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Periodo

MILLONES

MILLONES

MILES

MILES DE MILLONES91 DIAS

MILLONES

DE DOLARES

DE DOLARES

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

REMESAS

PIB MX

PIB USA

CETES

FBKF (I)
192,837,110

IED

1995/01

1982.817

789.996

5826003719

7,307.7

49.060

1995/02

2913.607

1009.023

5600037018

7,355.8

57.623

168,422,639

1995/03

2254.719

1019.322

5691934606

7,452.5

36.640

166,820,749
189,687,703

1995/04

2375.157

854.383

5962216993

7,542.5

47.817

1996/01

2027.668

932.753

5891226773

7,638.2

41.767

185,432,161

1996/02

1779.942

1172.174

5955682235

7,800.0

32.583

197,745,367
210,697,803

1996/03

2004.378

1098.989

6073486667

7,892.7

29.537

1996/04

3373.463

1019.762

6427559423

8,023.0

27.710

241,566,662
220,498,277

1997/01

2109.241

1052.148

6152807218

8,137.0

22.973

1997/02

2594.518

1365.788

6492761735

8,276.8

21.453

247,478,806

1997/03

5594.98

1302.056

6569860091

8,409.9

20.057

258,623,431
284,589,118

1997/04

2530.817

1144.854

6898432227

8,505.7

20.600

1998/01

2620.8186

1176.124

6665227031

8,600.6

19.923

269,835,103

1998/02

3477.683

1463.858

6779735047

8,698.6

19.770

273,742,257
283,560,167

1998/03

3295.1097

1457.224

6891651789

8,847.2

29.357

1998/04

3313.5336

1529.638

7072200643

9,027.5

35.713

288,013,581

1999/01

3525.6642

1253.389

6833076833

9,148.6

28.283

285,559,164

1999/02

3395.7421

1562.666

6997209329

9,252.6

21.140

295,524,329

1999/03

3018.3991

1529.341

7148246491

9,405.1

21.203

302,973,686
317,057,090

1999/04

3929.7862

1564.236

7410151130

9,607.7

18.877

2000/01

4520.7958

1397.861

7298852761

9,709.5

16.110

320,950,349

2000/02

4764.975

1631.147

7467037675

9,949.1

15.520

331,376,757
339,393,951

2000/03

3031.3497

1734.153

7604284603

10,017.5

15.493

2000/04

5781.0621

1809.382

7711444345

10,129.8

17.493

345,811,675

2001/01

3538.7528

2010.711

7310622304

10,165.1

17.680

322,640,696
314,087,285

2001/02

5138.3226

2280.887

7424984882

10,301.3

12.760

2001/03

16268.283

2357.981

7483060755

10,305.2

9.890

310,390,102
315,008,668

2001/04

4828.8116

2245.684

7576346882

10,373.1

8.633

2002/01

5008.7086

2174.435

7110694282

10,498.7

7.610

302,159,944

2002/02

6067.5055

2578.08

7523677198

10,601.9

6.860

324,733,600
310,071,582

2002/03

6087.7807

2552.8111

7517032580

10,701.7

7.590

2002/04

6472.2487

2509.122

7670055408

10,766.9

7.777

317,103,966

2003/01

3904.4675

3170.1267

7367050447

10,887.4

8.890

307,126,688
313,955,391

2003/02

5426.8043

3904.6473

7539706233

11,011.6

6.373

2003/03

2929.2677

4128.1167

7535289460

11,255.1

5.193

315,985,455

2003/04

4318.073

3935.7957

7781167392

11,414.8

5.597

321,629,474

2004/01

9122.7049

3733.8612

7620258155

11,589.9

5.650

320,667,476

2004/02

4052.2383

4968.6377

7823421276

11,762.9

6.767

332,238,051
343,690,009

2004/03

3096.272

5028.0246

7871310096

11,936.3

7.517

2004/04

7539.2968

4601.2245

8133297810

12,123.9

8.470

356,551,888

2005/01

6287.8145

4487.5229

7773298608

12,361.8

9.263

341,655,239
360,377,458

2005/02

5854.4909

5733.8606

8117334064

12,500.0

9.893

2005/03

5295.1793

5785.514

8141697897

12,728.6

9.523

367,570,597

2005/04

4913.9955

5681.3734

8424010420

12,901.4

8.637

386,750,005

UNIDAD %
inflacion
15.349814
15.95499468
5.725901285
5.162660412
14.80059151
5.086911584
2.891631764
3.230151051
12.43545244
1.563871019
1.123550958
1.510507696
10.59043636
1.414042674
1.550286809
3.223963453
11.56379789
0.793891448
0.345943495
0.762120911
8.473298991
-0.123189665
-0.130000842
0.660207015
7.022550425
-0.662903584
-0.962910178
-0.063343584
6.536769379
-0.63608493
-0.512402832
0.024322903
6.634777958
-1.296168524
-1.148752452
-0.067788481
6.992872665
-1.3293287
-0.672167033
0.455620164
6.039053452
-1.224975725
-1.182860465
-0.388266472

