments.Inthe'virtualworld'insideacomputerastronomerscancrash anotherplanetintotheEarthtoseeifthat'showourMoonmighthaveformed; meteorologistscansimulateweatherandclimate;brainscientistscansimulate howneuronsinteract. Justasvideogamesgetmoreelaborateastheirconsolesgetmorepowerful,so,as computerpowergrows,dothese'virtual'experiments. Somethings,liketheorbitsoftheplanets,canbecalculatedfarintothefuture. Butthat'sactuallyatypical.Inmostcontexts,there'safundamentallimit.That's because,tinycauseslikewhetherornotabutterflyflapsitswingsmakea differencethatwidensexponentially.Forreasonslikethiseventhemostfine grainedcomputationcanonlyforecastBritishweatherafewdaysahead.(But andthisisimportantthisdoesntstymiepredictionsoflongtermclimate change,norweakenourconfidencethatitllbecoldernextDecemberthanitisin June). Sotherearelimitstowhatcaneverbelearntaboutthefuture,howeverpowerful 8

computersbecome. Butwhatcanweconjectureaboutfutureapplicationsofscience? Onethingthat'schangedlittleformillenniaishumannatureandhuman character.Beforelong,however,newcognitionenhancingdrugs,genetics,and 'cyberg'techniquesmayalterhumanbeingsthemselves.Andthat'ssomething qualitativelynewinrecordedhistoryanddisquietingbecauseitcouldportend morefundamentalformsofinequality. Understandingthebrainthemostcomplicatedthingweknowaboutinthe universeisofcourseasupremechallenge.Scanningtechniquesarerevealing howourbrainsdevelop,andhowourthoughtsandemotionsareprocessed. Alreadynewdebatesopenupaboutpersonalresponsibilityandfreedom.The USNationalAcademyofSciencesrecentlygaveaspecialawardforaproject entitled'NeuralCorrelatesofAdmirationandCompassion'.Andthisisscary.If scannerscanrevealwhenwearesincere,andwhenwearebluffing,that'sthe ultimateinvasionofprivacy. Andwearelivinglonger.Ongoingresearchintothegeneticsofageingmay explainwhy;andindeed,arealwildcardinpopulationprojectionsisthat futuregenerationscouldachieveareallysubstantialenhancementinlifespan. Thisisstillspeculationmainstreamresearchersarecautious.Butsuchcaution hasn'tstoppedsomeAmericans,worriedthattheywilldiebeforethisnirvanais reached,frombequeathingtheirbodiestobefrozen,hopingthatsomefuture generationswillresurrectthem,ordownloadtheirbrainsintoacomputer.For mypart,IdratherendmydaysinanEnglishchurchyardthanaCalifornian refrigerator.(LAUGHTER)

Willcomputerstakeover?Evenbackinthe1990s,DeepBlueIBMscomputer beatKasparov,theworldchesschampion.DeepBluedidn'tworkoutits strategylikeahumanplayer:itexploiteditscomputationalspeedtoexplore millionsofalternativesbeforedecidinganoptimummove.Likewise,machines maymakescientificdiscoveriesthathaveeludedunaidedhumanbrainsbutby testingoutmillionsofpossibilitiesratherthanviaatheoryorstrategyorinsight. Butrobotscan'tyetrecogniseandmovethepiecesonarealchessboardas adeptlyasachildcan.Laterthiscentury,however,theymayrelatetotheir surroundings(andtopeople)asadeptlyaswedothroughoursenseorgans.And moralquestionswillthenarise.Weacceptanobligationtoensurethatother humanbeingscanfulfiltheir'natural'potentialandweevenfeelthesameabout someanimalspecies.Butwhatisourobligationtowardssophisticatedrobots,our owncreation?Shouldwefeelguiltyaboutexploitingthem?Shouldwefretif theyareunderemployed,frustrated,orbored? Bethatasitmay,robotssurelyhaveimmensepotentialinarenasthathumans can'treadilyreachinmines,oilrigs,andsuchlike.Andhealthcaremaybe aidedbynanorobotsvoyaginginsideourbodies.

