5/30/2009

Courtesy flickr user Chandra Marsono.

Image from W k media Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org

Please see any diagram of the electric grid, such as http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Electricity_grid_schema-_lang-en.jpg

Facing the Challenges of Distributed Energy Generation

Image from Wikimedia Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org

Courtesy NASA.

The Question
Courtesy Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

What needs to be done to support the introduction of 100% solar power (130 GW of distributed PV) in New England by the end of 2013?
Photo credit: ISO New England, 2007 State of the Market Report

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Agenda
Background Grid Constraints Potential Solutions Implementations Conclusions

Image removed due to copyright restrictions. Please http://www.sunfarmnetwork.com/images/Home_2.jpg

Photo credit: Sun Farm Network via Evergreen Solar

Background
Generation Power plant generates electrons Transmission Voltage is stepped up and transmitted along highvoltage power lines Distribution Voltage is stepped down by transformers and distributed to retail customers

Photo credit: Energy Information Agency, US Department of Energy

New England Power

26 GW Peak Power 39B kWh annually $0.1668 per kWh

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System Architecture
Centralized Distributed

Generation Points Consumption Points

Constraints
Problem Scale Severity Certainty % Adoption Overall

No power source when PV is off Bi-directional current flow Utilities cant allocate capital correctly Cannot model insolation to predict PV energy production Time constant for managing dispatchable resources is too currently too long Transmission and distribution cost structure (w/ high PV penetration) is currently unmodeled PV produces DC power (not the commonly used AC) Limited transmission capacity of power lines in some areas Power quality No detailed sensing of the state of the grid Physical resets of fail safes (i.e. circuit breakers) Utilities cannot strategically and precisely direct power to individual users

30 35 60 50 40 60 1 80 45 latent latent latent

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Priority Constraints
Constraint Scale Severity Probability % Adoption Overall Importance

NonDispatchability: Grid Stability:

Need for storage, intermittent generation

Bi-directional current flow, communications and control

Utility Transition:

Unknown PV supply, T&D cost structure, power quality

Technological Solutions
Smart Grid Sensors Software Storage: Batteries Pumped hydroelectric Bi-directional transformers
Photo credit: Energy Information Agency, US Department of Energy

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Modeling Assumptions
6.5 million households and businesses ~39B kWh consumed annually in New England 26 GWp average draw $280/kWh average cost of battery storage 5 days of storage required to avoid problems from intermittency Average system price of $5.38/Wp installed

Architecture I: Cut the Wires

100%: Distributed power production and storage

1%: Current state 10%: Government forces utilities to cease capital expenditures and adopt new revenue streams (e.g. installation) 30%: Power provided by solar during the day, traditional at night 65%: Some substation networks move off grid

Total predicted cost: $850 billion

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Architecture II: Micro-Networks

100% : Isolated Micro-Networks with communal storage

15%: Smart Grid sensors are installed; T&D retain traditional business, with alternate price structure 30%: Electrical hardware is updated at substation level 50%: Micro-Networks established, still rely on centralized generation; Generation companies manage the remaining emergency power plants, and look to new sources of revenue.

Total predicted cost: $700 billion

Architecture III: General Network

100% : General network with neighborhood and centralized storage

15%: Smart Grid sensors are installed; T&D retain traditional business, with alternate price structure 30%: Electrical hardware is updated at substation level 50%: Micro-Networks established, still rely on centralized generation; Generation companies manage the remaining emergency power plants, and look to new sources of revenue.

Total predicted cost: $625 billion

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Implementation Challenges
Problem Scale Severity Certainty % Adoption Overall

No power source when PV is off Bi-directional current flow Utilities cant allocate capital correctly

30 35 60 50 40 60 1 80 45 latent latent latent

Negative network Cannoteffects model insolation to predict PV energy production Time constant for managing dispatchable resources is too currently too long Warm beer Transmission and distribution cost structure (w/ high PV Regulatory approval penetration) is currently unmodeled PV produces DC power (not the commonly used AC) Physical installation Limited transmission capacity of power lines in some areas
Power quality No detailed sensing of the state of the grid Physical resets of fail safes (i.e. circuit breakers) Utilities cannot strategically and precisely direct power to individual users

Recommendations
Issues: non-dispatchability, grid stability, power quality Common technological solutions: storage, transformers, smart grids Network is preferred architecture Utilities will fundamentally change their business models Government can help: financial incentives

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Questions?

Special thanks to Mike Rogol, d Ph oto nC ons ultin g. Rogol, Mark Farburg, Farburg, an and hot on Co nsulti ng . 2.626 Fundamentals of Pho tov oltaic s Phot ovolta ics Prof. Tonio Buonassisi, Buonassisi, Fall 2008 2008