MILLONES

UNIDAD %

DE DOLARES

Periodo

REMESAS

inflacion

MILES

MILES DE MILLONES

MILLONES

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

DE DOLARES

PIB MX

PIB USA

IED

1995/01

789.996

15.349814

5826003719

7,307.7

1982.817

1995/02

1009.023

15.95499468

5600037018

7,355.8

2913.607

1995/03

1019.322

5.725901285

5691934606

7,452.5

2254.719

1995/04

854.383

5.162660412

5962216993

7,542.5

2375.157

1996/01

932.753

14.80059151

5891226773

7,638.2

2027.668

1996/02

1172.174

5.086911584

5955682235

7,800.0

1779.942

1996/03

1098.989

2.891631764

6073486667

7,892.7

2004.378

1996/04

1019.762

3.230151051

6427559423

8,023.0

3373.463

1997/01

1052.148

12.43545244

6152807218

8,137.0

2109.241

1997/02

1365.788

1.563871019

6492761735

8,276.8

2594.518

1997/03

1302.056

1.123550958

6569860091

8,409.9

5594.98

1997/04

1144.854

1.510507696

6898432227

8,505.7

2530.817

1998/01

1176.124

10.59043636

6665227031

8,600.6

2620.8186

1998/02

1463.858

1.414042674

6779735047

8,698.6

3477.683

1998/03

1457.224

1.550286809

6891651789

8,847.2

3295.1097

1998/04

1529.638

3.223963453

7072200643

9,027.5

3313.5336

1999/01

1253.389

11.56379789

6833076833

9,148.6

3525.6642

1999/02

1562.666

0.793891448

6997209329

9,252.6

3395.7421

1999/03

1529.341

0.345943495

7148246491

9,405.1

3018.3991

1999/04

1564.236

0.762120911

7410151130

9,607.7

3929.7862

2000/01

1397.861

8.473298991

7298852761

9,709.5

4520.7958

2000/02

1631.147

-0.123189665

7467037675

9,949.1

4764.975

2000/03

1734.153

-0.130000842

7604284603

10,017.5

3031.3497

2000/04

1809.382

0.660207015

7711444345

10,129.8

5781.0621

2001/01

2010.711

7.022550425

7310622304

10,165.1

3538.7528

2001/02

2280.887

-0.662903584

7424984882

10,301.3

5138.3226

2001/03

2357.981

-0.962910178

7483060755

10,305.2

16268.283

2001/04

2245.684

-0.063343584

7576346882

10,373.1

4828.8116

2002/01

2174.435

6.536769379

7110694282

10,498.7

5008.7086

2002/02

2578.08

-0.63608493

7523677198

10,601.9

6067.5055

2002/03

2552.8111

-0.512402832

7517032580

10,701.7

6087.7807

2002/04

2509.122

0.024322903

7670055408

10,766.9

6472.2487

2003/01

3170.1267

6.634777958

7367050447

10,887.4

3904.4675

2003/02

3904.6473

-1.296168524

7539706233

11,011.6

5426.8043

2003/03

4128.1167

-1.148752452

7535289460

11,255.1

2929.2677

2003/04

3935.7957

-0.067788481

7781167392

11,414.8

4318.073

2004/01

3733.8612

6.992872665

7620258155

11,589.9

9122.7049

2004/02

4968.6377

-1.3293287

7823421276

11,762.9

4052.2383

2004/03

5028.0246

-0.672167033

7871310096

11,936.3

3096.272

2004/04

4601.2245

0.455620164

8133297810

12,123.9

7539.2968

2005/01

4487.5229

6.039053452

7773298608

12,361.8

6287.8145

2005/02

5733.8606

-1.224975725

8117334064

12,500.0

5854.4909

2005/03

5785.514

-1.182860465

8141697897

12,728.6

5295.1793

2005/04

5681.3734

-0.388266472

8424010420

12,901.4

4913.9955

R2 DE INFLACION

UNIDAD %
Periodo

inflacion

MILES

MILES DE MILLONES

MILLONES

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

DE DOLARES

PIB MX

PIB USA

IED

1995/01

15.349814

5826003719

7,307.7

1982.817

1995/02

15.95499468

5600037018

7,355.8

2913.607

1995/03

5.725901285

5691934606

7,452.5

2254.719

1995/04

5.162660412

5962216993

7,542.5

2375.157

1996/01

14.80059151

5891226773

7,638.2

2027.668

1996/02

5.086911584

5955682235

7,800.0

1779.942

1996/03

2.891631764

6073486667

7,892.7

2004.378

1996/04

3.230151051

6427559423

8,023.0

3373.463

1997/01

12.43545244

6152807218

8,137.0

2109.241

1997/02

1.563871019

6492761735

8,276.8

2594.518

Estadsticas de la

1997/03

1.123550958

6569860091

8,409.9

5594.98

1997/04

1.510507696

6898432227

8,505.7

2530.817

1998/01

10.59043636

6665227031

8,600.6

2620.8186

1998/02

1.414042674

6779735047

8,698.6

3477.683

1998/03

1.550286809

6891651789

8,847.2

3295.1097

1998/04

3.223963453

7072200643

9,027.5

3313.5336

1999/01

11.56379789

6833076833

9,148.6

3525.6642

1999/02

0.793891448

6997209329

9,252.6

3395.7421

1999/03

0.345943495

7148246491

9,405.1

3018.3991

1999/04

0.762120911

7410151130

9,607.7

3929.7862

2000/01

8.473298991

7298852761

9,709.5

4520.7958

2000/02

-0.123189665

7467037675

9,949.1

4764.975

2000/03

-0.130000842

7604284603

10,017.5

3031.3497

2000/04

0.660207015

7711444345

10,129.8

5781.0621

2001/01

7.022550425

7310622304

10,165.1

3538.7528

2001/02

-0.662903584

7424984882

10,301.3

5138.3226

2001/03

-0.962910178

7483060755

10,305.2

16268.283

2001/04

-0.063343584

7576346882

10,373.1

4828.8116

2002/01

6.536769379

7110694282

10,498.7

5008.7086

2002/02

-0.63608493

7523677198

10,601.9

6067.5055

2002/03

-0.512402832

7517032580

10,701.7

6087.7807

2002/04

0.024322903

7670055408

10,766.9

6472.2487

2003/01

6.634777958

7367050447

10,887.4

3904.4675

2003/02

-1.296168524

7539706233

11,011.6

5426.8043

2003/03

-1.148752452

7535289460

11,255.1

2929.2677

2003/04

-0.067788481

7781167392

11,414.8

4318.073

2004/01

6.992872665

7620258155

11,589.9

9122.7049

2004/02

-1.3293287

7823421276

11,762.9

4052.2383

2004/03

-0.672167033

7871310096

11,936.3

3096.272

2004/04

0.455620164

8133297810

12,123.9

7539.2968

2005/01

6.039053452

7773298608

12,361.8

6287.8145

2005/02

-1.224975725

8117334064

12,500.0

5854.4909

2005/03

-1.182860465

8141697897

12,728.6

5295.1793

2005/04

-0.388266472

8424010420

12,901.4

4913.9955

PIB DE
MEXICO

Periodo

MILES

MILES DE MILLONESMILLONES

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

PIB MX

PIB USA

UNIDAD %

DE DOLARES

IED

inflacion

1995/01

5826003719

7,307.7

1982.817

15.349814

1995/02

5600037018

7,355.8

2913.607

15.95499468

1995/03

5691934606

7,452.5

2254.719

5.725901285

1995/04

5962216993

7,542.5

2375.157

5.162660412

Estadsticas de la

1996/01

5891226773

7,638.2

2027.668

14.80059151

1996/02

5955682235

7,800.0

1779.942

5.086911584

1996/03

6073486667

7,892.7

2004.378

2.891631764

1996/04

6427559423

8,023.0

3373.463

3.230151051

1997/01

6152807218

8,137.0

2109.241

12.43545244

1997/02

6492761735

8,276.8

2594.518

1.563871019

1997/03

6569860091

8,409.9

5594.98

1.123550958

1997/04

6898432227

8,505.7

2530.817

1.510507696

1998/01

6665227031

8,600.6

2620.8186

10.59043636

1998/02

6779735047

8,698.6

3477.683

1.414042674

1998/03

6891651789

8,847.2

3295.1097

1.550286809

1998/04

7072200643

9,027.5

3313.5336

3.223963453

1999/01

6833076833

9,148.6

3525.6642

11.56379789

1999/02

6997209329

9,252.6

3395.7421

0.793891448

1999/03

7148246491

9,405.1

3018.3991

0.345943495

1999/04

7410151130

9,607.7

3929.7862

0.762120911

2000/01

7298852761

9,709.5

4520.7958

8.473298991

2000/02

7467037675

9,949.1

4764.975

-0.123189665

2000/03

7604284603

10,017.5

3031.3497

-0.130000842

2000/04

7711444345

10,129.8

5781.0621

0.660207015

2001/01

7310622304

10,165.1

3538.7528

7.022550425

2001/02

7424984882

10,301.3

5138.3226

-0.662903584

2001/03

7483060755

10,305.2

16268.283

-0.962910178

2001/04

7576346882

10,373.1

4828.8116

-0.063343584

2002/01

7110694282

10,498.7

5008.7086

6.536769379

2002/02

7523677198

10,601.9

6067.5055

-0.63608493

2002/03

7517032580

10,701.7

6087.7807

-0.512402832

2002/04

7670055408

10,766.9

6472.2487

0.024322903

2003/01

7367050447

10,887.4

3904.4675

6.634777958

2003/02

7539706233

11,011.6

5426.8043

-1.296168524

2003/03

7535289460

11,255.1

2929.2677

-1.148752452

2003/04

7781167392

11,414.8

4318.073

-0.067788481

2004/01

7620258155

11,589.9

9122.7049

6.992872665

2004/02

7823421276

11,762.9

4052.2383

-1.3293287

2004/03

7871310096

11,936.3

3096.272

-0.672167033

2004/04

8133297810

12,123.9

7539.2968

0.455620164

2005/01

7773298608

12,361.8

6287.8145

6.039053452

2005/02

8117334064

12,500.0

5854.4909

-1.224975725

2005/03

8141697897

12,728.6

5295.1793

-1.182860465

2005/04

8424010420

12,901.4

4913.9955

-0.388266472

PIB USA

MILES DE MILLONESMILLONES
DE DOLARES

Periodo

PIB USA

UNIDAD %

DE DOLARES

IED

MILES
DE PESOS

inflacion

Estadsticas de la

PIB MX

1995/01

7,307.7

1982.817

15.349814

5826003719

1995/02

7,355.8

2913.607

15.95499468

5600037018

1995/03

7,452.5

2254.719

5.725901285

5691934606

1995/04

7,542.5

2375.157

5.162660412

5962216993

1996/01

7,638.2

2027.668

14.80059151

5891226773

1996/02

7,800.0

1779.942

5.086911584

5955682235

1996/03

7,892.7

2004.378

2.891631764

6073486667

1996/04

8,023.0

3373.463

3.230151051

6427559423

1997/01

8,137.0

2109.241

12.43545244

6152807218

1997/02

8,276.8

2594.518

1.563871019

6492761735

1997/03

8,409.9

5594.98

1.123550958

6569860091

1997/04

8,505.7

2530.817

1.510507696

6898432227

1998/01

8,600.6

2620.8186

10.59043636

6665227031

1998/02

8,698.6

3477.683

1.414042674

6779735047

1998/03

8,847.2

3295.1097

1.550286809

6891651789

1998/04

9,027.5

3313.5336

3.223963453

7072200643

1999/01

9,148.6

3525.6642

11.56379789

6833076833

1999/02

9,252.6

3395.7421

0.793891448

6997209329

1999/03

9,405.1

3018.3991

0.345943495

7148246491

1999/04

9,607.7

3929.7862

0.762120911

7410151130

2000/01

9,709.5

4520.7958

8.473298991

7298852761

2000/02

9,949.1

4764.975

-0.123189665

7467037675

2000/03

10,017.5

3031.3497

-0.130000842

7604284603

2000/04

10,129.8

5781.0621

0.660207015

7711444345

2001/01

10,165.1

3538.7528

7.022550425

7310622304

2001/02

10,301.3

5138.3226

-0.662903584

7424984882

2001/03

10,305.2

16268.283

-0.962910178

7483060755

2001/04

10,373.1

4828.8116

-0.063343584

7576346882

2002/01

10,498.7

5008.7086

6.536769379

7110694282

2002/02

10,601.9

6067.5055

-0.63608493

7523677198

2002/03

10,701.7

6087.7807

-0.512402832

7517032580

2002/04

10,766.9

6472.2487

0.024322903

7670055408

2003/01

10,887.4

3904.4675

6.634777958

7367050447

2003/02

11,011.6

5426.8043

-1.296168524

7539706233

2003/03

11,255.1

2929.2677

-1.148752452

7535289460

2003/04

11,414.8

4318.073

-0.067788481

7781167392

2004/01

11,589.9

9122.7049

6.992872665

7620258155

2004/02

11,762.9

4052.2383

-1.3293287

7823421276

2004/03

11,936.3

3096.272

-0.672167033

7871310096

2004/04

12,123.9

7539.2968

0.455620164

8133297810

2005/01

12,361.8

6287.8145

6.039053452

7773298608

2005/02

12,500.0

5854.4909

-1.224975725

8117334064

2005/03

12,728.6

5295.1793

-1.182860465

8141697897

2005/04

12,901.4

-0.388266472

4913.9955

8424010420

IED
MILLONES

UNIDAD %

DE DOLARES

MILES

MILES DE MILLONES

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

PIB MX

PIB USA

Periodo

IED

1995/01

1982.817

15.349814

5826003719

7,307.7

1995/02

2913.607

15.95499468

5600037018

7,355.8

1995/03

2254.719

5.725901285

5691934606

7,452.5

1995/04

2375.157

5.162660412

5962216993

7,542.5

1996/01

2027.668

14.80059151

5891226773

7,638.2

1996/02

1779.942

5.086911584

5955682235

7,800.0

1996/03

2004.378

2.891631764

6073486667

7,892.7

1996/04

3373.463

3.230151051

6427559423

8,023.0

1997/01

2109.241

12.43545244

6152807218

8,137.0

1997/02

2594.518

1.563871019

6492761735

8,276.8

1997/03

5594.98

1.123550958

6569860091

8,409.9

1997/04

2530.817

1.510507696

6898432227

8,505.7

1998/01

2620.8186

10.59043636

6665227031

8,600.6

1998/02

3477.683

1.414042674

6779735047

8,698.6

1998/03

3295.1097

1.550286809

6891651789

8,847.2

1998/04

3313.5336

3.223963453

7072200643

9,027.5

1999/01

3525.6642

11.56379789

6833076833

9,148.6

1999/02

3395.7421

0.793891448

6997209329

9,252.6

1999/03

3018.3991

0.345943495

7148246491

9,405.1

1999/04

3929.7862

0.762120911

7410151130

9,607.7

2000/01

4520.7958

8.473298991

7298852761

9,709.5

2000/02

4764.975

-0.123189665

7467037675

9,949.1

2000/03

3031.3497

-0.130000842

7604284603

10,017.5

2000/04

5781.0621

0.660207015

7711444345

10,129.8

2001/01

3538.7528

7.022550425

7310622304

10,165.1

2001/02

5138.3226

-0.662903584

7424984882

10,301.3

2001/03

16268.283

-0.962910178

7483060755

10,305.2

2001/04

4828.8116

-0.063343584

7576346882

10,373.1

2002/01

5008.7086

6.536769379

7110694282

10,498.7

2002/02

6067.5055

-0.63608493

7523677198

10,601.9

2002/03

6087.7807

-0.512402832

7517032580

10,701.7

2002/04

6472.2487

0.024322903

7670055408

10,766.9

2003/01

3904.4675

6.634777958

7367050447

10,887.4

inflacion

Estadsticas de la

2003/02

5426.8043

-1.296168524

7539706233

11,011.6

2003/03

2929.2677

-1.148752452

7535289460

11,255.1

2003/04

4318.073

-0.067788481

7781167392

11,414.8

2004/01

9122.7049

6.992872665

7620258155

11,589.9

2004/02

4052.2383

-1.3293287

7823421276

11,762.9

2004/03

3096.272

-0.672167033

7871310096

11,936.3

2004/04

7539.2968

0.455620164

8133297810

12,123.9

2005/01

6287.8145

6.039053452

7773298608

12,361.8

2005/02

5854.4909

-1.224975725

8117334064

12,500.0

2005/03

5295.1793

-1.182860465

8141697897

12,728.6

2005/04

4913.9955

-0.388266472

8424010420

12,901.4

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
Variable X 4

Anlisis de los residuales


Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA

0.71425285
0.51015713
0.47341891
3.57836715
44

Regresin
Residuos
Total

Grados de libertad
3
40
43

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

Coeficientes
47.1066762
-9.4667E-09
0.00241092
-2.2205E-05

Error tpico
7.70270782
2.34369E-09
0.001052485
0.000259352

R2 GLOBAL:

0.937392146

INFLACION
PIB MX
PIB USA
IED

0.510157127
0.928700219
0.909115749
0.269353947

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2

Suma de cuadrados
533.4294064
512.1884597
1045.617866

0.96369094
0.92870022

R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.92335274
203456318
44

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

Grados de libertad
3
40
43

Suma de cuadrados

Coeficientes
3527609319
370067.018
11720.4519
-30603519.8

Error tpico

2.1567E+19
1.65578E+18
2.32228E+19

245039225.2
25040.38996
14630.49677
7576572.222

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.95347562
0.90911575
0.90229943
505.443796
44

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

Grados de libertad
3
40
43
Coeficientes
-6617.24399
0.0090271
48.101428
2.2839E-06

Suma de cuadrados
102220095.4
10218937.26
112439032.7
Error tpico
1093.567358
0.036608942
20.99867293
1.54541E-07

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.51899321
0.26935395
0.21455549
2181.35259
44

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

Grados de libertad
3
40
43
Coeficientes
-6843.67904
-8.25160134
1.3473E-06
0.16813342

Suma de cuadrados
70166212.35
190331965.3
260498177.6
Error tpico
6441.447707
96.37650755
1.68178E-06
0.681856802

de la regresin
0.968190139
0.937392146
0.930970828
396.5433185
44

Grados de libertad
4
39
43

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
91820229.11
22955057.28
6132617.533
157246.6034
97952846.64

Coeficientes
362.5477213
-51.45041465
-1.95819E-06
1.663498924
-0.054863353

Error tpico
1187.38405
17.5216799
3.08169E-07
0.12404743
0.028743177

Pronstico para Y
211.9487621
652.2453308
1195.592808
838.4152723
659.8131912
1316.115331
1340.273176
771.1564401
1094.554729
1194.140402
1122.618259
786.7765484
929.1983757
1293.111831
1324.160494
1183.418559

Residuos
578.0472379
356.7776692
-176.2708076
15.96772773
272.9398088
-143.941331
-241.2841758
248.6055599
-42.40672912
171.6475984
179.4377406
358.0774516
246.9256243
170.7461688
133.0635063
346.2194412

F
145.98126

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
0.305333158 0.76173616
-2.936385948
0.0055456
-6.354259828
1.669E-07
13.41018453 3.4477E-16
-1.908743537 0.06367415

7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0

1412.391566
1825.237252
1826.911059
1579.663113
1537.782379
2035.915421
1976.406368
1761.863389
2401.145296
2711.432429
2009.005098
2520.60957
3291.932163
2965.864156
3137.416901
2897.521568
3492.080363
3685.12439
4228.273865
3880.648818
3860.145888
4456.463086
4669.774753
4167.041541
5049.124685
5002.844963
5363.930709
5078.593102

-159.0025662
-262.5712521
-297.5700591
-15.42711294
-139.9213787
-404.7684208
-242.2533684
47.51861081
-390.4342961
-430.5454295
348.9759015
-274.9255702
-1117.497163
-387.7841564
-584.6058007
-388.3995677
-321.953663
219.5229097
-100.157165
55.14688232
-126.2846876
512.1746145
358.2498469
434.1829589
-561.6017847
731.015637
421.5832914
602.7802978

Promedio de los cuadrados


177.8098021
12.80471149

Estadstico t
6.115599513
-4.039230264
2.290688948
-0.085618389

F
13.88627945

Probabilidad
3.25078E-07
0.000236231
0.027329176
0.932196909

Valor crtico de F
2.37457E-06

Inferior 95%
Superior 95%
31.53892313 62.6744292
-1.42035E-08 -4.7299E-09
0.000283764 0.00453807
-0.000546375 0.00050196

Promedio de los cuadrados


7.189E+18
4.13945E+16

Estadstico t
14.39610053
14.7788041
0.80109733
-4.039230264

F
173.6705129

Valor crtico de F
5.72102E-23

Probabilidad
2.05635E-17
8.4674E-18
0.427808386
0.000236231

Inferior 95%
3032366576
319458.5023
-17848.88478
-45916343.33

Superior 95%
4022852062
420675.533
41289.7886
-15290696.3

Promedio de los cuadrados


34073365.15
255473.4314

Estadstico t
-6.051062092
0.24658172
2.290688948
14.7788041

F
133.3734195

Valor crtico de F
7.2626E-21

Probabilidad
4.00622E-07
0.806493055
0.027329176
8.4674E-18

Inferior 95%
-8827.426039
-0.064962335
5.661527348
1.9716E-06

Superior 95%
-4407.06193
0.08301653
90.5413287
2.5963E-06

Promedio de los cuadrados


23388737.45
4758299.132

Estadstico t
-1.062444244
-0.085618389
0.80109733
0.24658172

F
4.915356685

Probabilidad
0.29440659
0.932196909
0.427808386
0.806493055

Valor crtico de F
0.005321865

Inferior 95%
Superior 95%
-19862.33035 6174.97227
-203.035787 186.532584
-2.05173E-06 4.7463E-06
-1.209950565 1.54621741

Valor crtico de F
6.59705E-23

Inferior 95%
Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%
-2039.163193 2764.25864 -2039.16319 2764.25864
-86.89135717 -16.0094721 -86.8913572 -16.0094721
-2.58152E-06 -1.3349E-06 -2.5815E-06 -1.3349E-06
1.412589317 1.91440853 1.41258932 1.91440853
-0.113001916 0.00327521 -0.11300192 0.00327521

REMESAS

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%


31.53892313 62.6744292
-1.42035E-08 -4.7299E-09
0.000283764 0.00453807
-0.000546375 0.00050196

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%


3032366576 4022852062
319458.5023 420675.533
-17848.88478 41289.7886
-45916343.33 -15290696.3