ButwheretheymightreallycomeintotheirowniswaybeyondtheEarthin outerspace. Inthe1960smannedspaceflightwentfromcornflakespackettoreality.Neil Armstrong's'onesmallstep'ontheMooncameonly12yearsafterSputnikand only66yearsaftertheWrightBrothers'firstflight. Hadthatpacebeensustained,therewouldbynowhavebeenalunarbase,even 10

anexpeditiontoMars.ButtheMoonracewasanendinitself,drivenby superpowerrivalry.Onlythemiddleagedcanrememberwhenmenwalkedon themoontotheyoung,theApolloastronauts'exploitsandtheir'rightstuff' valuesareancienthistoryalmostlikeaWestern. PostApollo,hundredsofastronautshavecircledtheEarthinloworbitsbut nonehasgonefurther.Instead,unmannedtechnologyhasflourished,givingus GPS,globalcommunications,environmentalmonitoringandothereveryday benefits. Andscientificexplorationhasburgeonedtoo.ProbestoMars,andtothemoons ofJupiterandSaturn,havebeamedbackpicturesofvariedanddistinctive worlds.Ihopethat,duringthiscentury,theentiresolarsystemwillbeexplored byflotillasofroboticcraft. Butwillpeoplefollow?Theneedweakenswitheachadvanceinrobotsand miniaturisation.Atleast,that'smyviewasapracticalscientist.Butasahuman being,Iremainanenthusiastformannedmissionsasalongrangeadventure for(atleastafew)humans. ThenexthumanstowalkontheMoonmaybeChineseChinahastheresources, thedirigistegovernment,andmaybethewillingnesstoundertakeanApollo styleprogramme. ButifothersboldlygototheMoonandbeyond,it'smorelikelytobeviacut priceventures,spearheadedbyindividualspreparedtoaccepthighrisks perhapseven'onewaytickets'drivenbythesamemotivesasearlyexplorers, mountaineers,andthelike.

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AndrememberthatnowhereinourSolarsystemoffersanenvironmentevenas clementastheAntarcticorthetopofEverest.Spaceprovidesnohavenfromthe Earth'sproblems. Acenturyortwofromnow,theremaybesmallgroupsofpioneersliving independentfromtheEarth.Whateverethicalconstraintsweimposehereonthe ground,weshouldsurelywishsuchpioneersgoodluckingeneticallymodifying theirprogenytoadapttoalienenvironmentsasteptowardsdivergenceintoa newspecies.Theposthumanerawouldthenbegin. WoulditbeappropriatetoexploitMars,ashappenedwhenpioneersadvanced westwardacrosstheUnitedStates?Shouldwesend'seeds'forplantsgenetically engineeredtogrowandreproducethere?OrshouldtheRedPlanetbepreserved asanaturalwilderness,liketheAntarctic? Theanswershould,Ithink,dependonwhatthepristinestateofMarsactuallyis. IftherewereanylifetherealreadyespeciallyifithaddifferentDNA,testifying toquiteseparateoriginfromanylifeonEarththentherewouldbewidely voicedinsistencethatMarsshouldbepreservedunpolluted. Andthisleadstooneoftheothergreatunknowns.Whatcreaturesmightbeout thereinspacealready?Evenevidenceforanybugsorbacteriawouldbeofhuge scientificimportance.Butwhatreallyfuelspopularimaginationistheprospect ofadvancedlifethe'aliens'ofsciencefiction.

Marsisafrigiddesertwithaverythinatmosphere.Theremaybesimplelife there.PerhapsalsointheicecoveredoceansofJupitersmoonEuropa.

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Butnobodyexpectsacomplexbiosphereinanyoftheselocations.Suppose thoughthatwewidenourgazebeyondourSolarSystem. TheItalianmonkandscholarGiordanoBruno,burntatthestakein1600, conjecturedthatthestarswereother'Suns',eachwiththeirretinueofplanets. Fourhundredyearslater,astronomyconfirmsthis.We'velearntthatmanystars indeed,probablybillionsinourGalaxyareorbitedbyplanetsjustastheEarth, MarsandJupitercirclearoundourownstar,theSun. Theplanetsfoundsofarareallbigones,ratherlikeSaturnandJupiter,thegiants ofourSolarSystem.Earthsizedplanetsaroundotherstarsarehardertodetect, butwewon'thavetowaitlongforindirectevidence.Andwithinadecadeortwo, astronomerswillbeabletoviewEarthlikeplanetscirclingdistantstars. Brunospeculatedfurther:onsomeoftheseplanets,heconjectured,theremight becreatures'asmagnificentasthoseuponourhumanearth',hesaid.Andonthis issue,we'velittlemoreevidencetodaythanBrunohad. Thisdoesn'tstopsomefromexpressingfirmopinions,onewayortheother.ButI thinkutteropenmindednessistheonlyrationalstance;weknowtoolittleabout thekeybiologicalissues.Thecosmoscouldteemwithlife;ontheotherhand,our Earthcouldbeuniqueamongthebillionsofplanetsthatsurelyexist.Andevenif 'simple'lifewerewidespread,advancedlifemightberare. Wedon'tknowhowlifebeganhereonEarth.Wedon'tknowwhatledfrom aminoacidstothefirstreplicatingsystems,andtotheintricateproteinchemistry ofmonocellularlife.

Thismighthaveinvolvedaflukesorarethatithappenedonlyonceintheentire 13

Galaxylikeshufflingawholepackofcardsintoaperfectorder.Ontheother hand,itmightturnoutthattheprocesswasalmostinevitablegiventhe'right' environment. Sowemaylearnthiscenturywhetherbiologicalevolutionisuniquetothe'pale bluedot'inthecosmosthatisourhome,orwhetherDarwin'swritrunsthrough awideruniversethatsfulloflife.Wereourbiosphereunique,itwould disappointsome;butincompensation,wethenneedtobeless'cosmically modest'becauseourEarth,tinythoughitis,couldthenbeuniquelyimportant intheentireGalaxy. Ifalienmindsexisted,whatconceptsmightwesharewiththem?They'dbemade ofthesameatoms,they'dgazeout,iftheyhadeyes,atthesamecosmos.Butthey mightfindstringtheoryadoddleandunderstandthingsthatarebeyondour grasp. Andthisthoughttakesmebacktothequestionatthebeginningofthislecture: arethereintrinsiclimitstoourunderstanding,ortoourtechnicalcapacity? Humansaremorethanjustanotherprimatespecies:wearespecial:ourself awarenessandlanguagewereaqualitativeleap,allowingculturalevolution,and thecumulativediversifiedexpertisethatledtoscienceandtechnology. Butsomeaspectsofrealityaunifiedtheoryofphysics,orofconsciousness mighteludeussimplybecausetheyrebeyondhumanbrains,justassurelyas Einstein'sideaswouldbaffleachimpanzee. EversinceDarwin,we'vebeenfamiliarwiththestupendoustimespansofthe evolutionarypastwhichledtoouremergence.Manypeopleenvisagethatwe 14

humansaretheculminationoftheevolutionarytreehereonEarth. Butthatdoesn'tseemplausibletoastronomers,becausetheyreawareofhuge timehorizonsextendingintothefutureaswellasbackintothepast.OurSun formed4.5billionyearsago,butit'sgot6billionmorebeforethefuelrunsout. Andtheexpandinguniversewillcontinueperhapsforeverbecomingever colder,everemptier.AsWoodyAllensaid,'Eternityisverylong,especially towardstheend'.(LAUGHTER)So,eveniflifewerenowuniquetoEarth,there wouldbescopeforposthumanevolutionwhetherorganicorsiliconbasedon theEarthorfarbeyond. Itwon'tbehumanswhowitnesstheSun'sdemise:itwillbeentitiesasdifferent fromusaswearefromabug.Wecan'tconceivewhatpowerstheymighthave. Buttherewillstillbethingstheycan'tdoliketravellingbackintime.Sowe'll neverknowwhattheyknow.Thankyou. (APPLAUSE) SUELAWLEY:MartinRees,thankyouverymuchindeed.Wellwehavewithus hereintheRoyalSociety,inLondon,anaudiencemadeupofexpertsand laypeople,eagertoquestionyouaboutwhatwecanandcantknow.Wevebeen takingquestionsduringthecourseofthelecture,andImgoingtocallDrLucie Green.YoureaspacescientistattheUCLMullardSpaceScienceLab,andyour researchisinthestudyofactivityintheatmosphereofthesun.Yourquestion, please? DRLUCIEGREEN:Yes,Iwasthinkingaboutthefactthatwerelyonminerals andmetalsforhumansurvivalontheEarth,andthesemineralsandmetalsare finiteinsupply.Soratherthanthinkingaboutascientifichumanendeavourin