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%


-8827.426039 -4407.06193
-0.064962335 0.08301653
5.661527348 90.5413287
1.9716E-06 2.5963E-06

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%


-19862.33035 6174.97227
-203.035787 186.532584
-2.05173E-06 4.7463E-06
-1.209950565 1.54621741

EMESAS

OBSERVADOS
ESTIMADOS

OBSERVADOS
ESTIMADOS

PIB MX

Periodo

MILES

91 DIAS

MILLONES

MILLONES

DE PESOS

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

PIB MX

CETES

FBKF (I)
REMESAS
PIB(-1)
192,837,110
789.996

1995/01

5826003719

49.060

1995/02

5600037018

57.623

168,422,639

1009.023

5826003719

1995/03

5691934606

36.640

166,820,749

1019.322

5600037018

1995/04

5962216993

47.817

189,687,703

854.383

5691934606

1996/01

5891226773

41.767

185,432,161

932.753

5962216993

1996/02

5955682235

5891226773

6073486667

197,745,367
210,697,803

1172.174

1996/03

32.583
29.537

1098.989

5955682235

1996/04

6427559423

1019.762

6073486667

1997/01

241,566,662
220,498,277

6152807218

27.710
22.973

1052.148

6427559423

1997/02

6492761735

21.453

247,478,806

1365.788

6152807218

1997/03

6569860091

20.057

258,623,431

1302.056

6492761735

1997/04

6898432227

284,589,118
269,835,103

6569860091

6665227031

20.600
19.923

1144.854

1998/01

1176.124

6898432227

1998/02

6779735047

19.770

273,742,257

1463.858

6665227031

1998/03

6891651789

29.357

283,560,167

1457.224

6779735047

1998/04

7072200643

35.713

288,013,581

1529.638

6891651789

1999/01

6833076833

28.283

285,559,164

1253.389

7072200643

1999/02

6997209329

21.140

295,524,329

1562.666

6833076833

1999/03

7148246491

6997209329

7410151130

302,973,686
317,057,090

1529.341

1999/04

21.203
18.877

1564.236

7148246491

2000/01

7298852761

16.110

320,950,349

1397.861

7410151130

2000/02

7467037675

15.520

331,376,757

1631.147

7298852761

2000/03

7604284603

15.493

339,393,951

1734.153

7467037675

2000/04

7711444345

7604284603

7310622304

345,811,675
322,640,696

1809.382

2001/01

17.493
17.680

2010.711

7711444345

2001/02

7424984882

12.760

314,087,285

2280.887

7310622304

2001/03

7483060755

9.890

310,390,102

2357.981

7424984882

2001/04

7576346882

8.633

315,008,668

2245.684

7483060755

2002/01

7110694282

7.610

302,159,944

2174.435

7576346882

2002/02

7523677198

6.860

324,733,600

2578.08

7110694282

2002/03

7517032580

7.590

310,071,582

2552.8111

7523677198

2002/04

7670055408

7.777

317,103,966

2509.122

7517032580

2003/01

7367050447

8.890

307,126,688

3170.1267

7670055408

2003/02

7539706233

6.373

313,955,391

3904.6473

7367050447

2003/03

7535289460

5.193

315,985,455

4128.1167

7539706233

2003/04

7781167392

5.597

321,629,474

3935.7957

7535289460

2004/01

7620258155

5.650

320,667,476

3733.8612

7781167392

2004/02

7823421276

6.767

332,238,051

4968.6377

7620258155

2004/03

7871310096

7.517

343,690,009

5028.0246

7823421276

2004/04

8133297810

8.470

356,551,888

4601.2245

7871310096

2005/01

7773298608

9.263

341,655,239

4487.5229

8133297810

2005/02

8117334064

9.893

360,377,458

5733.8606

7773298608

2005/03

8141697897

9.523

367,570,597

5785.514

8117334064

2005/04

8424010420

8.637

386,750,005

5681.3734

8141697897

TASA DE INTERES

PERIODO

91 DIAS

MILLONES

MILLONES

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

Resumen

1995/02

FBKF (I)
REMESAS
PIB(-1)
57.623
168,422,639
1009.023
5826003719

1995/03

36.640

166,820,749

1019.322

5600037018

1995/04

47.817

189,687,703

854.383

5691934606

1996/01

41.767

185,432,161

932.753

5962216993

1996/02

32.583

197,745,367

1172.174

5891226773

1996/03

29.537
27.710

210,697,803
241,566,662

1098.989

5955682235

1019.762

6073486667

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

22.973
21.453

220,498,277
247,478,806

1052.148

6427559423

1997/02

1365.788

6152807218

1997/03

20.057

258,623,431

1302.056

6492761735

1997/04

20.600

284,589,118

1144.854

6569860091

1996/04
1997/01

CETES

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de liberta
Regresin

19.923
19.770

269,835,103
273,742,257

1176.124

6898432227

1998/02

1463.858

6665227031

1998/03

29.357

283,560,167

1457.224

6779735047

1998/04

35.713

288,013,581

1529.638

6891651789

1999/01

28.283

285,559,164

1253.389

7072200643

1999/02

21.140

295,524,329

1562.666

6833076833

1999/03

302,973,686
317,057,090

1529.341

6997209329

1999/04

21.203
18.877

1564.236

7148246491

2000/01

16.110

320,950,349

1397.861

7410151130

2000/02

15.520

331,376,757

1631.147

7298852761

2000/03

15.493

339,393,951

1734.153

7467037675

2000/04

17.493

345,811,675

1809.382

7604284603

2001/01

17.680

322,640,696

2010.711

7711444345

2001/02

12.760

314,087,285

2280.887

7310622304

2001/03

9.890

310,390,102

2357.981

7424984882

2001/04

8.633

315,008,668

2245.684

7483060755

2002/01

7.610

302,159,944

2174.435

7576346882

2002/02

6.860

324,733,600

2578.08

7110694282

2002/03

7.590

310,071,582

2552.8111

7523677198

2002/04

7.777

317,103,966

2509.122

7517032580

2003/01

8.890

307,126,688

3170.1267

7670055408

2003/02

6.373

313,955,391

3904.6473

7367050447

2003/03

5.193

315,985,455

4128.1167

7539706233

2003/04

5.597

321,629,474

3935.7957

7535289460

2004/01

5.650

320,667,476

3733.8612

7781167392

2004/02

6.767

332,238,051

4968.6377

7620258155

2004/03

7.517

343,690,009

5028.0246

7823421276

2004/04

8.470

356,551,888

4601.2245

7871310096

2005/01

9.263

341,655,239

4487.5229

8133297810

2005/02

9.893

360,377,458

5733.8606

7773298608

2005/03

9.523

367,570,597

5785.514

8117334064

2005/04

8.637

386,750,005

5681.3734

8141697897

1998/01

INVERSION

MILLONES

MILLONES

91 DIAS

Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

DE PESOS

PERIODO
1995/02

DE DOLARES

PORCENTUAL

FBKF (I)
REMESAS
PIB(-1)
CETES
168,422,639
1009.023
5826003719

1995/03

166,820,749

1995/04

189,687,703

1996/01

185,432,161

1996/02
1996/03

Resumen
57.623

5600037018

36.640

854.383

5691934606

47.817

932.753

5962216993

41.767

197,745,367

1172.174

5891226773

32.583

210,697,803
241,566,662

1098.989

5955682235

1019.762

6073486667

29.537
27.710

220,498,277
247,478,806

1052.148

6427559423

1997/02

1365.788

6152807218

22.973
21.453

1997/03

258,623,431

1302.056

6492761735

20.057

1997/04

284,589,118

1144.854

6569860091

20.600

1998/01

1176.124

6898432227

1998/02

269,835,103
273,742,257

1463.858

6665227031

19.923
19.770

1998/03

283,560,167

1457.224

6779735047

29.357

1998/04

288,013,581

1529.638

6891651789

35.713

1999/01

285,559,164

1253.389

7072200643

28.283

1999/02

295,524,329

1562.666

6833076833

21.140

1999/03

1529.341

6997209329

1999/04

302,973,686
317,057,090

1564.236

7148246491

21.203
18.877

2000/01

320,950,349

1397.861

7410151130

16.110

2000/02

331,376,757

1631.147

7298852761

15.520

2000/03

339,393,951

1734.153

7467037675

15.493

2000/04

345,811,675

1809.382

7604284603

17.493

2001/01

322,640,696

2010.711

7711444345

17.680

2001/02

314,087,285

2280.887

7310622304

12.760

2001/03

310,390,102

2357.981

7424984882

9.890

2001/04

315,008,668

2245.684

7483060755

8.633

2002/01

302,159,944

2174.435

7576346882

7.610

2002/02

324,733,600

2578.08

7110694282

6.860

2002/03

310,071,582

2552.8111

7523677198

7.590

2002/04

317,103,966

2509.122

7517032580

7.777

2003/01

307,126,688

3170.1267

7670055408

8.890

2003/02

313,955,391

3904.6473

7367050447

6.373

2003/03

315,985,455

4128.1167

7539706233

5.193

2003/04

321,629,474

3935.7957

7535289460

5.597

2004/01

320,667,476

3733.8612

7781167392

5.650

2004/02

332,238,051

4968.6377

7620258155

6.767

2004/03

343,690,009

5028.0246

7823421276

7.517

2004/04

356,551,888

4601.2245

7871310096

8.470

2005/01

341,655,239

4487.5229

8133297810

9.263

2005/02

360,377,458

5733.8606

7773298608

9.893

2005/03

367,570,597

5785.514

8117334064

9.523

2005/04

386,750,005

5681.3734

8141697897

8.637

1996/04
1997/01

1019.322

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de liberta
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

REMESAS

PERIODO

MILLONES

91 DIAS

MILLONES

DE DOLARES

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

CETES

1995/02

REMESAS
1009.023

PIB(-1)
5826003719

57.623

FBKF (I)
168,422,639

1995/03

1019.322

5600037018

36.640

166,820,749

1995/04

854.383

5691934606

47.817

189,687,703

1996/01

932.753

5962216993

1996/02

1172.174

5891226773

41.767
32.583

185,432,161
197,745,367

1996/03

1098.989

5955682235

1996/04

1019.762

6073486667

29.537
27.710

210,697,803
241,566,662

1997/01

1052.148

6427559423

22.973

220,498,277
247,478,806

1997/02

1365.788

6152807218

21.453

1997/03

1302.056

6492761735

1997/04

1144.854

6569860091

20.057
20.600

258,623,431
284,589,118

1998/01

1176.124

6898432227

19.923

269,835,103

1998/02

1463.858

6665227031

19.770

273,742,257

1998/03

1457.224

6779735047

29.357

283,560,167
288,013,581

1998/04

1529.638

6891651789

35.713

1999/01

1253.389

7072200643

1999/02

1562.666

6833076833

28.283
21.140

285,559,164
295,524,329

1999/03

1529.341

6997209329

21.203

302,973,686

1999/04

1564.236

7148246491

18.877

317,057,090

2000/01

1397.861

7410151130

16.110

320,950,349
331,376,757

2000/02

1631.147

7298852761

15.520

2000/03

1734.153

7467037675

15.493

339,393,951

2000/04

1809.382

7604284603

17.493

345,811,675
322,640,696

2001/01

2010.711

7711444345

17.680

2001/02

2280.887

7310622304

12.760

314,087,285

2001/03

2357.981

7424984882

9.890

310,390,102
315,008,668

2001/04

2245.684

7483060755

8.633

2002/01

2174.435

7576346882

7.610

302,159,944
324,733,600

2002/02

2578.08

7110694282

6.860

2002/03

2552.8111

7523677198

7.590

310,071,582

2002/04

2509.122

7517032580

7.777

317,103,966
307,126,688
313,955,391

2003/01

3170.1267

7670055408

8.890

2003/02

3904.6473

7367050447

6.373

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de liberta
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

2003/03

4128.1167

7539706233

5.193

315,985,455

2003/04

3935.7957

7535289460

5.597

321,629,474

2004/01

3733.8612

7781167392

5.650

320,667,476
332,238,051

2004/02

4968.6377

7620258155

6.767

2004/03

5028.0246

7823421276

7.517

343,690,009

2004/04

4601.2245

7871310096

8.470

356,551,888
341,655,239

2005/01

4487.5229

8133297810

9.263

2005/02

5733.8606

7773298608

9.893

360,377,458

2005/03

5785.514

8117334064

9.523

367,570,597

8141697897

8.637

386,750,005

2005/04

5681.3734

PIB
REZAGADO

PERIODO

PIB(-1)

91 DIAS

MILLONES

MILLONES

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

CETES

FBKF (I)

REMESAS

5826003719

57.623

168,422,639

1009.023

5600037018

36.640

166,820,749

1019.322

1995/04

5691934606

47.817

189,687,703

854.383

1996/01

5962216993

41.767

185,432,161

932.753

1996/02

5891226773
5955682235

197,745,367
210,697,803

1172.174

1996/03

32.583
29.537

241,566,662
220,498,277

1019.762

1995/02
1995/03

1996/04

6073486667

1997/01

6427559423

27.710
22.973

1997/02

1098.989
1052.148

6152807218

21.453

247,478,806

1365.788

1997/03

6492761735

20.057

258,623,431

1302.056

1997/04

6569860091
6898432227

284,589,118
269,835,103

1144.854

1998/01

20.600
19.923

1998/02

6665227031

19.770

273,742,257

1463.858

1998/03

6779735047

29.357

283,560,167

1457.224

1998/04

6891651789

35.713

288,013,581

1529.638

1999/01

7072200643

28.283

285,559,164

1253.389

1999/02

6833076833
6997209329

295,524,329
302,973,686

1562.666

1999/03

21.140
21.203

1999/04

7148246491

18.877

317,057,090

1564.236

2000/01

7410151130

16.110

320,950,349

1397.861

2000/02

7298852761

15.520

331,376,757

1631.147

2000/03

7467037675

15.493

339,393,951

1734.153

2000/04

7604284603

17.493

345,811,675

1809.382

2001/01

1176.124

1529.341

7711444345

17.680

322,640,696

2010.711

2001/02

7310622304

12.760

314,087,285

2280.887

2001/03

7424984882

9.890

310,390,102

2357.981

2001/04

7483060755

8.633

315,008,668

2245.684

2002/01

7576346882

7.610

302,159,944

2174.435

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de liberta
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

2002/02

7110694282

6.860

324,733,600

2578.08

2002/03

7523677198

7.590

310,071,582

2552.8111

2002/04

7517032580

7.777

317,103,966

2509.122

2003/01

7670055408

8.890

307,126,688

3170.1267

2003/02

7367050447

6.373

313,955,391

3904.6473

2003/03

7539706233

5.193

315,985,455

4128.1167

2003/04

7535289460

5.597

321,629,474

3935.7957

2004/01

7781167392

5.650

320,667,476

3733.8612

2004/02

7620258155

6.767

332,238,051

4968.6377

2004/03

7823421276

7.517

343,690,009

5028.0246

2004/04

7871310096

8.470

356,551,888

4601.2245

2005/01

8133297810

9.263

341,655,239

4487.5229

2005/02

7773298608

9.893

360,377,458

5733.8606

2005/03

8117334064

9.523

367,570,597

5785.514

8141697897

8.637

386,750,005

5681.3734

2005/04

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.99162939mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.98332885 R^2
R^2 ajustado 0.98157399
Error tpico
97157152
Observaciones
43

1E+10
8E+09
6E+09
4E+09
2E+09

Coeficientes
Intercepcin 3811896710
Variable X 1 -3007008.32
Variable X 2
10.3423107
Variable X 3
84204.3944
Variable X 4
0.02175982

Error tpico
364117355
2324464.13
0.89376195
15679.9454
0.07460794

Anlisis de los residuales


ObservacinPronstico para Y Residuos
1 5592239119
7797899.1
2 5634719158 57215447.1
3 5825719059 136497934
4 5812379717 78847055.3
5 5985956645 -30274410.5
6 6124316156 -50829488.3
7 6444956431 -17397008.2
8 6251735448 -98928229.3
9 6555778421 -63016685.8
10 6677270220 -107410129
11 6932622163 -34189935.5
12 6791849041 -126622009
13 6851873079 -72138032.6
14 6926518831 -34867042.5
15 6961995739 110204904
16 6939620799 -106543966

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%


10.4688685
9.409E-13 3074779668
-1.29363507 0.20359983 -7712639.9
11.5716615 5.0803E-14 8.53298427
5.37019691 4.1563E-06 52462.0047
0.29165561 0.77213623 -0.12927605

1995/02

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
4 2.1158E+19 5.2894E+18 560.346672 3.2467E-33
Residuos
38
3.587E+17 9.4395E+15
Total
42 2.1516E+19

17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

7085002885
7162621388
7321497489
7361771666
7488600825
7583930556
7653611716
7432693507
7373054143
7352427005
7395780276
7262002363
7521577548
7374601969
7442948361
7395401700
7528850433
7575968321
7616837311
7595074143
7811855050
7937460933
8032719409
7872394709
8161244892
8248586758
8441373426

-87793556.1
-14374897.8
88653640.6
-62918905.2
-21563150
20354047
57832628.7
-122071204
51930738.9
130633750
180566605
-151308081
2099650
142430611
227107047
-28351252.6
10855799.2
-40678860.5
164330081
25184011.3
11566226.3
-66150837
100578401
-99096101.2
-43910828.1
-106888861
-17363005.9

ticas de la regresin
0.85240287
0.72659065
0.70555916
6.69298147
43

Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
3 4642.80334 1547.60111 34.5477516 4.5512E-11

39 1747.04404
42 6389.84738
Coeficientes Error tpico
95.7059435 19.8573461
-8.5431E-08 6.0031E-08
-0.0007358 0.00107372
-7.1319E-09 5.0111E-09

R2 GLOBAL:
AUXILIARES:
R:
I:
REME:
PIB(-1):

0.98332885
0.72659065
0.90617232
0.59740029
0.92103595

44.796001

Estadstico t Probabilidad
4.81967444 2.2088E-05
-1.42311419 0.16265378
-0.68528386 0.49721806
-1.42322071
0.1626231

Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%


55.5406702 135.871217 55.5406702
-2.0685E-07 3.5993E-08 -2.0685E-07
-0.0029076
0.001436 -0.0029076
-1.7268E-08
3.004E-09 -1.7268E-08

ticas de la regresin
0.95193084
0.90617232
0.8989548
17406867.1
43

Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
3 1.1413E+17 3.8042E+16
125.55186 4.4242E-20
39 1.1817E+16
3.03E+14
42 1.2594E+17
Coeficientes Error tpico
-165377624 59619273.1
-1501.86281 2798.93724
0.06672076
0.008033
-577849.978 406046.107

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%


-2.77389535 0.00845523 -285968986 -44786263.3 -285968986
-0.53658324 0.59460342 -7163.24769 4159.52208 -7163.24769
8.3058363 3.7166E-10 0.05047249 0.08296903 0.05047249
-1.42311419 0.16265378 -1399155.74 243455.788 -1399155.74

ticas de la regresin
0.77291674
0.59740029
0.56643108
992.197037
43

Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
3 56970815.3 18990271.8 19.2901377 7.8673E-08
39 38393743.4
984454.96
42 95364558.7
Coeficientes Error tpico
-8183.362 3479.93128
1.7395E-06 7.0918E-07
-16.1702735 23.5964605
-4.8796E-06 9.0938E-06

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%


-2.35158724 0.02383929 -15222.1873 -1144.53667 -15222.1873
2.45290473 0.01874632
3.051E-07
3.174E-06
3.051E-07
-0.68528386 0.49721806 -63.8986195 31.5580725 -63.8986195
-0.53658324 0.59460342 -2.3274E-05 1.3514E-05 -2.3274E-05

ticas de la regresin
0.95970618
0.92103595
0.91496179
208524662
43

Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
3
1.978E+19 6.5933E+18 151.631875 1.5438E-21
39 1.6958E+18 4.3483E+16
42 2.1476E+19
Coeficientes
4220327554
-6922816.39
9.57490801
76833.9487

Error tpico
392468841
4864190.32
1.15279277
31323.6579

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%


10.7532806 3.1448E-13 3426484401 5014170707 3426484401
-1.42322071
0.1626231 -16761569.9 2915937.11 -16761569.9
8.3058363 3.7166E-10 7.24316457 11.9066515 7.24316457
2.45290473 0.01874632 13475.8709 140192.027 13475.8709

PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO DE


MXICO
1E+10
8E+09
6E+09
4E+09

OBSERVADOS

2E+09

ESTIMADOS

Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%


4549013752 3074779668 4549013752
1698623.27 -7712639.9 1698623.27
12.1516372 8.53298427 12.1516372
115946.784 52462.0047 115946.784
0.1727957 -0.12927605
0.1727957