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space,maywehaveacommercialendeavourwherewegoandmineforthe mineralsandresourcesfromasteroids,forexample,andweseethecreationof thefirstspacebillionaires? MARTINREES:Well,Imeanwedhavetowaitandseewhenpeopleinvestin that.ButIcertainlythinkthatifindeedthereareraremineralsthatwecanmore readilygetfromspace,thenthewaythatwouldhappenisbyroboticfabricators andconstructorswhichcoulddolargeprojectsinspace.Theredbenocaseto sendpeople. SUELAWLEY:Whatisthereoutthere?Imeantheresstuffworthhaving platinumand MARTINREES:Couldbe,yes. DRLUCYGREEN:Thatsright,thereisstuffworthhavingbillionsofpounds worthofmaterial.Andwheretheresmoney,peoplemaygo. MARTINREES:AsIsay,ifprivateentrepreneurswillfundit,acceptinghigh risk,thenitwillhappen. SUELAWLEY:Imgoingtoturnactuallyforaquestiononlifeinspace.Im goingtocallProfessorChandraWickramasinghe,whosDirectoroftheCardiff CentreforAstrobiology.HeworkedwithFredHoyleontheideathatlifemay havebeenseededonEarthfromspace. WICKRAMASINGHE:Martin,youtouchedonthequestionoflifeinthe universe.Intheforeseeablefuture,itseemstomeverylikelythatwewould discoveralienlifealienlifeofsomeformandthequestionIwanttoaskyouis 16

woulddiscoveringsuchalienlifeorevenmakingcontactwiththealienschange thecourseofscience,changethefutureofscience? MARTINREES:Wellitwouldopenupanextremelyfascinatingnewareaof scienceobviously,evenifwefoundsimplelifeelsewhere.Iftherearealienswho arerecognisedasintelligent,ofcourse,thatwouldhaveadifferenteffect,and thiswouldobviouslyrequiresomeadjustmentsonthepathofsometheologians clearlytoaccommodatethat.ButIthinkthequestionthatfascinatesmeishow muchcouldwerelatetothem?Theywouldhavesomethingincommonmaths andphysics,forinstance.Butofcoursetheonethingweknowforsureisthatthe nearesttheywouldbeismanylightyearsaway.Wecouldlistentotheir messages,wecouldsendamessageback,buttheresnoscopeforsnappy reparteeasitwere(LAUGHTER)becauseitwouldtakedecadesforthesignalto gotwoways.Whatwouldbemoreexcitingwouldbetofindlifethathadan independentorigin.IfthereslifeonMarsandthatcamefromtheEarth,orvice versa,thatwouldntbesoexciting.Itwouldstillbepossiblethatlifeisveryrare. Butifwefoundlifeelsewhereinoursolarsystemwhichhadadifferentkindof DNA,thenIwouldimmediatelysaythatlifewaswidespreadintheuniverse.So thatwouldbetheimportantthing. SUELAWLEY:ImgoingtocallProfessorColinPillingerwhossittingatthe backthere.HewastheprincipalinvestigatorfortheBritishBeagle2projectback in2003,whichyoullrecallunfortunatelyfailedtolandonMarsanddisappeared fromsight.Doyoucontinuetobeoptimisticaboutitspossibilities? PROFESSORCOLINPILLINGER:Ihopeso,inanswertothisquestion.We heardyouregoingtoretirelaterthisyear.FortunatelyIvethoughtofanice,new jobforyou.(LAUGHTER)WouldyouliketobethefirstDirectorofthenew