2005/04

2005/01

2004/02

2003/03

2002/04

2002/01

2001/02

2000/03

1999/04

1999/01

1998/02

1997/03

1996/04

1996/01

or crtico de F

1995/02

Superior 95.0%
135.871217
3.5993E-08
0.001436
3.004E-09

Superior 95.0%
-44786263.3
4159.52208
0.08296903
243455.788

Superior 95.0%
-1144.53667
3.174E-06
31.5580725
1.3514E-05

Superior 95.0%
5014170707
2915937.11
11.9066515
140192.027

REGRESION INVERSION

Periodo
1995/01

MILLONES

91 DIAS

MILES

MILLONES

MILLONES

DE PESOS

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

DE DOLARES

PIB MX

REMESAS

FBKF (I)
CETES
192,837,110

IED

49.060

5826003719

789.996

1982.817

1995/02

168,422,639

57.623

5600037018

1009.023

2913.607

1995/03

166,820,749

36.640

5691934606

1019.322

2254.719

1995/04

189,687,703

47.817

5962216993

854.383

2375.157

1996/01

185,432,161

41.767

5891226773

932.753

2027.668

1996/02

197,745,367
210,697,803

32.583
29.537

5955682235

1172.174

1779.942

6073486667

1098.989

2004.378

27.710
22.973

6427559423

1019.762

3373.463

1997/01

241,566,662
220,498,277

6152807218

1052.148

2109.241

1997/02

247,478,806

21.453

6492761735

1365.788

2594.518

1997/03

258,623,431

20.057

6569860091

1302.056

5594.98

1997/04

284,589,118
269,835,103

20.600
19.923

6898432227

1144.854

2530.817

1998/01

6665227031

1176.124

2620.8186

1998/02

273,742,257

19.770

6779735047

1463.858

3477.683

1998/03

283,560,167

29.357

6891651789

1457.224

3295.1097

1998/04

288,013,581

35.713

7072200643

1529.638

3313.5336

1999/01

285,559,164

28.283

6833076833

1253.389

3525.6642

1999/02

295,524,329

21.140

6997209329

1562.666

3395.7421

1999/03

21.203
18.877

7148246491

1529.341

3018.3991

1999/04

302,973,686
317,057,090

7410151130

1564.236

3929.7862

2000/01

320,950,349

16.110

7298852761

1397.861

4520.7958

2000/02

331,376,757

15.520

7467037675

1631.147

4764.975

2000/03

339,393,951

15.493

7604284603

1734.153

3031.3497

2000/04

17.493
17.680

7711444345

1809.382

5781.0621

2001/01

345,811,675
322,640,696

7310622304

2010.711

3538.7528

2001/02

314,087,285

12.760

7424984882

2280.887

5138.3226

2001/03

310,390,102

9.890

7483060755

2357.981

16268.283

2001/04

315,008,668

8.633

7576346882

2245.684

4828.8116

2002/01

302,159,944

7.610

7110694282

2174.435

5008.7086

2002/02

324,733,600

6.860

7523677198

2578.08

6067.5055

2002/03

310,071,582

7.590

7517032580

2552.8111

6087.7807

2002/04

317,103,966

7.777

7670055408

2509.122

6472.2487

2003/01

307,126,688

8.890

7367050447

3170.1267

3904.4675

2003/02

313,955,391

6.373

7539706233

3904.6473

5426.8043

2003/03

315,985,455

5.193

7535289460

4128.1167

2929.2677

2003/04

321,629,474

5.597

7781167392

3935.7957

4318.073

2004/01

320,667,476

5.650

7620258155

3733.8612

9122.7049

2004/02

332,238,051

6.767

7823421276

4968.6377

4052.2383

2004/03

343,690,009

7.517

7871310096

5028.0246

3096.272

2004/04

356,551,888

8.470

8133297810

4601.2245

7539.2968

2005/01

341,655,239

9.263

7773298608

4487.5229

6287.8145

2005/02

360,377,458

9.893

8117334064

5733.8606

5854.4909

1996/03
1996/04

Estadsticas de

2005/03

367,570,597

9.523

8141697897

5785.514

5295.1793

2005/04

386,750,005

8.637

8424010420

5681.3734

4913.9955

AUXILIARES
TASA DE INTERES

Periodo

91 DIAS

MILES

MILLONES

MILLONES

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

DE DOLARES

CETES

PIB MX

REMESAS

IED

1995/01

49.060

5826003719

789.996

1982.817

1995/02

57.623

5600037018

1009.023

2913.607

1995/03

36.640

5691934606

1019.322

2254.719

1995/04

47.817

5962216993

854.383

2375.157

1996/01

41.767

5891226773

932.753

2027.668

1996/02

5955682235

1172.174

1779.942

1996/03

32.583
29.537

6073486667

1098.989

2004.378

1996/04

27.710

6427559423

1019.762

3373.463

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

1997/01

22.973

6152807218

1052.148

2109.241

1997/02

21.453

6492761735

1365.788

2594.518

1997/03

20.057

6569860091

1302.056

5594.98

1997/04

6898432227

1144.854

2530.817

1998/01

20.600
19.923

6665227031

1176.124

2620.8186

1998/02

19.770

6779735047

1463.858

3477.683

1998/03

29.357

6891651789

1457.224

3295.1097

1998/04

35.713

7072200643

1529.638

3313.5336

1999/01

28.283

6833076833

1253.389

3525.6642

1999/02

6997209329

1562.666

3395.7421

1999/03

21.140
21.203

7148246491

1529.341

3018.3991

1999/04

18.877

7410151130

1564.236

3929.7862

2000/01

16.110

7298852761

1397.861

4520.7958

2000/02

15.520

7467037675

1631.147

4764.975

2000/03

15.493

7604284603

1734.153

3031.3497

2000/04

17.493

7711444345

1809.382

5781.0621

2001/01

17.680

7310622304

2010.711

3538.7528

2001/02

12.760

7424984882

2280.887

5138.3226

2001/03

9.890

7483060755

2357.981

16268.283

2001/04

8.633

7576346882

2245.684

4828.8116

2002/01

7.610

7110694282

2174.435

5008.7086

2002/02

6.860

7523677198

2578.08

6067.5055

2002/03

7.590

7517032580

2552.8111

6087.7807

2002/04

7.777

7670055408

2509.122

6472.2487

2003/01

8.890

7367050447

3170.1267

3904.4675

2003/02

6.373

7539706233

3904.6473

5426.8043

2003/03

5.193

7535289460

4128.1167

2929.2677

2003/04

5.597

7781167392

3935.7957

4318.073

2004/01

5.650

7620258155

3733.8612

9122.7049

2004/02

6.767

7823421276

4968.6377

4052.2383

2004/03

7.517

7871310096

5028.0246

3096.272

2004/04

8.470

8133297810

4601.2245

7539.2968

2005/01

9.263

7773298608

4487.5229

6287.8145

2005/02

9.893

8117334064

5733.8606

5854.4909

2005/03

9.523

8141697897

5785.514

5295.1793

2005/04

8.637

8424010420

5681.3734

4913.9955

MILES

MILLONES

MILLONES

91 DIAS

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

DE DOLARES

PORCENTUAL

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

Resumen

Periodo

PIB MX

REMESAS

IED

CETES

1995/01

5826003719

789.996

1982.817

49.060

1995/02

5600037018

1009.023

2913.607

57.623

1995/03

5691934606

1019.322

2254.719

36.640

1995/04

5962216993

854.383

2375.157

47.817

1996/01

5891226773

932.753

2027.668

1996/02

5955682235

1172.174

1779.942

41.767
32.583

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

1996/03

6073486667

1098.989

2004.378

1996/04

6427559423

1019.762

3373.463

29.537
27.710

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA

1997/01

6152807218

1052.148

2109.241

22.973

1997/02

6492761735

1365.788

2594.518

21.453

1997/03

6569860091

1302.056

5594.98

1997/04

6898432227

1144.854

2530.817

20.057
20.600

1998/01

6665227031

1176.124

2620.8186

19.923

1998/02

6779735047

1463.858

3477.683

19.770

1998/03

6891651789

1457.224

3295.1097

29.357

1998/04

7072200643

1529.638

3313.5336

35.713

1999/01

6833076833

1253.389

3525.6642

1999/02

6997209329

1562.666

3395.7421

28.283
21.140

1999/03

7148246491

1529.341

3018.3991

21.203

1999/04

7410151130

1564.236

3929.7862

18.877

2000/01

7298852761

1397.861

4520.7958

16.110

2000/02

7467037675

1631.147

4764.975

15.520

2000/03

7604284603

1734.153

3031.3497

15.493

2000/04

7711444345

1809.382

5781.0621

17.493

2001/01

7310622304

2010.711

3538.7528

17.680

2001/02

7424984882

2280.887

5138.3226

12.760

2001/03

7483060755

2357.981

16268.283

9.890

2001/04

7576346882

2245.684

4828.8116

8.633

2002/01

7110694282

2174.435

5008.7086

7.610

2002/02

7523677198

2578.08

6067.5055

6.860

2002/03

7517032580

2552.8111

6087.7807

7.590

2002/04

7670055408

2509.122

6472.2487

7.777

2003/01

7367050447

3170.1267

3904.4675

8.890

2003/02

7539706233

3904.6473

5426.8043

6.373

2003/03

7535289460

4128.1167

2929.2677

5.193

2003/04

7781167392

3935.7957

4318.073

5.597

2004/01

7620258155

3733.8612

9122.7049

5.650

2004/02

7823421276

4968.6377

4052.2383

6.767

2004/03

7871310096

5028.0246

3096.272

7.517

2004/04

8133297810

4601.2245

7539.2968

8.470

2005/01

7773298608

4487.5229

6287.8145

9.263

2005/02

8117334064

5733.8606

5854.4909

9.893

2005/03

8141697897

5785.514

5295.1793

9.523

2005/04

8424010420

5681.3734

4913.9955

8.637

Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

Periodo

MILLONES

MILLONES

91 DIAS

MILES

DE DOLARES

DE DOLARES

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

CETES

PIB MX

REMESAS

IED

1995/01

789.996

1982.817

49.060

5826003719

1995/02

1009.023

2913.607

57.623

5600037018

1995/03

1019.322

2254.719

36.640

5691934606

1995/04

854.383

2375.157

47.817

5962216993

41.767
32.583

5891226773
6073486667

1996/01

932.753

2027.668

1996/02

1172.174

1779.942

1996/03

1098.989

2004.378

1996/04

1019.762

3373.463

29.537
27.710

6152807218

5955682235
6427559423

1997/01

1052.148

2109.241

22.973

1997/02

1365.788

2594.518

21.453

6492761735

1997/03

1302.056

5594.98

1144.854

2530.817

20.057
20.600

6569860091

1997/04
1998/01

1176.124

2620.8186

19.923

6665227031

1998/02

1463.858

3477.683

19.770

6779735047
6891651789

6898432227

1998/03

1457.224

3295.1097

29.357

1998/04

1529.638

3313.5336

35.713

7072200643

1999/01

1253.389

3525.6642

6833076833

1999/02

1562.666

3395.7421

28.283
21.140

1999/03

1529.341

3018.3991

21.203

7148246491

1999/04

1564.236

3929.7862

18.877

7410151130
7298852761

6997209329

2000/01

1397.861

4520.7958

16.110

2000/02

1631.147

4764.975

15.520

7467037675

2000/03

1734.153

3031.3497

15.493

7604284603
7711444345

2000/04

1809.382

5781.0621

17.493

2001/01

2010.711

3538.7528

17.680

7310622304

2001/02

2280.887

5138.3226

12.760

7424984882
7483060755

2001/03

2357.981

16268.283

9.890

2001/04

2245.684

4828.8116

8.633

7576346882
7110694282

2002/01

2174.435

5008.7086

7.610

2002/02

2578.08

6067.5055

6.860

7523677198

2002/03

2552.8111

6087.7807

7.590

7517032580
7670055408
7367050447

2002/04

2509.122

6472.2487

7.777

2003/01

3170.1267

3904.4675

8.890

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

2003/02

3904.6473

5426.8043

6.373

7539706233

2003/03

4128.1167

2929.2677

5.193

7535289460

2003/04

3935.7957

4318.073

5.597

7781167392
7620258155

2004/01

3733.8612

9122.7049

5.650

2004/02

4968.6377

4052.2383

6.767

7823421276

2004/03

5028.0246

3096.272

7.517

7871310096
8133297810

2004/04

4601.2245

7539.2968

8.470

2005/01

4487.5229

6287.8145

9.263

7773298608

2005/02

5733.8606

5854.4909

9.893

8117334064
8141697897
8424010420

2005/03

5785.514

5295.1793

9.523

2005/04

5681.3734

4913.9955

8.637

MILLONES

91 DIAS

MILES

MILLONES

DE DOLARES

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

CETES

PIB MX

REMESAS

Periodo

IED

1995/01

1982.817

49.060

5826003719

789.996

1995/02

2913.607

57.623

5600037018

1009.023

1995/03

2254.719

36.640

5691934606

1019.322

1995/04

2375.157

47.817

5962216993

854.383

1996/01

2027.668

5891226773

932.753

1996/02

1779.942

41.767
32.583

5955682235

1172.174

1996/03

2004.378

1098.989

3373.463

29.537
27.710

6073486667

1996/04

6427559423

1019.762

1997/01

2109.241

22.973

6152807218

1052.148

1997/02

2594.518

21.453

6492761735

1365.788

1997/03

5594.98

6569860091

1302.056

1997/04

2530.817

20.057
20.600

6898432227

1144.854

2620.8186

19.923

6665227031

1176.124

1998/02

3477.683

19.770

6779735047

1463.858

1998/03

3295.1097

29.357

6891651789

1457.224

1998/04

3313.5336

35.713

7072200643

1529.638

1999/01

3525.6642

6833076833

1253.389

1999/02

3395.7421

28.283
21.140

6997209329

1562.666

1999/03

3018.3991

21.203

7148246491

1529.341

1999/04

3929.7862

18.877

7410151130

1564.236

2000/01

4520.7958

16.110

7298852761

1397.861

2000/02

4764.975

15.520

7467037675

1631.147

2000/03

3031.3497

15.493

7604284603

1734.153

2000/04

5781.0621

17.493

7711444345

1809.382

1998/01

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3

2001/01

3538.7528

17.680

7310622304

2010.711

2001/02

5138.3226

12.760

7424984882

2280.887

2001/03

16268.283

9.890

7483060755

2357.981

2001/04

4828.8116

8.633

7576346882

2245.684

2002/01

5008.7086

7.610

7110694282

2174.435

2002/02

6067.5055

6.860

7523677198

2578.08

2002/03

6087.7807

7.590

7517032580

2552.8111

2002/04

6472.2487

7.777

7670055408

2509.122

2003/01

3904.4675

8.890

7367050447

3170.1267

2003/02

5426.8043

6.373

7539706233

3904.6473

2003/03

2929.2677

5.193

7535289460

4128.1167

2003/04

4318.073

5.597

7781167392

3935.7957

2004/01

9122.7049

5.650

7620258155

3733.8612

2004/02

4052.2383

6.767

7823421276

4968.6377

2004/03

3096.272

7.517

7871310096

5028.0246

2004/04

7539.2968

8.470

8133297810

4601.2245

2005/01

6287.8145

9.263

7773298608

4487.5229

2005/02

5854.4909

9.893

8117334064

5733.8606

2005/03

5295.1793

9.523

8141697897

5785.514

2005/04

4913.9955

8.637

8424010420

5681.3734

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple 0.99022767
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 0.98055083
R^2 ajustado
0.97855605
Error tpico
8229302.64
Observaciones
44
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
4 1.3316E+17 3.3289E+16 491.556844 8.6539E-33
39 2.6411E+15 6.7721E+13
43
1.358E+17

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
Variable X 4

Coeficientes Error tpico


-313390238 30516767.2
-31220.6281 192626.097
0.08803688 0.00419657
-6737.59934 1393.36513
-1281.49826 604.983134

Anlisis de los residuales


Observacin

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%


-10.2694442 1.1987E-12 -375116226
-0.16207891 0.87208054 -420843.681
20.9782906 7.5645E-23 0.07954851
-4.83548727 2.1019E-05 -9555.9463
-2.11823799 0.04058037 -2505.19214

450,000,000

Pronstico para Y Residuos


1 190117603 2719506.54
2 167288326
1134313
3 176808789 -9988039.82
4 201211616 -11523912.6
5 195068024 -9635862.97
6 199733529 -1988161.72
7 210405259 292544.079
8 240413068 1153593.64
9 217774518 2723758.88
10 245015446 2463360.45
11 248430863 10192568.2
12 282326248 2262869.72
13 261490695 8344407.78
14 268539704 5202553.08
15 278371867 5188299.67
16 293556859 -5543277.95

400,000,000
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
1995/01
1995/04
1996/03
1997/02

Regresin
Residuos
Total

17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

274326525
287081967
301084925
322811782
313463388
326403581
340014829
345355782
311579874
317931421
308351389
332019517
291306375
323611072
323147579
336415068
308541720
316920591
318263534
339413297
320449112
336478460
341495971
361712668
332364541
354790659
357315864
383387603

11232639.4
8442362.1
1888761.29
-5754691.97
7486960.59
4973176.4
-620877.799
455892.81
11060821.5
-3844135.8
2038712.81
-17010849.4
10853569.2
1122527.74
-13075996.9
-19311101.7
-1415032.2
-2965199.97
-2278078.99
-17783823.4
218364.239
-4240409.46
2194037.78
-5160779.51
9290697.51
5586798.63
10254733.3
3362401.83

R2 GLOBAL
AUXILIARES:
R:
PIB
REMESAS
IED

Estadsticas de la regresin
0.866264734
0.750414589
0.731695683
6.754884292
44

0.98055083
0.75041459
0.83441429
0.64389413
0.2897114

NLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
3 5487.54245 1829.18082 40.0885926 3.9483E-12
40 1825.13847 45.6284618
43 7312.68092

Coeficientes
124.9245223
-1.46176E-08
5.42285E-05
-0.000454156

Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%


15.4047945 8.10945722 5.6206E-10 93.7902715 156.058773
2.5542E-09 -5.72291945 1.1587E-06 -1.978E-08 -9.4553E-09
0.00114369 0.04741545 0.96241807 -0.00225725 0.00236571
0.00049137 -0.92426248 0.36089209 -0.00144725 0.00053894

Estadsticas de la regresin
0.913462804
0.834414294
0.821995366
310054831.7
44

NLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
3 1.9377E+19 6.4591E+18 67.1889149 1.1328E-15
40 3.8454E+18 9.6134E+16
43 2.3223E+19

Coeficientes
7125179590
190519.2552
28533.36187
-30797561.42

Error tpico
229749509
42995.0053
22342.9697
5381442.41

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%


31.0128175 1.3559E-29 6660838517 7589520663
4.43119506 7.1035E-05 103623.109 277415.401
1.2770622 0.20894389 -16623.4638 73690.1875
-5.72291945 1.1587E-06 -41673862.1 -19921260.7

Estadsticas de la regresin
0.80243014
0.64389413
0.617186189
933.8306017
44

NLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
3 63071262.9 21023754.3 24.1087153 4.4935E-09
40 34881583.7 872039.593
43 97952846.6

Coeficientes
-9767.49261
-0.039388135
1.036401137
1.72822E-06

Error tpico Estadstico t


3099.48055 -3.15133212
0.06836817 -0.57611806
21.8578775 0.04741545
3.9001E-07 4.43119506

Probabilidad
0.00307523
0.56776307
0.96241807
7.1035E-05

Inferior 95% Superior 95%


-16031.7764 -3503.20881
-0.17756535 0.09878908
-43.1400167
45.212819
9.3997E-07 2.5165E-06

Estadsticas de la regresin
0.538248456
0.2897114
0.236439755
2150.749206
44

NLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
3 75469291.7 25156430.6 5.43837908 0.00311986
40 185028886 4625722.15
43 260498178

Coeficientes
Error tpico
-4026.389983 7950.18588
-46.0413977 49.8142019
1.37295E-06 1.0751E-06
-0.208933825
0.362658

Estadstico t
-0.50645231
-0.92426248
1.2770622
-0.57611806

Probabilidad
0.61531949
0.36089209
0.20894389
0.56776307

Inferior 95%
-20094.3148
-146.719654
-7.9988E-07
-0.94189298

Superior 95%
12041.5349
54.6368589
3.5458E-06
0.52402533

or crtico de F

Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%


-251664251 -375116226 -251664251
358402.425 -420843.681 358402.425
0.09652524 0.07954851 0.09652524
-3919.25237 -9555.9463 -3919.25237
-57.8043746 -2505.19214 -57.8043746

OBSERVADOS

1996/03
1997/02
1998/01
1998/04
1999/03
2000/02
2001/01
2001/04
2002/03
2003/02
2004/01
2004/04
2005/03

ESTIMADOS

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%


93.7902715 156.058773
-1.978E-08 -9.4553E-09
-0.00225725 0.00236571
-0.00144725 0.00053894

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%


6660838517 7589520663
103623.109 277415.401
-16623.4638 73690.1875
-41673862.1 -19921260.7

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%


-16031.7764 -3503.20881
-0.17756535 0.09878908
-43.1400167
45.212819
9.3997E-07 2.5165E-06

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%


-20094.3148 12041.5349
-146.719654 54.6368589
-7.9988E-07 3.5458E-06
-0.94189298 0.52402533

MILLONES

UNIDAD %

DE DOLARES

Periodo

REMESAS

inflacion

MILES

MILES DE MILLONESMILLONES

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

PIB MX

PIB USA

DE DOLARES

IED

1995/01

789.996

15.349814

5826003719

7,307.7

1982.817

1995/02

1009.023

15.95499468

5600037018

7,355.8

2913.607

1995/03

1019.322

5.725901285

5691934606

7,452.5

2254.719

1995/04

854.383

5.162660412

5962216993

7,542.5

2375.157

1996/01

932.753

14.80059151

5891226773

7,638.2

2027.668

1996/02

1172.174

5.086911584

5955682235

7,800.0

1779.942

1996/03

1098.989

2.891631764

6073486667

7,892.7

2004.378

1996/04

1019.762

3.230151051

6427559423

8,023.0

3373.463

1997/01

1052.148

12.43545244

6152807218

8,137.0

2109.241

1997/02

1365.788

1.563871019

6492761735

8,276.8

2594.518

1997/03

1302.056

1.123550958

6569860091

8,409.9

5594.98

1997/04

1144.854

1.510507696

6898432227

8,505.7

2530.817

1998/01

1176.124

10.59043636

6665227031

8,600.6

2620.8186

1998/02

1463.858

1.414042674

6779735047

8,698.6

3477.683

1998/03

1457.224

1.550286809

6891651789

8,847.2

3295.1097

1998/04

1529.638

3.223963453

7072200643

9,027.5

3313.5336

1999/01

1253.389

11.56379789

6833076833

9,148.6

3525.6642

1999/02

1562.666

0.793891448

6997209329

9,252.6

3395.7421

1999/03

1529.341

0.345943495

7148246491

9,405.1

3018.3991

1999/04

1564.236

0.762120911

7410151130

9,607.7

3929.7862

2000/01

1397.861

8.473298991

7298852761

9,709.5

4520.7958

2000/02

1631.147

-0.123189665

7467037675

9,949.1

4764.975

2000/03

1734.153

-0.130000842

7604284603

10,017.5

3031.3497

2000/04

1809.382

0.660207015

7711444345

10,129.8

5781.0621

2001/01

2010.711

7.022550425

7310622304

10,165.1

3538.7528

2001/02

2280.887

-0.662903584

7424984882

10,301.3

5138.3226

2001/03

2357.981

-0.962910178

7483060755

10,305.2

16268.283

2001/04

2245.684

-0.063343584

7576346882

10,373.1

4828.8116

2002/01

2174.435

6.536769379

7110694282

10,498.7

5008.7086

2002/02

2578.08

-0.63608493

7523677198

10,601.9

6067.5055

2002/03

2552.8111

-0.512402832

7517032580

10,701.7

6087.7807

2002/04

2509.122

0.024322903

7670055408

10,766.9

6472.2487

2003/01

3170.1267

6.634777958

7367050447

10,887.4

3904.4675

2003/02

3904.6473

-1.296168524

7539706233

11,011.6

5426.8043

2003/03

4128.1167

-1.148752452

7535289460

11,255.1

2929.2677

2003/04

3935.7957

-0.067788481

7781167392

11,414.8

4318.073

2004/01

3733.8612

6.992872665

7620258155

11,589.9

9122.7049

2004/02

4968.6377

-1.3293287

7823421276

11,762.9

4052.2383

2004/03

5028.0246

-0.672167033

7871310096

11,936.3

3096.272

2004/04

4601.2245

0.455620164

8133297810

12,123.9

7539.2968

2005/01

4487.5229

6.039053452

7773298608

12,361.8

6287.8145

2005/02

5733.8606

-1.224975725

8117334064

12,500.0

5854.4909

2005/03

5785.514

-1.182860465

8141697897

12,728.6

5295.1793

2005/04

5681.3734

-0.388266472

8424010420

12,901.4

4913.9955

inf
inf
pib mx
pib usa
IED

FIV=1/(1-

pib mx

pib usa

1
-0.66775655
1
-0.55117667 0.74713041
1
-0.34602834 0.51792206 0.50056742

0.5996079
0.64467189
3.95460757
0.74292641
2.07435336
2.00227225

IED

como el FIV (FACTOR DE INFLACION DE VARIANZA ES MENOR A 10

Hay una correlacin negativa entre el PIB de Mxico y la inflacion


Hay una correlacin negativa entre el PIB de Estados Unidos y la inflacion
Hay una correlacin positiva entre el PIB de Estados Unidos y el PIB de Mxico
Hay una correlacin negativa entre la inversin extranjera directa y la inflacion
Hay una correlacin positiva entre la inversin extranjera directa y el PIB de Mxico
Hay una correlacin positiva entre la inversin extranjera directa y el PIB de Estados Unidos

CION DE VARIANZA ES MENOR A 10 PODEMOS CONCLUIR QUE NO EXISTE MULTICOLINEALIDAD

Periodo

MILES

91 DIAS

MILLONES

MILLONES

DE PESOS

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

PIB MX

CETES

1995/01

5826003719

1995/02

5600037018

1995/03

5691934606

1995/04

5962216993

FBKF (I)
REMESAS
PIB(-1)
49.060
192,837,110
789.996
57.623
168,422,639
1009.023
5826003719
36.640
166,820,749
1019.322
5600037018
47.817
189,687,703
854.383
5691934606

1996/01

5891226773

41.767

185,432,161

932.753

5962216993

1996/02

5955682235

32.583

197,745,367

1172.174

5891226773

1996/03

6073486667

29.537

210,697,803

1098.989

5955682235

1996/04

6427559423

27.710

241,566,662

1019.762

6073486667

1997/01

6152807218

22.973

220,498,277

1052.148

6427559423

1997/02

6492761735

21.453

247,478,806

1365.788

6152807218

1997/03

6569860091

20.057

258,623,431

1302.056

6492761735

1997/04

6898432227

20.600

284,589,118

1144.854

6569860091

1998/01

6665227031

19.923

269,835,103

1176.124

6898432227

1998/02

6779735047

19.770

273,742,257

1463.858

6665227031

1998/03

6891651789

29.357

283,560,167

1457.224

6779735047

1998/04

7072200643

35.713

288,013,581

1529.638

6891651789

1999/01

6833076833

28.283

285,559,164

1253.389

7072200643

1999/02

6997209329

21.140

295,524,329

1562.666

6833076833

1999/03

7148246491

21.203

302,973,686

1529.341

6997209329

1999/04

7410151130

18.877

317,057,090

1564.236

7148246491

2000/01

7298852761

16.110

320,950,349

1397.861

7410151130

2000/02

7467037675

15.520

331,376,757

1631.147

7298852761

2000/03

7604284603

15.493

339,393,951

1734.153

7467037675

2000/04

7711444345

17.493

345,811,675

1809.382

7604284603

2001/01

7310622304

17.680

322,640,696

2010.711

7711444345

2001/02

7424984882

12.760

314,087,285

2280.887

7310622304

2001/03

7483060755

9.890

310,390,102

2357.981

7424984882

2001/04

7576346882

8.633

315,008,668

2245.684

7483060755

2002/01

7110694282

7.610

302,159,944

2174.435

7576346882

2002/02

7523677198

6.860

324,733,600

2578.08

7110694282

2002/03

7517032580

7.590

310,071,582

2552.8111

7523677198

2002/04

7670055408

7.777

317,103,966

2509.122

7517032580

2003/01

7367050447

8.890

307,126,688

3170.1267

7670055408

2003/02

7539706233

6.373

313,955,391

3904.6473

7367050447

2003/03

7535289460

5.193

315,985,455

4128.1167

7539706233

2003/04

7781167392

5.597

321,629,474

3935.7957

7535289460

2004/01

7620258155

5.650

320,667,476

3733.8612

7781167392

2004/02

7823421276

6.767

332,238,051

4968.6377

7620258155

2004/03

7871310096

7.517

343,690,009

5028.0246

7823421276

2004/04

8133297810

8.470

356,551,888

4601.2245

7871310096

2005/01

7773298608

9.263

341,655,239

4487.5229

8133297810

2005/02

8117334064

9.893

360,377,458

5733.8606

7773298608

8141697897

9.523

367,570,597

5785.514

8117334064

2005/03

2005/04

8424010420

8.637

386,750,005

5681.3734

8141697897

R
R
I
REME
PIBmx(-1)

FIV=1/(1-..)