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BritishSpaceAgency?And,ifso,whatmissionwouldyouliketolaunchasyour firstexpedition?Andofcourseyouvetoldushowkeenyouaretofindout whetherwerealoneintheuniverse,andthefirststeppingstonetothatwouldbe Mars.SomaybeyoudliketolaunchthesecondBeagle2;andinsteadofbeinga failure,itwouldbecalledDeferredSuccess.(LAUGHTER) MARTINREES:Yes,yes.Well,first,IdliketopaytributetoColinforwhathe didbecauseBeaglewasahighriskventureandmanymuchmoreexpensive NASAprojectshavehadlesssuccessthanhis.Anditsrathersadthateveryone intheUKhasheardofNASA;mosthaveheardoftheEuropeanSpaceAgency. VeryfewhaveheardabouttheUKspaceeffort. SUELAWLEY:Butdoyouwantthejobthatsonoffer? MARTINREES:Ah,yes.WellIthinkColinwoulddoitbetter.ButIthinkitis veryimportanttohavesomeonewithafairlyhighprofilebecausethereishas beenforseveralyearssomethingcalledtheBritishNationalSpaceCentre.But noonesheardofitandnooneknowswhorunsit,etcetera,andIthinkweneed tohaveasomewhathigherprofileorganisation. SUELAWLEY:Wellthenyouretheperfectman.ImgoingtocallDrFern ElsdonBaker.ShesHeadoftheBritishCouncilDarwinNowproject. DRFERNELSDONBAKER:Thankyou,LordRees.Ijustwantedtoask,given thatyoureinaspeculativemood,doyouthinkthatthefutureofhuman evolutionwillbebiologicalortechnological? MARTINREES:WellIthinkthatsaveryinterestingquestion.Imeanobviously within50yearsmachineswillhavemoreaspectsofhumancapabilitythanthey 18

donow,andofcourseonescenarioisthattheywillthentakeoverandpost humanevolutionwillbesiliconbasedratherthanorganic. SUELAWLEY:Whatarewetalkingabouthere?Bionicman,arewetalking about? MARTINREES:No,justmachines.Andsomepeoplesaythatamachineof humanintelligenceisthelastthingthathumanswouldneedtocreatebecause thenofcoursethemachinewoulditselftakethenextstep.

SUELAWLEY:LetmecallinDrStephenWebster.Ithinkyoureaseniorlecturer insciencecommunication,yes. DRSTEPHENWEBSTER:LordRees,youvespokenverypowerfullyaboutthe potentialofscience,andmyquestionreallyisaboutlifeherenowonEarth.I meanwithsciencesodominant,whyistherestillreligion?AndIvegotasecond parttomyquestion,whichisyouvetalkedaboutthe SUELAWLEY:(over)Ithinkthatsquitebigenough.(LAUGHTER) DRSTEPHENWEBSTER:Well,Iknow.Butifyoucanpermitmeakindof secondscientificquestion. SUELAWLEY:Goonthen. DRSTEPHENWEBSTER:Canscienceaimtounderstandreligion? MARTINREES:WellImeanItaketheviewthatscienceandreligioncanand

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shouldcoexist.RichardDawkinsonhiswebsitecallsmeaWhatdidhecall me?(LAUGHTER) SUELAWLEY:Isntitacompliant? MARTINREES:AcomplaintQuislingbecauseIamtolerantofreligion,andIm entirelyunapologeticatbeingacompliantQuisling. SUELAWLEY:Butitsjustnotyourinclinationtosweepawayallthoughts.Is thatbecauseyoujustdontwanttostiritup? MARTINREES:WellIthinkmyview,tobehonest,isthis:thatfundamentalism isarealdanger,andIthinkweneedalltheallieswecanmusteragainstit.I wouldseethemainstreamreligionsparticularlytheChurchofEnglandas beingonourside,andalsoIthinkweshouldbemoretolerantofthosewhodo havedifferentcultures. SUELAWLEY:WevegotAnthonyGrayling,A.C.Graylinghere,whosadevout atheist.Doyouwanttocomment,Anthony? ANTHONYGRAYLING:Idontknowwhatitistobeadevoutatheistanymore thanwhatitwouldbetobeadevoutnonstampcollector.But(LAUGHTER) MARTINREES:Hear,hear. ANTHONYGRAYLING:WhatIwouldsaytoMartinisthattherearepeople whohaveareligiouscommitmentwhoareveryhostiletoaspectsofsciencein particularthosethatinvolveletussaystemcellresearchortherapeuticcloning; andotherareastooforexampleinscienceeducationonthebiologicalfront, 20

evolutionarybiology.Anditseemstomethatonecantreallystandonthe sidelineswhenitcomestothosesortsofdebates;andalthoughonealways applaudspeoplewhoareconciliatoryandeirenicasyouareonthesematters surelythereisalinethatcantbecrossedthere? MARTINREES:WellIthinkcreationisminitsliteralsenseissomethingwhich couldnotbeacceptedbyanyastronomerorbiologistobviously.ButIthinkwhen wegettobioethics,thentheresacontinuumandpeopledrawtheline differently.Imeanmostpeople,whethertheyclaimtobeatheistsornot,maybe againsthumanreproductivecloning,forinstance,andsoIthinkitswrongtosay thatrationaliststhinkonewayandreligiouspeoplethinkanotherway.Theresa continuumandwhetheryouvegotareligiousviewornone,thenyoustillhave todecidehowfarshouldwegoinapplicationsoftechnologiesinbiology.

SUELAWLEY:Letsmoveontoanothereasytopic:consciousness.(LAUGHTER) NathanWilliamshashandedinaquestion.Whereareyou?Thankyou. NATHANWILLIAMS:Hello.Wehavearoomherefullofextraordinaryminds, allofwhomhavebeenfascinatedbyyourlecture,butitseemstomethatscience atthemomenthasverylittleideawhythesecollectionsofatomsinourbrains arefascinated.Itseemswedontevenknowhowtoreallyaskthatquestionhow wellknowwhenwevefoundconsciousness?Doyouthinksciencewillever explainconsciousness? MARTINREES:Ijustdontknow.ImeanIthinkthatisoneoftheEverest problemsofscience,asitwere,therealsummit.ImeanImverygladthatthere aresomepeoplewhothinkthatitcouldbesolvedbecauseunlesstheythinkit couldbesolved,theywonteventrytosolveit.Itsgoodsomearetrying.Andwe 21

dontknowhowlongitllbebeforewegettothatparticularsummit. SUE LAWLEY: Well we have here Colin Blakemore, whos Professor of Neuroscience at Oxford and a former Head of the Medical Research Council. He is also a former Reith Lecturer. He did it back in 76 when I think you were, and you remain.. I think you hold the record as being the youngest ever.. you were 32 years old at the time, Colin COLIN BLAKEMORE: Thank you, Sue, for revealing my history to the whole room, thats kind of you. (LAUGHTER) What I really wanted to ask about was reductionism. Atoms do make neurons, neurons do make up brains, brains produce behaviour. So if you really think that, in principle, complex phenomena cannot be explained in terms of its constituent atoms, molecules, then what else is there that could determine, say human behaviour? MARTIN REES: Well, regarding reductionism, I agree that we are all solutions of Schroedingers equation etc. But what I was saying was thats not the most useful explanation. Lets take a non-biological example, lets take fluid mechanics. When someone tries to understand why water waves break, why waves go turbulent, etc, they treat the water as a continuum they dont care that the water is made up of molecules. COLIN BLAKEMORE: So youre not saying that there are forces operating that, say create life or free will or consciousness, which are fundamentally different from the causal processes that operate in the physical world MARTIN REES: Absolutely not, no. Im just saying that the kind of explanation we seek in each science is an explanation on that particular level, and the simplest example I can give is the fluid dynamics. SUELAWLEY:CanIcallGrahamFarmelowhohandedinaquestion? GRAHAMFARMILOE:Yes,mynamesGrahamFarmelo.Imawriteranda renegadeparticlephysicist.Iwantedtoasksomethingaboutbudgetsand whetherforsomephysiciststheirscientificcuriositymightbeoutrunbythe governmentbudgetsthattheyreprovidedwith.Areyouatallworriedthat

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governmentsmightsoonstopfundingexperimentsliketheLargeHadron Collider,sothatphysicistswontevenbeabletotesttheirmostadvanced theories? MARTINREES:ObviouslytheLargeHadronColliderinGenevaisperhapsthe worldsbiggestscientificinstrumentandeveryonesaysisntithugelyexpensive? ThewayIdanswerthatistosaythatparticlephysicsisabranchofsciencethat doesrequirethesebigexperiments.Andifyoulookatwhatsbeingspentonit, itsabout2percentoftheUKsciencebudget,andIthink2percentoftheUK sciencebudgetgoingtothisveryfundamentalareaisaboutright.Itsjustthat that2percentisspentaspartofa20yearprojectinvolvingdozensofother countrieswhoareallcooperatinginaratherinspiringwayactuallytobuildone hugemachine.Butoverall,IthinkwehavetomakesurethatweintheUKdont loseourcompetitivenessbecausewehavestrengthinscience.AndwhatIthink verystronglythereisthatinanenvironmentwheretheObamaadministration hasprovidedabigstimuluspackageashaveFrance,GermanyandCanadawe intheUKneedtohaveasimilarresponse,otherwisewewillloseourverystrong competitiveadvantage. SUELAWLEY:Well,asithappens,wehaveDavidWillettshere,theScience Minister.Thecutsarecoming,MrWilletts.Aretheygoingtohitthescience budget? DAVIDWILLETTS:WellIthinkthateverybodyunderstandsthattimesare gettingtougheraroundtheworld,butwhenitcomestotheLargeHadron Collider,IthoughtMartincouldhavecitedtheexchangewhentheBritish governmentunderMargaretThatcherdecidedtobacktheLargeHadron Collider.AlotoftheadvicetoMargaretThatcherwasthatitwastooexpensive