REME

1
-0.73615799
1
-0.67961611
0.7168765
1
-0.64255523 0.74915886 0.76870808

PIBmx(-1)

0.57598445
0.59537414
3.53202753
0.60880754 PODEMOS CONCLUIR QUE COMO EL FIV ES MENOR A 10 NO EXISTE PRESENCIA DE
3.98658681
4.32354057

Hay una correlacin negativa entre la inversin y la tasa de inters


Hay una correlacin negativa entre las remesas y la tasa de inters
Hay una correlacin positiva entre las remesas y la inversin
Hay una correlacin negativa entre el PIB de Mxico rezagado y la tasa de inters
Hay una correlacin positiva entre el PIB de Mxico rezagado y la inversin
Hay una correlacin positiva entre el PIB de Mxico rezagado y las remesas

MENOR A 10 NO EXISTE PRESENCIA DE MULTICOLINEALIDAD

Periodo

MILLONES

91 DIAS

MILES

MILLONES

MILLONES

DE PESOS

PORCENTUAL

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

DE DOLARES

PIB MX

REMESAS

FBKF (I)
CETES
192,837,110

IED

49.060

5826003719

789.996

1982.817

57.623
36.640

5600037018

1009.023

2913.607

1995/03

168,422,639
166,820,749

5691934606

1019.322

2254.719

1995/04

189,687,703

47.817

5962216993

854.383

2375.157

1996/01

185,432,161

41.767

5891226773

932.753

2027.668

1996/02

197,745,367

32.583

5955682235

1172.174

1779.942

1996/03

210,697,803

29.537

6073486667

1098.989

2004.378

1996/04

241,566,662

27.710

6427559423

1019.762

3373.463

1997/01

220,498,277

22.973

6152807218

1052.148

2109.241

1997/02

247,478,806

21.453

6492761735

1365.788

2594.518

1997/03

258,623,431

20.057

6569860091

1302.056

5594.98

1997/04

284,589,118

20.600

6898432227

1144.854

2530.817

1998/01

269,835,103

19.923

6665227031

1176.124

2620.8186

1998/02

273,742,257

19.770

6779735047

1463.858

3477.683

1998/03

283,560,167

29.357

6891651789

1457.224

3295.1097

1998/04

288,013,581

35.713

7072200643

1529.638

3313.5336

1999/01

285,559,164

28.283

6833076833

1253.389

3525.6642

1999/02

295,524,329

21.140

6997209329

1562.666

3395.7421

1999/03

302,973,686

21.203

7148246491

1529.341

3018.3991

1999/04

317,057,090

18.877

7410151130

1564.236

3929.7862

2000/01

320,950,349

16.110

7298852761

1397.861

4520.7958

2000/02

331,376,757

15.520

7467037675

1631.147

4764.975

2000/03

339,393,951

15.493

7604284603

1734.153

3031.3497

2000/04

345,811,675

17.493

7711444345

1809.382

5781.0621

2001/01

322,640,696

17.680

7310622304

2010.711

3538.7528

2001/02

314,087,285

12.760

7424984882

2280.887

5138.3226

2001/03

310,390,102

9.890

7483060755

2357.981

16268.283

2001/04

315,008,668

8.633

7576346882

2245.684

4828.8116

2002/01

302,159,944

7.610

7110694282

2174.435

5008.7086

2002/02

324,733,600

6.860

7523677198

2578.08

6067.5055

2002/03

310,071,582

7.590

7517032580

2552.8111

6087.7807

2002/04

317,103,966

7.777

7670055408

2509.122

6472.2487

2003/01

307,126,688

8.890

7367050447

3170.1267

3904.4675

2003/02

313,955,391

6.373

7539706233

3904.6473

5426.8043

2003/03

315,985,455

5.193

7535289460

4128.1167

2929.2677

2003/04

321,629,474

5.597

7781167392

3935.7957

4318.073

2004/01

320,667,476

5.650

7620258155

3733.8612

9122.7049

2004/02

332,238,051

6.767

7823421276

4968.6377

4052.2383

2004/03

343,690,009

7.517

7871310096

5028.0246

3096.272

2004/04

356,551,888

8.470

8133297810

4601.2245

7539.2968

2005/01

341,655,239

9.263

7773298608

4487.5229

6287.8145

2005/02

360,377,458

9.893

8117334064

5733.8606

5854.4909

2005/03

367,570,597

9.523

8141697897

5785.514

5295.1793

1995/01
1995/02

2005/04

386,750,005

8.637

8424010420

5681.3734

4913.9955

R
PIBmx
REME
IED

PIBmx
REME
1
-0.76311801
1
-0.68458426 0.70048862
1
-0.51005066 0.51792206 0.36702331

FIV= 0.56717701
0.59361827
3.33877126
0.66222944
2.07435336
1.57983701

IED

Hay una correlacin negativa entre el P


Hay una correlacin negativa entre las
Hay una correlacin positiva entre las r
Hay una correlacin negativa entre la I
Hay una correlacin positiva entre la IE
Hay una correlacin positiva entre la IE

como el FIV (FACTOR DE INFLACION DE VARIANZA ES MENOR A 10 PODEMOS CO

TAMBIEN USAR EL R2 DE TODAS LAS DEMAS

ay una correlacin negativa entre el PIB de Mxico y la tasa de inters


ay una correlacin negativa entre las remesas y la tasa de inters
ay una correlacin positiva entre las remesas y el PIB de Mxico
ay una correlacin negativa entre la IED y la tasa de inters
ay una correlacin positiva entre la IED y el PIB de Mxico
ay una correlacin positiva entre la IED y las remesas

ANZA ES MENOR A 10 PODEMOS CONCLUIR QUE NO EXISTE MULTICOLINEALIDAD

MILLONES

UNIDAD %

DE DOLARES

Periodo

REMESAS

inflacion

MILES

MILES DE MILLONESMILLONES

DE PESOS

DE DOLARES

PIB MX

PIB USA

DE DOLARES

IED

1995/01

789.996

15.349814

5826003719

7,307.7

1982.817

1995/02

1009.023

15.95499468

5600037018

7,355.8

2913.607

1995/03

1019.322

5.725901285

5691934606

7,452.5

2254.719

1995/04

854.383

5.162660412

5962216993

7,542.5

2375.157

1996/01

932.753

14.80059151

5891226773

7,638.2

2027.668

1996/02

1172.174

5.086911584

5955682235

7,800.0

1779.942

1996/03

1098.989

2.891631764

6073486667

7,892.7

2004.378

1996/04

1019.762

3.230151051

6427559423

8,023.0

3373.463

1997/01

1052.148

12.43545244

6152807218

8,137.0

2109.241

1997/02

1365.788

1.563871019

6492761735

8,276.8

2594.518

1997/03

1302.056

1.123550958

6569860091

8,409.9

5594.98

1997/04

1144.854

1.510507696

6898432227

8,505.7

2530.817

1998/01

1176.124

10.59043636

6665227031

8,600.6

2620.8186

1998/02

1463.858

1.414042674

6779735047

8,698.6

3477.683

1998/03

1457.224

1.550286809

6891651789

8,847.2

3295.1097

1998/04

1529.638

3.223963453

7072200643

9,027.5

3313.5336

1999/01

1253.389

11.56379789

6833076833

9,148.6

3525.6642

1999/02

1562.666

0.793891448

6997209329

9,252.6

3395.7421

1999/03

1529.341

0.345943495

7148246491

9,405.1

3018.3991

1999/04

1564.236

0.762120911

7410151130

9,607.7

3929.7862

2000/01

1397.861

8.473298991

7298852761

9,709.5

4520.7958

2000/02

1631.147

-0.123189665

7467037675

9,949.1

4764.975

2000/03

1734.153

-0.130000842

7604284603

10,017.5

3031.3497

2000/04

1809.382

0.660207015

7711444345

10,129.8

5781.0621

2001/01

2010.711

7.022550425

7310622304

10,165.1

3538.7528

2001/02

2280.887

-0.662903584

7424984882

10,301.3

5138.3226

2001/03

2357.981

-0.962910178

7483060755

10,305.2

16268.283

2001/04

2245.684

-0.063343584

7576346882

10,373.1

4828.8116

2002/01

2174.435

6.536769379

7110694282

10,498.7

5008.7086

2002/02

2578.08

-0.63608493

7523677198

10,601.9

6067.5055

2002/03

2552.8111

-0.512402832

7517032580

10,701.7

6087.7807

2002/04

2509.122

0.024322903

7670055408

10,766.9

6472.2487

2003/01

3170.1267

6.634777958

7367050447

10,887.4

3904.4675

2003/02

3904.6473

-1.296168524

7539706233

11,011.6

5426.8043

2003/03

4128.1167

-1.148752452

7535289460

11,255.1

2929.2677

2003/04

3935.7957

-0.067788481

7781167392

11,414.8

4318.073

2004/01

3733.8612

6.992872665

7620258155

11,589.9

9122.7049

2004/02

4968.6377

-1.3293287

7823421276

11,762.9

4052.2383

2004/03

5028.0246

-0.672167033

7871310096

11,936.3

3096.272

2004/04

4601.2245

0.455620164

8133297810

12,123.9

7539.2968

2005/01

4487.5229

6.039053452

7773298608

12,361.8

6287.8145

2005/02

5733.8606

-1.224975725

8117334064

12,500.0

5854.4909

2005/03

5785.514

-1.182860465

8141697897

12,728.6

5295.1793

2005/04

5681.3734

-0.388266472

8424010420

12,901.4

4913.9955