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andwouldntyieldaneconomicreturnandshessupposedtohavecommented, Yes,butitsveryinteresting.(LAUGHTER)Andthatistheotherargumentfor scienceandnotonethatweshouldlosesightof. MARTINREES:IfIcouldcomebackonthat,Ithinkitsveryimportantto supportscienceacrossthewholeareabecausewhatgetsyoungpeopleinto scienceisoftentheseratherfundamentalareaslikespace,astronomyandparticle physics;andunlesswegetthemintoscience,thenwewontstaffouruniversities, wewontstaffallourindustries,etcetera.SoIthinkeverythinghastobeseenasa whole.AndifyoulookatwhatshappeningintheUS,thatsthelinetheytake andwevegottotryandmatchwhattheyredoing. SUELAWLEY:Anddoesthisgovernment,MrWilletts,findsciencevery interesting? DAVIDWILLETTS:IthinkthatwhatMartinjustsaidisabsolutelytrueandthe importanceofencouragingsuccessivegenerationsintoscientificresearchisvery important.Thetroubleisthattimesaretoughandnobodysgoingtobeableto guaranteeanyparticularbudget.But,yes,Martinmakesaveryeloquentcase. SUELAWLEY:Heresalastquestion.KatArney? KATARNEY:Ratherflippant,butwillweeverknowwheretheoddsocksgo? MARTINREES:(LAUGHS)Yes.Ah,Ithinkthatsaverybigmystery,butIthink ithighlightsthepointthateventhoughIcouldtalkwithsomeconfidenceabout thefirstfewsecondsafterthebigbang,manyoftheeverydayproblemsare actuallymuchmoredifficultandcantbesolvedyet.

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SUELAWLEY:But,Martin,wereallfascinatedbyallofthesetopics multiverses,alienlife,consciousnessandsoon.Andthepaceofdiscovery increasesallofthetime,andoverthepast150yearsitsgotfasterandfasterand faster.ImeanIknowscientistsdontlikegivingustheirhunches,butisyour hunchthatwemightstartgettingtheanswerstothesebigquestionswhichweve beenairingtonightinthefirsthalfofthiscentury? MARTINREES:Someofthem.Iwouldhopewellunderstandtheoriginoflife onEarth;wemighthaveevidenceforlifeelsewhere.Whetherwehaveasortof fundamentaltheoryofallthephysicalforces,Idontknow.ButIthinkitis importantthatasscienceadvances,newquestionsdocomeintofocuswhich couldntbeposed,andthefactthatwecantalkwithafairlystraightfaceabout whattheuniversewaslikewhenitwasamillisecondoldissomethingwhich wouldhaveastonishedpeople50yearsago.Thereasonwevemadethese advancesisbecausesciencehasadvancedinsymbiosiswithtechnologyand weveseenhowtechnologyisaccelerating.Sothatmakesmeveryoptimisticthat evenifwewontsolveallproblems,wewillbeaddressingproblems25years fromnowthatwecantevenformulatenow. SUELAWLEY:MartinRees,thankyouverymuch.Thatsallwehavetimefor thisweek.Thankyouforyourquestions,audience.Nextweekwellbeatthe headquartersoftheOpenUniversityinMiltonKeyneswhereProfessorReeswill concludehislecturesbywarningthatweneedtochangeourprioritiesifwereto avoidacalamitousfuture.ThatsRunawayWorldatthesametimenextweek. Untilthen,MartinRees,ReithLecturer2010,thankyouverymuch.Andfromthe RoyalSociety,goodbye. (APPLAUSE)

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